Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part I) – December 16, 2021



Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part I) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

One of our core themes in 2021 has been that the global authorities have forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.


Webcast – Oil Supply Shortage Will Disappear In 2022 – (8min:27sec) – December 9, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses some issues relating to oil demand, supply and price expectations.


China – The Coming Consumption/Policy-Led Recovery – December 7, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

After an eventful year of widespread policy interventions that dragged growth from above-trend to its current below-trend pace, a modest policy stimulus is set to recalibrate China’s growth prospects in the months ahead.


Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.


Commodities – Oil Prices To Normalize In 2022 – November 30, 2021
 · Commodities · 

It may appear counter-intuitive, given how much unused capacity persists among the world’s oil producers, but the world is currently experiencing an oil shortage.


Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.


Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns


Emerging Market Equities – Waiting For The China Bounce – November 23, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

This year’s powerful revival in global trade and overall demand usually would have been associated with strong EM stock performance


Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.


Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.


Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets


Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets


China – The Rattle Of Regulatory Change Continues – November 4, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

2021 has been the year of regulatory change in China, starting with a forced deleveraging in the real estate sector, followed by a crackdown on very large internet-related stocks aimed at limiting monopolistic behavior, improving labor rights and protecting data privacy.


Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period


Latam – Narrowing Window Of Opportunity – October 28, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The underwhelming relative performance of Latin American (Latam) financial assets will persist in light of ongoing political/economic policy uncertainty


Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Time To Focus More On Quality – October 28, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

It is relatively rare for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at the same time as Treasury yields rise


Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).


Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.


Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.


Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue


Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.


Emerging Markets – EEMEA Equities: Any Juice Left To Squeeze? – October 14, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Emerging Markets Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EEMEA) index has been on a tear this year, driven by the near-parabolic rise in commodity prices.


Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.


MRB TradeBook Update – October 8, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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China – Policy Bandwidth Is Being Overwhelmed – October 7, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese policymakers were probably hoping to take their victory lap during last week’s national holidays, after reducing excess leverage and nipping a housing bubble in the bud.


Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.


Webcast – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – (7min:40sec) – September 29, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani highlights some of the key takeaways from last week’s MRB Emerging Market Equities Report


Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue


Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.


Emerging Market Equities – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – September 23, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The overall backdrop for EM equities remains broadly constructive, given the robust trade cycle, solid domestic demand and continuing liquidity support in the world’s leading economies.