us


 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Changing Stock Market Dynamics: The Start Of A Leadership Shift? – July 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The period of extremely thin equity market leadership may be ending, with a broadening in participation favoring select laggard sectors and global bourses.



 

MRB TradeBook – Two New Bets On A Broadening Equity Market – July 19, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are two changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: NEW –… Continue



 

Economy – U.S.: Don’t Fret About Rising Unemployment – July 18, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Rising U.S. unemployment has made some investors nervous about the health of the U.S. labor market and the durability of the U.S. economic expansion.



 

Fixed Income – The Impact Of A Higher Neutral Fed Funds Rate – July 17, 2024
 · Fixed Income · 

The bond market and news flow has been fixated on the next few Fed policy rate decisions.



 

Webcast – Handicapping The U.S. Election – (11min:35sec) – July 17, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the upcoming U.S. election, the likely outcomes, and the broad implications for capital markets.



 

U.S. Election 2024 – A Republican Sweep Is The Best Bet – July 16, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Many investors view this election as extremely important. It has the potential to exacerbate the already extreme polarization in the U.S.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Overbought Conditions Will Persist Until Bond Markets Weaken Anew – July 12, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A dovish Fed and another low-side CPI print will keep DM bond markets calm. The latter are supportive of credit and equity markets, despite overbought conditions.



 

U.S. Equities – Five Charts That Every U.S. Investor Should Contemplate – July 12, 2024
 · Equities · 

The year-to-date gains in the S&P 500 have been fueled by rising earnings, resilient economic growth and relentless upside in the A.I. trade. 



 

MRB TradeBook – Closing One Position – July 12, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere was one change to our positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: CLOSED… Continue



 

Webcast – Summer Grind – (10min:16sec) – July 10, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Foreign Exchange – Cryptocurrencies Are Vulnerable Once Again – July 9, 2024
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The key macro narrative that has supported cryptos in recent years has been that the Fed (and other central banks) have neglected sticky inflation…



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Dog That Didn’t Bark – July 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

The U.S. economy is downshifting from its prior brisk pace, but forecasts of an impending period of outright weakness or even recession are misplaced.



 

Webinar – U.S. Economy: The Cycle Has Legs – (71min:38sec) – July 3, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Investors have more faith in the U.S economic expansion this year than a year ago, but some recent soft economic data have caused cyclical worries to resurface.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Three Investment Themes – July 2, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

This report reviews three key long-term investment themes, including A.I. plays, beneficiaries of the global trade cycle, and areas where economic growth is likely to surprise either to the upside or downside.



 

U.S. Equities – Tech Charts That Make You Go Hmmm… – July 1, 2024
Equities · 

U.S. technology stocks have re-asserted their dominance over the equity market in recent months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Once Again: Don’t Short U.S. Consumers – June 28, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are buyers on weakness of euro area equities and the euro. Lingering political risks are offset…



 

MRB TradeBook – Adding Another Long Energy Position – June 28, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe added another long energy play to the MRB TradeBook this week: Long U.S…. Continue



 

Webcast – Dealing With Equity Market Distortions – (11min:54sec) – June 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global equities and appropriate regional equity positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Regional Equities – Goldilocks “Light” Spurs A Broadening In Equity Leadership – June 25, 2024
 · Equities · 

The investment backdrop remains broadly supportive for global equities, but performance will likely be choppy in the near term given some signs of slowing growth in the U.S. economy…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Euro Area Will Not Be Derailed – June 21, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

French politics have created a buying opportunity for regional equities and the euro.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – (Finally) A Low-Side U.S. CPI Print, But Its Only A Temporary Reprieve – June 14, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s low-side U.S. CPI report followed high-side prints earlier this year, and is not indicative of the underlying trend. The latter is “sticky” and set to hold well above 2% in the coming year.



 

MRB TradeBook – Two Winners and Two Losers – June 14, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN STOPS… Continue



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Cautious, But Still Dovish In Intent – June 13, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed has been waiting for some milder inflation data to support its plans to reduce the policy rate this year.



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care Stocks: Down, But Not Out – June 12, 2024
 · Equities · 

U.S. health care stocks have been through a rocky period in the past year…



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Headed Into Generalized U.S. Dollar Weakness – June 11, 2024
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. economy remains resilient and growth concerns in May proved to be premature.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The End Is Not Nigh – June 7, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

While the catalyst for an end of the economic expansion is not yet in place, the investment landscape is likely to be choppy over the next 6-12 months…



 

Economy – It’s Premature To Worry About The U.S. Economy – June 6, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Negative economic surprises, and a weak ISM manufacturing survey in May have resurrected worries about U.S. growth prospects. 



 

Webcast – U.S. Inflation Outlook: Is The Consensus Too Complacent? – (10min:49sec) – June 6, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The Federal Reserve and bond market continue to use the 25-year period of low inflation prior to the pandemic as their baseline for forecasting inflation…



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Inflation: What Will Be The Underlying Run Rate? – June 5, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The Fed and bond investors now place a tremendous emphasis on each inflation release to determine potential shifts in the fed funds rate, despite the volatile and lagging nature of the monthly data.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Policy Rates, But Higher Bond Yields: This Won’t Last – May 31, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields are firming anew, which threatens the risk-on backdrop.



 

MRB TradeBook – One Big Winner, One Loser And One New Position – May 31, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN STOPS… Continue



 

Economy – ECB Is Ready To Ease, But Don’t Bet On Many Cuts – May 31, 2024
 · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThe case for ECB rate cuts is somewhat backward looking, or based on expectations… Continue



 

Long-Term Returns – A Reckoning Is Inevitable – May 30, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This old saw is especially relevant as the macro drivers of strong capital market returns over most of the past 40 years no longer pertain.



 

Webcast – U.S.: Prospects For Consumption Remain Solid – (9min:42sec) – May 29, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses why MRB thinks that the prospects for U.S. consumption remain solid, despite the apparent fading of the excess savings accumulated by households during the pandemic.



 

U.S. Equities – Q1 2024 Earnings Review: Solid Results Set The Stage For 2H Broadening – May 28, 2024
 · Equities · 

Last week’s earnings announcements from NVIDIA and a host of retailers marked the tail end of the U.S. first quarter earnings reporting season.



 

Economy – U.S. Consumer Credit Delinquencies: Not Yet A Macro Red Flag – May 24, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

MRB TradeBook – One Big Winner And One Small Loser – May 24, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN STOPS… Continue



 

Economy – U.S: A Fading But Still Positive Government Contribution – May 23, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. economy has been boosted over the past four years by substantial fiscal support that is now fading.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Hope Versus Reality – May 17, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. inflation is proving stubborn, and holding well above the Fed’s 2% target.



 

Economy – U.S. Consumption: Don’t Fear The End Of Excess Savings – May 16, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Despite the strength of U.S. consumption over the past year, analysts continue to raise doubts about the outlook, based on the increased cost of borrowing, and the apparent depletion of households’ pandemic-period excess savings.



 

Webcast – Favor Interest Resilient Vs Interest Rate Vulnerable Currencies – (6min:45sec) – May 15, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

This week’s Webcast expands upon the main takeaways from last week’s foreign exchange research highlight…



 

U.S. Equities – Chemical Stocks: Destocking Is Over, But Don’t Expect Earnings Fireworks – May 14, 2024
 · Equities · 

The U.S. chemical industry is set to gradually return to growth in 2024-2025 following a period of contraction that was driven by significant inventory destocking beginning in Q3 2022…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Resilience, Rotation And Divergences – May 10, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is slowly improving, led by the still-strong U.S. Although the DM weak-link economies have slowed, they are not yet signaling undue stress.



 

MRB TradeBook – Positioning In Choppy Energy Markets – May 10, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are a few changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange – The Global Trade Upswing Supports Export-Driven Currencies – May 8, 2024
 · Foreign Exchange · 

A revival in global trade has historically translated into currency appreciation for export-driven economies for both developed and emerging markets.



 

Webcast – The Economy, Not The Fed Will Drive Markets – (13min:02sec) – May 7, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Bank On Fed Rate Cuts – May 3, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Swings in expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to drive global capital market performance.



 

MRB TradeBook – Turbulence Continues – May 3, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week:  CLOSED –… Continue



 

Policy – Fed: Inflation Reins-In The Easing Bias – May 2, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Recent firm U.S. inflation reports have reined-in the Fed’s easing bias, with the Fed now less confident that inflation will make steady progress toward its 2% goal in the months ahead.



 

Absolute Return – Capitalizing On G7 Central Bank Missteps And Divergences – May 2, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

Many investors and strategists focus far too much attention on reading the proverbial tea leaves of central banks (particularly the Federal Reserve) to decipher how policymakers intend to shift interest rates.



 

Politics – U.S. Election 2024: Checking In On The Swing State Economies – April 26, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

This year’s U.S. presidential election will be unusual in many ways, with the outcome driven by the extreme polarization of the American electorate…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Buckle Up: The Backdrop Will Be Challenging – April 26, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Remain underweight bonds within a multi-asset portfolio. Monetary conditions are not yet restrictive, as is evident by firming global growth.



 

MRB TradeBook – Volatility Shifts And Growth Stocks – April 26, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere were some changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: NEW –… Continue



 

Economy – U.S. Q1 GDP: Once Again, Sounder Than It Seemed – April 25, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. real GDP grew slower than expected in Q1 but the solid underlying performance of consumption and investment highlights that the economic trajectory retains a solid backbone.



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Q1 Earnings And What They Signal For The Outlook – April 25, 2024
 · Equities · 

Markets initially reacted negatively to the first-quarter earnings announcements of the major U.S. banks.



 

Webcast – Sticky CPI Inflation Is Here To Stay – (7min:08sec) – April 25, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

This week’s Webcastis an extension of a charts report published early this month. The report examined the trends in CPI in the developed world (DM)…



 

Economy – U.S. Rents: Another Source Of Sticky Inflation – April 24, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Inflation doves were hoping that a steady step-down in U.S. CPI/PCE rental inflation this year would boost the optics of inflation coming under (the Fed’s) control.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Correction, But Not (Yet) A Bear Market – April 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk asset markets will remain under pressure until the Treasury market calms.



 

Commodities – Gold Prices: A Perfect Storm – April 19, 2024
 · Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Is Goldilocks Over (For Now)? – April 18, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

MRB’s non-consensus outlook coming into 2024 was for “no landing” in the U.S. (or global) economy, stickier than expected consumer price inflation…



 

Policy – Memo To Central Banks: Mind The Output Gap – April 16, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The output gap is a straight-forward and powerful economic concept—is current GDP above or below potential GDP?



 

Video – Secular Stagnation: A Disastrous Assumption – (16min:15sec) – April 16, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

One of the most damaging assumptions ever made by policymakers, especially the Federal Reserve, as well as the broader investment community, was that the world fell into Secular Stagnation in the 2010s.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Maybe 5%, Not 4%, Is The New 2% – April 12, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A still robust U.S. economy and an improving global economic backdrop are positive for corporate profits and the global stock/bond ratio.



 

U.S. Equities – Energy Stocks: Macro Conditions Warrant Staying Long – April 11, 2024
 · Equities · 

U.S. energy stocks have enjoyed strong outperformance in recent months as oil prices have risen in response to improving global manufacturing PMIs and ongoing geopolitical unrest.



 

Economy – What’s Up With U.S. Inflation? – April 10, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

The pickup in U.S. consumer price inflation this year has put the Fed in an uncomfortable position given its guidance to cut the policy rate multiple times this year.



 

Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops On Long Oil And Go Long Energy Trades – April 5, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe initiated a long crude oil position early this year (currently up 12%) in… Continue



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Any Juice Left To Squeeze? – April 4, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

EM local currency debt (EMLCD) and its US$-denominated counterpart (EM$D) have sharply outperformed U.S. and G7 government bonds over the past two years.



 

Charts – Assessing CPI Inflation In The Developed World – April 3, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report examines the trends in CPI in the developed world and introduces the MRB CPI Diffusion Indexes (CPIDIs) for each of the G10 economies.



 

Webcast – U.S. Small Caps: Lacking Support From Relative Earnings – (9min:52sec) – April 2, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. small-cap stocks and the factors that have been holding back their relative performance.



 

Regional Equities – Market Broadening Will Continue – March 28, 2024
 · Equities · 

The latest dovish rhetoric from the Fed is a “green light” for risk taking and will support global equities in the near run, especially since global growth momentum is improving.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Long-Run Tailwind For Treasury Yields – March 28, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Signs of froth have emerged, but risk-on should persist until the next sustained rise in DM government bond yields develops, which we do not expect in the coming months.



 

Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Last Yield Anchor Lifts – March 26, 2024
 · Fixed Income · 

G7 government bond yields have bounced meaningfully this year as investors paired back their expectations for deep central bank rate cuts.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Free Money Era Is Officially Over – March 22, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Further near-run upside is probable in risk asset markets.



 

MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – March 22, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe recommend tightening stops on our long EM Asian equities position (up 11%) to… Continue



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Still Keen To Ease – March 21, 2024
Economics & Policy · 

Despite a stronger growth and inflation outlook, the Fed stuck to its dovish bias at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, remaining firm on its signal to cut rates three times this year.



 

Webcast – The Effects Of Higher Interest Rates On Currency Performance – (8min:12sec) – March 20, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

This week’s Webcast covers the highlights of last week’s global foreign exchange report.



 

U.S. Equities – Q4 2023 Earnings Review: Key Takeaways And The Outlook – March 19, 2024
 · Equities · 

Rising 12-month forward earnings and sales have been key sources of support for the rally in U.S. equity prices.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Rate-Cutting Window Closes Another Notch – March 15, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Ongoing U.S. economic strength and an improving global economic outlook warn against complacency on the inflation outlook.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening A Stop And Closing One Position – March 15, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some positioning changes in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN STOPS –… Continue



 

Equities – U.S. Tech Stocks: Size Matters – March 14, 2024
 · Equities · 

Today’s U.S. tech stocks may or may not be in a bubble, but it will be increasingly difficult to outperform given their huge size…



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Selective U.S. Dollar Underperformance – March 12, 2024
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has recently softened, after appreciating briefly in January and early-February.



 

U.S. Equities – Small Caps: Poor Relative Earnings Remain A Hindrance To Outperformance – March 11, 2024
 · Equities · 

U.S. small-cap stocks have rebounded from their lows in late-October, supported by the increase in risk appetite that has taken hold since the Fed began signaling that it had reached the end of its rate-hiking cycle.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Time To Diversify – March 5, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The economic and policy environment remains supportive of pro-growth investments, but the rally is not without risks.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…



 

Webinar – U.S. Equities: A Goldilocks Landing Has Been Priced. Now What? – (79min:10sec) – February 28, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for the U.S. equity market and MRB’s positioning recommendations and sector views.



 

U.S. Economy – Key Indicators – February 27, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Bearish consensus growth expectations are finally catching up to a better economic reality, and the forward market has lowered its expectations for Fed rate cuts meaningfully, as we had expected.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – One Window Is Closing, Is Another Opening? – February 23, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed et al have set themselves up for yet another pivot. The hoped-for return of inflation to 2 percent is not going to occur.



 

U.S. Equities – Exceptionalism Is Fully Discounted – February 22, 2024
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. equities have rallied strongly over the past four months, climbing to a… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticky Inflation: Is 4% The New 2%? – February 16, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed et al have set themselves up for yet another pivot. The hoped-for return of inflation to 2% is not going to occur.



 

U.S. Commercial Real Estate – On The Watch List – February 16, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

MRB TradeBook – Closed One Trade, And Added Two New Positions – February 16, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes in positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: NEW –… Continue



 

Webcast – The Fed & U.S. Treasurys: Lessons From The 1980s – (10min:27sec) – February 14, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Phillip Colmar discusses one of our big picture themes.



 

MRB TradeBook – Pro-Growth Is Winning, Equity Rotation Is Not (Yet) – February 9, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsOne of our core themes has been that the Fed pivot and drop in… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care: The Case For Favoring Medical Devices Over Managed Care Solidifies – February 8, 2024
 · Equities · 

The shares of U.S. managed care companies have been under pressure since industry bellwethers…



 

Charts – U.S. Consumption: Healthy Balance Sheets Underscore Resilience – February 7, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. households have very healthy balance sheets, including sizable excess savings, a benign debt-to-income ratio, a historically low debt servicing burden and meaningful wealth generation since the pandemic.



 

Theme – U.S. Economy: “No Landing” Is Underway – February 7, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis month we are highlighting our research on the U.S. economy and one of… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…



 

Theme – The Fed & U.S. Treasurys: Mirroring The 1980s – February 1, 2024
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

In many ways, the bond market is now mirroring (inversely) the early- to mid-1980s, which has been one of our core fixed-income themes in recent years.



 

Foreign Exchange – Taking The Pulse Of Weak-Link Currencies – February 1, 2024
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The list of weak-link currencies includes the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona and U.K. pound.



 

Webinar – U.S. Economy: Will It Stick The Landing? – (64min:57sec) – January 31, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Investors have a bit more faith in the U.S economic expansion this year than a year ago, encouraged by the prospect of policy rate cuts ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downgrade Alert(s) – January 26, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. economic conditions do not warrant lower policy rates, and such conditions are not likely to develop in 2024.



 

U.S. 2024 Election – Early Perspectives – January 26, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

U.S. Equities – Transportation Stocks: Primed To Rebound – January 25, 2024
 · Equities · 

The depressed relative performance of U.S. transportation stocks indicates that the market expects challenging industry conditions to persist in the coming year.



 

Webcast – U.S. High-Yield Corporate Bonds Should Outperform In 2024 – (9min:39sec) – January 24, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 6-12 month outlook for U.S. high-yield corporate bonds and appropriate positioning within a fixed-income portfolio.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks Is At Risk – January 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The front-running of DM policy rate cuts has eased only slightly of late, and is still far too aggressive relative to the economic/inflation outlook. 



 

Absolute Return Strategy – From “Soft Landing” To “No Landing” – January 18, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The equity and bond market are both priced for a Goldilocks U.S. economic outcome that is unlikely to persist as the year progresses.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. High-Yield Corporate Debt: Still Some Juice Left – January 16, 2024
 · Fixed Income · 

As is the case in most cycles, the economy, rather than a maturity wall or refinancing risk, will be the crucial driver of U.S. high-yield (HY) corporate bond performance in 2024.



 

Economy – Will The U.S. Labor Market Loosen Ahead? – January 12, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · Research Reports · 

U.S. employment growth has cooled over the past year, albeit from historically elevated levels, and the labor market is still relatively tight.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Aggressive Rate-Cut Expectations Leave Most Markets Vulnerable – January 12, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth prospects were already modestly upbeat last autumn and have improved further due to much lower DM policy rate expectations and the sizable rebound in global financial markets.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tighten Stops On A Winner, And Adding A New Position – January 12, 2024
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe are tightening the stop on our winning long natural gas position and initiating… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Technology Stocks: Facing More Than Just Rotational Headwinds – January 10, 2024
 · Equities · 

U.S. technology stocks led big gains in the equity market for most of 2023.



 

Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2023 Review – January 9, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.



 

MRB TradeBook – Adding Some New Positions – January 5, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsFinancial markets have started the year with a continued shift favoring laggard assets, which… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – 2024: More Pivots Ahead – December 22, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase is stretched and due for a pause. However, a return to risk-off is unlikely until bond yields resume rising, which is still some ways off.



 

2024 Regional Equities Outlook – Banking On Better Breadth – December 21, 2023
 · Equities · 

Our constructive economic outlook points to a period of catch-up for this year’s laggards, although it will likely take time to develop.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.



 

2024 U.S. Sector Outlook – Laggards Will Get The Limelight – December 19, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. stocks are exiting 2023 riding a wave of optimism, punctuating a year of strong performance for the popular benchmarks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Demand, Corporate Profitability, And Inflation Are All Resilient – December 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The deceleration in DM inflation will peter out with underlying inflation still well above central bank targets if the global economic expansion rolls on, as we expect.



 

Policy – U.S.: The New Fed Is Still The Old Fed – December 14, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Yesterday’s FOMC meeting marked a meaningful pivot in the Fed’s policy stance, as the Fed clearly signaled that it is considering easing the policy rate ahead.



 

2024 Absolute Return Outlook – Focus On The Tails – December 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

2023 has turned out to be a rollercoaster for financial asset markets, with investors flipflopping on the recession call and outlook for policy rates.



 

Webcast – Focus On Diverging Macro Trends For FX Strategy In 2024 – (7min:33sec) – December 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses the big-picture macro theme for 2024 and its ramifications for foreign exchange strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Learning Curve – December 8, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The aggressive front-running of the next rate-cutting cycle is working at cross purposes to monetary policy and will prolong the expansion, as signaled by the sharp flip from risk-off to risk-on in recent weeks.



 

2024 U.S. Economic Outlook – Continued Resilience – December 7, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

MRB’s U.S. economic outlook for 2023 panned out very well. As we had predicted a year ago…



 

2024 Asset Allocation Outlook – A Maturing Cycle, But The End Is Not Yet Nigh – December 1, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

A global or U.S. recession is not yet in the cards for 2024, although the lifespan of the economic expansion is inevitably shortening.



 

2024 Foreign Exchange Outlook – A Less U.S. Dollar Centric Year – November 30, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has had a volatile year with the most recent depreciation wiping out all of this year’s gains.



 

Webcast – Developed Economies, Central Banks & Bonds: What To Expect In 2024? – (9min:37sec) – November 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for developed economies, central bank policies, and bond market performance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.



 

2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy



 

U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: A Fed Pause Is Not An All-Clear Signal To Buy – November 21, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. real estate stocks have taken a beating in recent years. The sector, which is mostly comprised of REITs…



 

Global Equities – How Long Can Goldilocks Last? – November 21, 2023
 · Equities · 

Our constructive economic outlook provides scope for global equities to move higher in the near term…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tweaking Some Positions – November 17, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsU.S. health care stocks have underperformed the broad market in recent days causing us… Continue



 

U.S. Economy – Key Indicators – November 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Recent data show that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a decent pace, supporting our view that a U.S. recession remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.



 

Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.



 

Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.



 

MRB TradeBook – Some Tactical Changes – November 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.



 

U.S. Equities – Machinery Stocks: Staying Cautious – November 6, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. machinery stocks have underperformed the broad equity market since early-March, even as their relative 12-month forward earnings have continued to improve.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.



 

MRB TradeBook – Navigating The Volatility Shift – November 3, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsShifts in both equity and bond volatility have triggered several changes in the MRB… Continue



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Stepping Aside Without Declaring It – November 2, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged for the second consecutive FOMC meeting yesterday.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…



 

Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

U.S. Equities – Still Premature To Increase Defensive Positioning Beyond Health Care – October 24, 2023
 · Equities · 

Defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and health care have all lagged the broad U.S. equity market year-to-date.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.



 

Theme – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
 · Themes · 

The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.



 

Fixed Income – Focus On Rates Not The Slope Of The Yield Curve – October 19, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

There has been a notable increase in chatter about the implications of the recent steepening or de-inverting of the U.S. 2/10 Treasury curve, with some arguing it signals that a recession looms.



 

Fixed Income – U.S.: Parsing The Upside In Treasury Yields – October 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The meaningful rise in U.S. long-term bond yields since April has been driven by both cyclical and noncyclical factors.



 

Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.



 

U.S. Equities – Communication Services Stocks: Reasons To Stay Overweight – October 5, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. communication services stocks have seen their fortunes dramatically reverse in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.



 

MRB TradeBook – Volatility Shift – September 29, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsAngst associated with higher interest rates has continued to weigh on stock markets and… Continue



 

Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
 · Equities · 

Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…



 

Webinar – Will The Bond Market Spoil Goldilocks? – (71min:38sec) – September 27, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Webinar featured Salvatore Ruscitti discussing the macroeconomic outlook and the implications for the U.S. equity market and sector positioning.



 

Foreign Exchange – An Oil-Neutral Bet Levered To Europe: Long NOK/Short CAD – September 26, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have decoupled from the rebound in oil prices in recent months.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: A “Higher For Longer” Reality Is Sinking In – September 21, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Yesterday’s FOMC meeting left the policy rate unchanged, but participants revised up their policy rate expectations for next year, and a few raised their expectations for the longer-run policy rate



 

U.S. Equities – Small-Cap Stocks: Crosscurrents Keep Us On The Sidelines – September 19, 2023
 · Equities · 

Despite receding recession fears and concerns over the stretched performance of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks, U.S. small-cap equities have remained relatively out of favor with investors.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Distinguishing Between Winners And Losers – September 14, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has regained strength over the past two months supported by rising interest rate differentials and stronger relative growth on the back of a further unwinding of U.S. recession fears.



 

Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.



 

MRB TradeBook – Long U.S. Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure Stocks Vs Broad Market – September 8, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This position has corrected as of late, forcing us to book a 10%… Continue



 

Economy – R-Starring The U.S. Economy – September 6, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The resilience of the U.S. economy to higher policy rates in this cycle has led some investors and policymakers to speculate that the economy’s neutral real policy rate, or “R-star” may have risen following the pandemic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.



 

Global Equities – How Threatening Are Higher Bond Yields? – August 30, 2023
 · Equities · 

Global equities have re-rated significantly this year even as G7 10-year government bond yields have risen.



 

Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.



 

Webcast – U.S.: Don’t Be Distracted By Core Inflation’s Current Descent – (6min:38sec) – August 23, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the prospects for U.S. inflation and highlights that while core inflation is descending, its underlying trend…



 

U.S. Equities – Aerospace & Defense Stocks: Poised To Regain Altitude – August 22, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. aerospace & defense stocks have lagged the broad equity market year-to-date following significant outperformance in 2022.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Beware The Current Complacency – August 17, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Core CPI has begun decelerating more visibly than in the first half of this year.



 

Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops On Long Oil And Go Long Natural Gas – August 11, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

U.S. Equities – Moody’s Downgrade Of Banks Mostly Recognizes What Is Already Known – August 11, 2023
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Global Fixed Income – Another Upwave In Bond Yields Is Inevitable – August 9, 2023
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

After a brief reprieve beginning late last year, bonds have faced further losses since May as economy bears were caught wrongfooted on calls for a recession.



 

Webcast – Gold Bulls: Beware Higher Real Bond Yields – (6min:41sec) – August 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses MRB’s outlook for gold prices in the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.



 

U.S. Equities – Energy Stocks: Favor Service Providers Over Producers – August 1, 2023
 · Equities · 

The recent rally in oil prices has lifted U.S. energy stocks, which have lagged the broad equity market year-to-date.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.



 

Policy – Fed: Near A Hiking Halt On Inflation Optimism – July 27, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Yesterday’s widely anticipated Fed policy rate hike came with dovish policy communication from Fed chair Powell.



 

Commodities – Just Another Short-Lived Rally For Gold – July 26, 2023
 · Commodities · 

Gold prices have rebounded modestly this month, and briefly neared the top end of their post-pandemic trading range…



 

Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.



 

Global Equities: Identifying Opportunities Among Major Non-U.S. Markets – July 25, 2023
 · Equities · 

With all eyes recently on U.S. stocks, it is easy to miss important trends among the major non-U.S. markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.



 

Economy – U.S.: Will Consumption Fizzle When Excess Savings Run Out? – July 19, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. households accumulated a large pool of excess savings over the pandemic.



 

Theme – Artificial Intelligence: Less Than Meets The Eye For Equities – July 18, 2023
 · Themes · 

We are optimistic that A.I. can boost U.S. economic growth and productivity, although we caution that any estimate of the magnitude embodies considerable guesswork…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.



 

MRB TradeBook – Long Energy And Japanese Financials – July 14, 2023
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Earnings Must Jump Over A Higher Bar In Q2 – July 12, 2023
 · Equities · 

Second-quarter earnings are about to get underway, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.



 

Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”



 

Economy – U.S.: Checking In On The Services Sector – July 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Prominent gauges of U.S. service sector business sentiment diverged meaningfully earlier this year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk-On Until Bond Yields Breakout – July 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks and investors have begun capitulating closer to our view that the cost of capital has not yet reached destabilizing levels.



 

Webinar – U.S. Economy: Still Defying Bearish Narratives – (72min:58sec) – July 5, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar, Prajakta Bhide discusses why MRB still thinks that the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a recession over the foreseeable future…



 

U.S. Equities – Growth Stocks: Mounting Risks To The Rally – July 5, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. growth stocks have enjoyed a powerful resurgence this year versus their value brethren.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…



 

MRB TradeBook – Favor U.S. Large-Cap Banks Versus Their Regional Counterparts – June 30, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThe U.S. bank index has started to regain strength relative to the U.S. regional… Continue



 

Regional Equities – Mitigating Concentration Risk Across Regions And Sectors – June 29, 2023
 · Equities · 

Global equity market concentration risk has increased anew following the recent outperformance of U.S. tech and AI-related stocks.



 

Webcast – Three Underappreciated Factors That Will Support U.S. Bank Earnings – (9min:54sec) – June 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. bank earnings.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…



 

Foreign Exchange – The Euro Is Regaining Strength To Start The Summer – June 23, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Earnings Face A Wall Of Worry, But Not A Cliff-Dive – June 20, 2023
 · Equities · 

The earnings of U.S. bank stocks face several crosscurrents in the year ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.



 

Policy – U.S.: The Fed Acknowledges Economic Resilience – June 15, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

As we expected, the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged at yesterday’s FOMC meeting.



 

Webcast – U.S.: Inflation Is Still Too High For The Fed’s Comfort – (8min:39sec) – June 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. inflation…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: The Underlying Trend Is Still Firm – June 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core inflation is descending very slowly from its pandemic-propelled peak.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.



 

U.S. Equities – Energy Equipment & Services Stocks: Time To Start Nibbling – June 5, 2023
 · Equities · 

The U.S. energy equipment & services sub-group has lagged the overall equity benchmark year-to-date, along with the broader energy sector.



 

MRB TradeBook – Euro Area Versus U.S. Equities – June 2, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsEuro area equities have come under significant more selling pressure compared to their U.S…. Continue



 

Webcast – Stay Selective With The U.S. Dollar – (8min:04sec) – June 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets based on the just-published global foreign exchange report. 



 

Global Foreign Exchange – No Recession = A Short-Lived U.S. Dollar Revival – May 31, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has regained some strength in recent weeks on the back of the unwinding of oversold conditions and persistent recession fears that have led to a churning global stock market which has benefited defensive currencies.



 

Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.



 

Fixed Income – The Irony Of The Inverted Yield Curve – May 26, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Webcast – U.S. Recession: Answers To Five FAQs – (9min:27sec) – May 24, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for the U.S. economy and addresses some of the questions that we have been frequently asked by clients regarding our non-consensus call that a recession is not imminent.



 

Economy – U.S: Data Continue Defying Bearish Narratives – May 23, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

We remain of the view that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession for the foreseeable future.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Isn’t Over – May 19, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist over the summer.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Late Cycle: Leaning Against The Consensus Yet Again – May 18, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The economic expansion has matured, and the investment cycle is now late.



 

U.S. Equities – It Gets Tougher From Here – May 16, 2023
 · Equities · 

The 6-12 month outlook for the U.S. equity market remains uninspiring.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.



 

Economy – Challenging The U.S. Recession View (Part II) – May 11, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Our view has been that we are in a mature phase of the U.S. and global economic expansion, but not yet at the onset of recession.



 

Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Economy – Challenging The U.S. Recession View (Part I) – May 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

There is no shortage of things to worry about and the potential for a U.S. recession is nontrivial.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.



 

MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – May 5, 2023
Absolute Return · 

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Policy – U.S. Fed: A Pause Is Just A Pause – May 4, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed hiked the policy rate by a quarter percentage point at yesterday’s FOMC meeting and signaled an upcoming pause in its tightening cycle.



 

U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: Exceptional Valuations For Unexceptional Earnings – May 3, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. tech stocks have bounced back strongly this year after enduring a brutal sell-off in 2022.



 

Webcast – U.S.: A Sentiment Swing Is Skewing The Macro Story – (7min:12sec) – May 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses MRB’s “no-recession” call, highlighting the unusual shifts in recent U.S. macro data that may have skewed recession indicators in an excessively bearish direction.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.



 

Global Equities – Banks Are A Key Tell For Equity Performance – April 28, 2023
Equities · 

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Economy – U.S: Revisiting Recession Risks- April 27, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. economic prospects were perceived to take a meaningful hit following the spike in U.S. banking sector stress in March.



 

Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.



 

Economics & Policy – Contracting U.S. M2: Less To It Than Meets The Eye – April 21, 2023
Economics & Policy · 

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Policy – U.S. Fiscal Policy Outlook: Tough Choices Loom – April 20, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The federal budget is on an unsustainable path based on current law and mainstream expectations about the long-term economic outlook.



 

U.S. Equities – Earnings Outlook: Can Sales Expectations Hold Up? – April 19, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. corporate earnings will remain in the spotlight in the next few weeks as more companies report first-quarter numbers.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.



 

Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.



 

MRB TradeBook – Two New Equity Positions And One Closed Pair Trade – April 6, 2023
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Economic Concerns Mount, But Too Early To Go All-In On Defensives – April 5, 2023
 · Equities · 

Strains in the banking system have raised concerns about a retrenchment in bank lending, with negative implications for the broader U.S. economy.



 

Foreign Exchange – Higher Interest Rates Will Snap The Weak Link Currencies – April 4, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Weak-link economies are at increasing risk of experiencing a recession triggered by higher borrowing rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Back To Pre-SVB Levels? – March 31, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain constructive on global economic prospects for the next 6-12 months, and do not expect much fallout from this month’s banking problems.



 

Webcast – The Toppling Of Economic Dominos – (8min:26sec) – March 30, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar provides a contrast between the current macro environment compared to that of the 2010s.



 

Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Positioning – March 30, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, but we expect the banking sector stresses to soon die down and for the global economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace.



 

Global Fixed Income – Snapping Weak Links – March 29, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

Volatility in the U.S. and G7 government bond markets has surged again in response to U.S. and European banking system strains.



 

Economy – U.S. Bank Outflows: Not That Alarming For The Economy – March 29, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report takes a closer look at flows out of U.S. banks and into money market funds in the aftermath of the heightened banking sector stress that followed from two prominent bank failures earlier this month.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…



 

MRB TradeBook – Rapid Volatility Shift – March 24, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Angst associated with the potential for a global banking crisis has diminished a… Continue



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: A Dovish Hike, But No Cuts In Sight – March 23, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed continued to tighten policy at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, using dovish forward policy guidance to address the recent developments in the U.S. banking sector.



 

U.S. Equities – Changes To The GICS® Structure: What Investors Need To Know – March 22, 2023
 · Equities · 

Changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) will be made in the coming months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tip Of The Iceberg, Or Only A Brief Interruption? – March 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-off backdrop could persist in the near term, until banking fears start to subside.



 

Fed Policy – Juggling Mandates Will Not Lead To Rate Cuts This Year – March 17, 2023
Economics & Policy · 

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MRB TradeBook – Protecting Profits During A Mini-Panic – March 17, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The euro area financial sector came under intense selling pressure this week which… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Interest Rate Normalization & Global Financial Stocks – March 15, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

There are still widespread recession concerns, entrenched optimism on much lower inflation, and investors are generally confused about where we are in the economic and investment cycle.



 

Webcast – U.S. Bank Stocks: Idiosyncratic Rather Than Systemic Risks – (9min:29sec) – March 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the implications of recent developments in the banking industry and their impact on U.S. bank stocks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.



 

MRB TradeBook – Taking Profits – March 10, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsMarket volatility has caused us to take profits on three positions this week, these… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Addressing Three Popular Questions – March 9, 2023
 · Equities · 

Rising interest rates bring both opportunities and risks for the banking industry.



 

Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – A Different Year For The U.S. Dollar – March 7, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S dollar decline has stabilized as of late on the back of a further rise in U.S. interest rates compared to other markets and related risk-off phase.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.



 

MRB TradeBook – New Equity Pair Trade – March 3, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsLong U.S. Industrials Vs Consumer Discretionary Stocks: U.S. industrials have started to outperform their… Continue



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: Premature Optimism – March 2, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing market activity dropped sharply alongside higher mortgage rates last year…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.



 

Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.



 

Webcast – Equity Dilemma: Stronger Economy Vs Higher Bond Yields – (10min:05sec) – February 22, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the major macro forces driving equities and bonds and narrows in on the current outlook for investment strategy.



 

Foreign Exchange – Gold Or Cryptos: Which One Is More Appealing? – February 21, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The pause in bond yields late last year encouraged global equity investors to embrace risk-on across the board…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.



 

MRB TradeBook – Taking A (Tactical) Profit – February 17, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsLong U.S. 10-Year Treasury: This tactical position was stopped out this week with a… Continue



 

Equity Sectors – Which U.S. Sectors Are Most At Risk From Profit Margin Normalization? – February 17, 2023
Equities · 

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Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
 · Equities · 

There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…



 

Policy – U.S. CPI: A Bit More Heat Than Meets The Eye – February 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Year-over-year core CPI inflation has eased and will continue to decline this year, but the January CPI report underscored that the road will be bumpy.



 

Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.



 

Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue



 

Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.



 

Commodities – Upgrade As Headwinds Fade – February 3, 2023
Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe are upgrading commodities to neutral as China and the euro area regain economic… Continue



 

Policy – U.S.: The Market’s Had Enough, But The Fed’s Not Done – February 2, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued a smaller rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, setting the tone for terminating the ongoing phase of policy tightening in a few months.



 

U.S. Equities – Small-Cap Stocks: Bullish Bets Are Not Yet Warranted – February 1, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. small-cap stocks have outperformed their large-cap counterparts over the past year.



 

Webinar – Our No-Recession, Non-Consensus U.S. View Explained – (68min:00sec) – January 31, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar, Prajakta Bhide discusses why the U.S. economy remains likely to avoid a recession over the next year…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.



 

Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2022 Review – January 24, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.



 

Webcast – The Impediments To A Revival Of U.S. Growth-Stock Leadership In 2023 – (9min:53sec) – January 18, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for the U.S. style cycle and addresses whether growth stocks can rebound in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.



 

Policy – U.S. CPI: Easing Steadily, But Medium-Term Signals Remain Firm – January 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inflation is unwinding last year’s spike, driven by falling goods prices.



 

Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.



 

2023 U.S. Style Outlook – Can Growth Stocks Rebound? – January 10, 2023
 · Equities · 

Last year was annus horribilis for U.S. growth stocks. The latter bore the brunt of investor concerns over sharply rising inflation and interest rates.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth



 

2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
 · Equities · 

A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar



 

2023 U.S. Sector Outlook – Another Year Of Challenges, But With Some Opportunities – December 21, 2022
 · Equities · 

Next year will bring slower U.S. economic growth and moderating inflation, which should lead to at least a temporary pause in Fed rate hikes.



 

Webcast – The U.S. Economic Outlook For Next Year – (9min:17sec) – December 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. economy for the next year, highlighting the reasons why we think that a recession will likely be avoided.goalposts.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Global Economic Headwinds Easing – December 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some economic headwinds have recently eased, even as the major DM central banks have continued to hike their policy rates.



 

Fed Policy – December FOMC Meeting: Key Takeaways – December 16, 2022
Economics & Policy · 

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Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – December 9, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Theme – U.S. Treasurys: Rhyming (Inversely) With The 1980s – December 8, 2022
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

It is common for investor expectations and market pricing to persistently lag economic fundamentals at secular turning points.



 

2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.



 

2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…



 

Economy – U.S. Consumption: Will Exceed Expectations, Again – December 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Amid high inflation, tighter financial conditions, and concerns over an impending economic slowdown, U.S. consumer spending has remained fairly resilient this year.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – 2023 FX Outlook: Selectivity Will Be Key – November 29, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

A successful FX strategy in 2023 will entail a major change in tactics, as oversold and undervalued currencies are set to regain strength against the historically overextended U.S. dollar.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.



 

U.S. Equities – The Implications Of A Desynchronized U.S. Profit Cycle – November 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The U.S. profit cycle has decelerated sharply this year after a period of extraordinary growth following the re-opening of the economy in 2021.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Patience And Realism Required – (12min:48sec) – November 22, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns and the implications for strategic asset allocation over the next decade.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;



 

MRB TradeBook – Update On Risk-On Positioning – November 18, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…



 

Webcast – Investment Implications Of Interest Rate Normalization – (11min:00sec) – November 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar outlines frameworks for understanding the process of interest rate normalization…



 

Charts – U.S. Labor Market: A Gradual Slowdown – November 15, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. labor market momentum is cooling alongside the unwinding of monetary policy, but the labor market is still historically tight.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.



 

Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Is All The Bad News Discounted? – November 8, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. semiconductor stocks have posted big losses in 2022, with the semiconductor & semi-equipment index falling nearly 40% year-to-date on growing fears of a recession.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Smaller Hikes, But For Longer – November 3, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued a fourth consecutive 75 bps rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting but signaled a step-down in the pace of rate increases at upcoming policy meetings.



 

Webcast – U.S. Consumer Discretionary Stocks Will Remain Challenged – (11min:11sec) – November 2, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti examines the outlook for U.S. consumer discretionary stocks.



 

Foreign Exchange – Favor The Euro Versus Currencies In Weak Link Economies – November 2, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The backdrop for the euro area could become much brighter than is currently anticipated…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Tactically Adding More Beta – October 28, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Too Early To Get More Constructive – October 27, 2022
 · Equities · 

We entered 2022 with an underweight recommendation on the U.S. consumer discretionary sector.



 

Policy – U.S: Inflation Will Complicate A Fed Pivot – October 25, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Persistent upside surprises in core CPI inflation through Q3 have fueled a debate on whether an outsize lagged rise in rent inflation is exaggerating inflation’s strength.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.



 

Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue



 

Webcast – Elevated Inflation Has Made Central Banks Blindly Hawkish – (5min:00sec) – October 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, we discuss monetary policy based on last week’s MRB Research Highlight, that “tighter” monetary policy is still required in the developed world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – New Equity Pair Trade – October 14, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Road & Rail Stocks: Why Relative Performance Is At Risk Of Getting Derailed – October 13, 2022
 · Equities · 

The U.S. Class 1 railroads are great businesses. That said, these companies are not impervious to an economic slowdown/downturn, nor are they immune to operational challenges.



 

Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.



 

Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Speed Kills – October 5, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed’s plan to outrun inflation by continuing aggressive rate hikes in the future implies that U.S. (and global) recession odds have risen, and risks to global financial stability have mounted.



 

U.S. Equities – Patience Is Prudence – October 5, 2022
 · Equities · 

Equities have started the fourth quarter on a more upbeat note after one of the worst Septembers on record.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Financial Markets Approach A Critical Juncture – September 30, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Global Fixed Income – A Global Bond Market Riot Erupts – September 29, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The Bank of England has, temporarily, arrested a riot in the U.K. Gilt market that was threatening all major government bond markets.



 

Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
 · Equities · 

Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.



 

Webcast – Growth Concerns Are Driving Currencies – (11min:22sec) – September 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets, leveraging some of the research in this month’s global foreign exchange report.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – September 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Although a recession over the 6-12 months has not been our base-case scenario, the odds of this outcome are increasing and will continue to climb if the rise in interest rate expectations persists unabated.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Higher Interest Rates Curb Risk Taking – September 23, 2022
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are facing renewed selling pressure and will continue to do so… Continue



 

Policy – The Fed: Honesty Is The Best Policy – September 23, 2022
Economics & Policy · 

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Policy – U.S. Fed: Peak Hawkishness, Or More To Come? – September 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued another 75 bps rate hike yesterday and signaled further large increases for this year’s remaining policy meetings.



 

Theme – When Will The (Recession) Wolf Arrive? – September 21, 2022
 · Themes · 

The wolf eventually arrived in the fable of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”.



 

Roundtable – Positioning In A World Of Higher-For-Longer Interest Rates – (79min:22sec) – September 21, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Salvatore Ruscitti discussing the outlook for the U.S. equity market and the implications of higher-for-longer interest rates on portfolio positioning.



 

Fixed Income – High-Yield Corporate Debt Will Be Resilient – September 20, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. high-yield corporate debt has been a major casualty of the past four recessions, leading many to argue that the asset class is poised to suffer heavily again in the year ahead and warranting an underweight stance within a fixed-income portfolio.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.



 

Policy – U.S. CPI: No Time To Rest – September 14, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The August CPI report showed renewed strength in services inflation, and no respite from rising goods prices



 

Webcast – Still Lots Of Challenges – (10min:46sec) – September 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the coming 6-12 months.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Recession Fears Are Driving Currencies – September 14, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The dominant driver for FX markets shifted in recent months from interest rate differentials



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Understanding The Fed’s Influence – September 13, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. Treasurys have faced dramatic selling pressure and heightened volatility since the Fed found itself wrongfooted in missing the historical rise in consumer price inflation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Update Given Market Volatility – September 9, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Webcast – The Outlook For U.S. Home Prices – (7min:26sec) – September 8, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide highlights the weak performance of recent U.S. housing indicators and discusses the outlook for home prices for next year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.



 

Economy – U.S. Housing Market: How Much Price Downside Ahead? – August 31, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. housing market has rapidly become the weakest-performing sector of the economy, with higher mortgage rates deterring demand meaningfully in recent months.



 

Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.



 

U.S. Equities – Our Favorite Charts – August 26, 2022
 · Equities · 

Today’s report presents some of our recent “favorite” charts.



 

Economy – U.S.: Holding Up – August 25, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The forward market is pricing in Fed policy easing by the middle of next year which implicitly assumes that the U.S economy will be in a recession by that time.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy



 

Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
 · Themes · 

There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk-On For Now, But Only If Bonds Stay Calm – August 19, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A cooling in inflation after the spike in the past year will prolong the pause phase in government bond markets. This, in turn, will support equities and credit in the coming months.



 

U.S. Equities – Does The Inflation Reduction Act Warrant A More Cautious Stance On U.S. Health Care Stocks? – August 15, 2022
 · Equities · 

Last Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Inflation Reduction Act.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Payback Versus Catching Up – August 12, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

As expected, U.S. inflation has rolled over and will decelerate in the coming months, which will boost the prospects for extending the global economic expansion.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Adding Beta – August 12, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Policy – U.S. CPI: Is This A Real Break In The Trend? – August 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report discusses Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, which saw monthly headline inflation flattening in July and core inflation easing back after a sharp sequential acceleration in Q2.



 

Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.



 

Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.



 

U.S. Equities – Chemical Stocks: Trouble Brewing – August 3, 2022
 · Equities · 

Year-to-date, U.S. chemical stocks have performed broadly in line with the overall equity market, albeit with considerable volatility.



 

Economy – U.S. Q2 GDP: Don’t Jump The Recession Gun – August 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Many analysts are interpreting the second consecutive contraction in quarterly real GDP in Q2 as a confirmation that a U.S. recession is underway.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Mixed Messages – July 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

“Pause #2” in the cyclical bond yield uptrend is well advanced, and further downside in yields from current levels should be limited.



 

Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
 · Themes · 

The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Awaiting A Break In Inflation – July 28, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy after yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which saw the Fed issue another 75 bps rate hike



 

Webcast – Dividends Matter – (8min:54sec) – July 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins examines dividends across global equity markets to provide support for equity portfolios in a turbulent investment climate.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Positioning Update – July 22, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Equities – As Go Industrials, So Go Equities – July 22, 2022
Equities · 

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Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
 · Themes · 

The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.



 

Webcast – U.S. Recession 101 – (8min:10sec) – July 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the criteria that distinguish recessions from more moderate economic downturns



 

U.S. Equities – How Much Bad News Is In The Market? – July 19, 2022
 · Equities · 

The year-to-date decline in U.S. stock prices has been almost entirely driven by a contraction in valuation multiples.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.



 

Economy – U.S: Risks Rising, But Recession Forecast Is Premature – July 15, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Pessimism regarding the U.S. economic outlook remains elevated, with recession forecasts becoming the consensus



 

Webcast – U.S. Growth Stocks: Relatively Oversold, But Not Compelling – (9min:25sec) – July 13, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses whether U.S. growth stocks can re-assert equity leadership in the second half of the year.



 

Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
 · Equities · 

After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.



 

Global Fixed Income – A Volatile Consolidation – July 8, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

There is a great deal of uncertainty facing fixed-income markets which is reflected in the very elevated level of bond volatility.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Adding Beta & Tightening Stops – July 8, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Will Recession Concerns Revive The Relative Performance Of U.S. Growth Stocks? – July 7, 2022
 · Equities · 

There is a growing belief emerging among some investors that U.S. equity leadership will revert to growth equities in the second half of the year as inflation peaks



 

Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Recession Or Resilience? – July 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Anxiety about the global growth outlook will persist in the near term, resulting in choppy capital market conditions and room for bond yields to retreat at least mildly further.



 

Roundtable – Will The U.S. Economy Land On Its Feet? – (68min:57sec) – June 29, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Roundtable, Prajakta Bhide discusses the likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next year



 

Commodities – Gold Over Crypto As Liquidity Boom Ends – June 28, 2022
 · Commodities · Foreign Exchange · 

Although gold and bitcoin have been promoted as hedges against inflation and fiat currency debasement, there is still no clear correlation in the performance of the two.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care Stocks Remain A Core Defensive Holding – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. health care stocks have outperformed the broad equity market year-to-date, led by the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology sub-groups



 

Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks



 

Webcast – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Extended But Propped Up By Risk-Off – (7min:58sec) – June 21, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa provides our latest analysis of the U.S. dollar and global currency markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Elevated Volatility – June 17, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Policy – U.S. Fed: A Self-Made Pickle – June 16, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy after yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year



 

Policy – U.S. CPI: Sticker Shock – June 13, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report discusses Friday’s U.S. CPI report which underscored persistently high inflationary pressures in the economy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.



 

Equities – Global Earnings: Some Cracks Are Starting To Appear – June 10, 2022
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Earnings Upgrades Starting To Take Hold – June 9, 2022
 · Equities · 

After sharply outperforming in January, U.S. bank stocks have lagged the broad equity market since the Russian invasion of Ukraine amid rising recession concerns



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
 · Themes · 

One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth



 

Webcast – Gauging The Risk Of A U.S. Recession – (9min:15sec) – June 2, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses prospects for the U.S. economy, in the context of rising worries that the economy is heading toward a recession.



 

Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.



 

Equities – U.S. Stocks: Too Late To Sell, Too Soon To Buy? – May 27, 2022
Equities · 

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Economy – Are Worries Of A Looming U.S. Recession Justified? – May 26, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. economic growth has cooled, partly due to base effects after a booming 2021, and partly due to high inflation, including the jump in energy prices this year.



 

U.S. Equities – Q1 Earnings: What We Learned And What To Expect Going Forward – May 26, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. first-quarter earnings season is nearly in the books, with most members of the S&P 500 having reported results.



 

Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets



 

Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – May 20, 2022
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsAfter the recent equity market selloff, we recommend tightening stops to protect 7% of… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange – A Reality Check For Cryptos – May 20, 2022
Foreign Exchange · 

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Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: Cooling Demand, But Not Prices (Yet) – May 17, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing market activity will be an important gauge for whether the Fed’s policy normalization is reining-in aggregate demand as intended.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.



 

Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.



 

Policy – U.S.: The Fed Steps It Up, Hoping For A Break Later – May 5, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.



 

Asset Allocation – Extraordinary Times – April 29, 2022
Asset Allocation · Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Aerospace & Defense Stocks: On A Slow, But Positive Trajectory – April 28, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. aerospace & defense stocks have significantly outperformed the broad equity market year-to-date.



 

Webcast – The Great Bond Market Capitulation – (7min:48sec) – April 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses this year’s dramatic selloff in government bonds and provides a roadmap of what to expect heading forward.



 

Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Adding Or Cutting Exposure? – April 26, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The euro has recently been weighed down by ongoing geopolitical turmoil within Europe, as well as the moderation in regional and global growth in response to the war in Ukraine.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.



 

U.S. Equity Sectors – Tech Stocks: It May Be More Than Just Valuation Headwinds – April 22, 2022
Equities · 

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Economy – U.S.: Checking In On Consumers – April 21, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Real retail sales eased for the second consecutive month in March, warranting a closer look at whether inflation is starting to meaningfully deter consumer demand.



 

Theme – Government Bonds: This Is What Capitulation Looks Like (Phase 1) – April 21, 2022
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The violent selloff in U.S. and G7 government bonds reflects the beginning of a major capitulation by both central banks and bond bulls



 

Economy – U.S. Unemployment Is NOT Flashing A Warning Sign For Stocks – April 19, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The level of U.S. unemployment is often overlooked as an investment timing tool and yet can provide significant value to investors



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.



 

Webcast – U.S. Bank Stocks: Earnings Will Have A Second Upleg – (11min:50sec) – April 13, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. bank stocks.



 

Economy – Euro Area: Divergent Interest Rate Sensitivities – April 12, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

Euro area interest rate expectations are ratcheting higher as the ECB will unwind monetary accommodation to address the region’s elevated and rising inflation rate.



 

Economy – U.S Inflation: The Heat Is (Still) On – April 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inflation has not yet turned around from its post-pandemic surge.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.



 

Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs Long Term Outlook – April 7, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The macro backdrop has been more supportive for the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies this year.



 

U.S. Equities – Utility Stocks: The Catalysts For Sustained Outperformance Are Not In Place – April 6, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. utility stocks have enjoyed a relative bounce in recent months after a period of extended underperformance.



 

Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Curve: What’s The Message, If Anything? – March 31, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has become a topic of high interest once again, now that it has become flat beyond 2 years, with segments of the curve mildly inverting.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Fed Plays Catch-Up – March 30, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The sell-off in the global fixed-income market has been severe over the past several months, particularly for U.S. Treasurys.



 

U.S. Equities – Putin Or Powell: Who Matters More For U.S. Bank Stocks? – March 29, 2022
 · Equities · 

After strongly outperforming in January, U.S. bank stocks have lagged in the past couple of months, with relative performance weighed down by economic uncertainty stemming from the war in Ukraine.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – March 25, 2022
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis week’s equity rebound triggered the stop-buy on our long Japanese equity position and… Continue



 

Regional Equities – Post-War Performance Shifts Lie Ahead – March 24, 2022
 · Equities · 

The war in Ukraine is a near-term wildcard, but our expectation of an ongoing global economic recovery…



 

Roundtable – Positioning In Treacherous Markets – (72min:33sec) – March 23, 2022
Uncategorized · Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Roundtable, Salvatore Ruscitti discussed the outlook for the U.S. equity market and provided a road map for how to position portfolios for the next 6-12 months.



 

Economy – U.S.: Key Indicators – March 23, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The narrowing U.S. 2/10 Treasury yield spread suggests that bond investors are concerned…



 

Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – March 18, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Global Foreign Exchange – The Impact Of Geopolitics On FX Strategy – March 17, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The shunning of Russia from the global economy has heightened market volatility and created a dent in economic sentiment



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Front Loaded Tightening Won’t Cut It – March 16, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Uncategorized · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following today’s FOMC meeting



 

Equities – Global Equity Energy Plays: What’s In The Price? – March 15, 2022
 · Equities · 

Global energy stock prices are embedding a significant decline in crude oil prices



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – March 11, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Economy – U.S.: Will Higher Gasoline Prices Derail Consumption? – March 10, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The impact of higher gasoline prices on U.S. consumer spending and concludes that the direct damage should be limited given the economy’s underlying solid momentum.



 

Webcast – Looking Beyond The 0-1 Geopolitical Bet – (10min:42sec) – March 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and investment strategy for the next 6-12 months in the context of the Ukraine war.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – March 4, 2022
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThe Ukraine war has weighed on two key euro area positions, causing us to… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Hotel, Restaurant & Leisure Stocks: The Bullish Case Rests On Blockbuster Earnings – March 3, 2022
 · Equities · 

The sharp decline in Omicron cases has rekindled investor interest in stocks leveraged to a recovery in consumer spending on travel and leisure.



 

Economy – Assessing Total Inflation Risks In The Developed World – March 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The MRB Total Inflation Measure offers a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures within an economy by including other sources of inflationary/disinflationary pressures beyond consumer price inflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – February 25, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Commodities – Geopolitics Benefit Gold Prices, But Watch Real Yields – February 25, 2022
Commodities · 

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Economy – U.S. Housing: The Fallout From Higher Mortgage Rates – February 24, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

With the Fed set to soon embark on its policy rate-hiking cycle, worries that higher borrowing costs will choke out the housing market have mounted, even though mortgage rates are still historically very low.



 

Roundtable – Russia/Ukraine And U.S. Elections: Navigating The Geopolitical Minefields – (67min:00sec) – February 23, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s Mehran Nakhjavani and Peter Perkins discussed two key geopolitical issues for global capital markets in this Roundtable, namely the Ukraine-Russia military threat and the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Distorting To Reflective To Restrictive – February 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cyclically bearish on bonds, although yields could soon pause; conditions are becoming technically stretched and U.S. rate expectations have already ratcheted higher.



 

Commodities – Oil Prices Frustrate Fundamental Investors – February 18, 2022
Commodities · 

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U.S. Equities – Continue To Favor U.S. Health Care Stocks Over Other Defensive Sectors – February 17, 2022
 · Equities · 

The shift of monetary policy from ultra-accommodative towards normalization is ushering in a regime of greater volatility in the equity and bond markets



 

Webcast – COVID Fades: The Impact Of Reopening – (9min:03sec) – February 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses what the unwinding of the pandemic means for the global economy, policy, and investment strategy.



 

Economy – Gauging The U.S. Economy’s Interest Rate Tipping Point – February 15, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The unwinding of monetary accommodation by the Federal Reserve will have widespread and significant impacts on the U.S. economy and capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Tug Of War – February 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth will remain solid, as service sector activity will improve as economic restrictions are relaxed. Above-trend growth and rising underlying inflation will force policymakers to unwind the liquidity boom.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – End Of COVID And Free Money – February 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The two themes that will be crucial in shaping the global macro environment this year are the fading of COVID as a meaningful restraint on global mobilit



 

Webcast – The Ebbing Liquidity Wave – (9min:33sec) – February 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months highlight.



 

Theme – Central Banks Start Thinking About Thinking – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports After massively lagging the economic recovery and inflation, central banks across the developed… Continue



 

Theme – COVID Exiting: Service Sector Resurgence Ahead – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Omicron wave is fading rapidly, and a sense of relief and renewed… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Growth Stocks: The Road Ahead Will Remain Rocky – February 9, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. growth stocks are in a tough spot. After massively re-rating in recent years, valuations relative to value equities are stretched at a time when bond yields are rising and central banks have started removing monetary accommodation.



 

Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity-Based Currencies: Where Are The Opportunities? – February 8, 2022
Foreign Exchange · 

Developed commodity-based currencies have decoupled from the rebound in commodity prices in recent months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: No Imminent Peak – February 3, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

U.S. annual core inflation is at a four-decade high, and inflation’s persistent sequential strength implies that a peak is not yet imminent.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – January 28, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Foreign Exchange – FX Portfolio Insurance – January 28, 2022
Foreign Exchange · 

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Fed Policy – Quotes From Chairman Powell – January 28, 2022
Economics & Policy · 

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Equities – Mind The Credit Signal – January 28, 2022
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Taking Advantage Of Market Volatility – January 27, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. equities have started the year on a turbulent note.



 

Roundtable – U.S. Economy: Looking Past The Speedbumps – (62min:00sec) – January 26, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Roundtable, Prajakta Bhide discussed the outlook for U.S. growth and inflation including the key upside and downside risks, and the likely course of monetary policy.



 

Economy – U.S.: Beyond Omicron, Still Decent Growth Ahead – January 25, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report takes a close look at the prospects for U.S. growth, inflation, and Fed policy, beyond the near-term negative consequences of the Omicron wave.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.



 

Equities – Global Financials: Regional Opportunities In An Attractive Sector – January 21, 2022
Equities · 

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Webcast – Conditions Favor A U.S. Small-Cap Rebound In 2022 – (11min:04sec) – January 19, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. small-cap stocks.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – A Choppy Transition – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Last year was largely characterized by risk-on, fueled by extremely accommodative global monetary and fiscal policies, and a massive liquidity wave.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2021 Review – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Our macro-outlook for 2021 panned out well. Specifically, we correctly called for a… Continue



 

Equities – Wages Aren’t The Main Near-Term Threat To U.S. Profits – January 18, 2022
 · Equities · 

Increasing labor costs will restrain U.S. profit margins over the next year and beyond, but the moderation in corporate revenue growth will be the primary driver of slowing earnings growth on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Follow The Leader, But Also Watch The Laggards – January 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic growth will be more resilient and stronger than last decade, given the more accommodative policy backdrop and fewer structural drags (the end of deleveraging and fiscal austerity in the U.S. and euro area).



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Credit Performance During The Initial Stage Of Fed Rate Hiking Cycles – January 14, 2022
Fixed Income · 

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Equities – The Risk Of An Unpredictable Fed – January 14, 2022
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Too Early To Write-Off U.S. Small-Cap Stocks – January 13, 2022
 · Equities · 

After massively outperforming in the 12 months following the market low in March 2020, U.S. small-cap stocks have significantly lagged their large-cap counterparts in the past nine months.



 

U.S. – Unanticipated Inflation: Lessons From The Past 40 Years – January 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. macro landscape has flipped over relative to 40 years ago in terms of price pressures and the entrenched biases in the financial community.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.



 

Regional Equities – 2022 Outlook: Baby Steps To A Regional Equity Rotation – December 23, 2021
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop for global equities will remain broadly supportive in 2022, but performance will be more volatile as global interest rates rise.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.



 

Economy – The Omicron Variant: How Big A Setback For U.S. Growth? – December 23, 2021
Economics & Policy · 

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Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – 2022 U.S. Sector Outlook: Slower Growth Does Not Mean Low Growth – December 22, 2021
 · Equities · 

Next year is shaping up to be a more challenging period for the U.S. equity market.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Currency Strategy For 2022 – December 21, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights MRB’s currency strategy for next year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part I) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

One of our core themes in 2021 has been that the global authorities have forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: This Pivot Is Just The First Step – December 16, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

Global Fixed Income – The 2022 Fixed Income Outlook: Implications Of The Fed’s “Hawkish” Pivot – December 14, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

The key theme for global fixed-income markets in 2022 will be the capitulation to a less “transitory” and more resilient inflation and growth environment.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Prolonging The Cycle – December 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run COVID-19 related headwinds will act to prolong the economic cycle, but seem unlikely to derail the recovery, based on current information.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – December 10, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Favor Industrials Over Consumer Discretionary For 2022 – December 9, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. consumer discretionary stocks have outperformed their industrial counterparts year-to-date.



 

Policy – Emergency Monetary Policy Is No Longer Required – December 8, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the central banks in the developed world, as well as supporting charts.



 

U.S. Economy – Key Indicators – December 3, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. economic momentum is improving heading into 2022. Real consumption is powering ahead despite stronger inflation and the phasing-out of government income transfers



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.



 

Webcast – Navigating The COVID-19 Roller Coaster – (9min:19sec) – December 1, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses how the emergence of the Omicron variant impacts U.S. investment strategy



 

Commodities – Oil Prices To Normalize In 2022 – November 30, 2021
 · Commodities · 

It may appear counter-intuitive, given how much unused capacity persists among the world’s oil producers, but the world is currently experiencing an oil shortage.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: The End Of An Era – November 26, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. Equities – Setting The Tone For 2022 – November 24, 2021
 · Equities · 

The overall macro backdrop will become less favorable for the equity market in the year ahead.



 

Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.



 

Fixed Income – The U.S. Treasury Curve: Temporary Divergence Or Another Conundrum? – November 19, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Asset Allocation – The Fate Of The 60/40 Portfolio – November 18, 2021
Asset Allocation · 

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Economy – U.S. Inflation: The Transitory Story Is Losing Traction – November 16, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inflation is showing no signs of reversing its post-pandemic surge.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets



 

Economy – How Much Is Transitory? – November 11, 2021
Economics & Policy · 

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Webcast – The Fed Is Finally Rethinking Inflation – (6min:17sec) – November 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. monetary policy in the context of this year’s sharp rise in U.S. inflation that has challenged the Fed’s dovish bias.



 

U.S. Equities – Will Rising Bond Yields Pummel Tech Stocks? – November 9, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. technology stocks and growth equities more generally have been enormous beneficiaries of financial repression and the low interest rate environment that has prevailed since the Great Financial Crisis.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets



 

Policy – U.S. Inflation: The Fed Has Cornered Itself – November 4, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt: Assessing Risks After The Binge – November 3, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Public finances across the developed world have deteriorated markedly over the past 10-15 years, as government debt mushroomed to provide an offset for the Great Recession and then to offset the COVID-19 fallout.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period



 

MRB TradeBook Update – October 29, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Fixed Income – Fed Tapering: Receding Support For U.S. Treasurys – October 29, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. Equities – Semiconductor & Semi Equipment Stocks: Risks To The Cycle Are Piling Up – October 27, 2021
 · Equities · 

After a huge run in the second half of 2020, the relative performance of U.S. semiconductor stocks has leveled off this year.



 

U.S. Economy – Supply-Side Curbs – October 26, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. economy has faced stronger and more persistent supply-side constraints this year than anticipated.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).



 

Equities – Global Equities: More Bang For The Buck Than Perceived? – October 22, 2021
Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.



 

Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.



 

Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Household Durable Stocks: Taking Profits – October 18, 2021
 · Equities · 

For much of 2020 and the early part of this year, robust housing market conditions have driven the strong outperformance of the U.S. household durables sub-group.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.



 

Webcast – U.S. Labor Market: Look Past The Delta Bump – (8min:04sec) – October 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for the U.S. labor market for the coming year, in the context of the significantly weaker-than-expected pace of hiring in September.



 

Global Fixed Income – Risks Are Stacked Against Bonds – October 12, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

G7 government bonds are still priced in line with the secular stagnation narrative from the 2010s and are out-of-sync with current macro trends.



 

U.S. Economy – Indicators To Watch – October 8, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Softer hiring in September underscored the Delta wave’s toll on the U.S. economy, while supply constraints curbed activity across several sectors in Q3.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.



 

Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar: Short-Term Resilience, But… – October 8, 2021
Foreign Exchange · 

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U.S. Equity Sectors – U.S. Small-Cap Stocks: Another Leg Of Outperformance Ahead – October 8, 2021
Equities · 

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Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.



 

Fixed Income – How Are U.S. Treasurys Being Valued? – October 1, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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MRB TradeBook Update – October 1, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Proving Their Resilience – September 30, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. bank stocks are enjoying a banner year of outperformance.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.



 

Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.



 

U.S. – Fed Policy: A Step Closer To The Exit – September 23, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which saw the Fed update its policy rate guidance and lay the groundwork for announcing the tapering of its asset purchases in November.



 

Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy



 

U.S. – Economic Outlook: Speedbumps – September 21, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our U.S. economic outlook in the context of a delayed return to normalcy due to an ongoing wave of U.S. COVID-19 cases and extended supply-side frictions that have slowed economic momentum in Q3.



 

U.S. Equities – Metal & Mining Stocks: Buyer Beware – September 21, 2021
 · Equities · 

The relative performance of the U.S. metals & mining sub-group has weakened in recent months due to mounting concerns that the global economic recovery is losing steam.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Strategy For Resilient Global Growth – September 16, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights that our overarching macro view remains unchanged as we expect the global economy to surprise on the upside over the next year even as growth and trade moderate.



 

Webcast – U.S. Industrials: Heeding The Message From Sluggish Relative Earnings – (9min:31sec) – September 15, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for the U.S. industrial sector and machinery stocks, which are one of its key sub-groups.



 

Euro Area – Inflation: Set To Pop Like The U.S. – September 14, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

Our latest research on the euro area reinforces our non-consensus view that global inflation is heading higher on a multi-year horizon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – September 10, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Recovery Delayed, Not Lost – September 8, 2021
 · Equities · 

While growth momentum is moderating, economic conditions remain consistent with above-trend U.S. growth for the balance of this year and 2022.



 

Webcast – Transitioning From Maximum Growth And Policy Thrust – (9min:37sec) – September 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the shifting macro and policy backdrop and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It Will Get Tougher From Here – September 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Two important shifts in the macro climate over the next 6-12 months point to lower investment returns and more painful corrections, which will challenge current trends in capital markets.



 

Foreign Exchange – Swiss Franc & Yen: Defensive Non-USD Insurance – August 31, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Angst about a potential setback in reopening due to the COVID-19 Delta variant is causing investors to question the global economic outlook.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – August 27, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Economy – Worries About Fiscal Drag Are Misplaced – August 25, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Worries about a shift in the U.S. fiscal position from highly stimulative in 2020-2021 to a drag next year are misplaced.



 

U.S. Consumption: A Brief Setback, Or More Pernicious? – August 24, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Retail sales eased more than expected in July, adding to concerns that the economic recovery is losing steam, when it had been expected to benefit from the post-vaccination release of strong pent-up consumer demand.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative



 

MRB TradeBook Update – August 20, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Equity Sectors – U.S. Earnings: Margins Remain The Story – August 20, 2021
Equities · 

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Webinar – The Inflation Debate: Where The Consensus Has It Wrong – (78min:25sec) – August 18, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Strategist Phillip Colmar and U.S. Strategist Prajakta Bhide.



 

Theme – Disputing Misplaced Narratives (Part II) – August 17, 2021
 · Themes · 

Part I of this MRB Theme Report (published July 27) contrasted our view with some of the prevailing narratives related to the U.S. and global growth outlook.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade Ahead – August 13, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Sentiment remains upbeat in the major economies despite ongoing angst about the COVID-19 Delta variant.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – August 13, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Pharmaceutical Stocks: The Right Portfolio Prescription For A Less Healthy Equity Market – August 12, 2021
 · Equities · 

The spreading COVID-19 Delta variant, looming Fed bond tapering, and headline risks associated with corporate tax increases are potential sources of equity market volatility in the coming weeks and months.



 

U.S. Economy – CPI Inflation: Still Going Strong – August 11, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

CPI inflation rose more moderately in July than in prior months as an outsize surge in used car prices pared back, but the annual core inflation remained historically solid at 4.2%.



 

Webcast – U.S. Labor Market: Back To A Solid State – (7min:27sec) – August 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the renewed strength in the U.S. labor market recorded in July.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.



 

U.S. Equities – U.S. Growth Stocks: The Bar For Positive Surprises Is Very High – August 6, 2021
 · Equities · 

Peak earnings growth, easing bond yields, and anxieties about the economic outlook have put U.S. growth stocks back in favor.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.



 

Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
 · Themes · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.



 

Equities – Global Earnings: Catch Up Or Stick With Mo? – July 30, 2021
Equities · 

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Economic Note – Q2 GDP: Sounder Than It Seemed – Economic Note – July 29, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. real GDP grew a bit slower than expected in Q2 but this does not imply that the economy is on a weaker-than-expected cyclical trajectory.



 

Roundtable – Navigating An Expensive Market – (76min:51sec) – July 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Roundtable, MRB’s U.S. Equity Sector Strategist, Salvatore Ruscitti, discussed the outlook for the U.S. equity market and valuation risks and opportunities across a number of sectors.



 

U.S. Equities – The Reflation Trade Is Not Over – July 23, 2021
 · Equities · 

The spread of COVID-19 variants and peak growth momentum have fueled anxiety about the global economic outlook, boosted government bonds, and spurred a rotation out of cyclical stocks and into secular growth plays.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Peak Growth, Not Peak Earnings – July 23, 2021
Equities · 

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Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.



 

Webcast – U.S. Inflation: Drilling Through The Noise – (7min:49sec) – July 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide highlights the prospects for U.S. inflation, contextualizing inflation’s sustainable outlook with noisy incoming inflation data.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.



 

Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
 · Themes · 

This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Watch The Rising Underlying Trend – July 14, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With CPI inflation surprising sharply on the upside for the third consecutive month in June, the debate over whether the pickup in inflation could prove durable, as opposed to transitory (as the Fed believes), is likely to heat up further.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – July 9, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
 · Equities · 

The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – July 2, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.



 

Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.



 

U.S. Economy – Indicators To Watch -June 30, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With U.S. COVID-19 infections holding low and fiscal transfers providing continued support, the U.S. recovery gathered momentum in Q2, with real GDP likely growing by around 10% annualized.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – June 25, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Equity Sectors – U.S. Bank Stocks: Buy On Weakness – June 25, 2021
 · Equities · 

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Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.



 

Webcast – Fed Policy: A Step Back From “FAIT”? – (8min:21sec) – June 23, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the broad implications of the hawkish shift in the Fed’s policy stance at last week’s FOMC meeting.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.



 

Webinar – Understanding Digital Currencies – (75min:16sec) – June 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Absolute Return & Foreign Exchange Strategist, Santiago Espinosa, discussing the myths and “fundamentals” driving cryptocurrencies…



 

Policy – U.S. Fed Policy: Reality Bites The Dot Plot – June 17, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy, in the context of yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which saw participants pulling the expected policy rate liftoff forward amid an increased confidence in the economic outlook and upward risks to inflation.



 

U.S. Equities – Energy Stocks: Stay Long For The Beta Trade – June 17, 2021
 · Equities · 

Energy has been the top-performing U.S. sector this year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return · 

The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Key Gaps Are Closing/Widening – June 11, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While uber-dovish monetary policies will remain supportive of risk asset markets, the widening gaps between nominal GDP growth and core inflation versus policy rates are unsustainable.



 

Equities – The U.S. Will Bear The Burden Of A Global Minimum Tax – June 11, 2021
Equities · 

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Economy – U.S. Inflation: Focus On The Trend, Not The Noise – June 10, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core inflation was anticipated to pick up over Q2-Q3 as the economy reopened.



 

Webcast – The Drivers Of Inflation Provide A Warning – (9min:49sec) – June 9, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar Phillip Colmar examines the forces that will drive consumer price inflation over the course of this cycle.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.



 

Equities – Global Equities: What Does History Tell Us? – June 4, 2021
Equities · 

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Fixed Income – Real (Equilibrium) U.S. Interest Rates And Bond Valuation – June 4, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – An Inflation Problem Is Brewing – June 3, 2021
 · Themes · 

The Fed and other major central banks are determined to lag well behind any upturn in consumer price inflation, and fixed-income investors are reluctant to revise up their depressed longer-term views on economic growth and inflation.



 

U.S. Equities – The Value Resurgence Has Room To Run – June 1, 2021
 · Equities · 

The rotation from growth to value has been one of the outstanding features of the U.S. equity market rally over the past 7 months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – May 28, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Fixed Income – Are Treasury Yields Primed For Another Taper Tantrum-Like Spike? – May 27, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. Treasury yields have been fairly well contained since late-March as they consolidate their prior upleg.



 

Webcast – U.S. Housing: Another Supply-Side Problem – (8min:00sec) – May 26, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the latest round of data from the U.S. housing market which shows that a constrained supply of homes has started to eat into homebuying.



 

Foreign Exchange – Has The Crypto Fever Broken? – May 25, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While a bit controversial three months ago, we noted in March that the probability of a bust in cryptocurrencies was more likely than a continuation of the pandemic-induced exuberance (a view that panned out).



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: Heading For A Burnout? – May 21, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing market activity, which rose sharply in an otherwise bleak economic backdrop last year, may have gotten a little bit ahead of itself.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – May 21, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Webcast – Cyclical, Rather Than Secular Support For Commodities – (10min:17sec) – May 19, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for commodity prices based on current valuations and prospective demand conditions.



 

Commodities – Supercycle Narrative Is Off Base – May 18, 2021
 · Commodities · 

A new commodity supercycle is not underway, and investors should expect middling or worse commodity price performance in real terms on a multi-year horizon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – May 14, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Fixed Income – A Rude Awakening For The U.S. Treasury Market – May 14, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.



 

U.S. Equities – Consumer Finance Stocks: More Tailwinds To Play Out – May 12, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. consumer finance stocks have strongly outperformed year-to-date.



 

Economy – U.S. Labor Market: A Supply-Side Squeeze? – May 11, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

April’s surprisingly weak U.S. payroll report highlighted potential supply-side roadblocks as the economy moves past the COVID-19 crisis.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.



 

Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – As Good As It Gets – May 7, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The aggressive monetary and fiscal support of the past year helped bring forward and fortify the robust rebound in capital markets relative to underlying economic growth conditions.



 

Policy – U.S. Corporate, Personal And Capital Gains Taxes: It’s The Economy That Matters – May 4, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

President Biden’s proposed tax hikes, by themselves, are negative for risk assets, but the long-term relationship between income, capital gains and corporate tax rates and economic growth and equity market returns is mixed.



 

U.S. Equities – Stay Selectively Focused On Value – May 3, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. first-quarter earnings reports have been overwhelmingly positive.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.



 

Equities – A Weaker Dollar Will Eventually Favor Unhedged Non-U.S. Equities – April 30, 2021
Equities · 

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Roundtable – U.S. Economy: From A Crisis To Supercharged Growth – (70min:36sec) – April 29, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Roundtable, MRB’s U.S. Economy Strategist, Prajakta Bhide, discussed the outlook for the U.S. growth and inflation including the key upside and downside risks, and the likely course of monetary and fiscal policies.



 

Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.



 

Equities – An ISM® Warning Sign For Stocks – April 27, 2021
 · Equities · 

While the macro and policy backdrop remains very equity friendly, an inevitable moderation in the ISM manufacturing index in the coming months is likely to temper investor risk appetite.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.



 

Equity Sectors – U.S. Bank Stocks: Reserve Releases Are A Bridge To Better Fundamentals – April 23, 2021
Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.



 

Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue



 

Webcast – U.S. Economy: All Eyes On Inflation – (9min:25sec) – April 21, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. inflation and highlights the key price indicators to watch over the coming months.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Still Early To Spot The Upside, But… – April 20, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report takes a closer look at the recent performance of U.S. inflation indicators.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.



 

Fixed Income – Will Low G7 Ex-U.S. Yields Cap U.S. Treasury Yields? – April 16, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Our Differentiated Views On U.S. Consumer Discretionary And Industrial Stocks – (12min:06sec) – April 14, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the 6-12 month prospects for the U.S. consumer discretionary and industrial sectors.



 

U.S. Equities – Industrial Stocks: Will Earnings Deliver? – April 13, 2021
 · Equities · 

After lagging in December and January, U.S. industrial stocks have resumed outperforming in recent months.



 

Equities – Earnings Prospects Favor Further Global Value Outperformance – April 13, 2021
 · Equities · 

The rich valuations of growth stocks and the increasingly positive outlook for economic growth have recently helped boost investor interest in value stocks as a potential catch-up play.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – April 9, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Equities – Global Equity Sectors: Sector Earnings Shifts Underway – April 9, 2021
Equities · 

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Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.



 

U.S. Equities – Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Not As Leveraged To Re-Opening As You Might Think – March 31, 2021
 · Equities · 

The combination of historically huge fiscal transfers, a high savings rate, and healthy household balance sheets has left the U.S. consumer primed to spend once the economy fully re-opens.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – How Long Will U.S. Dollar Resilience Last? – March 30, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains mildly positive on the back of stronger relative growth (boosted by massive fiscal spending) and still oversold conditions (except versus the euro).



 

U.S. Economy – Indicators To Watch – March 26, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With U.S. COVID-19 vaccinations accelerating and new infections well below January’s peak, economic activity has picked up faster than expected in Q1.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.



 

Regional Equities – The Window For Regional Rotation Opens Wider – March 25, 2021
 · Equities · 

The massive U.S. fiscal stimulus will provide a major boost to the global economy and corporate earnings in markets and sectors highly geared to global trade.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.



 

U.S. Equities – Air Freight & Logistics Stocks: Climbing Back On Board – March 19, 2021
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Near-Term Speed Bumps In The Re-Opening Trade – March 19, 2021
Equities · 

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Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.



 

Global Fixed Income – Challenging The “Lower For Longer” Bond Narrative – March 16, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Hyper-accommodative monetary and fiscal policies combined with a significant upgrade in economic expectations have caused a rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields



 

U.S. Policy – Fed: Tantrum Management – March 15, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy, in the context of rapidly improving U.S. economic prospects, a potential multi-year shift in the fiscal policy backdrop, and the maiden implementation of the Fed’s new policy reaction function.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.



 

U.S. Equities – Hotel, Restaurant & Leisure Stocks: Priced For Normalcy – March 11, 2021
 · Equities · 

No group of stocks is more emblematic of the re-opening trade than the U.S. hotels, restaurants & leisure sub-group.



 

Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.



 

Foreign Exchange – Understanding Digital Currencies – March 9, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a substantial bull market on the back of highly accommodative monetary policies as well as increased speculative activity, partly attributable to the pandemic.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.



 

U.S. Equities – What The Bond Market Rout Means For U.S. Equities – March 2, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. equity prices have been volatile of late due to a rapid rise in bond yields as government fixed-income markets have begun to discount stronger-than-expected economic growth and higher inflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – February 26, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equity Sectors – Tech Stocks: Gathering Headwinds – February 26, 2021
Equities · 

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Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.



 

Asset Allocation – Which Inflation Hedges Are Appealing? – February 25, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

We have regularly noted that there is scope for medium term upside in the years ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing An Anchor – February 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in Treasury yields has spread abroad and has increased the odds of a correction in overbought risk asset markets.



 

Commodities – The Global Demand Recovery Alone Does Not Justify Recent Oil Price Gains – February 19, 2021
Commodities · 

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Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Economy – Will The U.S. Fiscal Stimulus Overheat The Economy? – February 16, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report discusses the impact of the forthcoming round of fiscal stimulus, including the potential upside for growth and inflation, the risk of the economy overheating, and its contribution to the macro-optimism priced into risk assets.



 

U.S. Equities – Small Caps: In Need Of A Pause That Refreshes – February 16, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. small-cap stocks have been on a tear since early-November when positive vaccine news began to trickle out.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.



 

Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Window For Appreciation…Or Merely Digesting Its Losses? – February 12, 2021
Foreign Exchange · 

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Fixed Income – U.S. Yield Curve Steepening To Spread To Gilt And Bund Markets – February 12, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.



 

U.S. Equities – Road & Rail Stocks: Are They Worth The Ride? – February 4, 2021
 · Equities · 

After rebounding from their late-March 2020 lows, the relative share prices of the road & rail sub-group have stalled in recent months, along with the broader transportation index.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Free Money Forever – January 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity market risks have recently eased on the fundamental side, as Treasury yields have calmed, but worsened on the technical side, as speculative froth has erupted. A pause in augmenting favored positions is still warranted.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – January 29, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Roundtable – U.S. Equity Sectors With Salvatore Ruscitti – January 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Roundtable, MRB’s U.S. Equity Strategist, Salvatore Ruscitti, discusses the outlook for the U.S. equity market and highlights our recommended sector positioning.



 

Global Equities – The Risks And Challenges Of Equity Market Concentration – January 28, 2021
 · Equities · 

The dominance of the U.S. equity market complicates regional and sectoral equity allocations and results in historically high concentration of portfolios benchmarked to the global index.



 

Policy – Another Year Of Hyper-Accommodative Monetary Policy – January 27, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the major developed market central banks, as well as supporting charts.



 

Economy – U.S.: Indicators To Watch – January 26, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. growth prospects have improved on the back of COVID-19 vaccine approvals and the increased odds for additional fiscal stimulus…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.



 

Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity Currencies: The Good News Is Discounted – January 22, 2021
Foreign Exchange · 

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U.S. Equities – U.S. Banks: Taking Stock Of The Earnings Drivers – January 21, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. bank stocks have soared in recent months, boosted by positive vaccine news, a steepening yield curve, and the Fed’s decision in December to reverse the ban on share buybacks for the largest banking institutions.



 

U.S. Equities – Long-Term Tailwinds Will Fade – January 20, 2021
 · Equities · 

Several of the tailwinds that powered equities during the last economic expansion and over the past four decades are set to fade in the years ahead.



 

Webcast – Why The Premium For Spot Delivery In An Oversupplied Oil Market?- (4min:52sec) – January 19, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani tackles the curious recent emergence of backwardation in the forward curves for crude oil.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent stall in U.S. employment trends underscores the need for rapid vaccinations to clear the path to a self-reinforcing global economic expansion.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: The Near-Term Upside Will Fade, But… – January 15, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Cyclical U.S. growth prospects have improved on the back of COVID-19 vaccine approvals and the increased odds for additional fiscal stimulus.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: Starting The Year With A Pop – January 15, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2020 Review – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports2020 provided a rollercoaster ride in many financial asset markets, as investors were forced… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.



 

Webcast – U.S. Economy: A Bridge To A Brighter Future – (6min:49sec) – January 5, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses MRB’s above-consensus U.S. economic outlook.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2021 – (83min:39sec) – December 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webinar, MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2021.



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – 2021 Outlook: From Rally To Rotation – December 23, 2020
 · Equities · 

The expected widespread rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has boosted the outlook for the global economy.



 

Economy – U.S. Economic Outlook: An Upside Surprise Awaits – December 22, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our U.S. economic outlook to account for recent progress on vaccinations against COVID-19, and the long-awaited forthcoming round of fiscal stimulus.



 

Regional Equities – Outlook 2021: Piecemeal Rotation – December 22, 2020
 · Equities · 

The improving economic outlook is positive for equites overall, although it is already well-discounted in share prices (most notably in the U.S.).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).



 

Equities – Global Equities: Excessive Long-Term Earnings Optimism – December 11, 2020
Equities · 

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Global Fixed Income – 2021 Outlook: Bond Supports Slowly Fade – December 10, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

We enter 2021 with a constructive pro-growth fixed-income positioning, albeit with measured return expectations.



 

Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.



 

Economy – U.S.: A Restocking Boost Next Year – December 9, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inventories experienced a deep drawdown in the first half of this year, amid COVID-19 distortions to demand as well as production/supply chain disruptions.



 

U.S. Equities – Revisiting Two Ideas – December 8, 2020
 · Equities · 

Our strategy this year has been to take a barbell approach to positioning U.S. equity portfolios, with selective bets on cyclicals and defensives/growth equities.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.



 

Economy – Will U.S. Consumption Soon Drop Off A Fiscal Cliff? – December 1, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

While recent progress on COVID-19 vaccines has lifted prospects for U.S. growth in the second half of 2021



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.



 

Equity Sectors – U.S. Industrials: Earnings Optimism Is Unlikely To Be Validated – November 27, 2020
Equities · 

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Equities – Sustained Global Trade Is The Key To Unlocking Euro Area Earnings – November 27, 2020
Equities · 

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Equities – Global Equities: The Great Rotation (Part 1) – November 27, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Is It Time For Financial Stocks? – (11min:28sec) – November 25, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global financial stocks following the release of the MRB Research Highlight:
“Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership” on November 18, 2020.



 

Policy – Global Monetary Policy Will Stay Very Accommodative – November 24, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The report is an annual study that compares the relative pressures facing the various central banks in the developed world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: The Bear Steepening Will Continue – November 20, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.



 

Global Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership – November 18, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Global financial stocks have enjoyed a solid bounce in recent weeks, breaking out of a trading range that had prevailed from June through October.



 

U.S. Equities – Election Post-Mortem: The Implications For U.S. Equity Sectors – November 17, 2020
 · Equities · 

The U.S. election will not be certified by the Electoral College until mid-December, but Joe Biden is almost certain to be the next president.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.



 

Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Messy Outlook Ahead – November 13, 2020
Foreign Exchange · 

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Webcast – U.S. Economy: The Impact Of The Election And A Potential Vaccine – (7min:43sec) – November 12, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outcome of the U.S. election and the latest medical breakthroughs against COVID-19, in the context of their implications for the U.S. economy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.



 

Economy – U.S.: Withstanding COVID-19’s Third Wave – November 6, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The third major U.S. COVID-19 outbreak has seen daily virus cases climbing to their highest level of the pandemic, with cases trending higher in most states.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.



 

Webcast – U.S. Election: What Does It Mean For Markets? (6min:39sec) – November 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outcome and implications for capital markets of the U.S. elections.



 

Election 2020 – How Will The U.S. Election Shape Financial Sector Regulation? – November 2, 2020
 · Equities · 

Financial sector policy proposals have largely been absent from this year’s election campaign as debates have mostly focused on issues such as the pandemic



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.



 

Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.



 

Webinar – How Will The U.S. Election Impact Equity Sectors? – (61min:33sec) – October 21, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The outcome of the U.S. election will play an important role in shaping policy in the coming years, thereby influencing the investment landscape.



 

Economy – U.S. Economic Outlook: Dealing With Uncertainty – October 22, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

After solid growth in Q3, the U.S. economy is at a crossroads; past fiscal stimulus has run out, even as COVID-19 cases are rising again, quelling hopes for a self-sustaining normalization of economic activity.



 

Theme – Secular Equity Bull Market: Is There More Upside? – October 21, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

Most investment strategy is focused on the cyclical trend in asset prices (i.e. the swings within a single economic or business cycle).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks



 

U.S. Election – What To Expect From A Biden Or Trump Victory – October 13, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The U.S. elections on November 3 could bring significant changes to fiscal policy and the economy in the next four years, with important implications for capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.



 

U.S. Equities – Trump Vs Biden: Where The Presidential Nominees Stand On Energy Policy – October 8, 2020
 · Equities · 

The upcoming election presents a stark contrast between Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s promise to overhaul the U.S. energy system to urgently deal with climate change



 

Webcast – U.S.: Tracking The U.S. Recovery – (8min:53sec) – October 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the U.S. economic outlook and highlights some key indicators for tracking the U.S. economic recovery.



 

Webcast – Addressing President Trump’s Health, The Election And Implications For The Markets – (10min:26sec) – October 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this special update, Peter Perkins addresses some key questions about the impact of President Trump’s illness on the election and capital markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.



 

Economy – U.S.: Not Like Other Cycles – October 1, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Standard U.S. business cycle indicators have been less insightful in the current pandemic-driven downturn and subsequent rebound.



 

Webcast – Equity Rotation: Stronger Global Growth Is The Necessary Condition – (10min:12sec) – September 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for performance across the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning in a global equity portfolio.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Reflationary Bridge And The Bond Market – September 25, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. and G7 government bond yields have traded in an extremely tight range of late as bond volatility has been crushed by global central banks through highly accommodative policies and strong forward guidance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.



 

Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
 · Equities · 

A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.



 

Foreign Exchange – The Multi-Year Case For The Euro – September 22, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The recent spike in euro area daily cases of COVID-19 has reignited economic pessimism, which has triggered a risk-off phase and bounce in the dollar, halting the rally in the euro.



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: Can The Pandemic-Induced Buying Persist? – September 18, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing demand has risen robustly amid a very weak labor market, elevated economic uncertainty and a still-ongoing pandemic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.



 

Policy – U.S. Economy: The Danger Of Premature Austerity – September 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The aftermath of the Great Recession highlights the dangers of enacting premature fiscal austerity.



 

Webcast – Growth Vs Value: An Unsustainable Divergence – (11min:26sec) – September 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. style performance and how to navigate the extreme divergence in the performance between growth and value stocks.



 

U.S. Equities – Will Gravity Finally Drag Down Growth Stocks? – September 14, 2020
 · Equities · 

The recent sell-off in the tech-heavy NASDAQ has rekindled optimism about a broadening of U.S. stock market leadership away from growth stocks and towards laggard value sectors.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.



 

Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.



 

Economy – U.S. Consumption: Is Recent Strength Sustainable? – September 2, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

High-frequency data indicate that that U.S. consumption picked up in August, defying expectations for a moderation, given that Congress had allowed a key fiscal policy measure providing unemployment compensation to lapse in July.



 

U.S. Equities – Trump Vs Biden: Who’s Better For U.S. Tech Stocks? – August 31, 2020
 · Equities · 

The occupant of the White House over the next four years will have an influence on the outlook for the tech industry



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.



 

Foreign Exchange – Is U.S. Dollar Weakness Nearly Over? – August 28, 2020
Foreign Exchange · 

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Fixed Income – Government Bonds Crosscurrents: Higher Inflation Vs Anchored Policy Rates – August 28, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Equities – Global Sector Composition Is Driving Relative Performance – August 28, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle: Did Policymakers Avoid A Final Flush? – August 20, 2020
 · Themes · 

MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks as it provides a starting point when building a multi-year roadmap, and helps investors look for major inflection points.



 

Economy – What’s Up With U.S. Inflation? – August 18, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The COVID-19 crisis triggered a sharp decline in U.S. core inflation, but a noteworthy upswing in July hints that this cycle’s inflation downshift may have ended.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care Stocks: What’s At Stake In The Election? – August 13, 2020
 · Equities · 

Health care is one of the most exposed sectors to the outcome of the November presidential election.



 

Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.



 

Webinar – U.S. 2020 Elections: A Lot Is At Stake For Markets – (72min:12sec) – August 12, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Elections always matter and this year’s will be no exception, as the outcome will have a major impact on the U.S. economy and capital markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.



 

Commodities – The Complicated Task Of Valuing Gold – August 7, 2020
Commodities · 

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Economy – U.S.: The Economic Indicators To Watch – August 5, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

With U.S. economic momentum chiefly predicated on the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, typical cyclical leading indicators remain less insightful than usual.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.



 

Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.



 

Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
 · Themes · 

Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Ignore The Message From Real Yields – July 24, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. Equities – Follow The Profit Cycle – July 23, 2020
 · Equities · 

The uncertainties unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic pose a significant challenge for investment strategy.



 

Webcast – U.S.: A Cautious Medium-Term Growth Outlook – (6min:43sec) – July 21, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the implications of the resurgent COVID-19 epidemic on the U.S. economic outlook.



 

Economy – U.S.: The Fallout From The Second Wave – July 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investors are overly optimistic about the potential economic fallout of resurgent COVID-19 epidemic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.



 

Foreign Exchange – Stick With The MRB Optimal FX Barbell Basket – July 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange · 

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Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.



 

Economy – U.S. Credit Risks And The Economy – July 14, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Strong policy support has dramatically reduced the risk of prolonged U.S. economic weakness, but there are still pockets of vulnerability.



 

Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.



 

U.S. Equities – Industrial Stocks: Tempering Our Negativity – July 9, 2020
 · Equities · 

U.S. industrial stocks have mostly lagged since late 2016, although they have recently bounced from their relative lows.



 

Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.



 

Webcast – Taking A Closer Look At U.S. Money Growth – (7min:35sec) – July 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide takes a closer look at this year’s surge in U.S. money supply growth which has led to substantial speculation surrounding its implications for inflation and financial markets.



 

Policy – U.S. Money Supply Has Skyrocketed; Does It Matter? – June 30, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. money supply growth has climbed to an historically unprecedented level this year, led by the Fed’s large-scale policy intervention since March.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.



 

Commodities – Most Of The Oil Price Recovery Is In The Past, For Now – June 26, 2020
Commodities · 

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Fixed Income – Next Fed Policy Support: Yield Curve Control – June 26, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Equities – U.S. Equities: Revenues Will Tell The Story – June 26, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Catalyst For A Regional Equity Rotation Is Not Yet In View – (9min:51sec) – June 24, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It All Comes Down To Employment And Job Security – June 19, 2020
 · Uncategorized · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A correction or churning phase for equities is probable in the near term, given the sharp rebound in prices this spring and likelihood that corporate profits will not be able to return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Bonds Are Still Appealing – June 19, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Regional Equities – Greater Earnings Certainty Needed For A Major Rotation – June 18, 2020
 · Equities · 

There are important crosscurrents in translating the macro landscape into regional equity positioning.



 

Webcast – Will Earnings Validate The Rally? – (9min:50sec) – June 17, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for the U.S. equity market and the timeline for a normalization of earnings.



 

U.S. Equities – Valuations Demand A V-Shaped Recovery In Earnings – June 16, 2020
 · Equities · 

The huge rally in the equity market from the late-March lows has driven a wide gap between share prices and underlying fundamentals.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.



 

TradeBook Update – June 12, 2020
Absolute Return · 

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Economy – U.S.: Was The Jump In May Employment Illusory? – June 11, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Last week’s much stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll report for May triggered questions about potential distortions or even errors in the employment data.



 

Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.



 

Policy – U.S.: What’s Next For The Fed? – June 3, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

U.S. financial conditions have improved over the past several weeks, and economic activity is picking up following the gradual re-opening of many states. 



 

Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity Currencies Will Need To Get Cheaper – June 3, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights why the recent rally in developed commodity-based currencies should prove temporary as underlying fundamentals in these economies remain weak.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Broadening Equity Rally, For Now – May 29, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The equity rally has spread beyond U.S. large-caps into lagging bourses and sectors.



 

Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.



 

Webcast – Growth Vs Value: A Little Bit Of Both – (10min:18sec) – May 28, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti weighs in on the growth vs value debate and discusses how investors should position U.S. equity portfolios in the context of the style cycle.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.



 

Fixed Income – Are Negative Interest Rates Set To Become More Widespread? – May 22, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: No Longer A Safe Haven – May 21, 2020
 · Equities · 

The clouds hanging over the U.S. real estate sector have darkened since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.



 

COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.



 

Economy – Inflation Risk: Why The 1970s Is The Wrong Playbook – May 20, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The huge run-up in government debt accompanied by massive central bank bond purchases in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is rekindling fears in some circles of a return to the high inflation era last witnessed in the 1970s and early-1980s.



 

U.S. – Labor Market: Examining The Damage, And What’s Next – May 19, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Research Reports · 

Dislocations to economic activity caused by COVID-19 have caused an unprecedented deterioration in the U.S. labor market, with standard measures like the unemployment rate understating the true extent of the damage.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.



 

Fixed Income – Will Massive Stimulus Lead To An Inflationary Environment? – May 15, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Equities – Looks Can Be Deceiving – May 15, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
 · Themes · 

This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.



 

U.S. Equities – Navigating The Growth Vs Value Style Imbalance – May 7, 2020
 · Equities · 

Growth stocks have continued to exert market leadership this year amid the COVID pandemic.



 

Webcast – COVID-19 Across U.S. States: Reopening Too Soon? – (7min:17sec) – May 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The rate of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. has declined, and as unemployment continues to climb, U.S. states have faced mounting pressure to roll back distancing orders.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.



 

U.S. – COVID-19: Tracking The Progression Across The U.S. – April 30, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report provides an update on the progression of COVID-19 across all U.S. states.



 

U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: An Overdue Reality Check – April 27, 2020
 · Equities · 

U.S. technology stocks have been relatively resilient amid the COVID-19 health crisis and economic shutdown.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.



 

Equities – Across-The-Board U.S. Sector Outperformance – April 24, 2020
Equities · 

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Theme – The Great Halt Of 2020 – April 23, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report compares the current economic fallout with the previous and concludes that another Great Recession is very unlikely.



 

Webcast – U.S. Big Business Is Too Big To Fail – (10min:28sec) – April 22, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins compares the small and large business sectors and their importance to the U.S. economic outlook and need for policy support.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Fed Has A Backstop For Everything – April 21, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

In response to the sharp COVID-19 economic fallout, the Fed has adopted an unprecedented set of stimulus measures with clear positive implications for fixed-income assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.



 

Commodities – Trump’s Oil Deal Is A Victory For China And Oil Consumers – April 17, 2020
Commodities · 

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U.S. Economy – The Business Of America Is Big Business – April 16, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Large companies dominate the U.S. economy in terms of employment, wages & salaries, receipts, value added, assets and investment.



 

Webcast – U.S. Economy: Fiscal Policy Support – (8min:44sec) – April 15, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses some U.S. fiscal policy measures that will play a key role in limiting the long-lasting structural economic damage due to the COVID-19 pandemic.



 

U.S. Equities – A COVID-19 Stress Test For U.S. Bank Stocks – April 14, 2020
 · Equities · 

The economic disruptions from the COVID-19 outbreak will weigh heavily on U.S. bank earnings this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.



 

Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.



 

U.S. Economy – Fiscal Policy To Cushion The Blow – April 7, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. economy is in the midst of an abrupt and severe contraction. At the same time, policymakers have rapidly provided broad monetary and fiscal policy support.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.



 

Equities – A Century Of Bear Bottoms – April 2, 2020
 · Equities · Themes · 

Every equity bear market has unique attributes, including the root cause of the earnings downturn and the required policy response.



 

U.S. Equities – The Virus Makes The Timeline – March 31, 2020
 · Equities · 

U.S. stock prices have recently bounced from their lows. To a large degree, the performance of the equity market going forward will be a function of sentiment towards the 2021 earnings outlook



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.



 

Absolute Return – Taking Profits And Tactical Changes – March 27, 2020
Absolute Return · 

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Regional Equities – The Best Offense Is A Good Defense – March 26, 2020
 · Equities · 

The uncertainty associated with COVID-19 and the countermeasures being taken to ameliorate it justify a conservative regional equity allocation in the near term.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Impact Of COVID-19 On FX Strategy – March 26, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Given the uncertainty associated with the global health crisis, it is helpful to consider scenario analysis for FX strategy over the next 6-12 months.



 

COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.



 

U.S. – The Economic Indicators To Watch – March 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Typical U.S. leading economic indicators are less insightful in the context of the rapid collapse in economic activity brought on by the COVID-19 epidemic.



 

U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Earnings: Assessing The Impact Of COVID-19 – March 23, 2020
 · Equities · 

Assessing equity valuations during these uncertain times is challenging given the lack of earnings visibility.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Bonds: Assessing The Fallout – March 20, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – Lessons From Previous Equity Bear Markets – March 19, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The speed of the current selloff in equities, credit and oil has been remarkable, with a massive wave of selling pressure as investors rushed for the exits or to buy portfolio insurance.



 

Webcast – Calculated Assessments Amidst Heightened Uncertainty – (13min:20sec) – March 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Capital markets are struggling against the backdrop of an escalating COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain economic fallout from countermeasures to contain it.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.



 

Commodities – Saudi Oil Price War: Starts With A Bang, But Will End With A Whimper – March 13, 2020
Commodities · 

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Fixed Income – G7 Government Bonds: Very Expensive Portfolio Insurance – March 13, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Equities – History Says Further Near-Term Risk, Longer-Term Reward – March 13, 2020
Equities · 

http://www.mrbpartners.com/build-mrbp/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Equities_History-Says-Further-Near-Term-Risk-Longer-Term-Reward-March-13-2020.pdf



 

Absolute Return – Profiting From A Defensive Stance – March 13, 2020
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We shifted the aggregate MRB TradeBook from a modest pro-growth to a defensive… Continue



 

Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.



 

Webcast – Saudi Oil Price War: Starts With A Bang, But Will End With A Whimper – (8min:45sec) – March 11, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for the oil market in the wake of the Saudi/Russian oil price war and demand declines associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.



 

Webcast – COVID-19 And Investment Strategy (10min:09sec) – March 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest take on COVID-19 and how it will impact investment strategy.



 

Policy – Fed Policy: The Costs And Benefits Of Hitting The Panic Button – March 3, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The turmoil in the financial markets over the past week, following signs of the broadening spread of the COVID-19 epidemic outside China, raised investors’ expectations for a swift, accommodative Fed policy response.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.



 

Global – COVID-19 Epidemic Update – February 28, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

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U.S. Equity Sectors – Navigating The Sell-Off – February 28, 2020
Equities · 

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Politics – U.S. 2020 Election Update – February 28, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

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Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (19min:00sec) – February 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

. In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month, including the virus.



 

U.S. – Inflation: Mind The (Closing) CPI/PCE Gap – February 21, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Although U.S. core CPI inflation ticked up on an annual basis last year, investors assigned greater importance to the fact that the core PCE inflation rate, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge, decelerated below the Fed’s 2% goal.



 

Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: Positively Infected – February 21, 2020
Foreign Exchange · 

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Webcast – Buybacks Are An Important Factor In The U.S. ROE Advantage (11min:53sec) – February 19, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins takes a close look at return on equity in the major markets over the past decade and highlights some important drivers and considerations for valuations.



 

U.S. – Manufacturing: Limited Upside In The Near Term – February 14, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The ISM manufacturing index’s rise above 50 last month was seen as a positive sign for an eventual recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity, which downshifted meaningfully last year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.



 

TradeBook Update – Booking Profits – February 14, 2020
Absolute Return · 

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Foreign Exchange – Swedish Krona: Cheap, But Stay Selective – February 14, 2020
Foreign Exchange · 

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Equities – Global Return On Equity: Looks Can Be Deceiving – February 13, 2020
 · Equities · 

The U.S.’ 5% ROE advantage versus the global ex-U.S. benchmark certainly helps underpin the premium valuation on U.S. stocks, which in the case of the price-to-book ratio exceeds 100%.



 

U.S. Equities – Will The Equity Market Catch The Flu? – February 12, 2020
 · Equities · 

After an initial modest drawdown, the U.S. equity market has more than recouped all its earlier losses from coronavirus fears.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part V): Growth Stocks – February 11, 2020
 · Equities · Themes · 

This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias, and focuses on growth stocks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: The Goldilocks Backdrop Will Not Last – February 7, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Policy – Little Pressure On Monetary Policy This Year – February 6, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The challenge heading forward for policymakers will be for those markets facing housing and credit excesses that ultimately will limit, if not prevent, any monetary tightening.



 

Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.



 

Webcast – U.S. Housing: A Firmer Foundation For Growth (7min:28sec) – January 29, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. housing.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue



 

U.S. – Can Housing Lengthen The U.S. Expansion? – January 28, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investors should play close attention to the ongoing pickup in U.S. housing activity, given that the sector’s performance has historically been the cornerstone of the U.S. business cycle.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Handicaps For Small-Cap Stocks – January 24, 2020
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: No Room For Disappointment – January 22, 2020
 · Equities · 

U.S. IT stocks have been on a tear in the past year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part IV): Regional Housing & Related Equities – January 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue



 

Webcast – U.S. Inflation: Alive And Well, If You Scratch The Surface (9min:40sec) – January 15, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the prospects for U.S. inflation.



 

U.S. Economy – Inflation: The Uptrend Is In The Details – January 13, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The market view that U.S. core PCE inflation will remain below 2% indefinitely is misplaced.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Bust, No Boom – January 10, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).



 

U.S. Equities – Looking Back At 2019 and Ahead To 2020 – January 9, 2020
 · Equities · 

The U.S. equity market has started the year on a choppy note, with geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran whipsawing stocks prices in recent days.



 

Webcast – Geopolitically-Driven Digestion Phase (8min:20sec) – January 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for capital markets in 2020, including the implications of the latest geopolitical crisis on investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.



 

Webcast – U.S. Equity Market Outlook: How To Position In 2020 (19min:04sec) – January 3, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the 2020 outlook for the U.S. equity market and how to position portfolios for the year ahead.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Great Year And A Great Decade: Can It Continue? – December 20, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to recommend a mildly pro-growth investment stance across most asset classes.



 

Regional Equities – 2020 Outlook: Muted Earnings Upside – December 19, 2019
 · Equities · 

An anticipated moderate rebound in global manufacturing and trade activity will not be enough for global ex-U.S. relative earnings to reverse the underlying downtrend versus the U.S. that has prevailed for most of this expansion.



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – 2020 Outlook: Earnings Growth Will Still Be King – December 18, 2019
 · Equities · 

Today’s report discusses how to position U.S. equity portfolios for the year ahead.



 

Webcast – FX Strategy For 2020 (13min:31sec) – December 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this today’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the outlook for FX strategy in 2020.



 

Global Fixed Income – 2020 Outlook – December 17, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

Today’s report outlines our recommended fixed-income positioning for 2020.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Upbeat Global Hiring Plans: The Business Cycle Rolls On – December 13, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).



 

Policy – Fed: Another U-Turn Down The Road? – December 12, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at yesterday’s meeting, emphasizing that additional “insurance” easing is now unlikely, and that the policy rate will remain near its current accommodative level over the foreseeable future.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Positioning For 2020 – December 12, 2019
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report outlines our FX positioning in 2020. This year the U.S. dollar traded marginally higher on the back of weaker external growth and ongoing uncertainty associated with trade and politics.



 

Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part III): Commodities & Global Luxury – December 10, 2019
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias and focuses on… Continue



 

U.S. – Labor Market: Still Some Life In It – December 9, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. hiring continues to show remarkable momentum, its recent strength contrasting with the continued slowdown in industrial activity and still-sour manufacturing sentiment.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Slow And Modest Upturn Lies Ahead – December 6, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

While global growth should gradually firm next year, it will be insufficient to warrant a decisive risk-on investment posture.



 

Fixed Income – The U.S. Credit Cycle: Late Stages, But Not Over – December 6, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. Equities – Retailing Stocks: A Tale Of Winners And Losers – December 4, 2019
 · Equities · 

Translating the positive backdrop for consumer spending into an investment stance on retailing sub-groups remains very challenging given the dichotomy between the winners and losers in the industry.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part II): Yield Plays – December 3, 2019
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Consolidation Before More Upside? – November 29, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The resilience of the consumer sector bodes well for the U.S. economic outlook.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Debt: Cracks Appear But Tight Spreads Should Persist – November 29, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Dividends For The Long Run (8min:24sec) – November 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins examines global dividends and their potential contribution to equity returns in the years ahead.



 

Equities – The Lure Of Dividends – November 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

Current dividend yields on equities are compelling compared with the extraordinarily low yields available on long-term government bonds.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Validation – November 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There are tentative signs of a trough in manufacturing activity, but follow-through will be critical to sustain the recent breakout in equities and the global stock/bond ratio.



 

Fixed Income – G7 Government Bond Yields: Countertrend Bounce Or Further Upside? – November 22, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. – Economic Sentiment: What’s The Mood? – November 21, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report highlights key recent trends in sentiment/confidence of U.S. households and businesses.



 

Webcast – Divorcing The Fed’s Balance Sheet From Monetary Policy (8min:20sec) – November 20, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses why the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet expansion does not constitute another round of QE, as some analysts have mistakenly claimed.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.



 

U.S. Equities – Stocks Go All-In On A Trade Deal – November 18, 2019
 · Equities · 

U.S. equity prices have made new highs in the past month, with reduced recession fears and optimism about an easing of U.S./China trade tensions driving the advance



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – FOMO Versus A Challenging Earnings Outlook – November 15, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity should gradually improve in the coming year, but much strongergrowth is highly unlikely.



 

Fixed Income – The U.S. Yield Curve: A False Alarm – November 15, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. Equity Sectors – Why A U.S. Value Stock Resurgence Is Unlikely – November 15, 2019
Equities · 

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Policy – The Fed Buys More Treasurys, But QE Is Still Over – November 13, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The unwelcomed surge in overnight repo rates in late September that led the Fed to begin purchasing Treasury bills last month has been misinterpreted by some analysts as an effective resumption of QE.



 

Webcast – Taking The Pulse Of Monetary Policy (13min:26sec) – November 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar discuss the highlights from MRB’s latest in-depth research on pressures facing various central banks in the developed world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Worries Recede Further – November 8, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stability in manufacturing PMI surveys and the recent easing in trade tensions have spurred higher equity prices and bond yields.



 

Equities – Global Equities: In The End, It Is All About Earnings – November 8, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Cyclical Vs Defensive Tech: Where We Stand – November 7, 2019
 · Equities · 

In recent months, market participants have rotated into the more cyclical components of the technology sector such as semiconductors and hardware equipment manufacturers from the more defensive software sub-group.



 

Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – No Recession, But Not Much Growth Ahead – November 1, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

We expect the economic expansion to continue, but there is little basis for concluding a robust rebound in activity and profits looms over the next year that would justify a decidedly pro-growth investment posture.



 

Policy – Gauging Relative Monetary Policy Pressures: It’s All About The Fed – October 31, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Monetary policy pressures in the developed world have diminished substantially this year due to trade-related uncertainty and global manufacturing weakness.



 

Webcast – U.S. Bank Stocks On The Move (8min:51sec) – October 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti assesses the outlook for U.S. bank stocks. Key highlights include:



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks Awaken From Their Slumber – October 29, 2019
 · Equities · 

U.S. bank stocks have rebounded of late, with share prices breaking out of their recent range in absolute terms and relative performance reversing the downtrend in place since early-2018.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Turn In Manufacturing – October 25, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Non-U.S. equities have perked up, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity will keep a lid on equity prices and bond yields.



 

Fixed Income – U.K. Gilts: Inflation Expectations Should Converge Lower With The U.S. – October 25, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Fixed Income – The Fed Will Deliver A Reluctant Rate Cut Next Week – October 25, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.



 

Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.



 

U.S. – Checking In On The Consumer – October 23, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. consumption, which comprises the bulk of aggregate domestic demand, has been solid on a trend basis this year, despite elevated policy uncertainty and global headwinds that have caused business investment and manufacturing activity to slow. 



 

Webcast – Still Scope For Another Upturn In The Global Earnings Cycle (11min:28sec) – October 23, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the earnings cycle across major markets, its key drivers, and the implications for equity prices.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Relief, But Risks Remain – October 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global trade and manufacturing indicators are still generally weak, and the protectionist backdrop will continue to hold back the global economy.



 

U.S. Economy – Business Cycle Crosscurrents – October 17, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Persistently elevated policy uncertainty and weak ex-U.S. growth are dampening U.S. economic activity.



 

U.S. Equities – A Reality Check For 2020 U.S. Earnings – October 16, 2019
 · Equities · 

Third-quarter earnings season kicks off in earnest this week. Our report offers a preview of what to expect and what trends to watch.



 

Global Equities – An Old, But Not Fully Mature Earnings Cycle – October 15, 2019
 · Asset Class Reports · Equities · 

The global earnings upcycle is advanced, but should continue in the sluggish growth environment we anticipate in the year ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bending, But Not Yet Breaking – October 11, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Trade policies and heightened domestic economic tensions continue to erode global economic sentiment, although not yet by enough to undermine the expansion.



 

Foreign Exchange – The Expensive U.S. Dollar Makes Selectivity Critical – October 11, 2019
Foreign Exchange · 

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Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Yields Reflect Multiple Distortions – October 11, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Fixed Income – U.S. High-Yield Corporate Debt: Some Cracks Appearing, But Should Ultimately Calm – October 11, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Equity Sectors – U.S. Health Care Stocks: Un-Warren-ted Panic – October 11, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.



 

U.S. – Elections 2020: Impeachment And The Markets – October 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

It is unclear how the House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry into President Trump will evolve, although it is ramping up rapidly.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.



 

U.S. Equities – Telecom Stocks: Cheap Valuations, But Relative Earnings Lack An Impending Catalyst – October 4, 2019
 · Equities · 

U.S. telecom stocks have halted their long-running relative decline in the past year as falling bond yields have increased the allure of the sub-group’s relatively high dividend yield.



 

U.S. – Housing Returns To Boosting Growth – October 1, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing demand has improved meaningfully on a year-over-year basis following a sharp decline in U.S. mortgage rates since the beginning of 2019.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Ugly Politics Carpets (So Far) Solid Floorboards – September 27, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The drip/drip of negative political developments risks undermining economic sentiment.



 

U.S. Equities – Don’t Chase The Value Rotation – September 27, 2019
 · Equities · 

Value stocks have recently rebounded, with the MSCI USA Value Index outperforming its growth counterpart by nearly 300 bps month-to-date.



 

Regional Equities – Hewing Close To Home – September 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

Only selective deviations from regional benchmark weightings have a favorable risk-reward profile in a global equity portfolio given the policy and economic backdrop.



 

Webcast – The Fed Pauses Here, For Now (6min:35sec) – September 25, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide addresses the prospects for Fed policy over the coming year, in the context of our modestly positive outlook for growth and our expectation for the recent pickup in core inflation to sustain over the coming months.



 

Global Fixed Income – G7 Bonds: Priced For A Bleak Outlook – September 24, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

Our view has been that the race to negative bond yields pushed pricing too far this summer.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Absorbing Another Body Blow – September 20, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Better-than-expected U.S. growth and an upward creep in core inflation herald a pause in Fed easing.



 

Equity Sectors – Green Shoots Of A Value Resurgence, Or Just Another Oversold Bounce? – September 20, 2019
Equities · 

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Equities – Global Equities: Key Benchmarks To Monitor – September 20, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. – Fed Policy: A Pause Looms – September 19, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed delivered another 25 bps “insurance” policy rate cut at yesterday’s meeting.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Highly Political World – September 19, 2019
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Increased political uncertainty and trade threats have fueled financial market volatility, benefiting safe-haven currencies including the U.S. dollar. However, further upside for the dollar should prove limited.



 

Webcast – Oil Moves Back To Center Stage (11min:48sec) – September 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Makhjavani and Peter Perkins discuss key drivers of global capital markets including the recent disruption to Saudi production, as well as the recent sharp rise in bond yields.



 

U.S. Equities – Tech Capex: Up In The Clouds? – September 17, 2019
 · Equities · 

The tech sector has drawn increased scrutiny of late given the poorly performing IPOs of a few unicorn companies, which have exposed the unprofitable business models of these firms.



 

U.S. – CPI: It Pays To Ignore Distortions – September 16, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core CPI reached its highest annual rate for the expansion in August, marking a noteworthy reversal from a weaker trend in Q1.



 

Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Business Cycle Remains Resilient – September 13, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global hiring plans have stayed solid despite the downturn in manufacturing and trade, and service sector PMI surveys remain positive.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook



 

U.S. – The Services-Manufacturing Divergence Persists – September 10, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investors’ pessimism in the U.S. business cycle was amplified last week, as the widely-followed ISM manufacturing PMI index fell below its contraction threshold of 50.



 

Webcast – U.S. & Euro Area Bonds: Is Japan The Right Roadmap? (7min:23sec) – September 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Frank Petrocca discuss the collapse in government bond yields.



 

Theme – The Japanification Of The U.S. And Euro Area: An Economic Reality Check – September 3, 2019
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

A decade after the Great Financial Crisis erupted policy rates remain near historic lows and a record percentage of global bond markets have negative yields.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Third Time Lucky, Or The End Of The Cycle? – August 30, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investors should refrain from aggressive positioning on the basis of expected trade talk outcomes given the difficulty of forecasting President Trump/China’s next moves.



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – Stuck In “No Man’s Land” – August 29, 2019
 · Equities · 

The seesawing in trade tensions between the U.S. and China has kept equities on a rollercoaster ride in recent months.



 

U.S. – Data Revisions: Don’t Look Back In Despair – August 29, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Amid elevated fears of an impending U.S. recession, many analysts have flagged the recent downward revisions to estimates of employment and corporate profits as bearish signals.



 

Webcast – Policy Whipsaws (10min:38sec) – August 28, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins and Prajakta Bhide discuss the implications of the recent trade spat between the U.S. and China, and examine the risk of recession in the U.S.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Is Trump Blinking? – August 23, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

President Trump appears to have heard the warning that his trade policy risks undermining his re-election prospects.



 

U.S. – Economy: Don’t Rule In A Recession Yet! – August 22, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Pessimism regarding U.S. economic prospects has been mounting since late last year, amid a deepening global manufacturing downturn, and persistently elevated uncertainty surrounding U.S.



 

Webcast – Bonds: The Non-Yielding Faith In Governments (8min:24sec) – August 21, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the collapse in government bond yields and provided perspective on how extreme current bond market pricing has become.



 

U.S. Equities – What Health Care Stocks Have That Other Defensive Sectors Lack – August 20, 2019
 · Equities · 

Concerns about disruptive policy changes and headline risk in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election have pressured the relative performance of the health care sector this year



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fearing Fear – August 16, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Rising protectionism remains the main global economic threat.



 

Commodities – Gold Prices: Supported By Dovish Policy – August 16, 2019
Commodities · 

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Equities – Global Equities: The Trouble With Small Caps – August 16, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – August Storms (9min:14sec) – August 14, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses recent trade and geopolitical events and their implications for the U.S. equity market outlook and portfolio strategy.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Race To Negative Bond Yields – August 13, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

Global bond yields have melted this year in response to an extreme dovish shift by the major central banks and a ratcheting up of trade tensions.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.



 

Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Collateral Damage From The Trade War – August 9, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. – Labor Market: Are The Good Times Ending? – August 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Research Reports · 

Employment growth generally lags economic activity, which implies that the employment gain in July, while fairly solid, says little about the economy’s prospects.



 

U.S. Equities – At The Edge Of A Cliff? – August 8, 2019
 · Equities · 

Equities have sold off sharply in the past week as the U.S. and China have ratcheted up pressure on each other in their deepening trade dispute.



 

Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).



 

U.S. – Fed Policy: One For The Global Economy – August 1, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

As widely anticipated, the Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 bps at yesterday’s meeting, aiming to insure the U.S. economy against negative global developments.



 

U.S. Equities – Industrials: Global Dark Clouds Take Their Toll – August 1, 2019
 · Equities · 

Recent earnings reports from U.S. industrial companies have indicated that trade uncertainties and sluggish global economic growth have begun to more meaningfully weigh on the sector’s underlying fundamentals.



 

U.S. Economy – What Was Noteworthy About Q2 GDP? – July 30, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investors remain on high alert for signs that the U.S. economic expansion is coming to an end, while the Fed is on the brink of easing the policy rate to provide some growth insurance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still Lacking A Catalyst – July 26, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global manufacturing weakness is persisting, which is dampening economic sentiment and investor risk-taking.



 

Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.



 

Webcast – How Would Firmer Inflation Impact Fed Policy? (8min:21sec) – July 24, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide addresses recent U.S. economic data in the context of Fed policy, focusing on the scope for firmer core inflation meaningfully altering Fed policy over the coming year.



 

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Sniffing The Bottom Of The Cycle – July 23, 2019
 · Equities · 

The outlook for U.S. semiconductor and semi-equipment stocks remains a hotly debated topic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It May Be Unnecessary, But… – July 19, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors remain wary of taking risk outside of U.S. large-cap stocks, implying that there is still considerable sidelined cash to buy equities – but only if economic confidence improves.



 

Foreign Exchange – The U.K. Pound Will Stay Weak Versus The Euro – July 19, 2019
Foreign Exchange · 

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Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Growing Inflation Risks – July 19, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Equities – U.S.: Forget Margins, Focus On Revenue – July 19, 2019
Equities · 

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Policy – U.S. Politics 2020: Democratic Disruptors Or Stabilizers? – July 18, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Despite President Trump’s low approval ratings, the Democrats face an uphill battle in winning the presidential election in 2020 given the healthy economy and the power of incumbency.



 

Webcast – Shiller P/E Ratio: Focus On The Earnings (8min:34sec) – July 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins takes another look at the Shiller P/E ratio to assess the implications for U.S. stocks.



 

U.S. – Core Inflation Has Picked Up, But Does It Matter? – July 16, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core CPI/PCE inflation picked up in Q2, supporting the view that its weakness earlier this year was driven by idiosyncratic and likely transitory factors.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s A Grind – July 12, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed is committed to a rate cut later this month, and will stay dovish even after economic news improves.



 

U.S. Equities – A Tough Spot For The Equity Market – July 12, 2019
 · Equities · 

There is scope for U.S. equities to advance in the year ahead, assuming the economic expansion continues.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: Overextended Conditions Warn Of An Imminent Bounce – July 12, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Equities – U.S. Equities: The Real Issue With The Shiller P/E Ratio – July 12, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. – Housing: A Window Of Opportunity – July 10, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

In this report, we analyze U.S. housing indicators, which have been bottoming out this year following a reversal of last year’s rise in mortgage rates.



 

Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.



 

Commodities – What To Make Of The Breakout In Gold Prices? – July 9, 2019
Commodities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.



 

U.S. Economy – What Are U.S. Economic Indicators Signaling? – July 3, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Trade tensions have taken a modest toll on U.S. business and consumer confidence recently, but consumer spending and housing data were relatively solid.



 

Webcast – Snack On EM Debt While Watching The U.S./China Slugfest (6min:49sec) – July 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani discussing the implications of the G20 summit for various EM assets.



 

Regional Equities – Limited Late-Cycle Beta Warranted – June 28, 2019
 · Equities · 

The health of the global economic expansion will be the key driver of relative equity market performance in the year ahead, rather than valuations or monetary policy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Fixed-Income Performance During Past Mid/Late Cycle Fed Rate Cuts – June 28, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Making Selective Non-Dollar Bets – June 25, 2019
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The global economy and investor expectations have been caught between the clash in policy forces of heightened trade tensions and further monetary reflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Binary Outcomes – June 21, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed has now shifted full-circle to the dovish side. However, the forward markets are too aggressive in terms of expected rate cuts this year, unless economic activity deteriorates meaningfully, which we do not expect.



 

Geopolitics – The U.S. Versus Iran: Who Wants What? – June 21, 2019
Economics & Policy · 

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Fixed Income – Coordinated G3 Policy Easing? – June 21, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Policy – U.S. Fed Policy: Signaling A Rate Cut, In No Uncertain Terms – June 20, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed emphatically delivered on the financial markets’ expectation for a significant dovish shift in monetary policy guidance at yesterday’s FOMC meeting. In doing so, the Fed laid the groundwork for a policy rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting



 

Equities – Global Equities: Calibrating Downside And Upside Risk – June 20, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our base-case scenario is that the global economic expansion will persist, with growth around potential, and manufacturing and trade activity firming modestly over the next 6-12 months.



 

Webcast – Growth Vs Value: An Update (9min:31sec) – June 19, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. style performance.



 

U.S. – Manufacturing: Another Mid-Cycle Slowdown, Or Worse? – June 18, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. manufacturing production growth has is weak, and manufacturers’ sentiment has tempered significantly this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Crosscurrents Continue – June 14, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equity and credit markets remain caught between mounting trade tensions, and supportive monetary conditions and positive underlying corporate profitability.



 

U.S. Equities – Macro Conditions Still Favor Growth Over Value – June 13, 2019
 · Equities · 

U.S. growth stocks have rebounded sharply this year relative to their value peers, reversing their relative losses in late-2018.



 

Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.



 

Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
 · Themes · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.



 

Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:07sec) – June 5, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide highlights from the MRB Annual Overview Of Key Macro And Investment Themes as well as a “roadmap” for investors to navigate the current global landscape.



 

U.S. – Yield Curve Inversion: Will The Fed Save The Day Like 1998? – June 4, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Last week’s inversion of the 3-month/10-year segment of the U.S. Treasury curve has renewed fears of a U.S. recession ahead.



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
 · Themes · 

This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.



 

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Trade Tensions Expose New Risks – May 28, 2019
 · Equities · 

Semiconductor and semi-equipment stocks have fallen sharply since trade tensions between the U.S. and China flared up earlier this month.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.



 

Commodities – Gold Prices: Still Sidelined – May 24, 2019
Commodities · 

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Fixed Income – Scenario Analysis For A Unique Treasury Yield Curve – May 24, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · 

The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of  Key Macro Themes (Part I) – May 23, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

U.S. – Import Growth: Low Scope For A Rebound – May 21, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. real non-oil import growth has slowed notably since late last year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Protecting Some Profits – May 17, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are protecting profits and downgrading equities to neutral within a multi-asset portfolio, following the powerful run-up in prices this year and recent escalation in trade tensions. 



 

Economy – U.S. Tariffs: First Stagflation, Then … – May 17, 2019
Economics & Policy · 

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Equities – An Aging Global Earnings Cycle Still Offers Upside – May 16, 2019
 · Equities · 

The current economic expansion is the longest on record, if measured by the U.S. cycle.



 

Webcast – Fed Policy: Navigating Inflation Distortions (10min:42sec) – May 15, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide addresses recent trends in U.S inflation and the scope for inflation to meaningfully alter Fed policy over the coming year.



 

U.S. Equities – Navigating Trade Uncertainties – May 14, 2019
 · Equities · 

Equities have been jolted in the past week after an abrupt escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.



 

Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Crowded Trade – May 10, 2019
Foreign Exchange · 

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Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: A Limited Relief Valve -May 10, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Equities – Global Equities: Tentative Signs Of An Earnings Bottom – May 10, 2019
Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.



 

Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.



 

U.S. – Could Low Inflation Alone Lead The Fed To Cut Rates? – May 7, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Speculation that the Fed could cut interest rates to spur U.S. inflation has risen recently.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care Stocks: Putting Policy Risks Into Context – May 2, 2019
 · Equities · 

Health care stocks have been battered in recent months due to concerns about increased government intervention in the sector.



 

Webcast – Blowing Bubbles (9min:15sec) – May 1, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Central banks have used subdued consumer price inflation to justify keeping policy ultra-accommodative.



 

Theme – A Bubbly World: A Critique Of The Fed’s Pivot – April 30, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Central banks have used subdued consumer price inflation to justify keeping policy ultra-accommodative.



 

U.S. – Are Inventories Dangerously High? – April 26, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. business inventory to sales (I/S) ratio, which has been rising since mid-2018, continued to boost GDP growth in Q1.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The Pain Trades Rolls On – April 26, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Central banks, including the Fed, will stay dovish until after better economic data arrives, which bodes well for equities and credit.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Inflation Protection: Still Room For Outperformance – April 26, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. Equities – Road & Rail Stocks: Downside Risks Diminishing, But Caution Is Still Warranted – April 23, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our report examines the prospects for the road & rail sub-group, which is dominated by railroad companies.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Don’t Short U.S. Corporate Profits – April 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The improvement in the Chinese economy is gaining momentum, and will provide a lift to global activity and support risk asset prices.



 

U.S. – Inflation: Will The Fed Look Past The Distortions? – April 17, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Benign U.S. inflation and inflation expectations played a key role in the Fed’s recent signal to hold off on policy rate hikes this year.



 

Webcast – Monetary Reflation In A Deleveraging World (12min:30sec) – April 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The mechanics and impact of monetary policy have been heavily debated from the onset of the Great Recession and has heated up again since the Fed whipsawed investors with a massive pivot.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V – April 12, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. and global ex-U.S. equity prices should hit new highs given our expectation that the tentative turnaround in global trade and manufacturing activity will gain momentum.



 

Equities – How Much Relative Bang For The Buck Are U.S. Stocks Delivering? – April 12, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. – Housing: Room For An Upside Surprise – April 11, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The recent inversion of the U.S Treasury curve is widely seen as a bearish bond-market signal for the U.S. economy.



 

Webcast – Signs Of An Economic Inflection Point (9min:18sec) – April 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Global Fixed Income – Did Treasury Investors Cry Wolf Again? – April 9, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

There has been a tendency by investors and central banks to overreact to softer economic data in recent years and prematurely forecast an imminent U.S. (and global) recession, much like the boy who cried wolf.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – Signs Of Stability, But Too Early To Rotate Out Of Quality And Growth – April 4, 2019
 · Equities · 

The first quarter saw cyclical stocks rebound from deeply oversold levels relative to their defensives counterparts.



 

Webcast – Cyclical Opportunities (7min:41sec) – April 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for regional equities and MRB’s recommended position for the next 6-12 months.



 

Theme – Monetary Reflation Simplified: Mapping The Limitations & Risks – April 2, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

In this report we explain a simplified framework and use the U.S. and euro area as examples to answer several frequently asked questions as well as address a few common misconceptions.



 

Equities – U.S. Equities: Small-Cap Warning Sign? – March 29, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. – Yield Curve: Is Anything Really Different This Time? – March 28, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

U.S. Treasury curve inversions are rare and have a solid historical record of preceding U.S. business cycle peaks.



 

Policy – What’s Important To Know About MMT? – March 28, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has popped up on investors’ radar, and in the mainstream of policy debate, in recent months, but the concept has had a long gestation period.



 

Webcast – Client Requests Of The Month (9min:19sec) – March 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.



 

Regional Equities Report – A Sustained Expansion Favors Cyclical Markets – March 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

We expect equity prices to be higher over the next 6-12 months, albeit with periodic setbacks that will test nerves.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflation Top Up – March 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed added additional economic insurance this week, which will cap bond yields, but provide further fuel for risk asset prices.



 

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Don’t Chase – March 22, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our report discusses why investors should not chase the rally in the semiconductor sub-group.



 

Fixed Income – G7 Bonds: Central Banks Give Steering Wheel To Inflation – March 22, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Policy – U.S. Fed Policy: The Capitulation Continues – March 21, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

By removing the prospect of further rate hikes this year from the policy “dot plot”, yesterday’s FOMC meeting confirmed the sharp dovish turn in the policy stance signaled by chair Powell in January.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Desynchronized World – March 18, 2019
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has drifted slightly higher on the back of slower global growth and ongoing investor uncertainty about the economic outlook.



 

U.S. Equities – Industrial Stocks: More Pain Ahead – March 15, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our report examines the prospects for industrial stocks, which have suffered a setback in the past week, due in part, to the selloff in Boeing’s shares.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Tortoise Cycle – March 15, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The window of opportunity for further gains in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist for the next 6 to 12 months.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.



 

U.S. – Capex: Moderating Growth, But Still Supportive For The Economy – March 13, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. nonresidential investment (capex) continued growing at a solid pace though the end of last year, providing a substantial lift to GDP growth.



 

Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.



 

U.S. – Consumption: No Signs Of Cyclical Weakness – March 7, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Adjusting for some near-term data distortions, U.S. consumption is on a solid footing.



 

Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.



 

Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.



 

U.S. – Recession Checklist: Taking The Pulse – February 28, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Recession fears escalated sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018, reflected in the sharp decline in risk asset prices and ultimately inducing the Fed to back off from planned monetary tightening.



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care Provider & Service Stocks: Buy The Dip – February 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

We recommend upgrading the health care providers & services sub-group to overweight from neutral. Our report provides the rationale behind our bullish stance on these stocks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Flickers Of Life – February 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A calm bond market, sidelined central banks and good odds that corporate earnings will grind higher this year, all bode well for equities and credit.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Don’t Fret About The Recent Re-Rating – February 22, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – A Justified Equity Re-Rating (8min:22sec) – February 20, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins examines the recent rebound in equities across key markets, breaking down earnings trends and valuations, as well as implications for prospective returns.



 

Policy – What To Expect From U.S. Inflation Expectations – February 19, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed cited subdued U.S. inflation expectations as a key supporting factor in its recent decision to put policy rate hikes on hold.



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Don’t Throw In The Powell – February 19, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our report examines the prospects for U.S. bank stocks in light of the recent dovish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Testing Times – February 15, 2019
 · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some key equity indexes are breaking above resistance levels and high-yield corporate bond spreads are narrowing, which bode well for risk assets.



 

U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: A Temporary Reprieve – February 14, 2019
 · Equities · 

This report updates our views on U.S. real estate stocks (i.e. REITs).



 

Policy – What If Foreigners Retreat From U.S. Treasurys? – February 14, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The U.S. budget deficit is ballooning, while net foreign demand for Treasury securities is drying up.



 

Webcast – An Update On The U.S. Market Outlook And Sector Positioning (7min:45sec) – February 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. equities and MRB’s recommended positioning.



 

Policy – Synchronized Moderation Temporarily Halts The Great Monetary Unwind – February 12, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S.-led gradual global monetary unwind has temporarily paused, with the Fed recently moving to the sidelines.



 

U.S. – Labor Market: It Pays To Participate – February 11, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. labor force participation rate rebounded in the latter half of last year and continued to rise in January.



 

U.S. Equities – Does The Fed Pause Warrant A Re-Positioning Of Portfolios? – February 11, 2019
 · Equities · 

This report updates our views on U.S. sector positioning in light of the Fed’s recent policy U-turn.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Pain Trade Persist? – February 8, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth has softened, but key demand engines are in good shape.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Signposts For The Equity Rebound – February 8, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.



 

Global Fixed Income – Navigating The Cyclical And Secular Crosscurrents – February 6, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

This report analyzes the forces driving the recent drop in U.S. and G7 government bond yields and whether cyclical forces have shifted sustainably in support of bonds.



 

Policy – The Powell Put, At What Cost? – February 1, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed may have boxed itself in with its dovish communication at this week’s policy meeting



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.



 

Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.



 

U.S. – Economy: Moderating But Resilient – January 29, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

In this report, we highlight the charts that best capture our current views on the U.S. economy.



 

U.S. Equities – U.S. Earnings: Benign Deceleration Or Pernicious Decline? – January 25, 2019
 · Equities · 

Corporate earnings will remain in the spotlight in the next few weeks as fourth-quarter (Q4) results from S&P 500 companies continue to pour in.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It’s Late, But Not Yet Over – January 25, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent equity market low (high in corporate bond spreads) should hold, but a re-test is still possible.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Yield Curve: Distorted By Investor Uncertainty – January 25, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part II) – January 24, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the second of a two-part MRB Theme Report that outlines several non-consensus views about the next global recession and environment



 

Webcast – U.S. Equities: Focus On The Top-Line (6min:59sec) – January 23, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins examines the outlook for revenue growth for the S&P 500 in 2019, which will be the key to equity market performance.



 

U.S. – Equities: Revenue Growth Will Be The Key – January 22, 2019
 · Equities · 

Revenue performance, rather than the fading impact of the tax cuts, share buybacks or profit margins will drive the U.S. equity market in 2019.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Gauging Rebound Potential – January 18, 2019
Equities · 

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Economy – The Rise In U.S. Inflation Is Back On Track – January 18, 2019
Economics & Policy · 

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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like



 

U.S. Equities – It Boils Down To The Recession Call – January 15, 2019
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The dominant issue for equity markets in early-2019 is whether the collapse in… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Calmer Heads Prevail? – January 11, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk asset markets overreacted to a modest deterioration in the fundamentals in late-2018.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Is The Rally Over? – January 11, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.



 

Webcast – Excessive Pessimism Priced In (10min:32sec) – January 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest asset allocation strategy, arguing that markets are discounting an overly bearish economic outlook in 2019.



 

Charts – What Is The U.S. Labor Market Signaling? – January 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. hiring showed exceptional momentum through the end of the year, despite the environment of elevated economic uncertainty.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Precarious Footing – January 4, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets are discounting a pronounced further slowdown in global economic growth in 2019, with a significant probability of recession.



 

Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – 2019 Outlook: Staying Balanced And Diversified – December 21, 2018
 · Equities · 

Equity markets are ending the year on a downbeat note, with end-of-cycle fears and political uncertainties continuing to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It Is Either/Or – December 21, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The FOMC (and chair Powell) stumbled in its communication strategy this week.



 

U.S. – The Fed: A Swing And A Miss – December 20, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The FOMC issued a “dovish” fed funds rate hike at yesterday’s meeting, taking one rate hike off the table for next year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.



 

Regional Equities Report – Relative Performance Shifts Emerging – December 19, 2018
 · Equities · 

Our view, as outlined last week in the MRB Weekly Macro Strategy, is that the global economic expansion will persist,



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.



 

Charts – U.S. Housing Stress Persists – December 12, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

In this report we analyze recent U.S. housing indicators.



 

Global Foreign Exchange Report – FX Markets: 2019 Outlook – December 11, 2018
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar appreciated this year against most currencies, although only modestly despite most variables (including interest rate differentials and relative growth) favoring the currency.



 

U.S. Equities – Trade Whipsaw – December 10, 2018
 · Equities · 

Markets have been whipsawed over the past week amid confusion over the substance of a U.S./China trade cease-fire and fears that the recently agreed to truce will prove fragile



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.



 

U.S. – Inflation: Don’t Extrapolate Softer Data – December 6, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

We expect a modest increase in U.S core inflation next year, while the consensus expects core inflation to largely flatline over the period with a downside bias.



 

Webcast – Stylized Investment Cycle: Navigating The Endgame (11min:42sec) – December 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Global equity markets are in turmoil, as investors are rapidly downgrading the growth expectations and starting to panic about the potential for a global recession.



 

Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle: Extended Topping Out Process – December 4, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since we introduced it to clients earlier this decade.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-Off Pressures Ease – November 30, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Worries that the Fed will prematurely turn restrictive have diminished, helping to calm the Treasury market.



 

WMS – Equities – Global Equities: Relative Performance Is All About Tech – November 30, 2018
Equities · 

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U.S. – Growth: Don’t Buy Pessimism At Face Value – November 29, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

We expect U.S. growth to weaken but remain above-potential next year.



 

Webcast – U.S. Corporate Debt: Vulnerabilities, But Blow-Up Fears Are Premature (8min:04sec) – November 28, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for U.S. corporate debt.



 

Charts – U.S. Corporate Debt: The Economy Trumps Leverage – November 27, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

Anxiety about the outlook for U.S. corporate debt has escalated recently, as evidenced by the sharp rise in corporate bond spreads.



 

U.S. Equities – Some Hopeful Signs Amid The Gloom – November 26, 2018
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. equity markets have remained volatile in the wake of last month’s sell-off…. Continue



 

WMS – Equities – The Global Earnings Outlook Is Too Bearish – November 23, 2018
Equities · 

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WMS – Commodities – Oil Prices: Fear Still Rules The Roost – November 23, 2018
Commodities · Emerging Markets · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Global Economic Stool: Are The Legs Wobbly? – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been hit hard over the past few weeks, with global… Continue



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.



 

Theme – The Great Convergence: U.S. Vs Global Equities – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Equities · Themes · 

U.S. equity prices have surged this cycle relative to their non-U.S. counterparts by a magnitude that that has been on par with the 1990s economic expansion and equity bull run.



 

WMS – Fixed-Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: Extended Consolidation – November 16, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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WMS – Economy – The U.S. Economy: A Bit Slower, But Mostly More Of The Same – November 16, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

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Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.



 

Webcast – DM Sovereign Debt Risks: Assessing Structural Vulnerabilities (9min:35sec) – November 14, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

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Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt Risks: Are There Any Safe-Havens? – November 13, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

Mismanagement of public finances leaves several developed markets susceptible to sovereign debt strains when the next global recession eventually arrives.



 

U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: Putting The October Rout Into Context – November 12, 2018
 · Equities · 

Technology stocks sold-off sharply last month as concerns about trade tariffs and rising interest rates spurred a significant bout of profit-taking in the sector.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back To Gridlock – November 9, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. politics will remain “noisy”, but should have an overall benign impact on the economy and financial markets.



 

U.S. – Don’t Stress About U.S. Growth Prospects – November 7, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

Financial markets have recently reacted as if a significant global growth slowdown is looming.



 

Webcast – No Major U.S. Election Wave To Disrupt Markets (9min:05sec) – November 7, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins lays out the impact of the U.S. mid-term elections on capital markets and U.S. policy, as well as discussing the key drivers of investment positioning recommendations.



 

Theme – Persistent Undercurrent Of Political Instability – November 6, 2018
 · Themes · 

One of our core macro themes over the past few years has been that many countries (including much of the developed world) have an undercurrent of social unrest, making them prone to heightened political instability.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Excessive Growth Anxiety – November 2, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Last month’s market reaction was largely overdone. That U.S. economic and earnings growth are in the process of peaking which goes without saying given that this year’s fiscal stimulus will fade in 2019.



 

U.S. Equities – Peak Earnings Growth, Not Peak Earnings – November 1, 2018
 · Equities · 

Last month’s correction has pushed valuations for the U.S. equity benchmark to levels where they discount an overly bearish outcome for earnings.



 

Global Fixed Income – Normalization Vs Destabilization – November 1, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

Our view remains that government bond yields will move up in waves, with each successive wave higher exposing more unbalanced segments of the global economy that have become reliant on a permanently cheap cost of capital.



 

Webcast – The End Of Cheap Money: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (8min:57sec) – October 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Sentiment Versus Fundamentals – October 26, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Shrinking The Fed’s Balance Sheet: Still Much Ado About Nothing – October 26, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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WMS – Equities – Global Markets Are Discounting A Major Decline In Earnings – October 26, 2018