developed-markets


 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.



 

2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy



 

U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: A Fed Pause Is Not An All-Clear Signal To Buy – November 21, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. real estate stocks have taken a beating in recent years. The sector, which is mostly comprised of REITs…



 

Global Equities – How Long Can Goldilocks Last? – November 21, 2023
 · Equities · 

Our constructive economic outlook provides scope for global equities to move higher in the near term…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tweaking Some Positions – November 17, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsU.S. health care stocks have underperformed the broad market in recent days causing us… Continue



 

U.S. Economy – Key Indicators – November 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Recent data show that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a decent pace, supporting our view that a U.S. recession remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.



 

Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.



 

Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.



 

MRB TradeBook – Some Tactical Changes – November 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

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Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.



 

Foreign Exchange – The Euro Will Continue To Appreciate Versus Weak-Link Currencies – November 7, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While it has not been an easy year for the euro, the currency has still managed to appreciate versus key weak-link currencies, in line with our projections.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.



 

MRB TradeBook – Navigating The Volatility Shift – November 3, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsShifts in both equity and bond volatility have triggered several changes in the MRB… Continue



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Stepping Aside Without Declaring It – November 2, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged for the second consecutive FOMC meeting yesterday.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…



 

Commodities – Modestly Higher Crude Oil Prices Ahead – October 27, 2023
 · Commodities · 

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Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

U.S. Equities – Still Premature To Increase Defensive Positioning Beyond Health Care – October 24, 2023
 · Equities · 

Defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and health care have all lagged the broad U.S. equity market year-to-date.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.



 

Theme – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
 · Themes · 

The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.



 

Fixed Income – Focus On Rates Not The Slope Of The Yield Curve – October 19, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

There has been a notable increase in chatter about the implications of the recent steepening or de-inverting of the U.S. 2/10 Treasury curve, with some arguing it signals that a recession looms.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – October 13, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe added some long energy positions in July based on our expectation that the… Continue



 

Fixed Income – U.S.: Parsing The Upside In Treasury Yields – October 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The meaningful rise in U.S. long-term bond yields since April has been driven by both cyclical and noncyclical factors.



 

Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.



 

MRB TradeBook – Mini Replay Of 2022 – October 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe are making some changes to the MRB TradeBook in response to the recent… Continue