Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022


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Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.



 

Emerging Markets – The Perfect Storm For Chinese Equities Will Pass – March 18, 2022
Emerging Markets · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – March 11, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Latam – Will Latam Win The Russia/Ukraine War? – March 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Russia/Ukraine war is undoubtedly a near-term headwind for Latin America’s financial assets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.



 

EM – Debt’s Russia Problem: Third Time A Charm? – March 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The restriction on Russian access to SWIFT and blocking sanctions on the foreign assets of the Bank of Russia (BoR – the central bank) has tipped Russian debt into what looks to be an inevitable slide toward technical default.



 

Russia – Becomes Uninvestable – March 1, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The sanctions announced in Europe on Saturday, including partial restrictions on Russia’s access to SWIFT and the freezing of the central bank’s (BoR) foreign assets will ultimately lead to Russian recession.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – February 25, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Roundtable – Russia/Ukraine And U.S. Elections: Navigating The Geopolitical Minefields – (67min:00sec) – February 23, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

MRB’s Mehran Nakhjavani and Peter Perkins discussed two key geopolitical issues for global capital markets in this Roundtable, namely the Ukraine-Russia military threat and the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Breaking From The Dollar Yoke – February 22, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat



 

Commodities – Oil Prices Frustrate Fundamental Investors – February 18, 2022
Commodities · 

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China – Limping Into The Tiger – February 8, 2022
Emerging Markets · 

Appropriately enough, as the world celebrates the lunar new year, both bravery and unpredictability are the Tiger’s hallmarks in the Chinese zodiac.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.



 

Emerging Market Equities – 2022 Outlook – January 20, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

In the face of the self-inflicted deleveraging process hurting its property sector, China bucked the global trend and cut its policy rate this week, while at the same time directing fiscal stimulus towards fixed asset and infrastructure spending.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – A Barbell Of Yield And Quality Will Outperform – January 13, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The traditional macro drivers of EM debt performance, namely credit quality, monetary policy, liquidity and overall growth conditions offer a mixed picture, with strong demand rebounds triggering rising inflation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.



 

China – Don’t Fight The PBoC – January 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Monetary policies will continue to diverge between China and other major economies, which will have a number of investment implications over the next 12 months.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Currency Strategy For 2022 – December 21, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights MRB’s currency strategy for next year.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – 2022 EM Currency Outlook: Stay With Quality – December 20, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part I) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

One of our core themes in 2021 has been that the global authorities have forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Webcast – Oil Supply Shortage Will Disappear In 2022 – (8min:27sec) – December 9, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses some issues relating to oil demand, supply and price expectations.



 

China – The Coming Consumption/Policy-Led Recovery – December 7, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

After an eventful year of widespread policy interventions that dragged growth from above-trend to its current below-trend pace, a modest policy stimulus is set to recalibrate China’s growth prospects in the months ahead.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.