MacroResearchBoard
| Independent Investment Strategy
south-africa
Emerging Market Equities – Earnings Are Outperforming, Prices Will Follow – September 10, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The stars are aligning for EM stocks, and we expect that several factors will combine and contribute to the outperformance of the asset class over the next 6-12 months.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Stick With High Yielders – July 25, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local-currency and U.S. dollar-denominated debt will resume outperformance within a global fixed-income portfolio.
Emerging Market Equities – Trade Recovery Will Sustain The Upside For Stocks – June 27, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Global trade is recovering, despite a rising tide of protectionism. EM stocks typically outperform when trade is strengthening…
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Riding The Coattails Of Improving Global Trade – June 20, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM domestic growth and policy drivers are already supportive of EMFX, and many EM currencies have appreciated against the U.S. dollar over the past 12-18 months.
EM Elections – Smoke But No Fire, Yet – June 7, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
It has been a busy political calendar for emerging markets over the past week, with elections in India, Mexico and South Africa all delivering surprising results and sharp selloffs.
Webinar – Emerging Markets: Navigating Global Cross Currents – (61min:41sec) – May 22, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
As the global trade cycle recovers and China’s growth firms, the backdrop for EM assets appears solid.
Emerging Market Equities – EM Stocks Will Outperform As Global Trade Recovers – April 25, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
With the level of imports rising in the U.S., China and Japan (albeit not yet in the euro area) a recovery in the global trade cycle is now a reality rather than a forecast.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Any Juice Left To Squeeze? – April 4, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local currency debt (EMLCD) and its US$-denominated counterpart (EM$D) have sharply outperformed U.S. and G7 government bonds over the past two years.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Export Revival Heralds EMFX Outperformance – February 29, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Investors have been operating under the assumption that stronger U.S. growth (and subsequently higher U.S. Treasury yields) inevitably leads to weaker EM currencies, judging by recent negative correlation between the two.
Emerging Market Equities – The Stars Align For EM ex-China – February 22, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
What to do about cheap and unloved Chinese stocks? We recognize that many foreign investors have relegated China to “non-investable” status…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Another Positive Year Ahead – January 23, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM government debt, both local currency (EMLCD) and US$-denominated (EM$D), handily outperformed their developed market (DM) counterparts last year…
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.
2024 Emerging Market Equities Outlook – Global Trade Revival Will Favor EM – December 19, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM stocks tend to outperform their DM peers when global trade is sturdy, and the first signs of an upturn in global exports are already evident in the bellwether Korean and Taiwanese economies.
2024 Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Outlook – Clearer Skies Ahead – December 5, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
EM currencies were resilient this year in the face of several exogenous headwinds, including rising U.S. Treasury yields…
Webinar – EM ex-China Behind The Wheel, China In The Backseat – (59min:33sec) – November 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek addressed the outlook for EM assets in absolute and relative terms over the coming 6-12 months.
Webcast – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – (7min:09sec) – November 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani looks at the outlook for emerging market equities.
Emerging Market Equities – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – October 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Apart from some strong but short-lived bursts of outperformance, EM stocks have underperformed their DM (mainly U.S.) peers on a trend basis for a long time.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: More Tailwinds – October 17, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM economic growth momentum is firming, which is credit-positive and has been historically accompanied by tightening EM bond spreads.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Will EM Rate Cuts End The Party? – September 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies will appreciate versus the dollar as investors come around to MRB’s no US. recession view and shift their focus to positive EM domestic currency drivers, namely strengthening relative growth momentum.
Emerging Market Equities – Time To Rotate To EM ex-China – August 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For those who have no mandated exposure to EM and make an undifferentiated call on the EM aggregate, we are continuing to recommend an overweight in EM stocks within a global equity portfolio.
Webcast – EM Debt: Solid Growth And Rate Cuts Sustain Outperformance – (8min:52sec) – August 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Amr Abdel Khalek discusses the outlook for emerging market government bonds.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Stars Align For EM Local-Currency Debt – July 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Emerging market (EM) growth will accelerate over the next 6-12 months, driven primarily by EM Asia.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Rate Cuts Are Coming – July 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
With conditions falling into place for a softening in the U.S. dollar’s cross rate with major DM currencies…
Emerging Market Equities – Get Ready To Rotate To EM ex-China – June 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The concept of a single “EM” asset class may well be out-dated (given that 60% of the index comprises China, Korea and Taiwan)…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Firming Growth And Rate Cuts Will Sustain Outperformance – June 1, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Firming growth (in the context of disinflation), especially in EM Asia, will improve credit risk of EM local currency debt (EMLCD) relative to DM peers.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Come For The Growth, Stay For The Rate Cuts – May 25, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The case for holding EM currencies is primarily predicated on their association with stronger growth and fewer risks to growth than their DM peers.
Emerging Market Equities – It’s All About China, For Now – April 13, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In a world of constrained expectations and earnings counter-currents, EM stocks offer decent prospects for outperformance.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Resilient And Poised To Outperform – March 23, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The return outlook for both EM local currency (EMLCD) and U.S. dollar debt may appear unappealing at first glance given how tight spreads are against their U.S. counterparts.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Better Growth Supports EM Currency Appreciation – March 16, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to see good odds of improving global growth conditions this year, with a reopening in China now gaining momentum…
Emerging Market Equities – More Than Just A China Bounce? – February 28, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
With China’s earnings momentum already improving and a material economic rebound under way this year, Chinese stocks are well set to outperform their EM and DM peers.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Goldilocks Favors EM Debt – January 19, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
For an investor whose only insight into the EM debt asset class is a chart plotting the spread between EM debt and U.S. Treasury bonds…
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Will Break Free Of The Dollar’s Chokehold In 2023 – January 12, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a dizzying array of global economic forces that have dominated the EM currency landscape.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
Roundtable – 2023 Outlook For Emerging Market Investing – (60min:00sec) – December 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing MRB’s views for economic growth and asset markets in the emerging markets, covering the following topics:
Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Will Trump Dollar Debt – October 27, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Spreads for EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have come screaming in over the past three months
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can EM Continue To Outperform DM (ex-U.S.)? – October 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is king. To be fair, this has been the case only for the fourth time since the early-1970s
Emerging Market Equities – In Search Of Earnings Growth (At A Reasonable Price) – September 15, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Forward earnings growth is hard to find in the EM world, and is absent from three of its four major bourses
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Stick With Selective High-Yielders – August 25, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Global inflation rates are mathematically certain to decline in the months ahead, thanks to base effects and lower energy costs.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Finding Shelter From The Dollar’s Chokehold – July 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The dominance of the U.S. dollar has become so pervasive in EM currency markets that allocations to EM offer very little diversification in a global currency portfolio
Emerging Market Equities – China’s Reopening Lifts EM, But For How Long? – June 30, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The long underperformance of EM has swung round into outperformance thanks to the desynchronized nature of Chinese economic momentum and its policy stance versus trends in developed markets (DM).
South Africa – Rand Bonds: Will SARB End The Party? – May 31, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
South Africa is one of the exceptions among the major EM bond issuers: its inflation has been much more modest than most emerging and developed market counterparts
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Case For EM Debt Is In Relative, Not Absolute Terms – May 12, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The primary bogeyman for EM debt, both in its local currency (EMLCD) and hard currency (EM$D) variants, is a negative global growth shock.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Opportunity Lost, Or Just Delayed? – April 28, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Since the uncertainties unleashed by the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020
Emerging Market Equities – Fundamentals And Sentiment Diverge – March 31, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities is clouded by a lack of obvious earnings momentum, and although we still recommend holding it at overweight within a global equity portfolio, we see better opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in Europe.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Breaking From The Dollar Yoke – February 22, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Emerging Market Equities – 2022 Outlook – January 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In the face of the self-inflicted deleveraging process hurting its property sector, China bucked the global trend and cut its policy rate this week, while at the same time directing fiscal stimulus towards fixed asset and infrastructure spending.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – A Barbell Of Yield And Quality Will Outperform – January 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The traditional macro drivers of EM debt performance, namely credit quality, monetary policy, liquidity and overall growth conditions offer a mixed picture, with strong demand rebounds triggering rising inflation.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – 2022 EM Currency Outlook: Stay With Quality – December 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Emerging Market Equities – Waiting For The China Bounce – November 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
This year’s powerful revival in global trade and overall demand usually would have been associated with strong EM stock performance
Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Time To Focus More On Quality – October 28, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
It is relatively rare for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at the same time as Treasury yields rise
Webcast – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – (7min:40sec) – September 29, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani highlights some of the key takeaways from last week’s MRB Emerging Market Equities Report
Emerging Market Equities – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – September 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The overall backdrop for EM equities remains broadly constructive, given the robust trade cycle, solid domestic demand and continuing liquidity support in the world’s leading economies.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Generous Spreads Belie Constructive Backdrop – September 2, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for holding emerging market local-currency denominated debt (EMLCD) is a simple one: the EMLCD spread (over Treasuries) has widened to levels consistent with economic stress
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Dollar Is Still King… Of EM FX Performance – August 26, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
While the ebb and flow of U.S. dollar sentiment will continue to tug at the performance of EM currencies, the overall global trade and economic backdrop over the next year will be supportive of modest dollar weakness
Emerging Market Equities – EM Bank Earnings Turnaround Offers Key Support – July 15, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM earnings momentum is picking up, and broadening beyond the semiconductor sector.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt Will Shine While The U.S. Dollar Softens – May 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Two key external drivers of EM bond returns will offer a constructive backdrop in the year ahead.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – When Uncertain, Prioritize Growth – May 13, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The overarching driver of EM currencies is global trade, which offers a strongly positive backdrop and will likely propel appreciation versus a softening U.S. dollar.
Emerging Market Equities – When Global Trade Pops, EM Stocks Sizzle – April 29, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Recent EM underperformance is mostly attributable to the renewed vigor of stocks in the U.S., along with some idiosyncratic risks that have impacted mega-cap Chinese stocks.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt To Outperform, Even With Rising Global Bond Yields – April 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Three months ago we warned of short-term headwinds to EMLCD returns, while remaining confident of their ability to outperform within a global fixed income portfolio on a 6-12 month view.
Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Don’t Fear The Treasury Bear Market – March 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In the midst of a burst of synchronized global growth, financed by Uncle Sam’s mega-stimulus, EM currencies stand to ride higher on a tide of investor risk appetite.
Emerging Market Equities – Asian Outperformance Will Drive EM To Irrelevance – February 11, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
“Be careful what you wish for” is the Aesop’s fable that applies to long-suffering EM equity investors, who have been waiting a decade for a sustained period of outperformance.
Emerging Market Equities – The Implications Of EM Stock Concentration – February 11, 2021
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
This report focuses primarily on the two issues: the outlook for the EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) asset class, and how investors should approach investment in Chinese government bonds.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.
Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
Emerging Market Equities – 2021 Outlook: EM Growth Sizzles, Can Earnings Pop? – November 11, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities in 2021 hinges on their relative earnings outlook, which in turn will be determined by the prospects for a broad-based and reasonably synchronized global economic recovery.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.
Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio.
Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”
South Africa – Saved By The Fed, For Now – July 30, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
The IMF threw South Africa a lifeline this week and opened the door to other multilateral loans to deal with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Emerging Markets Equities – Buying Growth, Or A Bubble, In China – July 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Investors in EM equities rarely face easy choices and the current circumstances offer a particularly challenging mix of risks and opportunities.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized ·
Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.
COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.
Emerging Markets – Rand Bonds: Light At The End Of The Downgrade Tunnel – April 9, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports
EM Equities – North Asia To The Fore Again – April 8, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Given the sudden stop nature of the global recession, and its potentially short-lived character (being driven by a pandemic response rather than economic factors)
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – After The Virus… Recession Or Outperformance? – March 10, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Foreign exchange markets have seen volatility spike in recent weeks as investors grapple with the potential growth shock associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.
Webcast – EM Equities: Still In Choppy Waters (7min:45sec) – February 12, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses positioning on EM stocks in a global equity portfolio.
Emerging Market Equities – Buy On (Viral) Dips, But Only Selectively – February 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For the next several weeks, global investors may be mesmerized by the potential hit to global growth associated with China’s coronavirus epidemic.
Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Bonds: The Best Of The Credit Universe – January 21, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The outlook for EM local currency debt (EMLCD) can be summarized as “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”, but there are no steamrollers to be seen on a 6-12 month horizon.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Upgrade EM Currencies Versus The U.S. Dollar – January 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
A steady if unspectacular improvement in global trade momentum, along with supportive global liquidity, imply that conditions are ripening for the outperformance of an EM currency basket versus…
Emerging Markets Equities – 2020 EM Equity Outlook: “Another 2012”? – December 12, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Economic momentum in the EM world has been improving, and against a backdrop of softer global data is now superior to DM momentum for the first time since 2012.
Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Outperformance Can Continue Awhile – November 26, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for overweighting EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) in a global fixed income portfolio is straightforward.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – A Skinny Trade Deal Adds Comfort, Not Return – November 19, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In a growth-challenged world, EM currencies are unlikely to escape the see-saw impact of global risk appetite, and will continue to maintain their negative correlation with the U.S. dollar.
South Africa – Rand Bonds Will Shine, Despite Downgrade Worries – October 31, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
There’s been no shortage of negative headlines about Eskom’s bailout, its impact on South Africa’s public debt sustainability, and the potential downgrade to sub-investment-grade status.
Emerging Markets Equities – The Tech Tide Turns, Will The Rest Follow? – October 10, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The rule of thumb for EM allocations in a global equity portfolio has been to look to global trade momentum as the key strategy signal. The current cycle is unique in this regard.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Growth Plus DM Liquidity: Goldilocks For Bonds – September 24, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Growth momentum in the emerging markets is lacklustre, but recession risks are low.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Indiscriminate Weakness Opens Up Opportunities – September 5, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Whether weighted by equity or debt benchmarks, EM currency aggregates have given up all their 12-month gains relative to the U.S. dollar.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – The Fed Forgives, But Several Leaps Of Faith Still Required – July 11, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equity investors are required to take several leaps of faith when looking at prospects for the year ahead.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fed Props Up EM FX While Growth Fades – June 11, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Protectionist rhetoric has ratcheted higher, dovish developed market central banks are mollifying jittery capital markets while EM assets offer a very attractive carry.
Emerging Market Equities – Political Risks Warrant A Neutral Call – May 16, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The EM earnings backdrop remains modestly positive, which is consistent with stabilizing, rather than recovering, global trade momentum.
South Africa – Underwhelming Politics, But A Disaster Was Avoided – May 9, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
This week’s elections failed to deliver a convincing enough mandate for President Ramaphosa to carry out root-and-branch structural reforms, and while it is difficult to identify a long term winner, the clear loser is private sector investment and job creation.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – It’s All About The Carry Now – April 25, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Yields on EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have declined dramatically in recent months, in line with the trend in U.S. Treasurys.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Stabilizing Growth, Easy Liquidity – April 16, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In terms of global liquidity and growth prospects, 2019 is playing out as the reverse of last year: growth is stabilizing and liquidity is plentiful, courtesy of the dovish U-turn.
Emerging Market Equities – A Narrowing Base, But Liquidity Is Forgiving – March 19, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
The case for overweighting emerging markets in a global equity portfolio rests on a narrowing base.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.
Emerging Markets – South Africa: The Poster Child For The EM Carry Play – March 1, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Fixed Income Will Outperform – February 14, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local-currency bond yields are highly correlated with U.S. Treasury yields, and as the latter have eased back from early October highs, so have EM yields.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fog Of (Trade) War Is Lifting – February 7, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies’ modest revival since October reflects in part their oversold nature after a torrid mid-year selloff last year.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Outperformance Will Continue – December 20, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) has demonstrated extraordinary resilience recently by outperforming U.S. Treasurys in a year buffeted by trade war angst, a purported EM “currency crisis”
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – The Stealth EM Recovery Has (Patchy) Support – December 13, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
EM currencies have mounted a stealth recovery since late September, despite a sharp increase in risk aversion and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Emerging Market Equities Report – Chinese Catalysts For An EM Rebound – November 21, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports This year’s selloff of EM-related assets, overdone as it was, has largely blown… Continue
South Africa – Circles Or Spirals? – October 23, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
It has been a turbulent year for South African financial assets, starting with a euphoric rally after President Ramaphosa’s victory in December 2017, and then giving back earlier gains as investors’ patience broke in the summer.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Limited Growth Risks And Attractive Valuations – October 11, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
After a period of EM local-currency bond underperformance in recent months, investors are increasingly distinguishing between those selected EM assets.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Rebalance For The Rebound – October 4, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies have recently decoupled from the U.S. dollar, forming a tentative bottom despite the dollar’s latest spike.
Emerging Market Equities Report – Trade Peace First, Outperformance Next – September 6, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have taken a hit in the last several months and market narratives tend to blame currency weakness in several G20 economies (Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Turkey) and the threat of trade war.
Webcast – EM Currencies’ Trade Tantrum (7min:23sec) – August 8, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for EM currencies after the last few weeks of investor nervousness towards this asset class.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Where There’s Muck, There’s Brass – August 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Three distinct narratives combined earlier this year to buffet EM currencies, albeit on a scale that is rather modest by the standards of 2013’s “Taper Tantrum” and 2014-2015’s commodity price meltdown.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – Love It, Or Leave It – July 12, 2018
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have decent earnings growth potential and recent selling pressure has restored attractive valuations.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Positive Growth Beats Negative Liquidity – June 14, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
There is no imminent threat of an EM debt crisis.
Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.
Emerging Market Equities Report – Not The End, Yet – May 8, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global trade growth has been the single most reliable indicator of EM equity… Continue
South Africa – Ramaphoria, The Rand, And Related Assets – April 24, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
South Africa woke up from the long nightmare of the profoundly corrupt presidency of Jacob Zuma, marked by “state capture”, feeble growth and spiralling public debt, and staged a euphoric rally to welcome President Ramaphosa.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Reassuringly Boring, For Now – April 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
When global trade is expanding, accidents rarely occur for EM currencies as a whole.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – Back Up The Truck – March 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The case for overweighting EM in a global equity portfolio is straightforward: global trade is expanding on a sustainable basis.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Clearer Skies, Time To Harvest Yield – February 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports We have been anticipating short-term turbulence for EM local-currency debt (EMLCD), followed by… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The High-Wire Act Continues – January 26, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The backdrop remains bond-bearish. Meanwhile, technical and valuation measures are progressively deteriorating for equities, particularly in the U.S.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 18, 2018
· Themes ·
This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
South Africa – All Gain, No Pain (Yet) – December 21, 2017
· Emerging Markets ·
The rand has been one of the most popular EM assets in recent weeks as the market forecasted (correctly) that Mr. Ramaphosa would win the ANC leadership race.
Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – November 9, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Once the twin air pockets of a U.S. dollar rally and a Chinese… Continue
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – November 1, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes ·
This is the third MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
South Africa Report – October 31, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
South African financial markets were buffeted by yet another government misstep, this time in last week’s mid-term budget speech during which the Finance Minister downplayed fiscal consolidation.
Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part II): The Next Wave – October 19, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series, updating our submerging world theme. Part I outlined the ramifications resulting from the mushrooming and subsequent erosion of this segment of the global economy over the past decade.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – October 5, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
A synchronized global trade cycle is traditionally the single most accurate indicator for EM currency outperformance.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.
Emerging Market Equities Report – September, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have outperformed recently: should global multi-asset investors join the party?
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – August 31, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Whenever the U.S. dollar index weakens, the relative performance of any non-dollar asset… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 28, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The cyclical backdrop remains positive for equities and mildly negative for bonds. The… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 16, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors continue to bet that the Fed will not raise rates much higher… Continue
South Africa Report – June 15, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports The widely-followed Composite Business Cycle Indicator’s improvement only reflects better external conditions, and… Continue
Webcast – China Sneezes: Do EM Currencies Catch Cold? (6min:25sec) – June 14, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). June 14 after 2:00… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – June 13, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 19, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. political risks have increased and could trigger a risk-off phase. Equity leadership… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 31, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Some caution is still warranted in the near run, given heightened political tensions… Continue
South Africa Report – February 7, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports A downturn in China’s housing cycle will dent Chinese demand for primary goods… Continue
South Africa Report – August 30, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Growth will remain weak but the external backdrop is currently supportive of South… Continue
South Africa Report – May 5, 2016
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Weak growth and political headwinds will limit the government’s ability to implement structural… Continue
South Africa Report – January 25, 2016
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Household consumption is vulnerable to higher interest rates, and will materially slow in… Continue
South Africa Report – October 9, 2015
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Growth will remain constrained and public debt-to-GDP will continue rising, leaving South Africa… Continue
South Africa Report – May 27, 2014
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Political risks are a headwind for the mining sector, not for the economy… Continue
Country Report – South Africa – January 15, 2013
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global investors should avoid the rand, bonds and maintain a maximum underweight in… Continue