februay 2026
The Clash Between Higher Bond Yields And Dovish Policymakers
Cyclical macro forces point to higher developed market bond yields over the course of 2026. While higher yields would be reflective of stronger nominal economic growth, it could eventually pose a problem for the more expensive parts of the global equity market (namely frothy U.S. stocks).
Central banks maintain a dovish bias, policy efforts to dampen bond yields will likely prove unsuccessful, since it will amplify inflation tail risks and lead to an increased term premium. Other unorthodox policies by the U.S. Administration are likely to heighten financial market volatility and weaken the U.S. dollar.
Today’s report showcases MRB’s latest research on this topic and recommend that investors remain below benchmark bond duration (especially in Japan, Germany, and the U.S. bond markets), while holding inflation-protected securities and favoring credit. We also recommend betting from the continued rotation in global equity leadership toward select non-U.S. markets.
JANUARY 2026
Investment Strategy For 2026
The key for investment strategy in 2025 was correctly deciphering the net impact of conflicting policy forces: pro-growth monetary and fiscal stimulus throughout much of the developed world versus the stagflation impulse from the U.S. trade war and anti-immigration policies. MRB’s unique framework approach and ability to map causality enabled us to generate some substantial wins, while avoiding the temptation to forecast extreme economic and asset market outcomes. And once again, those forecasting a recession proved “premature”.
The key for investment strategy in 2026 will be correctly sorting out the conflicting forces between accommodative (or early-cycle) policy settings amidst a mature (or late-cycle) economic and investment environment that already has pockets of speculative froth.
Today’s report showcases MRB’s 2026 Outlook reports, which provided a general roadmap for investment strategy, albeit we expect many twists and turns as the year progresses. Stay tuned.
december 2025
Central Bank Pause Club Expands, What’s Next?
One of our macro themes in recent months has been the end of policy easing cycles for several major central banks. The next eventual move for some will likely be to hike rates, despite current bond market expectations.
Developed market central banks made a dovish misstep by cutting policy rates well into accommodative territory in 2025. This will boost economic growth in 2026 and skew inflation risks to the upside, especially given that fiscal policy continues to provide unprecedented stimulus amidst an economic expansion.
Most central banks have now moved to the sidelines, ending the synchronized easing cycle. We expect this “pause club” will persist throughout much of 2026, albeit with some central banks (most notably the ECB) contemplating joining the BoJ in hiking rates by the end of the year. The Fed is a wildcard, given the aggressive demands for further rate cuts by the U.S. Administration.
Accommodative policy is generally supportive of global equities and risk asset markets in general. However, upside inflation surprises and higher policy rate expectations should push up government bond yields next year, heightening financial market volatility.
NOVEMBER 2025
Inflation Risks: Greater Than Investors Think
The Fed and bond investors have persistently bet on a return to the low and stable inflationary environment that preceded the pandemic. Instead, most drivers of price pressures warn that the global economy will remain prone to upside inflation surprises.
This Ideas Of The Month report showcases some key charts from MRB’s recent research on the drivers of underlying inflation pressures. Our analysis warns that most monetary authorities and bond investors are too complacent about inflation risks, and will eventually find themselves again wrongfooted.
We continue to recommend that investors hold inflation protection and remain underweight bond duration within a fixed-income portfolio.
October 2025
The Case For Diversifying Global Equity Exposure
The aggregate U.S. equity market has stretched valuations, elevated earnings expectations, and extreme leverage to the A.I. theme. Prudence argues for diversifying within the U.S. equity market and/or abroad where stocks are less frothy, have greater scope for upside earnings surprises and less downside potential in case a risk-off phase develops.
This report provides key highlights from MRB’s recent research and showcases 25 charts that make the case for diversifying away from the high-flying parts of the U.S. equity market.
September 2025
Sell The News Again: 15 Bond Bearish Charts
Bond bulls are optimistic about pending Fed rate cuts, but the macro backdrop warns that the Fed is about to make another dovish mistake. This could stoke inflation risks, leading to a greater bond term premium and higher Treasury yields. We recommend staying short duration.
In August 2024, MRB made a bold and non-consensus call that investors should “sell the news” and short U.S. Treasurys upon the first Fed rate cut. This panned out perfectly as bond yields rose sharply when the Fed cut 50 bps in September 2024. We are now inclined to provide the same advice as the Fed has signaled that it will resume rate cuts later this month.
This report provides key highlights from MRB’s recent research and 15 charts that should make U.S. bond bulls worried. We recommend remaining short duration and underweight government bonds within global fixed-income and multi-asset portfolios.
AUGUST 2025
Is The Fed Poised To Make Yet Another Dovish Mistake?
Fed policy is not restrictive, and the U.S. economy does not warrant rate cuts. The Fed’s determination to provide additional monetary stimulus should be regarded as another dovish misstep that will ultimately bear inflationary consequences and spur the next upleg in Treasury yields.
The Federal Reserve has an entrenched dovish bias is setting up to cut interest rates in September. At the same time, the U.S. Administration has been clear that it wants a dramatic shift to an extremely accommodative policy setting and is now considering a list of uber-doves to replace Fed Chair Powell when his term is up in May.
That said, MRB’s research has highlighted that labor conditions are firmer than generally perceived, while the latest inflation data show that the underlying rate has troughed at levels well above the Fed’s target, and may be starting to edge up. FOMC doves and the bond market are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in material rate cuts unless the Fed is content on abandoning its policy mandates.
Monetary policy is not restrictive, fiscal policy is very accommodative, the depreciation in the U.S. dollar this year has provided reflation, and financial markets are signaling that liquidity conditions are plentiful. Cutting rates would be another dovish policy mistake, albeit one that the central bank appears determined to make.
This report provides key highlights from MRB’s recent research reports and webinars, which have provided in-depth analysis on this topic.
JULY 2025
U.S. Economy: Constructive But With Key Caveats
U.S. Equities: Pockets Of Appeal
U.S. policy and its impact on the economy remain a major focus for investors. Indeed, there are substantial near- and long-term consequence stemming from increased fiscal spending, political pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates, and renewed talk of dialing up the trade war.
MRB’s view remains relatively constructive on the outlook for the U.S. economy over the near term, owing in part to its solid underlying fundamentals and ability to withstand shocks. However, the key caveats to this constructive view include: the trade war does not intensify again and/or bond investors do not become unnerved by the inflationary consequences of the current policy trajectory and become reluctant to use their savings to absorb Treasury issuance. Both tail risks need to be monitored closely.
Despite our constructive outlook for the U.S. economy, we continue to favor equities and currencies in non-U.S. markets which offer better valuations and more favorable macro drivers. That said, we still find pockets of the U.S. equity market appealing for global portfolios, including financials and industrials.
This report provides key highlights from MRB’s recent research reports and webinars, which have provided in-depth analysis on these topics.
JUNE 2025
The Great Rotation From U.S. Equities & The Dollar
Extreme U.S. policies have provided a wakeup call for global investors, highlighting the imprudence of holding an excessive allocation to U.S. assets. The start of what is likely a prolonged multi-year diversification away from dollar-based assets has begun.
MRB has been more constructive than the consensus on the foundations underpinning the U.S. economy. We have not prematurely called for a U.S. recession. However, we have been more negative on the financial market impact of isolationist policies. U.S. policymakers have been fixated on the perceived negatives of globalization, but protectionist policies are not a solution as these threaten to unwind the huge benefits obtained in recent decades, including the gains in U.S. corporate profitability and the massive financial market returns.
U.S. equities and the dollar have been overvalued for a long time, but the macro foundations supporting the U.S. exceptionalism theme and extreme financial asset pricing are now cracking. In turn, investors are likely to seek greater diversification elsewhere. The MRB Asset Allocation Strategy currently recommends an underweight allocation to U.S. equities within global equity portfolios. We are also underweight the U.S. dollar, while betting on a bear steepening of the U.S. Treasury curve. Likewise, the MRB Absolute Return Strategy prefers non-U.S. equities, with a long position in EM Asian stocks and long/short position in euro area versus U.S. equities.
April 2025
U.S. Dollar: Oversold, But More Depreciation Ahead
The U.S. dollar has suffered from investors rotating out of U.S. based assets. This trend will persist, at a point when most currency fundamentals point to substantial weakness ahead. Stay underweight or short the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. dollar has plunged since mid-January, with the DXY index depreciating 11%, benefiting many of MRB’s investment recommendations. Dollar weakness has been driven by heightened policy uncertainty and the shift to isolationism, which will continue to inflict more damage on the U.S. compared to most other economies, and lead to greater inflationary pressures. Extreme policies have also been the catalyst to end the U.S. exceptionalism theme and trigger capital flight out of U.S. financial markets, with euro area assets and the currency being the greatest beneficiary.
The U.S. dollar is now oversold from a short-term perspective and could bounce, as the Trump administration signals a willingness to pare back both tariffs on China and its attack on Fed Chair Powell in order to avoid triggering a full-blown crisis in the Treasury market. Nonetheless, currency fundamentals point to an eventual much deeper deprecation of the U.S. dollar from a cyclical and structural perspective.
March 2025
Euro Area: From Entrenched Pessimism To Budding Optimism
The fraying of the U.S. exceptionalism narrative is encouraging investors to reconsider the euro area. Many are finding their previous pessimism was unjustified.
Our constructive view on the euro area economy and the relative performance of its risk asset markets was very controversial when we promoted it late last year. However, the consensus is rapidly capitulating to our view, benefiting MRB’s Absolute Return Strategy and Asset Allocation Strategy recommendations.
This report showcases several charts and research underpinning our upbeat outlook.
February 2025
U.S. Equities: Priced For Exceptionalism
U.S.-Led Trade War: A Losing Policy
This month we are highlighting two areas of research that are paramount for investment strategy. The first is our analysis which concludes that U.S. equity prices and earnings expectations fully reflect the “exceptionalism” narrative, making performance (at least in relative terms) vulnerable to disappointment and/or rising Treasury yields.
The second topic is the U.S.-led trade war. History and economic theory warn that nobody wins in a trade war, rather everyone loses to varying degrees. That said, our research points to a non-consensus view that the U.S. may also have considerably less leverage than perceived. We suspect that President Trump’s bark on tariffs will be greater than his actual bite, but if a tit-for-tat trade war were to escalate, global equities and the global economy would suffer, with U.S. equities possibly losing the most.
January 2025
New Investment Strategy For A New Year
The key to MRB’s success in 2024 was understanding that Fed rate cuts were not required, yet would occur, and that the U.S. economy would continue expanding at a rapid above-potential pace. It was a winning strategy to position for easy monetary and financial conditions, and eventually a rolling back of expectations for future deep Fed rate cuts.
We expect the key to investment strategy in 2025 will be understanding that U.S. core CPI inflation is levelling off at a much higher level than the Fed and bond investors currently expect, which will force an upward revision in inflation expectations and bond yields. This will create periodic and meaningful turbulence for risk assets as the year progresses. However, select global risk asset markets should perform better (at least in relative terms) as the trade cycle improves further and the U.S. exceptionalism theme crests.
Today’s report showcases MRB’s 2025 Outlook reports, which provides a general roadmap for investment strategy, albeit we expect many twists and turns as the year progresses. Stay tuned.
December 2024
It has been an eventful month for financial markets following the U.S. election. Investors have piled further into the “U.S. exceptionalism” trade, at the expense of other regional asset markets, including the euro area. However, with relative price trends now stretched, it is crucial to dig deeper into the foundations supporting this investment theme.
Today’s report highlights our latest research on the impact of Trump’s various policy proposals, which include a conflicting mix of pro-growth fiscal stimulus and stagflationary isolationism. We also flag our latest work on the euro area, which provides a fresh and somewhat less pessimistic perspective on the prospects for the economy and regional risk asset markets.
November 2024
Today is the U.S. presidential election, and the investment community will be focused on the outcome in what has been another close race. The U.S. election and the implications of either party winning have been a core area of MRB’s research this year.
The September issue highlighted two key risk areas that both parties have in common, namely the desire to run wider government budget deficits, and the pursuit of protectionist policies. Both could lift U.S. inflation and the Treasury market term premium.
Today’s report showcases our latest research on the potential impact for U.S. equity sectors, which we hope helps serve as a roadmap for clients when the election outcome is ultimately decided.
September 2024
The U.S. election is only nine weeks away and is set to be yet another close race. Our research will continue to address the key issues related to the election as well as any potential shifts in policy that could have a material impact on the economy and/or financial markets. For the most part, other forces asides the next President will determine capital markets trends, unless the new administration pushes through policies that substantially influences growth or inflation. Two areas that both parties have in common where this could occur is the desire to run wider government budget deficits, and the pursuit of protectionist policies. This month we are highlighting some of our latest research on these topics.
August 2024
It has been a volatile month for financial markets, with each of the major equity indexes experiencing a major drawdown (particularly mega-cap growth stocks) and bond yields melting, before stabilizing more recently. MRB’s research has focused on the three major factors that drove the recent shakeout, namely:
- The reality check and shakeout in previously high-flying U.S. growth stocks, which has further go run according to our research, albeit with limited contagion for the overall economy.
- The unwinding of yen carry trades, which may persist but likely in a more orderly way.
- The recent U.S. growth scare, which should subside given the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy.
July 2024
This month we are highlighting our latest research on three key U.S. topics that are crucial for investment strategy:
- The stealth rise in the long-term expectations for Fed policy rates will have a much more dramatic and lasting repercussion for U.S. Treasury yields than the timing of a rate cut. The floor underneath U.S. Treasury yields has risen substantially, and it would likely take a recessionary outcome for yields to fall much below current levels.
- In this regard, economic bears betting on a fallout in U.S. consumption will be wrongfooted yet again. The household sector remains more resilient to higher interest rates than generally perceived, and the recent uptick in unemployment has been driven by an increased supply of labor (largely due to the surge in immigration), rather than weakening economic activity.
- Finally, a major air pocket has developed underneath high-flying U.S. mega-cap stocks, at a point when bond yields are unlikely to provide support. The mania-like buying frenzy has caused these share prices to vastly outstrip earnings performance. At a minimum, there is likely to be a broadening of the equity rally to some of the laggard sectors with better earnings and valuation support, including financials, energy, and health care.
June 2024
This month we are highlighting our latest research on the U.S. economy. Select growth and inflation data softened over the past month after a very strong start to the year. However, a broad set of the latest high-frequency economic data indicates that the U.S. economy will continue to grow at an above-potential rate, and that inflation is likely to prove stickier than expected.
We also provide our perspective on ECB rate cuts. Bond investors are looking for this to be the start of a significant and sustained easing cycle. In contrast, our research suggests that the ECB will have only a modest window, since the economy is firming, and inflation (particularly in the service sector) will remain elevated.
Finally, we updated our research on long-term returns. Global balanced portfolios will generate lower real returns in the coming 10 years than in recent decades. As a result, tactical portfolio management over the economic cycle will play a crucial role in enhancing long-term performance.
May 2024
This month we are highlighting our latest research supporting our overweight recommendation to U.S. energy and bank stocks. Both sectors are attractively priced and should deliver upside earnings surprises.
We are also highlighting our theme of diverging central bank policies across the developed world. Our research shows that the Fed, ECB and BoJ are too dovish, while some of the central banks in the weak-link economies (including the BoC and BoE) will need to become more supportive.
Finally, we are showcasing our recent video on secular stagnation, which goes a long way to help understand why bond investors and the Federal Reserve (along with the other major central banks) have repeatedly been wrongfooted. We offer an alternative framework and outline some opportunities ahead as the consensus continues to capitulate.
April 2024
This month we are focusing on our recent research on consumer price inflation. Last week’s U.S. CPI print was the 3rd upside surprise this year, sending bond yields up sharply. However, this was consistent with our non-consensus call for “no landing” in the U.S. economy, sticky inflation, and a closing window for material Fed rate cuts.
The bond market and central banks have been overly complacent in terms of the outlook for inflation. Our research continues to highlight that price pressures are broad based and supported by solid cyclical forces. In turn, we remain below benchmark duration and underweight government bonds within a global multi-asset portfolio.
March 2024
This month we highlight our recent research which warns that U.S. mega-cap stocks have become frothy, dramatically concentrating risks for equity investors. It is time to diversify to other parts of the U.S. and global equity market. We recommend adding exposure to sectors/regions with greater valuation support and where earnings expectations are achievable.
Continuing with this theme, we also flag the latest research supporting our overweight allocation on Japanese equities and the yen. Japanese fundamentals have improved and should support ongoing strength of domestic asset prices.
Finally, we revisit our longstanding theme that the Fed and the bond market are now mirroring (inversely) the early- to mid-1980s. It is key to understand the extremely slow transitions of central bank and investor perceptions during the previous shift in the secular inflation trend should continue to be valuable for investment strategy in the years to come.
February 2024
This month we are highlighting our research on the U.S. economy and one of the major themes for 2024, namely that we are heading for a “no landing” scenario of continued above-trend economic growth. The latest economic data has rapidly reinforced our view. While the Fed and bond investors have had to begrudgingly admit that growth conditions are firming, both are trying to make the case that inflation (and therefore Fed rate cuts) is not linked to economic activity. They are wrong, which sets the stage for a policy mistake with intermediate-term inflation consequences, and a problem for the U.S. Treasury market as the year progresses.
January 2024
This month we highlight our 2024 outlook reports for the global economy, policy, and each major asset class. Financial asset markets ended last year riding a wave of optimism that was triggered by the Fed’s pivot to an easing bias. However, Goldilocks is now well discounted in both the equity and bond market, setting the stage for 2024 being another year with some major swings along the way.
The 2024 Outlook reports covered include:
- Global Economy & Policy
- Global Fixed Income
- Foreign Exchange & Commodities
- Regional Equities
- U.S. Equity Sectors
December 2023
This month our research focused on three different investment horizons:
- The first is the immediate issue of how long the current Goldilocks phase for equities will persist. We expect it will prove brief and likely end by early next year.
- The second is MRB’s 2024 outlook for the global economy and central bank policy, where we expect some significant divergences next year. This should have a material impact for fixed-income and currency markets.
- Finally, we updated our research on long-term returns. Global balanced portfolios will generate lower real returns in the coming 10 years than in recent decades. As a result, tactical portfolio management over the economic cycle will play a crucial role in enhancing long-term performance.
November 2023
This month we focus on the aftermath of the recent rise in bond yields. Our research calls for another extended consolidation (which appears to be now underway), but not the start of a sustained bond bull market. We also update our outlook for the global economic expansion given the rise in bond yields. We are not yet calling for a recession, but recommend focusing on our list of global “weak links” for signs of cracks.
Finally, we provide the case for some renewed strength in global equities but with a rotation beyond the U.S. market. Non-U.S. equities are cheaper but require sustained earnings tailwinds. A pickup in both the global trade cycle and semiconductor cycle should provide such a catalyst.
October 2023
In lieu of our regular Charts Of The Month publication, we are highlighting a chartpack on global weak-link economies with household sector excesses, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K. The latest surge in developed market bond yields threatens to burst the bubbles in home prices and household debt in many of these weak links, which have become very interest-rate sensitive.
September 2023
This month we highlight our latest fixed-income research, which reinforces our view that the bond bear market remains intact. The global economy is firming (led by the U.S.) and inflation will not ease enough to provide central banks with a case to cut policy rates.
In addition, we showcase our latest work on the euro area economy, which is more constructive than the consensus narrative. Conversely, we provide a warning for the Canadian economy, given that the twin bubbles in home prices and household debt make this economy vulnerable in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
August 2023
This month we highlight our latest research on the U.S. consumer, which reinforces our view for durable consumer spending in the months ahead, supported by strong household balance sheets and solid income gains. Indeed, the latest data delivered another tough blow for economy bears and the recession camp.
We also outlined MRB’s framework for asset manias, and compared the current macro backdrop with the factors that have traditionally led to bubble episodes. For the first time in decades, there is now a consumer price inflation consequence of providing forceful monetary and fiscal stimulus, which has the potential to make the world much less bubbly. Finally, as part of this mania theme, we highlight our latest research on Artificial Intelligence.
July 2023
This month we highlight our latest research supporting our longstanding view that the global cost of capital has not reached a tipping point for the global economy. Given our constructive macro outlook, we are maintaining a mildly pro-growth investment stance, but note that a calm bond market will be the key to sustaining the current risk-on environment. Another upside breakout in U.S. and G7 bond yields above the October 2022 highs would inject substantial volatility and potentially renewed selling pressure across financial asset markets, much like experienced in 2022.
Moreover, we are outlining our recent work on the narrowed breadth of the global equity rally and caution about the mounting risks in U.S. growth stocks. Investors should take this opportunity to progressively rotate into select laggard markets that offer durable earnings and more appealing valuation support to offset a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
June 2023
This month we highlight our latest research on long-term returns which highlights that global balanced portfolios will generate much lower real returns over the next 10 years compared with recent decades. In addition, we flag our recent work on our more constructive non-recession call. Finally, we showcase some of our equity research, which warns against chasing the rally in U.S. technology stocks and instead recommends that clients favor some of the global equity laggards.
May 2023
This month we highlight our latest research supporting our more constructive non-recession call for the U.S. economy. While most traditional recession indicators are flashing warnings, this is being driven solely by survey expectations or “soft” data. Much of the “hard” data has been improving in recent months, and there is now evidence that U.S. housing and manufacturing have bottomed. The latter would be a substantial blow to the recession camp.
We also showcase recent work on the desynchronization of the U.S. profit cycle, which has been one of our core U.S. equity themes. We net out that investors should maintain a balanced portfolio stance, favoring the financial, health care, and communication services sectors.
Finally, we flag our research on emerging market equities and reiterate our overweight bias. Note that the case is strongest in China, where the path ahead is paved with an improving earnings backdrop, supportive policy conditions, attractive valuations and positive investor positioning.
April 2023
This month we highlight our latest research on the casualties from interest rate normalization. Blowups tend to occur during periods when interest rates and bond yields rise meaningfully. The current cycle has already had fallouts in the crypto space, innovation stocks, select growth stocks, and a few financial institutions.
The key is determining how many economic and asset market dominos need to topple before there is sufficient contagion to cause a global recession. Our research suggests that the world is not yet at that point. However, the economic and investment cycles have matured, so it is paramount that investors regularly assess the vulnerable segments of the global economy.
We also flag our research on the impact from China’s demographic decline. China’s population is aging fast and will decline in absolute terms. However, the implications of its aging population are complex and certainly not unambiguously negative. Investors should expect a secular erosion in underlying GPD growth, but with a substantial transition away from investment and towards services. China savings rate will also decline, and the country is likely to shift to a current account deficit, which means domestic authorities will continue to push hard to solidify the yuan’s status as a world reserve currency.
March 2023
This month we highlight how investors are progressively capitulating to our view that the global economy is not heading for a recession this year, which will warrant even higher interest rates than are currently discounted. In turn, we continue to recommend stocks that offer relative valuation cushions and better earnings upside to offset rising bond yields, such as euro area and emerging Asian markets, as well as U.S. and euro area financials and industrials. Lastly, we also note that given our expectation that bond yields will ultimately rise to new cyclical highs, we expect gold and cryptocurrencies to face headwinds, albeit relative performance will be superior for gold.
February 2023
This month we are highlighting our latest U.S. research, which still includes a more upbeat view on the economy and stickier than expected consumer price inflation. Nonetheless, the (temporary) easing in inflationary pressures in the first half of the year will allow the Fed to pause its tightening campaign beyond the next few months and should encourage a further consolidation in bond yields.
The combination of positive U.S., euro area and Chinese economic growth and calm G7 bond yields should continue to support risk-on over the next few months, until it becomes clear that core inflation is not headed back to the subdued levels of the 2010s.
Finally, we reiterate our preference for euro area and Korea equities as pro-growth markets that are poised to benefit further from a more resilient global growth backdrop.
January 2023
This month we highlight our 2023 outlook reports for each asset class. The massive monetary distortion that subsidized risk taking since the pandemic fallout was abruptly unwound in 2022, at the expense of multi-asset portfolios. The economic, policy and investment cycles are now aligned at a mature phase. In turn, investors will need to be much more tactical this year to capture various risk on/off swings. Major and persistent directional moves in financial asset markets are not likely until the next recession, which is still not imminent despite widespread expectations of an approaching downturn.
The 2023 Outlooks covered include:
- Global Economy & Policy
- Global Fixed Income
- Foreign Exchange & Commodities
- Regional Equities
- U.S. Equity Sectors
December 2022
This month we are featuring our research on long-term returns which highlights that global balanced portfolios will generate much lower real returns over the next 10 years compared with recent decades. Additionally, we provide our latest research on developed economies with excessive household sector leverage that are vulnerable to rising interest rates and/or weaker economic activity (i.e. the global “weak links”). Finally, we examined how the U.S. profit cycle is likely to evolve next year, specifically with notable divergences among sectors that will remain desynchronized.
November 2022
This has been a brutal year for multi-asset portfolios, with both bonds and equities suffering substantial losses, as well as commodities. After a long stretch where the surprises have largely been disappointments, we highlight our report last month that asked the question what could go right and lead to at least a temporary reversal of the current financial market trends? For the most part this means an outcome where the upward adjustment in interest rate expectations and bond yields pauses, yet global growth prospects improve a notch.
Additionally, we analyzed the latest inflation data, where gauges of underlying inflation show that the breadth of the rise extends beyond rents, and its implications for the potential upcoming Fed pivot.
Finally, we highlight our call for EM local currency debt to continue outperforming EM dollar debt (as well as G7 government bonds).
October 2022
The recent bond market riot has put many investors on edge and has become the central topic of asset allocation strategy. This month we highlight several reports that help clients frame the extreme volatility in government bonds and capital markets with respect to investment strategy. In short, the global economy is not yet at a tipping point, but the rise in the cost of capital now threatens to destabilize the imbalanced segments of the global economy (our list of so-called “weak links”). The outlook has deteriorated and financial contagion strains are a risk after more than a decade of depressed bond yields. Over the past month, we have downgraded holdings in various global weak links.
September 2022
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy, while the U.S. economy downshifts from last year’s boom, the euro area faces an energy crisis and China undergoes another round of COVID-related lockdowns. Together these headwinds have heightened recession fears among investors. This month we are highlighting a report that provided a basic framework with a series of questions investors should ask themselves about the current macro backdrop to determine if it is prudent to position for a pending recession, or not. In short, our assessment is that it is premature to do so, although we recommend not being overly dogmatic.
Additionally, we highlight our latest research on the slumping U.S. housing market. Housing demand has dropped sharply and home price growth will fade gradually, reflecting a very low level of existing and completed new homes available for sale.
Finally, we flag our downgrade of U.S. chemical stocks to underweight from neutral earlier this month. The relative forward earnings momentum of the sub-group is poised to weaken as chemical shipment growth materially decelerates and chemical manufacturers throttle back production.
August 2022
The consensus shifted this year to embrace the call for a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy. There are many simultaneous headwinds feeding this investor anxiety, including higher inflation, monetary “tightening”, the war in Ukraine, and lockdowns in China. However, a considerable amount of bad news is now discounted-in financial assets, at a point when economic sentiment has become too bearish.
Last month our research challenged the validity of several core macro assumptions made by central banks and many investors. This has reinforced our non-consensus call for a pronounced mid/late-cycle slowdown, rather than typical recessionary outcome. We also provided analysis of what is now discounted in financial asset markets. We concluded that there is room for global equities to bounce further, provided interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm, as we expect. The bear market in government bonds is not over, but a further digestion phase should be expected while oversold conditions unwind and consumer price inflation moderates.
July 2022
This month we are highlighting our increasingly out-of-consensus view that the U.S. and the global economy can avoid a traditional recession, which are accompanied by an economic cleansing, as opposed to something more technical and more akin to a material slowdown following an unprecedented boom. U.S. economic growth is decelerating, and there is a compositional rebalancing away from the goods economy to services. The widely followed goods economy and related indicators could appear recessionary for a few quarters, but it is very unlikely that overall final demand will contract, given the underlying support from healthy household balance sheets and solid growth in incomes. In turn, this rebalancing is better characterized as a period of payback for exceptionally strong growth in goods demand since the pandemic; the services sector has only partially recovered.
While we are more constructive on the U.S. economy than most, we are more negative on what we have identified as global “weak-link” economies that have housing bubbles and overstretched household sector finances. This includes Canada, which we focused on in a recent report. In contrast with the U.S. and the euro area, the Canadian economy is sitting on massive housing and credit imbalances that have been mushrooming for more than a decade and have been turbo-charged since the pandemic. The corollary is that the Canadian economy has become highly interest rate sensitive, leaving it vulnerable to a meaningful rise in borrowing rates and/or a fall in household incomes. The key challenge for investors is to determine when the bust phase will hit Canada, and the potential magnitude of contagion on the global economy and financial system.
Finally, we reiterate our view that the much-needed monetary policy tightening from central banks and cresting of the liquidity boom will continue to have severe negative knock-on effects for highly speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.
June 2022
This month we are highlighting our latest edition of the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle, which has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks. It is one of many tools that we use in determining appropriate investment strategy. However, the power of the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle is that it provides a starting point when building a multi-year roadmap, and even suggests what signposts investors should look for at major inflection points.
Separately, we updated MRB’s Long-Term Returns forecasts and our outlook is less upbeat relative to recent decades. Investors should expect low real returns on a multi-asset portfolio over the next decade, with bonds remaining a significant drag on overall performance.
Finally, we flag a recent report that extracted the key takeaways from the latest U.S. earnings reporting season and provides our expectations for corporate earnings and margins.
May 2022
This month we update our overall multi-asset positioning during these extraordinary times in financial markets. Both stocks and bonds are deeply oversold. However, equity markets are likely to continue to struggle until it is clear that the ratcheting up in interest rate expectations has truly paused. Such a shift is necessary to calm recession fears by reducing forecasts for an overshoot in policy rates. Ultimately, we are standing pat on our multi-asset recommendations on a 6-12 month horizon, including being underweight bonds and neutral stocks.
We also provide a roadmap for the bond bear market. The major conclusion is that the capitulation from the Fed (as well as other major developed market central banks) and bond investors is likely to play out in at least three phases of which only Capitulation Phase 1 is now completed.
Finally, we provide our framework for gauging the interest rate sensitivity of the euro area and give our latest thoughts on the euro currency.
April 2022
This month we are flagging our framework on how to interpret movements in various parts of the yield curve. In short, we would not read too much into the economic warnings provided by the inversion of some parts of the yield curve, which are at best very early (if not false) signals. Moreover, we outlined distortions at the long end of the curve that are contributing to a premature inversion in certain segments.
We also update our asset allocation recommendations as the market has been buffeted by the war in Ukraine and accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation. G7 government bonds are now cyclically oversold and a pullback in yields is increasingly likely in the near term, but the bond bear market has significantly further to run. Stay underweight, and maintain a neutral stance on global equities and overweight cash within multi-asset portfolios.
Finally, we updated our outlook for U.S. bank stocks. Historically, an inverted yield curve has raised concerns about bank profitability. However, this relationship has broken down since the Great Financial Crisis and we remain positive on the 6-12 month outlook for the sub-group’s relative performance.
March 2022
This month we highlight shifts in our multi-asset recommendations since the war in Ukraine erupted, as well as analysis of Russian assets and potential contagion for other EM debt markets. In short, some cautiousness is warranted, and we would not augment long equity or short bond holdings.
Separately, we added to our extensive research on inflation by extending the MRB Total Inflation Measure beyond the U.S. to include other G7 economies. The measure offers a more holistic perspective of the inflation pressures within an economy by including other sources of inflationary/disinflationary pressures beyond consumer price inflation. The latest readings should worry central banks and bond bulls!
Finally, with the great monetary unwind finally underway, we assess how high interest rates will have to rise before threatening the U.S. economic expansion. We conclude that the cost of capital will need to rise much further before the weak links break.
February 2022
We have advised clients to take advantage of market volatility by continuing to rotate towards laggard segments of the market including value over growth, non-U.S. versus the U.S., and small over large-cap. Moreover, investors should lighten up on growth equities as they bounce from deeply oversold levels. Typically, changes in leadership occur during corrections, and thus there are good odds of a rotation (albeit like most trends this year, it could be a choppy path).
Separately, we are highlighting a report that reflects on the risks associated with what we have termed “unanticipated inflation”. Finally, we flag our non-consensus call for a sustained ECB rate hiking cycle beginning next year, along with the important asset market implications.
January 2022
This month we highlighted our 2022 outlook reports for each asset class. This year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings. While solid economic growth is typically positive for risk assets, the steady unwinding of monetary accommodation in 2022 points to both lower returns for equities and losses for bonds, and greater volatility than has prevailed over the past 18 months.
The 2022 Outlooks covered include:
- Global Multi-Asset
- Global Fixed Income
- Foreign Exchange
- Regional Equities
- U.S. Equity Sectors
December 2021
Financial markets have experienced greater volatility as the new omicron variant increases economic uncertainty, and the Fed has hinted at an increased pace of unwinding monetary accommodation. The latter is being driven by upside inflation, which we had forecasted, and has finally forced Fed Chair Powell to admit that inflation is not transitory. A faster reduction of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets, at least initially.
Ultimately, our forecast that interest rates will climb further on a 6-12 month horizon and beyond, in conjunction with above consensus economic growth, warrants maintaining a moderately pro-growth investment posture, while holding a maximum overweight stance on cash to help shield portfolio performance against market volatility. Finally, we highlight MRB’s updated long-term returns forecasts, which suggest the investment landscape will prove much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
November 2021
The transitory inflation narrative is increasingly becoming questioned by investors, causing major moves in short-term interest rates and some peculiar shifts in G7 yield curves over the past few weeks. We highlight two reports that outline the major difference between MRB’s more constructive view and the consensus, with multi-asset investment implications. The discrepancy resides in how much the U.S., euro area, and global economy will downshift, and the longer-term outlook for inflation. We expect both will be stronger than most investors and central bankers perceive. Finally, we update our cautious view towards the semiconductor cycle.
October 2021
The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have made it difficult to determine where we are in the economic and policy cycle. The short answer is that the current landscape has elements of all three phases of the cycle. Additionally, we provide an update of our U.S. economic outlook as well as highlight a report on euro area inflation dynamics. Our research warns that the euro area economy is not as deflationary as perceived. Finally, we draw implications for investment strategy from all topics.
We hope you find this overview helpful. As always, do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
September 2021
This month we are highlighting two important thematic research reports that are likely to have longstanding implications for asset markets. First, we contrast between the evolving global macro backdrop and various longstanding (and stale) prevailing market narratives to identify several investment opportunities. Secondly, we rebut the widespread view that the U.S. economy will fall off a “fiscal cliff” next year. Lastly, we reiterate our overweight of the pharmaceuticals sub-group within the context of a diversified equity portfolio.
August 2021
Our research over the past month reinforced several of our out-of-consensus views. Specifically:
- The U.S. economy is more inflationary than the Fed and most investors perceive. The MRB Total Inflation Measure provides a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures and is now at the highest reading since 1980, indicating that price pressures are strong and broad-based. In addition, we created proprietary measures to capture the underlying trend in U.S. PCE inflation, which suggests that consumer price inflation will prove sticky and make a sustained push toward 3% and beyond on a cyclical basis.
- The U.S. and global economy will cool from the current boom but will not return to the mushy growth of the 2010s. China will downshift to trend growth but is not heading for a hard(ish) landing, the U.S. will moderate next year but will continue to run at a solid pace, and the euro area is accelerating with ample room to surprise on the upside.
We hope you find this overview helpful. As always do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
July 2021
Early last month we warned that growth stocks were oversold relative to their value counterparts and that a near-term bounce in relative performance was possible. The bounce has largely occurred, and we remain cautious on the relative performance outlook for growth stocks. Instead, investors should focus on value-oriented pockets of the market such as financials, energy, and health care. Separately, we updated our Long-Term Returns forecasts in June. The elevated starting point for equity, bond, credit and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade. Finally, we have written extensively about our out-of-consensus views on U.S. inflation and Treasury yields, which implies material upside risk for Treasury yields.
We hope you find this overview helpful. As always do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
June 2021
Excess liquidity created an environment ripe for overvaluation and speculative activity in several pockets of the market. While our base-case scenario is a consolidation phase in the global stock/bond ratio, investors should monitor the bond market closely. If bond yields were to resume the sharp upleg that paused in late-March, it could trigger a shakeout in equities. Additionally, we provide our latest analysis on the robust U.S. housing market and views on the recent runup in commodity prices. Conditions are not in place for another commodity supercycle, but the cyclical backdrop remains positive.
We hope you find this overview helpful. As always do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
May 2021
This month we take stock of the ISM® Manufacturing Index, one of the most heavily relied upon economic indicators by investors. The ISM’s current elevated reading provides a warning for equities since it has typically corresponded with subpar returns over the subsequent 3, 6, and 12-months. Additionally, strong U.S. economic growth expectations and seemingly pervasive supply chain bottlenecks have reignited the debate over whether there will be meaningful inflation upside. We expect that the underlying uptrend in inflation is already building and will prove more persistent than investors currently anticipate. Finally, we highlight our out-of-consensus call for the U.S. industrials sector. We remain positioned with a moderately pro-growth stance, and a value/cyclical orientation, but doubts over industrials relative earnings strength leaves us at a neutral allocation.
We hope you find this overview helpful. As always do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
April 2021
This month we examine the outlook for global equities on the back of their recent runup. In short, stocks are vulnerable to a consolidation or correction phase in the near term, but the positive earnings outlook should enable equity prices to rise further over the next 6-12 months. Additionally, we highlight our longer-term Investment Themes that derive from our Macro Themes. Finally, we highlight reports that analyze key topics in the foreign exchange market such as the U.S. dollar, EM currencies, and cryptocurrencies.
We hope you find this overview helpful. As always do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
March 2021
This month we highlight MRB’s big-picture macro themes that form the foundation for our longer-term investment strategy. The themes tend to be multi-year in nature, helping to provide useful frameworks and a longer-term roadmap to aid clients in setting their investment strategy. Separately, we provide perspective on the forthcoming U.S. fiscal stimulus and the potential for higher inflation in the years ahead. Moreover, we highlight a recent report that analyzes inflation hedges and recommends our preferred plays in a rising inflation environment.
We hope you find this overview helpful. As always do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
February 2021
Pockets of rampant speculative activity have erupted causing a bout of recent market volatility. This month we are highlighting reports that focus on our investment strategy in a backdrop of frothy markets prone to asset manias. We have a mildly pro-growth positioning and prefer to rotate into areas of better value/better growth opportunities, i.e. out of the U.S. dollar and gradually towards select non-U.S. equities as well as U.S. bank stocks. The latter remains among our top investment calls over a 1-2 year horizon. Finally, we highlight our latest thoughts on the Chinese financial markets and economy with our investment recommendations.
We hope you find this overview helpful. As always do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
January 2021
This month we highlighted our 2021 outlook reports for each asset class. Our strategy is to make selected bets on risk assets rather than embracing a full-on pro-growth investment posture, given stretched positioning and frothy sentiment in areas of the market. However, we find appeal in some of the laggards and hope that this overview is helpful in navigating the markets in the year ahead.
The 2021 Outlooks covered include:
- Global Multi-Asset
- Regional Equities
- U.S. Equity Sectors
- Global Fixed Income
- Foreign Exchange
December 2020
In the wake of two major events this past month, the U.S. election and the positive vaccine news, we are highlighting the adjustments we have made to our multi-asset portfolio. Namely, we have moved the overall EM equity benchmark to overweight within a global equity portfolio by reducing cash holdings. These moves are consistent with our big-picture outlook for an ongoing (even if choppy) economic recovery and the theme of an eventual rotation in currencies and equity market performance. However, conditions for such a broad-based rotation favoring non-U.S. markets have still not fully developed. Finally, we highlight our research on the impact the U.S. election will have on key equity sectors.
November 2020
This month we outlined our continued research on the U.S. election. While the result is still undetermined, our in-depth research reports, webcasts and webinars should prove helpful when positioning portfolios in the weeks ahead. We are also flagging the remarkable economic strength demonstrated by China, partially due to past structural rebalancing. This should have material implications on financials markets in the year ahead and beyond. Finally, we provide highlights from our recent work on long-term returns and the secular equity market outlook.
October 2020
This month we have highlighted our asset allocation strategy against a backdrop of richly priced equity and bond markets, with a few mega-cap stocks making outsized gains. Ultimately, we recommend a neutral weighting on equities, albeit with an upgrade bias. Further, we highlight our preferred absolute return plays outside of the high-flying Nasdaq stocks. As a complement to the reports above, we are highlighting our work on the hotly debated topic of growth versus value equities.
September 2020
This month we highlight two of our most popular thematic frameworks, namely the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle and how it ties together with what we term the Reflationary Bridge. We provide scenarios of where the global stock/bond ratio is heading based on the success of global policy reflation. Further, we examine investment opportunities in the traditional cyclical sectors of the euro area equity market and highlight our overweight positioning in EM FX and fixed-income markets.
August 2020
The recent U.S. dollar weakness has been among the major events in financial markets in the past month. A continuation of recent trends would have many important implications across asset classes. The reports we are highlighting this month focus on drivers of the currency markets and the potential for a longer-term broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, including the currency and equity market. As a complement to this theme, we are highlighting a report on China’s cyclical economic recovery and our recommendations for EM equity positioning.
July 2020
This document highlights charts that have resonated with clients in our discussions over the past month. We hope this overview is helpful. The charts address three prominent topics in MRB’s recent research:
- Asset Allocation In A Choppy Investment Backdrop
- Global Equities Demand A V-Shaped Earnings Recovery
- Perspective On The Dramatic Rise In U.S. Money Supply
June 2020
The reports that we have highlighted this month focus on the longer-term effects of the COVID-19 crisis on the global economy and financial markets. The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic following the huge amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus. We highlight a report that analyzes the factors that led to the 1970s inflationary environment and conclude that most do not currently exist. Nonetheless, we still expect a rise in inflation in the years ahead. Further, we update our Long-Term Returns forecasts and discuss the potential for a housing bust in Canada.
May 2020
This document highlights charts that have resonated with clients in our discussions and meetings over the past month. We hope this overview is helpful. The charts address three prominent topics in MRB’s recent research:
- Asset Allocation Strategy: Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks
- The Great Halt Of 2020: Comparing Imbalances Now Versus The Great Financial Crisis
- U.S. Equity Sectors: Outlook for Technology & Financials
April 2020
The reports that we have highlighted this month have helped investors grapple with the unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 pandemic. We highlight budding investment opportunities and draw from lessons from previous equity bear markets to provide a rough roadmap. We also outline the key U.S. economic indicators to monitor to gauge the depth and duration of the economic fallout. We hope you find this overview helpful. As always do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
March 2020
Markets have been highly volatile over the past couple of weeks as COVID-19 has spread globally. This month we highlighted our research that has helped clients navigate increased uncertainty regarding COVID-19, our out-of-consensus view on U.S. growth stocks, and our newly introduced MRB Euro Area Recession Checklist Indicator. We hope you find this overview useful. As always do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
February 2020
This month we highlighted our research on an out-of-consensus U.S. inflation call, the impact of the coronavirus in China and globally, and our latest thoughts on the multi-asset markets. We hope you find this overview useful. As always do not hesitate to contact us should you ever have any questions and/or research requests.
January 2020
2020 Outlooks
- Global Multi-Asset
- Regional Equities
- U.S. Equity Sectors
- Global Fixed Income
- Foreign Exchange
- Emerging Markets
MRB Mania Profiling
December 2019
- Equities Are Betting On A Trade Deal
- Dividends For The Long Run
- Euro Area Economy: Depressed But Turning A Corner?
November 2019
- Assessing The Outlook For Global Earnings
- MRB’s Long-Term Returns Forecasts
- U.S. Policy & Politics: The Fed, Impeachment And The Markets
October 2019
-
- A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications
- G7 Bonds: Pricing Too Bleak An Outcome
- China Economy: Some Softening Amidst A Broadly Stable Backdrop
September 2019
-
- A Fattening Of The Tail Risks
- Don’t Bet On The Japanification Of The U.S. And Euro Area
- U.S. Equity Sectors: Stuck In “No Man’s Land”
August 2019
- Clash Of Forces: Protectionism Versus Monetary Reflation
- Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts
- U.S. Politics: An Initial Framework
July 2019
- Why Trade Tensions Need To Sustainably Subside
- The Fed’s Reflationary OffsetM
- The Most Appealing Non-Dollar Bets
June 2019
- Protecting Profits
- MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Themes
- Updating MRB’s Long-Term Returns Forecasts
- U.S. Equities: Navigating Trade Uncertainties
May 2019
- U.S. Equity Sectors: Favor Quality And Growth
- Limitations & Risks Of Monetary Reflation This Cycle
- The World Is Less Deflationary Than Perceived
April 2019
- Reflation Top Up
- Emerging Market Equities: Overweight, But On A Narrowing Base
- U.S. Yield Curve: 5 Reasons Why This Time Is Different
March 2019
- Euro Area Recession Fears Are Overblown
- The Slow-Moving Secular Bond Bear Market
- U.S. Economy: Taking The Pulse
February 2019
- A Late-Cycle Shift Into Equities
- Shifting Fed Policy
- The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views
- Chinese Economy: A Modest Upturn Ahead?
January 2019
- U.S. Equity Sectors
- Developed Markets Foreign Exchange
- Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange
- Emerging Markets Fixed Income
December 2018
- The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle
- U.S. Corporate Debt: Vulnerabilities, But Blow-Up Fears Are Still Premature
- MRB Long-Term Returns Outlook
- The Great Equity Rotation
November 2018
- Policy Normalization And Implications For The Investment Cycle
- The Changing Equity/Bond Dynamic
- Global Growth Remains Resilient
- Growth Vs Value: Favor More Of A Barbell Approach
October 2018
- A Gradual Uptrend In Underlying Global Inflation
- Fed Policy: It’s All About Inflation
- Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange: Rebalancing For The Rebound
September 2018
- A Window Of Opportunity For Select Risk Assets
- U.S. Corporate Profits: Going Under The Hood
- A Fatigued U.S. Dollar
August 2018
- Lifting The Global Yield Anchors
- Implications Of The Upcoming Sector Reshuffling
- U.S. Corporate Debt: Are Concerns Overblown?
July 2018
- The Global Trade Cycle And The Threat Of Protectionism
- U.S. Equity Sectors Positioning Amidst Trade Uncertainty
- Euro Area Financial Markets Outlook/li>
June 2018
- Updating The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle
- Is Another EM Crisis Brewing?
- Don’t Fear The Flattener
- MRB’s Long-Term Returns: The Loss Of The Bond Anchor/li>
May 2018
- The New Macro Roadmap
- The Canaries For The Next Global Recession
- Growth Vs Value Stocks: Timing The Turn
- Chinese Banks: Earnings Are Looking Up
March 2018
- Transitioning To An Environment Of Higher Volatility
- Global Politics: A Tour Around The World
- Global Fixed Income Outlook
- The Outlook For Fed Policy
February 2018
- 3 of our 7 top multi-year investment ideas
- EM equities outlook with the looming China slowdown
- MRB’s annual overview of key macro and investment themes
December 2017
- Our non-consensus inflation outlook for 2018
- The outlook for Asia equities
- What could trigger a near-term correction in the equity market
October 2017
- Insights from the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle
- The outlook for Saudi Arabia and the oil market
- MRB’s long-term returns forecasts
- Signs of another China slowdown
September 2017
- The outlook for U.S. inflation and inflation expectations
- The fundamental factors affecting the oil market
- Revisiting MRB’s submerging world macro theme
- How to play the U.S. dollar
August 2017
- A non-consensus outlook for Fed policy
- The U.S. corporate sector’s financial health
- The outlook for the Chinese housing market
- Can German equities withstand a strong euro?
July 2017
- The potential for a synchronized unwinding of the great monetary experiment
- The outlook and opportunities within the technology sector
- The state of the deleveraging adjustment and outlook for the U.S. economy
June 2017
- Shifts in MRB’s Asset Allocation
- Emerging market equity positioning
- Updating MRB’s long-term returns outlook
- The outlook for oil prices
May 2017
- Tracking China’s opaque economy
- U.S. equity sectors allocation
- The outlook for Indian reforms
- Absolute return strategy and preferred bets
April 2017
- The outlook for the equity bull market
- Impact of China’s slowdown on commodity plays
- High-yield corporate bond valuation
- Euro area banking sector opportunities
March 2017
- The outlook for the equity bull market
- Impact of China’s slowdown on commodity plays
- High-yield corporate bond valuation
- Euro area banking sector opportunities
February 2017
- What is the cyclical and structural outlook for the U.S. dollar?
- Can Japanese banks outperform?
- Can emerging market equities outperform their developed market peers?
January 2017
- How to position for 2017?
- What would a “benign” de-globalization look like?
- How resilient is the euro area economy?
December 2016
- How to position in U.S. equity sectors post election?
- Where to invest during the backup in global bond yields?
- Amid the current rising tide of populism, what are the implications of a forced de-globalization?
- What is the outlook for oil prices after the OPEC deal?
- Will Latam equities continue to outperform?
November 2016
- How will the U.S. Presidential election alter the outlook for the energy, utility and financial sectors?
- Is secular stagnation the right framework?
- Will global equity markets experience another sustained upleg?
- Should investors worry about the Chinese housing market?
October 2016
- What are the implications for the economy and capital markets of the U.S. presidential candidates’ major policy platforms?
- What is the outlook for the U.S. health care sector under each presidential candidate?
- How are structural forces creating a wave of political instability?
- Is the Mexican peso at risk of a “tequila two” crisis?
- How long should investors hold long duration bets?
September 2016
- Is the Chinese economy set for a slowdown?
- How to assess credit quality for EM government bonds?
- What is the outlook for the U.S. housing market?
- What are the characteristics and outlook for the new MSCI equity real estate sector?
- Where across the globe can you find secure dividends?
August 2016
- Will the outlook for global earnings strengthen?
- How can investors capitalize on various monetary policy trends?
- Where are oil prices heading?
- Are business trends improving for the tech sector?
July 2016
- How should investors consider Brexit within a U.K. and global perspective?
- Will the U.S. economy and equity market continue to prove resilient?
- Are India and Indonesia the next China?
- Has policy reflation worked and where is it heading?
June 2016
- The Brexit Aftermath
- Impact On The Globe
- Are India And Indonesia The Next China?
- Monetary Policy: Reflating A Deleveraging World
May 2016
- Will three abnormally tight correlations hold? Namely, oil & risk assets, U.S. dollar & regional equities, parallels with late-1990s
- Are global earnings stronger than you think?
- Will rising inflation hurt U.S. Treasurys?
- How To Play Brazil?
- Is Abenomics failing?