MacroResearchBoard

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themes

Theme – Secular Equity Bull Market: Is There More Upside? – October 21, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

Most investment strategy is focused on the cyclical trend in asset prices (i.e. the swings within a single economic or business cycle).

U.S. Election – What To Expect From A Biden Or Trump Victory – October 13, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The U.S. elections on November 3 could bring significant changes to fiscal policy and the economy in the next four years, with important implications for capital markets.

Policy – U.S. Economy: The Danger Of Premature Austerity – September 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The aftermath of the Great Recession highlights the dangers of enacting premature fiscal austerity.

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle: Did Policymakers Avoid A Final Flush? – August 20, 2020
 · Themes · 

MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks as it provides a starting point when building a multi-year roadmap, and helps investors look for major inflection points.

Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.

Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.

Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.

U.S. – Labor Market: Examining The Damage, And What’s Next – May 19, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Research Reports · 

Dislocations to economic activity caused by COVID-19 have caused an unprecedented deterioration in the U.S. labor market, with standard measures like the unemployment rate understating the true extent of the damage.

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
 · Themes · 

This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.

Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.

Theme – The Great Halt Of 2020 – April 23, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report compares the current economic fallout with the previous and concludes that another Great Recession is very unlikely.

Equities – A Century Of Bear Bottoms – April 2, 2020
 · Equities · Themes · 

Every equity bear market has unique attributes, including the root cause of the earnings downturn and the required policy response.

COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.

Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part V): Growth Stocks – February 11, 2020
 · Equities · Themes · 

This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias, and focuses on growth stocks.

Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part IV): Regional Housing & Related Equities – January 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part III): Commodities & Global Luxury – December 10, 2019
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias and focuses on… Continue

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part II): Yield Plays – December 3, 2019
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.

U.S. – Elections 2020: Impeachment And The Markets – October 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

It is unclear how the House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry into President Trump will evolve, although it is ramping up rapidly.

Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook

Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.

Policy – U.S. Politics 2020: Democratic Disruptors Or Stabilizers? – July 18, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Despite President Trump’s low approval ratings, the Democrats face an uphill battle in winning the presidential election in 2020 given the healthy economy and the power of incumbency.

Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.

Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.

Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
 · Themes · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.