Swingers Will Pick The Next U.S. President – April 29, 2024

A just published report noted that this year’s U.S. presidential election will be decided by a handful of “swing states” that are currently viewed as “toss ups” given their recent election history, demographics and political orientation.

The election will be unusual in many ways, with the outcome driven by the extreme polarization of the American electorate, the unique character of former President Trump, and the determining sway of a handful of “swing” states. While any number of issues could be factors for many voters, the economy, both at the national and state level, will weigh heavily. Our report examined economic conditions in the swing states as they should provide insight into the likely election outcome.

The U.S.’ solid economic growth and strong job market would normally favor the incumbent Mr. Biden, but is offset by still-high inflation, particularly compared with the Trump years. Moreover, the budding upturn in U.S. manufacturing should boost Biden’s chances in the crucial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the persistence of sticky inflation would boost Trump.

Net: It is too early to position portfolios for the election outcome. Moreover, the political power of either president will be contingent on whether their party also controls both houses of Congress. The election outcome in the latter is also too close to call at this juncture.


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