South Africa – Underwhelming Politics, But A Disaster Was Avoided – May 9, 2019



South Africa – Underwhelming Politics, But A Disaster Was Avoided – May 9, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

This week’s elections failed to deliver a convincing enough mandate for President Ramaphosa to carry out root-and-branch structural reforms, and while it is difficult to identify a long term winner, the clear loser is private sector investment and job creation.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – It’s All About The Carry Now – April 25, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Yields on EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have declined dramatically in recent months, in line with the trend in U.S. Treasurys.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Stabilizing Growth, Easy Liquidity – April 16, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

In terms of global liquidity and growth prospects, 2019 is playing out as the reverse of last year: growth is stabilizing and liquidity is plentiful, courtesy of the dovish U-turn.


Emerging Market Equities – A Narrowing Base, But Liquidity Is Forgiving – March 19, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

The case for overweighting emerging markets in a global equity portfolio rests on a narrowing base.


Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.


Emerging Markets – South Africa: The Poster Child For The EM Carry Play – March 1, 2019
Emerging Markets · 

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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Fixed Income Will Outperform – February 14, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

EM local-currency bond yields are highly correlated with U.S. Treasury yields, and as the latter have eased back from early October highs, so have EM yields.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fog Of (Trade) War Is Lifting – February 7, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

EM currencies’ modest revival since October reflects in part their oversold nature after a torrid mid-year selloff last year.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Outperformance Will Continue – December 20, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) has demonstrated extraordinary resilience recently by outperforming U.S. Treasurys in a year buffeted by trade war angst, a purported EM “currency crisis”


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – The Stealth EM Recovery Has (Patchy) Support – December 13, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

EM currencies have mounted a stealth recovery since late September, despite a sharp increase in risk aversion and a strengthening U.S. dollar.


Emerging Market Equities Report – Chinese Catalysts For An EM Rebound – November 21, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This year’s selloff of EM-related assets, overdone as it was, has largely blown… Continue


South Africa – Circles Or Spirals? – October 23, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

It has been a turbulent year for South African financial assets, starting with a euphoric rally after President Ramaphosa’s victory in December 2017, and then giving back earlier gains as investors’ patience broke in the summer.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Limited Growth Risks And Attractive Valuations – October 11, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

After a period of EM local-currency bond underperformance in recent months, investors are increasingly distinguishing between those selected EM assets.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Rebalance For The Rebound – October 4, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

EM currencies have recently decoupled from the U.S. dollar, forming a tentative bottom despite the dollar’s latest spike.


Emerging Market Equities Report – Trade Peace First, Outperformance Next – September 6, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM equities have taken a hit in the last several months and market narratives tend to blame currency weakness in several G20 economies (Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Turkey) and the threat of trade war.


Webcast – EM Currencies’ Trade Tantrum (7min:23sec) – August 8, 2018
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for EM currencies after the last few weeks of investor nervousness towards this asset class.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Where There’s Muck, There’s Brass – August 7, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Three distinct narratives combined earlier this year to buffet EM currencies, albeit on a scale that is rather modest by the standards of 2013’s “Taper Tantrum” and 2014-2015’s commodity price meltdown.


Emerging Markets Equities Report – Love It, Or Leave It – July 12, 2018
Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM equities have decent earnings growth potential and recent selling pressure has restored attractive valuations.


Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Positive Growth Beats Negative Liquidity – June 14, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

There is no imminent threat of an EM debt crisis.


Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.


Emerging Market Equities Report – Not The End, Yet – May 8, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global trade growth has been the single most reliable indicator of EM equity… Continue


South Africa – Ramaphoria, The Rand, And Related Assets – April 24, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

South Africa woke up from the long nightmare of the profoundly corrupt presidency of Jacob Zuma, marked by “state capture”, feeble growth and spiralling public debt, and staged a euphoric rally to welcome President Ramaphosa.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Reassuringly Boring, For Now – April 10, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

When global trade is expanding, accidents rarely occur for EM currencies as a whole.


Emerging Markets Equities Report – Back Up The Truck – March 1, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The case for overweighting EM in a global equity portfolio is straightforward: global trade is expanding on a sustainable basis.


Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue


Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Clearer Skies, Time To Harvest Yield – February 1, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We have been anticipating short-term turbulence for EM local-currency debt (EMLCD), followed by… Continue


Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The High-Wire Act Continues – January 26, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The backdrop remains bond-bearish. Meanwhile, technical and valuation measures are progressively deteriorating for equities, particularly in the U.S.


Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 18, 2018
 · Themes · 

This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.


South Africa – All Gain, No Pain (Yet) – December 21, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · 

The rand has been one of the most popular EM assets in recent weeks as the market forecasted (correctly) that Mr. Ramaphosa would win the ANC leadership race.