Prospective Equity Returns For 2019 – January 21, 2019

Prospective Equity Returns For 2019

Over the past week, our research team has focused on the outlook for U.S. and global equities from various perspectives. Critically, given the steep price decline in late-2018, the call comes down to whether a recession and profit contraction occur in the next 6-12 months.

We examined prospective equity total returns under the three most probable scenarios: renewed economic vigor, economic mush and a recession. Since we foresee relatively low odds of a recession, we remain contractive in our investment strategy, and recommend nibbling in favored sectors and regional markets.

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