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Webinar – EM ex-China Behind The Wheel, China In The Backseat – (59min:33sec) – November 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek addressed the outlook for EM assets in absolute and relative terms over the coming 6-12 months.
Webcast – Developed Economies, Central Banks & Bonds: What To Expect In 2024? – (9min:37sec) – November 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for developed economies, central bank policies, and bond market performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.
2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy
Global Equities – How Long Can Goldilocks Last? – November 21, 2023
· Equities ·
Our constructive economic outlook provides scope for global equities to move higher in the near term…
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.
MRB TradeBook – Tweaking Some Positions – November 17, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsU.S. health care stocks have underperformed the broad market in recent days causing us… Continue
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.
MRB TradeBook – Some Tactical Changes – November 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro Will Continue To Appreciate Versus Weak-Link Currencies – November 7, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
While it has not been an easy year for the euro, the currency has still managed to appreciate versus key weak-link currencies, in line with our projections.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
Webcast – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – (7min:09sec) – November 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani looks at the outlook for emerging market equities.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…
Commodities – Modestly Higher Crude Oil Prices Ahead – October 27, 2023
· Commodities ·
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Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Emerging Market Equities – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – October 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Apart from some strong but short-lived bursts of outperformance, EM stocks have underperformed their DM (mainly U.S.) peers on a trend basis for a long time.
Absolute Return Strategy – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Theme – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
· Themes ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: More Tailwinds – October 17, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM economic growth momentum is firming, which is credit-positive and has been historically accompanied by tightening EM bond spreads.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – October 13, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe added some long energy positions in July based on our expectation that the… Continue
Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.
MRB TradeBook – Mini Replay Of 2022 – October 6, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe are making some changes to the MRB TradeBook in response to the recent… Continue
Charts – Are The Global Weak Links About To Snap? – October 4, 2023
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
We are highlighting a chartpack on global weak-link economies with household sector excesses, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.
Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
· Equities ·
Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…
Foreign Exchange – An Oil-Neutral Bet Levered To Europe: Long NOK/Short CAD – September 26, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have decoupled from the rebound in oil prices in recent months.
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Will EM Rate Cuts End The Party? – September 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies will appreciate versus the dollar as investors come around to MRB’s no US. recession view and shift their focus to positive EM domestic currency drivers, namely strengthening relative growth momentum.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.
Global Foreign Exchange – Distinguishing Between Winners And Losers – September 14, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has regained strength over the past two months supported by rising interest rate differentials and stronger relative growth on the back of a further unwinding of U.S. recession fears.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Global Equities – How Threatening Are Higher Bond Yields? – August 30, 2023
· Equities ·
Global equities have re-rated significantly this year even as G7 10-year government bond yields have risen.
Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Emerging Market Equities – Time To Rotate To EM ex-China – August 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For those who have no mandated exposure to EM and make an undifferentiated call on the EM aggregate, we are continuing to recommend an overweight in EM stocks within a global equity portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.
MRB TradeBook – Long Euro Area Financials Versus Its Benchmark – August 18, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops On Long Oil And Go Long Natural Gas – August 11, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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Global Fixed Income – Another Upwave In Bond Yields Is Inevitable – August 9, 2023
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
After a brief reprieve beginning late last year, bonds have faced further losses since May as economy bears were caught wrongfooted on calls for a recession.
Webcast – Gold Bulls: Beware Higher Real Bond Yields – (6min:41sec) – August 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses MRB’s outlook for gold prices in the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.
Webcast – EM Debt: Solid Growth And Rate Cuts Sustain Outperformance – (8min:52sec) – August 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Amr Abdel Khalek discusses the outlook for emerging market government bonds.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Stars Align For EM Local-Currency Debt – July 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Emerging market (EM) growth will accelerate over the next 6-12 months, driven primarily by EM Asia.
Commodities – Just Another Short-Lived Rally For Gold – July 26, 2023
· Commodities ·
Gold prices have rebounded modestly this month, and briefly neared the top end of their post-pandemic trading range…
Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Global Equities: Identifying Opportunities Among Major Non-U.S. Markets – July 25, 2023
· Equities ·
With all eyes recently on U.S. stocks, it is easy to miss important trends among the major non-U.S. markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Rate Cuts Are Coming – July 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
With conditions falling into place for a softening in the U.S. dollar’s cross rate with major DM currencies…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.
MRB TradeBook – Long Energy And Japanese Financials – July 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk-On Until Bond Yields Breakout – July 6, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks and investors have begun capitulating closer to our view that the cost of capital has not yet reached destabilizing levels.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…
Foreign Exchange – Interest Rate Differentials Are Not Helping The U.K. Pound – June 30, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
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Regional Equities – Mitigating Concentration Risk Across Regions And Sectors – June 29, 2023
· Equities ·
Global equity market concentration risk has increased anew following the recent outperformance of U.S. tech and AI-related stocks.
Emerging Market Equities – Get Ready To Rotate To EM ex-China – June 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The concept of a single “EM” asset class may well be out-dated (given that 60% of the index comprises China, Korea and Taiwan)…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.
Foreign Exchange – The AUD Could Receive A Temporary Boost, But Remains Structurally Challenged – June 9, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
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Commodities – Oil Prices: What A Difference A Year Makes – June 9, 2023
· Commodities ·
Add to Favorite ReportsEarly in 2022, the world faced a bleak outlook for energy, as the war… Continue
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.
MRB TradeBook – Euro Area Versus U.S. Equities – June 2, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsEuro area equities have come under significant more selling pressure compared to their U.S…. Continue
Webcast – Stay Selective With The U.S. Dollar – (8min:04sec) – June 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets based on the just-published global foreign exchange report.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Firming Growth And Rate Cuts Will Sustain Outperformance – June 1, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Firming growth (in the context of disinflation), especially in EM Asia, will improve credit risk of EM local currency debt (EMLCD) relative to DM peers.
Global Foreign Exchange – No Recession = A Short-Lived U.S. Dollar Revival – May 31, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has regained some strength in recent weeks on the back of the unwinding of oversold conditions and persistent recession fears that have led to a churning global stock market which has benefited defensive currencies.
Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Come For The Growth, Stay For The Rate Cuts – May 25, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The case for holding EM currencies is primarily predicated on their association with stronger growth and fewer risks to growth than their DM peers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Isn’t Over – May 19, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist over the summer.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Late Cycle: Leaning Against The Consensus Yet Again – May 18, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The economic expansion has matured, and the investment cycle is now late.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.
Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – May 5, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.
Global Equities – Banks Are A Key Tell For Equity Performance – April 28, 2023
Equities ·
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Webinar – Investing In EM: China? India? Or Neither? – (59min:17sec) – April 26, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Webinar featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing the outlook for EM investing.
Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.
Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.
Emerging Market Equities – It’s All About China, For Now – April 13, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In a world of constrained expectations and earnings counter-currents, EM stocks offer decent prospects for outperformance.
Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.
MRB TradeBook – Two New Equity Positions And One Closed Pair Trade – April 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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Foreign Exchange – Higher Interest Rates Will Snap The Weak Link Currencies – April 4, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
Weak-link economies are at increasing risk of experiencing a recession triggered by higher borrowing rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Back To Pre-SVB Levels? – March 31, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain constructive on global economic prospects for the next 6-12 months, and do not expect much fallout from this month’s banking problems.
Webcast – The Toppling Of Economic Dominos – (8min:26sec) – March 30, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar provides a contrast between the current macro environment compared to that of the 2010s.
Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Positioning – March 30, 2023
· Equities ·
Equity prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, but we expect the banking sector stresses to soon die down and for the global economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace.
Global Fixed Income – Snapping Weak Links – March 29, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
Volatility in the U.S. and G7 government bond markets has surged again in response to U.S. and European banking system strains.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Resilient And Poised To Outperform – March 23, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The return outlook for both EM local currency (EMLCD) and U.S. dollar debt may appear unappealing at first glance given how tight spreads are against their U.S. counterparts.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Tip Of The Iceberg, Or Only A Brief Interruption? – March 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-off backdrop could persist in the near term, until banking fears start to subside.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Better Growth Supports EM Currency Appreciation – March 16, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to see good odds of improving global growth conditions this year, with a reopening in China now gaining momentum…
Absolute Return Strategy – Interest Rate Normalization & Global Financial Stocks – March 15, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
There are still widespread recession concerns, entrenched optimism on much lower inflation, and investors are generally confused about where we are in the economic and investment cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.
Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Global Foreign Exchange – A Different Year For The U.S. Dollar – March 7, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S dollar decline has stabilized as of late on the back of a further rise in U.S. interest rates compared to other markets and related risk-off phase.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.
Emerging Market Equities – More Than Just A China Bounce? – February 28, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
With China’s earnings momentum already improving and a material economic rebound under way this year, Chinese stocks are well set to outperform their EM and DM peers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.
Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
· Equities ·
Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.
Webcast – Equity Dilemma: Stronger Economy Vs Higher Bond Yields – (10min:05sec) – February 22, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the major macro forces driving equities and bonds and narrows in on the current outlook for investment strategy.
Foreign Exchange – Gold Or Cryptos: Which One Is More Appealing? – February 21, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The pause in bond yields late last year encouraged global equity investors to embrace risk-on across the board…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.
Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
· Equities ·
There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…
Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.
Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.
Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.
Commodities – Upgrade As Headwinds Fade – February 3, 2023
Commodities ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe are upgrading commodities to neutral as China and the euro area regain economic… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.
Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2022 Review – January 24, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Goldilocks Favors EM Debt – January 19, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
For an investor whose only insight into the EM debt asset class is a chart plotting the spread between EM debt and U.S. Treasury bonds…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Will Break Free Of The Dollar’s Chokehold In 2023 – January 12, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a dizzying array of global economic forces that have dominated the EM currency landscape.
Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth
2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
· Equities ·
A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar
Weekly Macro Strategy – Global Economic Headwinds Easing – December 16, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some economic headwinds have recently eased, even as the major DM central banks have continued to hike their policy rates.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – December 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Theme – U.S. Treasurys: Rhyming (Inversely) With The 1980s – December 8, 2022
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
It is common for investor expectations and market pricing to persistently lag economic fundamentals at secular turning points.
Roundtable – 2023 Outlook For Emerging Market Investing – (60min:00sec) – December 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing MRB’s views for economic growth and asset markets in the emerging markets, covering the following topics:
2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.
2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…
Global Foreign Exchange – 2023 FX Outlook: Selectivity Will Be Key – November 29, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
A successful FX strategy in 2023 will entail a major change in tactics, as oversold and undervalued currencies are set to regain strength against the historically overextended U.S. dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.
Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Patience And Realism Required – (12min:48sec) – November 22, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns and the implications for strategic asset allocation over the next decade.
Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;
MRB TradeBook – Update On Risk-On Positioning – November 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.
Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.
Foreign Exchange – Favor The Euro Versus Currencies In Weak Link Economies – November 2, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The backdrop for the euro area could become much brighter than is currently anticipated…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…
MRB TradeBook Update – Tactically Adding More Beta – October 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Will Trump Dollar Debt – October 27, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Spreads for EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have come screaming in over the past three months
Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can EM Continue To Outperform DM (ex-U.S.)? – October 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is king. To be fair, this has been the case only for the fourth time since the early-1970s
Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
Webcast – Elevated Inflation Has Made Central Banks Blindly Hawkish – (5min:00sec) – October 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, we discuss monetary policy based on last week’s MRB Research Highlight, that “tighter” monetary policy is still required in the developed world.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.
Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.
Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.
MRB TradeBook Update – Financial Markets Approach A Critical Juncture – September 30, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Global Fixed Income – A Global Bond Market Riot Erupts – September 29, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
The Bank of England has, temporarily, arrested a riot in the U.K. Gilt market that was threatening all major government bond markets.
Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
· Equities ·
Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.
Webcast – Growth Concerns Are Driving Currencies – (11min:22sec) – September 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets, leveraging some of the research in this month’s global foreign exchange report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – September 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Although a recession over the 6-12 months has not been our base-case scenario, the odds of this outcome are increasing and will continue to climb if the rise in interest rate expectations persists unabated.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.
Emerging Market Equities – In Search Of Earnings Growth (At A Reasonable Price) – September 15, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Forward earnings growth is hard to find in the EM world, and is absent from three of its four major bourses
Global Foreign Exchange – Recession Fears Are Driving Currencies – September 14, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The dominant driver for FX markets shifted in recent months from interest rate differentials
Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.
MRB TradeBook Update – Update Given Market Volatility – September 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.
Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices
Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Stick With Selective High-Yielders – August 25, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Global inflation rates are mathematically certain to decline in the months ahead, thanks to base effects and lower energy costs.
Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
· Themes ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk-On For Now, But Only If Bonds Stay Calm – August 19, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A cooling in inflation after the spike in the past year will prolong the pause phase in government bond markets. This, in turn, will support equities and credit in the coming months.
MRB TradeBook Update – Protecting Some Profits – August 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Payback Versus Catching Up – August 12, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
As expected, U.S. inflation has rolled over and will decelerate in the coming months, which will boost the prospects for extending the global economic expansion.
MRB TradeBook Update – Adding Beta – August 12, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.
Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Mixed Messages – July 29, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
“Pause #2” in the cyclical bond yield uptrend is well advanced, and further downside in yields from current levels should be limited.
Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
· Themes ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Webcast – Dividends Matter – (8min:54sec) – July 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins examines dividends across global equity markets to provide support for equity portfolios in a turbulent investment climate.
Equities – Dividends Pay Dividends In Tough Times – July 26, 2022
· Equities ·
Dividends are an underappreciated factor in equity investing, especially when investors are anxious about the global growth outlook, as is the case today.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.
MRB TradeBook Update – Positioning Update – July 22, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
· Themes ·
The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Finding Shelter From The Dollar’s Chokehold – July 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The dominance of the U.S. dollar has become so pervasive in EM currency markets that allocations to EM offer very little diversification in a global currency portfolio
Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
· Equities ·
After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.
Global Fixed Income – A Volatile Consolidation – July 8, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
There is a great deal of uncertainty facing fixed-income markets which is reflected in the very elevated level of bond volatility.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession
Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Recession Or Resilience? – July 1, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Anxiety about the global growth outlook will persist in the near term, resulting in choppy capital market conditions and room for bond yields to retreat at least mildly further.
Emerging Market Equities – China’s Reopening Lifts EM, But For How Long? – June 30, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The long underperformance of EM has swung round into outperformance thanks to the desynchronized nature of Chinese economic momentum and its policy stance versus trends in developed markets (DM).
Commodities – Gold Over Crypto As Liquidity Boom Ends – June 28, 2022
· Commodities · Foreign Exchange ·
Although gold and bitcoin have been promoted as hedges against inflation and fiat currency debasement, there is still no clear correlation in the performance of the two.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets
Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
· Equities ·
The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks
Webcast – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Extended But Propped Up By Risk-Off – (7min:58sec) – June 21, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa provides our latest analysis of the U.S. dollar and global currency markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.
Equities – Global Earnings: Some Cracks Are Starting To Appear – June 10, 2022
Equities ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
· Themes ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth
Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
· Asset Allocation · Equities ·
The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.
Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Case For EM Debt Is In Relative, Not Absolute Terms – May 12, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The primary bogeyman for EM debt, both in its local currency (EMLCD) and hard currency (EM$D) variants, is a negative global growth shock.
Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.
Asset Allocation – Extraordinary Times – April 29, 2022
Asset Allocation · Equities ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Opportunity Lost, Or Just Delayed? – April 28, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Since the uncertainties unleashed by the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Adding Or Cutting Exposure? – April 26, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The euro has recently been weighed down by ongoing geopolitical turmoil within Europe, as well as the moderation in regional and global growth in response to the war in Ukraine.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.
Roundtable – Emerging Market Winners And Losers From The Russia/Ukraine War – (67min:04sec) – April 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing some of the geopolitical considerations arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.
Economy – Euro Area: Divergent Interest Rate Sensitivities – April 12, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
Euro area interest rate expectations are ratcheting higher as the ECB will unwind monetary accommodation to address the region’s elevated and rising inflation rate.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.
Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs Long Term Outlook – April 7, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The macro backdrop has been more supportive for the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies this year.
Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.
Emerging Market Equities – Fundamentals And Sentiment Diverge – March 31, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities is clouded by a lack of obvious earnings momentum, and although we still recommend holding it at overweight within a global equity portfolio, we see better opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in Europe.
Global Fixed Income – The Fed Plays Catch-Up – March 30, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
The sell-off in the global fixed-income market has been severe over the past several months, particularly for U.S. Treasurys.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.
Regional Equities – Post-War Performance Shifts Lie Ahead – March 24, 2022
· Equities ·
The war in Ukraine is a near-term wildcard, but our expectation of an ongoing global economic recovery…
Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.
MRB TradeBook Update – March 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Global Foreign Exchange – The Impact Of Geopolitics On FX Strategy – March 17, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The shunning of Russia from the global economy has heightened market volatility and created a dent in economic sentiment
Equities – Global Equity Energy Plays: What’s In The Price? – March 15, 2022
· Equities ·
Global energy stock prices are embedding a significant decline in crude oil prices
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.
MRB TradeBook Update – March 11, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Looking Beyond The 0-1 Geopolitical Bet – (10min:42sec) – March 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and investment strategy for the next 6-12 months in the context of the Ukraine war.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.
MRB TradeBook Update – March 4, 2022
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThe Ukraine war has weighed on two key euro area positions, causing us to… Continue
EM – Debt’s Russia Problem: Third Time A Charm? – March 2, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The restriction on Russian access to SWIFT and blocking sanctions on the foreign assets of the Bank of Russia (BoR – the central bank) has tipped Russian debt into what looks to be an inevitable slide toward technical default.
Economy – Assessing Total Inflation Risks In The Developed World – March 1, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The MRB Total Inflation Measure offers a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures within an economy by including other sources of inflationary/disinflationary pressures beyond consumer price inflation.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.
Roundtable – Russia/Ukraine And U.S. Elections: Navigating The Geopolitical Minefields – (67min:00sec) – February 23, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s Mehran Nakhjavani and Peter Perkins discussed two key geopolitical issues for global capital markets in this Roundtable, namely the Ukraine-Russia military threat and the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Breaking From The Dollar Yoke – February 22, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Distorting To Reflective To Restrictive – February 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cyclically bearish on bonds, although yields could soon pause; conditions are becoming technically stretched and U.S. rate expectations have already ratcheted higher.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Limited Downside And Improving Fundamentals – February 18, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
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Commodities – Oil Prices Frustrate Fundamental Investors – February 18, 2022
Commodities ·
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Webcast – COVID Fades: The Impact Of Reopening – (9min:03sec) – February 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses what the unwinding of the pandemic means for the global economy, policy, and investment strategy.
Fixed Income – ECB Pivot Pressures Periphery Debt – February 11, 2022
Fixed Income ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – End Of COVID And Free Money – February 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The two themes that will be crucial in shaping the global macro environment this year are the fading of COVID as a meaningful restraint on global mobilit
Webcast – The Ebbing Liquidity Wave – (9min:33sec) – February 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months highlight.
Theme – Central Banks Start Thinking About Thinking – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports After massively lagging the economic recovery and inflation, central banks across the developed… Continue
Theme – COVID Exiting: Service Sector Resurgence Ahead – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Omicron wave is fading rapidly, and a sense of relief and renewed… Continue
Foreign Exchange – Competitive Currency Appreciation Ahead – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
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Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity-Based Currencies: Where Are The Opportunities? – February 8, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
Developed commodity-based currencies have decoupled from the rebound in commodity prices in recent months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.
Webcast – The ECB Will Follow The Fed’s Pivot – (9min:04sec) – February 1, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses the next big central bank surprise, namely a pivot from the ECB, which will have major ramifications across asset classes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.
MRB TradeBook Update – January 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Foreign Exchange – FX Portfolio Insurance – January 28, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
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Equities – Mind The Credit Signal – January 28, 2022
Equities ·
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Euro Area – The Coming “Hawkish” Turn At The ECB – January 26, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
We expect the ECB will follow the Fed’s pivot later in 2022, and also begin the path to normalize policy thereafter.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.
Equities – Global Financials: Regional Opportunities In An Attractive Sector – January 21, 2022
Equities ·
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Emerging Market Equities – 2022 Outlook – January 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In the face of the self-inflicted deleveraging process hurting its property sector, China bucked the global trend and cut its policy rate this week, while at the same time directing fiscal stimulus towards fixed asset and infrastructure spending.
Absolute Return Strategy – A Choppy Transition – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Last year was largely characterized by risk-on, fueled by extremely accommodative global monetary and fiscal policies, and a massive liquidity wave.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2021 Review – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports Our macro-outlook for 2021 panned out well. Specifically, we correctly called for a… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Follow The Leader, But Also Watch The Laggards – January 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic growth will be more resilient and stronger than last decade, given the more accommodative policy backdrop and fewer structural drags (the end of deleveraging and fiscal austerity in the U.S. and euro area).
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – A Barbell Of Yield And Quality Will Outperform – January 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The traditional macro drivers of EM debt performance, namely credit quality, monetary policy, liquidity and overall growth conditions offer a mixed picture, with strong demand rebounds triggering rising inflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.
Regional Equities – 2022 Outlook: Baby Steps To A Regional Equity Rotation – December 23, 2021
· Equities ·
The macro backdrop for global equities will remain broadly supportive in 2022, but performance will be more volatile as global interest rates rise.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.
Global Foreign Exchange – Currency Strategy For 2022 – December 21, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report highlights MRB’s currency strategy for next year.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – 2022 EM Currency Outlook: Stay With Quality – December 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.
Global Fixed Income – The 2022 Fixed Income Outlook: Implications Of The Fed’s “Hawkish” Pivot – December 14, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
The key theme for global fixed-income markets in 2022 will be the capitulation to a less “transitory” and more resilient inflation and growth environment.
Policy – Emergency Monetary Policy Is No Longer Required – December 8, 2021
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the central banks in the developed world, as well as supporting charts.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.
MRB TradeBook Update – December 3, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Commodities – Oil Prices To Normalize In 2022 – November 30, 2021
· Commodities ·
It may appear counter-intuitive, given how much unused capacity persists among the world’s oil producers, but the world is currently experiencing an oil shortage.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.
Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns
Emerging Market Equities – Waiting For The China Bounce – November 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
This year’s powerful revival in global trade and overall demand usually would have been associated with strong EM stock performance
Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.
Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Asset Allocation – The Fate Of The 60/40 Portfolio – November 18, 2021
Asset Allocation ·
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Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.
Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets
Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt: Assessing Risks After The Binge – November 3, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
Public finances across the developed world have deteriorated markedly over the past 10-15 years, as government debt mushroomed to provide an offset for the Great Recession and then to offset the COVID-19 fallout.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Time To Focus More On Quality – October 28, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
It is relatively rare for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at the same time as Treasury yields rise
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).
Equities – Global Equities: More Bang For The Buck Than Perceived? – October 22, 2021
Equities ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.
Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.
Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.
Equities – Global Earnings: Sectors To Watch – October 15, 2021
Equities ·
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Global Fixed Income – Risks Are Stacked Against Bonds – October 12, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
G7 government bonds are still priced in line with the secular stagnation narrative from the 2010s and are out-of-sync with current macro trends.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.
Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy
Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.
Webcast – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – (7min:40sec) – September 29, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani highlights some of the key takeaways from last week’s MRB Emerging Market Equities Report
Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.
Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.
Emerging Market Equities – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – September 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The overall backdrop for EM equities remains broadly constructive, given the robust trade cycle, solid domestic demand and continuing liquidity support in the world’s leading economies.
Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.
Global Foreign Exchange – Strategy For Resilient Global Growth – September 16, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report highlights that our overarching macro view remains unchanged as we expect the global economy to surprise on the upside over the next year even as growth and trade moderate.
Euro Area – Inflation: Set To Pop Like The U.S. – September 14, 2021
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
Our latest research on the euro area reinforces our non-consensus view that global inflation is heading higher on a multi-year horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.
Webcast – Transitioning From Maximum Growth And Policy Thrust – (9min:37sec) – September 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the shifting macro and policy backdrop and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Will Get Tougher From Here – September 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Two important shifts in the macro climate over the next 6-12 months point to lower investment returns and more painful corrections, which will challenge current trends in capital markets.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Generous Spreads Belie Constructive Backdrop – September 2, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for holding emerging market local-currency denominated debt (EMLCD) is a simple one: the EMLCD spread (over Treasuries) has widened to levels consistent with economic stress
Foreign Exchange – Swiss Franc & Yen: Defensive Non-USD Insurance – August 31, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Angst about a potential setback in reopening due to the COVID-19 Delta variant is causing investors to question the global economic outlook.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Dollar Is Still King… Of EM FX Performance – August 26, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
While the ebb and flow of U.S. dollar sentiment will continue to tug at the performance of EM currencies, the overall global trade and economic backdrop over the next year will be supportive of modest dollar weakness
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative
MRB TradeBook Update – August 20, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Emerging Markets – Stuttering Growth May Buffet The Weakest EM Currencies – August 19, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Policymakers in developed economies have dismissed rising inflation as merely “transitory”, but their counterparts in the EM world have already embarked on a rate hiking cycle.
Webinar – The Inflation Debate: Where The Consensus Has It Wrong – (78min:25sec) – August 18, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Strategist Phillip Colmar and U.S. Strategist Prajakta Bhide.
Theme – Disputing Misplaced Narratives (Part II) – August 17, 2021
· Themes ·
Part I of this MRB Theme Report (published July 27) contrasted our view with some of the prevailing narratives related to the U.S. and global growth outlook.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade Ahead – August 13, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Sentiment remains upbeat in the major economies despite ongoing angst about the COVID-19 Delta variant.