Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021



Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.


MRB TradeBook Update – April 30, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Emerging Market Equities – When Global Trade Pops, EM Stocks Sizzle – April 29, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Recent EM underperformance is mostly attributable to the renewed vigor of stocks in the U.S., along with some idiosyncratic risks that have impacted mega-cap Chinese stocks.


Brazil – Upside For Stocks, But… – April 22, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

In stark contrast with the grim headlines, Brazil’s 12-month forward earnings growth has been on a tear in recent months.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt To Outperform, Even With Rising Global Bond Yields – April 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Three months ago we warned of short-term headwinds to EMLCD returns, while remaining confident of their ability to outperform within a global fixed income portfolio on a 6-12 month view.


Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Don’t Fear The Treasury Bear Market – March 23, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

In the midst of a burst of synchronized global growth, financed by Uncle Sam’s mega-stimulus, EM currencies stand to ride higher on a tide of investor risk appetite.


Emerging Markets – BRL Bonds: No More Bad News Left To Discount – February 23, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazilian assets have been severely punished in recent weeks as a series of negative developments, including last week’s government intervention in Petrobras


Webcast – Asian Outperformance Worsens EM’s Concentration Problem – (10min:08sec) – February 17, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB Strategist Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the appropriate positioning for emerging markets within a global equity portfolio


Emerging Market Equities – Asian Outperformance Will Drive EM To Irrelevance – February 11, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

“Be careful what you wish for” is the Aesop’s fable that applies to long-suffering EM equity investors, who have been waiting a decade for a sustained period of outperformance.


Emerging Market Equities – The Implications Of EM Stock Concentration – February 11, 2021
Emerging Markets · Equities · 

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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

This report focuses primarily on the two issues: the outlook for the EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) asset class, and how investors should approach investment in Chinese government bonds.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.


Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.


Emerging Market Equities – 2021 Outlook: EM Growth Sizzles, Can Earnings Pop? – November 11, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The outlook for EM equities in 2021 hinges on their relative earnings outlook, which in turn will be determined by the prospects for a broad-based and reasonably synchronized global economic recovery.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.


Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio. 


Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.


Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Select High-Yield Plays Will Shine – August 25, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Local currency-denominated EM debt (EMLCD) offers attractive yields in a world where investors are challenged by generally richly-valued stocks and bonds, and low expected returns in the developed markets.


Emerging Markets – Liquidity Provides Latitude For Experimental Policies – August 21, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”


Emerging Markets Equities – Buying Growth, Or A Bubble, In China – July 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Investors in EM equities rarely face easy choices and the current circumstances offer a particularly challenging mix of risks and opportunities.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized · 

Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.


LatAm – Sifting Through The COVID-19 Rubble – June 10, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

Local currency-denominated bonds are the best LatAm play, and should be held at overweight within an EM local-currency bond portfolio.


COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can Post-Pandemic Asia Outperform? – May 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

We remain broadly constructive on the prospects for EM currencies to gain versus the U.S. dollar as North East Asian economies deliver a more successful post-pandemic reopening…


EM Equities – North Asia To The Fore Again – April 8, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Given the sudden stop nature of the global recession, and its potentially short-lived character (being driven by a pandemic response rather than economic factors)


COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.