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emerging-markets
EM Equities – Why We Prefer EM Over U.S. Semiconductor Stocks – October 3, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
The close correlation between the performance of EM and U.S. semiconductor stocks during July’s sell-off in U.S.
China – PBoC Fires Its Bazooka, Banks Will Suffer The Collateral Damage – September 27, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Absolute Return Strategy – Extending Goldilocks – September 26, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Global monetary conditions have not been restrictive as is generally believed, nor were they a credible recessionary threat for the U.S. and global economy.
China – Don’t Fear “Chinese Deflation” – September 12, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
An entrenched negative narrative about China’s economy, together with manifest difficulties for steel, coal and cement producers reeling from the housing sector recession…
Webcast – The Center Will Hold – (11min:49sec) – September 11, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation on a 6-12 month horizon.
Emerging Market Equities – Earnings Are Outperforming, Prices Will Follow – September 10, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The stars are aligning for EM stocks, and we expect that several factors will combine and contribute to the outperformance of the asset class over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Powell Signals Green Light For Risk – September 6, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Equity markets have been in a sour mood this week, but the U.S. economic expansion will continue and the looming start of a Fed interest rate cutting cycle reinforces a pro-risk investment climate that is set to prevail on a 6-12 month horizon.
Geopolitics – Iran and Russia: Armageddon Delayed (Again) – August 16, 2024
· Economics & Policy ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – When The Dust Settles – August 9, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run financial market outlook is clouded by the abrupt souring in investor sentiment related to increased bearishness on the U.S. economic outlook.
MRB TradeBook – Material Swings In Volatility – August 9, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
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China – Stocks In A Funk Despite Earnings Turnaround – August 8, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
The Third Plenum came and went last month, with lengthy speeches about the economy and no actionable insight.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Reversals Of Fortune – July 26, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
What had looked likely to be a quiet balance of the summer has given way to new uncertainties in the forms of recent selling pressure among technology/A.I. stocks and the withdrawal of President Biden from the election this November.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Stick With High Yielders – July 25, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local-currency and U.S. dollar-denominated debt will resume outperformance within a global fixed-income portfolio.
China – Might Earnings Be Turning The Corner? – July 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
The PBoC now claims that it wants to see higher bond yields, although it is not obvious whether such an outcome is in their gift.
Webcast – Summer Grind – (10min:16sec) – July 10, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Dog That Didn’t Bark – July 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The U.S. economy is downshifting from its prior brisk pace, but forecasts of an impending period of outright weakness or even recession are misplaced.
Emerging Market Equities – Trade Recovery Will Sustain The Upside For Stocks – June 27, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Global trade is recovering, despite a rising tide of protectionism. EM stocks typically outperform when trade is strengthening…
Webcast – Dealing With Equity Market Distortions – (11min:54sec) – June 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global equities and appropriate regional equity positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Riding The Coattails Of Improving Global Trade – June 20, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM domestic growth and policy drivers are already supportive of EMFX, and many EM currencies have appreciated against the U.S. dollar over the past 12-18 months.
China – Economic Momentum Firms – June 13, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Investors taking note of the firming of China’s economic momentum will probably be rewarded by placing their bets on this recovery outside the country for the time being.
EM Elections – Smoke But No Fire, Yet – June 7, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
It has been a busy political calendar for emerging markets over the past week, with elections in India, Mexico and South Africa all delivering surprising results and sharp selloffs.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The End Is Not Nigh – June 7, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
While the catalyst for an end of the economic expansion is not yet in place, the investment landscape is likely to be choppy over the next 6-12 months…
Long-Term Returns – A Reckoning Is Inevitable – May 30, 2024
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This old saw is especially relevant as the macro drivers of strong capital market returns over most of the past 40 years no longer pertain.
Webinar – Emerging Markets: Navigating Global Cross Currents – (61min:41sec) – May 22, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
As the global trade cycle recovers and China’s growth firms, the backdrop for EM assets appears solid.
China – Stocks Rally Just As Earnings Fade – May 9, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
It is rare for the momentum of stock prices and of forward earnings to move in opposite directions, but the current rally in Chinese stocks appears to be led by domestic retail investors…
Webcast – The Economy, Not The Fed Will Drive Markets – (13min:02sec) – May 7, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Bank On Fed Rate Cuts – May 3, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Swings in expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to drive global capital market performance.
Emerging Market Equities – EM Stocks Will Outperform As Global Trade Recovers – April 25, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
With the level of imports rising in the U.S., China and Japan (albeit not yet in the euro area) a recovery in the global trade cycle is now a reality rather than a forecast.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Maybe 5%, Not 4%, Is The New 2% – April 12, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A still robust U.S. economy and an improving global economic backdrop are positive for corporate profits and the global stock/bond ratio.
China – Earnings Are Lagging The Economy – April 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
In the face of near-universal bearishness among the chattering classes overseas about its economic prospects…
Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Any Juice Left To Squeeze? – April 4, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local currency debt (EMLCD) and its US$-denominated counterpart (EM$D) have sharply outperformed U.S. and G7 government bonds over the past two years.
Regional Equities – Market Broadening Will Continue – March 28, 2024
· Equities ·
The latest dovish rhetoric from the Fed is a “green light” for risk taking and will support global equities in the near run, especially since global growth momentum is improving.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Long-Run Tailwind For Treasury Yields – March 28, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Signs of froth have emerged, but risk-on should persist until the next sustained rise in DM government bond yields develops, which we do not expect in the coming months.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – March 22, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe recommend tightening stops on our long EM Asian equities position (up 11%) to… Continue
Economy – China’s Merchandise Exports Are Recovering, Just As “Deflation” Disappears – March 22, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
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China – CSI 300 Stocks Are Stirring – March 7, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Although the U.S. stock market continues to outperform all its foreign competitors, including China, this performance has been driven by the extraordinary gains of a handful of mega-cap stocks that carry significant valuation risk.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…
Emerging Market Equities – The Stars Align For EM ex-China – February 22, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
What to do about cheap and unloved Chinese stocks? We recognize that many foreign investors have relegated China to “non-investable” status…
Global Economy – EM Asia’s Positive Economic Surprises: Harbinger Or Head-Fake? – February 9, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
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China – Defibrillator Applied To Equities, Again – February 8, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese policymakers have once again applied the defibrillator to stock market sentiment.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Downgrade Alert(s) – January 26, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. economic conditions do not warrant lower policy rates, and such conditions are not likely to develop in 2024.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Another Positive Year Ahead – January 23, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM government debt, both local currency (EMLCD) and US$-denominated (EM$D), handily outperformed their developed market (DM) counterparts last year…
China – Reform Chatter Fails To Inspire Investors (So Far) – January 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Two recent events have raised the prospect that Chinese policymakers might be inclined to bite the bullet on significant structural reform.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.
Weekly Macro Strategy – 2024: More Pivots Ahead – December 22, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase is stretched and due for a pause. However, a return to risk-off is unlikely until bond yields resume rising, which is still some ways off.
2024 Regional Equities Outlook – Banking On Better Breadth – December 21, 2023
· Equities ·
Our constructive economic outlook points to a period of catch-up for this year’s laggards, although it will likely take time to develop.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.
2024 Emerging Market Equities Outlook – Global Trade Revival Will Favor EM – December 19, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM stocks tend to outperform their DM peers when global trade is sturdy, and the first signs of an upturn in global exports are already evident in the bellwether Korean and Taiwanese economies.
2024 China Outlook – Steady Growth Ahead – December 7, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Although few headlines in the financial media reflect this, 2023 was a year of solid, if patchy, economic growth momentum in China, which is closing out well ahead of mid-year consensus expectations.
2024 Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Outlook – Clearer Skies Ahead – December 5, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
EM currencies were resilient this year in the face of several exogenous headwinds, including rising U.S. Treasury yields…
2024 Asset Allocation Outlook – A Maturing Cycle, But The End Is Not Yet Nigh – December 1, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
A global or U.S. recession is not yet in the cards for 2024, although the lifespan of the economic expansion is inevitably shortening.
Webinar – EM ex-China Behind The Wheel, China In The Backseat – (59min:33sec) – November 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek addressed the outlook for EM assets in absolute and relative terms over the coming 6-12 months.
Webcast – Developed Economies, Central Banks & Bonds: What To Expect In 2024? – (9min:37sec) – November 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for developed economies, central bank policies, and bond market performance.
2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.
MRB TradeBook – Tweaking Some Positions – November 17, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsU.S. health care stocks have underperformed the broad market in recent days causing us… Continue
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.
Global Economy – Is Global Trade Reviving? – November 10, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
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China – Growth: Half-Full, Or Half-Empty? – November 9, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Chinese household consumption is the new version of the analogy of the glass being half full or empty.
Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
Webcast – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – (7min:09sec) – November 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani looks at the outlook for emerging market equities.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…
Commodities – Modestly Higher Crude Oil Prices Ahead – October 27, 2023
· Commodities ·
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Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Emerging Market Equities – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – October 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Apart from some strong but short-lived bursts of outperformance, EM stocks have underperformed their DM (mainly U.S.) peers on a trend basis for a long time.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: More Tailwinds – October 17, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM economic growth momentum is firming, which is credit-positive and has been historically accompanied by tightening EM bond spreads.
China – Recovery Steps Up A Notch – October 12, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
What will it take for foreign investors to shake off their bearishness on Chinese assets?
Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.
MRB TradeBook – Mini Replay Of 2022 – October 6, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe are making some changes to the MRB TradeBook in response to the recent… Continue
Mexico – Deglobalization And The Peso: Fact Versus Fiction – October 3, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Shifts in global supply chains have been one of the main characteristics of the current era of multipolarity and deglobalization.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Will EM Rate Cuts End The Party? – September 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies will appreciate versus the dollar as investors come around to MRB’s no US. recession view and shift their focus to positive EM domestic currency drivers, namely strengthening relative growth momentum.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Global Equities – How Threatening Are Higher Bond Yields? – August 30, 2023
· Equities ·
Global equities have re-rated significantly this year even as G7 10-year government bond yields have risen.
Emerging Market Equities – Time To Rotate To EM ex-China – August 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For those who have no mandated exposure to EM and make an undifferentiated call on the EM aggregate, we are continuing to recommend an overweight in EM stocks within a global equity portfolio.
Webcast – Hopes Dashed By Lack Of A China Property Bailout – (5min:45sec) – August 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani ran through some recent developments in China which have triggered a material market reaction.
China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.
Webcast – EM Debt: Solid Growth And Rate Cuts Sustain Outperformance – (8min:52sec) – August 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Amr Abdel Khalek discusses the outlook for emerging market government bonds.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Stars Align For EM Local-Currency Debt – July 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Emerging market (EM) growth will accelerate over the next 6-12 months, driven primarily by EM Asia.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Rate Cuts Are Coming – July 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
With conditions falling into place for a softening in the U.S. dollar’s cross rate with major DM currencies…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.
MRB TradeBook – Long Energy And Japanese Financials – July 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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China – Undervalued And Unloved, But Undeniably Growing – July 13, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Second-quarter earnings results are about to start rolling in, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.
Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”
Emerging Market Equities – Get Ready To Rotate To EM ex-China – June 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The concept of a single “EM” asset class may well be out-dated (given that 60% of the index comprises China, Korea and Taiwan)…
EM Equities – Korea And Taiwan: AI-Phoria? Or Does The Rally Have Legs? – June 22, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Our upgrade of Korea within an EM equity portfolio in January proved timely insofar as Korean and Taiwanese stocks…
Webcast – China: Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – (7min:40sec) – June 21, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.
China – Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – June 15, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.
Commodities – Oil Prices: What A Difference A Year Makes – June 9, 2023
· Commodities ·
Add to Favorite ReportsEarly in 2022, the world faced a bleak outlook for energy, as the war… Continue
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Firming Growth And Rate Cuts Will Sustain Outperformance – June 1, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Firming growth (in the context of disinflation), especially in EM Asia, will improve credit risk of EM local currency debt (EMLCD) relative to DM peers.
Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Come For The Growth, Stay For The Rate Cuts – May 25, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The case for holding EM currencies is primarily predicated on their association with stronger growth and fewer risks to growth than their DM peers.
Webcast – China: Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – (7min:10sec) – May 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.
China – Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – May 11, 2023
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.
Webinar – Investing In EM: China? India? Or Neither? – (59min:17sec) – April 26, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Webinar featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing the outlook for EM investing.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.
Emerging Market Equities – It’s All About China, For Now – April 13, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In a world of constrained expectations and earnings counter-currents, EM stocks offer decent prospects for outperformance.
Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.
China – A “New” China: Growth Without Stimulus, Exports Or Housing – April 6, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
China’s reopening and economic recovery is finally observable in the hard economic data, rather than only from surveys.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Resilient And Poised To Outperform – March 23, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The return outlook for both EM local currency (EMLCD) and U.S. dollar debt may appear unappealing at first glance given how tight spreads are against their U.S. counterparts.
Theme – Making Money During China’s Demographic Decline – March 21, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
China’s official population count for 2022 was published in January and showed 9.6m births, outweighed by 10.4m deaths.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Better Growth Supports EM Currency Appreciation – March 16, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to see good odds of improving global growth conditions this year, with a reopening in China now gaining momentum…
China – Surveys Show Recovery, Hard Data Will Follow – March 9, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
“Soft” data from surveys are showing China’s robust recovery is underway, but the usual seasonal distortions in hard data make it difficult to calibrate the implications for overall economic momentum for the time being.
Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Emerging Market Equities – More Than Just A China Bounce? – February 28, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
With China’s earnings momentum already improving and a material economic rebound under way this year, Chinese stocks are well set to outperform their EM and DM peers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.
Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
· Equities ·
Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.
Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
· Equities ·
There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…
Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.
Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.
Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
China – Services Rebound, Broader Consumption Should Follow – February 9, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
The traditional travel boom during the Lunar New Year holiday period took place in January…
Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.
Korea – Export Recovery Papers The Cracks, For Now – January 26, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Korea’s equity market massively underperformed emerging market peers (EM), leaving valuations at extremely attractive levels…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Goldilocks Favors EM Debt – January 19, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
For an investor whose only insight into the EM debt asset class is a chart plotting the spread between EM debt and U.S. Treasury bonds…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Will Break Free Of The Dollar’s Chokehold In 2023 – January 12, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a dizzying array of global economic forces that have dominated the EM currency landscape.
Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.
China – Re-Opening Is Palpable, If Not Yet Measurable – January 5, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
High frequency data and anecdotal evidence suggest that Chinese workers and consumers are shaking off the tsunami of infections arising from the sudden abandonment of the COVID-zero policy.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
· Equities ·
A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
2023 China Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…
Roundtable – 2023 Outlook For Emerging Market Investing – (60min:00sec) – December 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing MRB’s views for economic growth and asset markets in the emerging markets, covering the following topics:
2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.
2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.
Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.
Emerging Markets – The Lula Pivot – November 18, 2022
Emerging Markets ·
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Commodities – Buckle Your Seatbelts: The Oil Market Is Re-entering Another Period of Instability – November 18, 2022
Commodities · Emerging Markets ·
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Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.
Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.
China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Will Trump Dollar Debt – October 27, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Spreads for EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have come screaming in over the past three months
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can EM Continue To Outperform DM (ex-U.S.)? – October 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is king. To be fair, this has been the case only for the fourth time since the early-1970s
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.
Brazil – Defying Gravity – October 10, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Brazilian assets rallied after last week’s general election as the worst-case scenario for financial markets, in which former President Lula secures a first-round victory, was avoided. Therefore, the favorable relative growth backdrop which has been driving outperformance will remain intact.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.
China – Baby Steps To Evolving COVID-Zero – October 6, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
It may still only be a baby step, and by global standards it is a barely perceptible one.
Commodities – Oil Prices: From Shocks To Cyclical Analysis – September 30, 2022
Commodities ·
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Global Fixed Income – A Global Bond Market Riot Erupts – September 29, 2022
· Fixed Income ·
The Bank of England has, temporarily, arrested a riot in the U.K. Gilt market that was threatening all major government bond markets.
Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
· Equities ·
Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.
Webcast – Growth Concerns Are Driving Currencies – (11min:22sec) – September 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets, leveraging some of the research in this month’s global foreign exchange report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.
China – Pragmatic Policy In Hibernation – September 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 until 1992, famously said “no matter if it is a white cat or a black cat, so long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat”
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Stick With Selective High-Yielders – August 25, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Global inflation rates are mathematically certain to decline in the months ahead, thanks to base effects and lower energy costs.
China – COVID-Zero Implies Continuing Economic Pain – August 4, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Prospects for a strong reopening recovery in China are evaporating in the face of the authorities’ obstinate attachment to a COVID-zero policy
China – What Reopening? China’s Recovery Will Be Modest – July 22, 2022
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Finding Shelter From The Dollar’s Chokehold – July 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The dominance of the U.S. dollar has become so pervasive in EM currency markets that allocations to EM offer very little diversification in a global currency portfolio
Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
· Equities ·
After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession
China – When Will Reopening Lift Earnings? – July 7, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
With signs of economic reopening, foreign investors have been piling back into Chinese stocks in recent weeks, having rushed for the exits in prior months during the peak of lockdowns.
Emerging Market Equities – China’s Reopening Lifts EM, But For How Long? – June 30, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The long underperformance of EM has swung round into outperformance thanks to the desynchronized nature of Chinese economic momentum and its policy stance versus trends in developed markets (DM).
Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
· Equities ·
The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks
Webcast – Chinese Lockdowns Creating Pent-up Demand – (8min:58sec) – June 15, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani examines the outlook for China’s economy and markets in the context of renewed lockdowns imposed on Beijing and Shanghai in recent days
China – The Stock Bounce Has Begun – June 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
A much-anticipated positive shift in sentiment towards Chinese stocks appears to have begun, supported by easier liquidity conditions
Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth
South Africa – Rand Bonds: Will SARB End The Party? – May 31, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
South Africa is one of the exceptions among the major EM bond issuers: its inflation has been much more modest than most emerging and developed market counterparts
Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
· Asset Allocation · Equities ·
The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.
Webcast – China: How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – (7min:47sec) – May 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for China’s economy and markets.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Case For EM Debt Is In Relative, Not Absolute Terms – May 12, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The primary bogeyman for EM debt, both in its local currency (EMLCD) and hard currency (EM$D) variants, is a negative global growth shock.
Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.
China – How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – May 5, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese stocks and its currency have been buffeted by the fallout from draconian lockdowns that have spread out from the major trade hubs of the country during the course of March and April.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Opportunity Lost, Or Just Delayed? – April 28, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Since the uncertainties unleashed by the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.
Economy – Ambitious China Growth Target Is Attainable, Implies Continuing Stimulus – April 22, 2022
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
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Roundtable – Emerging Market Winners And Losers From The Russia/Ukraine War – (67min:04sec) – April 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing some of the geopolitical considerations arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.
Emerging Market Equities – Fundamentals And Sentiment Diverge – March 31, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities is clouded by a lack of obvious earnings momentum, and although we still recommend holding it at overweight within a global equity portfolio, we see better opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in Europe.
Regional Equities – Post-War Performance Shifts Lie Ahead – March 24, 2022
· Equities ·
The war in Ukraine is a near-term wildcard, but our expectation of an ongoing global economic recovery…
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.
Emerging Markets – The Perfect Storm For Chinese Equities Will Pass – March 18, 2022
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.
MRB TradeBook Update – March 11, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Latam – Will Latam Win The Russia/Ukraine War? – March 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The Russia/Ukraine war is undoubtedly a near-term headwind for Latin America’s financial assets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.
EM – Debt’s Russia Problem: Third Time A Charm? – March 2, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The restriction on Russian access to SWIFT and blocking sanctions on the foreign assets of the Bank of Russia (BoR – the central bank) has tipped Russian debt into what looks to be an inevitable slide toward technical default.
Russia – Becomes Uninvestable – March 1, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The sanctions announced in Europe on Saturday, including partial restrictions on Russia’s access to SWIFT and the freezing of the central bank’s (BoR) foreign assets will ultimately lead to Russian recession.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.
MRB TradeBook Update – February 25, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Roundtable – Russia/Ukraine And U.S. Elections: Navigating The Geopolitical Minefields – (67min:00sec) – February 23, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s Mehran Nakhjavani and Peter Perkins discussed two key geopolitical issues for global capital markets in this Roundtable, namely the Ukraine-Russia military threat and the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Breaking From The Dollar Yoke – February 22, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Commodities – Oil Prices Frustrate Fundamental Investors – February 18, 2022
Commodities ·
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China – Limping Into The Tiger – February 8, 2022
Emerging Markets ·
Appropriately enough, as the world celebrates the lunar new year, both bravery and unpredictability are the Tiger’s hallmarks in the Chinese zodiac.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.
Emerging Market Equities – 2022 Outlook – January 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In the face of the self-inflicted deleveraging process hurting its property sector, China bucked the global trend and cut its policy rate this week, while at the same time directing fiscal stimulus towards fixed asset and infrastructure spending.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – A Barbell Of Yield And Quality Will Outperform – January 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The traditional macro drivers of EM debt performance, namely credit quality, monetary policy, liquidity and overall growth conditions offer a mixed picture, with strong demand rebounds triggering rising inflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.
China – Don’t Fight The PBoC – January 6, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Monetary policies will continue to diverge between China and other major economies, which will have a number of investment implications over the next 12 months.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.
Global Foreign Exchange – Currency Strategy For 2022 – December 21, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report highlights MRB’s currency strategy for next year.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – 2022 EM Currency Outlook: Stay With Quality – December 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part I) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
One of our core themes in 2021 has been that the global authorities have forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Webcast – Oil Supply Shortage Will Disappear In 2022 – (8min:27sec) – December 9, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses some issues relating to oil demand, supply and price expectations.
China – The Coming Consumption/Policy-Led Recovery – December 7, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
After an eventful year of widespread policy interventions that dragged growth from above-trend to its current below-trend pace, a modest policy stimulus is set to recalibrate China’s growth prospects in the months ahead.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.
Commodities – Oil Prices To Normalize In 2022 – November 30, 2021
· Commodities ·
It may appear counter-intuitive, given how much unused capacity persists among the world’s oil producers, but the world is currently experiencing an oil shortage.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.
Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns
Emerging Market Equities – Waiting For The China Bounce – November 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
This year’s powerful revival in global trade and overall demand usually would have been associated with strong EM stock performance
Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.
Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets
China – The Rattle Of Regulatory Change Continues – November 4, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
2021 has been the year of regulatory change in China, starting with a forced deleveraging in the real estate sector, followed by a crackdown on very large internet-related stocks aimed at limiting monopolistic behavior, improving labor rights and protecting data privacy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period
Latam – Narrowing Window Of Opportunity – October 28, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The underwhelming relative performance of Latin American (Latam) financial assets will persist in light of ongoing political/economic policy uncertainty
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Time To Focus More On Quality – October 28, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
It is relatively rare for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at the same time as Treasury yields rise
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).
Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.
Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.
Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.
Emerging Markets – EEMEA Equities: Any Juice Left To Squeeze? – October 14, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The Emerging Markets Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EEMEA) index has been on a tear this year, driven by the near-parabolic rise in commodity prices.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.
MRB TradeBook Update – October 8, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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China – Policy Bandwidth Is Being Overwhelmed – October 7, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese policymakers were probably hoping to take their victory lap during last week’s national holidays, after reducing excess leverage and nipping a housing bubble in the bud.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.
Webcast – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – (7min:40sec) – September 29, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani highlights some of the key takeaways from last week’s MRB Emerging Market Equities Report
Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.
Emerging Market Equities – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – September 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The overall backdrop for EM equities remains broadly constructive, given the robust trade cycle, solid domestic demand and continuing liquidity support in the world’s leading economies.
Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy
Global Foreign Exchange – Strategy For Resilient Global Growth – September 16, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report highlights that our overarching macro view remains unchanged as we expect the global economy to surprise on the upside over the next year even as growth and trade moderate.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.
MRB TradeBook Update – September 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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China – Redistribution, Not Stimulus, Is The Opportunity – September 9, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Investors are in danger of misconstruing two current developments in China.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Generous Spreads Belie Constructive Backdrop – September 2, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for holding emerging market local-currency denominated debt (EMLCD) is a simple one: the EMLCD spread (over Treasuries) has widened to levels consistent with economic stress
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Dollar Is Still King… Of EM FX Performance – August 26, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
While the ebb and flow of U.S. dollar sentiment will continue to tug at the performance of EM currencies, the overall global trade and economic backdrop over the next year will be supportive of modest dollar weakness
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative
Emerging Markets – Stuttering Growth May Buffet The Weakest EM Currencies – August 19, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Policymakers in developed economies have dismissed rising inflation as merely “transitory”, but their counterparts in the EM world have already embarked on a rate hiking cycle.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.
Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.
Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
· Themes ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.
Equities – Global Earnings: Catch Up Or Stick With Mo? – July 30, 2021
Equities ·
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Emerging Markets – EM Local-Currency Debt: Yield Is King – July 29, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The high-yielding segment of EM local currency bonds offers investors attractive absolute return and outperformance potential, even in the context of a rise in U.S. Treasury yields
Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.
Policy – China’s RRR Cut: Much Less Than Meets The Eye – July 16, 2021
Economics & Policy ·
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Emerging Market Equities – EM Bank Earnings Turnaround Offers Key Support – July 15, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM earnings momentum is picking up, and broadening beyond the semiconductor sector.
MRB TradeBook Update – July 9, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
· Equities ·
The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.
China – Back To Normal – July 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
While investors in the U.S. suffer bouts of anxiety over the first mutterings of a possible thought that the Fed may consider setting a date for the start of policy normalization, Chinese policymakers have already barged through the gates along this path
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.
Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.
Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.
Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.
Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.
Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return ·
The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.
China – The Recovery Phase Is Ending – June 8, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The post-pandemic phase of China’s economic rebound has been exceptionally strong, and current data suggests it is already in the early stages of ending.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.
MRB TradeBook Update – June 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.
Foreign Exchange – Has The Crypto Fever Broken? – May 25, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
While a bit controversial three months ago, we noted in March that the probability of a bust in cryptocurrencies was more likely than a continuation of the pandemic-induced exuberance (a view that panned out).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt Will Shine While The U.S. Dollar Softens – May 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Two key external drivers of EM bond returns will offer a constructive backdrop in the year ahead.
Webcast – Cyclical, Rather Than Secular Support For Commodities – (10min:17sec) – May 19, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for commodity prices based on current valuations and prospective demand conditions.
Commodities – Supercycle Narrative Is Off Base – May 18, 2021
· Commodities ·
A new commodity supercycle is not underway, and investors should expect middling or worse commodity price performance in real terms on a multi-year horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.
MRB TradeBook Update – May 14, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – When Uncertain, Prioritize Growth – May 13, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The overarching driver of EM currencies is global trade, which offers a strongly positive backdrop and will likely propel appreciation versus a softening U.S. dollar.
Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.
Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – As Good As It Gets – May 7, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The aggressive monetary and fiscal support of the past year helped bring forward and fortify the robust rebound in capital markets relative to underlying economic growth conditions.
China – Reawakened Consumers Underpin Growth – May 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
China is growing at a robust, above-trend growth, with concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic slipping into the distant past.
MRB TradeBook Update – April 30, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Equities – A Weaker Dollar Will Eventually Favor Unhedged Non-U.S. Equities – April 30, 2021
Equities ·
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Emerging Market Equities – When Global Trade Pops, EM Stocks Sizzle – April 29, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Recent EM underperformance is mostly attributable to the renewed vigor of stocks in the U.S., along with some idiosyncratic risks that have impacted mega-cap Chinese stocks.
Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.
Brazil – Upside For Stocks, But… – April 22, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In stark contrast with the grim headlines, Brazil’s 12-month forward earnings growth has been on a tear in recent months.
Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.
China – Capital Markets With Chinese Characteristics – April 8, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
China’s economic momentum remains strong and is broadening, and offers powerful support for a solid global expansion in output and trade.
Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt To Outperform, Even With Rising Global Bond Yields – April 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Three months ago we warned of short-term headwinds to EMLCD returns, while remaining confident of their ability to outperform within a global fixed income portfolio on a 6-12 month view.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.
Global Foreign Exchange – How Long Will U.S. Dollar Resilience Last? – March 30, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
The short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains mildly positive on the back of stronger relative growth (boosted by massive fiscal spending) and still oversold conditions (except versus the euro).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.
Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Don’t Fear The Treasury Bear Market – March 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In the midst of a burst of synchronized global growth, financed by Uncle Sam’s mega-stimulus, EM currencies stand to ride higher on a tide of investor risk appetite.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.
Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.
Global Fixed Income – Challenging The “Lower For Longer” Bond Narrative – March 16, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
Hyper-accommodative monetary and fiscal policies combined with a significant upgrade in economic expectations have caused a rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields
Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.
Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.
Foreign Exchange – Understanding Digital Currencies – March 9, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a substantial bull market on the back of highly accommodative monetary policies as well as increased speculative activity, partly attributable to the pandemic.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.
China – Yuan Bonds Outperform As Policy “Normalizes” – March 3, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The Chinese economy doesn’t need stimulus, and, in fact, fiscal retrenchment will gather pace this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.
Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.
Emerging Markets – BRL Bonds: No More Bad News Left To Discount – February 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Brazilian assets have been severely punished in recent weeks as a series of negative developments, including last week’s government intervention in Petrobras
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing An Anchor – February 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rebound in Treasury yields has spread abroad and has increased the odds of a correction in overbought risk asset markets.
Commodities – The Global Demand Recovery Alone Does Not Justify Recent Oil Price Gains – February 19, 2021
Commodities ·
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Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Asian Outperformance Worsens EM’s Concentration Problem – (10min:08sec) – February 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB Strategist Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the appropriate positioning for emerging markets within a global equity portfolio
Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.
Emerging Market Equities – Asian Outperformance Will Drive EM To Irrelevance – February 11, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
“Be careful what you wish for” is the Aesop’s fable that applies to long-suffering EM equity investors, who have been waiting a decade for a sustained period of outperformance.
Emerging Market Equities – The Implications Of EM Stock Concentration – February 11, 2021
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
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Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.
China – Chinese Divergences – February 2, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum is far above its trend growth rate, while its stock market booms, government bond yields and the currency edge higher and a central bank advisor dropped hints of policy normalization.
MRB TradeBook Update – January 29, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.
Emerging Markets – Chinese Equities: Has The Rotation Play Begun? – January 22, 2021
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – Why The Premium For Spot Delivery In An Oversupplied Oil Market?- (4min:52sec) – January 19, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani tackles the curious recent emergence of backwardation in the forward curves for crude oil.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent stall in U.S. employment trends underscores the need for rapid vaccinations to clear the path to a self-reinforcing global economic expansion.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
This report focuses primarily on the two issues: the outlook for the EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) asset class, and how investors should approach investment in Chinese government bonds.
Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.
Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2020 Review – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports2020 provided a rollercoaster ride in many financial asset markets, as investors were forced… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.
China – Climbing The Wall Of Worry – January 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
China continues to experience strong economic momentum, despite a stutter in December’s PMI surveys (which nevertheless remain firmly in expansionary territory).
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2021 – (83min:39sec) – December 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webinar, MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2021.
Regional Equities – Outlook 2021: Piecemeal Rotation – December 22, 2020
· Equities ·
The improving economic outlook is positive for equites overall, although it is already well-discounted in share prices (most notably in the U.S.).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.
Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.
Webcast – 2021 Commodities Outlook: Demand Improves, What About Supply? – (8min:41sec) – December 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the growth of the global economy in 2021 will be far better than it was in 2020.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).
Commodities – Industrial Metals: More Upside, But Barely Worth Chasing – December 11, 2020
Commodities ·
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Global Fixed Income – 2021 Outlook: Bond Supports Slowly Fade – December 10, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
We enter 2021 with a constructive pro-growth fixed-income positioning, albeit with measured return expectations.
Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.
China – What Could Interrupt China’s Rebound in 2021? – December 3, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum is by far the strongest in the world, which supports strong global appetite for Chinese financial assets.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.
Commodities – Oil Demand Is Recovering, But The Massive Supply Overhang Will Persist – November 27, 2020
Commodities ·
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Webcast – Is It Time For Financial Stocks? – (11min:28sec) – November 25, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global financial stocks following the release of the MRB Research Highlight:
“Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership” on November 18, 2020.
Policy – Global Monetary Policy Will Stay Very Accommodative – November 24, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The report is an annual study that compares the relative pressures facing the various central banks in the developed world.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.
Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
Global Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership – November 18, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Global financial stocks have enjoyed a solid bounce in recent weeks, breaking out of a trading range that had prevailed from June through October.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.
Emerging Market Equities – 2021 Outlook: EM Growth Sizzles, Can Earnings Pop? – November 11, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities in 2021 hinges on their relative earnings outlook, which in turn will be determined by the prospects for a broad-based and reasonably synchronized global economic recovery.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.
China – Domestic Growth Trumps Intermittent Foreign Demand – November 4, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
China is the only major economy recording positive GDP growth this year, and its central bank is the only one signaling policy normalization ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.
Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.
Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.
Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.
Equities – Global Bank Stocks: Cheap, But… – October 9, 2020
Equities ·
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China – Robust Recovery Offers Scant Global Comfort – October 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
The pace of China’s torrid post-Q1 economic rebound will ease off, but solid growth will be sustained thanks primarily to the robust service sector.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.
Webcast – Equity Rotation: Stronger Global Growth Is The Necessary Condition – (10min:12sec) – September 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for performance across the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning in a global equity portfolio.
Global Fixed Income – The Reflationary Bridge And The Bond Market – September 25, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
U.S. and G7 government bond yields have traded in an extremely tight range of late as bond volatility has been crushed by global central banks through highly accommodative policies and strong forward guidance.
Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
· Equities ·
A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.
Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.
Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.
China – Torrid Recovery Will Ease Off – September 8, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
China’s growth trajectory can be broken down into two components.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.
Commodidites – The Return Of Oil’s Unhappy Equilibrium – August 28, 2020
Commodities ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Select High-Yield Plays Will Shine – August 25, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Local currency-denominated EM debt (EMLCD) offers attractive yields in a world where investors are challenged by generally richly-valued stocks and bonds, and low expected returns in the developed markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.
Emerging Markets – Liquidity Provides Latitude For Experimental Policies – August 21, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.
Commodities – Industrial Commodities: Don’t Hang The (Modest) Bull Case On China – August 14, 2020
Commodities ·
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Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
· Themes ·
Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”
Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.
Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.
South Africa – Saved By The Fed, For Now – July 30, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
The IMF threw South Africa a lifeline this week and opened the door to other multilateral loans to deal with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
· Themes ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.
China – Cyclical Recovery Is Real – July 22, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
It may have taken a few months to revive after the initial lockdown, but June data confirms that Chinese economic activity has recovered from its early-year swoon and is growing at, or slightly above, its trend rate.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.
Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.
Emerging Markets Equities – Buying Growth, Or A Bubble, In China – July 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Investors in EM equities rarely face easy choices and the current circumstances offer a particularly challenging mix of risks and opportunities.
Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
· Themes ·
The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.
Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.
Commodities – Most Of The Oil Price Recovery Is In The Past, For Now – June 26, 2020
Commodities ·
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Equities – U.S. Equities: Revenues Will Tell The Story – June 26, 2020
Equities ·
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Webcast – Catalyst For A Regional Equity Rotation Is Not Yet In View – (9min:51sec) – June 24, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.
Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It All Comes Down To Employment And Job Security – June 19, 2020
· Uncategorized · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or churning phase for equities is probable in the near term, given the sharp rebound in prices this spring and likelihood that corporate profits will not be able to return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon.
Regional Equities – Greater Earnings Certainty Needed For A Major Rotation – June 18, 2020
· Equities ·
There are important crosscurrents in translating the macro landscape into regional equity positioning.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized ·
Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.
Emerging Markets – Chinese Manufacturing Rebounds, With Little Support – June 12, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
LatAm – Sifting Through The COVID-19 Rubble – June 10, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Local currency-denominated bonds are the best LatAm play, and should be held at overweight within an EM local-currency bond portfolio.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Broadening Equity Rally, For Now – May 29, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity rally has spread beyond U.S. large-caps into lagging bourses and sectors.
Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.
Emerging Markets – India’s Damp Squib Pandemic Package Lays Bare Its Policy Constraints – May 22, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can Post-Pandemic Asia Outperform? – May 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
We remain broadly constructive on the prospects for EM currencies to gain versus the U.S. dollar as North East Asian economies deliver a more successful post-pandemic reopening…
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.
Emerging Markets – Asia’s Pandemic Recedes, But The Economic Restart Lags – May 8, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Equities – Global Earnings: A Long Road To Recovery – May 5, 2020
· Equities ·
Global equities have recovered about half of their earlier losses in response to the slowing growth of COVID-19 cases, aggressive policy support and the gradual re-opening of the global economy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.
Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Saudi Arabia – 2020: A Replay Of Korea 1997? – April 29, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
In the EM world, the aggregate debt position of oil exporters was already far inferior to that of the broader universe before this year’s coronavirus-related collapse in oil demand.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.
Emerging Markets – China’s First In-First Out Recovery Gets Tepid Policy Support – April 24, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Global Fixed Income – The Fed Has A Backstop For Everything – April 21, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
In response to the sharp COVID-19 economic fallout, the Fed has adopted an unprecedented set of stimulus measures with clear positive implications for fixed-income assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.
Commodities – Trump’s Oil Deal Is A Victory For China And Oil Consumers – April 17, 2020
Commodities ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.
Gold – Further Upside Ahead – April 9, 2020
Commodities ·
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Emerging Markets – Rand Bonds: Light At The End Of The Downgrade Tunnel – April 9, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Equities – Rebound Sustainability Guide For Global Equities – April 9, 2020
Equities ·
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EM Equities – North Asia To The Fore Again – April 8, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Given the sudden stop nature of the global recession, and its potentially short-lived character (being driven by a pandemic response rather than economic factors)
Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.
Webcast – Outlook For Oil And Petro-Bonds – (10min:01sec) – April 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Oil prices have crumbled in the face of both a demand shock and a supply shock. Widespread lock-downs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have decimated oil demand, especially for transportation (and in particular, air transport).
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.
Emerging Markets – When Bad Does Good: China’s Yuan, Stocks And Bonds Resemble Safe Havens – March 27, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Regional Equities – The Best Offense Is A Good Defense – March 26, 2020
· Equities ·
The uncertainty associated with COVID-19 and the countermeasures being taken to ameliorate it justify a conservative regional equity allocation in the near term.
Global Foreign Exchange – Impact Of COVID-19 On FX Strategy – March 26, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Given the uncertainty associated with the global health crisis, it is helpful to consider scenario analysis for FX strategy over the next 6-12 months.
COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.
EM Fixed Income – Yet Another EM Debt Problem? – March 24, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
While coronavirus concerns have become the primary proximate driver for many asset prices, when it comes to EM debt, it is low oil prices that have most rattled global investors.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.
Global Equities – Mr. Market Goes To Extremes – March 20, 2020
Equities ·
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Webcast – Calculated Assessments Amidst Heightened Uncertainty – (13min:20sec) – March 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Capital markets are struggling against the backdrop of an escalating COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain economic fallout from countermeasures to contain it.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.
Commodities – Saudi Oil Price War: Starts With A Bang, But Will End With A Whimper – March 13, 2020
Commodities ·
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Absolute Return – Profiting From A Defensive Stance – March 13, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports We shifted the aggregate MRB TradeBook from a modest pro-growth to a defensive… Continue
Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.
Webcast – Saudi Oil Price War: Starts With A Bang, But Will End With A Whimper – (8min:45sec) – March 11, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for the oil market in the wake of the Saudi/Russian oil price war and demand declines associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – After The Virus… Recession Or Outperformance? – March 10, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Foreign exchange markets have seen volatility spike in recent weeks as investors grapple with the potential growth shock associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.
TradeBook Updates – March 6, 2020
Absolute Return · Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – COVID-19 And Investment Strategy (10min:09sec) – March 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest take on COVID-19 and how it will impact investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.
Global – COVID-19 Epidemic Update – February 28, 2020
Economics & Policy ·
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LatAm – Bonds And Rates Will Outperform – February 27, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
LatAm’s investment landscape beyond the short term will be characterized by a modest recovery in global trade and supportive global liquidity, all of which are positive for financial assets in the region.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (19min:00sec) – February 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
. In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month, including the virus.
Emerging Markets – Policy Support Reinforces The China Rotation Play- February 21, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – Buybacks Are An Important Factor In The U.S. ROE Advantage (11min:53sec) – February 19, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins takes a close look at return on equity in the major markets over the past decade and highlights some important drivers and considerations for valuations.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.
Equities – Global Return On Equity: Looks Can Be Deceiving – February 13, 2020
· Equities ·
The U.S.’ 5% ROE advantage versus the global ex-U.S. benchmark certainly helps underpin the premium valuation on U.S. stocks, which in the case of the price-to-book ratio exceeds 100%.
Webcast – EM Equities: Still In Choppy Waters (7min:45sec) – February 12, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses positioning on EM stocks in a global equity portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.
Policy – Little Pressure On Monetary Policy This Year – February 6, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The challenge heading forward for policymakers will be for those markets facing housing and credit excesses that ultimately will limit, if not prevent, any monetary tightening.
Emerging Market Equities – Buy On (Viral) Dips, But Only Selectively – February 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For the next several weeks, global investors may be mesmerized by the potential hit to global growth associated with China’s coronavirus epidemic.
Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.
Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.
China – The Wuhan Epidemic’s Growth Impact – January 30, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum ended 2019 with a bang, and started 2020 showing above-trend growth, propelled by a sharp recovery in industrial output, exports and imports.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.
Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Bonds: The Best Of The Credit Universe – January 21, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The outlook for EM local currency debt (EMLCD) can be summarized as “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”, but there are no steamrollers to be seen on a 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.
Emerging Markets – CNY: Manipulating The Manipulator Tag – January 17, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Upgrade EM Currencies Versus The U.S. Dollar – January 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
A steady if unspectacular improvement in global trade momentum, along with supportive global liquidity, imply that conditions are ripening for the outperformance of an EM currency basket versus…
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Bust, No Boom – January 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).
Webcast – Geopolitically-Driven Digestion Phase (8min:20sec) – January 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for capital markets in 2020, including the implications of the latest geopolitical crisis on investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.
Regional Equities – 2020 Outlook: Muted Earnings Upside – December 19, 2019
· Equities ·
An anticipated moderate rebound in global manufacturing and trade activity will not be enough for global ex-U.S. relative earnings to reverse the underlying downtrend versus the U.S. that has prevailed for most of this expansion.
Webcast – FX Strategy For 2020 (13min:31sec) – December 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this today’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the outlook for FX strategy in 2020.
Global Fixed Income – 2020 Outlook – December 17, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
Today’s report outlines our recommended fixed-income positioning for 2020.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Positioning For 2020 – December 12, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report outlines our FX positioning in 2020. This year the U.S. dollar traded marginally higher on the back of weaker external growth and ongoing uncertainty associated with trade and politics.
Emerging Markets Equities – 2020 EM Equity Outlook: “Another 2012”? – December 12, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Economic momentum in the EM world has been improving, and against a backdrop of softer global data is now superior to DM momentum for the first time since 2012.
Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part III): Commodities & Global Luxury – December 10, 2019
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias and focuses on… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Slow And Modest Upturn Lies Ahead – December 6, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
While global growth should gradually firm next year, it will be insufficient to warrant a decisive risk-on investment posture.
China – 2020 Outlook: No Fireworks – December 5, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
For 2020 as a whole, China’s GDP will likely record a real growth rate in the 5.5-6.0% range.
Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Consolidation Before More Upside? – November 29, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The resilience of the consumer sector bodes well for the U.S. economic outlook.
Webcast – Dividends For The Long Run (8min:24sec) – November 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins examines global dividends and their potential contribution to equity returns in the years ahead.
Equities – The Lure Of Dividends – November 26, 2019
· Equities ·
Current dividend yields on equities are compelling compared with the extraordinarily low yields available on long-term government bonds.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Outperformance Can Continue Awhile – November 26, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for overweighting EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) in a global fixed income portfolio is straightforward.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Validation – November 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There are tentative signs of a trough in manufacturing activity, but follow-through will be critical to sustain the recent breakout in equities and the global stock/bond ratio.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – A Skinny Trade Deal Adds Comfort, Not Return – November 19, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In a growth-challenged world, EM currencies are unlikely to escape the see-saw impact of global risk appetite, and will continue to maintain their negative correlation with the U.S. dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy – FOMO Versus A Challenging Earnings Outlook – November 15, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity should gradually improve in the coming year, but much strongergrowth is highly unlikely.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Worries Recede Further – November 8, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stability in manufacturing PMI surveys and the recent easing in trade tensions have spurred higher equity prices and bond yields.
Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Asset Allocation Strategy – No Recession, But Not Much Growth Ahead – November 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
We expect the economic expansion to continue, but there is little basis for concluding a robust rebound in activity and profits looms over the next year that would justify a decidedly pro-growth investment posture.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Turn In Manufacturing – October 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Non-U.S. equities have perked up, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity will keep a lid on equity prices and bond yields.
Fixed Income – U.K. Gilts: Inflation Expectations Should Converge Lower With The U.S. – October 25, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.
Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.
Global Equities – An Old, But Not Fully Mature Earnings Cycle – October 15, 2019
· Asset Class Reports · Equities ·
The global earnings upcycle is advanced, but should continue in the sluggish growth environment we anticipate in the year ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bending, But Not Yet Breaking – October 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Trade policies and heightened domestic economic tensions continue to erode global economic sentiment, although not yet by enough to undermine the expansion.
Emerging Markets Equities – The Tech Tide Turns, Will The Rest Follow? – October 10, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The rule of thumb for EM allocations in a global equity portfolio has been to look to global trade momentum as the key strategy signal. The current cycle is unique in this regard.
Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Ugly Politics Carpets (So Far) Solid Floorboards – September 27, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The drip/drip of negative political developments risks undermining economic sentiment.
Regional Equities – Hewing Close To Home – September 26, 2019
· Equities ·
Only selective deviations from regional benchmark weightings have a favorable risk-reward profile in a global equity portfolio given the policy and economic backdrop.
China – Chinese Economic Momentum Softens And Stocks Rally (As Usual) – September 25, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese domestic-listed stocks are rallying while economic momentum hits another soft patch.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Growth Plus DM Liquidity: Goldilocks For Bonds – September 24, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Growth momentum in the emerging markets is lacklustre, but recession risks are low.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Absorbing Another Body Blow – September 20, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Better-than-expected U.S. growth and an upward creep in core inflation herald a pause in Fed easing.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Highly Political World – September 19, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
Increased political uncertainty and trade threats have fueled financial market volatility, benefiting safe-haven currencies including the U.S. dollar. However, further upside for the dollar should prove limited.
Webcast – Oil Moves Back To Center Stage (11min:48sec) – September 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Makhjavani and Peter Perkins discuss key drivers of global capital markets including the recent disruption to Saudi production, as well as the recent sharp rise in bond yields.
Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook
Asset Allocation Strategy – Profiting From Prudence – September 6, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Despite the potential allure of an aggressive cyclical bet, prudence warrants plotting a broadly neutral course for now.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Indiscriminate Weakness Opens Up Opportunities – September 5, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Whether weighted by equity or debt benchmarks, EM currency aggregates have given up all their 12-month gains relative to the U.S. dollar.
Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Is Trump Blinking? – August 23, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
President Trump appears to have heard the warning that his trade policy risks undermining his re-election prospects.
Commodities – Mildly Softer Demand Still Hurts Oil Assets – August 23, 2019
Commodities ·
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China – Data Solid, Market Narratives Crumble – August 15, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Market narratives about China’s economy are far more pessimistic than the actual data, amplifying a negative feedback loop that stokes investor anxieties about global growth.
Global Fixed Income – The Race To Negative Bond Yields – August 13, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
Global bond yields have melted this year in response to an extreme dovish shift by the major central banks and a ratcheting up of trade tensions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.
Emerging Markets – The Weaker Yuan: By Design Or Default? – August 9, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still Lacking A Catalyst – July 26, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global manufacturing weakness is persisting, which is dampening economic sentiment and investor risk-taking.
Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It May Be Unnecessary, But… – July 19, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors remain wary of taking risk outside of U.S. large-cap stocks, implying that there is still considerable sidelined cash to buy equities – but only if economic confidence improves.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s A Grind – July 12, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed is committed to a rate cut later this month, and will stay dovish even after economic news improves.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – The Fed Forgives, But Several Leaps Of Faith Still Required – July 11, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equity investors are required to take several leaps of faith when looking at prospects for the year ahead.
Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.
Webcast – Snack On EM Debt While Watching The U.S./China Slugfest (6min:49sec) – July 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani discussing the implications of the G20 summit for various EM assets.
Regional Equities – Limited Late-Cycle Beta Warranted – June 28, 2019
· Equities ·
The health of the global economic expansion will be the key driver of relative equity market performance in the year ahead, rather than valuations or monetary policy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Fed, ECB Will Flatter EM Bond Returns – June 27, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Central banks sometimes offer precautionary easing in the face of threats that do not subsequently play out as feared – an example being the Fed’s response to the LTCM episode, which sustained a well-advanced investment cycle.
Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.
Global Foreign Exchange – Making Selective Non-Dollar Bets – June 25, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
The global economy and investor expectations have been caught between the clash in policy forces of heightened trade tensions and further monetary reflation.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Binary Outcomes – June 21, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed has now shifted full-circle to the dovish side. However, the forward markets are too aggressive in terms of expected rate cuts this year, unless economic activity deteriorates meaningfully, which we do not expect.
Geopolitics – The U.S. Versus Iran: Who Wants What? – June 21, 2019
Economics & Policy ·
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Equities – Global Equities: Calibrating Downside And Upside Risk – June 20, 2019
· Equities ·
Our base-case scenario is that the global economic expansion will persist, with growth around potential, and manufacturing and trade activity firming modestly over the next 6-12 months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Crosscurrents Continue – June 14, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equity and credit markets remain caught between mounting trade tensions, and supportive monetary conditions and positive underlying corporate profitability.
Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fed Props Up EM FX While Growth Fades – June 11, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Protectionist rhetoric has ratcheted higher, dovish developed market central banks are mollifying jittery capital markets while EM assets offer a very attractive carry.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.
Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
· Themes ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.
Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:07sec) – June 5, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide highlights from the MRB Annual Overview Of Key Macro And Investment Themes as well as a “roadmap” for investors to navigate the current global landscape.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.
Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy ·
The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – May 23, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
China – Preparing For A Digital Iron Curtain – May 22, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Beware the tendency to attribute every twitch in Chinese asset prices to the current tweet on trade.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Protecting Some Profits – May 17, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are protecting profits and downgrading equities to neutral within a multi-asset portfolio, following the powerful run-up in prices this year and recent escalation in trade tensions.
Equities – An Aging Global Earnings Cycle Still Offers Upside – May 16, 2019
· Equities ·
The current economic expansion is the longest on record, if measured by the U.S. cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.
Emerging Markets – Korean Equities: It’s Now Or Never – May 10, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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South Africa – Underwhelming Politics, But A Disaster Was Avoided – May 9, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
This week’s elections failed to deliver a convincing enough mandate for President Ramaphosa to carry out root-and-branch structural reforms, and while it is difficult to identify a long term winner, the clear loser is private sector investment and job creation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.
Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – It’s All About The Carry Now – April 25, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Yields on EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have declined dramatically in recent months, in line with the trend in U.S. Treasurys.
Webcast – China: 2019 Is Not 2016 (7min:30sec) – April 24, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s MRB Wednesday Webcast “China: 2019 Is Not 2016” Mehran Nakhjavani discusses China’s economic momentum impacts global investors via three vectors: as a commodity consumer, as a global export engine, and as a source of domestic demand.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Stabilizing Growth, Easy Liquidity – April 16, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In terms of global liquidity and growth prospects, 2019 is playing out as the reverse of last year: growth is stabilizing and liquidity is plentiful, courtesy of the dovish U-turn.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V – April 12, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. and global ex-U.S. equity prices should hit new highs given our expectation that the tentative turnaround in global trade and manufacturing activity will gain momentum.
Commodities – U.S./Iran Spat Implies A Permanent Risk Premium For Oil Prices – April 12, 2019
Commodities ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.
Emerging Markets – An EM Shopping List For Multi-Asset Investors – March 29, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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Regional Equities Report – A Sustained Expansion Favors Cyclical Markets – March 26, 2019
· Equities ·
We expect equity prices to be higher over the next 6-12 months, albeit with periodic setbacks that will test nerves.
Commodities – Oops, He Did It Again: Saudi Output Cuts Reinforce U.S. Oil Supremacy – March 22, 2019
Commodities ·
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Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Desynchronized World – March 18, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has drifted slightly higher on the back of slower global growth and ongoing investor uncertainty about the economic outlook.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Tortoise Cycle – March 15, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The window of opportunity for further gains in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist for the next 6 to 12 months.
Emerging Markets – The Saudi Inclusion Equity Rally Will Evaporate – March 15, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.
Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.
Emerging Markets – South Africa: The Poster Child For The EM Carry Play – March 1, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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China – Looking Past The Data Drought – February 21, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
After a miserable 2018, Chinese stocks have rallied hard since the lunar new year holiday and are up 14% year-to-date. At the same time, foreign media reports about China have been focused on a very gloomy prognosis for the economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Testing Times – February 15, 2019
· Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some key equity indexes are breaking above resistance levels and high-yield corporate bond spreads are narrowing, which bode well for risk assets.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Fixed Income Will Outperform – February 14, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local-currency bond yields are highly correlated with U.S. Treasury yields, and as the latter have eased back from early October highs, so have EM yields.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Pain Trade Persist? – February 8, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth has softened, but key demand engines are in good shape.
Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Global Fixed Income – Navigating The Cyclical And Secular Crosscurrents – February 6, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
This report analyzes the forces driving the recent drop in U.S. and G7 government bond yields and whether cyclical forces have shifted sustainably in support of bonds.
Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.
Emerging Markets – Latam Play: Brazilian Stocks And Mexican Bonds Will Win – January 31, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Brazil and Mexico typically compete for Latam portfolio flows. Today’s report concludes that investors are likely to rotate into Mexican peso bonds as the relative risk/reward profile has tilted against Brazilian local bonds.
Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It’s Late, But Not Yet Over – January 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent equity market low (high in corporate bond spreads) should hold, but a re-test is still possible.
Emerging Markets – Yuan Devaluation: Neither A Policy Option, Nor Supported By Capital Flows – January 25, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.
Emerging Markets – Chinese Data: An Imminent, But Modest, Upturn? – January 18, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Equities Report – Focus On Financials, Trade Worries Will Dissipate – January 17, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Of the four major drivers of recent EM equity outperformance – currency trends, internet stocks, financials and, more generally…
Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Calmer Heads Prevail? – January 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk asset markets overreacted to a modest deterioration in the fundamentals in late-2018.
Charts – China: Growth Trends Diverge Sharply – January 10, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
A bearish narrative pervades investor interpretation of Chinese economic data
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.
Webcast – Excessive Pessimism Priced In (10min:32sec) – January 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest asset allocation strategy, arguing that markets are discounting an overly bearish economic outlook in 2019.
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Precarious Footing – January 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets are discounting a pronounced further slowdown in global economic growth in 2019, with a significant probability of recession.
Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It Is Either/Or – December 21, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The FOMC (and chair Powell) stumbled in its communication strategy this week.
Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Outperformance Will Continue – December 20, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) has demonstrated extraordinary resilience recently by outperforming U.S. Treasurys in a year buffeted by trade war angst, a purported EM “currency crisis”
Regional Equities Report – Relative Performance Shifts Emerging – December 19, 2018
· Equities ·
Our view, as outlined last week in the MRB Weekly Macro Strategy, is that the global economic expansion will persist,
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.
Emerging Markets – A Better Year Ahead – December 14, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – The Stealth EM Recovery Has (Patchy) Support – December 13, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
EM currencies have mounted a stealth recovery since late September, despite a sharp increase in risk aversion and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Global Foreign Exchange Report – FX Markets: 2019 Outlook – December 11, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar appreciated this year against most currencies, although only modestly despite most variables (including interest rate differentials and relative growth) favoring the currency.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.
Webcast – Stylized Investment Cycle: Navigating The Endgame (11min:42sec) – December 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Global equity markets are in turmoil, as investors are rapidly downgrading the growth expectations and starting to panic about the potential for a global recession.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-Off Pressures Ease – November 30, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Worries that the Fed will prematurely turn restrictive have diminished, helping to calm the Treasury market.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Toxic Policy Smog Threatens India’s Long-Term Outlook – November 30, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Charts – China: Stocks Stir, Will The Economy Follow? – November 26, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Something is stirring in China’s mainland bourses: for the past month the local CSI300 index has been under less pressure than the MSCI China index.
WMS – Commodities – Oil Prices: Fear Still Rules The Roost – November 23, 2018
Commodities · Emerging Markets ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Global Economic Stool: Are The Legs Wobbly? – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been hit hard over the past few weeks, with global… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – Chinese Catalysts For An EM Rebound – November 21, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports This year’s selloff of EM-related assets, overdone as it was, has largely blown… Continue
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.
Brazil – Overdone, Or Just Getting Started? – November 20, 2018
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Brazilian stocks, bonds and the Real have all been on a tear since their trough in September, benefitting our overweight positions in EM equity, bond and currency portfolios.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Korea And Taiwan Equities: Collateral Damage – November 16, 2018
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
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Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back To Gridlock – November 9, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. politics will remain “noisy”, but should have an overall benign impact on the economy and financial markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Excessive Growth Anxiety – November 2, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Last month’s market reaction was largely overdone. That U.S. economic and earnings growth are in the process of peaking which goes without saying given that this year’s fiscal stimulus will fade in 2019.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Sentiment Versus Fundamentals – October 26, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.
Webcast – Bond Yields, Choke Points & Relief Valves (12min:26sec) – October 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Financial markets have been shaken as investors have rapidly adjusted their expectations to reflect a higher bond yield environment.
South Africa – Circles Or Spirals? – October 23, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
It has been a turbulent year for South African financial assets, starting with a euphoric rally after President Ramaphosa’s victory in December 2017, and then giving back earlier gains as investors’ patience broke in the summer.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflective, Not Restrictive – October 19, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity market is at risk in the near run as investors grapple with the threat of rising interest rates and concerns about the economic outlook.
WMS – Emerging Markets – EM Equities: Apart From Tech, Perking Up In Relative Terms – October 19, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – Don’t Mention The War (10min:01sec) – October 17, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). October 17 after… Continue
Emerging Markets – Brazil and Mexico: A Phoenix, Not A Dragon – October 16, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Factors that caused investors to lose faith with Brazil and Mexico earlier this year are now reversing and both markets are well set to deliver positive absolute and relative performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Bond Yields Reach A Choke Point – October 12, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Limited Growth Risks And Attractive Valuations – October 11, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
After a period of EM local-currency bond underperformance in recent months, investors are increasingly distinguishing between those selected EM assets.
Webcast – A Fresh Test For Investors (8min:45sec) – October 10, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Bond Bear Bites Again – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
The abrupt breakout in U.S. Treasury yields over the past week caught many investors by surprise and sent shockwaves through financial asset markets.
U.S. – Optim-ism To Pessim-ism? – October 9, 2018
· Economics & Policy ·
In this report, we look at the cyclical behavior of the U.S. ISM manufacturing index, which remains a highly useful short-hand guide to U.S. and global growth momentum, which has a meaningful impact on investment risk appetite
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Rebalance For The Rebound – October 4, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies have recently decoupled from the U.S. dollar, forming a tentative bottom despite the dollar’s latest spike.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Message To The Fed: It’s Far From Over – September 28, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A dovish Fed may provide Treasurys with a brief reprieve. However, we remain bearish on bonds: the Fed will ultimately raise rates by more than expected.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Anyone But Ciro: Brazil’s Election Risks Are Not As Fraught As They Appear – September 28, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Is The Worst Over? – September 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
On/off trade worries are again receding, spurring a risk-on phase. The global stock/bond ratio has room to rise, as positive economic fundamentals will persist.
Regional Equities – Relative Extremes Cannot Be Sustained – September 20, 2018
· Equities ·
Global equities have diverged sharply this year, with the U.S. market roaring to new highs, while most non-U.S. benchmarks have faltered since hitting cyclical peaks early this year.
Asia Ex-Japan – China Macro Update: A Narrow Slowdown – September 18, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
The data releases for August indicate that Chinese economic growth is decelerating, but this is an extremely soft landing.
Emerging Markets – Are Commodity Prices Signalling An EM Equity Buy? – September 18, 2018
· Commodities · Emerging Markets ·
Commodity prices and EM equities have generally been positively correlated, as cyclically-sensitive assets which are generally quoted in U.S. dollar terms.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Opposing Forces – September 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Once again, there are glimmers of hope on the trade front. A meaningful easing in tensions would signal that the risk-on backdrop in the U.S. will spread abroad.
WMS – Commodities – Oil Fundamentals No Drama Ahead – September 14, 2018
Commodities ·
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Webcast – Liquidity And The Investment Cycle (9min:47sec) – September 12, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins and Adam Wolfe discuss key issues for the investment outlook, namely global liquidity conditions and the threat of an EM crisis, as well offer perspectives from our Asian client-base, following Adam’s recent regional road-trip
Charts – The Credit Cycle: Late But Too Soon To Abandon Spread For Quality – September 11, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
After nearly a decade of depressed G7 government bond yields and a global search for yield, there are very few remaining appealing opportunities within fixed-income markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Liquidity Fears Are Overdone – September 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Fears of a squeeze on global liquidity are increasing, as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and continues its grad
Emerging Market Equities Report – Trade Peace First, Outperformance Next – September 6, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have taken a hit in the last several months and market narratives tend to blame currency weakness in several G20 economies (Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Turkey) and the threat of trade war.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – NAFTA 2.0 And Mexico Bi- or Tri-Lateral – August 31, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Asia Ex-Japan – Trade Anxiety Should Fade – August 28, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Whether due to fears of a global trade war, a significant yuan devaluation,… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Surmounting The Hurdles (Yet Again) – August 24, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth has stabilized at historically solid levels, underscoring that conditions remain supportive of equity markets and bearish for bonds.
Asia Ex-Japan – Yuan Devaluation Risks Are Low – August 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to believe that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) can, and will, support the trade-weighted yuan, which underpins our overweight positions in Asian stocks and currencies within their respective EM portfolios.
A Primer On IMF Rescue Plans: A Turkish Example – August 20, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Turkey is staring at a currency, banking and economic crisis as its access to foreign finance dries up.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-On Or Risk-Off? – August 17, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Turkish meltdown should not have an escalating domino effect on the EM world, nor on overall global economic activity.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Is Turkey The First Of Many Dominos To Fall? – August 17, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Asia Ex-Japan Report – Gauging The Contagion Risks For EM Asian Currencies – August 14, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
With Turkey on the edge of a currency and financial crisis, fears of contagion have spread to EM Asia.
Global Foreign Exchange Report – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Looking Fatigued – August 13, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
Aggressive U.S. tariffs against Turkey last week, pushed the lira to a new historical low, and provided a lift to the dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Looking To Upgrade Equities – August 10, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Underlying economic and corporate earnings prospects are still positive, but an easing in trade tensions is needed to lift non-U.S. equity market sentiment.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Are Turkish Assets Cheap Enough? – August 10, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – EM Currencies’ Trade Tantrum (7min:23sec) – August 8, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for EM currencies after the last few weeks of investor nervousness towards this asset class.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Where There’s Muck, There’s Brass – August 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Three distinct narratives combined earlier this year to buffet EM currencies, albeit on a scale that is rather modest by the standards of 2013’s “Taper Tantrum” and 2014-2015’s commodity price meltdown.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Markets In Limbo – August 3, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets remain in limbo, with key equity, bond and currency benchmarks still largely range-bound.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Internet Companies (Part I): Are Growth Projections Realistic? – July 31, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The internet is eating China’s economy, and China’s large internet companies are eating their competitors. Investors believe that this trend will continue over the longer-run, thereby justifying the technology sector’s rich valuations.
WMS – Commodities – Copper Had A Healthy Correction And Can Now Outperform – July 27, 2018
Commodities ·
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WMS – Fixed Income – Will The BoJ Join The Monetary Unwind? – July 27, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – MRB Q&A: Top Questions From Clients (9min:35sec) – July 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins answers some of the key client questions we have recently received, ranging from the impact of trade protectionism on investment strategy to the outlook for gold.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Policy Debate Stokes Yuan Fears – July 24, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Any forthcoming monetary easing is likely to be less than is already discounted by the markets, while a loosening of the fiscal screws should provide support for the yuan.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Resilient Or Complacent? – July 20, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cautiously optimistic that the global stock/bond ratio will move higher in the next 6-12 months
Latam – Latin America: Short Term Pain Will Give Way To Long Term Gain – July 19, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Latam financial assets have been buffeted by the combination of rising global protectionist threats and self-inflicted wounds in Argentina, Brazil and until recently, Mexico.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China Macro Update: Demand And Production Start To Realign – July 17, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese stock prices and the yuan have reflected concerns about a sharper economic slowdown ever since the demand-side measures fell short
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – No Blinking So Far – July 13, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The trade war has not de-escalated. Thus, equity prices will remain at risk in the near run, and bond prices will stay supported.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – Love It, Or Leave It – July 12, 2018
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have decent earnings growth potential and recent selling pressure has restored attractive valuations.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Bear: Hunt Or Run? – July 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Despite large differences in sector composition, valuations, and international trade exposure, correlations between China’s CSI-300 index, the MSCI China and MSCI Hong Kong indexes have risen to the highest levels in more than a decade.
Webcast – The China Syndrome: Containment Or Contagion? (6min:29sec) – July 4, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Adam Wolfe discusses the recent weakness in the Chinese yuan and Chinese stock prices.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Yuan Depreciation Will Be Contained – July 3, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Those looking for a ray of hope in an otherwise gloomy investment landscape can point to the fact that a 3.3% decline in the yuan against the U.S. dollar in June
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Economic Resilience Last? – June 29, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There have been conflicting messages from global financial markets, underscoring the uncertain investment landscape.
WMS – Commodities – Oil Bulls Begging For Supply Constraints – June 29, 2018
· Commodities ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.
WMS – Emerging Markets – More Headwinds For Rand Bonds – June 22, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Regional Equities – Protectionism Threatens Export-Driven Markets – June 21, 2018
· Equities ·
An array of concerns has weighed on global equities since the January peak, most recently with the escalation of U.S. trade protectionist measures.
Saudi Arabia – Three Questions, One Answer – June 21, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
With Saudi bond issuance burgeoning, and its equity market soon to be included in EM benchmarks, the country is on the cusp of becoming a mainstream destination for foreign portfolio investors.
Webcast – Identifying The EM Babies Thrown Out With The Bathwater (8min:14sec) – June 20, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Wednesday Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani examines the recent selloff in EM currencies and bonds and looks for potential mispricing associated with the negative market narrative.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Hawks And Doves – June 15, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The U.S. economy is reaccelerating and we expect the Fed will lift its forecast for the longer-run equilibrium rate by yearend, given the ongoing upcycle in core inflation and wage growth.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Positive Growth Beats Negative Liquidity – June 14, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
There is no imminent threat of an EM debt crisis.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Asia Policy Round Up: Gearing Up For The 2019 Elections – June 12, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
The U.S. dollar’s recent appreciation has bifurcated monetary policy across South and Southeast Asia.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Wobbly Leg? – June 8, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recent weakness in some euro area economic indicators should soon give way to stability.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Is The Trade Tide Turning? – June 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies almost always deliver decent returns to global investors when there is a positive global trade cycle, and rarely do so when global trade decelerates.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Can 1997 Happen Again? – June 5, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
U.S. dollar appreciation since April has exposed balance-sheet weaknesses in a handful of EMs, sparking fears of a currency crisis and contagion.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bet On Resilience – June 1, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The political crisis in Italy is the latest headwind for risk assets and the global economy
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Navigating The Political Risks In Southeast Asia – May 29, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
After a shock election result, the new government in Malaysia has been grappling with the hidden fiscal weakness left behind by the previous, deeply corrupt ruling coalition.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Lot Of Churning – May 25, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty remain elevated, which will continue to hold back the global stock/bond ratio in the near run.
Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
· Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes ·
Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Sifting Through The Brazilian Rubble – May 25, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – Uncertainty Will Give Way To Optimism – May 22, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The relative performance of Asia Ex-Japan equities has been stuck in a choppy sideways trading range this year due to worries about global economic growth, rising U.S. Treasury yields and an appreciating dollar, as well as margin pressure in China’s technology sector.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Floors And Ceilings – May 18, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakout in U.S. bond yields and rebound in the dollar underscore that the U.S. policy/economic cycle still has momentum.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Japanese Yen Bulls: A Long-Term Relationship – May 18, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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WMS – Emerging Markets – Rising Treasury Yields And The Dollar: Tougher Times For Some EM Currencies – May 18, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Asia Ex-Japan – Growth Fears Are Overblown – May 16, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s soft landing remained on track in April. The MRB China Early Economic… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More Churning, But The Cycle Remains Intact – May 11, 2018
· Commodities · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. inflationary pressures continue to slowly build, and emergency-level interest rates outside of the U.S. are no longer warranted.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Malaysian Assets: More Pain Ahead, Maybe Some Gain Later – May 11, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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WMS – Economy – Rising Inflation: This Time, It’s Not An EM Thing – May 11, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Foreign Exchange Report – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in the near run.
Webcast – Iran Risk Does Not Justify $75/bbl Oil (6min:40sec) – May 9, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Wednesday Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses some of the investment implications of President Trump’s decision yesterday to withdraw the United Stated from the multilateral JCPAO agreement.
Emerging Market Equities Report – Not The End, Yet – May 8, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global trade growth has been the single most reliable indicator of EM equity… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Cash Is King – May 4, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The crosscurrents of a moderation in global growth momentum, combined with ongoing Fed rate hikes, rising U.S. inflation, and looming U.S. protectionist measures, portends continued churning in global capital markets in the near term.
Russia – The Ruble And Ruble Bonds: Safe Bet Or Russian Roulette? – May 3, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Russian financial assets were hit last month by the expansion of U.S.-imposed sanctions, and while this hurt our overweight positions on Russia within EM currency and fixed-income portfolios
Asia Ex-Japan – Chinese Banks: Earnings Are Looking Up – May 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
China’s listed banks are likely to see a reduction in provisioning costs over the next two years, which should deliver the strongest earnings growth since 2013.
Webcast – The Russia/Saudi Oil Alliance And Inflation Expectations (6min:53sec) – April 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Since 2014’s oil price crash, investors seem to have become fixated on oil prices as the driver of inflation expectations
Asia Ex-Japan – China Macro Update: An Unsustainable Property Rebound – April 24, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
China’s economic resilience in Q1 was largely driven by a rebound in residential construction, which propped up the heavy industrial sector.
South Africa – Ramaphoria, The Rand, And Related Assets – April 24, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
South Africa woke up from the long nightmare of the profoundly corrupt presidency of Jacob Zuma, marked by “state capture”, feeble growth and spiralling public debt, and staged a euphoric rally to welcome President Ramaphosa.
Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Confidence Hold? – April 20, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is cooling after last year’s mini-boom, but a sizable slowdown is unlikely, provided trade tensions do not escalate.
Webcast – Currency Intervention In China And Hong Kong (6min:05sec) – April 18, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Adam Wolfe discusses central bank currency intervention in China and Hong Kong.
Asia Ex-Japan – Politics Point To A Stronger Yuan, Weaker Ringgit – April 17, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
In recent months, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been guiding the yuan exchange rate higher and domestic interest rates lower, all in the context of financial market opening.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Reassuringly Boring, For Now – April 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
When global trade is expanding, accidents rarely occur for EM currencies as a whole.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More To Go – March 29, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Heightened geopolitical tensions and stock-specific woes in the tech sector will keep equity markets weak in the near run.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – The Japanese Yen Appreciates In Volatile Times – March 29, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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WMS – Commodities – Copper Is Vulnerable, Blame China – March 29, 2018
Commodities · Emerging Markets ·
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Asia Ex-Japan – Is A Trade War Brewing? – March 27, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
Proposed U.S. tariffs on about US$60 bn worth of Chinese imports roiled Asian markets at the end of last week.
Asset Allocation – Global Portfolio Performance: Fading Tailwinds – March 22, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
A major inflection point is underway for global multi-asset portfolios.
Mexico – A Populist Win In Mexico, Thanks to Trump – March 20, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Mexico will elect a new president on 1 July, and the runaway front-runner is an old-school populist with a long track record of incendiary and hyper-leftist positions, who failed on his two previous attempts to win the presidency.
Equities – EM Small Caps: Time To Fly? – March 15, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Small capitalization stocks are often treated as the highest-beta segment of an equity universe, where outsized returns are possible during positive economic periods, at the price of high volatility and large drawdowns during bear markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Choppiness Will Persist In The Near Term – March 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets will continue to be in flux in the near term given uncertainty about the inflation and interest rate outlook as well as fresh policy risks, including the recent U.S. protectionist measures.
China – Xi’s Power Grab Is Not A Prelude To Economic Reform– March 8, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Doing away with presidential term limits has put the final nail in the coffin for Deng Xiaoping’s political reforms.
Webcast – The Case For EM Equities (6min:25sec) – March 7, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The case for overweighting EM in a global equity portfolio is straightforward: global trade is expanding on a sustainable basis.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still In Flux – March 2, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity market correction has not yet run its course. On a positive note, the relative resilience of global financial stocks bodes well for another rally phase in the overall stock market
Emerging Markets Equities Report – Back Up The Truck – March 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The case for overweighting EM in a global equity portfolio is straightforward: global trade is expanding on a sustainable basis.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Equities: Time To Go Underweight Or Overweight? – February 23, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The correction in risk assets will probably persist in the near run.
U.S. Equity Sectors – Positioning In A Higher Volatility World – February 20, 2018
· Equities ·
After a long absence, volatility returned to the equity market earlier this month, triggered by a breakout in Treasury yields.
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – Will Stocks Be A Dog This Year? – February 15, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors may be forgiven for thinking the Year of the Dog came early…. Continue
Latam – Another Good Year Ahead – February 15, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Latam financial assets mildly underperformed their EM counterparts last year. However, the outlook… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – The U.S. Dollar Is Lacking Friends – February 13, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports There is a case for a bounce in the U.S. dollar from oversold… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Transitioning To A New Era – February 9, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk asset prices will remain under pressure until bond yields stabilize. The latter… Continue
India – Budget: Don’t Worry, Be Happy – February 8, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are treating last week’s budget announcement as yet another policy mistake by… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Protecting Profits – February 5, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Two of the risk factors that we have been monitoring to time an… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Clearer Skies, Time To Harvest Yield – February 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports We have been anticipating short-term turbulence for EM local-currency debt (EMLCD), followed by… Continue
Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:56sec) – January 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). January 31 after… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 30, 2018
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The High-Wire Act Continues – January 26, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The backdrop remains bond-bearish. Meanwhile, technical and valuation measures are progressively deteriorating for equities, particularly in the U.S.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Buy The Brazilian Real/Rand Cross (Again) – January 26, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Charts – A Weak U.S. Dollar Will Benefit Non-U.S. Equity Markets – January 25, 2018
· Equities ·
The recent divergence between the performance of the U.S. dollar and regional equity market relative returns in common currency terms is unsustainable.
Webcast – Commodities: Caution Warranted Despite Growth Spurt (5min:17sec) – January 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Commodity prices have been responding to the same signals of a synchronized global economic expansion that underpin our moderately constructive outlook for risk assets.
Charts – China: A Slowdown Looms, Not A Crisis – January 23, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
China’s economy is likely to decelerate in the first half of 2018 due to monetary tightening, harder local government budget constraints, and a wobbly housing market.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Into The Extrapolation Phase – January 19, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investors are discounting positive earnings trends well into the future, but have not yet made a parallel adjustment to their interest rate expectations.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 18, 2018
· Themes ·
This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Asia Ex-Japan – Will Technology’s Tailwinds Fade? – January 18, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Asia ex-Japan equities had a very good 2017, in large part due to the technology sector.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – A Favorable Tide, But Some Pesky Headwinds -January 11, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We recommend investors maintain overweights on EM currencies which are supported by the global trade revival
Asset Allocation Strategy –Risk Assessment: It’s Still Too Soon To Bail – January 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic and policy outlook remains positive for risk assets and we remain moderately overweight equities versus government bonds in a multi-asset portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Betting Against the Consensus – December 22, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global stock/bond ratio has more upside, but mostly because bonds will generate negative returns rather than due to huge equity gains in 2018.
Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Favors Non-U.S. – December 21, 2017
Equities ·
The recent bout of U.S. market outperformance will gradually fade, with more cyclical markets including EM Asia, the euro area and Japan better positioned to take advantage of the late-stage economic expansion.
Webcast – MRB’s Best Long-Term Bets (7min:39sec) – December 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines several of MRB’s multi-year investment recommendations.
Chile – Copper Trumps Politics – December 20, 2017
· Emerging Markets ·
The Chilean peso has significantly lagged copper prices since the start of the year, suggesting that domestic factors, namely weak growth earlier this year and politics more recently, have weighed on the currency in 2017.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.
Emerging Market Equities Report – Can EM Outperform Without China? – December 7, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities respond well to global growth drivers, a relationship once again reinforced by performance over the past year.
Webcast – What’s In Store For 2018 (8min:45sec) – December 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for the macro backdrop and the implications for capital markets in 2018.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Outlook For 2018 – December 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Strong returns for most risk assets combined with the advanced age of the U.S. economic expansion have many investors wondering to what extent dangers are building going into 2018.
Asia Ex-Japan – On The Road Again — Asia Trip Perspectives – November 29, 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Last week included a trip of client visits in Singapore and Hong Kong, the major theme of which was the outlook for capital markets in 2018 and appropriate asset allocation.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It All Comes Down To Inflation – November 24, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain near-run cautious on risk assets, but are still positive on the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon.
Webcast – OPEC Wins The War, Loses The Peace (8min:22sec) – November 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, “OPEC Wins The War, Loses The Peace”, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for the oil market and the likely outcome for OPEC’s November 30th meeting.
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – November 21, 2017
· Equities ·
It has been a great year for Asia Ex-Japan equities. Global growth accelerated, and global exports outpaced GDP.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 17, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A near-run correction in risk assets is underway. We do not expect it to progress into a significant setback and thus are not de-risking our moderately pro-growth stance.
Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 10, 2017
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bond and equity correction looms as the inflation, policy and economic backdrop turns marginally less supportive. Moreover, high-yield corporate bond spreads have edged up lately, a potential warning sign for equities.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – November 9, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Once the twin air pockets of a U.S. dollar rally and a Chinese… Continue
Webcast – It Will Be More Difficult Next Year (8min:07sec) – November 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 8 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – November 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports It’s been a banner year for investors. Global equity returns are 21% year-to-date… Continue
Webcast – The Disinflation Tailwind Has Passed (9min:23sec) – November 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for the major asset classes and examines the key economic, policy and valuations drivers.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – November 1, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes ·
This is the third MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 27, 2017
Asset Class Reports · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Both the ECB and the BoC confirmed that they remain keen to stay behind the economic curve, which is pro-growth and bullish for the global stock/bond ratio.
Long-Term Returns Report – October 26, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income ·
The coming decade will see an end to an era of steadily declining discount rates and the associated boost to asset valuations. Prospective returns for balanced portfolios will be middling by historical standards, accompanied by lower Sharpe ratios.
Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.
China – Private Sector: Crisis Or Opportunity? – October 24, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
China’s industrial-led rebound has greatly benefitted its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), while private industrial firms appear to have languished in terms of output and profits.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 20, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Prospects for the three legs in the global economic stool – the U.S., euro area and China – remain upbeat.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part II): The Next Wave – October 19, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series, updating our submerging world theme. Part I outlined the ramifications resulting from the mushrooming and subsequent erosion of this segment of the global economy over the past decade.
Webcast – A Saudi Devaluation: No Longer Unthinkable (5min:35sec) – October 18, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the mounting risk of a Saudi currency devaluation.
Emerging Markets – Saudi Arabia Doubles Down – October 17, 2017
· Commodities · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
The Saudi regime faces spiralling threats from a demographic time bomb that implies internal political instability along with hazardous cross-currents of economic policy risks.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 13, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We examine the main cyclical risk factors and conclude that they are still not flashing warning signs.
Latam Report – Opportunities Loom For Latam – October 12, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
A number of interesting investment opportunities will emerge in Latam financial markets once the final U.S. dollar cyclical upleg reaches its apex, and a China-related air pocket in commodity pits is out of the way.
China – Ignore Politics, Focus On Housing – October 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
The Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Party Congress kicks off next week, which will result in a massive turnover of the country’s top political and military leadership.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – October 5, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
A synchronized global trade cycle is traditionally the single most accurate indicator for EM currency outperformance.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 29, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shifting trends in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could create near-term capital market turbulence.
Webcast – Politics Vs Economics And Regional Equity Positioning (7min:58sec) – September 27, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest regional equity outlook and recommendations
China – Reserve Currency Status: Can China Fake It ‘til It Makes It? – September 26, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. dollar weakness, an improving balance of payments and a solid domestic economy have all provided support for the Chinese yuan this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 22, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Cyclical prospects for the global stock/bond ratio will remain upbeat until the massive gap between interest rates and nominal GDP growth closes meaningfully.
Regional Equities (Quarterly) – September 21, 2017
· Equities ·
There has been a significant divergence in relative performance of regional equities recently because of U.S. dollar weakness.
Webcast – Boxed In – Oil Prices Will Be Range-Bound (7min:26sec) – September 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani digs into the economics of U.S. shale and finds an oil market hemmed in on all sides.
Commodities – A Boxed-In Oil Market – September 19, 2017
· Commodities ·
Today’s report digs into the economics of U.S. shale and finds an oil market hemmed in on all sides
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 15, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk appetite measures confirm that investors have become optimistic, but financial stress gauges are still upbeat.
Equities – Hong Kong Equities: Property Market Risks Loom Large – September 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Equities ·
Hong Kong property prices have been inflated by extremely low interest rates well beyond any reasonable valuation.
Emerging Market Equities Report – September, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have outperformed recently: should global multi-asset investors join the party?
Webcast – Geopolitical Jitters: De-Risking Not Yet Warranted (6min:36sec) – September 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses asset allocation and investment strategy amidst the challenging political/policy backdrop.
Asset Allocation Report – September 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
An essentially quiet summer season (Northern Hemisphere) in capital markets has given way to renewed
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – August 31, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Whenever the U.S. dollar index weakens, the relative performance of any non-dollar asset… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – August 24, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Typically, it has paid investors to be overweight EM currencies during periods when… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 18, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Political tensions remain elevated and could hold back risk assets further in the… Continue
Webcast – Asia Ex-Japan: Can Export Growth Trump Geopolitical Tensions? (5min:11sec) – August 16, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). August 16 after 2:00… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – August 15, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Tensions with North Korea have weighed on global risk assets and Asian Ex-Japan… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 11, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports From a big-picture perspective, many risk assets are becoming progressively inflated as the… Continue
Emerging Markets – EM Dollar Debt: A Relative Value Play – August 8, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Emerging market dollar debt (EMD$) survived a bout of commodity weakness earlier this… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – August 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Many investors fear that the bull market in risk assets is in increasing… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – July 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global macro backdrop remains favorable for equities and other risk assets, while… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 28, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The cyclical backdrop remains positive for equities and mildly negative for bonds. The… Continue
China – A Softer, Gentler Chinese Housing Bust – July 27, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s housing market has held up somewhat better than expected, but the national… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 21, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Recent currency strength may delay/mute the move by non-U.S. central banks to become… Continue
China – China’s Political Transition: “Core” Strength Or Institutional Resilience? – July 18, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Sometime later this year, most of China’s top political leaders will be replaced… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 14, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Reduce bonds to maximum underweight within a multi-asset portfolio, while boosting cash to… Continue
Webcast – EM Equities: Curb Your Enthusiasm, But Dig Deeper (6min:27sec) – July 12, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). July 12 after 2:00… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – July 11, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
China – China’s Technology Sector Has Gone BAT-ty – July 6, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese technology stocks have massively outperformed the country benchmark this year. The FANG… Continue
Webcast – The Monetary Message (8min:59sec) – July 5, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). July 5 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – July 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports A bumpy path is likely in the near term, but continue to overweight… Continue
Emerging Markets – When China And Commodities Falter, Which EM Assets Benefit? – June 29, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports A likely 20% decline in the broad commodity price indexes and/or a meaningful… Continue
Webcast – The Equity Market Rotation Lure (8min:06sec) – June 21, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 21 after… Continue
Regional Equities (Quarterly) – June 15, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports We remain constructive about the outlook for global equities, expecting prices to rise… Continue
Webcast – China Sneezes: Do EM Currencies Catch Cold? (6min:25sec) – June 14, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). June 14 after 2:00… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – June 13, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Webcast – It’s The Economy… (8min:44sec) – June 7, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 7 after… Continue
China – A Tale Of Two Chinese Bond Markets: Are Foreign Investors Too Complacent? – June 6, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s domestic corporate bond yields and spreads have increased in recent months as… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – June 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Some bumps are likely in the near run, but the fundamentals point to… Continue
Long-Term Returns Report – May 25, 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Real returns on balanced portfolios will be low in the coming decade, on… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 19, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. political risks have increased and could trigger a risk-off phase. Equity leadership… Continue
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – May 18, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Webcast – The Outlook For EM Equity And Debt (6min:30sec) – May 17, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite ReportsClick here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 17 after 2:00 pm… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 12, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Near-run concerns aside, the 6-12 month outlook for the global stock/bond ratio is… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – May 9, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 28, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Euro area prospects improved this week, and we expect the growth gap between… Continue
Emerging Markets – India: Structural Reforms And Roadblocks – April 18, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports India’s structural reform agenda remains on track, and should benefit from Prime Minister… Continue
Webcast – Near-Term Risks, Long-Term Opportunities (11min:48sec) – April 12, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). April 12 after 2:00… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – April 11, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
China – Three Trackers For A Multispeed Economy – April 6, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports We introduce a scaled-back version of the MRB China Economic Activity Indicator that… Continue
Webcast – EM Dollar Debt And Mexico: Overweight Now, Diverge Later (9min:26sec) – March 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 22 after… Continue
Emerging Markets – Tequila Sunrise: Upgrade Mexico – March 21, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Firming U.S. non-oil imports will boost Mexican growth momentum, narrow the current account… Continue
Emerging Markets – EM Dollar Debt: Still A Commodity Play – March 14, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Narrowing EM dollar debt (EMD$) spreads and double-digit returns over the past year… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 10, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global economic backdrop is brighter than has been the case for several… Continue
China – China Economy: The Revenge Of Rebalancing – March 9, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese investment growth is likely to slow in 2017, led by real estate… Continue
Webcast – Brightening EM Equity Outlook, But With A Caveat (5min:55sec) – March 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 8 after… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – March 7, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Eastern Europe: A High Beta Play On The Euro Area Recovery? – March 2, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Idiosyncratic factors have lowered the region’s beta to the euro area economy, and… Continue
Webcast – Another Bite At The Brazilian Cherry (7min:11sec) – March 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 1 after… Continue
Global Fixed Income Report – February 23, 2017
· Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports A comparison with previous market selloffs suggests that DM government bonds have likely… Continue
Emerging Markets – Brazil Bonds: Another Bite At The Cherry? – February 21, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Stay overweight Brazil in an EM fixed-income portfolio with a bias to downgrade…. Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – February 17, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global trade is gradually recovering, which will help sustain the cyclical uptrend in… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – February 10, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The consolidation in risk asset prices may persist, given overextended technical conditions and… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – February 9, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – February 2, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 20, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The pause in the dollar, bond yields, and equity & corporate bond prices… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – January 19, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Webcast – EM Local Fixed Income: Choose Your Driver, And Stay Underweight (7min:14sec) – January 18, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 18 after 2:00… Continue
China – Can China Tolerate Higher Interest Rates? – January 17, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese interest rates are likely to drift higher over the next 12 months,… Continue
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Position For Commodity Prices, Not Fed Policy – January 12, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Mexico’s Trumped Peso: Is It A Buy? – December 15, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports While credit quality has deteriorated, the odds of another peso crisis are very… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – December 6, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Market Latam Equities Report – November 23, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – November 15, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Will The Yuan Be Trumped? – November 14, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Trump’s victory means that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are likely, which would… Continue
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Currency Volatility Still Drives Returns – November 1, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
China – How China’s Property Boom Goes Bust (Again) – October 11, 2016
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s property boom has reaccelerated in recent months, which may push back the… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – October 6, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Myth Busting The Mexican Peso – September 20, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports While credit quality has deteriorated, the odds of another peso crisis are very… Continue
South Africa Report – August 30, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Growth will remain weak but the external backdrop is currently supportive of South… Continue
Emerging Markets – Assessing Credit Quality For EM Government Bonds – August 18, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – August 9, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
China – China Economy: Prepare For A Rough Landing – August 3, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s property market looks set for a cyclical decline sometime in the next… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – July 19, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Temporarily hold Asia Ex-Japan at an underweight position within a global equity portfolio… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – July 7, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Are India And Indonesia The Next China? – June 23, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports With structural reforms and appropriate macro policy, Indian growth could rise to about… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – June 14, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Why Saudi Reforms Matter For Global Investors – June 2, 2016
· Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Saudi Arabia is being propelled by cheap oil and rivalry with Iran into… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – May 19, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – How China’s Economic Transition Is Reshaping The World – May 5, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s economy has started to transition toward using stuff more efficiently (what we… Continue
China – Chinese Banks: Betting On A Bailout – April 12, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports China is very unlikely to experience an imminent financial crisis, even without a… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – April 5, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Is There A Brazilian Buy? – March 15, 2016
· Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Left to its own devices, growth will continue deteriorating, albeit less so than… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – March 8, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – March 3, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Replay of 1998-2000 – February 11, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The selloff in risk assets has intensified and exhibits many characteristics similar to… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – February 2, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Objectivism In Riyadh: Three Saudi Questions For Global Investors – January 11, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports There are low odds of a Saudi Riyal devaluation in 2016 despite the… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – December 15, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – December 1, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – November 17, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – October 27, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – A Tale Of Two Chinas: Making Sense Of The Economic Transition – October 13, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese growth will continue to slow and defaults will rise over the next… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – September 29, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – September 15, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – August 25, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange – Yuan Move Is Not The Opening Shot In A Global Currency War – August 12, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s primary objective in Tuesday’s policy move was to align the yuan fixing… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – July 30, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Are EM Local Debt Markets Over-Loved By Foreigners? – July 21, 2015
· Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports The effects of passive outflows from government bonds during the impending global bond… Continue
Emerging Markets – Asia Ex-Japan Equities: Primed To Outperform – July 7, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – June 30, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – May 28, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – The EM Earnings Matrix – May 19, 2015
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Recent compositional shifts within EM imply that the key earnings drivers are now… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – April 30, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – March 31, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Latin America: Time For Bottom-Fishing? – March 3, 2015
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports The unwinding of the Commodity Supercycle will keep Latam growth weak over the… Continue
Emerging Markets – Measuring EM Capital Flows – February 24, 2015
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports While FDI inflows to the EM world will improve modestly, portfolio capital flows… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – January 29, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – January 13, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Asian Debt: Immune From “EM” Style Crises, But… – November 11, 2014
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Private sector debt levels have risen sharply across most of emerging Asia in… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – October 28, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – The Return Of “Chindia”? – October 7, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports India’s long-term growth is likely to be driven by investment and manufacturing, while… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – September 16, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – EM Assets And Fed Tightening: Hide, Then Seek – August 5, 2014
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports A Fed rate hike is likely by mid-2015, and in anticipation of this… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – July 31, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – EM Structural Reform: The Next Catalyst? – June 24, 2014
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Structural reform does not, at this time, constitute a catalyst for upgrading EM… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – April 24, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Equities – Value And Catalysts In EM Equity – April 15, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports EM equities offer pockets of value, but mostly relative to developed market equities…. Continue
Geopolitics – Russia And Europe: Back To The Future, Not The End Of History – March 11, 2014
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Ukraine crisis highlights the fragility of the post-Cold War globalization trend Russia’s… Continue
Emerging Market Foreign Exchange Report – February 11, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Underlying conditions do not support currency contagion in the EM world. However, volatility… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – January 16, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies: Stay With Commodity Importers – November 14, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each country section (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Emerging Market Equities: Secular & Cyclical Reality Check – October 15, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors should stay underweight EM equities in the near term, but the cyclical… Continue
Emerging Market Equities (Quarterly) – October 3, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies: Prefer Commodity Importers – August 1, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each country section (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Market Equities (Quarterly) – July 25, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – How To Position In EM US$ Sovereign Debt – July 16, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Stay maximum overweight EM U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign debt in global portfolios. We expect… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies: Paid To Wait For Growth – May 2, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each country section (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Market Equities (Quarterly) – April 4, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – EM Inflation: Temporarily Constrained – March 26, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports A benign food price environment implies that overall EM price inflation will remain… Continue
Theme – Emerging Market Corporate Earnings: Solid & Sustainable – February 26, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Emerging market companies generate earnings consistent with the superior economic growth of the… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies To Outperform: A Shopping List – February 7, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports A recovering global trade cycle implies that the pressure to competitively devalue in… Continue
Emerging Market Equities (Quarterly) – January 24, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Stay overweight EM equities in a global equity portfolio and look to augment… Continue
Emerging Market Equities (Quarterly) – October 9, 2012
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports EM equity market drivers have not yet shifted from liquidity to growth. Retain… Continue
Emerging Market Equities (Quarterly) – July 31, 2012
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports While pockets of growth exist in the EM world, overall momentum is disappointing…. Continue
Theme – EM Consumption LeaderShift (Part II): The Tiger Is Ready To Roar Again – July 3, 2012
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Recent declines in food and oil prices are massive positives for EM consumption…. Continue
Theme – Global LeaderShift: EM Consumption (Part I) – June 26, 2012
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s high savings and investment rates imply that it is underconsuming relative to… Continue
Emerging Market Equities (Quarterly) – April 24, 2012
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Attractive valuations will be unlocked by a narrowing policy rate differential between EM… Continue
Emerging Market Equities (Quarterly) –January 24, 2012
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports We remain overweight emerging markets (EM) within a global equity portfolio. We recommend… Continue
Emerging Market Equities (Quarterly) – October 25, 2011
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to view our Asset Allocation Recommendations table We maintain a neutral… Continue
Emerging Market Equities (Quarterly) – July 26, 2011
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to view our Asset Allocation Recommendations table This is MRB’s first… Continue