Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022


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Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Will Trump Dollar Debt – October 27, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Spreads for EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have come screaming in over the past three months



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can EM Continue To Outperform DM (ex-U.S.)? – October 20, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is king. To be fair, this has been the case only for the fourth time since the early-1970s



 

Emerging Market Equities – In Search Of Earnings Growth (At A Reasonable Price) – September 15, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Forward earnings growth is hard to find in the EM world, and is absent from three of its four major bourses



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Stick With Selective High-Yielders – August 25, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Global inflation rates are mathematically certain to decline in the months ahead, thanks to base effects and lower energy costs.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Finding Shelter From The Dollar’s Chokehold – July 13, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The dominance of the U.S. dollar has become so pervasive in EM currency markets that allocations to EM offer very little diversification in a global currency portfolio



 

Emerging Market Equities – China’s Reopening Lifts EM, But For How Long? – June 30, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The long underperformance of EM has swung round into outperformance thanks to the desynchronized nature of Chinese economic momentum and its policy stance versus trends in developed markets (DM).



 

South Africa – Rand Bonds: Will SARB End The Party? – May 31, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

South Africa is one of the exceptions among the major EM bond issuers: its inflation has been much more modest than most emerging and developed market counterparts



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Case For EM Debt Is In Relative, Not Absolute Terms – May 12, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The primary bogeyman for EM debt, both in its local currency (EMLCD) and hard currency (EM$D) variants, is a negative global growth shock.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Opportunity Lost, Or Just Delayed? – April 28, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Since the uncertainties unleashed by the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020



 

Emerging Market Equities – Fundamentals And Sentiment Diverge – March 31, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The outlook for EM equities is clouded by a lack of obvious earnings momentum, and although we still recommend holding it at overweight within a global equity portfolio, we see better opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in Europe.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Breaking From The Dollar Yoke – February 22, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat



 

Emerging Market Equities – 2022 Outlook – January 20, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

In the face of the self-inflicted deleveraging process hurting its property sector, China bucked the global trend and cut its policy rate this week, while at the same time directing fiscal stimulus towards fixed asset and infrastructure spending.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – A Barbell Of Yield And Quality Will Outperform – January 13, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The traditional macro drivers of EM debt performance, namely credit quality, monetary policy, liquidity and overall growth conditions offer a mixed picture, with strong demand rebounds triggering rising inflation.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – 2022 EM Currency Outlook: Stay With Quality – December 20, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat



 

Emerging Market Equities – Waiting For The China Bounce – November 23, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

This year’s powerful revival in global trade and overall demand usually would have been associated with strong EM stock performance



 

Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Time To Focus More On Quality – October 28, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

It is relatively rare for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at the same time as Treasury yields rise



 

Webcast – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – (7min:40sec) – September 29, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani highlights some of the key takeaways from last week’s MRB Emerging Market Equities Report



 

Emerging Market Equities – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – September 23, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The overall backdrop for EM equities remains broadly constructive, given the robust trade cycle, solid domestic demand and continuing liquidity support in the world’s leading economies.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Generous Spreads Belie Constructive Backdrop – September 2, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The case for holding emerging market local-currency denominated debt (EMLCD) is a simple one: the EMLCD spread (over Treasuries) has widened to levels consistent with economic stress



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Dollar Is Still King… Of EM FX Performance – August 26, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

While the ebb and flow of U.S. dollar sentiment will continue to tug at the performance of EM currencies, the overall global trade and economic backdrop over the next year will be supportive of modest dollar weakness



 

Emerging Market Equities – EM Bank Earnings Turnaround Offers Key Support – July 15, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM earnings momentum is picking up, and broadening beyond the semiconductor sector.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt Will Shine While The U.S. Dollar Softens – May 20, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Two key external drivers of EM bond returns will offer a constructive backdrop in the year ahead.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – When Uncertain, Prioritize Growth – May 13, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

The overarching driver of EM currencies is global trade, which offers a strongly positive backdrop and will likely propel appreciation versus a softening U.S. dollar.



 

Emerging Market Equities – When Global Trade Pops, EM Stocks Sizzle – April 29, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Recent EM underperformance is mostly attributable to the renewed vigor of stocks in the U.S., along with some idiosyncratic risks that have impacted mega-cap Chinese stocks.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt To Outperform, Even With Rising Global Bond Yields – April 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Three months ago we warned of short-term headwinds to EMLCD returns, while remaining confident of their ability to outperform within a global fixed income portfolio on a 6-12 month view.



 

Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Don’t Fear The Treasury Bear Market – March 23, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

In the midst of a burst of synchronized global growth, financed by Uncle Sam’s mega-stimulus, EM currencies stand to ride higher on a tide of investor risk appetite.



 

Emerging Market Equities – Asian Outperformance Will Drive EM To Irrelevance – February 11, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

“Be careful what you wish for” is the Aesop’s fable that applies to long-suffering EM equity investors, who have been waiting a decade for a sustained period of outperformance.