MacroResearchBoard

developed-markets

2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.

2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…

Economy – U.S. Consumption: Will Exceed Expectations, Again – December 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Amid high inflation, tighter financial conditions, and concerns over an impending economic slowdown, U.S. consumer spending has remained fairly resilient this year.

Global Foreign Exchange – 2023 FX Outlook: Selectivity Will Be Key – November 29, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

A successful FX strategy in 2023 will entail a major change in tactics, as oversold and undervalued currencies are set to regain strength against the historically overextended U.S. dollar.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.

Equities – Encouraging Signs From The Euro Area – November 25, 2022
Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  

U.S. Equities – The Implications Of A Desynchronized U.S. Profit Cycle – November 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The U.S. profit cycle has decelerated sharply this year after a period of extraordinary growth following the re-opening of the economy in 2021.

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Patience And Realism Required – (12min:48sec) – November 22, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns and the implications for strategic asset allocation over the next decade.

Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;

MRB TradeBook – Update On Risk-On Positioning – November 18, 2022
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  

Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…

Webcast – Investment Implications Of Interest Rate Normalization – (11min:00sec) – November 16, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar outlines frameworks for understanding the process of interest rate normalization…

Charts – U.S. Labor Market: A Gradual Slowdown – November 15, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. labor market momentum is cooling alongside the unwinding of monetary policy, but the labor market is still historically tight.

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.

Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Is All The Bad News Discounted? – November 8, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. semiconductor stocks have posted big losses in 2022, with the semiconductor & semi-equipment index falling nearly 40% year-to-date on growing fears of a recession.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.

Policy – U.S. Fed: Smaller Hikes, But For Longer – November 3, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued a fourth consecutive 75 bps rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting but signaled a step-down in the pace of rate increases at upcoming policy meetings.

Webcast – U.S. Consumer Discretionary Stocks Will Remain Challenged – (11min:11sec) – November 2, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti examines the outlook for U.S. consumer discretionary stocks.

Foreign Exchange – Favor The Euro Versus Currencies In Weak Link Economies – November 2, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The backdrop for the euro area could become much brighter than is currently anticipated…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…

U.S. Equities – Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Too Early To Get More Constructive – October 27, 2022
 · Equities · 

We entered 2022 with an underweight recommendation on the U.S. consumer discretionary sector.

Policy – U.S: Inflation Will Complicate A Fed Pivot – October 25, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Persistent upside surprises in core CPI inflation through Q3 have fueled a debate on whether an outsize lagged rise in rent inflation is exaggerating inflation’s strength.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.

Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.

Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue

Webcast – Elevated Inflation Has Made Central Banks Blindly Hawkish – (5min:00sec) – October 18, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, we discuss monetary policy based on last week’s MRB Research Highlight, that “tighter” monetary policy is still required in the developed world.

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.