Research Highlights



U.S. Commercial Real Estate: Problematic, But Not Lethal – February 20, 2024
Global Trade Is Reviving – February 12, 2024
The 1980s, Only In Reverse – February 5, 2024
Is Fed Policy Restrictive? – January 29, 2024
“No Landing” Ahead – January 22, 2024
Pick One, But Only One – January 16, 2024
An Upbeat Global Outlook: Too Bad It Is Already Discounted – January 8, 2024
Inflation Mistake #2? – December 18, 2023
The Big-Two In 2024 – December 11, 2023
A Maturing Cycle Offers Lots of Risks And Some Opportunities – December 4, 2023
Diverging Monetary Policy Trends in 2024 – November 27, 2023
Don’t Short The U.S. Economy – November 20, 2023
Is Global Trade Set To Revive? – November 13, 2023
Fed Reconsiders R-Star While Market Overstates Future Rate Cuts – November 6, 2023
Global Oil Prices: The Calm Before The Storm? – October 30, 2023
Timing The Endgame Of The DM Tightening Cycle – October 23, 202
Structural Factors Are Bearish For Treasurys – October 16, 2023
The Race Is On: Higher Bond Yields Versus Something “Snapping” – October 9, 2023
Higher For Longer – October 2, 2023
Fed Policy: Forget About A Goldilocks Outcome – September 25, 2023
Losing The Global Bond Anchor – September 18, 2023
Chinese Consumption Growth Is Key – September 11, 2023
Euro Area Households: Still Hoarding Excess Savings – September 5, 2023
The Ever Elusive Global Recession – August 28, 2023
Euro Area: Following The U.S. Roadmap – August 21, 2023
Still Too Soon To Bet On Lower Global Rates And Bond Yields – August 14, 2023
The Fed Is Hoping Against History – August 7, 2023
Will The Return Of Inflation End Asset Bubbles? – July 31, 2023
A.I.: Over-Hyped, Or A Game Changer? – July 24, 2023
The Coming End To Easy Year-On-Year Inflation Comparisons – July 17, 2023
Bond Market Complacency Will Unwind – July 10, 2023
U.K. Pound: Between A Rock And A Hard Place – July 3, 2023
Large Companies Still Want To Hire – June 26, 2023
U.S. Economic Resilience Forces Up The Terminal Rate – June 20, 2023
Resuming The Tightening Cycle – June 12, 2023
Global Equities: First It Was Valuations, Then Earnings, What’s Left? – June 5, 2023
The Irony Of The Inverted U.S. Yield Curve – May 30, 2023
The Next U.S. Recession: Waiting For Godot? – May 15, 2023
Global Stocks Should Outperform Bonds, If… – May 8, 2023
Sentiment Indicators Driving U.S. Deterioration – May 1, 2023
The Implosion In U.S. M2: Less To It Than Meets The Eye – April 24, 2023
The Rotation Theme Out Of The U.S. Has More Room To Run – April 17, 2023
Corporate Earnings Are Holding – April 10, 2023
More Dominos To Fall – April 3, 2023
Sticky Inflation And Strong Labor Demand Versus Banking Worries – March 27, 2023
Policy Normalization Will Continue To Cause Pain – March 20, 2023
U.S. Banks: Another 2008? – March 13, 2023
Equity De-Rating: Round 2? – March 6, 2023
Still Lots Of Economic Firepower – February 27, 2023
U.S. Inflation: Heading Down, But Far from Out – February 21, 2023
Monetary Conditions Have Tightened, But No Knock-Out Blow – February 13, 2023
The Rotation Out Of The U.S. Equity Market Has Further To Run – February 6, 2023
Heading Towards A Recession? Maybe Not – January 30, 2023
Euro Area Stock Rally Will Run Long – January 23, 2023
U.S. Inflation: Enjoy The Deceleration, But The Cycle Isn’t Over – January 16, 2023
Global Equities: Changing Of The Guard – January 9, 2023
Another Challenging Year Ahead, But There Will Be Opportunities – January 3, 2023
Playing A Maturing Business Cycle – December 19, 2022
Profiting From Lagging Policy And Investor Sentiment At Secular Turning Points – December 12, 2022
The Cycle Is Maturing, But Still A Challenging Outlook – December 5, 2022
The Euro Area’s Time To Shine – November 28, 2022
Long-term Returns: A More Challenging Investment Climate – November 21, 2022
Tactical Long And Short Opportunities – November 14, 2022
Bond Yields Rising And Complacency About Long Term Inflation – November 7, 2022
Pairing The Euro Area Against A Weak Link – October 31, 2022
Overdue For Some Good News? – October 24, 2022
Is It Time To Buy German Bunds? – October 17, 2022
Can The Economic Cliff Be Avoided? – October 10, 2022
Global Government Bonds: The Best Value In A Decade, But… – October 3, 2022
First The U.K., Is Canada Next? – September 26, 2022
Bond Investors: Wishing They Had Ignored The Fed – September 19, 2022
Chinese Credit And Consumption Growth Collide – September 12, 2022
U.S. Corporate Profits: Wow, But It Will Get Tougher From Here – September 6, 2022
Fed Policy Does Not Add Up – August 29, 2022
Global Inflation: Out Of Hibernation – August 22, 2022
U.S. Inflation: Only A Pause In The Cyclical Uptrend – August 15, 2022
Global Equities: First It Was Valuations, Now It Is Earnings – August 8, 2022
Time To Be Tactical – August 1, 2022
Implications Of An End To Deleveraging – July 25, 2022
U.S. Recession Bets: Still Premature – July 18, 2022
Fear Breeds Opportunity – July 11, 2022
Elevated Anxiety – July 5, 2022
Canada: Monitoring A Global Economic Weak Link – June 27, 2022
Financial Assets Are Hostage To A Central Bank Pivot – June 20, 2022
Bonds Are Still Not Cheap – June 13, 2022
Oversold Bounces, But The Cycle Has Further To Run – June 6, 2022
Government Bonds: A Decade Of No Real Returns – May 31, 2022
Investment Cycles: Shorter And Less Profitable – May 23, 2022
U.S. Inflation: A Reprieve For Bonds? – May 16, 2022
A Challenging Backdrop – May 9, 2022
Extraordinary Times – May 2, 2022
Unwinding The Valuation Distortion In Government Bonds – April 25, 2022
U.S. Goods Inflation To Cool, But Watch Out For Service Sector Inflation – April 18, 2022
Will The Fed Tighten Too Much? – April 11, 2022
The U.S. Yield Curve: Bullish Or Bearish For Growth? – April 4, 2022
Unwinding A Huge Distortion – March 28, 2022
U.S. Rate-Hiking Cycle: Longer And Higher – March 21, 2022
Looking Beyond The War – March 14, 2022
No Place To Hide – March 7, 2022
Is The European Economic Recovery In Jeopardy? – February 28, 2022
The Coming Clash Between Elevated U.S. Debt Levels And Higher Interest Rates – February 22, 2022
The ECB’s Hawkish Pivot – February 7, 2022
Powell Pivot: Part II – January 31, 2022
Global Financials: Winners From The Rotation In Equity Leadership – January 24, 2022
Global Equities And Fed Rate Cycles – January 18, 2022
A Bumpy Start, To An Expected Bumpy Year – January 10, 2022
Re-Syncing The Global Economy, Policy And Financial Markets – December 20, 2021
U.S. Yield Curve: Ominous Warning, Or A Sign Of Complacency? – December 13, 2021
Looming Bond Weakness Versus Corporate Earnings Support – December 6, 2021
A Different Decade – November 29, 2021
Time To Turn Tactical – November 22, 2021
Still Lots Of Upside In Treasury Yields – November 15, 2021
Continue To Favor Stocks Over Bonds – November 8, 2021
Not So Transitory – November 1, 2021
Goodbye To The 2010s – October 25, 2021
U.S. Treasurys: Poor Value Even With A Dovish Fed – October 18, 2021
Equity Air Pockets – October 4, 2021
The End Of Hyper-Accommodative Monetary Policy – September 27, 2021
The Euro Area: Fade The Secular Stagnation Narrative – September 20, 2021
Once Again Investors Are Misreading China – September 13, 2021
Important Shifts In The Macro Climate – September 7, 2021
Beware The “Fiscal Cliffers” – August 30, 2021
We Disagree With The Consensus On Inflation and Debt Burdens (and on U.K. Equities) – August 23, 2021
Economic Headwinds Turn Into Tailwinds – August 16, 2021
Lagging At The Major Turning Points – August 9, 2021
Global Equities: Peak Growth, Not Peak Earnings – July 26, 2021
Repeating The BoJ Mistake Of The 1980s – July 19, 2021
Don’t Short China – July 12, 2021
Bumps During Expansions Are Typical – July 6, 2021
The Long-Term Investment Outlook: Lower Your Expectations – June 28, 2021
The Fed Takes Its First (Tiny) Step – June 21, 2021
The U.S. Faces The Largest Burden From The Global Minimum Tax – June 14, 2021
U.S. Inflation: Will Higher Lows Translate Into Higher Highs? – June 7, 2021
The Fed Puts Itself Into A Corner – June 1, 2021
U.S. Housing Market: A Bumpy, But Still Bullish Outlook – May 24, 2021
Heading Towards Another Taper-Tantrum – May 17, 2021
The Punchbowl Is Fully Spiked – May 10, 2021
The Euro Area’s Time To Shine – May 3, 2021
U.S. Inflation Is Headed Higher – April 26, 2021
Financials And Tech Will Be Key Drivers Of Style Performance – April 19, 2021
China Remains One Of The Key Global Growth Engines – April 12, 2021
The Fundamentals Are Positive, But Mostly Discounted – April 5, 2021
Focussing On Longer-Term Investment Strategy – March 29, 2021
The Fed Versus The Treasury Market – March 22, 2021
Should Equity Investors Fear A De-Rating Phase? – March 15, 2021
Will The Bond Bear Maul The Equity Bull? – March 8, 2021
U.S. Tech Stocks: Gathering Headwinds – March 1, 2021
U.S. Fiscal Policy: Too Much Of A Good Thing? – February 22, 2021
First The U.S., Then The U.K. And Germany – February 16, 2021
Global Equities: Economic Growth Needs To Boom – February 8, 2021
U.S. And China: The Two Global Equity Elephants – February 1, 2021
U.S. Bank Stocks: Has Godot Finally Arrived? – January 25, 2021
Treasury Yields: Ride The Waves – January 18, 2021
The Beginning Or End: The Capital Markets Versus The Economic Cycle – January 11, 2021
Lots Of Uncertainty, But Also Lots Of Opportunity – December 28, 2020
A Surprisingly Good Year: Let’s Do It Again? – December 21, 2020
Inflation Is Dead, Or Is It? – December 14, 2020
Fixed Income: A Potential Disruptor In 2021? – December 7, 2020
Oil Demand Is Recovering, But Supply Will Remain The Swing Factor – November 30, 2020
The Great Rotation: Are You Positioned? – November 23, 2020
The End Of The U.S. Dollar Era – November 16, 2020
In The End, The Economy Dominates – November 9, 2020
Tactical To Secular Investment Opportunities – November 2, 2020
U.S. Growth Stocks: Late Innings – October 26, 2020
Trump Versus Biden – October 19, 2020
Layoffs: Temporary Or Permanent? – October 13, 2020
Consolidation Continues – October 5, 2020
Time To Rotate Out Of U.S. Stocks? – September 28, 2020
A Peculiar Deflation Scare – September 21, 2020
Seeking Out New Investment Ideas – September 14, 2020
Not So Strong Under The Surface – September 8, 2020
The Great Rotation: Part II – August 31, 2020
Can Global Stocks And Corporate Earnings Stay Decoupled? – August 24, 2020
Could Inflation Blindside The Bond Market? – August 17, 2020
Global Equities: Not As Healthy As They Appear – August 10, 2020
The U.S. Dollar And Equities: The End Of An Era? – August 3, 2020
The U.S. Economy: From Positive To Negative Surprises – July 27, 2020
Two Big Potential Threats, Or Not – July 20, 2020
Diverging Trends – July 13, 2020
A High Bar To Hurdle – July 6, 2020
Playing The Waves – June 29, 2020
Time-Up For U.S. Equity Outperformance? – June 22, 2020
Monetary Policy Is Working – June 8, 2020
Long-Term Investors: Lower Your Expectations – June 1, 2020
The World Reopens: Will It Work? – May 26, 2020
Beyond The Near Term – May 18, 2020
Don’t Overpay For Growth Stocks – May 11, 2020
Another Bout Of Risk-Off? – April 4, 2020
MRB Stylized Investment Cycle – April 27, 2020
Prepare For A Bumpy Re-Start – April 20, 2020
COVID-19: From Asia To NYC – April 13, 2020
Equity Bear Markets: When To Buy? – April 6, 2020
Necessary, But Not Sufficient – March 30, 2020
Lessons from the past – March 23, 2020
Escalating On All Fronts – March 13, 2020
China: First The Virus, Now The PMIs – March 9, 2020
This Too Shall Pass (Eventually) – March 2, 2020
Bracing For Bad Economic News – February 24, 2020
It Never Ends Well – February 18, 2020
Coronavirus: Tracking The Recovery Rate – February 10, 2020
Global Equities Hit An Air Pocket – February 3, 2020
Is The Party Ending? – January 27, 2020
Beware The Risk That Is Being Ignored – January 21, 2020
Getting Ahead Of The Fundamentals – January 13, 2020
So Go Earnings, So Go Stock Prices – December 23, 2019
Be Careful What You Wish For – December 16, 2019
U.S. Credit Cycle: Late Stages, But Not Yet Over – December 9, 2019
U.S. Consumers Vs. Manufacturers – December 2, 2019
Global Trade: At A Turning Point? – November 25, 2019
The U.S. Yield Curve Un-Inverts: A False Alarm – November 18, 2019
Front-Running A Turn In Manufacturing – November 11, 2019
Recession Concerns Ease, But… – November 4, 2019
Tougher Times For Investors Ahead – October 28, 2019
Brexit: Not The Only Headwind For The U.K. – October 21, 2019
Nixon Or Clinton? – October 14, 2019
U.S. Housing: No Recession Here – October 7, 2019
Services Versus Manufacturing – September 30, 2019
Ignoring The DOTs Will Prove Costly – September 23, 2019
Weaker Global Trade: Get Used To It – September 16, 2019
Beware The Forecasting Ability Of The Bond Market – September 9, 2019
Still Waiting For A Catalyst – September 3, 2019
Will Trump’s Trade War Cost Him Re-Election? – August 26, 2019
Yield Curve Inversion: A Red Herring – August 19, 2019
The Weaker Yuan: By Design Or Default? – August 12, 2019
Asset Allocation: Protecting Against An Equity Bear Market – August 5, 2019
Finding Shelters From The Next Storm – July 29, 2019
The Race To The White House – July 22, 2019
Does The World Need More Monetary Stimulus? – July 15, 2019
Fixed-Income Markets: On A Roll, But Slim Pickings Ahead – July 9, 2019
Low Bond Yields Favors Growth Stocks (And The U.S.) – July 2, 2019
The Fed U-Turn: Another Policy Mistake? – June 24, 2019
Can The Fed Stop The Trade Dominoes From Causing The Next Recession? – June 17, 2019
Is Yield Curve Inversion A 1998-Style False Positive? – June 10, 2019
An Update On MRB’s Roadmap – June 3, 2019
The Next Ten Years: Tougher Times Ahead – May 28, 2019
Protectionism Is A Losing Game -May 20, 2019
Bull Markets Do Not Die Of Old Age – May 13, 2019
The Outlook Is Still Positive, But More Challenging – May 6, 2019
Is Inflation Really Dead? – April 29, 2019
China Turns The Corner – April 22, 2019
U.S. Equities: Superior Profits, But Relatively Expensive – April 15, 2019
Still Room For Credit Spreads To Narrow – April 8, 2019
Beware Of Bearish Yield Curve Interpretations – April 1, 2019
Time To Discount Lower U.S. Fed Funds Rates? – March 25, 2019
The Next Recession: Still Waiting For Godot – March 18, 2019
Taking A Look At The Long Term – March 11, 2019
Warming Up To China Plays – March 4, 2019
The Euro Area: The Bar Is Now Very Low – February 25, 2019
How Will The U.S. Finance Its Deficits? – February 19, 2019
Warming Up On Emerging Markets – February 11, 2019
Late-Cycle Relief From The Fed – February 4, 2019
Major Changes In The Secular Backdrop – January 28, 2019
Prospective Equity Returns For 2019 – January 21, 2019
Investors Are Ignoring Some Important Risks – January 14, 2019
Discounting A Recession – January 7, 2019
A Better Year Ahead? – December 17, 2018
Priced For Recession – December 10, 2018
Pulling Back From The Brink – December 3, 2018
A Change In Equity Leadership – November 26, 2018
Treasurys: Time To Digest – November 19, 2018
  • All Research Highlights