MacroResearchBoard

Time To Be Tactical – August 1, 2022

A just-published report updated our tactical investment strategy, and further shifted the MRB TradeBook in a more pro-growth direction. The drawdown in global equity markets in the first half of the year dramatically improved valuations and pushed markets to technical extremes, in terms of momentum and sentiment.

Most importantly, the checklist for a risk-on phase has significantly changed of late, and seems likely to move further in a favorable direction. There is room for a partial re-rating of equities and risk assets, provided interest rate expectations and bond yields remain calm for a period of time, as we expect. However, the investment cycle is maturing, so being tactical is required going forward.