Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021


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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

This report focuses primarily on the two issues: the outlook for the EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) asset class, and how investors should approach investment in Chinese government bonds.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.



 

Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.



 

Emerging Market Equities – 2021 Outlook: EM Growth Sizzles, Can Earnings Pop? – November 11, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The outlook for EM equities in 2021 hinges on their relative earnings outlook, which in turn will be determined by the prospects for a broad-based and reasonably synchronized global economic recovery.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.



 

Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio. 



 

Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”



 

South Africa – Saved By The Fed, For Now – July 30, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

The IMF threw South Africa a lifeline this week and opened the door to other multilateral loans to deal with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.



 

Emerging Markets Equities – Buying Growth, Or A Bubble, In China – July 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Investors in EM equities rarely face easy choices and the current circumstances offer a particularly challenging mix of risks and opportunities.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized · 

Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.



 

COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.



 

Emerging Markets – Rand Bonds: Light At The End Of The Downgrade Tunnel – April 9, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

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EM Equities – North Asia To The Fore Again – April 8, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Given the sudden stop nature of the global recession, and its potentially short-lived character (being driven by a pandemic response rather than economic factors)



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – After The Virus… Recession Or Outperformance? – March 10, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Foreign exchange markets have seen volatility spike in recent weeks as investors grapple with the potential growth shock associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.



 

Webcast – EM Equities: Still In Choppy Waters (7min:45sec) – February 12, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses positioning on EM stocks in a global equity portfolio.



 

Emerging Market Equities – Buy On (Viral) Dips, But Only Selectively – February 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

For the next several weeks, global investors may be mesmerized by the potential hit to global growth associated with China’s coronavirus epidemic.



 

Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Bonds: The Best Of The Credit Universe – January 21, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The outlook for EM local currency debt (EMLCD) can be summarized as “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”, but there are no steamrollers to be seen on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Upgrade EM Currencies Versus The U.S. Dollar – January 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

A steady if unspectacular improvement in global trade momentum, along with supportive global liquidity, imply that conditions are ripening for the outperformance of an EM currency basket versus…



 

Emerging Markets Equities – 2020 EM Equity Outlook: “Another 2012”? – December 12, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Economic momentum in the EM world has been improving, and against a backdrop of softer global data is now superior to DM momentum for the first time since 2012.



 

Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Outperformance Can Continue Awhile – November 26, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The case for overweighting EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) in a global fixed income portfolio is straightforward.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – A Skinny Trade Deal Adds Comfort, Not Return – November 19, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

In a growth-challenged world, EM currencies are unlikely to escape the see-saw impact of global risk appetite, and will continue to maintain their negative correlation with the U.S. dollar.



 

South Africa – Rand Bonds Will Shine, Despite Downgrade Worries – October 31, 2019
Emerging Markets · 

There’s been no shortage of negative headlines about Eskom’s bailout, its impact on South Africa’s public debt sustainability, and the potential downgrade to sub-investment-grade status.



 

Emerging Markets Equities – The Tech Tide Turns, Will The Rest Follow? – October 10, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The rule of thumb for EM allocations in a global equity portfolio has been to look to global trade momentum as the key strategy signal. The current cycle is unique in this regard.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Growth Plus DM Liquidity: Goldilocks For Bonds – September 24, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Growth momentum in the emerging markets is lacklustre, but recession risks are low.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Indiscriminate Weakness Opens Up Opportunities – September 5, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Whether weighted by equity or debt benchmarks, EM currency aggregates have given up all their 12-month gains relative to the U.S. dollar.



 

Emerging Markets Equities Report – The Fed Forgives, But Several Leaps Of Faith Still Required – July 11, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM equity investors are required to take several leaps of faith when looking at prospects for the year ahead.