2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022


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2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – 2023 FX Outlook: Selectivity Will Be Key – November 29, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

A successful FX strategy in 2023 will entail a major change in tactics, as oversold and undervalued currencies are set to regain strength against the historically overextended U.S. dollar.



 

MRB TradeBook – Update On Risk-On Positioning – November 18, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.



 

Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Webcast – Elevated Inflation Has Made Central Banks Blindly Hawkish – (5min:00sec) – October 18, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, we discuss monetary policy based on last week’s MRB Research Highlight, that “tighter” monetary policy is still required in the developed world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.



 

Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.



 

Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.



 

Global Fixed Income – A Global Bond Market Riot Erupts – September 29, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The Bank of England has, temporarily, arrested a riot in the U.K. Gilt market that was threatening all major government bond markets.



 

Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
 · Equities · 

Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.



 

Webcast – Growth Concerns Are Driving Currencies – (11min:22sec) – September 27, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets, leveraging some of the research in this month’s global foreign exchange report.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – September 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Although a recession over the 6-12 months has not been our base-case scenario, the odds of this outcome are increasing and will continue to climb if the rise in interest rate expectations persists unabated.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Update Given Market Volatility – September 9, 2022
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk-On For Now, But Only If Bonds Stay Calm – August 19, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A cooling in inflation after the spike in the past year will prolong the pause phase in government bond markets. This, in turn, will support equities and credit in the coming months.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Adding Beta – August 12, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.



 

Global Fixed Income – A Volatile Consolidation – July 8, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

There is a great deal of uncertainty facing fixed-income markets which is reflected in the very elevated level of bond volatility.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession



 

Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets



 

Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks



 

Webcast – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Extended But Propped Up By Risk-Off – (7min:58sec) – June 21, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa provides our latest analysis of the U.S. dollar and global currency markets.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.



 

Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.