Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021


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Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · 

This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2020 Review – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports2020 provided a rollercoaster ride in many financial asset markets, as investors were forced… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2021 – (83min:39sec) – December 23, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this Webinar, MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2021.



 

Regional Equities – Outlook 2021: Piecemeal Rotation – December 22, 2020
 · Equities · 

The improving economic outlook is positive for equites overall, although it is already well-discounted in share prices (most notably in the U.S.).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.



 

Equities – U.K.: Any Brexit Deal Will Help – December 18, 2020
Equities · 

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Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.



 

Webcast – Is It Time For Financial Stocks? – (11min:28sec) – November 25, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global financial stocks following the release of the MRB Research Highlight:
“Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership” on November 18, 2020.



 

Policy – Global Monetary Policy Will Stay Very Accommodative – November 24, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The report is an annual study that compares the relative pressures facing the various central banks in the developed world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.



 

Global Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership – November 18, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Global financial stocks have enjoyed a solid bounce in recent weeks, breaking out of a trading range that had prevailed from June through October.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.



 

Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks



 

Global Fixed Income – The Reflationary Bridge And The Bond Market – September 25, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. and G7 government bond yields have traded in an extremely tight range of late as bond volatility has been crushed by global central banks through highly accommodative policies and strong forward guidance.



 

Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
 · Equities · 

A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.



 

Equities – U.K.: If It’s Not One Thing, It’s Another – September 18, 2020
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.



 

Fixed Income / Foreign Exchange – U.K. Risks Warrant Cautious Positioning – August 21, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.



 

Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.



 

Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.