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Webcast – The Center Will Hold – (11min:49sec) – September 11, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation on a 6-12 month horizon.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Powell Signals Green Light For Risk – September 6, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Equity markets have been in a sour mood this week, but the U.S. economic expansion will continue and the looming start of a Fed interest rate cutting cycle reinforces a pro-risk investment climate that is set to prevail on a 6-12 month horizon.
Global Foreign Exchange – Fed-Induced U.S. Dollar Weakness For Now – September 5, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The shift to increasingly dovish guidance by the Fed has translated into a narrowing of interest rate differentials with other currencies, leading to generalized U.S. dollar weakness in recent months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Asset Inflation Will Persist – August 23, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk-on should continue with DM central banks lowering rates while the global economy is already in decent shape and likely to improve.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Cooler Heads Prevailing – August 16, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic expansion remains intact and will benefit from aggressive DM rate-cutting expectations.
Weekly Macro Strategy – When The Dust Settles – August 9, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run financial market outlook is clouded by the abrupt souring in investor sentiment related to increased bearishness on the U.S. economic outlook.
MRB TradeBook – Three New Positions And Tightening Some Stops – August 2, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are several changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: New Positions… Continue
Global Fixed Income – Rate Cuts: Not Needed, But Coming In Any Case – August 1, 2024
· Fixed Income ·
Most developed market central banks maintain an overly depressed estimate of the neutral policy rate and are looking to ease over the next year (aside from the BoJ).
Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: Risks Are Skewed To The Downside – July 30, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has been range-bound for almost two years, albeit with some bouts of strength but only against interest rate-sensitive or weak-link currencies and the yen.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Reversals Of Fortune – July 26, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
What had looked likely to be a quiet balance of the summer has given way to new uncertainties in the forms of recent selling pressure among technology/A.I. stocks and the withdrawal of President Biden from the election this November.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Changing Stock Market Dynamics: The Start Of A Leadership Shift? – July 19, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The period of extremely thin equity market leadership may be ending, with a broadening in participation favoring select laggard sectors and global bourses.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Overbought Conditions Will Persist Until Bond Markets Weaken Anew – July 12, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A dovish Fed and another low-side CPI print will keep DM bond markets calm. The latter are supportive of credit and equity markets, despite overbought conditions.
Webcast – Summer Grind – (10min:16sec) – July 10, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Dog That Didn’t Bark – July 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The U.S. economy is downshifting from its prior brisk pace, but forecasts of an impending period of outright weakness or even recession are misplaced.
Absolute Return Strategy – Three Investment Themes – July 2, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
This report reviews three key long-term investment themes, including A.I. plays, beneficiaries of the global trade cycle, and areas where economic growth is likely to surprise either to the upside or downside.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Once Again: Don’t Short U.S. Consumers – June 28, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers on weakness of euro area equities and the euro. Lingering political risks are offset…
Webcast – Dealing With Equity Market Distortions – (11min:54sec) – June 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global equities and appropriate regional equity positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Euro Area Will Not Be Derailed – June 21, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
French politics have created a buying opportunity for regional equities and the euro.
Politics – France And The Euro Area: Plus Ça Change… – June 17, 2024
· Economics & Policy ·
French and euro area assets have been under pressure since President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise announcement to call snap elections…
Weekly Macro Strategy – (Finally) A Low-Side U.S. CPI Print, But Its Only A Temporary Reprieve – June 14, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s low-side U.S. CPI report followed high-side prints earlier this year, and is not indicative of the underlying trend. The latter is “sticky” and set to hold well above 2% in the coming year.
Global Foreign Exchange – Headed Into Generalized U.S. Dollar Weakness – June 11, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. economy remains resilient and growth concerns in May proved to be premature.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The End Is Not Nigh – June 7, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
While the catalyst for an end of the economic expansion is not yet in place, the investment landscape is likely to be choppy over the next 6-12 months…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Policy Rates, But Higher Bond Yields: This Won’t Last – May 31, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields are firming anew, which threatens the risk-on backdrop.
MRB TradeBook – One Big Winner, One Loser And One New Position – May 31, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN STOPS… Continue
Long-Term Returns – A Reckoning Is Inevitable – May 30, 2024
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This old saw is especially relevant as the macro drivers of strong capital market returns over most of the past 40 years no longer pertain.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Hope Versus Reality – May 17, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. inflation is proving stubborn, and holding well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Webcast – Favor Interest Resilient Vs Interest Rate Vulnerable Currencies – (6min:45sec) – May 15, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This week’s Webcast expands upon the main takeaways from last week’s foreign exchange research highlight…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Resilience, Rotation And Divergences – May 10, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy is slowly improving, led by the still-strong U.S. Although the DM weak-link economies have slowed, they are not yet signaling undue stress.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning In Choppy Energy Markets – May 10, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are a few changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN… Continue
Foreign Exchange – The Global Trade Upswing Supports Export-Driven Currencies – May 8, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
A revival in global trade has historically translated into currency appreciation for export-driven economies for both developed and emerging markets.
Webcast – The Economy, Not The Fed Will Drive Markets – (13min:02sec) – May 7, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Bank On Fed Rate Cuts – May 3, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Swings in expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to drive global capital market performance.
Absolute Return – Capitalizing On G7 Central Bank Missteps And Divergences – May 2, 2024
Absolute Return · · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
Many investors and strategists focus far too much attention on reading the proverbial tea leaves of central banks (particularly the Federal Reserve) to decipher how policymakers intend to shift interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Buckle Up: The Backdrop Will Be Challenging – April 26, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Remain underweight bonds within a multi-asset portfolio. Monetary conditions are not yet restrictive, as is evident by firming global growth.
Webcast – Sticky CPI Inflation Is Here To Stay – (7min:08sec) – April 25, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This week’s Webcastis an extension of a charts report published early this month. The report examined the trends in CPI in the developed world (DM)…
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Correction, But Not (Yet) A Bear Market – April 19, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk asset markets will remain under pressure until the Treasury market calms.
Policy – Memo To Central Banks: Mind The Output Gap – April 16, 2024
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
The output gap is a straight-forward and powerful economic concept—is current GDP above or below potential GDP?
Video – Secular Stagnation: A Disastrous Assumption – (16min:15sec) – April 16, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
One of the most damaging assumptions ever made by policymakers, especially the Federal Reserve, as well as the broader investment community, was that the world fell into Secular Stagnation in the 2010s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Maybe 5%, Not 4%, Is The New 2% – April 12, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A still robust U.S. economy and an improving global economic backdrop are positive for corporate profits and the global stock/bond ratio.
Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…
Charts – Assessing CPI Inflation In The Developed World – April 3, 2024
· Economics & Policy ·
This report examines the trends in CPI in the developed world and introduces the MRB CPI Diffusion Indexes (CPIDIs) for each of the G10 economies.
Regional Equities – Market Broadening Will Continue – March 28, 2024
· Equities ·
The latest dovish rhetoric from the Fed is a “green light” for risk taking and will support global equities in the near run, especially since global growth momentum is improving.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Long-Run Tailwind For Treasury Yields – March 28, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Signs of froth have emerged, but risk-on should persist until the next sustained rise in DM government bond yields develops, which we do not expect in the coming months.
Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Global Fixed Income – The Last Yield Anchor Lifts – March 26, 2024
· Fixed Income ·
G7 government bond yields have bounced meaningfully this year as investors paired back their expectations for deep central bank rate cuts.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Free Money Era Is Officially Over – March 22, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Further near-run upside is probable in risk asset markets.
Webcast – The Effects Of Higher Interest Rates On Currency Performance – (8min:12sec) – March 20, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This week’s Webcast covers the highlights of last week’s global foreign exchange report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Rate-Cutting Window Closes Another Notch – March 15, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Ongoing U.S. economic strength and an improving global economic outlook warn against complacency on the inflation outlook.
Global Foreign Exchange – Selective U.S. Dollar Underperformance – March 12, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has recently softened, after appreciating briefly in January and early-February.
Absolute Return Strategy – Time To Diversify – March 5, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The economic and policy environment remains supportive of pro-growth investments, but the rally is not without risks.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticky Inflation: Is 4% The New 2%? – February 16, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed et al have set themselves up for yet another pivot. The hoped-for return of inflation to 2% is not going to occur.
MRB TradeBook – Closed One Trade, And Added Two New Positions – February 16, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes in positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: NEW –… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…
Foreign Exchange – Taking The Pulse Of Weak-Link Currencies – February 1, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The list of weak-link currencies includes the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona and U.K. pound.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Downgrade Alert(s) – January 26, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. economic conditions do not warrant lower policy rates, and such conditions are not likely to develop in 2024.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks Is At Risk – January 19, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The front-running of DM policy rate cuts has eased only slightly of late, and is still far too aggressive relative to the economic/inflation outlook.
Absolute Return Strategy – From “Soft Landing” To “No Landing” – January 18, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The equity and bond market are both priced for a Goldilocks U.S. economic outcome that is unlikely to persist as the year progresses.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.
Weekly Macro Strategy – 2024: More Pivots Ahead – December 22, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase is stretched and due for a pause. However, a return to risk-off is unlikely until bond yields resume rising, which is still some ways off.
2024 Regional Equities Outlook – Banking On Better Breadth – December 21, 2023
· Equities ·
Our constructive economic outlook points to a period of catch-up for this year’s laggards, although it will likely take time to develop.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Demand, Corporate Profitability, And Inflation Are All Resilient – December 15, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The deceleration in DM inflation will peter out with underlying inflation still well above central bank targets if the global economic expansion rolls on, as we expect.
2024 Absolute Return Outlook – Focus On The Tails – December 14, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
2023 has turned out to be a rollercoaster for financial asset markets, with investors flipflopping on the recession call and outlook for policy rates.
Webcast – Focus On Diverging Macro Trends For FX Strategy In 2024 – (7min:33sec) – December 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses the big-picture macro theme for 2024 and its ramifications for foreign exchange strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Learning Curve – December 8, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The aggressive front-running of the next rate-cutting cycle is working at cross purposes to monetary policy and will prolong the expansion, as signaled by the sharp flip from risk-off to risk-on in recent weeks.
2024 Asset Allocation Outlook – A Maturing Cycle, But The End Is Not Yet Nigh – December 1, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
A global or U.S. recession is not yet in the cards for 2024, although the lifespan of the economic expansion is inevitably shortening.
2024 Foreign Exchange Outlook – A Less U.S. Dollar Centric Year – November 30, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has had a volatile year with the most recent depreciation wiping out all of this year’s gains.
Webcast – Developed Economies, Central Banks & Bonds: What To Expect In 2024? – (9min:37sec) – November 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for developed economies, central bank policies, and bond market performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.
2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy
Global Equities – How Long Can Goldilocks Last? – November 21, 2023
· Equities ·
Our constructive economic outlook provides scope for global equities to move higher in the near term…
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.
Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro Will Continue To Appreciate Versus Weak-Link Currencies – November 7, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
While it has not been an easy year for the euro, the currency has still managed to appreciate versus key weak-link currencies, in line with our projections.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
MRB TradeBook – Navigating The Volatility Shift – November 3, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsShifts in both equity and bond volatility have triggered several changes in the MRB… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…
Absolute Return Strategy – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Theme – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
· Themes ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.
Charts – Are The Global Weak Links About To Snap? – October 4, 2023
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
We are highlighting a chartpack on global weak-link economies with household sector excesses, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.
Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
· Equities ·
Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…
Foreign Exchange – An Oil-Neutral Bet Levered To Europe: Long NOK/Short CAD – September 26, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have decoupled from the rebound in oil prices in recent months.
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.
Global Foreign Exchange – Distinguishing Between Winners And Losers – September 14, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has regained strength over the past two months supported by rising interest rate differentials and stronger relative growth on the back of a further unwinding of U.S. recession fears.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.
MRB TradeBook – Long Euro Area Financials Versus Its Benchmark – August 18, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.
Global Fixed Income – Another Upwave In Bond Yields Is Inevitable – August 9, 2023
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
After a brief reprieve beginning late last year, bonds have faced further losses since May as economy bears were caught wrongfooted on calls for a recession.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.
Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Global Equities: Identifying Opportunities Among Major Non-U.S. Markets – July 25, 2023
· Equities ·
With all eyes recently on U.S. stocks, it is easy to miss important trends among the major non-U.S. markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.
Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”
Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…
Foreign Exchange – Interest Rate Differentials Are Not Helping The U.K. Pound – June 30, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Regional Equities – Mitigating Concentration Risk Across Regions And Sectors – June 29, 2023
· Equities ·
Global equity market concentration risk has increased anew following the recent outperformance of U.S. tech and AI-related stocks.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…
Foreign Exchange – The Euro Is Regaining Strength To Start The Summer – June 23, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.
MRB TradeBook – Euro Area Versus U.S. Equities – June 2, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsEuro area equities have come under significant more selling pressure compared to their U.S…. Continue
Webcast – Stay Selective With The U.S. Dollar – (8min:04sec) – June 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets based on the just-published global foreign exchange report.
Global Foreign Exchange – No Recession = A Short-Lived U.S. Dollar Revival – May 31, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has regained some strength in recent weeks on the back of the unwinding of oversold conditions and persistent recession fears that have led to a churning global stock market which has benefited defensive currencies.
Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Isn’t Over – May 19, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist over the summer.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.
Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.
Global Equities – Banks Are A Key Tell For Equity Performance – April 28, 2023
Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.
Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.
Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.
MRB TradeBook – Two New Equity Positions And One Closed Pair Trade – April 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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Foreign Exchange – Higher Interest Rates Will Snap The Weak Link Currencies – April 4, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
Weak-link economies are at increasing risk of experiencing a recession triggered by higher borrowing rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Back To Pre-SVB Levels? – March 31, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain constructive on global economic prospects for the next 6-12 months, and do not expect much fallout from this month’s banking problems.
Webcast – The Toppling Of Economic Dominos – (8min:26sec) – March 30, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar provides a contrast between the current macro environment compared to that of the 2010s.
Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Positioning – March 30, 2023
· Equities ·
Equity prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, but we expect the banking sector stresses to soon die down and for the global economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace.
Global Fixed Income – Snapping Weak Links – March 29, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
Volatility in the U.S. and G7 government bond markets has surged again in response to U.S. and European banking system strains.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…
MRB TradeBook – Protecting Profits During A Mini-Panic – March 17, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports The euro area financial sector came under intense selling pressure this week which… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Interest Rate Normalization & Global Financial Stocks – March 15, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
There are still widespread recession concerns, entrenched optimism on much lower inflation, and investors are generally confused about where we are in the economic and investment cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.
Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.
Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
· Equities ·
Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.
Webcast – Equity Dilemma: Stronger Economy Vs Higher Bond Yields – (10min:05sec) – February 22, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the major macro forces driving equities and bonds and narrows in on the current outlook for investment strategy.
Foreign Exchange – Gold Or Cryptos: Which One Is More Appealing? – February 21, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The pause in bond yields late last year encouraged global equity investors to embrace risk-on across the board…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.
Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
· Equities ·
There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…
Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.
Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.
Foreign Exchange – Euro: Digesting Its Early Gains – February 10, 2023
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.
Commodities – Upgrade As Headwinds Fade – February 3, 2023
Commodities ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe are upgrading commodities to neutral as China and the euro area regain economic… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.
Webcast – Euro Area Relative Earnings Have Tailwinds – (10min:18sec) – January 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins examines euro area corporate profits to help gauge the sustainability of recent euro area equity strength and global outperformance.
Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2022 Review – January 24, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.
Equities – Euro Area Earnings: Kicking Into Gear – January 17, 2023
· Equities ·
Prospective better economic growth augurs favorably for euro area corporate profits in aggregate and for key cyclical sectors.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.
Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth
2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
· Equities ·
A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar
Weekly Macro Strategy – Global Economic Headwinds Easing – December 16, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some economic headwinds have recently eased, even as the major DM central banks have continued to hike their policy rates.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – December 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Theme – U.S. Treasurys: Rhyming (Inversely) With The 1980s – December 8, 2022
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
It is common for investor expectations and market pricing to persistently lag economic fundamentals at secular turning points.
2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.
2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…
Global Foreign Exchange – 2023 FX Outlook: Selectivity Will Be Key – November 29, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
A successful FX strategy in 2023 will entail a major change in tactics, as oversold and undervalued currencies are set to regain strength against the historically overextended U.S. dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.
Equities – Encouraging Signs From The Euro Area – November 25, 2022
Equities ·
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Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Patience And Realism Required – (12min:48sec) – November 22, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns and the implications for strategic asset allocation over the next decade.
Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;
MRB TradeBook – Update On Risk-On Positioning – November 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.
Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.
Foreign Exchange – Favor The Euro Versus Currencies In Weak Link Economies – November 2, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The backdrop for the euro area could become much brighter than is currently anticipated…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…
MRB TradeBook Update – Tactically Adding More Beta – October 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.
Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
Webcast – Elevated Inflation Has Made Central Banks Blindly Hawkish – (5min:00sec) – October 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, we discuss monetary policy based on last week’s MRB Research Highlight, that “tighter” monetary policy is still required in the developed world.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.
Fixed Income – German Bunds: How High Will Yields Go? – October 14, 2022
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.
Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.
MRB TradeBook Update – Financial Markets Approach A Critical Juncture – September 30, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Global Fixed Income – A Global Bond Market Riot Erupts – September 29, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
The Bank of England has, temporarily, arrested a riot in the U.K. Gilt market that was threatening all major government bond markets.
Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
· Equities ·
Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.
Webcast – Growth Concerns Are Driving Currencies – (11min:22sec) – September 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets, leveraging some of the research in this month’s global foreign exchange report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – September 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Although a recession over the 6-12 months has not been our base-case scenario, the odds of this outcome are increasing and will continue to climb if the rise in interest rate expectations persists unabated.
Absolute Return Strategy – Higher Interest Rates Curb Risk Taking – September 23, 2022
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are facing renewed selling pressure and will continue to do so… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.
Global Foreign Exchange – Recession Fears Are Driving Currencies – September 14, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The dominant driver for FX markets shifted in recent months from interest rate differentials
Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.
Foreign Exchange – The Swiss Franc: Benefiting From European Angst – September 1, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
This year has been characterized by defensive currency positioning given heightened investor anxiety.
Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices
Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.
Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
· Themes ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk-On For Now, But Only If Bonds Stay Calm – August 19, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A cooling in inflation after the spike in the past year will prolong the pause phase in government bond markets. This, in turn, will support equities and credit in the coming months.
MRB TradeBook Update – Protecting Some Profits – August 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Payback Versus Catching Up – August 12, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
As expected, U.S. inflation has rolled over and will decelerate in the coming months, which will boost the prospects for extending the global economic expansion.
MRB TradeBook Update – Adding Beta – August 12, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.
Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Mixed Messages – July 29, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
“Pause #2” in the cyclical bond yield uptrend is well advanced, and further downside in yields from current levels should be limited.
Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
· Themes ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Webcast – Dividends Matter – (8min:54sec) – July 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins examines dividends across global equity markets to provide support for equity portfolios in a turbulent investment climate.
Equities – Dividends Pay Dividends In Tough Times – July 26, 2022
· Equities ·
Dividends are an underappreciated factor in equity investing, especially when investors are anxious about the global growth outlook, as is the case today.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.
MRB TradeBook Update – Positioning Update – July 22, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
· Themes ·
The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.
Foreign Exchange – Euro: Short-Term Negative, But Long-Term Positive – July 15, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
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Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
· Equities ·
After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.
Global Fixed Income – A Volatile Consolidation – July 8, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
There is a great deal of uncertainty facing fixed-income markets which is reflected in the very elevated level of bond volatility.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession
Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Recession Or Resilience? – July 1, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Anxiety about the global growth outlook will persist in the near term, resulting in choppy capital market conditions and room for bond yields to retreat at least mildly further.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets
Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
· Equities ·
The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks
Webcast – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Extended But Propped Up By Risk-Off – (7min:58sec) – June 21, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa provides our latest analysis of the U.S. dollar and global currency markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.
Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
· Themes ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth
Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
· Asset Allocation · Equities ·
The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.
Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.
Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Adding Or Cutting Exposure? – April 26, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The euro has recently been weighed down by ongoing geopolitical turmoil within Europe, as well as the moderation in regional and global growth in response to the war in Ukraine.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.
Economy – Euro Area: Divergent Interest Rate Sensitivities – April 12, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
Euro area interest rate expectations are ratcheting higher as the ECB will unwind monetary accommodation to address the region’s elevated and rising inflation rate.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.
Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs Long Term Outlook – April 7, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The macro backdrop has been more supportive for the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies this year.
Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.
Global Fixed Income – The Fed Plays Catch-Up – March 30, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
The sell-off in the global fixed-income market has been severe over the past several months, particularly for U.S. Treasurys.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.
Regional Equities – Post-War Performance Shifts Lie Ahead – March 24, 2022
· Equities ·
The war in Ukraine is a near-term wildcard, but our expectation of an ongoing global economic recovery…
Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.
Global Foreign Exchange – The Impact Of Geopolitics On FX Strategy – March 17, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The shunning of Russia from the global economy has heightened market volatility and created a dent in economic sentiment
Equities – Global Equity Energy Plays: What’s In The Price? – March 15, 2022
· Equities ·
Global energy stock prices are embedding a significant decline in crude oil prices
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.
Policy – ECB Rate Cycle: Still On Track – March 11, 2022
Economics & Policy ·
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Webcast – Looking Beyond The 0-1 Geopolitical Bet – (10min:42sec) – March 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and investment strategy for the next 6-12 months in the context of the Ukraine war.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.
EM – Debt’s Russia Problem: Third Time A Charm? – March 2, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The restriction on Russian access to SWIFT and blocking sanctions on the foreign assets of the Bank of Russia (BoR – the central bank) has tipped Russian debt into what looks to be an inevitable slide toward technical default.
Economy – Assessing Total Inflation Risks In The Developed World – March 1, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The MRB Total Inflation Measure offers a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures within an economy by including other sources of inflationary/disinflationary pressures beyond consumer price inflation.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.
MRB TradeBook Update – February 25, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Roundtable – Russia/Ukraine And U.S. Elections: Navigating The Geopolitical Minefields – (67min:00sec) – February 23, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s Mehran Nakhjavani and Peter Perkins discussed two key geopolitical issues for global capital markets in this Roundtable, namely the Ukraine-Russia military threat and the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Distorting To Reflective To Restrictive – February 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cyclically bearish on bonds, although yields could soon pause; conditions are becoming technically stretched and U.S. rate expectations have already ratcheted higher.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Limited Downside And Improving Fundamentals – February 18, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – COVID Fades: The Impact Of Reopening – (9min:03sec) – February 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses what the unwinding of the pandemic means for the global economy, policy, and investment strategy.
Fixed Income – ECB Pivot Pressures Periphery Debt – February 11, 2022
Fixed Income ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – End Of COVID And Free Money – February 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The two themes that will be crucial in shaping the global macro environment this year are the fading of COVID as a meaningful restraint on global mobilit
Webcast – The Ebbing Liquidity Wave – (9min:33sec) – February 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months highlight.
Theme – Central Banks Start Thinking About Thinking – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports After massively lagging the economic recovery and inflation, central banks across the developed… Continue
Theme – COVID Exiting: Service Sector Resurgence Ahead – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Omicron wave is fading rapidly, and a sense of relief and renewed… Continue
Foreign Exchange – Competitive Currency Appreciation Ahead – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
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Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity-Based Currencies: Where Are The Opportunities? – February 8, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
Developed commodity-based currencies have decoupled from the rebound in commodity prices in recent months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.
Webcast – The ECB Will Follow The Fed’s Pivot – (9min:04sec) – February 1, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses the next big central bank surprise, namely a pivot from the ECB, which will have major ramifications across asset classes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.
MRB TradeBook Update – January 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Foreign Exchange – FX Portfolio Insurance – January 28, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
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Euro Area – The Coming “Hawkish” Turn At The ECB – January 26, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
We expect the ECB will follow the Fed’s pivot later in 2022, and also begin the path to normalize policy thereafter.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.
Equities – Global Financials: Regional Opportunities In An Attractive Sector – January 21, 2022
Equities ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – A Choppy Transition – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Last year was largely characterized by risk-on, fueled by extremely accommodative global monetary and fiscal policies, and a massive liquidity wave.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2021 Review – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports Our macro-outlook for 2021 panned out well. Specifically, we correctly called for a… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Follow The Leader, But Also Watch The Laggards – January 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic growth will be more resilient and stronger than last decade, given the more accommodative policy backdrop and fewer structural drags (the end of deleveraging and fiscal austerity in the U.S. and euro area).
Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.
Regional Equities – 2022 Outlook: Baby Steps To A Regional Equity Rotation – December 23, 2021
· Equities ·
The macro backdrop for global equities will remain broadly supportive in 2022, but performance will be more volatile as global interest rates rise.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.
Global Foreign Exchange – Currency Strategy For 2022 – December 21, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report highlights MRB’s currency strategy for next year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.
Global Fixed Income – The 2022 Fixed Income Outlook: Implications Of The Fed’s “Hawkish” Pivot – December 14, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
The key theme for global fixed-income markets in 2022 will be the capitulation to a less “transitory” and more resilient inflation and growth environment.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Prolonging The Cycle – December 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run COVID-19 related headwinds will act to prolong the economic cycle, but seem unlikely to derail the recovery, based on current information.
Policy – Emergency Monetary Policy Is No Longer Required – December 8, 2021
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the central banks in the developed world, as well as supporting charts.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.
Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns
Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.
Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.
Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets
Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt: Assessing Risks After The Binge – November 3, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
Public finances across the developed world have deteriorated markedly over the past 10-15 years, as government debt mushroomed to provide an offset for the Great Recession and then to offset the COVID-19 fallout.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).
Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.
Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.
Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.
Global Fixed Income – Risks Are Stacked Against Bonds – October 12, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
G7 government bonds are still priced in line with the secular stagnation narrative from the 2010s and are out-of-sync with current macro trends.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.
Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy
Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.
Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.
Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.
Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.
Global Foreign Exchange – Strategy For Resilient Global Growth – September 16, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report highlights that our overarching macro view remains unchanged as we expect the global economy to surprise on the upside over the next year even as growth and trade moderate.
Euro Area – Inflation: Set To Pop Like The U.S. – September 14, 2021
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
Our latest research on the euro area reinforces our non-consensus view that global inflation is heading higher on a multi-year horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.
Webcast – Transitioning From Maximum Growth And Policy Thrust – (9min:37sec) – September 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the shifting macro and policy backdrop and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Will Get Tougher From Here – September 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Two important shifts in the macro climate over the next 6-12 months point to lower investment returns and more painful corrections, which will challenge current trends in capital markets.
Foreign Exchange – Swiss Franc & Yen: Defensive Non-USD Insurance – August 31, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Angst about a potential setback in reopening due to the COVID-19 Delta variant is causing investors to question the global economic outlook.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative
MRB TradeBook Update – August 20, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade Ahead – August 13, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Sentiment remains upbeat in the major economies despite ongoing angst about the COVID-19 Delta variant.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.
Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.
Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
· Themes ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.
Equities – Global Earnings: Catch Up Or Stick With Mo? – July 30, 2021
Equities ·
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Euro Area – Equities: Sustainable Earnings Uptrend After A Lost Decade – July 27, 2021
· Equities ·
Extrapolating the euro area earnings outlook based on last decade’s performance is misguided.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.
Euro Area – Economy: Reasons For Some Optimism – July 22, 2021
· Economics & Policy ·
Investor expectations for the euro area have been depressed by a decade largely characterized by a disinflationary funk.
Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.
Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
· Themes ·
This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.
Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
· Equities ·
The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.
MRB TradeBook Update – July 2, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.
Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.
Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.
Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.
Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return ·
The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Key Gaps Are Closing/Widening – June 11, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While uber-dovish monetary policies will remain supportive of risk asset markets, the widening gaps between nominal GDP growth and core inflation versus policy rates are unsustainable.
Equities – The U.S. Will Bear The Burden Of A Global Minimum Tax – June 11, 2021
Equities ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.
Webcast – Cyclical, Rather Than Secular Support For Commodities – (10min:17sec) – May 19, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for commodity prices based on current valuations and prospective demand conditions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.
MRB TradeBook Update – May 14, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.
Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – As Good As It Gets – May 7, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The aggressive monetary and fiscal support of the past year helped bring forward and fortify the robust rebound in capital markets relative to underlying economic growth conditions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.
Fixed Income – A G7 Bond Yield Anchor Is Lifting – April 30, 2021
Fixed Income ·
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Equities – A Weaker Dollar Will Eventually Favor Unhedged Non-U.S. Equities – April 30, 2021
Equities ·
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Emerging Market Equities – When Global Trade Pops, EM Stocks Sizzle – April 29, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Recent EM underperformance is mostly attributable to the renewed vigor of stocks in the U.S., along with some idiosyncratic risks that have impacted mega-cap Chinese stocks.
Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.
Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.
Fixed Income – Will Low G7 Ex-U.S. Yields Cap U.S. Treasury Yields? – April 16, 2021
Fixed Income ·
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Equities – Euro Area: In Search Of Earnings Power – April 16, 2021
Equities ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.
Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.
Global Foreign Exchange – How Long Will U.S. Dollar Resilience Last? – March 30, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
The short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains mildly positive on the back of stronger relative growth (boosted by massive fiscal spending) and still oversold conditions (except versus the euro).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.
Regional Equities – The Window For Regional Rotation Opens Wider – March 25, 2021
· Equities ·
The massive U.S. fiscal stimulus will provide a major boost to the global economy and corporate earnings in markets and sectors highly geared to global trade.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.
Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.
Global Fixed Income – Challenging The “Lower For Longer” Bond Narrative – March 16, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
Hyper-accommodative monetary and fiscal policies combined with a significant upgrade in economic expectations have caused a rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields
Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.
Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.
Foreign Exchange – Understanding Digital Currencies – March 9, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a substantial bull market on the back of highly accommodative monetary policies as well as increased speculative activity, partly attributable to the pandemic.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.
Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.
Asset Allocation – Which Inflation Hedges Are Appealing? – February 25, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
We have regularly noted that there is scope for medium term upside in the years ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing An Anchor – February 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rebound in Treasury yields has spread abroad and has increased the odds of a correction in overbought risk asset markets.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.
Fixed Income – U.S. Yield Curve Steepening To Spread To Gilt And Bund Markets – February 12, 2021
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.
Global Equities – The Risks And Challenges Of Equity Market Concentration – January 28, 2021
· Equities ·
The dominance of the U.S. equity market complicates regional and sectoral equity allocations and results in historically high concentration of portfolios benchmarked to the global index.
Policy – Another Year Of Hyper-Accommodative Monetary Policy – January 27, 2021
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the major developed market central banks, as well as supporting charts.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.
Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity Currencies: The Good News Is Discounted – January 22, 2021
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent stall in U.S. employment trends underscores the need for rapid vaccinations to clear the path to a self-reinforcing global economic expansion.
Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.
Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2020 Review – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports2020 provided a rollercoaster ride in many financial asset markets, as investors were forced… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2021 – (83min:39sec) – December 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webinar, MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2021.
Regional Equities – Outlook 2021: Piecemeal Rotation – December 22, 2020
· Equities ·
The improving economic outlook is positive for equites overall, although it is already well-discounted in share prices (most notably in the U.S.).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.
Fixed Income – Euro Area: Scope For Higher Inflation Despite Euro Strength – December 18, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Equities – U.K.: Any Brexit Deal Will Help – December 18, 2020
Equities ·
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Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).
Equities – Global Equities: Excessive Long-Term Earnings Optimism – December 11, 2020
Equities ·
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Global Fixed Income – 2021 Outlook: Bond Supports Slowly Fade – December 10, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
We enter 2021 with a constructive pro-growth fixed-income positioning, albeit with measured return expectations.
Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.
Equities – Sustained Global Trade Is The Key To Unlocking Euro Area Earnings – November 27, 2020
Equities ·
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Equities – Global Equities: The Great Rotation (Part 1) – November 27, 2020
Equities ·
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Webcast – Is It Time For Financial Stocks? – (11min:28sec) – November 25, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global financial stocks following the release of the MRB Research Highlight:
“Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership” on November 18, 2020.
Policy – Global Monetary Policy Will Stay Very Accommodative – November 24, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The report is an annual study that compares the relative pressures facing the various central banks in the developed world.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.
Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
Global Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership – November 18, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Global financial stocks have enjoyed a solid bounce in recent weeks, breaking out of a trading range that had prevailed from June through October.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.
Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.
Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.
Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.
Economy – Second COVID-19 Wave Heightens Euro Area Economic Uncertainty – October 16, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
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Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.
Webcast – Equity Rotation: Stronger Global Growth Is The Necessary Condition – (10min:12sec) – September 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for performance across the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning in a global equity portfolio.
Global Fixed Income – The Reflationary Bridge And The Bond Market – September 25, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
U.S. and G7 government bond yields have traded in an extremely tight range of late as bond volatility has been crushed by global central banks through highly accommodative policies and strong forward guidance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.
Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
· Equities ·
A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.
Foreign Exchange – The Multi-Year Case For The Euro – September 22, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The recent spike in euro area daily cases of COVID-19 has reignited economic pessimism, which has triggered a risk-off phase and bounce in the dollar, halting the rally in the euro.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.
TradeBook Update – Euro Area Vs U.S. Equities – September 18, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.
Foreign Exchange – Is U.S. Dollar Weakness Nearly Over? – August 28, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Fixed Income – Government Bonds Crosscurrents: Higher Inflation Vs Anchored Policy Rates – August 28, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle: Did Policymakers Avoid A Final Flush? – August 20, 2020
· Themes ·
MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks as it provides a starting point when building a multi-year roadmap, and helps investors look for major inflection points.
Webcast – Selecting Euro Area Cyclical Sectors – (9min:17sec) – August 19, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for key euro area cyclical equity sectors. He expects cyclical sectors to outperform the euro area equity benchmark on a 6-12 month horizon, although selectivity is appropriate.
Euro Area Equities – Cyclical Earnings Recovery Opportunities – August 18, 2020
· Equities · Research Reports ·
Euro area traditional cyclical sectors, including consumer discretionary, industrials and materials should benefit from absolute and relative earnings upside over the next 6-18 months as the global economy recovers.
Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
· Themes ·
Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.
Equities – Swedish Equities: Trade Will Deliver Earnings Beta – July 31, 2020
Equities ·
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Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
· Themes ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: A Gradual Uptrend Ahead – July 24, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.
Economy – Euro Area: Households Add Resilience To Economic Recovery – July 17, 2020
Economics & Policy ·
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Foreign Exchange – Stick With The MRB Optimal FX Barbell Basket – July 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.
Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
· Themes ·
The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.
Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.
Foreign Exchange – SEK: Excesses And Weak Global Growth Are Headwinds – June 26, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Catalyst For A Regional Equity Rotation Is Not Yet In View – (9min:51sec) – June 24, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.
Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It All Comes Down To Employment And Job Security – June 19, 2020
· Uncategorized · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or churning phase for equities is probable in the near term, given the sharp rebound in prices this spring and likelihood that corporate profits will not be able to return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon.
Regional Equities – Greater Earnings Certainty Needed For A Major Rotation – June 18, 2020
· Equities ·
There are important crosscurrents in translating the macro landscape into regional equity positioning.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Cyclically Neutral, But Structurally Bullish – June 12, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Fixed Income – A Breakthrough For The Euro Bond – June 12, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Equities – Euro Area: Value Opportunity Depends On Earnings Prospects – June 12, 2020
Equities ·
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TradeBook Update – June 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Broadening Equity Rally, For Now – May 29, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity rally has spread beyond U.S. large-caps into lagging bourses and sectors.
Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.
Fixed Income – Are Negative Interest Rates Set To Become More Widespread? – May 22, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.
Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.
Foreign Exchange – The Prospects For Petro-Currencies Are Bleak – April 24, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – The Great Halt Of 2020 – April 23, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report compares the current economic fallout with the previous and concludes that another Great Recession is very unlikely.
Global Fixed Income – The Fed Has A Backstop For Everything – April 21, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
In response to the sharp COVID-19 economic fallout, the Fed has adopted an unprecedented set of stimulus measures with clear positive implications for fixed-income assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.
Fixed Income – Euro Area Bonds: The ECB To The Rescue – April 9, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.
Regional Equities – The Best Offense Is A Good Defense – March 26, 2020
· Equities ·
The uncertainty associated with COVID-19 and the countermeasures being taken to ameliorate it justify a conservative regional equity allocation in the near term.
Global Foreign Exchange – Impact Of COVID-19 On FX Strategy – March 26, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Given the uncertainty associated with the global health crisis, it is helpful to consider scenario analysis for FX strategy over the next 6-12 months.
COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.
Webcast – Calculated Assessments Amidst Heightened Uncertainty – (13min:20sec) – March 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Capital markets are struggling against the backdrop of an escalating COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain economic fallout from countermeasures to contain it.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.
Absolute Return – Profiting From A Defensive Stance – March 13, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports We shifted the aggregate MRB TradeBook from a modest pro-growth to a defensive… Continue
Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.
Webcast – COVID-19 And Investment Strategy (10min:09sec) – March 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest take on COVID-19 and how it will impact investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (19min:00sec) – February 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
. In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month, including the virus.
Euro Area – Gauging Euro Area Recession Risks – February 25, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report introduces the MRB Euro Area Recession Checklist Indicator (RCI), which is an economy-wide measure (incorporating 26 variables grouped into six broad categories) that is constructed based on the framework of the MRB U.S. Recession Checklist Indicator.
Webcast – Buybacks Are An Important Factor In The U.S. ROE Advantage (11min:53sec) – February 19, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins takes a close look at return on equity in the major markets over the past decade and highlights some important drivers and considerations for valuations.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.
TradeBook Update – Booking Profits – February 14, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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Foreign Exchange – Swedish Krona: Cheap, But Stay Selective – February 14, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Equities – Global Return On Equity: Looks Can Be Deceiving – February 13, 2020
· Equities ·
The U.S.’ 5% ROE advantage versus the global ex-U.S. benchmark certainly helps underpin the premium valuation on U.S. stocks, which in the case of the price-to-book ratio exceeds 100%.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.
Policy – Little Pressure On Monetary Policy This Year – February 6, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The challenge heading forward for policymakers will be for those markets facing housing and credit excesses that ultimately will limit, if not prevent, any monetary tightening.
Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.
Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.
Foreign Exchange – Be Selective With The Swiss Franc – January 24, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part IV): Regional Housing & Related Equities – January 17, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue
Fixed Income – Will Reduced Supply Drive Euro Area Bond Yields Lower? – January 17, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Equities – Euro Area Financial Stocks: German Fiscal Profligacy Needed – January 17, 2020
Equities ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – No Bust, No Boom – January 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).
Webcast – Geopolitically-Driven Digestion Phase (8min:20sec) – January 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for capital markets in 2020, including the implications of the latest geopolitical crisis on investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Great Year And A Great Decade: Can It Continue? – December 20, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We continue to recommend a mildly pro-growth investment stance across most asset classes.
Regional Equities – 2020 Outlook: Muted Earnings Upside – December 19, 2019
· Equities ·
An anticipated moderate rebound in global manufacturing and trade activity will not be enough for global ex-U.S. relative earnings to reverse the underlying downtrend versus the U.S. that has prevailed for most of this expansion.
Webcast – FX Strategy For 2020 (13min:31sec) – December 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this today’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the outlook for FX strategy in 2020.
Global Fixed Income – 2020 Outlook – December 17, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
Today’s report outlines our recommended fixed-income positioning for 2020.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Upbeat Global Hiring Plans: The Business Cycle Rolls On – December 13, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).
Equities – Euro Area Equities Still Face A Challenging Earnings Outlook – December 13, 2019
Equities ·
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Global Foreign Exchange – FX Positioning For 2020 – December 12, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report outlines our FX positioning in 2020. This year the U.S. dollar traded marginally higher on the back of weaker external growth and ongoing uncertainty associated with trade and politics.
Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part III): Commodities & Global Luxury – December 10, 2019
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias and focuses on… Continue
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part II): Yield Plays – December 3, 2019
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Consolidation Before More Upside? – November 29, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The resilience of the consumer sector bodes well for the U.S. economic outlook.
Webcast – Dividends For The Long Run (8min:24sec) – November 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins examines global dividends and their potential contribution to equity returns in the years ahead.
Equities – The Lure Of Dividends – November 26, 2019
· Equities ·
Current dividend yields on equities are compelling compared with the extraordinarily low yields available on long-term government bonds.
Fixed Income – G7 Government Bond Yields: Countertrend Bounce Or Further Upside? – November 22, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.
Weekly Macro Strategy – FOMO Versus A Challenging Earnings Outlook – November 15, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity should gradually improve in the coming year, but much strongergrowth is highly unlikely.
Webcast – Taking The Pulse Of Monetary Policy (13min:26sec) – November 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar discuss the highlights from MRB’s latest in-depth research on pressures facing various central banks in the developed world.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Worries Recede Further – November 8, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stability in manufacturing PMI surveys and the recent easing in trade tensions have spurred higher equity prices and bond yields.
Absolute Return – MRB TradeBook Update – November 8, 2019
Absolute Return ·
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Foreign Exchange – Believe In The Euro – November 8, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Equities – Global Equities: In The End, It Is All About Earnings – November 8, 2019
Equities ·
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Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Euro Area – Economy: Weak But Resilient – November 5, 2019
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report updates our euro area economic outlook and focuses on two key topics that are crucial to the euro area, namely the global auto industry and the German labor market.
Asset Allocation Strategy – No Recession, But Not Much Growth Ahead – November 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
We expect the economic expansion to continue, but there is little basis for concluding a robust rebound in activity and profits looms over the next year that would justify a decidedly pro-growth investment posture.
Policy – Gauging Relative Monetary Policy Pressures: It’s All About The Fed – October 31, 2019
· Economics & Policy ·
Monetary policy pressures in the developed world have diminished substantially this year due to trade-related uncertainty and global manufacturing weakness.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Turn In Manufacturing – October 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Non-U.S. equities have perked up, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity will keep a lid on equity prices and bond yields.
Fixed Income – U.K. Gilts: Inflation Expectations Should Converge Lower With The U.S. – October 25, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.
Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.
Webcast – Still Scope For Another Upturn In The Global Earnings Cycle (11min:28sec) – October 23, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the earnings cycle across major markets, its key drivers, and the implications for equity prices.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Relief, But Risks Remain – October 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global trade and manufacturing indicators are still generally weak, and the protectionist backdrop will continue to hold back the global economy.
Fixed Income – France and Germany: Leading An Upleg In Government Bond Yields? – October 18, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Global Equities – An Old, But Not Fully Mature Earnings Cycle – October 15, 2019
· Asset Class Reports · Equities ·
The global earnings upcycle is advanced, but should continue in the sluggish growth environment we anticipate in the year ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bending, But Not Yet Breaking – October 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Trade policies and heightened domestic economic tensions continue to erode global economic sentiment, although not yet by enough to undermine the expansion.
Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Ugly Politics Carpets (So Far) Solid Floorboards – September 27, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The drip/drip of negative political developments risks undermining economic sentiment.
Regional Equities – Hewing Close To Home – September 26, 2019
· Equities ·
Only selective deviations from regional benchmark weightings have a favorable risk-reward profile in a global equity portfolio given the policy and economic backdrop.
Global Fixed Income – G7 Bonds: Priced For A Bleak Outlook – September 24, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
Our view has been that the race to negative bond yields pushed pricing too far this summer.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Absorbing Another Body Blow – September 20, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Better-than-expected U.S. growth and an upward creep in core inflation herald a pause in Fed easing.
Equities – Global Equities: Key Benchmarks To Monitor – September 20, 2019
Equities ·
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Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Highly Political World – September 19, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
Increased political uncertainty and trade threats have fueled financial market volatility, benefiting safe-haven currencies including the U.S. dollar. However, further upside for the dollar should prove limited.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Business Cycle Remains Resilient – September 13, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global hiring plans have stayed solid despite the downturn in manufacturing and trade, and service sector PMI surveys remain positive.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook
Asset Allocation Strategy – Profiting From Prudence – September 6, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Despite the potential allure of an aggressive cyclical bet, prudence warrants plotting a broadly neutral course for now.
Webcast – U.S. & Euro Area Bonds: Is Japan The Right Roadmap? (7min:23sec) – September 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Frank Petrocca discuss the collapse in government bond yields.
Theme – The Japanification Of The U.S. And Euro Area: An Economic Reality Check – September 3, 2019
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
A decade after the Great Financial Crisis erupted policy rates remain near historic lows and a record percentage of global bond markets have negative yields.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Third Time Lucky, Or The End Of The Cycle? – August 30, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investors should refrain from aggressive positioning on the basis of expected trade talk outcomes given the difficulty of forecasting President Trump/China’s next moves.
Equities – Euro Area Equities: Dividend Opportunities – August 30, 2019
Equities ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Is Trump Blinking? – August 23, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
President Trump appears to have heard the warning that his trade policy risks undermining his re-election prospects.
Foreign Exchange – The Swiss Franc: The Lucky Canary – August 23, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Bonds: The Non-Yielding Faith In Governments (8min:24sec) – August 21, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the collapse in government bond yields and provided perspective on how extreme current bond market pricing has become.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fearing Fear – August 16, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Rising protectionism remains the main global economic threat.
Global Fixed Income – The Race To Negative Bond Yields – August 13, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
Global bond yields have melted this year in response to an extreme dovish shift by the major central banks and a ratcheting up of trade tensions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.
Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).
Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It May Be Unnecessary, But… – July 19, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors remain wary of taking risk outside of U.S. large-cap stocks, implying that there is still considerable sidelined cash to buy equities – but only if economic confidence improves.
Foreign Exchange – The U.K. Pound Will Stay Weak Versus The Euro – July 19, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s A Grind – July 12, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed is committed to a rate cut later this month, and will stay dovish even after economic news improves.
Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.
Regional Equities – Limited Late-Cycle Beta Warranted – June 28, 2019
· Equities ·
The health of the global economic expansion will be the key driver of relative equity market performance in the year ahead, rather than valuations or monetary policy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.
Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.
Global Foreign Exchange – Making Selective Non-Dollar Bets – June 25, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
The global economy and investor expectations have been caught between the clash in policy forces of heightened trade tensions and further monetary reflation.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Binary Outcomes – June 21, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed has now shifted full-circle to the dovish side. However, the forward markets are too aggressive in terms of expected rate cuts this year, unless economic activity deteriorates meaningfully, which we do not expect.
Fixed Income – Coordinated G3 Policy Easing? – June 21, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Equities – Global Equities: Calibrating Downside And Upside Risk – June 20, 2019
· Equities ·
Our base-case scenario is that the global economic expansion will persist, with growth around potential, and manufacturing and trade activity firming modestly over the next 6-12 months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Crosscurrents Continue – June 14, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equity and credit markets remain caught between mounting trade tensions, and supportive monetary conditions and positive underlying corporate profitability.
Foreign Exchange – Australian Dollar: A Weak Currency Is Needed – June 14, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Fixed Income – Euro Area Bonds: ECB Provides Some Near-Term Support – June 14, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Equities – Switzerland: Shelter From The Storm – June 14, 2019
Equities ·
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Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.
Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
· Themes ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.
Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:07sec) – June 5, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide highlights from the MRB Annual Overview Of Key Macro And Investment Themes as well as a “roadmap” for investors to navigate the current global landscape.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.
Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy ·
The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – May 23, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Protecting Some Profits – May 17, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are protecting profits and downgrading equities to neutral within a multi-asset portfolio, following the powerful run-up in prices this year and recent escalation in trade tensions.
Fixed Income – Developed Commodity Markets: Stay Long – May 17, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Equities – An Aging Global Earnings Cycle Still Offers Upside – May 16, 2019
· Equities ·
The current economic expansion is the longest on record, if measured by the U.S. cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.
Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.
Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The Pain Trades Rolls On – April 26, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Central banks, including the Fed, will stay dovish until after better economic data arrives, which bodes well for equities and credit.
Equities – Euro Area Industrials: Tailwinds Will Persist – April 26, 2019
Equities ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Don’t Short U.S. Corporate Profits – April 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The improvement in the Chinese economy is gaining momentum, and will provide a lift to global activity and support risk asset prices.
Foreign Exchange – Swedish Krona: Cheap, But Structurally Challenged
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Monetary Reflation In A Deleveraging World (12min:30sec) – April 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The mechanics and impact of monetary policy have been heavily debated from the onset of the Great Recession and has heated up again since the Fed whipsawed investors with a massive pivot.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V – April 12, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. and global ex-U.S. equity prices should hit new highs given our expectation that the tentative turnaround in global trade and manufacturing activity will gain momentum.
Webcast – Signs Of An Economic Inflection Point (9min:18sec) – April 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Global Fixed Income – Did Treasury Investors Cry Wolf Again? – April 9, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
There has been a tendency by investors and central banks to overreact to softer economic data in recent years and prematurely forecast an imminent U.S. (and global) recession, much like the boy who cried wolf.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.
Theme – Monetary Reflation Simplified: Mapping The Limitations & Risks – April 2, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
In this report we explain a simplified framework and use the U.S. and euro area as examples to answer several frequently asked questions as well as address a few common misconceptions.
Foreign Exchange – Pairing Off Oil-Dependent Currencies – March 29, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Client Requests Of The Month (9min:19sec) – March 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Regional Equities Report – A Sustained Expansion Favors Cyclical Markets – March 26, 2019
· Equities ·
We expect equity prices to be higher over the next 6-12 months, albeit with periodic setbacks that will test nerves.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflation Top Up – March 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed added additional economic insurance this week, which will cap bond yields, but provide further fuel for risk asset prices.
Emerging Market Equities – A Narrowing Base, But Liquidity Is Forgiving – March 19, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
The case for overweighting emerging markets in a global equity portfolio rests on a narrowing base.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Tortoise Cycle – March 15, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The window of opportunity for further gains in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist for the next 6 to 12 months.
Fixed Income – ECB Policy Easing: A Modest Positive For The Euro Area Economy – March 15, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.
Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.
Foreign Exchange – Euro: Waiting For A Catalyst – March 1, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Euro Area Economy: Stronger Than Perceived (9min:23sec) – February 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Frank Petrocca provide their latest insights from a deep dive look at the euro area economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Flickers Of Life – February 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A calm bond market, sidelined central banks and good odds that corporate earnings will grind higher this year, all bode well for equities and credit.
Euro Area: Temporary Slowdown, Or More Ominous? – February 22, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Research Reports ·
The euro area economy has downshifted substantially over the past year, causing investors are increasingly worrying about another recession.
Fixed Income – German Bunds: Pricing In Too Bleak Of An Outlook – February 22, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Testing Times – February 15, 2019
· Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some key equity indexes are breaking above resistance levels and high-yield corporate bond spreads are narrowing, which bode well for risk assets.
Policy – Synchronized Moderation Temporarily Halts The Great Monetary Unwind – February 12, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S.-led gradual global monetary unwind has temporarily paused, with the Fed recently moving to the sidelines.
Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Global Fixed Income – Navigating The Cyclical And Secular Crosscurrents – February 6, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
This report analyzes the forces driving the recent drop in U.S. and G7 government bond yields and whether cyclical forces have shifted sustainably in support of bonds.
Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.
Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It’s Late, But Not Yet Over – January 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent equity market low (high in corporate bond spreads) should hold, but a re-test is still possible.
Foreign Exchange – Euro: Waiting For A Catalyst – January 25, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part II) – January 24, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second of a two-part MRB Theme Report that outlines several non-consensus views about the next global recession and environment
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.
Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Calmer Heads Prevail? – January 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk asset markets overreacted to a modest deterioration in the fundamentals in late-2018.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.
Webcast – Excessive Pessimism Priced In (10min:32sec) – January 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest asset allocation strategy, arguing that markets are discounting an overly bearish economic outlook in 2019.
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Precarious Footing – January 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets are discounting a pronounced further slowdown in global economic growth in 2019, with a significant probability of recession.
Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.
Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.
Regional Equities Report – Relative Performance Shifts Emerging – December 19, 2018
· Equities ·
Our view, as outlined last week in the MRB Weekly Macro Strategy, is that the global economic expansion will persist,
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – The Stealth EM Recovery Has (Patchy) Support – December 13, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
EM currencies have mounted a stealth recovery since late September, despite a sharp increase in risk aversion and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Global Foreign Exchange Report – FX Markets: 2019 Outlook – December 11, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar appreciated this year against most currencies, although only modestly despite most variables (including interest rate differentials and relative growth) favoring the currency.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.
Webcast – Stylized Investment Cycle: Navigating The Endgame (11min:42sec) – December 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Global equity markets are in turmoil, as investors are rapidly downgrading the growth expectations and starting to panic about the potential for a global recession.
Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle: Extended Topping Out Process – December 4, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since we introduced it to clients earlier this decade.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-Off Pressures Ease – November 30, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Worries that the Fed will prematurely turn restrictive have diminished, helping to calm the Treasury market.
Absolute Return Strategy – Global Economic Stool: Are The Legs Wobbly? – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been hit hard over the past few weeks, with global… Continue
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.
Theme – The Great Convergence: U.S. Vs Global Equities – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Equities · Themes ·
U.S. equity prices have surged this cycle relative to their non-U.S. counterparts by a magnitude that that has been on par with the 1990s economic expansion and equity bull run.
Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.
Webcast – DM Sovereign Debt Risks: Assessing Structural Vulnerabilities (9min:35sec) – November 14, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 14 after… Continue
Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt Risks: Are There Any Safe-Havens? – November 13, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
Mismanagement of public finances leaves several developed markets susceptible to sovereign debt strains when the next global recession eventually arrives.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back To Gridlock – November 9, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. politics will remain “noisy”, but should have an overall benign impact on the economy and financial markets.
U.K. – Gilts: A No-Win Secular Bet – November 8, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
The medium- and long-term outlook for longer-dated U.K. Gilts is extremely poor.
Theme – Persistent Undercurrent Of Political Instability – November 6, 2018
· Themes ·
One of our core macro themes over the past few years has been that many countries (including much of the developed world) have an undercurrent of social unrest, making them prone to heightened political instability.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Excessive Growth Anxiety – November 2, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Last month’s market reaction was largely overdone. That U.S. economic and earnings growth are in the process of peaking which goes without saying given that this year’s fiscal stimulus will fade in 2019.
Global Fixed Income – Normalization Vs Destabilization – November 1, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
Our view remains that government bond yields will move up in waves, with each successive wave higher exposing more unbalanced segments of the global economy that have become reliant on a permanently cheap cost of capital.
Webcast – The End Of Cheap Money: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (8min:57sec) – October 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). October 31 after… Continue
Theme – The Great Monetary Unwind: Who Will Join? – October 25, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
There has been a massive shift in global imbalances over the past decade as U.S. and euro area households (the previous weak links) restored their balance sheets
Webcast – Bond Yields, Choke Points & Relief Valves (12min:26sec) – October 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Financial markets have been shaken as investors have rapidly adjusted their expectations to reflect a higher bond yield environment.
Theme – Competitive Currency Devaluation Is Ending – October 23, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Competitive currency devaluation was an important theme in the years following the Great Recession when two major global growth engines needed reflating, namely the U.S. and euro area.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflective, Not Restrictive – October 19, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity market is at risk in the near run as investors grapple with the threat of rising interest rates and concerns about the economic outlook.
WMS – Economy & Policy – Italian Budget Proposal: Opening Salvo – October 19, 2018
Economics & Policy ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Bond Yields Reach A Choke Point – October 12, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Euro Italy Is A Headwind Again – October 12, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – A Fresh Test For Investors (8min:45sec) – October 10, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Bond Bear Bites Again – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
The abrupt breakout in U.S. Treasury yields over the past week caught many investors by surprise and sent shockwaves through financial asset markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bond Bear Growls – October 5, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The breakout in U.S Treasury yields represents a fresh challenge to a global economy that has been resilient this year, thanks to ongoing policy support and still-positive cyclical dynamics.
Webcast – Global Inflation: Gradual Upturn, Massive Ramifications (9min:55sec) – October 3, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
An examination of the forces that drive global consumer price inflation reveals a slow but profound shift in the longer-term underlying pressures over the past decade.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Message To The Fed: It’s Far From Over – September 28, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A dovish Fed may provide Treasurys with a brief reprieve. However, we remain bearish on bonds: the Fed will ultimately raise rates by more than expected.
WMS – Equities – Italian Equities: The Doom Loop Rises Again – September 28, 2018
Equities ·
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Theme – A Secular Upshift In Inflation (Part I) – September 26, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
There has been a profound yet extremely underappreciated upshift in the underlying pulse of global inflation over the past decade.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Is The Worst Over? – September 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
On/off trade worries are again receding, spurring a risk-on phase. The global stock/bond ratio has room to rise, as positive economic fundamentals will persist.
Regional Equities – Relative Extremes Cannot Be Sustained – September 20, 2018
· Equities ·
Global equities have diverged sharply this year, with the U.S. market roaring to new highs, while most non-U.S. benchmarks have faltered since hitting cyclical peaks early this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Opposing Forces – September 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Once again, there are glimmers of hope on the trade front. A meaningful easing in tensions would signal that the risk-on backdrop in the U.S. will spread abroad.
Charts – The Credit Cycle: Late But Too Soon To Abandon Spread For Quality – September 11, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
After nearly a decade of depressed G7 government bond yields and a global search for yield, there are very few remaining appealing opportunities within fixed-income markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Liquidity Fears Are Overdone – September 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Fears of a squeeze on global liquidity are increasing, as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and continues its grad
Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Surmounting The Hurdles (Yet Again) – August 24, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth has stabilized at historically solid levels, underscoring that conditions remain supportive of equity markets and bearish for bonds.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-On Or Risk-Off? – August 17, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Turkish meltdown should not have an escalating domino effect on the EM world, nor on overall global economic activity.
Global Foreign Exchange Report – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Looking Fatigued – August 13, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
Aggressive U.S. tariffs against Turkey last week, pushed the lira to a new historical low, and provided a lift to the dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Looking To Upgrade Equities – August 10, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Underlying economic and corporate earnings prospects are still positive, but an easing in trade tensions is needed to lift non-U.S. equity market sentiment.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Markets In Limbo – August 3, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets remain in limbo, with key equity, bond and currency benchmarks still largely range-bound.
Global Fixed Income – Lifting The Yield Anchors – August 2, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
G7 government bonds continue to digest their selloff in the first half of the year, but another wave higher in yields will begin later this year
Webcast – MRB Q&A: Top Questions From Clients (9min:35sec) – July 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins answers some of the key client questions we have recently received, ranging from the impact of trade protectionism on investment strategy to the outlook for gold.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – No Blinking So Far – July 13, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The trade war has not de-escalated. Thus, equity prices will remain at risk in the near run, and bond prices will stay supported.
Webcast – Will The U.S. Dollar Rally Continue? (6min:18sec) – July 11, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB provides some highlights about our investment stance on the greenback and whether the current rally will continue.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Churn Continues – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report revisits three topics that continue to be heavily debated and which we believe investors are focused inappropriately.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Economic Resilience Last? – June 29, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There have been conflicting messages from global financial markets, underscoring the uncertain investment landscape.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.
Regional Equities – Protectionism Threatens Export-Driven Markets – June 21, 2018
· Equities ·
An array of concerns has weighed on global equities since the January peak, most recently with the escalation of U.S. trade protectionist measures.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Hawks And Doves – June 15, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The U.S. economy is reaccelerating and we expect the Fed will lift its forecast for the longer-run equilibrium rate by yearend, given the ongoing upcycle in core inflation and wage growth.
Charts – Euro Area Equities: Earnings Tailwinds Still Intact – June 15, 2018
· Equities ·
The recent weakness in euro area equities will give way to another upleg to a fresh cyclical peak over the next 6-12 months.
WMS – Fixed Income – The ECB Is Being Extra Cautious – June 15, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Euro Area: Cyclical Vs Structural Outlook (13min:54sec) – June 13, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 13 after… Continue
Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part II): Structurally Flawed – June 11, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series which provides a broader perspective of the cyclical and structural crosscurrents facing the euro area.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Wobbly Leg? – June 8, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recent weakness in some euro area economic indicators should soon give way to stability.
Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part I): Cyclically Resilient – June 7, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Several headwinds have hit the euro area in recent months, making investors question if the steady improvements recorded last year have given way to something more ominous.
Webcast – Euro Area Equities: Struggling, But The Earnings Recovery Is Still On Track (7min:58sec) – June 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins digs into euro area equities to assess the outlook and gauge whether recent weakness represents an opportunity or a warning sign.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bet On Resilience – June 1, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The political crisis in Italy is the latest headwind for risk assets and the global economy
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Lot Of Churning – May 25, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty remain elevated, which will continue to hold back the global stock/bond ratio in the near run.
Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
· Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes ·
Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity Currencies: Range-Bound With Weakness Ahead – May 25, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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WMS – Fixed Income – Differentiating Between Euro Area Debt Markets – May 25, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Floors And Ceilings – May 18, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakout in U.S. bond yields and rebound in the dollar underscore that the U.S. policy/economic cycle still has momentum.
WMS – Equities – Euro Area Equities Getting A Lift From The Euro – May 18, 2018
Equities ·
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Webcast – FX Roadmap: What To Expect (9min:43sec) – May 16, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar focus on MRB’s latest thematic research and its implications for the U.S. dollar and major developed market currencies over the next few years.
Theme – The Trade And Reserve Currency Systems At Risk – May 15, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
The global trading system that is a holdover from the 1944 Bretton Woods conference has passed its sell-by date.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More Churning, But The Cycle Remains Intact – May 11, 2018
· Commodities · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. inflationary pressures continue to slowly build, and emergency-level interest rates outside of the U.S. are no longer warranted.
Foreign Exchange Report – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in the near run.
Theme – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Cash Is King – May 4, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The crosscurrents of a moderation in global growth momentum, combined with ongoing Fed rate hikes, rising U.S. inflation, and looming U.S. protectionist measures, portends continued churning in global capital markets in the near term.
Webcast – The Next Global Recession: The Canaries Are Coughing (8min:54sec) – May 3, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The U.S.-led government bond bear market has taken many investors by surprise this year, causing a shakeout in equities and increased market volatility.
Theme Report – The Next Global Recession: Watching The Canaries – May 2, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The world economy has transitioned from subdued and desynchronized growth with disinflation and emergency policy settings, to a faster paced expansion with gradually building price pressures, and a slow but steady unwinding of hyper-accommodative monetary settings.
Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Confidence Hold? – April 20, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is cooling after last year’s mini-boom, but a sizable slowdown is unlikely, provided trade tensions do not escalate.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – The Swedish Krona: Upside Will Now Be Limited – April 20, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Many Moving (i.e. Conflicting) Parts – April 6, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
A moderation in growth momentum, combined with additional Fed rate hikes and, more recently, the escalating trade battle between the U.S. and China, implies continuing market volatility and warrants near-term caution toward risk assets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More To Go – March 29, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Heightened geopolitical tensions and stock-specific woes in the tech sector will keep equity markets weak in the near run.
WMS – Equities – The Current Correction: It Is Different This Time – March 29, 2018
Equities ·
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Regional Equities – Heavy Weather – March 28, 2018
· Equities ·
There are crosscurrents for regional positioning in the near run compared with our base case 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Slippery Slope – March 23, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent risk-off phase was initially driven by rising bond yields, but now fears of protectionism have moved to the forefront. Barring an escalating trade war, we expect the pause in bond yields and correction in equity prices to reverse beyond the near run.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Favor The Norwegian Krone Over The Canadian Dollar – March 23, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Asset Allocation – Global Portfolio Performance: Fading Tailwinds – March 22, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
A major inflection point is underway for global multi-asset portfolios.
Global Fixed Income – G7 Bond Yields: Up In Waves – March 16, 2018
· Asset Class Reports · Fixed Income ·
Our view since late last year has been that the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would break through its early-2017 high, and then rise sharply toward 3% by the end of 2018 Q1.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Tug-Of-War – March 16, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rise in bond yields and equity prices is on temporary hold: growth momentum will slow a notch and protectionist concerns may keep some investors cautious, yet the cyclical buildup of inflation pressures will persist
Charts – The Great Monetary Unwind: Case By Case Basis – March 13, 2018
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed has led the global monetary unwind over the past couple of years, but an increased number of central banks have either joined or are preparing to do so in the months or year ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still In Flux – March 2, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity market correction has not yet run its course. On a positive note, the relative resilience of global financial stocks bodes well for another rally phase in the overall stock market
WMS – Global Politics – Italy: Status Quo Ante For Markets – March 2, 2018
Economics & Policy ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Fed Become Hemmed-In? – February 16, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Further near-run turbulence in risk asset markets is probable until bond yields plateau.
Foreign Exchange Report – The U.S. Dollar Is Lacking Friends – February 13, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports There is a case for a bounce in the U.S. dollar from oversold… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Transitioning To A New Era – February 9, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk asset prices will remain under pressure until bond yields stabilize. The latter… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The High-Wire Act Continues – January 26, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The backdrop remains bond-bearish. Meanwhile, technical and valuation measures are progressively deteriorating for equities, particularly in the U.S.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Stay Long The Euro Vs The Pound – January 26, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Charts – A Weak U.S. Dollar Will Benefit Non-U.S. Equity Markets – January 25, 2018
· Equities ·
The recent divergence between the performance of the U.S. dollar and regional equity market relative returns in common currency terms is unsustainable.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Into The Extrapolation Phase – January 19, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investors are discounting positive earnings trends well into the future, but have not yet made a parallel adjustment to their interest rate expectations.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 18, 2018
· Themes ·
This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy –Risk Assessment: It’s Still Too Soon To Bail – January 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic and policy outlook remains positive for risk assets and we remain moderately overweight equities versus government bonds in a multi-asset portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Betting Against the Consensus – December 22, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global stock/bond ratio has more upside, but mostly because bonds will generate negative returns rather than due to huge equity gains in 2018.
Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Favors Non-U.S. – December 21, 2017
Equities ·
The recent bout of U.S. market outperformance will gradually fade, with more cyclical markets including EM Asia, the euro area and Japan better positioned to take advantage of the late-stage economic expansion.
Webcast – MRB’s Best Long-Term Bets (7min:39sec) – December 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines several of MRB’s multi-year investment recommendations.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Another Small Step, But Staying Behind The Curve – December 15, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The U.S. and euro area economies continue to strengthen, which will sustain better global trade.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.
Charts – Euro Area Equities: Another Relative Performance Upleg Is Coming – December 14, 2017
· Equities ·
The recent disappointment of euro area equities should soon give way to another upleg given the solid economic and earnings outlook, along with strong policy support.
Webcast – What’s In Store For 2018 (8min:45sec) – December 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for the macro backdrop and the implications for capital markets in 2018.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Outlook For 2018 – December 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Strong returns for most risk assets combined with the advanced age of the U.S. economic expansion have many investors wondering to what extent dangers are building going into 2018.
Webcast – The Return Of Inflation: The Big Call For 2018 (10min:43sec) – November 29, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Prajakta Bhide provide MRB’s latest views on U.S. and global inflation. Highlights include:
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It All Comes Down To Inflation – November 24, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain near-run cautious on risk assets, but are still positive on the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon.
Global Fixed Income Report – November 22, 2017
Fixed Income ·
G7 government bond yields have consolidated for much of 2017, after peaking at the beginning of the year. Stronger global growth has not been sufficient to drive bond yields higher, partially because G7 core inflation has softened.
Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 10, 2017
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bond and equity correction looms as the inflation, policy and economic backdrop turns marginally less supportive. Moreover, high-yield corporate bond spreads have edged up lately, a potential warning sign for equities.
Webcast – It Will Be More Difficult Next Year (8min:07sec) – November 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 8 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – November 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports It’s been a banner year for investors. Global equity returns are 21% year-to-date… Continue
Webcast – The Disinflation Tailwind Has Passed (9min:23sec) – November 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for the major asset classes and examines the key economic, policy and valuations drivers.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – November 1, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes ·
This is the third MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 27, 2017
Asset Class Reports · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Both the ECB and the BoC confirmed that they remain keen to stay behind the economic curve, which is pro-growth and bullish for the global stock/bond ratio.
Long-Term Returns Report – October 26, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income ·
The coming decade will see an end to an era of steadily declining discount rates and the associated boost to asset valuations. Prospective returns for balanced portfolios will be middling by historical standards, accompanied by lower Sharpe ratios.
Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 20, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Prospects for the three legs in the global economic stool – the U.S., euro area and China – remain upbeat.
WMS – Equities – Euro Area Small Caps Still Have Room to Run – October 20, 2017
Equities ·
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WMS – Foreign Exchange – Positioning In Developed Market Commodity Currencies – October 20, 2017
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part II): The Next Wave – October 19, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series, updating our submerging world theme. Part I outlined the ramifications resulting from the mushrooming and subsequent erosion of this segment of the global economy over the past decade.
Switzerland – Will The SNB Join The Great Monetary Unwind? – October 13, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Research Reports ·
Swiss policymakers have struggled in recent years to set an appropriate policy mix for the overall economy.
WMS – Equities – Spanish Equities: Separation Anxiety – October 13, 2017
Equities ·
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Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 29, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shifting trends in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could create near-term capital market turbulence.
Webcast – Politics Vs Economics And Regional Equity Positioning (7min:58sec) – September 27, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest regional equity outlook and recommendations
Regional Equities (Quarterly) – September 21, 2017
· Equities ·
There has been a significant divergence in relative performance of regional equities recently because of U.S. dollar weakness.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 15, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk appetite measures confirm that investors have become optimistic, but financial stress gauges are still upbeat.
Theme – Market Impact If The U.S. Dollar Melts – September 14, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon. In the current environment of solid growth and easy monetary policy, it will take some combination of economically-damaging political turmoil, decisively higher bond yields and/or a material breakdown in the U.S. dollar to threaten equities.
Absolute Return Strategy – September 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 8, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-term turbulence in risk assets may persist given the tense political and geopolitical backdrop.
Webcast – Geopolitical Jitters: De-Risking Not Yet Warranted (6min:36sec) – September 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses asset allocation and investment strategy amidst the challenging political/policy backdrop.
Asset Allocation Report – September 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
An essentially quiet summer season (Northern Hemisphere) in capital markets has given way to renewed
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – August 31, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Whenever the U.S. dollar index weakens, the relative performance of any non-dollar asset… Continue
Global Fixed Income Report – August 30, 2017
· Fixed Income ·
In a world still starved for yield, small changes in relative interest rate expectations can have a disproportionate impact on foreign exchange markets.
Equities – German Equities: Don’t Sweat The Euro – August 10, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports The German equity market has disappointed over the past two months after a… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 21, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Recent currency strength may delay/mute the move by non-U.S. central banks to become… Continue
Webcast – Hawkish Bank Of Canada: Justified Or Problematic? (10min:11sec) – July 19, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). July 19 after 2:00… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 14, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Reduce bonds to maximum underweight within a multi-asset portfolio, while boosting cash to… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – July 13, 2017
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports The cyclical advance in the U.S. dollar is not yet over, but upside… Continue
Fixed Income – Impacts Of The Great Monetary Unwinding – July 11, 2017
· Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Macro support for bond bulls has been eroding steadily in recent years, a… Continue
Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – June 22, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports An increased number of central banks are feeling pressure to capitulate from an… Continue
Webcast – The Equity Market Rotation Lure (8min:06sec) – June 21, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 21 after… Continue
Regional Equities (Quarterly) – June 15, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports We remain constructive about the outlook for global equities, expecting prices to rise… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 19, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. political risks have increased and could trigger a risk-off phase. Equity leadership… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – May 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Chinese economy is starting to downshift, while investors are paring back their… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 12, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Near-run concerns aside, the 6-12 month outlook for the global stock/bond ratio is… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – May 11, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Webcast – A Political Bullet Dodged (10min:29sec) – May 10, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 10 after 2:00… Continue
Global Fixed Income Report – May 5, 2017
· Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Cyclical macro forces still point to higher G7 yields. The secular outlook for… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – May 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Expect further choppiness in the near term, but economic and policy conditions favor… Continue
Webcast – Politics, Politics And Markets: Near-Term Outlook (8min:24sec) – April 26, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). April 26 after… Continue
Geopolitics – The Likely Market Impact Of The French Elections – April 20, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The most market-friendly outcome in Sunday’s French election would be if Macron and… Continue
Webcast – DM Sovereign Debt Markets: Assessing Structural Vulnerabilities (7min:59sec) – April 19, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). April 19 after 2:00… Continue
Fixed Income – Assessing Developed Market Sovereign Debt Risks – April 13, 2017
· Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Mismanagement of public finances has left much of the developed world susceptible to… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 24, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The difficulty of legislating large policy changes in Washington is becoming apparent, setting… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 17, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are vulnerable to a correction in the near term, following recent… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 10, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global economic backdrop is brighter than has been the case for several… Continue
Emerging Markets – Eastern Europe: A High Beta Play On The Euro Area Recovery? – March 2, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Idiosyncratic factors have lowered the region’s beta to the euro area economy, and… Continue
Equities – Euro Area Bank Stocks (Part II): Sifting Through The Opportunities – February 28, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports There are significant disparities in equity earnings and valuation fundamentals across the major… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – February 24, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The MRB U.S. Recession Checklist Indicator remains at a low level. We are… Continue
Webcast – Euro Area Banks: Still Room To Run, But… (6min:26sec) – February 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 22 after… Continue
Equities – Euro Area Banks (Part I): Still Room To Run, But… – February 21, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Euro area banks offer significant upside potential, but current conditions warrant only a… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – February 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. high-yield corporate bonds will still generate positive absolute returns, but much of… Continue
Foreign Exchange – Swedish Krona: Poised To Benefit From Policy Capitulation – February 16, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Riksbank’s overly accommodative policy setting is becoming increasingly difficult to justify. The… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – February 10, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The consolidation in risk asset prices may persist, given overextended technical conditions and… Continue
Global Fixed Income Report – January 26, 2017
· Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Synchronized economic growth momentum is enough to justify a short duration bond stance,… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 13, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Maintain a mildly pro-growth investment stance, but be prepared for a further near-run… Continue
Theme – The Brexit Dominos – July 7, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.K. pound and domestic risk assets have been beaten up, but the… Continue
Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part III): Regional Assessment – June 15, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Aggressive U.S. policy reflation has been necessary to offset contractionary forces and encourage… Continue
Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part II): Breaking The Liquidity Trap – June 13, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The major central banks are still primarily focused on reflating by depressing interest… Continue
Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part I): Understanding Monetary Policy – June 9, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Monetary policy remains an essential part of any reflationary strategy, despite being somewhat… Continue