MRB TradeBook Update – July 9, 2021


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MRB TradeBook Update – July 9, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
 · Equities · 

The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – July 2, 2021
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Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.



 

Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.



 

U.S. Economy – Indicators To Watch -June 30, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With U.S. COVID-19 infections holding low and fiscal transfers providing continued support, the U.S. recovery gathered momentum in Q2, with real GDP likely growing by around 10% annualized.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – June 25, 2021
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Equity Sectors – U.S. Bank Stocks: Buy On Weakness – June 25, 2021
 · Equities · 

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Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.



 

Webcast – Fed Policy: A Step Back From “FAIT”? – (8min:21sec) – June 23, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the broad implications of the hawkish shift in the Fed’s policy stance at last week’s FOMC meeting.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.



 

Webinar – Understanding Digital Currencies – (75min:16sec) – June 17, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Absolute Return & Foreign Exchange Strategist, Santiago Espinosa, discussing the myths and “fundamentals” driving cryptocurrencies…



 

Policy – U.S. Fed Policy: Reality Bites The Dot Plot – June 17, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy, in the context of yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which saw participants pulling the expected policy rate liftoff forward amid an increased confidence in the economic outlook and upward risks to inflation.



 

U.S. Equities – Energy Stocks: Stay Long For The Beta Trade – June 17, 2021
 · Equities · 

Energy has been the top-performing U.S. sector this year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return · 

The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Key Gaps Are Closing/Widening – June 11, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While uber-dovish monetary policies will remain supportive of risk asset markets, the widening gaps between nominal GDP growth and core inflation versus policy rates are unsustainable.



 

Equities – The U.S. Will Bear The Burden Of A Global Minimum Tax – June 11, 2021
Equities · 

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Economy – U.S. Inflation: Focus On The Trend, Not The Noise – June 10, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core inflation was anticipated to pick up over Q2-Q3 as the economy reopened.



 

Webcast – The Drivers Of Inflation Provide A Warning – (9min:49sec) – June 9, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar Phillip Colmar examines the forces that will drive consumer price inflation over the course of this cycle.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.



 

Equities – Global Equities: What Does History Tell Us? – June 4, 2021
Equities · 

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Fixed Income – Real (Equilibrium) U.S. Interest Rates And Bond Valuation – June 4, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – An Inflation Problem Is Brewing – June 3, 2021
 · Themes · 

The Fed and other major central banks are determined to lag well behind any upturn in consumer price inflation, and fixed-income investors are reluctant to revise up their depressed longer-term views on economic growth and inflation.



 

U.S. Equities – The Value Resurgence Has Room To Run – June 1, 2021
 · Equities · 

The rotation from growth to value has been one of the outstanding features of the U.S. equity market rally over the past 7 months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – May 28, 2021
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Fixed Income – Are Treasury Yields Primed For Another Taper Tantrum-Like Spike? – May 27, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. Treasury yields have been fairly well contained since late-March as they consolidate their prior upleg.