MacroResearchBoard

Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global macro strategist at MRB Partners, similarly said that equities continue to be driven by the bond market. Stocks remain slightly overbought, he said, adding that the economy remains “reasonably resilient,” making it harder for future rate cuts to be justified.

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The market has been too eager to call the end of the bond bear market and the recent sell-off became overdone, said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners in New York. “The durability of the U.S. and global economy warns against betting that bond yields will continue to fall,” he said.

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Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, joins to talk about the U.S. and Canadian economies, housing markets, central bank policy and the outlook for financial markets in both countries. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.

Listen to interview: Click Here, Bloomberg Radio

Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners joins Elias Makos to discuss the real estate bubble and the painful mortgage resets that millions of Canadians are now facing.

Listen to interview: Click Here, CJAD 800 AM

Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner at MRB Partners, noted that “The economy is not buckling under the current cost of capital, and if it’s not, then what’s the point of pricing in rate cuts…there’s no real case for the Fed to cut here.”

View article: Reuters, Yahoo! Finance, msn

Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners, joined Yahoo! Finance to discuss the jobs report, as well as the outlook for the Fed, bonds and equity sectors as we approach 2024. He noted that a moderation in inflation and employment conditions provides a period of Goldilocks, but the higher for longer interest rate environment will persist. 

View interview: Click Here, Yahoo! Finance

Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners, joined BNN Bloomberg this week to discuss why he’s not surprised by recent weakness in the Canadian economy and why the Bank of Canada’s tightening campaign is over. He also spoke about the outlook for the Fed and how investors should position.

View interview: Click Here, BNN Bloomberg, BNN Bloomberg_2

Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, joined BNN Bloomberg to discuss Canada’s economy ahead of the BoC rate decision. Colmar warned that the BoC is not in the Fed’s seat. It’s in a more dangerous situation!

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MRB Partners Global Strategist Phillip Colmar spoke with MarketWatch reporter Frances Yue about why a bond yield consolidation is needed for equities, especially tech stocks.

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This week MRB Partners Managing Partner Phillip Colmar spoke with Bloomberg reporter Emily Graffeo about the outlook for bonds and near-term risks for equities.

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Other strategists have warned that there’s still a chance yields run higher. Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, predicted they could indeed breach 5.5% in 2024, and Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors, said a potential government shutdown in November could be an additional factor that pushes yields higher. 

View article: Yahoo! Finance, msn, Markets Insider

“Every [CPI] print that comes in where it shows more stickiness chips away at the inherent belief we will eventually get to 2% inflation. We’re not going to 2% inflation, but the bond market still wants to believe we will or come close to it,” said Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. Equities continue to head south “as the market realizes that yields will move higher,” he said.

View article: CNBC, Vetta FI ETF Trends

Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner at MRB Partners, joined David Clement on The News Forum this week to discuss how the Canadian housing bubble could soon become destabilizing.

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Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, predicted the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could even breach 5.5% in 2024, saying the Fed previously suppressed longer-term yields with overly optimistic inflation views and low estimates for a neutral policy rate.

View article: Markets Insider, Yahoo Finance!, msn

Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner at MRB Partners, warned that the Canadian housing bubble will  inevitably burst. He cited the fact that the country has one of the biggest bubbles of all time. The surge in Canadian home prices happened as the Bank of Canada (BoC) left interest rates at near zero after the Global Finance Crisis (GFC).

View article: Investing.com, Kalkine Media

Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss how higher bond yields affect risk assets. Colmar says the Canadian economy is highly suseptible to higher rates and he warns about contradictory tendencies in house prices similar to what we saw in the U.S. in the late 2000s. He adds that housing concerns could lead international investors to target/short Canadian banks.

View interview: Click Here, BNN Bloomberg

MRB Partners Global Strategist Phillip Colmar notes “if you’re not getting a recession, you’re not getting weakness, you’re getting a strong job market or a durable job market, the Fed has no hope of getting close to its two percent inflation target.”

View interview: Click Here, Yahoo! Finance

An analyst has expressed concerns that Canada’s housing market, which he describes as one of the largest housing bubbles ever, poses a significant risk to the country’s economy. Phillip Colmar, a partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, believes that if the housing bubble bursts, Canada could face a deeper recession than what has been forecasted.

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Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, joins the program to talk about the global economy and outlook for the markets. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.

Listen to interview: Click Here, Bloomberg Radio

A resilient U.S. economy is the broader trend despite the rise in interest rates, said Phillip Colmar, global macro strategist at MRB Partners in New York.

“We think the underlying trend of U.S. inflation is with a 3% handle, not 2%, and without a recession you have no chance to get to 2%. The market is still coming to grips with that idea.” “If we don’t get interest rates high enough to cause a recession or to sustainably dampen growth, you don’t need rate cuts. So that pushes up yields”.

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Phillip Colmar is managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

Canada is facing a massive housing bubble after more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards. And with a widespread affordability crisis, the country is now atan escalating risk of a housing bust. Many Canadians maintain hope for a soft landing, but higher mortgage rates and softening employment conditions are a lethal combination.

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Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and global strategist at MRB Partners, joins BNN Bloomberg to discuss how Canada’s economy will fall behind peers and how it will have a negative effect on Canadian banks.

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“Canada is probably sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time,” says Phillip Colmar, partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. “House prices and income ratios are off the charts.”

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Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners, joins CTV News host Todd van der Heyden to discuss Canada’s real estate bubble and the impact for the economy when it bursts.

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Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner of MRB Partners, joins CTV News host Todd Battis to discuss the vulnerabilities created by Canada’s twin bubbles of home prices and household debt. 

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Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners has analyzed housing bubbles across the globe and flagged Canada as potentially having the most concerning one.

View article: Click Here, Waterloo Record, Niagara Falls Review, InsideHalton.com, Welland Tribune, ParrySound.com

An international strategist is warning that Canada could be sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time.

“I’ve analyzed housing bubbles in the developed world and Canada’s really got a unique one to its own,” says Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners.

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Phillip Colmar, global strategist of MRB Partners, is concerned about the unprecedented levels of debt that could put several Canadian households at risk. The worst part for a housing bubble is when you have a credit bubble underneath it.

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“The worst part for the housing bubble is when you have a credit bubble underneath it, and the amount of Canadian leverage into the system versus income is pretty astronomical,” said Phillip Colmar, the Managing Partner of The Macro Research Board.

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Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners joins Elias Makos to discuss the real estate bubble and whether people considering getting into the business should wait to jump in.

Listen to interview: Click Here, CJAD 800 AM

“I think it’s a very narrowly focused market,” says Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, adding that just a few names are driving the entire market. “I do think if you’ve got a better growth backdrop and higher bond yields, it lends itself naturally to a broadening of the market. We saw some of that in recent weeks,” he said.

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The U.S. economy is less interest rate-sensitive than it was in the past, said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners in New York. “This has been a year in transition where people had expected recession. They’ve been wrong-footed on that call,” he said. “We expected bond yields would break higher and hit new highs, which they have.”

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The Canadian housing market is at high risk of unravelling, according to one expert. The level of debt that Canadians have taken on in comparison to their incomes has put many in a precarious position should mortgage rates continue to rise — which is likely says Phillip Colmar, managing partner at MRB Partners.

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In an interview with BNN Bloomberg,  Phillip Colmar, partner at Global Strategist at MRB Partners, notes that  “Canada is probably sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time”.

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The unprecedented high levels of debt that Canadians currently hold will place a significant number of households at risk, especially if mortgage rates continue to rise, according to Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

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“Canada is probably sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time,” Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner of MRB Partners explained. “Inflated housing prices in Canada were the result of two decades of access to cheap money, a situation that was made possible by the Bank of Canada.”

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“I don’t think this level of yield will break the economy, so you’ll get a better entry point,” with a higher yield, says Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, an investment strategy firm.

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MRB – The Macro Research Board has been warning about regional banks’ commercial real-estate exposure over the last year, Phillip Colmar, managing director, global strategy, tells Aerial View.

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“There is almost no chance that core inflation will fall back near the central bank’s 2% target absent a recession, and the latest economic data indicates the Fed did not provide that knock-out blow.” Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

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“The markets had run up a lot,” said Phillip Colmar, managing partner at MRB Partners. “It’s a bit of a wait-and-see, digestion phase.”

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A U.S. economy growing more than expected has pushed aside fears of a recession, but rising bond yields pose a risk to equity investors, said Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners in New York.

“The bond market is coming back into the driver’s seat again,” he said, much as it was in 2022. “If the cost of capital isn’t the thing causing economic damage here, as everybody predicted and our framework suggests it isn’t, then it’s pretty hard to argue for rate cuts.”

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Managing Partner and Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, joined host Nicole Petallides on TD Ameritrade Network’s “The Watch List” to discuss the equity rally and why investors should watch the 10-year treasury yield closely in today’s market. He provides several investment recommendations.

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Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner, joined Bloomberg Radio to talk about the equity market in a higher interest rate and bond yield environment. Hosted by Jessica Menton and Paul Sweeney.

Listen to interview: Click Here, Bloomberg Radio

“Where the market is mispriced is in expecting significant rate cuts next year. If anything, additional rate hikes will be required,” said Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners.

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“This Fed meeting was about going for maximum flexibility, giving them the ability to do one more quarter-point hike, but not more than that,” Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners told Investing.com’s Yasin Ebrahim in an interview Wednesday.

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Phillip Colmar is Managing Partner of the Macro Research Board.

“And the reason is I think is investors have really pulled away from their recession forecast. They’re upgrading growth, which is positive to broader value indexes and broader swath of equities, and at the same time, bond yields are remaining capped here.”

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Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner of the Macro Research Board, says a combination of low bond fields, fading recession fears and a foreseeable end to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes have put equities in a “sweet spot” for growth.

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Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner of the Macro Research Board, says it may be “a political challenge” for the U.S. Federal Reserve to bring the annual inflation rate down to two percent – which, he adds, may not even be an appropriate target.

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The banking crisis has affected the economy less than people appreciate, MRB – The Macro Research Board’s managing partner, global strategy, Phillip Colmar, tells Aerial View.

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Still, “I think there’s some optimism about CPI coming in lower [than expected] this week,” said Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

View articles: MarketWatch and Morningstar

However, the more important catalyst for growth stocks will be the direction of Treasury yields, according to Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

“The key to a broader participation in the stock rally will be where monetary policy is headed and its impact on bond yields,” Colmar said. If yields break out of their October highs, investors will start getting nervous about tech and growth stocks, he added.

View articles Bloomberg and Financial Advisor

“We’ve seen central banks say: ‘Oh, we haven’t done enough.’ They thought at the beginning of the year they had, and everybody thought we were going into recession, and now what we’re seeing is the data sequentially move away from that,” said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners. “If you’re not in a recession, it’s also really hard to get core inflation down because you need to weaken the employment sector in order to do so.”

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The probability of a recession in the U.S. and global economy this year is much lower than most previously believed, notes Phillip Colmar. He discusses economic trends investors should be watching, as well as what inflation data means for Fed policy. He talks about how the market has been mispriced in expecting Fed rate cuts later this year. He also goes over how equity investors need to be selective and positioned in markets that have valuation support and relative earnings.

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As for the data the Federal Reserve is watching, “the latest inflation prints showed a further easing in price pressures, most notably at the headline level,” says Phillip Colmar, partner and global strategist of MRB Partners. This, he adds, “provided some flexibility for the Fed to take a breather at today’s meeting.”

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Many economists are overestimating the likelihood of a recession over the next year, Phillip Colmar, managing partner, global strategy at the MRB – The Macro Research Board, tells Aerial View. That’s because their base case assumes the 2010s represent equilibrium, he explains. Colmar says that was an outlier period in history, with the household and banking sectors deleveraging and some other drags after the housing bust. He says economists worry due to that base case that as the cost of capital rises it will hinder the world economy and therefore they’ve been underestimating where interest rate levels need to be.

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“I think there’s a realization among central banks but also investors that the cost of capital wasn’t yet at the tipping point. We’re not sending the world economy into recession,” said Phillip Colmar, partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

View articles: Dow Jones – Marketwatch – Morningstar – msn

“You’ve got a situation where people are pricing out a recession and the growth side of the equation is looking a little better, but we’ve had a big unwind of Fed rate-cut expectations for this year,” said Phillip Colmar, global strategist and partner at MRB Partners.

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MRB strategist Santiago Espinosa also explained why he thinks the SNB is very likely to pause its interest rate hikes.

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The balance between stocks and bonds also depends on where investors think the equilibrium Fed funds rate stands, according to Phillip Colmar, partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. The equilibrium Fed funds rate is the short-term interest rate consistent with full employment and stable inflation in the long run.

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Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Anna Wong, Chief US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, join the show to discuss the debt ceiling. Michael McKee also joins the discussion. Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, joins the program to talk about investments he likes and outlook for the markets.

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Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, joins the program to talk about investments he likes and outlook for the markets. Hosted by Kriti Gupta and Madison Mills.

Listen to interview: Click Here, Bloomberg Radio

“Certainly, the debt ceiling’s been weighing on investors,” said Phillip Colmar, partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. “It’s probably an 11th-hour deal, but if it is earlier than that, I think that would be encouraging.”

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Investors will be monitoring U.S. banking sector developments very closely over the next several days, since the recent events caused a renewed selloff in bank stocks and more volatility across the markets, says Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners, an independent investment research firm.

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“The wild card or caveat is always that banking systems are built or based on the trust of depositors. If that trust or confidence is questioned (potentially due to negative news headlines or sharp declines in share prices), a panic or frenzy can unfold where people start pulling their deposits at otherwise solid banks,” said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners.

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What’s next for the stock market after the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hike? According to MRB Partners’ global strategist Phillip Colmar, investors will be closely monitoring the banking sector and inflation data. Read the full article by Money’s Mallika Mitra to learn more about the outlook for the market: Click Here

“The wild card or caveat is always that banking systems are built or based on the trust of depositors. If that trust or confidence is questioned (potentially due to negative news headlines or sharp declines in share prices), a panic or frenzy can unfold where people start pulling their deposits at otherwise solid banks.”

After a volatile week for bank stocks, MRB Partners’ global strategist Phillip Colmar discussed several factors that impact deposits in reporter Emily Graffeo’s Bloomberg article: Click Here

The strategy is especially relevant in today’s market environment of global supply shocks in food and energy, excessive inflation, surging interest rates and bond yields and the increasing risk of recession. In an MRB Partners report titled “Dividends pay dividends in tough times” (July 26, 2022), Peter Perkins writes that “Dividends are more stable than earnings and provide a buffer for equities during periods of weakening global economic growth…

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MRB Partners states that “Euro area households, businesses and banks are in solid shape which provides a much greater foundation than a decade ago.” As a result, it forecasts the Eurozone will grow at a faster pace in the next decade than the last, with annual growth picking up from 0.9% from 2011-2021 to around 1.5%.

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“After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices,” MRB said in a note Tuesday.

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World oil demand growth in 2022 will remain strong, but supply will likely rise to meet it, said Mehran Nakhjavani, a partner of emerging markets with the MRB Partners on Tuesday.

Oil prices are more likely to return to a range of 60 dollars to 70 dollars per barrel next year, rather than to rise further from current elevated levels, said Nakhjavani in a research note.

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“The crypto space has now become mildly overbought,” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, an investment research firm, said during an interview with CoinDesk. The chart below shows MRB’s cyclical momentum indicator, which has risen from oversold levels over the past month.

Espinosa said that risk-taking in cryptocurrencies has been heavily incentivized by extreme monetary and fiscal stimulus. This could mean cryptocurrencies have further room to rise and eventually reach extreme overbought levels.

For now, “I believe that until real interest rates become restrictive, the recent rally in this speculative space has legs,” Espinosa said.

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“The challenge for this speculative space is there remain too many macro headwinds to be resolved,” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, said in an interview with CoinDesk.

Espinosa said the global regulatory crackdown is still evolving. Outside of China, U.S. and European authorities may enact stricter measures that could handicap crypto prices by making it harder for users to exchange crypto for fiat currencies, according to Espinosa.

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The MRB Partners on Thursday confirmed an overweight rating on Chinese stocks within an emerging market and global equity portfolio within the next six to 12 months, said Mehran Nakhjavani, a partner of emerging markets with the MRB Partners

.

The confirmation is based on domestic investor positioning support, oversold conditions and likely policy announcements that will provide monetary and fiscal policy cushions, Nakhjavani said.

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Several analysts noted that extreme overbought conditions have unwound since April, which is providing support for the crypto rally.

“Right now, bitcoin and other cryptos have enjoyed technical support (as they were becoming mildly oversold),” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, wrote in an email to CoinDesk.

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“Right now, bitcoin and other cryptos have enjoyed technical support (as they were becoming mildly oversold),” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, wrote in an email to CoinDesk.

“At this juncture, some cryptos can continue to do well if policymakers neglect inflationary pressures and regulatory issues don’t become a mainstream problem,” Espinosa wrote.

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Another source of selling pressure across risk assets could be the reduction of government stimulus. “Too much stimulus breeds complacency,” MRB Partners wrote in a research note published on Friday.

MRB also noted widespread asset price inflation, which can lead to market imbalances similar to an episode in Japan in the 1980s that preceded a decade of low investment returns.

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China will continue to be a major contributor to global trade growth in the year ahead thanks to continued strength in the country’s domestic demand and import demand driven by robust export orders, Mehran Nakhjavani, partner of emerging markets with research firm MRB Partners, said in a recent note.

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“Any evidence that easy money is ending with a more hawkish stance by central banks will likely be a drag for speculative assets,” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, wrote in an email.

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“Based on the past two bitcoin cycles it suggests that the pandemic-induced crypto bull market may have come to an end, as this digital space is undergoing an unwinding of overbought price conditions,” said Santiago Espinosa, strategist of absolute return and foreign exchange with MRB Partners.

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“Inflation will not be as ‘transitory’ as many investors believe, or the Fed hopes will be the case,” cautioned Phillip
Colmar, global macro strategist at The Macro Research Board, a US-based independent global top-down research
firm.

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“Crypto is seen as a way of hedging against political turmoil, but it will need to reach critical mass. El Salvador’s move is unlikely to counter China’s given its relative size,” Santiago Espinosa, strategist at the independent investment research firm MRB, said in an interview.

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Thus, the question remains if this is the end of the Bitcoin-driven rally since the past year? New York-based MRB Partners, a boutique investment research firm believe that the rally in Bitcoin (BTC) since the previous year may be coming to an end.

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The rally in bitcoin (BTC) over the past year may be nearing an end, according to New York-based MRB Partners, a boutique investment research firm.

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U.S. cyclical sectors like energy, financials, industrials and materials have led the market higher since early November 2020 when positive vaccine news began to trickle out, said research firm MRB Partners on Friday.

MRB Partners said it expects cyclical sectors to continue to exert market leadership in the year ahead given the prospects of strong economic rebound once a large share of the population is inoculated.

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U.S. real GDP will grow at over 7.5 percent in 2021 by using a fairly conservative assumption regarding the size of the fiscal multiplier, said Prajakta Bhide, U.S. economy and policy strategist with MRB Partners, a New York-based private research firm, on Thursday.

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Such policies should be designed to reduce perceived downside risk to euro and the process will likely be gradual, said Peter Perkins, global strategist at MRB Partners on Tuesday.

“The main barriers are simply the absence of a unified banking or financial system across countries and the lack of political cohesion among the euro area member countries,” said Perkins.

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Here’s the funny thing: Economists can’t really agree on why it’s happening. It’s been the “upside surprise” of this pandemic year. MRB Partners’ Prajakta Bhide said it best: “It’s very unusual in a recession and needs to be further examined.”

The data Bhide shared seem to point to a boom that’s being driven by affluent buyers who’ve held onto their jobs during the pandemic wave of unemployment. The numbers point to big growth in the mid- to high-end housing tier, not so much in the “entry level” market, which hasn’t done as well.

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Prajakta Bhide said this is “very, very unusual in a recession and needs to be further examined.” The US Economy strategist at MacroResearchBoard (MRB) Partners said that the centrality of housing to the wider US economy usually means that when housing does well, the whole US economy is doing well.

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Phillip Colmar, accomplice at MRB Companions, mentioned wrote in a word that the worldwide financial restoration “might be sustained, however the V-shaped portion is over, and we’ve already transitioned to a slower tempo of two-steps ahead and one again.”

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Phillip Colmar, partner at MRB Partners, wrote in a note that the global economic recovery “will be sustained, but the V-shaped portion is over, and we have already transitioned to a slower pace of two-steps forward and one back.”

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“Massive policy stimulus, positive medical developments and high hopes for a return to pre-pandemic economic activity levels have provided a solid boost to equity markets,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. “However, mounting new economic restrictions, particularly in Europe, despite being forecastable and in lagged response to the re-acceleration in COVID-19 infections, only caught investors’ attention this week, triggering sharp losses.”

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“With no clear end to the pandemic in sight, the economy needs additional fiscal support that will last for several months,” Prajakta Bhide, a strategist at MRB Partners, said in a note. “The passing of a sizeable additional fiscal stimulus by the beginning of next year, and better control over the COVID-19 pandemic next year via the timely approval of a medical solution will be essential to ensure continued economic growth next year.”

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“The rapid post-pandemic policy response combined with exposure to Chinese demand for industrial commodities have fueled an early economic recovery (in Brazil) compared with many EM peers,” strategists at MRB Partners said.

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In an increasingly multi-polar world economy, the primary strategic objective of any multinational corporation is to maintain a strong and competitive presence in each of the major economies like the United States, the EU, China and others in order to maintain market share, supply chains and regulatory approvals in each economic zone, said Nakhjavani.

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Data in June “confirms that Chinese economic activity has recovered from its early-year swoon and is growing at, or slightly above, its trend growth rate,” said Nakhjavani, adding that pockets of weakness linger in exports and some elements of consumer spending.

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Mehran Nakhjavani, emerging markets strategist at research firm MRB Partners, told Xinhua that China’s economic readings for May and June have recovered, and “we see this pace continuing in the second half of the year.”

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The report “Canada on thin ice as it heats up” by Macro Research Board (MRB) Partners paints a bleak picture. It says that Canada has followed global trends in falling into a ‘sudden stop’ recession with high unemployment and a plunge in activity. It says that Canada is more exposed than most economies, however, because of “an unstable real estate bubble and household credit binge.” MRB’s founding partner Phillip Colmar told WP that Canada is due for a deleveraging cycle after years of a consumer credit ‘binge’ with widespread ramifications for Canadian equity markets and Canadian investors.

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The report “Canada on thin ice as it heats up” by Macro Research Board (MRB) partners paints a bleak picture. The report says that Canada has followed global trends in falling into a ‘sudden stop’ recession with high unemployment and a plunge in activity. It says that Canada is more exposed than most economies, however, because of “an unstable real estate bubble and household credit binge.” It says policymakers are putting off the day of reckoning but have run out of ammunition and there is no guarantee they can prevent a housing bust. The report says such a correction will have long-term positive effects in creating more caution among Canadian consumers, the short to medium term will be a rocky road to recovery.

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“The Covid-19 pandemic has reinforced the essential role that technology plays for businesses and consumers and stoked expectations that the recession could see many of the largest growth companies become even more dominant,” Salvatore Ruscitti, U.S. equities strategist at MRB Partners, told CNBC earlier this week.

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Despite the strong stock performance in April, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa, strategists at MRB Partners, urged caution.

“The sharp relief rally in equities has now moved ahead of underlying fundamentals, leaving room for near-term disappointments,” they wrote. “Many authorities are looking to reopen their economies but doing so safely and to near previous output levels will require a series of medical breakthroughs and widespread distribution of the treatment.”

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Analysts have been waiting on a widespread treatment solution for weeks now. MRB Partners strategists Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa, prior to the announcement, suggested that a medical breakthrough is necessary if the U.S. economy is to fully re-open.

“The sharp relief rally in equities has now moved ahead of underlying fundamentals, leaving room for near-term disappointments,” the strategists said in a note to clients.

“Many authorities are looking to reopen their economies but doing so safely and to near previous output levels will require a series of medical breakthroughs and widespread distribution of the treatment.”

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Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa, strategists at MRB Partners, urged investors to remain cautious.

“The sharp relief rally in equities has now moved ahead of underlying fundamentals, leaving room for near-term disappointments,” they said in a note to clients. “Many authorities are looking to reopen their economies but doing so safely and to near previous output levels will require a series of medical breakthroughs and widespread distribution of the treatment.”

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The macroeconomic research firm, MRB Partners, expressed confidence that economic growth in China will begin recovering in the second half of the year and continue through next year, albeit at below prior expected rates. Further, MRB Partners believes China’s recovery will have positive spillovers for the Asian region since it is the largest trading partner of most economies in Asia.

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“Without conclusive evidence of immunity or a vaccine, the risk of infection will be a major deterrent. This will also constrain many lower-value added manufacturing activities where workers are closely stationed,” Peter Perkins, founding partner of macroeconomic research firm MRB Partners, told Xinhua.

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Sectors of the Chinese economy will remain significantly constrained for some time, notably those where people congregate in close proximity, said Perkins.

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“Equity markets are overextended, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months,” MRB Partners strategists wrote in a note.

“The world is now entering a third phase, the first being the shock of an out-of-control virus spreading around the globe, then the massive policy response, and now the economic fallout phase has arrived and will test investors’ very fragile confidence.”

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“Equity markets are overextended, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months,” wrote strategists at MRB Partners. “The world is now entering a third phase, the first being the shock of an out-of-control virus spreading around the globe, then the massive policy response, and now the economic fallout phase has arrived and will test investors’ very fragile confidence.”

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MRB Partners mentioned in a note that the equity markets are overextended and they are expecting a period of more virus-related news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months. They also added in their note:

“The world is now entering a third phase, the first being the shock of an out-of-control virus spreading around the globe, then the massive policy response, and now the economic fallout phase has arrived and will test investors’ very fragile confidence.”

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“Equity markets are overextended, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. “The world is now entering a third phase, the first being the shock of an out-of-control virus spreading around the globe, then the massive policy response, and now the economic fallout phase has arrived and will test investors’ very fragile confidence.”

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“Suffice to say that the economy entered a unique, sudden-stop recession in March,” wrote Prajakta Bhide, strategist at MRB Partners. “If there is no concrete evidence of meaningful progress toward controlling the epidemic in the next eight weeks, there will be no basis for people and businesses to feel safe to begin to normalize economic activity.”

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“After recommending being short equities, we are now looking for a near-term bounce and reduction in implied volatility in the coming days,” said Colmar.

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Investors cannot fully assess the situation of COVID-19 infections in the United States as the cases are underreported due in part to the lack of testing, and that credible solutions are absent, Phillip Colmar, managing partner on global strategy with MRB Partners, told Xinhua.

“We’re gonna see a lot more volatility in the markets,” he said.

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I would like to thank Peter Perkins, a founding partner of MRB – The Macro Research Board, for being such a maestro. I enjoyed hosting Peter at an event titled “US 2020 Elections: A Lot is at Stake for Markets” at CFA Society Boston earlier in March. Among other interesting topics, Peter discussed the manufacturing sector as a leading indicator of the US presidential elections, opinion polls that are likelier to predict winners, industrial sectors that would benefit from the Democrat or Republican victories, and policies that the winning party or parties are likely to pursue.

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Phillip Colmar, managing partner on global strategy with MRB Partners, speaks in an interview with Xinhua in New York City, the United States, March 6, 2020.(Xinhua/Wei Ying)

Investors cannot fully assess the situation of COVID-19 infections in the United States as the cases are underreported due in part to the lack of testing, and that credible solutions are absent, Phillip Colmar, managing partner on global strategy with MRB Partners, told Xinhua.

“We’re gonna see a lot more volatility in the markets,” he said.

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Phillip Colmar, global macro strategist and managing partner at research firm MRB Partners, told WP that though a global recession driven by the coronavirus outbreak is “a non-trivial risk,” it’s not in the firm’s base case. He thinks that allegories to the 2008 financial crisis are largely misplaced. Colmar shared the equities he thinks will win out in this market, as well as the moves policymakers can make to re-start equity growth.

“I know the bond markets coming off that kind of fear are priced for a deep recession, a deflationary shock,” Colmar told WP. “But I just can’t come up with the numbers that make that make sense.”

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NEW YORK, March 7 (Xinhua) — The outbreak of novel coronavirus is going to cause “a lot more volatility” in the U.S. financial markets in the coming days, said a senior strategist with macroeconomic research body MRB Partners on Friday.

Investors could not fully assess the impact of COVID-19 on the United States as infections have been underreported due to a lack of testing and the health care sector has not provided credible solutions, said Phillip Colmar, managing partner on global strategy with MRB Partners.

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“The outlook is uncertain, or rather certainly bearish in the near term as quarantining spreads around the world, but with considerable doubt as to the duration and depth of the economic fallout,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note.

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Investors’ risk appetite will be rekindled and they will again seek higher yielding bonds as investors recalibrate their assessment of growth prospects in 2020, said MRB Partners.

“In our view, they will conclude that while the immediate impact on Q1 (quarter 1) and possibly Q2 (quarter 2) is negative, there is no risk of global recession in 2020,” said MRB Partners, citing positive developments in the fight against the novel coronavirus in China.

Low yields and interest rates, as well as dovish central banks in developed economies will “push” investors to seek better portfolio returns, noted MRB Partners.

Researchers with MRB Partners told Xinhua that the beneficiaries of this rotation will be high-yield segments in developed markets as well as emerging market bonds in general, in particular the highest yielder.

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“Global investors will be prone to panic as the virus arrives at their doorstep, underscoring the need for near-run prudence and patience before augmenting favored holdings,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote. “The outlook is uncertain, or rather certainly bearish in the near term as quarantining spreads around the world, but with considerable doubt as to the duration and depth of the economic fallout.”

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“Global investors will be prone to panic as the virus arrives at their doorstep, underscoring the need for near-run prudence and patience before augmenting favored holdings,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. “The outlook is uncertain, or rather certainly bearish in the near term as quarantining spreads around the world, but with considerable doubt as to the duration and depth of the economic fallout.”

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Analysts from MRB Partners said they do not expect the global economy to stumble into recession, but cautioned investors to “be prepared for a volatile, and periodically difficult, next few months.”

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“Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months,” strategists at MRB Partners said in a note. “Nevertheless, the macro backdrop is sufficiently positive, and likely to remain so, to suggest that no worse than a digestion phase or mild correction will be necessary to better align equity prices with the slow-moving uptrend in earnings.”

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“At the margin, the employment report is likely to reinforce the Fed’s message that the policy rate will remain steady for the foreseeable future, barring future trade policy shocks,” said Prajakta Bhide, strategist at MRB Partners. “Unless the trade policy environment worsens meaningfully, we expect that Fed policy will likely remain on hold until after the elections next November.”

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“A credible and sizable positive trade announcement could expedite a turn for the better, although there is no sign of such an outcome,” strategists at MRB Partners wrote in a note. “There is considerable uncertainty on many fronts, including weak global trade and manufacturing activity, a generally protectionist trade backdrop, and many domestic and international political hotspots.”

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We have received fantastic feedback from our clients in California after Phillip Colmar‘s visit last week. Founding Partner and Global Strategist spoke at the CFA Society Event in Sacramento where we discussed MRB’s view on the persistent undercurrent of political instability.

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Mehran Nakhjavani was the invited speaker at the China Summit, Main Plenary of the 2020 Fund Forum Asia and Inside ETFs Asia in Hong Kong on 14 October 2019. The day addressed the issue of whether China is still the engine for global economic growth.

“Having been equity bulls for most of the decade, we are currently neutral,” said international investment advisory firm MRB Partners Inc. in a research note on Friday.

MRB said it would return to an overweight if political risks ebb and manufacturing activity firms up. Conversely, it would de-risk if the service and consumer sectors look to join the manufacturing sector on the downside.

MRB warned that instability and uncertainty from political backdrop is prolonging the sluggishness of global trade and could ultimately undermine economic risk-taking and eventually end the cycle.

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“Trade wars and isolationist policies pose a major threat heading forward, and are being fueled in part by the reduction in global trade and manufacturing jobs,” said Phillip Colmar, partner at MRB Partners, in a note. “So far, the direct impact has been modest, but the indirect impact on manufacturing sentiment and activity has been meaningful given the starting point of subdued global export demand.”

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MRB Partners strategist Prajakta Bhide thinks recessionary fears may be overblown. “The yield curve’s inversion this year is a symptom of external growth stress and powerful distortions in global bond yields and does not reflect restrictive Fed policy,” she said in a note. “Thus, it does not warrant a bearish economic interpretation.”

“Even if the inverted yield curve captures investor’s uncertainty about worsening global growth … a balanced perspective would still suggest that the odds of a recession in the next 12 months are no higher than 20%,” Bhide added.

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In a recent interview, Yan Arsenault from Trust Point provided some perspective on the next global recession, using The Global Trade Dominoes chart from MRB Partners. He outlined how a trade war could cause a recession but noted that it will not be as deep or long as the 2008-2009 fallout.

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“Gold is often thought of as an inflation hedge, yet the two have not been correlated over the past 20 years,” Phillip Colmar, founding partner at MRB Partners, said in a note earlier this month. “Instead, gold thrives and core consumer price inflation tends to rise in an environment where policymakers are deliberately and persistently keeping policy rates and bond yields anchored below nominal GDP growth (i.e. fueling growth and inflation with an easy policy), which was the case of the 1960s and 1970s.”

Colmar added we view the recent rise in gold prices as a market-based signal that central banks are providing more reflation (via lower interest rates and bond yields) than is currently necessary to support the global economy.”

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Phillip Colmar, estratego da consultora britânica MRB, sublinha que, nos casos da Austrália, Canadá e Reino Unido, a situação ultimamente “suavizou-se notavelmente”. O efeito temporário da queda dos juros “adiou um pouco o dia do acerto de contas”

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Clarien Investments has partnered with MRB Partners for over 5 years with great results for clients. Watch Phillip Colmar from MRB Partners, speaking about Geopolitical tensions and social unrest which are higher than ever due to the rise of populism and income inequality.

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Mr Colmar was speaking a day after an invitation-only presentation, “A Persistent Undercurrent of Political Instability”, for Clarien Investments Ltd clients at the Bermuda National Gallery. In demand worldwide, Mr Colmar has visited clients in Latin America, Europe, Asia, and South Africa in the last month alone. He has a BA in economics, a BBA (finance) from Bishop’s University in Montreal, and a MSc (finance) from Queen’s University in Ontario.

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Salvatore Ruscitti, U.S. equity strategist at MRB Partners, notes investors should remain cautious on semiconductors given their high exposure to China.

“Chip stocks will remain vulnerable until U.S./China trade negotiations improve. We recommend staying on the sidelines with a neutral stance,” he wrote in a note Thursday. “A further significant escalation in the U.S./China trade dispute that restricts access to the fast-growing Chinese market would represent a significant threat to the longer-term prospects of the semiconductor industry and warrant a downgrade of the sub-group to underweight.”

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“The recent flare-up in U.S./China trade tensions is a near-term negative for equities,” said Salvatore Ruscitti, equity strategist at MRB Partners, in a note. But “assuming the U.S. and China eventually reach a trade deal within the next few months, the weakness in equities should be temporary, and stock prices should move higher on a 6-12 month horizon.”

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Last Friday’s MRB Macro Strategy Report “Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V” addressed a number of the key topical investment issues, including a version of the “do great companies make great stocks?”. While U.S. stocks have outperformed in recent years and offer many compelling attributes (superior economic growth, more favorable sector composition, and better profitability), they do not offer good value when measured against comparative profitability. In other words, the U.S. is now comparatively expensive even adjusted for its superior profitability, with several key sectors trading at or near all-time relative valuation premiums. These premiums would be difficult to sustain if the relative earnings trend shifts away from the U.S. as global growth momentum firms anew, which is our base-case scenario. On a 6-12 month horizon, we recommend a mild underweight in U.S. equities, with select overweights in the EM, euro area and Japanese markets.

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Monetary policy is rendered somewhat impotent in economies that are deleveraging. This is because the supply and demand for credit are being influenced by something other than merely the cost of capital. Monetary policy can help slow deleveraging drags, but fiscal stimulus is often necessary to providing an offset and encourage a sustained economic expansion. This has been lacking in the euro area, which is why economic growth is subdued and prone to downside risks. A great deal of progress has been made in terms of balance sheet repair which makes the region more resilient than earlier this decade and more so than investors expect. Nonetheless, a fiscal offset would be helpful, at least until the deleveraging cycle runs its course.

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“A pullback in risk assets was needed, but underlying technical and fundamental conditions are positive,” Peter Perkins, partner at MRB Partners, wrote in a note to clients. “The global growth outlook remains mixed, but there are signs that economic growth momentum in China and the euro area is bottoming, while the U.S. economy continues to chug along at a moderately above-potential pace.”

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After the wild ride in global financial markets over the past several months, there is considerable uncertainty about prospects going forward. Such sentiment has been the case for much of the current decade, because the environment has been unusual on so many fronts – economic, policy and market trends. Lacking a roadmap, most investors’ time horizons seem to have shrunk to the very short term, reflecting a low conviction in how the future may unfold.

Last week’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy “The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio” updated the MRB TradeBook, and modified a number of positions. It also examined the outlook beyond the current cycle, and how it might unfold based on developing trends and themes that we have identified. The main conclusion was that the next global recession would likely witness a major reset of investor expectations and kickstart several multi-year asset price trends. To this end, the report provided a number of multi-year recommendations, several of which can either be acted upon now, or at least gradually augmented in the coming year or two.

MRB is participating in the BCI Global Investment Conference in Stellenbosch, South Africa on 15th and 16th May 2018. Peter Perkins will be speaking on the independent research panel on the second day of the event.

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Global Independent Research Conference

MRB is participating in the fourth Global Independent Research Conference in London on Thursday 1st March 2018. Peter Perkins will be speaking on the Global Macro panel and Adam Wolfe will take part in the Emerging Markets panel.

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The MRB London office has moved to 39 Houndsditch, 4th Floor, London EC3A 7DB. Please note our phone number has changed to +44 20 3667 2160.

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