MRB TradeBook Update – October 8, 2021


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MRB TradeBook Update – October 8, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.



 

Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Strategy For Resilient Global Growth – September 16, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights that our overarching macro view remains unchanged as we expect the global economy to surprise on the upside over the next year even as growth and trade moderate.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – September 10, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Equities – Upgrade Japan To Neutral – September 10, 2021
Equities · 

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Foreign Exchange – Swiss Franc & Yen: Defensive Non-USD Insurance – August 31, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Angst about a potential setback in reopening due to the COVID-19 Delta variant is causing investors to question the global economic outlook.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.



 

Equities – Japan Is Likely To Remain Out Of Favor Among Global Investors – August 27, 2021
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.



 

Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
 · Themes · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.



 

Equities – Global Earnings: Catch Up Or Stick With Mo? – July 30, 2021
Equities · 

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Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.



 

Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
 · Themes · 

This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.



 

Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
 · Equities · 

The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.



 

Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.



 

Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return · 

The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.