MRB on Bites – June 13, 2023

Many economists are overestimating the likelihood of a recession over the next year, Phillip Colmar, managing partner, global strategy at the MRB – The Macro Research Board, tells Aerial View. That’s because their base case assumes the 2010s represent equilibrium, he explains. Colmar says that was an outlier period in history, with the household and banking sectors deleveraging and some other drags after the housing bust. He says economists worry due to that base case that as the cost of capital rises it will hinder the world economy and therefore they’ve been underestimating where interest rate levels need to be.

View episode: Click Here