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Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.

Economy – U.S. Inflation: The Underlying Trend Is Still Firm – June 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core inflation is descending very slowly from its pandemic-propelled peak.

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.

U.S. Equities – Energy Equipment & Services Stocks: Time To Start Nibbling – June 5, 2023
 · Equities · 

The U.S. energy equipment & services sub-group has lagged the overall equity benchmark year-to-date, along with the broader energy sector.

MRB TradeBook – Euro Area Versus U.S. Equities – June 2, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsEuro area equities have come under significant more selling pressure compared to their U.S…. Continue

Webcast – Stay Selective With The U.S. Dollar – (8min:04sec) – June 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets based on the just-published global foreign exchange report. 

Global Foreign Exchange – No Recession = A Short-Lived U.S. Dollar Revival – May 31, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has regained some strength in recent weeks on the back of the unwinding of oversold conditions and persistent recession fears that have led to a churning global stock market which has benefited defensive currencies.

Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.

Fixed Income – The Irony Of The Inverted Yield Curve – May 26, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – U.S. Recession: Answers To Five FAQs – (9min:27sec) – May 24, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for the U.S. economy and addresses some of the questions that we have been frequently asked by clients regarding our non-consensus call that a recession is not imminent.

Economy – U.S: Data Continue Defying Bearish Narratives – May 23, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

We remain of the view that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession for the foreseeable future.

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Isn’t Over – May 19, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist over the summer.

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Late Cycle: Leaning Against The Consensus Yet Again – May 18, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The economic expansion has matured, and the investment cycle is now late.

U.S. Equities – It Gets Tougher From Here – May 16, 2023
 · Equities · 

The 6-12 month outlook for the U.S. equity market remains uninspiring.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.

Economy – Challenging The U.S. Recession View (Part II) – May 11, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Our view has been that we are in a mature phase of the U.S. and global economic expansion, but not yet at the onset of recession.

Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

Economy – Challenging The U.S. Recession View (Part I) – May 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

There is no shortage of things to worry about and the potential for a U.S. recession is nontrivial.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.

MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – May 5, 2023
Absolute Return · 

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Policy – U.S. Fed: A Pause Is Just A Pause – May 4, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed hiked the policy rate by a quarter percentage point at yesterday’s FOMC meeting and signaled an upcoming pause in its tightening cycle.

U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: Exceptional Valuations For Unexceptional Earnings – May 3, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. tech stocks have bounced back strongly this year after enduring a brutal sell-off in 2022.

Webcast – U.S.: A Sentiment Swing Is Skewing The Macro Story – (7min:12sec) – May 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses MRB’s “no-recession” call, highlighting the unusual shifts in recent U.S. macro data that may have skewed recession indicators in an excessively bearish direction.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.

Global Equities – Banks Are A Key Tell For Equity Performance – April 28, 2023
Equities · 

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Economy – U.S: Revisiting Recession Risks- April 27, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. economic prospects were perceived to take a meaningful hit following the spike in U.S. banking sector stress in March.

Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.

Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.

Economics & Policy – Contracting U.S. M2: Less To It Than Meets The Eye – April 21, 2023
Economics & Policy · 

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