MacroResearchBoard

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emerging-markets

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Goldilocks Favors EM Debt – January 19, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

For an investor whose only insight into the EM debt asset class is a chart plotting the spread between EM debt and U.S. Treasury bonds…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Will Break Free Of The Dollar’s Chokehold In 2023 – January 12, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a dizzying array of global economic forces that have dominated the EM currency landscape.

Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.

China – Re-Opening Is Palpable, If Not Yet Measurable – January 5, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

High frequency data and anecdotal evidence suggest that Chinese workers and consumers are shaking off the tsunami of infections arising from the sudden abandonment of the COVID-zero policy.

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.

2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
 · Equities · 

A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.

2023 China Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…

Roundtable – 2023 Outlook For Emerging Market Investing – (60min:00sec) – December 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing MRB’s views for economic growth and asset markets in the emerging markets, covering the following topics:

2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.

2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.

Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.

Emerging Markets – The Lula Pivot – November 18, 2022
Emerging Markets · 

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Commodities – Buckle Your Seatbelts: The Oil Market Is Re-entering Another Period of Instability – November 18, 2022
Commodities · Emerging Markets · 

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Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.

Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.

China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Will Trump Dollar Debt – October 27, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Spreads for EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have come screaming in over the past three months

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can EM Continue To Outperform DM (ex-U.S.)? – October 20, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is king. To be fair, this has been the case only for the fourth time since the early-1970s

Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue

Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.

Brazil – Defying Gravity – October 10, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazilian assets rallied after last week’s general election as the worst-case scenario for financial markets, in which former President Lula secures a first-round victory, was avoided. Therefore, the favorable relative growth backdrop which has been driving outperformance will remain intact.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.

China – Baby Steps To Evolving COVID-Zero – October 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

It may still only be a baby step, and by global standards it is a barely perceptible one.

Commodities – Oil Prices: From Shocks To Cyclical Analysis – September 30, 2022
Commodities · 

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