2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022


emerging-markets

 

2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.



 

2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.



 

Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.



 

Emerging Markets – The Lula Pivot – November 18, 2022
Emerging Markets · 

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Commodities – Buckle Your Seatbelts: The Oil Market Is Re-entering Another Period of Instability – November18, 2022
Commodities · Emerging Markets · 

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Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.



 

Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.



 

China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Will Trump Dollar Debt – October 27, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Spreads for EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have come screaming in over the past three months



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can EM Continue To Outperform DM (ex-U.S.)? – October 20, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is king. To be fair, this has been the case only for the fourth time since the early-1970s



 

Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue



 

Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.



 

Brazil – Defying Gravity – October 10, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazilian assets rallied after last week’s general election as the worst-case scenario for financial markets, in which former President Lula secures a first-round victory, was avoided. Therefore, the favorable relative growth backdrop which has been driving outperformance will remain intact.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.



 

China – Baby Steps To Evolving COVID-Zero – October 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

It may still only be a baby step, and by global standards it is a barely perceptible one.



 

Commodities – Oil Prices: From Shocks To Cyclical Analysis – September 30, 2022
Commodities · 

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Global Fixed Income – A Global Bond Market Riot Erupts – September 29, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The Bank of England has, temporarily, arrested a riot in the U.K. Gilt market that was threatening all major government bond markets.



 

Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
 · Equities · 

Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.



 

Webcast – Growth Concerns Are Driving Currencies – (11min:22sec) – September 27, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets, leveraging some of the research in this month’s global foreign exchange report.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.



 

China – Pragmatic Policy In Hibernation – September 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 until 1992, famously said “no matter if it is a white cat or a black cat, so long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat”



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Stick With Selective High-Yielders – August 25, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Global inflation rates are mathematically certain to decline in the months ahead, thanks to base effects and lower energy costs.



 

China – COVID-Zero Implies Continuing Economic Pain – August 4, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Prospects for a strong reopening recovery in China are evaporating in the face of the authorities’ obstinate attachment to a COVID-zero policy



 

China – What Reopening? China’s Recovery Will Be Modest – July 22, 2022
Emerging Markets · 

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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Finding Shelter From The Dollar’s Chokehold – July 13, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The dominance of the U.S. dollar has become so pervasive in EM currency markets that allocations to EM offer very little diversification in a global currency portfolio



 

Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
 · Equities · 

After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.