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Webcast – Developed Economies, Central Banks & Bonds: What To Expect In 2024? – (9min:37sec) – November 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for developed economies, central bank policies, and bond market performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.
2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy
U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: A Fed Pause Is Not An All-Clear Signal To Buy – November 21, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. real estate stocks have taken a beating in recent years. The sector, which is mostly comprised of REITs…
Global Equities – How Long Can Goldilocks Last? – November 21, 2023
· Equities ·
Our constructive economic outlook provides scope for global equities to move higher in the near term…
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.
MRB TradeBook – Tweaking Some Positions – November 17, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsU.S. health care stocks have underperformed the broad market in recent days causing us… Continue
U.S. Economy – Key Indicators – November 16, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
Recent data show that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a decent pace, supporting our view that a U.S. recession remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.
MRB TradeBook – Some Tactical Changes – November 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
U.S. Equities – Machinery Stocks: Staying Cautious – November 6, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. machinery stocks have underperformed the broad equity market since early-March, even as their relative 12-month forward earnings have continued to improve.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
MRB TradeBook – Navigating The Volatility Shift – November 3, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsShifts in both equity and bond volatility have triggered several changes in the MRB… Continue
Policy – U.S. Fed: Stepping Aside Without Declaring It – November 2, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged for the second consecutive FOMC meeting yesterday.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…
Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
U.S. Equities – Still Premature To Increase Defensive Positioning Beyond Health Care – October 24, 2023
· Equities ·
Defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and health care have all lagged the broad U.S. equity market year-to-date.
Absolute Return Strategy – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Theme – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
· Themes ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Fixed Income – Focus On Rates Not The Slope Of The Yield Curve – October 19, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
There has been a notable increase in chatter about the implications of the recent steepening or de-inverting of the U.S. 2/10 Treasury curve, with some arguing it signals that a recession looms.
Fixed Income – U.S.: Parsing The Upside In Treasury Yields – October 12, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
The meaningful rise in U.S. long-term bond yields since April has been driven by both cyclical and noncyclical factors.
Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.
U.S. Equities – Communication Services Stocks: Reasons To Stay Overweight – October 5, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. communication services stocks have seen their fortunes dramatically reverse in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.
MRB TradeBook – Volatility Shift – September 29, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsAngst associated with higher interest rates has continued to weigh on stock markets and… Continue
Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
· Equities ·
Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…
Webinar – Will The Bond Market Spoil Goldilocks? – (71min:38sec) – September 27, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Webinar featured Salvatore Ruscitti discussing the macroeconomic outlook and the implications for the U.S. equity market and sector positioning.
Foreign Exchange – An Oil-Neutral Bet Levered To Europe: Long NOK/Short CAD – September 26, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have decoupled from the rebound in oil prices in recent months.
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.
Policy – U.S. Fed: A “Higher For Longer” Reality Is Sinking In – September 21, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting left the policy rate unchanged, but participants revised up their policy rate expectations for next year, and a few raised their expectations for the longer-run policy rate
U.S. Equities – Small-Cap Stocks: Crosscurrents Keep Us On The Sidelines – September 19, 2023
· Equities ·
Despite receding recession fears and concerns over the stretched performance of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks, U.S. small-cap equities have remained relatively out of favor with investors.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.
Global Foreign Exchange – Distinguishing Between Winners And Losers – September 14, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has regained strength over the past two months supported by rising interest rate differentials and stronger relative growth on the back of a further unwinding of U.S. recession fears.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
MRB TradeBook – Long U.S. Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure Stocks Vs Broad Market – September 8, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports This position has corrected as of late, forcing us to book a 10%… Continue
Economy – R-Starring The U.S. Economy – September 6, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
The resilience of the U.S. economy to higher policy rates in this cycle has led some investors and policymakers to speculate that the economy’s neutral real policy rate, or “R-star” may have risen following the pandemic.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Global Equities – How Threatening Are Higher Bond Yields? – August 30, 2023
· Equities ·
Global equities have re-rated significantly this year even as G7 10-year government bond yields have risen.
Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Webcast – U.S.: Don’t Be Distracted By Core Inflation’s Current Descent – (6min:38sec) – August 23, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the prospects for U.S. inflation and highlights that while core inflation is descending, its underlying trend…
U.S. Equities – Aerospace & Defense Stocks: Poised To Regain Altitude – August 22, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. aerospace & defense stocks have lagged the broad equity market year-to-date following significant outperformance in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.
Economy – U.S. Inflation: Beware The Current Complacency – August 17, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
Core CPI has begun decelerating more visibly than in the first half of this year.
Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops On Long Oil And Go Long Natural Gas – August 11, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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U.S. Equities – Moody’s Downgrade Of Banks Mostly Recognizes What Is Already Known – August 11, 2023
· Equities ·
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Global Fixed Income – Another Upwave In Bond Yields Is Inevitable – August 9, 2023
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
After a brief reprieve beginning late last year, bonds have faced further losses since May as economy bears were caught wrongfooted on calls for a recession.
Webcast – Gold Bulls: Beware Higher Real Bond Yields – (6min:41sec) – August 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses MRB’s outlook for gold prices in the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.
U.S. Equities – Energy Stocks: Favor Service Providers Over Producers – August 1, 2023
· Equities ·
The recent rally in oil prices has lifted U.S. energy stocks, which have lagged the broad equity market year-to-date.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.
Policy – Fed: Near A Hiking Halt On Inflation Optimism – July 27, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
Yesterday’s widely anticipated Fed policy rate hike came with dovish policy communication from Fed chair Powell.
Commodities – Just Another Short-Lived Rally For Gold – July 26, 2023
· Commodities ·
Gold prices have rebounded modestly this month, and briefly neared the top end of their post-pandemic trading range…
Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Global Equities: Identifying Opportunities Among Major Non-U.S. Markets – July 25, 2023
· Equities ·
With all eyes recently on U.S. stocks, it is easy to miss important trends among the major non-U.S. markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.
Economy – U.S.: Will Consumption Fizzle When Excess Savings Run Out? – July 19, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. households accumulated a large pool of excess savings over the pandemic.
Theme – Artificial Intelligence: Less Than Meets The Eye For Equities – July 18, 2023
· Themes ·
We are optimistic that A.I. can boost U.S. economic growth and productivity, although we caution that any estimate of the magnitude embodies considerable guesswork…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.
MRB TradeBook – Long Energy And Japanese Financials – July 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Earnings Must Jump Over A Higher Bar In Q2 – July 12, 2023
· Equities ·
Second-quarter earnings are about to get underway, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.
Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”
Economy – U.S.: Checking In On The Services Sector – July 8, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
Prominent gauges of U.S. service sector business sentiment diverged meaningfully earlier this year.
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk-On Until Bond Yields Breakout – July 6, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks and investors have begun capitulating closer to our view that the cost of capital has not yet reached destabilizing levels.
Webinar – U.S. Economy: Still Defying Bearish Narratives – (72min:58sec) – July 5, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar, Prajakta Bhide discusses why MRB still thinks that the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a recession over the foreseeable future…
U.S. Equities – Growth Stocks: Mounting Risks To The Rally – July 5, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. growth stocks have enjoyed a powerful resurgence this year versus their value brethren.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…
MRB TradeBook – Favor U.S. Large-Cap Banks Versus Their Regional Counterparts – June 30, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThe U.S. bank index has started to regain strength relative to the U.S. regional… Continue
Regional Equities – Mitigating Concentration Risk Across Regions And Sectors – June 29, 2023
· Equities ·
Global equity market concentration risk has increased anew following the recent outperformance of U.S. tech and AI-related stocks.
Webcast – Three Underappreciated Factors That Will Support U.S. Bank Earnings – (9min:54sec) – June 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. bank earnings.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…
Foreign Exchange – The Euro Is Regaining Strength To Start The Summer – June 23, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
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U.S. Equities – Bank Earnings Face A Wall Of Worry, But Not A Cliff-Dive – June 20, 2023
· Equities ·
The earnings of U.S. bank stocks face several crosscurrents in the year ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.
Policy – U.S.: The Fed Acknowledges Economic Resilience – June 15, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
As we expected, the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged at yesterday’s FOMC meeting.
Webcast – U.S.: Inflation Is Still Too High For The Fed’s Comfort – (8min:39sec) – June 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. inflation…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.
Economy – U.S. Inflation: The Underlying Trend Is Still Firm – June 8, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. core inflation is descending very slowly from its pandemic-propelled peak.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.
U.S. Equities – Energy Equipment & Services Stocks: Time To Start Nibbling – June 5, 2023
· Equities ·
The U.S. energy equipment & services sub-group has lagged the overall equity benchmark year-to-date, along with the broader energy sector.
MRB TradeBook – Euro Area Versus U.S. Equities – June 2, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsEuro area equities have come under significant more selling pressure compared to their U.S…. Continue
Webcast – Stay Selective With The U.S. Dollar – (8min:04sec) – June 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets based on the just-published global foreign exchange report.
Global Foreign Exchange – No Recession = A Short-Lived U.S. Dollar Revival – May 31, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has regained some strength in recent weeks on the back of the unwinding of oversold conditions and persistent recession fears that have led to a churning global stock market which has benefited defensive currencies.
Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.
Fixed Income – The Irony Of The Inverted Yield Curve – May 26, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – U.S. Recession: Answers To Five FAQs – (9min:27sec) – May 24, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for the U.S. economy and addresses some of the questions that we have been frequently asked by clients regarding our non-consensus call that a recession is not imminent.
Economy – U.S: Data Continue Defying Bearish Narratives – May 23, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
We remain of the view that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession for the foreseeable future.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Isn’t Over – May 19, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist over the summer.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Late Cycle: Leaning Against The Consensus Yet Again – May 18, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The economic expansion has matured, and the investment cycle is now late.
U.S. Equities – It Gets Tougher From Here – May 16, 2023
· Equities ·
The 6-12 month outlook for the U.S. equity market remains uninspiring.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.
Economy – Challenging The U.S. Recession View (Part II) – May 11, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Our view has been that we are in a mature phase of the U.S. and global economic expansion, but not yet at the onset of recession.
Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Economy – Challenging The U.S. Recession View (Part I) – May 9, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
There is no shortage of things to worry about and the potential for a U.S. recession is nontrivial.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – May 5, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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Policy – U.S. Fed: A Pause Is Just A Pause – May 4, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed hiked the policy rate by a quarter percentage point at yesterday’s FOMC meeting and signaled an upcoming pause in its tightening cycle.
U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: Exceptional Valuations For Unexceptional Earnings – May 3, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. tech stocks have bounced back strongly this year after enduring a brutal sell-off in 2022.
Webcast – U.S.: A Sentiment Swing Is Skewing The Macro Story – (7min:12sec) – May 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses MRB’s “no-recession” call, highlighting the unusual shifts in recent U.S. macro data that may have skewed recession indicators in an excessively bearish direction.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.
Global Equities – Banks Are A Key Tell For Equity Performance – April 28, 2023
Equities ·
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Economy – U.S: Revisiting Recession Risks- April 27, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. economic prospects were perceived to take a meaningful hit following the spike in U.S. banking sector stress in March.
Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.
Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.
Economics & Policy – Contracting U.S. M2: Less To It Than Meets The Eye – April 21, 2023
Economics & Policy ·
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Policy – U.S. Fiscal Policy Outlook: Tough Choices Loom – April 20, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
The federal budget is on an unsustainable path based on current law and mainstream expectations about the long-term economic outlook.
U.S. Equities – Earnings Outlook: Can Sales Expectations Hold Up? – April 19, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. corporate earnings will remain in the spotlight in the next few weeks as more companies report first-quarter numbers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.
Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.
MRB TradeBook – Two New Equity Positions And One Closed Pair Trade – April 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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U.S. Equities – Economic Concerns Mount, But Too Early To Go All-In On Defensives – April 5, 2023
· Equities ·
Strains in the banking system have raised concerns about a retrenchment in bank lending, with negative implications for the broader U.S. economy.
Foreign Exchange – Higher Interest Rates Will Snap The Weak Link Currencies – April 4, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
Weak-link economies are at increasing risk of experiencing a recession triggered by higher borrowing rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Back To Pre-SVB Levels? – March 31, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain constructive on global economic prospects for the next 6-12 months, and do not expect much fallout from this month’s banking problems.
Webcast – The Toppling Of Economic Dominos – (8min:26sec) – March 30, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar provides a contrast between the current macro environment compared to that of the 2010s.
Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Positioning – March 30, 2023
· Equities ·
Equity prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, but we expect the banking sector stresses to soon die down and for the global economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace.
Global Fixed Income – Snapping Weak Links – March 29, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
Volatility in the U.S. and G7 government bond markets has surged again in response to U.S. and European banking system strains.
Economy – U.S. Bank Outflows: Not That Alarming For The Economy – March 29, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
This report takes a closer look at flows out of U.S. banks and into money market funds in the aftermath of the heightened banking sector stress that followed from two prominent bank failures earlier this month.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…
MRB TradeBook – Rapid Volatility Shift – March 24, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports Angst associated with the potential for a global banking crisis has diminished a… Continue
Policy – U.S. Fed: A Dovish Hike, But No Cuts In Sight – March 23, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed continued to tighten policy at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, using dovish forward policy guidance to address the recent developments in the U.S. banking sector.
U.S. Equities – Changes To The GICS® Structure: What Investors Need To Know – March 22, 2023
· Equities ·
Changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) will be made in the coming months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Tip Of The Iceberg, Or Only A Brief Interruption? – March 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-off backdrop could persist in the near term, until banking fears start to subside.
Fed Policy – Juggling Mandates Will Not Lead To Rate Cuts This Year – March 17, 2023
Economics & Policy ·
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MRB TradeBook – Protecting Profits During A Mini-Panic – March 17, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports The euro area financial sector came under intense selling pressure this week which… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Interest Rate Normalization & Global Financial Stocks – March 15, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
There are still widespread recession concerns, entrenched optimism on much lower inflation, and investors are generally confused about where we are in the economic and investment cycle.
Webcast – U.S. Bank Stocks: Idiosyncratic Rather Than Systemic Risks – (9min:29sec) – March 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the implications of recent developments in the banking industry and their impact on U.S. bank stocks.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.
MRB TradeBook – Taking Profits – March 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsMarket volatility has caused us to take profits on three positions this week, these… Continue
U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Addressing Three Popular Questions – March 9, 2023
· Equities ·
Rising interest rates bring both opportunities and risks for the banking industry.
Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Global Foreign Exchange – A Different Year For The U.S. Dollar – March 7, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S dollar decline has stabilized as of late on the back of a further rise in U.S. interest rates compared to other markets and related risk-off phase.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.
MRB TradeBook – New Equity Pair Trade – March 3, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsLong U.S. Industrials Vs Consumer Discretionary Stocks: U.S. industrials have started to outperform their… Continue
Economy – U.S. Housing: Premature Optimism – March 2, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. housing market activity dropped sharply alongside higher mortgage rates last year…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.
Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
· Equities ·
Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.
Webcast – Equity Dilemma: Stronger Economy Vs Higher Bond Yields – (10min:05sec) – February 22, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the major macro forces driving equities and bonds and narrows in on the current outlook for investment strategy.
Foreign Exchange – Gold Or Cryptos: Which One Is More Appealing? – February 21, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The pause in bond yields late last year encouraged global equity investors to embrace risk-on across the board…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.
MRB TradeBook – Taking A (Tactical) Profit – February 17, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsLong U.S. 10-Year Treasury: This tactical position was stopped out this week with a… Continue
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Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
· Equities ·
There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…
Policy – U.S. CPI: A Bit More Heat Than Meets The Eye – February 16, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
Year-over-year core CPI inflation has eased and will continue to decline this year, but the January CPI report underscored that the road will be bumpy.
Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.
Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.
Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.
Commodities – Upgrade As Headwinds Fade – February 3, 2023
Commodities ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe are upgrading commodities to neutral as China and the euro area regain economic… Continue
Policy – U.S.: The Market’s Had Enough, But The Fed’s Not Done – February 2, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed issued a smaller rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, setting the tone for terminating the ongoing phase of policy tightening in a few months.
U.S. Equities – Small-Cap Stocks: Bullish Bets Are Not Yet Warranted – February 1, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. small-cap stocks have outperformed their large-cap counterparts over the past year.
Webinar – Our No-Recession, Non-Consensus U.S. View Explained – (68min:00sec) – January 31, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar, Prajakta Bhide discusses why the U.S. economy remains likely to avoid a recession over the next year…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.
Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2022 Review – January 24, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.
Webcast – The Impediments To A Revival Of U.S. Growth-Stock Leadership In 2023 – (9min:53sec) – January 18, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for the U.S. style cycle and addresses whether growth stocks can rebound in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.
Policy – U.S. CPI: Easing Steadily, But Medium-Term Signals Remain Firm – January 12, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. inflation is unwinding last year’s spike, driven by falling goods prices.
Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.
2023 U.S. Style Outlook – Can Growth Stocks Rebound? – January 10, 2023
· Equities ·
Last year was annus horribilis for U.S. growth stocks. The latter bore the brunt of investor concerns over sharply rising inflation and interest rates.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth
2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
· Equities ·
A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar
2023 U.S. Sector Outlook – Another Year Of Challenges, But With Some Opportunities – December 21, 2022
· Equities ·
Next year will bring slower U.S. economic growth and moderating inflation, which should lead to at least a temporary pause in Fed rate hikes.
Webcast – The U.S. Economic Outlook For Next Year – (9min:17sec) – December 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. economy for the next year, highlighting the reasons why we think that a recession will likely be avoided.goalposts.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Global Economic Headwinds Easing – December 16, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some economic headwinds have recently eased, even as the major DM central banks have continued to hike their policy rates.
Fed Policy – December FOMC Meeting: Key Takeaways – December 16, 2022
Economics & Policy ·
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Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – December 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Theme – U.S. Treasurys: Rhyming (Inversely) With The 1980s – December 8, 2022
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
It is common for investor expectations and market pricing to persistently lag economic fundamentals at secular turning points.
2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.
2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…
Economy – U.S. Consumption: Will Exceed Expectations, Again – December 1, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
Amid high inflation, tighter financial conditions, and concerns over an impending economic slowdown, U.S. consumer spending has remained fairly resilient this year.
Global Foreign Exchange – 2023 FX Outlook: Selectivity Will Be Key – November 29, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
A successful FX strategy in 2023 will entail a major change in tactics, as oversold and undervalued currencies are set to regain strength against the historically overextended U.S. dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.
U.S. Equities – The Implications Of A Desynchronized U.S. Profit Cycle – November 23, 2022
· Equities ·
The U.S. profit cycle has decelerated sharply this year after a period of extraordinary growth following the re-opening of the economy in 2021.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Patience And Realism Required – (12min:48sec) – November 22, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns and the implications for strategic asset allocation over the next decade.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;
MRB TradeBook – Update On Risk-On Positioning – November 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…
Webcast – Investment Implications Of Interest Rate Normalization – (11min:00sec) – November 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar outlines frameworks for understanding the process of interest rate normalization…
Charts – U.S. Labor Market: A Gradual Slowdown – November 15, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. labor market momentum is cooling alongside the unwinding of monetary policy, but the labor market is still historically tight.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.
Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Is All The Bad News Discounted? – November 8, 2022
· Equities ·
U.S. semiconductor stocks have posted big losses in 2022, with the semiconductor & semi-equipment index falling nearly 40% year-to-date on growing fears of a recession.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.
Policy – U.S. Fed: Smaller Hikes, But For Longer – November 3, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed issued a fourth consecutive 75 bps rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting but signaled a step-down in the pace of rate increases at upcoming policy meetings.
Webcast – U.S. Consumer Discretionary Stocks Will Remain Challenged – (11min:11sec) – November 2, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti examines the outlook for U.S. consumer discretionary stocks.
Foreign Exchange – Favor The Euro Versus Currencies In Weak Link Economies – November 2, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The backdrop for the euro area could become much brighter than is currently anticipated…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…
MRB TradeBook Update – Tactically Adding More Beta – October 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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U.S. Equities – Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Too Early To Get More Constructive – October 27, 2022
· Equities ·
We entered 2022 with an underweight recommendation on the U.S. consumer discretionary sector.
Policy – U.S: Inflation Will Complicate A Fed Pivot – October 25, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
Persistent upside surprises in core CPI inflation through Q3 have fueled a debate on whether an outsize lagged rise in rent inflation is exaggerating inflation’s strength.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.
Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
Webcast – Elevated Inflation Has Made Central Banks Blindly Hawkish – (5min:00sec) – October 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, we discuss monetary policy based on last week’s MRB Research Highlight, that “tighter” monetary policy is still required in the developed world.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.
MRB TradeBook Update – New Equity Pair Trade – October 14, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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U.S. Equities – Road & Rail Stocks: Why Relative Performance Is At Risk Of Getting Derailed – October 13, 2022
· Equities ·
The U.S. Class 1 railroads are great businesses. That said, these companies are not impervious to an economic slowdown/downturn, nor are they immune to operational challenges.
Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.
Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.
Policy – U.S. Fed: Speed Kills – October 5, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed’s plan to outrun inflation by continuing aggressive rate hikes in the future implies that U.S. (and global) recession odds have risen, and risks to global financial stability have mounted.
U.S. Equities – Patience Is Prudence – October 5, 2022
· Equities ·
Equities have started the fourth quarter on a more upbeat note after one of the worst Septembers on record.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.
MRB TradeBook Update – Financial Markets Approach A Critical Juncture – September 30, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Global Fixed Income – A Global Bond Market Riot Erupts – September 29, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
The Bank of England has, temporarily, arrested a riot in the U.K. Gilt market that was threatening all major government bond markets.
Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
· Equities ·
Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.
Webcast – Growth Concerns Are Driving Currencies – (11min:22sec) – September 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets, leveraging some of the research in this month’s global foreign exchange report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – September 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Although a recession over the 6-12 months has not been our base-case scenario, the odds of this outcome are increasing and will continue to climb if the rise in interest rate expectations persists unabated.
Absolute Return Strategy – Higher Interest Rates Curb Risk Taking – September 23, 2022
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are facing renewed selling pressure and will continue to do so… Continue
Policy – The Fed: Honesty Is The Best Policy – September 23, 2022
Economics & Policy ·
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Policy – U.S. Fed: Peak Hawkishness, Or More To Come? – September 22, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed issued another 75 bps rate hike yesterday and signaled further large increases for this year’s remaining policy meetings.
Theme – When Will The (Recession) Wolf Arrive? – September 21, 2022
· Themes ·
The wolf eventually arrived in the fable of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”.
Roundtable – Positioning In A World Of Higher-For-Longer Interest Rates – (79min:22sec) – September 21, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Salvatore Ruscitti discussing the outlook for the U.S. equity market and the implications of higher-for-longer interest rates on portfolio positioning.
Fixed Income – High-Yield Corporate Debt Will Be Resilient – September 20, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
U.S. high-yield corporate debt has been a major casualty of the past four recessions, leading many to argue that the asset class is poised to suffer heavily again in the year ahead and warranting an underweight stance within a fixed-income portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.
Policy – U.S. CPI: No Time To Rest – September 14, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
The August CPI report showed renewed strength in services inflation, and no respite from rising goods prices
Webcast – Still Lots Of Challenges – (10min:46sec) – September 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the coming 6-12 months.
Global Foreign Exchange – Recession Fears Are Driving Currencies – September 14, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The dominant driver for FX markets shifted in recent months from interest rate differentials
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Understanding The Fed’s Influence – September 13, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
U.S. Treasurys have faced dramatic selling pressure and heightened volatility since the Fed found itself wrongfooted in missing the historical rise in consumer price inflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.
MRB TradeBook Update – Update Given Market Volatility – September 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – The Outlook For U.S. Home Prices – (7min:26sec) – September 8, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide highlights the weak performance of recent U.S. housing indicators and discusses the outlook for home prices for next year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.
Economy – U.S. Housing Market: How Much Price Downside Ahead? – August 31, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
The U.S. housing market has rapidly become the weakest-performing sector of the economy, with higher mortgage rates deterring demand meaningfully in recent months.
Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices
Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.
U.S. Equities – Our Favorite Charts – August 26, 2022
· Equities ·
Today’s report presents some of our recent “favorite” charts.
Economy – U.S.: Holding Up – August 25, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
The forward market is pricing in Fed policy easing by the middle of next year which implicitly assumes that the U.S economy will be in a recession by that time.
Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
· Themes ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk-On For Now, But Only If Bonds Stay Calm – August 19, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A cooling in inflation after the spike in the past year will prolong the pause phase in government bond markets. This, in turn, will support equities and credit in the coming months.
Last Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Inflation Reduction Act.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Payback Versus Catching Up – August 12, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
As expected, U.S. inflation has rolled over and will decelerate in the coming months, which will boost the prospects for extending the global economic expansion.
MRB TradeBook Update – Adding Beta – August 12, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Policy – U.S. CPI: Is This A Real Break In The Trend? – August 11, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
This report discusses Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, which saw monthly headline inflation flattening in July and core inflation easing back after a sharp sequential acceleration in Q2.
Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.
Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.
U.S. Equities – Chemical Stocks: Trouble Brewing – August 3, 2022
· Equities ·
Year-to-date, U.S. chemical stocks have performed broadly in line with the overall equity market, albeit with considerable volatility.
Economy – U.S. Q2 GDP: Don’t Jump The Recession Gun – August 1, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
Many analysts are interpreting the second consecutive contraction in quarterly real GDP in Q2 as a confirmation that a U.S. recession is underway.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Mixed Messages – July 29, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
“Pause #2” in the cyclical bond yield uptrend is well advanced, and further downside in yields from current levels should be limited.
Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
· Themes ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Policy – U.S. Fed: Awaiting A Break In Inflation – July 28, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
This report updates our outlook for Fed policy after yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which saw the Fed issue another 75 bps rate hike
Webcast – Dividends Matter – (8min:54sec) – July 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins examines dividends across global equity markets to provide support for equity portfolios in a turbulent investment climate.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.
MRB TradeBook Update – Positioning Update – July 22, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Equities – As Go Industrials, So Go Equities – July 22, 2022
Equities ·
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Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
· Themes ·
The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.
Webcast – U.S. Recession 101 – (8min:10sec) – July 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the criteria that distinguish recessions from more moderate economic downturns
U.S. Equities – How Much Bad News Is In The Market? – July 19, 2022
· Equities ·
The year-to-date decline in U.S. stock prices has been almost entirely driven by a contraction in valuation multiples.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.
Economy – U.S: Risks Rising, But Recession Forecast Is Premature – July 15, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
Pessimism regarding the U.S. economic outlook remains elevated, with recession forecasts becoming the consensus
Webcast – U.S. Growth Stocks: Relatively Oversold, But Not Compelling – (9min:25sec) – July 13, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses whether U.S. growth stocks can re-assert equity leadership in the second half of the year.
Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
· Equities ·
After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.
Global Fixed Income – A Volatile Consolidation – July 8, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
There is a great deal of uncertainty facing fixed-income markets which is reflected in the very elevated level of bond volatility.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession
MRB TradeBook Update – Adding Beta & Tightening Stops – July 8, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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U.S. Equities – Will Recession Concerns Revive The Relative Performance Of U.S. Growth Stocks? – July 7, 2022
· Equities ·
There is a growing belief emerging among some investors that U.S. equity leadership will revert to growth equities in the second half of the year as inflation peaks
Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Recession Or Resilience? – July 1, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Anxiety about the global growth outlook will persist in the near term, resulting in choppy capital market conditions and room for bond yields to retreat at least mildly further.
Roundtable – Will The U.S. Economy Land On Its Feet? – (68min:57sec) – June 29, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Roundtable, Prajakta Bhide discusses the likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next year
Commodities – Gold Over Crypto As Liquidity Boom Ends – June 28, 2022
· Commodities · Foreign Exchange ·
Although gold and bitcoin have been promoted as hedges against inflation and fiat currency debasement, there is still no clear correlation in the performance of the two.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets
U.S. Equities – Health Care Stocks Remain A Core Defensive Holding – June 23, 2022
· Equities ·
U.S. health care stocks have outperformed the broad equity market year-to-date, led by the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology sub-groups
Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
· Equities ·
The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks
Webcast – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Extended But Propped Up By Risk-Off – (7min:58sec) – June 21, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa provides our latest analysis of the U.S. dollar and global currency markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.
MRB TradeBook Update – Elevated Volatility – June 17, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Policy – U.S. Fed: A Self-Made Pickle – June 16, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
This report updates our outlook for Fed policy after yesterday’s FOMC meeting
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year
Policy – U.S. CPI: Sticker Shock – June 13, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
This report discusses Friday’s U.S. CPI report which underscored persistently high inflationary pressures in the economy
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.
Equities – Global Earnings: Some Cracks Are Starting To Appear – June 10, 2022
Equities ·
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U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Earnings Upgrades Starting To Take Hold – June 9, 2022
· Equities ·
After sharply outperforming in January, U.S. bank stocks have lagged the broad equity market since the Russian invasion of Ukraine amid rising recession concerns
Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
· Themes ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth
Webcast – Gauging The Risk Of A U.S. Recession – (9min:15sec) – June 2, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses prospects for the U.S. economy, in the context of rising worries that the economy is heading toward a recession.
Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.
Equities – U.S. Stocks: Too Late To Sell, Too Soon To Buy? – May 27, 2022
Equities ·
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Economy – Are Worries Of A Looming U.S. Recession Justified? – May 26, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. economic growth has cooled, partly due to base effects after a booming 2021, and partly due to high inflation, including the jump in energy prices this year.
U.S. Equities – Q1 Earnings: What We Learned And What To Expect Going Forward – May 26, 2022
· Equities ·
U.S. first-quarter earnings season is nearly in the books, with most members of the S&P 500 having reported results.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
· Asset Allocation · Equities ·
The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.
MRB TradeBook Update – May 20, 2022
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsAfter the recent equity market selloff, we recommend tightening stops to protect 7% of… Continue
Foreign Exchange – A Reality Check For Cryptos – May 20, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.
Economy – U.S. Housing: Cooling Demand, But Not Prices (Yet) – May 17, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. housing market activity will be an important gauge for whether the Fed’s policy normalization is reining-in aggregate demand as intended.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.
Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.
Policy – U.S.: The Fed Steps It Up, Hoping For A Break Later – May 5, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.
Asset Allocation – Extraordinary Times – April 29, 2022
Asset Allocation · Equities ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue
U.S. Equities – Aerospace & Defense Stocks: On A Slow, But Positive Trajectory – April 28, 2022
· Equities ·
U.S. aerospace & defense stocks have significantly outperformed the broad equity market year-to-date.
Webcast – The Great Bond Market Capitulation – (7min:48sec) – April 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses this year’s dramatic selloff in government bonds and provides a roadmap of what to expect heading forward.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Adding Or Cutting Exposure? – April 26, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The euro has recently been weighed down by ongoing geopolitical turmoil within Europe, as well as the moderation in regional and global growth in response to the war in Ukraine.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.
U.S. Equity Sectors – Tech Stocks: It May Be More Than Just Valuation Headwinds – April 22, 2022
Equities ·
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Economy – U.S.: Checking In On Consumers – April 21, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
Real retail sales eased for the second consecutive month in March, warranting a closer look at whether inflation is starting to meaningfully deter consumer demand.
Theme – Government Bonds: This Is What Capitulation Looks Like (Phase 1) – April 21, 2022
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
The violent selloff in U.S. and G7 government bonds reflects the beginning of a major capitulation by both central banks and bond bulls
Economy – U.S. Unemployment Is NOT Flashing A Warning Sign For Stocks – April 19, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
The level of U.S. unemployment is often overlooked as an investment timing tool and yet can provide significant value to investors
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.
Webcast – U.S. Bank Stocks: Earnings Will Have A Second Upleg – (11min:50sec) – April 13, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. bank stocks.
Economy – Euro Area: Divergent Interest Rate Sensitivities – April 12, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
Euro area interest rate expectations are ratcheting higher as the ECB will unwind monetary accommodation to address the region’s elevated and rising inflation rate.
Economy – U.S Inflation: The Heat Is (Still) On – April 11, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. inflation has not yet turned around from its post-pandemic surge.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.
Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs Long Term Outlook – April 7, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The macro backdrop has been more supportive for the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies this year.
U.S. Equities – Utility Stocks: The Catalysts For Sustained Outperformance Are Not In Place – April 6, 2022
· Equities ·
U.S. utility stocks have enjoyed a relative bounce in recent months after a period of extended underperformance.
Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Curve: What’s The Message, If Anything? – March 31, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has become a topic of high interest once again, now that it has become flat beyond 2 years, with segments of the curve mildly inverting.
Global Fixed Income – The Fed Plays Catch-Up – March 30, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
The sell-off in the global fixed-income market has been severe over the past several months, particularly for U.S. Treasurys.
U.S. Equities – Putin Or Powell: Who Matters More For U.S. Bank Stocks? – March 29, 2022
· Equities ·
After strongly outperforming in January, U.S. bank stocks have lagged in the past couple of months, with relative performance weighed down by economic uncertainty stemming from the war in Ukraine.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.
MRB TradeBook Update – March 25, 2022
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis week’s equity rebound triggered the stop-buy on our long Japanese equity position and… Continue
Regional Equities – Post-War Performance Shifts Lie Ahead – March 24, 2022
· Equities ·
The war in Ukraine is a near-term wildcard, but our expectation of an ongoing global economic recovery…
Roundtable – Positioning In Treacherous Markets – (72min:33sec) – March 23, 2022
Uncategorized · Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Roundtable, Salvatore Ruscitti discussed the outlook for the U.S. equity market and provided a road map for how to position portfolios for the next 6-12 months.
Economy – U.S.: Key Indicators – March 23, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
The narrowing U.S. 2/10 Treasury yield spread suggests that bond investors are concerned…
Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.
MRB TradeBook Update – March 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Global Foreign Exchange – The Impact Of Geopolitics On FX Strategy – March 17, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The shunning of Russia from the global economy has heightened market volatility and created a dent in economic sentiment
Policy – U.S. Fed: Front Loaded Tightening Won’t Cut It – March 16, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Uncategorized ·
This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following today’s FOMC meeting
Equities – Global Equity Energy Plays: What’s In The Price? – March 15, 2022
· Equities ·
Global energy stock prices are embedding a significant decline in crude oil prices