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Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.
2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy
Global Equities – How Long Can Goldilocks Last? – November 21, 2023
· Equities ·
Our constructive economic outlook provides scope for global equities to move higher in the near term…
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.
Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro Will Continue To Appreciate Versus Weak-Link Currencies – November 7, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
While it has not been an easy year for the euro, the currency has still managed to appreciate versus key weak-link currencies, in line with our projections.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
MRB TradeBook – Navigating The Volatility Shift – November 3, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsShifts in both equity and bond volatility have triggered several changes in the MRB… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…
Absolute Return Strategy – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Theme – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
· Themes ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.
Charts – Are The Global Weak Links About To Snap? – October 4, 2023
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
We are highlighting a chartpack on global weak-link economies with household sector excesses, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.
Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
· Equities ·
Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…
Foreign Exchange – An Oil-Neutral Bet Levered To Europe: Long NOK/Short CAD – September 26, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have decoupled from the rebound in oil prices in recent months.
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.
Global Foreign Exchange – Distinguishing Between Winners And Losers – September 14, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has regained strength over the past two months supported by rising interest rate differentials and stronger relative growth on the back of a further unwinding of U.S. recession fears.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.
MRB TradeBook – Long Euro Area Financials Versus Its Benchmark – August 18, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.