Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020



Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.


Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio. 


Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.


Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Select High-Yield Plays Will Shine – August 25, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Local currency-denominated EM debt (EMLCD) offers attractive yields in a world where investors are challenged by generally richly-valued stocks and bonds, and low expected returns in the developed markets.


Emerging Markets – Liquidity Provides Latitude For Experimental Policies – August 21, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”


Emerging Markets Equities – Buying Growth, Or A Bubble, In China – July 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Investors in EM equities rarely face easy choices and the current circumstances offer a particularly challenging mix of risks and opportunities.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized · 

Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.


LatAm – Sifting Through The COVID-19 Rubble – June 10, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

Local currency-denominated bonds are the best LatAm play, and should be held at overweight within an EM local-currency bond portfolio.


COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can Post-Pandemic Asia Outperform? – May 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

We remain broadly constructive on the prospects for EM currencies to gain versus the U.S. dollar as North East Asian economies deliver a more successful post-pandemic reopening…


EM Equities – North Asia To The Fore Again – April 8, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Given the sudden stop nature of the global recession, and its potentially short-lived character (being driven by a pandemic response rather than economic factors)


COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – After The Virus… Recession Or Outperformance? – March 10, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Foreign exchange markets have seen volatility spike in recent weeks as investors grapple with the potential growth shock associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.


LatAm – Bonds And Rates Will Outperform – February 27, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

LatAm’s investment landscape beyond the short term will be characterized by a modest recovery in global trade and supportive global liquidity, all of which are positive for financial assets in the region.


Webcast – EM Equities: Still In Choppy Waters (7min:45sec) – February 12, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses positioning on EM stocks in a global equity portfolio.


Emerging Market Equities – Buy On (Viral) Dips, But Only Selectively – February 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

For the next several weeks, global investors may be mesmerized by the potential hit to global growth associated with China’s coronavirus epidemic.


Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Bonds: The Best Of The Credit Universe – January 21, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The outlook for EM local currency debt (EMLCD) can be summarized as “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”, but there are no steamrollers to be seen on a 6-12 month horizon.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Upgrade EM Currencies Versus The U.S. Dollar – January 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

A steady if unspectacular improvement in global trade momentum, along with supportive global liquidity, imply that conditions are ripening for the outperformance of an EM currency basket versus…


Emerging Markets Equities – 2020 EM Equity Outlook: “Another 2012”? – December 12, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Economic momentum in the EM world has been improving, and against a backdrop of softer global data is now superior to DM momentum for the first time since 2012.


Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Outperformance Can Continue Awhile – November 26, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The case for overweighting EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) in a global fixed income portfolio is straightforward.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – A Skinny Trade Deal Adds Comfort, Not Return – November 19, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

In a growth-challenged world, EM currencies are unlikely to escape the see-saw impact of global risk appetite, and will continue to maintain their negative correlation with the U.S. dollar.


Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.


Emerging Markets Equities – The Tech Tide Turns, Will The Rest Follow? – October 10, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The rule of thumb for EM allocations in a global equity portfolio has been to look to global trade momentum as the key strategy signal. The current cycle is unique in this regard.


Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Growth Plus DM Liquidity: Goldilocks For Bonds – September 24, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Growth momentum in the emerging markets is lacklustre, but recession risks are low.


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Indiscriminate Weakness Opens Up Opportunities – September 5, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Whether weighted by equity or debt benchmarks, EM currency aggregates have given up all their 12-month gains relative to the U.S. dollar.