Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020


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Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks



 

Global Fixed Income – The Reflationary Bridge And The Bond Market – September 25, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. and G7 government bond yields have traded in an extremely tight range of late as bond volatility has been crushed by global central banks through highly accommodative policies and strong forward guidance.



 

Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
 · Equities · 

A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.



 

Equities – U.K.: If It’s Not One Thing, It’s Another – September 18, 2020
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.



 

Fixed Income / Foreign Exchange – U.K. Risks Warrant Cautious Positioning – August 21, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.



 

Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.



 

Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.



 

Webcast – Catalyst For A Regional Equity Rotation Is Not Yet In View – (9min:51sec) – June 24, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Regional Equities – Greater Earnings Certainty Needed For A Major Rotation – June 18, 2020
 · Equities · 

There are important crosscurrents in translating the macro landscape into regional equity positioning.



 

TradeBook Update – June 12, 2020
Absolute Return · 

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Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.



 

Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.



 

COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Fed Has A Backstop For Everything – April 21, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

In response to the sharp COVID-19 economic fallout, the Fed has adopted an unprecedented set of stimulus measures with clear positive implications for fixed-income assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.



 

Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.



 

Regional Equities – The Best Offense Is A Good Defense – March 26, 2020
 · Equities · 

The uncertainty associated with COVID-19 and the countermeasures being taken to ameliorate it justify a conservative regional equity allocation in the near term.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Impact Of COVID-19 On FX Strategy – March 26, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Given the uncertainty associated with the global health crisis, it is helpful to consider scenario analysis for FX strategy over the next 6-12 months.



 

COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.



 

Webcast – Buybacks Are An Important Factor In The U.S. ROE Advantage (11min:53sec) – February 19, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins takes a close look at return on equity in the major markets over the past decade and highlights some important drivers and considerations for valuations.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.