Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021


developed-markets

 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.



 

Equities – Global Earnings: Catch Up Or Stick With Mo? – July 30, 2021
Equities · 

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Economic Note – Q2 GDP: Sounder Than It Seemed – Economic Note – July 29, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. real GDP grew a bit slower than expected in Q2 but this does not imply that the economy is on a weaker-than-expected cyclical trajectory.



 

Roundtable – Navigating An Expensive Market – (76min:51sec) – July 28, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this Roundtable, MRB’s U.S. Equity Sector Strategist, Salvatore Ruscitti, discussed the outlook for the U.S. equity market and valuation risks and opportunities across a number of sectors.



 

Euro Area – Equities: Sustainable Earnings Uptrend After A Lost Decade – July 27, 2021
 · Equities · 

Extrapolating the euro area earnings outlook based on last decade’s performance is misguided.



 

U.S. Equities – The Reflation Trade Is Not Over – July 23, 2021
 · Equities · 

The spread of COVID-19 variants and peak growth momentum have fueled anxiety about the global economic outlook, boosted government bonds, and spurred a rotation out of cyclical stocks and into secular growth plays.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Peak Growth, Not Peak Earnings – July 23, 2021
Equities · 

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Euro Area – Economy: Reasons For Some Optimism – July 22, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investor expectations for the euro area have been depressed by a decade largely characterized by a disinflationary funk.



 

Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.



 

Webcast – U.S. Inflation: Drilling Through The Noise – (7min:49sec) – July 20, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide highlights the prospects for U.S. inflation, contextualizing inflation’s sustainable outlook with noisy incoming inflation data.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.



 

Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
 · Themes · 

This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Watch The Rising Underlying Trend – July 14, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With CPI inflation surprising sharply on the upside for the third consecutive month in June, the debate over whether the pickup in inflation could prove durable, as opposed to transitory (as the Fed believes), is likely to heat up further.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – July 9, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
 · Equities · 

The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – July 2, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.



 

Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.



 

U.S. Economy – Indicators To Watch -June 30, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With U.S. COVID-19 infections holding low and fiscal transfers providing continued support, the U.S. recovery gathered momentum in Q2, with real GDP likely growing by around 10% annualized.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – June 25, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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Equity Sectors – U.S. Bank Stocks: Buy On Weakness – June 25, 2021
 · Equities · 

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Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.



 

Webcast – Fed Policy: A Step Back From “FAIT”? – (8min:21sec) – June 23, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the broad implications of the hawkish shift in the Fed’s policy stance at last week’s FOMC meeting.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.



 

Webinar – Understanding Digital Currencies – (75min:16sec) – June 17, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Absolute Return & Foreign Exchange Strategist, Santiago Espinosa, discussing the myths and “fundamentals” driving cryptocurrencies…