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MRB on WP – March 10, 2020

Phillip Colmar, global macro strategist and managing partner at research firm MRB Partners, told WP that though a global recession driven by the coronavirus outbreak is “a non-trivial risk,” it’s not in the firm’s base case. He thinks that allegories to the 2008 financial crisis are largely misplaced. Colmar shared the equities he thinks will win out in this market, as well as the moves policymakers can make to re-start equity growth.

“I know the bond markets coming off that kind of fear are priced for a deep recession, a deflationary shock,” Colmar told WP. “But I just can’t come up with the numbers that make that make sense.”

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MRB on Xinhuanet – March 8, 2020

EW YORK, March 7 (Xinhua) — The outbreak of novel coronavirus is going to cause “a lot more volatility” in the U.S. financial markets in the coming days, said a senior strategist with macroeconomic research body MRB Partners on Friday.

Investors could not fully assess the impact of COVID-19 on the United States as infections have been underreported due to a lack of testing and the health care sector has not provided credible solutions, said Phillip Colmar, managing partner on global strategy with MRB Partners.

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MRB on Fortune – March 6, 2020

“The outlook is uncertain, or rather certainly bearish in the near term as quarantining spreads around the world, but with considerable doubt as to the duration and depth of the economic fallout,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – March 5, 2020

Investors’ risk appetite will be rekindled and they will again seek higher yielding bonds as investors recalibrate their assessment of growth prospects in 2020, said MRB Partners.

“In our view, they will conclude that while the immediate impact on Q1 (quarter 1) and possibly Q2 (quarter 2) is negative, there is no risk of global recession in 2020,” said MRB Partners, citing positive developments in the fight against the novel coronavirus in China.

Low yields and interest rates, as well as dovish central banks in developed economies will “push” investors to seek better portfolio returns, noted MRB Partners.

Researchers with MRB Partners told Xinhua that the beneficiaries of this rotation will be high-yield segments in developed markets as well as emerging market bonds in general, in particular the highest yielder.

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MRB on CNBC – March 1, 2020

“Global investors will be prone to panic as the virus arrives at their doorstep, underscoring the need for near-run prudence and patience before augmenting favored holdings,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. “The outlook is uncertain, or rather certainly bearish in the near term as quarantining spreads around the world, but with considerable doubt as to the duration and depth of the economic fallout.”

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MRB on Xinhuanet.com – February 25, 2020

Analysts from MRB Partners said they do not expect the global economy to stumble into recession, but cautioned investors to “be prepared for a volatile, and periodically difficult, next few months.”

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MRB on CNBC – December 11, 2019

“At the margin, the employment report is likely to reinforce the Fed’s message that the policy rate will remain steady for the foreseeable future, barring future trade policy shocks,” said Prajakta Bhide, strategist at MRB Partners. “Unless the trade policy environment worsens meaningfully, we expect that Fed policy will likely remain on hold until after the elections next November.”

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MRB on CNBC – October 21, 2019

“A credible and sizable positive trade announcement could expedite a turn for the better, although there is no sign of such an outcome,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. “There is considerable uncertainty on many fronts, including weak global trade and manufacturing activity, a generally protectionist trade backdrop, and many domestic and international political hotspots.”

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MRB on Xinhuanet.com – September 30, 2019

“Having been equity bulls for most of the decade, we are currently neutral,” said international investment advisory firm MRB Partners Inc. in a research note on Friday.

MRB said it would return to an overweight if political risks ebb and manufacturing activity firms up. Conversely, it would de-risk if the service and consumer sectors look to join the manufacturing sector on the downside.

MRB warned that instability and uncertainty from political backdrop is prolonging the sluggishness of global trade and could ultimately undermine economic risk-taking and eventually end the cycle.

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MRB on CNBC – September 23, 2019

“Trade wars and isolationist policies pose a major threat heading forward, and are being fueled in part by the reduction in global trade and manufacturing jobs,” said Phillip Colmar, partner at MRB Partners, in a note. “So far, the direct impact has been modest, but the indirect impact on manufacturing sentiment and activity has been meaningful given the starting point of subdued global export demand.”

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MRB on CNBC – August 28, 2019

MRB Partners strategist Prajakta Bhide thinks recessionary fears may be overblown. “The yield curve’s inversion this year is a symptom of external growth stress and powerful distortions in global bond yields and does not reflect restrictive Fed policy,” she said in a note. “Thus, it does not warrant a bearish economic interpretation.”

“Even if the inverted yield curve captures investor’s uncertainty about worsening global growth … a balanced perspective would still suggest that the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are no higher than 20%,” Bhide added.

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MRB on abc – August 20, 2019

In a recent interview, Yan Arsenault from Trust Point provided some perspective on the next global recession, using The Global Trade Dominoes chart from MRB Partners. He outlined how a trade war could cause a recession but noted that it will not be as deep or long as the 2008-2009 fallout.

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MRB on CNBC – July 19, 2019

“Gold is often thought of as an inflation hedge, yet the two have not been correlated over the past 20 years,” Phillip Colmar, founding partner at MRB Partners, said in a note earlier this month. “Instead, gold thrives and core consumer price inflation tends to rise in an environment where policymakers are deliberately and persistently keeping policy rates and bond yields anchored below nominal GDP growth (i.e. fueling growth and inflation with an easy policy), which was the case of the 1960s and 1970s.”

Colmar added we view the recent rise in gold prices as a market-based signal that central banks are providing more reflation (via lower interest rates and bond yields) than is currently necessary to support the global economy.”

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MRB on Expresso Portugal – July 19, 2019

Phillip Colmar, estratego da consultora britânica MRB, sublinha que, nos casos da Austrália, Canadá e Reino Unido, a situação ultimamente “suavizou-se notavelmente”. O efeito temporário da queda dos juros “adiou um pouco o dia do acerto de contas”

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MRB Partnership With Clarien Bank Limited – June 24, 2019

Clarien Investments has partnered with MRB Partners for over 5 years with great results for clients. Watch Phillip Colmar from MRB Partners, speaking about Geopolitical tensions and social unrest which are higher than ever due to the rise of populism and income inequality.

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MRB on The Royal Gazette (Bermuda) – June 24, 2019

Mr Colmar was speaking a day after an invitation-only presentation, “A Persistent Undercurrent of Political Instability”, for Clarien Investments Ltd clients at the Bermuda National Gallery. In demand worldwide, Mr Colmar has visited clients in Latin America, Europe, Asia, and South Africa in the last month alone. He has a BA in economics, a BBA (finance) from Bishop’s University in Montreal, and a MSc (finance) from Queen’s University in Ontario.

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MRB on CNBC – June 1, 2019

Salvatore Ruscitti, U.S. equity strategist at MRB Partners, notes investors should remain cautious on semiconductors given their high exposure to China.

“Chip stocks will remain vulnerable until U.S./China trade negotiations improve. We recommend staying on the sidelines with a neutral stance,” he wrote in a note Thursday. “A further significant escalation in the U.S./China trade dispute that restricts access to the fast-growing Chinese market would represent a significant threat to the longer-term prospects of the semiconductor industry and warrant a downgrade of the sub-group to underweight.”

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MRB on Expresso Portugal – March 16, 2019

Monetary policy is rendered somewhat impotent in economies that are deleveraging. This is because the supply and demand for credit are being influenced by something other than merely the cost of capital. Monetary policy can help slow deleveraging drags, but fiscal stimulus is often necessary to providing an offset and encourage a sustained economic expansion. This has been lacking in the euro area, which is why economic growth is subdued and prone to downside risks. A great deal of progress has been made in terms of balance sheet repair which makes the region more resilient than earlier this decade and more so than investors expect. Nonetheless, a fiscal offset would be helpful, at least until the deleveraging cycle runs its course.

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MRB on CNBC – March 8, 2019

“A pullback in risk assets was needed, but underlying technical and fundamental conditions are positive,” Peter Perkins, partner at MRB Partners, wrote in a note to clients. “The global growth outlook remains mixed, but there are signs that economic growth momentum in China and the euro area is bottoming, while the U.S. economy continues to chug along at a moderately above-potential pace.”

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MRB on CNBC – January 24, 2019

“Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months,” strategists at MRB Partners said in a note. “Nevertheless, the macro backdrop is sufficiently positive, and likely to remain so, to suggest that no worse than a digestion phase or mild correction will be necessary to better align equity prices with the slow-moving uptrend in earnings.”

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