Articles

MRB on Bloomberg – May 5, 2023

“The wild card or caveat is always that banking systems are built or based on the trust of depositors. If that trust or confidence is questioned (potentially due to negative news headlines or sharp declines in share prices), a panic or frenzy can unfold where people start pulling their deposits at otherwise solid banks.”

After a volatile week for bank stocks, MRB Partners’ global strategist Phillip Colmar discussed several factors that impact deposits in reporter Emily Graffeo’s Bloomberg article.

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MRB on BizNews – December 7, 2022

The strategy is especially relevant in today’s market environment of global supply shocks in food and energy, excessive inflation, surging interest rates and bond yields and the increasing risk of recession. In an MRB Partners report titled “Dividends pay dividends in tough times” (July 26, 2022), Peter Perkins writes that “Dividends are more stable than earnings and provide a buffer for equities during periods of weakening global economic growth…

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MRB on BizNews – November 24, 2022

MRB Partners states that “Euro area households, businesses and banks are in solid shape which provides a much greater foundation than a decade ago.” As a result, it forecasts the Eurozone will grow at a faster pace in the next decade than the last, with annual growth picking up from 0.9% from 2011-2021 to around 1.5%.

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MRB on CNBC – August 2, 2022

“After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices,” MRB said in a note Tuesday.

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MRB on China.org.cn – December 1, 2021

World oil demand growth in 2022 will remain strong, but supply will likely rise to meet it, said Mehran Nakhjavani, a partner of emerging markets with the MRB Partners on Tuesday.

Oil prices are more likely to return to a range of 60 dollars to 70 dollars per barrel next year, rather than to rise further from current elevated levels, said Nakhjavani in a research note.

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MRB on Coindesk – November 16, 2021

“The crypto space has now become mildly overbought,” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, an investment research firm, said during an interview with CoinDesk. The chart below shows MRB’s cyclical momentum indicator, which has risen from oversold levels over the past month.

Espinosa said that risk-taking in cryptocurrencies has been heavily incentivized by extreme monetary and fiscal stimulus. This could mean cryptocurrencies have further room to rise and eventually reach extreme overbought levels.

For now, “I believe that until real interest rates become restrictive, the recent rally in this speculative space has legs,” Espinosa said.

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MRB on Coindesk – October 1, 2021

“The challenge for this speculative space is there remain too many macro headwinds to be resolved,” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, said in an interview with CoinDesk.

Espinosa said the global regulatory crackdown is still evolving. Outside of China, U.S. and European authorities may enact stricter measures that could handicap crypto prices by making it harder for users to exchange crypto for fiat currencies, according to Espinosa.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – September 25, 2021

The MRB Partners on Thursday confirmed an overweight rating on Chinese stocks within an emerging market and global equity portfolio within the next six to 12 months, said Mehran Nakhjavani, a partner of emerging markets with the MRB Partners.

The confirmation is based on domestic investor positioning support, oversold conditions and likely policy announcements that will provide monetary and fiscal policy cushions, Nakhjavani said.

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MRB on Yahoo! Finance – August 20, 2021

Several analysts noted that extreme overbought conditions have unwound since April, which is providing support for the crypto rally.

“Right now, bitcoin and other cryptos have enjoyed technical support (as they were becoming mildly oversold),” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, wrote in an email to CoinDesk.

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MRB on Coindesk – July 21, 2021

Another source of selling pressure across risk assets could be the reduction of government stimulus. “Too much stimulus breeds complacency,” MRB Partners wrote in a research note published on Friday.

MRB also noted widespread asset price inflation, which can lead to market imbalances similar to an episode in Japan in the 1980s that preceded a decade of low investment returns.

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MRB on Shine – July 15, 2021

China will continue to be a major contributor to global trade growth in the year ahead thanks to continued strength in the country’s domestic demand and import demand driven by robust export orders, Mehran Nakhjavani, partner of emerging markets with research firm MRB Partners, said in a recent note.

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MRB on Coindesk – June 23, 2021

“Any evidence that easy money is ending with a more hawkish stance by central banks will likely be a drag for speculative assets,” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, wrote in an email.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – June 18, 2021

“Based on the past two bitcoin cycles it suggests that the pandemic-induced crypto bull market may have come to an end, as this digital space is undergoing an unwinding of overbought price conditions,” said Santiago Espinosa, strategist of absolute return and foreign exchange with MRB Partners.

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MRB on Asian Private Banker – June 10, 2021

“Inflation will not be as ‘transitory’ as many investors believe, or the Fed hopes will be the case,” cautioned Phillip Colmar, global macro strategist at The Macro Research Board, a US-based independent global top-down research
firm.

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MRB on Coindesk – June 7, 2021

“Crypto is seen as a way of hedging against political turmoil, but it will need to reach critical mass. El Salvador’s move is unlikely to counter China’s given its relative size,” Santiago Espinosa, strategist at the independent investment research firm MRB, said in an interview.

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MRB on Kryptomoney – June 4, 2021

Thus, the question remains if this is the end of the Bitcoin-driven rally since the past year? New York-based MRB Partners, a boutique investment research firm believe that the rally in Bitcoin (BTC) since the previous year may be coming to an end.

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MRB on Coindesk – June 3, 2021

The rally in bitcoin (BTC) over the past year may be nearing an end, according to New York-based MRB Partners, a boutique investment research firm.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – March 21, 2021

U.S. cyclical sectors like energy, financials, industrials and materials have led the market higher since early November 2020 when positive vaccine news began to trickle out, said research firm MRB Partners on Friday.

MRB Partners said it expects cyclical sectors to continue to exert market leadership in the year ahead given the prospects of strong economic rebound once a large share of the population is inoculated.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – March 12, 2021

U.S. real GDP will grow at over 7.5 percent in 2021 by using a fairly conservative assumption regarding the size of the fiscal multiplier, said Prajakta Bhide, U.S. economy and policy strategist with MRB Partners, a New York-based private research firm, on Thursday.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – January 27, 2021

Such policies should be designed to reduce perceived downside risk to euro and the process will likely be gradual, said Peter Perkins, global strategist at MRB Partners on Tuesday.

“The main barriers are simply the absence of a unified banking or financial system across countries and the lack of political cohesion among the euro area member countries,” said Perkins.

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MRB on Money Morning – November 17, 2020

Here’s the funny thing: Economists can’t really agree on why it’s happening. It’s been the “upside surprise” of this pandemic year. MRB Partners’ Prajakta Bhide said it best: “It’s very unusual in a recession and needs to be further examined.”

The data Bhide shared seem to point to a boom that’s being driven by affluent buyers who’ve held onto their jobs during the pandemic wave of unemployment. The numbers point to big growth in the mid- to high-end housing tier, not so much in the “entry level” market, which hasn’t done as well.

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MRB on MPA – November 16, 2020

Prajakta Bhide said this is “very, very unusual in a recession and needs to be further examined.” The US Economy strategist at MacroResearchBoard (MRB) Partners said that the centrality of housing to the wider US economy usually means that when housing does well, the whole US economy is doing well.

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MRB on CNBC – November 12, 2020

Phillip Colmar, partner at MRB Partners, wrote in a note that the global economic recovery “will be sustained, but the V-shaped portion is over, and we have already transitioned to a slower pace of two-steps forward and one back.”

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MRB on ETF Trends – November 2, 2020

“Massive policy stimulus, positive medical developments and high hopes for a return to pre-pandemic economic activity levels have provided a solid boost to equity markets,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. “However, mounting new economic restrictions, particularly in Europe, despite being forecastable and in lagged response to the re-acceleration in COVID-19 infections, only caught investors’ attention this week, triggering sharp losses.”

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MRB on CNBC – October 21, 2020

“With no clear end to the pandemic in sight, the economy needs additional fiscal support that will last for several months,” Prajakta Bhide, a strategist at MRB Partners, said in a note. “The passing of a sizeable additional fiscal stimulus by the beginning of next year, and better control over the COVID-19 pandemic next year via the timely approval of a medical solution will be essential to ensure continued economic growth next year.”

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MRB on Xinhuanet – September 18, 2020

In an increasingly multi-polar world economy, the primary strategic objective of any multinational corporation is to maintain a strong and competitive presence in each of the major economies like the United States, the EU, China and others in order to maintain market share, supply chains and regulatory approvals in each economic zone, said Nakhjavani.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – July 23, 2020

Data in June “confirms that Chinese economic activity has recovered from its early-year swoon and is growing at, or slightly above, its trend growth rate,” said Nakhjavani, adding that pockets of weakness linger in exports and some elements of consumer spending.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – July 16, 2020

Mehran Nakhjavani, emerging markets strategist at research firm MRB Partners, told Xinhua that China’s economic readings for May and June have recovered, and “we see this pace continuing in the second half of the year.”

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MRB on WP – July 7, 2020

The report “Canada on thin ice as it heats up” by Macro Research Board (MRB) Partners paints a bleak picture. It says that Canada has followed global trends in falling into a ‘sudden stop’ recession with high unemployment and a plunge in activity. It says that Canada is more exposed than most economies, however, because of “an unstable real estate bubble and household credit binge.” MRB’s founding partner Phillip Colmar told WP that Canada is due for a deleveraging cycle after years of a consumer credit ‘binge’ with widespread ramifications for Canadian equity markets and Canadian investors.

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MRB on Mortgage Brokernews.ca – July 5, 2020

The report “Canada on thin ice as it heats up” by Macro Research Board (MRB) partners paints a bleak picture. The report says that Canada has followed global trends in falling into a ‘sudden stop’ recession with high unemployment and a plunge in activity. It says that Canada is more exposed than most economies, however, because of “an unstable real estate bubble and household credit binge.” It says policymakers are putting off the day of reckoning but have run out of ammunition and there is no guarantee they can prevent a housing bust. The report says such a correction will have long-term positive effects in creating more caution among Canadian consumers, the short to medium term will be a rocky road to recovery.

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MRB on CNBC – May 15, 2020

“The Covid-19 pandemic has reinforced the essential role that technology plays for businesses and consumers and stoked expectations that the recession could see many of the largest growth companies become even more dominant,” Salvatore Ruscitti, U.S. equities strategist at MRB Partners, told CNBC earlier this week.

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MRB on International Business Times – May 5, 202

Despite the strong stock performance in April, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa, strategists at MRB Partners, urged caution.

“The sharp relief rally in equities has now moved ahead of underlying fundamentals, leaving room for near-term disappointments,” they wrote. “Many authorities are looking to reopen their economies but doing so safely and to near previous output levels will require a series of medical breakthroughs and widespread distribution of the treatment.”

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MRB on Unseen Opportunity – May 1, 2020

Analysts have been waiting on a widespread treatment solution for weeks now. MRB Partners strategists Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa, prior to the announcement, suggested that a medical breakthrough is necessary if the U.S. economy is to fully re-open.

“The sharp relief rally in equities has now moved ahead of underlying fundamentals, leaving room for near-term disappointments,” the strategists said in a note to clients.

“Many authorities are looking to reopen their economies but doing so safely and to near previous output levels will require a series of medical breakthroughs and widespread distribution of the treatment.”

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MRB on CNBC – April 30, 2020

Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa, strategists at MRB Partners, urged investors to remain cautious.

“The sharp relief rally in equities has now moved ahead of underlying fundamentals, leaving room for near-term disappointments,” they said in a note to clients. “Many authorities are looking to reopen their economies but doing so safely and to near previous output levels will require a series of medical breakthroughs and widespread distribution of the treatment.”

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MRB on IndraStra – April 26, 2020

The macroeconomic research firm, MRB Partners, expressed confidence that economic growth in China will begin recovering in the second half of the year and continue through next year, albeit at below prior expected rates. Further, MRB Partners believes China’s recovery will have positive spillovers for the Asian region since it is the largest trading partner of most economies in Asia.

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MRB on China.org.cn – April 12, 2020

Sectors of the Chinese economy will remain significantly constrained for some time, notably those where people congregate in close proximity, said Perkins.

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MRB on Unseen Opportunity – March 30, 2020

“Equity markets are overextended, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months,” MRB Partners strategists wrote in a note.

“The world is now entering a third phase, the first being the shock of an out-of-control virus spreading around the globe, then the massive policy response, and now the economic fallout phase has arrived and will test investors’ very fragile confidence.”

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MRB on International Business Times – March 30, 2020

“Equity markets are overextended, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months,” wrote strategists at MRB Partners. “The world is now entering a third phase, the first being the shock of an out-of-control virus spreading around the globe, then the massive policy response, and now the economic fallout phase has arrived and will test investors’ very fragile confidence.”

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MRB on Micky – March 30, 2020

MRB Partners mentioned in a note that the equity markets are overextended and they are expecting a period of more virus-related news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months. They also added in their note:

“The world is now entering a third phase, the first being the shock of an out-of-control virus spreading around the globe, then the massive policy response, and now the economic fallout phase has arrived and will test investors’ very fragile confidence.”

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MRB on CNBC – March 29, 2020

“Equity markets are overextended, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. “The world is now entering a third phase, the first being the shock of an out-of-control virus spreading around the globe, then the massive policy response, and now the economic fallout phase has arrived and will test investors’ very fragile confidence.”

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MRB on CNBC – March 23, 2020

“Suffice to say that the economy entered a unique, sudden-stop recession in March,” wrote Prajakta Bhide, strategist at MRB Partners. “If there is no concrete evidence of meaningful progress toward controlling the epidemic in the next eight weeks, there will be no basis for people and businesses to feel safe to begin to normalize economic activity.”

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MRB on China.org.cn – March 22, 2020

“After recommending being short equities, we are now looking for a near-term bounce and reduction in implied volatility in the coming days,” said Colmar.

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MRB on Ecns – March 11, 202

Investors cannot fully assess the situation of COVID-19 infections in the United States as the cases are underreported due in part to the lack of testing, and that credible solutions are absent, Phillip Colmar, managing partner on global strategy with MRB Partners, told Xinhua.

“We’re gonna see a lot more volatility in the markets,” he said.

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MRB on CFA Boston Conference – March 10, 2020

I would like to thank Peter Perkins, a founding partner of MRB – The Macro Research Board, for being such a maestro. I enjoyed hosting Peter at an event titled “US 2020 Elections: A Lot is at Stake for Markets” at CFA Society Boston earlier in March. Among other interesting topics, Peter discussed the manufacturing sector as a leading indicator of the US presidential elections, opinion polls that are likelier to predict winners, industrial sectors that would benefit from the Democrat or Republican victories, and policies that the winning party or parties are likely to pursue.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – March 10, 2020

Phillip Colmar, managing partner on global strategy with MRB Partners, speaks in an interview with Xinhua in New York City, the United States, March 6, 2020.(Xinhua/Wei Ying)

Investors cannot fully assess the situation of COVID-19 infections in the United States as the cases are underreported due in part to the lack of testing, and that credible solutions are absent, Phillip Colmar, managing partner on global strategy with MRB Partners, told Xinhua.

“We’re gonna see a lot more volatility in the markets,” he said.

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