Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022


europe

 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets



 

Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks



 

Webcast – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Extended But Propped Up By Risk-Off – (7min:58sec) – June 21, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa provides our latest analysis of the U.S. dollar and global currency markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth



 

Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.



 

Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets



 

Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.



 

Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.



 

Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Adding Or Cutting Exposure? – April 26, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The euro has recently been weighed down by ongoing geopolitical turmoil within Europe, as well as the moderation in regional and global growth in response to the war in Ukraine.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.



 

Economy – Euro Area: Divergent Interest Rate Sensitivities – April 12, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

Euro area interest rate expectations are ratcheting higher as the ECB will unwind monetary accommodation to address the region’s elevated and rising inflation rate.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.



 

Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs Long Term Outlook – April 7, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The macro backdrop has been more supportive for the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies this year.



 

Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Fed Plays Catch-Up – March 30, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The sell-off in the global fixed-income market has been severe over the past several months, particularly for U.S. Treasurys.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.



 

Regional Equities – Post-War Performance Shifts Lie Ahead – March 24, 2022
 · Equities · 

The war in Ukraine is a near-term wildcard, but our expectation of an ongoing global economic recovery…