Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021


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Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.



 

Equities – Global Earnings: Catch Up Or Stick With Mo? – July 30, 2021
Equities · 

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Euro Area – Equities: Sustainable Earnings Uptrend After A Lost Decade – July 27, 2021
 · Equities · 

Extrapolating the euro area earnings outlook based on last decade’s performance is misguided.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Euro Area – Economy: Reasons For Some Optimism – July 22, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investor expectations for the euro area have been depressed by a decade largely characterized by a disinflationary funk.



 

Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.



 

Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
 · Themes · 

This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.



 

Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
 · Equities · 

The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – July 2, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.



 

Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.



 

Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return · 

The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Key Gaps Are Closing/Widening – June 11, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While uber-dovish monetary policies will remain supportive of risk asset markets, the widening gaps between nominal GDP growth and core inflation versus policy rates are unsustainable.



 

Equities – The U.S. Will Bear The Burden Of A Global Minimum Tax – June 11, 2021
Equities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.



 

Webcast – Cyclical, Rather Than Secular Support For Commodities – (10min:17sec) – May 19, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for commodity prices based on current valuations and prospective demand conditions.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – May 14, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2020
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.



 

Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue