MacroResearchBoard

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U.S. Economy – Key Indicators – December 3, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. economic momentum is improving heading into 2022. Real consumption is powering ahead despite stronger inflation and the phasing-out of government income transfers

Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.

MRB TradeBook Update – December 3, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Webcast – Navigating The COVID-19 Roller Coaster – (9min:19sec) – December 1, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses how the emergence of the Omicron variant impacts U.S. investment strategy

Commodities – Oil Prices To Normalize In 2022 – November 30, 2021
 · Commodities · 

It may appear counter-intuitive, given how much unused capacity persists among the world’s oil producers, but the world is currently experiencing an oil shortage.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: The End Of An Era – November 26, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. Equities – Setting The Tone For 2022 – November 24, 2021
 · Equities · 

The overall macro backdrop will become less favorable for the equity market in the year ahead.

Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns

Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.

Fixed Income – The U.S. Treasury Curve: Temporary Divergence Or Another Conundrum? – November 19, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.

Asset Allocation – The Fate Of The 60/40 Portfolio – November 18, 2021
Asset Allocation · 

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Economy – U.S. Inflation: The Transitory Story Is Losing Traction – November 16, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inflation is showing no signs of reversing its post-pandemic surge.

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.

Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets

Economy – How Much Is Transitory? – November 11, 2021
Economics & Policy · 

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Webcast – The Fed Is Finally Rethinking Inflation – (6min:17sec) – November 10, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. monetary policy in the context of this year’s sharp rise in U.S. inflation that has challenged the Fed’s dovish bias.

U.S. Equities – Will Rising Bond Yields Pummel Tech Stocks? – November 9, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. technology stocks and growth equities more generally have been enormous beneficiaries of financial repression and the low interest rate environment that has prevailed since the Great Financial Crisis.

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets

Policy – U.S. Inflation: The Fed Has Cornered Itself – November 4, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting

Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt: Assessing Risks After The Binge – November 3, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Public finances across the developed world have deteriorated markedly over the past 10-15 years, as government debt mushroomed to provide an offset for the Great Recession and then to offset the COVID-19 fallout.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period

MRB TradeBook Update – October 29, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Fixed Income – Fed Tapering: Receding Support For U.S. Treasurys – October 29, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. Equities – Semiconductor & Semi Equipment Stocks: Risks To The Cycle Are Piling Up – October 27, 2021
 · Equities · 

After a huge run in the second half of 2020, the relative performance of U.S. semiconductor stocks has leveled off this year.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).

Equities – Global Equities: More Bang For The Buck Than Perceived? – October 22, 2021
Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.

Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.