MRB News

MRB on CNBC– December 11, 2019

“At the margin, the employment report is likely to reinforce the Fed’s message that the policy rate will remain steady for the foreseeable future, barring future trade policy shocks,” said Prajakta Bhide, strategist at MRB Partners. “Unless the trade policy environment worsens meaningfully, we expect that Fed policy will likely remain on hold until after the elections next November.”

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MRB on CNBC – October 21, 2019

“A credible and sizable positive trade announcement could expedite a turn for the better, although there is no sign of such an outcome,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. “There is considerable uncertainty on many fronts, including weak global trade and manufacturing activity, a generally protectionist trade backdrop, and many domestic and international political hotspots.”

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CFA Society Event – October 16, 2019

We have received fantastic feedback from our clients in California after Phillip Colmar‘s visit last week. Founding Partner and Global Strategist spoke at the CFA Society Event in Sacramento where we discussed MRB’s view on the persistent undercurrent of political instability.

For Pictures Of The Event Click Here

Fund Forum Asia – October 14, 2019

Mehran Nakhjavani was the invited speaker at the China Summit, Main Plenary of the 2020 Fund Forum Asia and Inside ETFs Asia in Hong Kong on 14 October 2019. The day addressed the issue of whether China is still the engine for global economic growth.

MRB on – September 30, 2019

"Having been equity bulls for most of the decade, we are currently neutral," said international investment advisory firm MRB Partners Inc. in a research note on Friday.

MRB said it would return to an overweight if political risks ebb and manufacturing activity firms up. Conversely, it would de-risk if the service and consumer sectors look to join the manufacturing sector on the downside.

MRB warned that instability and uncertainty from political backdrop is prolonging the sluggishness of global trade and could ultimately undermine economic risk-taking and eventually end the cycle.

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MRB on CNBC – September 23, 2019

“Trade wars and isolationist policies pose a major threat heading forward, and are being fueled in part by the reduction in global trade and manufacturing jobs,” said Phillip Colmar, partner at MRB Partners, in a note. “So far, the direct impact has been modest, but the indirect impact on manufacturing sentiment and activity has been meaningful given the starting point of subdued global export demand.”

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MRB on CNBC – August 28, 2019

MRB Partners strategist Prajakta Bhide thinks recessionary fears may be overblown. “The yield curve’s inversion this year is a symptom of external growth stress and powerful distortions in global bond yields and does not reflect restrictive Fed policy,” she said in a note. “Thus, it does not warrant a bearish economic interpretation.”

“Even if the inverted yield curve captures investor’s uncertainty about worsening global growth … a balanced perspective would still suggest that the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are no higher than 20%,” Bhide added.

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MRB on ABC – August 20, 2019

In a recent interview, Yan Arsenault from Trust Point provided some perspective on the next global recession, using The Global Trade Dominoes chart from MRB Partners. He outlined how a trade war could cause a recession but noted that it will not be as deep or long as the 2008-2009 fallout.

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MRB on CNBC – July 19, 2019

“Gold is often thought of as an inflation hedge, yet the two have not been correlated over the past 20 years,” Phillip Colmar, founding partner at MRB Partners, said in a note earlier this month. “Instead, gold thrives and core consumer price inflation tends to rise in an environment where policymakers are deliberately and persistently keeping policy rates and bond yields anchored below nominal GDP growth (i.e. fueling growth and inflation with an easy policy), which was the case of the 1960s and 1970s.”

Colmar added we view the recent rise in gold prices as a market-based signal that central banks are providing more reflation (via lower interest rates and bond yields) than is currently necessary to support the global economy.”

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MRB on Expresso Portugal – July 19, 2019

Phillip Colmar, estratego da consultora britânica MRB, sublinha que, nos casos da Austrália, Canadá e Reino Unido, a situação ultimamente “suavizou-se notavelmente”. O efeito temporário da queda dos juros “adiou um pouco o dia do acerto de contas”

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Clarien Investments has partnered with MRB Partners for over 5 years with great results for clients. Watch Phillip Colmar from MRB Partners, speaking about Geopolitical tensions and social unrest which are higher than ever due to the rise of populism and income inequality.

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MRB Featured In The The Royal Gazette (Bermuda) – June 24, 2019

Mr Colmar was speaking a day after an invitation-only presentation, “A Persistent Undercurrent of Political Instability”, for Clarien Investments Ltd clients at the Bermuda National Gallery. In demand worldwide, Mr Colmar has visited clients in Latin America, Europe, Asia, and South Africa in the last month alone. He has a BA in economics, a BBA (finance) from Bishop’s University in Montreal, and a MSc (finance) from Queen’s University in Ontario.

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MRB on CNBC – June 1, 2019

Salvatore Ruscitti, U.S. equity strategist at MRB Partners, notes investors should remain cautious on semiconductors given their high exposure to China.

“Chip stocks will remain vulnerable until U.S./China trade negotiations improve. We recommend staying on the sidelines with a neutral stance,” he wrote in a note Thursday. “A further significant escalation in the U.S./China trade dispute that restricts access to the fast-growing Chinese market would represent a significant threat to the longer-term prospects of the semiconductor industry and warrant a downgrade of the sub-group to underweight.”

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MRB on CNBC – May 16, 2019

“The recent flare-up in U.S./China trade tensions is a near-term negative for equities,” said Salvatore Ruscitti, equity strategist at MRB Partners, in a note. But “assuming the U.S. and China eventually reach a trade deal within the next few months, the weakness in equities should be temporary, and stock prices should move higher on a 6-12 month horizon.”

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MRB Chart Of The Week: U.S. Equities: Superior Profits, But Relatively Expensive – April 15, 2019

Last Friday’s MRB Macro Strategy Report “Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V” addressed a number of the key topical investment issues, including a version of the “do great companies make great stocks?”. While U.S. stocks have outperformed in recent years and offer many compelling attributes (superior economic growth, more favorable sector composition, and better profitability), they do not offer good value when measured against comparative profitability. In other words, the U.S. is now comparatively expensive even adjusted for its superior profitability, with several key sectors trading at or near all-time relative valuation premiums. These premiums would be difficult to sustain if the relative earnings trend shifts away from the U.S. as global growth momentum firms anew, which is our base-case scenario. On a 6-12 month horizon, we recommend a mild underweight in U.S. equities, with select overweights in the EM, euro area and Japanese markets.

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MRB on Expresso Portugal – March 16, 2019

Monetary policy is rendered somewhat impotent in economies that are deleveraging. This is because the supply and demand for credit are being influenced by something other than merely the cost of capital. Monetary policy can help slow deleveraging drags, but fiscal stimulus is often necessary to providing an offset and encourage a sustained economic expansion. This has been lacking in the euro area, which is why economic growth is subdued and prone to downside risks. A great deal of progress has been made in terms of balance sheet repair which makes the region more resilient than earlier this decade and more so than investors expect. Nonetheless, a fiscal offset would be helpful, at least until the deleveraging cycle runs its course.

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MRB on CNBC – March 8, 2019

“A pullback in risk assets was needed, but underlying technical and fundamental conditions are positive,” Peter Perkins, partner at MRB Partners, wrote in a note to clients. “The global growth outlook remains mixed, but there are signs that economic growth momentum in China and the euro area is bottoming, while the U.S. economy continues to chug along at a moderately above-potential pace.”

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Taking A Look At The Long Term – March 6, 2019

After the wild ride in global financial markets over the past several months, there is considerable uncertainty about prospects going forward. Such sentiment has been the case for much of the current decade, because the environment has been unusual on so many fronts – economic, policy and market trends. Lacking a roadmap, most investors’ time horizons seem to have shrunk to the very short term, reflecting a low conviction in how the future may unfold.

Last week’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy “The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio” updated the MRB TradeBook, and modified a number of positions. It also examined the outlook beyond the current cycle, and how it might unfold based on developing trends and themes that we have identified. The main conclusion was that the next global recession would likely witness a major reset of investor expectations and kickstart several multi-year asset price trends. To this end, the report provided a number of multi-year recommendations, several of which can either be acted upon now, or at least gradually augmented in the coming year or two.

BCI Global Investment Conference , South Africa – May 15-16 2018

MRB is participating in the BCI Global Investment Conference in Stellenbosch, South Africa on 15th and 16th May 2018. Peter Perkins will be speaking on the independent research panel on the second day of the event.

For More Information Click Here

Global Independent Research Conference, London – March 1, 2018

Global Independent Research Conference

MRB is participating in the fourth Global Independent Research Conference in London on Thursday 1st March 2018. Peter Perkins will be speaking on the Global Macro panel and Adam Wolfe will take part in the Emerging Markets panel.

For More Information Click Here

We Have Moved To A New MRB-London Office

The MRB London office has moved to 39 Houndsditch, 4th Floor, London EC3A 7DB. Please note our phone number has changed to +44 20 3667 2160.

To view address on Google Maps Click Here