MacroResearchBoard

emerging-markets

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Resilient And Poised To Outperform – March 23, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The return outlook for both EM local currency (EMLCD) and U.S. dollar debt may appear unappealing at first glance given how tight spreads are against their U.S. counterparts.

Theme – Making Money During China’s Demographic Decline – March 21, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Themes · 

China’s official population count for 2022 was published in January and showed 9.6m births, outweighed by 10.4m deaths.

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Better Growth Supports EM Currency Appreciation – March 16, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

We continue to see good odds of improving global growth conditions this year, with a reopening in China now gaining momentum…

China – Surveys Show Recovery, Hard Data Will Follow – March 9, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

“Soft” data from surveys are showing China’s robust recovery is underway, but the usual seasonal distortions in hard data make it difficult to calibrate the implications for overall economic momentum for the time being.

Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

Emerging Market Equities – More Than Just A China Bounce? – February 28, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

With China’s earnings momentum already improving and a material economic rebound under way this year, Chinese stocks are well set to outperform their EM and DM peers.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.

Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.

Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
 · Equities · 

There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…

Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.

Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.

Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue

China – Services Rebound, Broader Consumption Should Follow – February 9, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

The traditional travel boom during the Lunar New Year holiday period took place in January…

Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.

Korea – Export Recovery Papers The Cracks, For Now – January 26, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Korea’s equity market massively underperformed emerging market peers (EM), leaving valuations at extremely attractive levels…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Goldilocks Favors EM Debt – January 19, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

For an investor whose only insight into the EM debt asset class is a chart plotting the spread between EM debt and U.S. Treasury bonds…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Will Break Free Of The Dollar’s Chokehold In 2023 – January 12, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a dizzying array of global economic forces that have dominated the EM currency landscape.

Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.

China – Re-Opening Is Palpable, If Not Yet Measurable – January 5, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

High frequency data and anecdotal evidence suggest that Chinese workers and consumers are shaking off the tsunami of infections arising from the sudden abandonment of the COVID-zero policy.

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.

2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
 · Equities · 

A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.

2023 China Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…

Roundtable – 2023 Outlook For Emerging Market Investing – (60min:00sec) – December 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing MRB’s views for economic growth and asset markets in the emerging markets, covering the following topics:

2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.

2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…