Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021



Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

This report focuses primarily on the two issues: the outlook for the EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) asset class, and how investors should approach investment in Chinese government bonds.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.


Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.


Emerging Market Equities – 2021 Outlook: EM Growth Sizzles, Can Earnings Pop? – November 11, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The outlook for EM equities in 2021 hinges on their relative earnings outlook, which in turn will be determined by the prospects for a broad-based and reasonably synchronized global economic recovery.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.


Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio. 


Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.


Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Select High-Yield Plays Will Shine – August 25, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Local currency-denominated EM debt (EMLCD) offers attractive yields in a world where investors are challenged by generally richly-valued stocks and bonds, and low expected returns in the developed markets.


Emerging Markets – Liquidity Provides Latitude For Experimental Policies – August 21, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”


Emerging Markets Equities – Buying Growth, Or A Bubble, In China – July 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Investors in EM equities rarely face easy choices and the current circumstances offer a particularly challenging mix of risks and opportunities.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized · 

Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.


LatAm – Sifting Through The COVID-19 Rubble – June 10, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

Local currency-denominated bonds are the best LatAm play, and should be held at overweight within an EM local-currency bond portfolio.


COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can Post-Pandemic Asia Outperform? – May 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

We remain broadly constructive on the prospects for EM currencies to gain versus the U.S. dollar as North East Asian economies deliver a more successful post-pandemic reopening…


EM Equities – North Asia To The Fore Again – April 8, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Given the sudden stop nature of the global recession, and its potentially short-lived character (being driven by a pandemic response rather than economic factors)


COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – After The Virus… Recession Or Outperformance? – March 10, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Foreign exchange markets have seen volatility spike in recent weeks as investors grapple with the potential growth shock associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.


LatAm – Bonds And Rates Will Outperform – February 27, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

LatAm’s investment landscape beyond the short term will be characterized by a modest recovery in global trade and supportive global liquidity, all of which are positive for financial assets in the region.


Webcast – EM Equities: Still In Choppy Waters (7min:45sec) – February 12, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses positioning on EM stocks in a global equity portfolio.


Emerging Market Equities – Buy On (Viral) Dips, But Only Selectively – February 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

For the next several weeks, global investors may be mesmerized by the potential hit to global growth associated with China’s coronavirus epidemic.


Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Bonds: The Best Of The Credit Universe – January 21, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The outlook for EM local currency debt (EMLCD) can be summarized as “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”, but there are no steamrollers to be seen on a 6-12 month horizon.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Upgrade EM Currencies Versus The U.S. Dollar – January 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

A steady if unspectacular improvement in global trade momentum, along with supportive global liquidity, imply that conditions are ripening for the outperformance of an EM currency basket versus…


Emerging Markets Equities – 2020 EM Equity Outlook: “Another 2012”? – December 12, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Economic momentum in the EM world has been improving, and against a backdrop of softer global data is now superior to DM momentum for the first time since 2012.


Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Outperformance Can Continue Awhile – November 26, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The case for overweighting EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) in a global fixed income portfolio is straightforward.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – A Skinny Trade Deal Adds Comfort, Not Return – November 19, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

In a growth-challenged world, EM currencies are unlikely to escape the see-saw impact of global risk appetite, and will continue to maintain their negative correlation with the U.S. dollar.