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developed-markets

Economics & Policy – Contracting U.S. M2: Less To It Than Meets The Eye – April 21, 2023
Economics & Policy · 

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Policy – U.S. Fiscal Policy Outlook: Tough Choices Loom – April 20, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The federal budget is on an unsustainable path based on current law and mainstream expectations about the long-term economic outlook.

U.S. Equities – Earnings Outlook: Can Sales Expectations Hold Up? – April 19, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. corporate earnings will remain in the spotlight in the next few weeks as more companies report first-quarter numbers.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.

MRB TradeBook – Taking Profits On Short Oil – April 14, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere is one change to the MRB TradeBook this week: CLOSED – Short Brent… Continue

Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.

U.S. Equities – Economic Concerns Mount, But Too Early To Go All-In On Defensives – April 5, 2023
 · Equities · 

Strains in the banking system have raised concerns about a retrenchment in bank lending, with negative implications for the broader U.S. economy.

Foreign Exchange – Higher Interest Rates Will Snap The Weak Link Currencies – April 4, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Weak-link economies are at increasing risk of experiencing a recession triggered by higher borrowing rates.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Back To Pre-SVB Levels? – March 31, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain constructive on global economic prospects for the next 6-12 months, and do not expect much fallout from this month’s banking problems.

Webcast – The Toppling Of Economic Dominos – (8min:26sec) – March 30, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar provides a contrast between the current macro environment compared to that of the 2010s.

Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Positioning – March 30, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, but we expect the banking sector stresses to soon die down and for the global economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace.

Global Fixed Income – Snapping Weak Links – March 29, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

Volatility in the U.S. and G7 government bond markets has surged again in response to U.S. and European banking system strains.

Economy – U.S. Bank Outflows: Not That Alarming For The Economy – March 29, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report takes a closer look at flows out of U.S. banks and into money market funds in the aftermath of the heightened banking sector stress that followed from two prominent bank failures earlier this month.

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…

MRB TradeBook – Rapid Volatility Shift – March 24, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Angst associated with the potential for a global banking crisis has diminished a… Continue

U.S. Equities – Changes To The GICS® Structure: What Investors Need To Know – March 22, 2023
 · Equities · 

Changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) will be made in the coming months.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tip Of The Iceberg, Or Only A Brief Interruption? – March 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-off backdrop could persist in the near term, until banking fears start to subside.

Fed Policy – Juggling Mandates Will Not Lead To Rate Cuts This Year – March 17, 2023
Economics & Policy · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Interest Rate Normalization & Global Financial Stocks – March 15, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

There are still widespread recession concerns, entrenched optimism on much lower inflation, and investors are generally confused about where we are in the economic and investment cycle.

Webcast – U.S. Bank Stocks: Idiosyncratic Rather Than Systemic Risks – (9min:29sec) – March 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the implications of recent developments in the banking industry and their impact on U.S. bank stocks.

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.

MRB TradeBook – Taking Profits – March 10, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsMarket volatility has caused us to take profits on three positions this week, these… Continue

U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Addressing Three Popular Questions – March 9, 2023
 · Equities · 

Rising interest rates bring both opportunities and risks for the banking industry.

Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

Global Foreign Exchange – A Different Year For The U.S. Dollar – March 7, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S dollar decline has stabilized as of late on the back of a further rise in U.S. interest rates compared to other markets and related risk-off phase.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.

MRB TradeBook – New Equity Pair Trade – March 3, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsLong U.S. Industrials Vs Consumer Discretionary Stocks: U.S. industrials have started to outperform their… Continue

Economy – U.S. Housing: Premature Optimism – March 2, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing market activity dropped sharply alongside higher mortgage rates last year…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.