MRB News

MRB Chart Of The Week: U.S. Equities: Superior Profits, But Relatively Expensive

Last Friday’s MRB Macro Strategy Report “Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V” addressed a number of the key topical investment issues, including a version of the “do great companies make great stocks?”. While U.S. stocks have outperformed in recent years and offer many compelling attributes (superior economic growth, more favorable sector composition, and better profitability), they do not offer good value when measured against comparative profitability. In other words, the U.S. is now comparatively expensive even adjusted for its superior profitability, with several key sectors trading at or near all-time relative valuation premiums. These premiums would be difficult to sustain if the relative earnings trend shifts away from the U.S. as global growth momentum firms anew, which is our base-case scenario. On a 6-12 month horizon, we recommend a mild underweight in U.S. equities, with select overweights in the EM, euro area and Japanese markets.

To view full report Click Here

MRB on Expresso Portugal

Monetary policy is rendered somewhat impotent in economies that are deleveraging. This is because the supply and demand for credit are being influenced by something other than merely the cost of capital. Monetary policy can help slow deleveraging drags, but fiscal stimulus is often necessary to providing an offset and encourage a sustained economic expansion. This has been lacking in the euro area, which is why economic growth is subdued and prone to downside risks. A great deal of progress has been made in terms of balance sheet repair which makes the region more resilient than earlier this decade and more so than investors expect. Nonetheless, a fiscal offset would be helpful, at least until the deleveraging cycle runs its course.

To view full report Click Here


“A pullback in risk assets was needed, but underlying technical and fundamental conditions are positive,” Peter Perkins, partner at MRB Partners, wrote in a note to clients. “The global growth outlook remains mixed, but there are signs that economic growth momentum in China and the euro area is bottoming, while the U.S. economy continues to chug along at a moderately above-potential pace.”

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Taking A Look At The Long Term

After the wild ride in global financial markets over the past several months, there is considerable uncertainty about prospects going forward. Such sentiment has been the case for much of the current decade, because the environment has been unusual on so many fronts – economic, policy and market trends. Lacking a roadmap, most investors’ time horizons seem to have shrunk to the very short term, reflecting a low conviction in how the future may unfold.

Last week’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy “The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio” updated the MRB TradeBook, and modified a number of positions. It also examined the outlook beyond the current cycle, and how it might unfold based on developing trends and themes that we have identified. The main conclusion was that the next global recession would likely witness a major reset of investor expectations and kickstart several multi-year asset price trends. To this end, the report provided a number of multi-year recommendations, several of which can either be acted upon now, or at least gradually augmented in the coming year or two.

Guest Speaker Invitation Adam Wolfe: FundForum Asia, Hong Kong 3-5 September

MRB has been invited to participate in FundForum’s pre-eminent China Summit taking place in Hong Kong on September 3rd , 2018. Asia Ex-Japan Strategist Adam Wolfe will present MRB’s views on China’s new economy and policies, specifically our forecasts and interpretations for China as a global economic driver, overcoming execution issues and current priorities for investors looking to access in China.  For details on the FundForum Asia conference.

For More Information Click Here

BCI Global Investment Conference , South Africa – May 15-16 2018

MRB is participating in the BCI Global Investment Conference in Stellenbosch, South Africa on 15th and 16th May 2018. Peter Perkins will be speaking on the independent research panel on the second day of the event.

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Global Independent Research Conference, London – March 1, 2018

Global Independent Research Conference

MRB is participating in the fourth Global Independent Research Conference in London on Thursday 1st March 2018. Peter Perkins will be speaking on the Global Macro panel and Adam Wolfe will take part in the Emerging Markets panel.

For More Information Click Here

We Have Moved To A New MRB-London Office

The MRB London office has moved to 39 Houndsditch, 4th Floor, London EC3A 7DB. Please note our phone number has changed to +44 20 3667 2160.

To view address on Google Maps Click Here

U.S. Investment Strategy Presentation, London – November 3, 2017

Will The U.S. Derail The Equity Bull Market?

MRB welcomed clients to an exclusive breakfast presentation, hosted by Warren Smith, Partner & U.S. Strategist.

To view the full presentation Click Here

CFA Society, Boston – October 18, 2017

For Whom The Bell Tolls: Asset Allocation And Capital Markets Outlook For 2018

Peter Perkins examines the outlook for capital markets over the next year and lays out recommended global asset allocation against a challenging backdrop. Mr. Perkins also provides perspective on the evolving political and economic landscape in Europe.

To view the full presentation Click Here

Emerging Markets Seminar, London – September 27, 2017

The China Syndrome, And How It Plays Out For EM Assets

Mehran Nakhjavani and Adam Wolfe discussed the impending commodity slowdown and its impact on emerging markets assets.

To view the full presentation Click Here

MRB’s Newest Research Team Member – September 13, 2017

We Are Pleased To Announce Prajakta Bhide As The Newest Member Of Our Global Research Team.

Prajakta is a U.S. Strategist that will provide in-depth analysis on the U.S. economy, policy and asset markets.

To view Prajakta Bhide’s bio Click Here

Global Equities Luncheon, New York & Boston – May 23 & 24, 2017

How To Position In A Politically Uncertain World

MRB invites you to a presentation on the outlook for global equity markets and sectors. MRB Strategists, Peter Perkins and Salvatore Ruscitti, will lay out their views and take questions.

To view the full presentation Click Here