MacroResearchBoard
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China – Don’t Fear “Chinese Deflation” – September 12, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
An entrenched negative narrative about China’s economy, together with manifest difficulties for steel, coal and cement producers reeling from the housing sector recession…
Webcast – The Center Will Hold – (11min:49sec) – September 11, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation on a 6-12 month horizon.
Emerging Market Equities – Earnings Are Outperforming, Prices Will Follow – September 10, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The stars are aligning for EM stocks, and we expect that several factors will combine and contribute to the outperformance of the asset class over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Powell Signals Green Light For Risk – September 6, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Equity markets have been in a sour mood this week, but the U.S. economic expansion will continue and the looming start of a Fed interest rate cutting cycle reinforces a pro-risk investment climate that is set to prevail on a 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – When The Dust Settles – August 9, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run financial market outlook is clouded by the abrupt souring in investor sentiment related to increased bearishness on the U.S. economic outlook.
MRB TradeBook – Material Swings In Volatility – August 9, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
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China – Stocks In A Funk Despite Earnings Turnaround – August 8, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
The Third Plenum came and went last month, with lengthy speeches about the economy and no actionable insight.
Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: Risks Are Skewed To The Downside – July 30, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has been range-bound for almost two years, albeit with some bouts of strength but only against interest rate-sensitive or weak-link currencies and the yen.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Reversals Of Fortune – July 26, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
What had looked likely to be a quiet balance of the summer has given way to new uncertainties in the forms of recent selling pressure among technology/A.I. stocks and the withdrawal of President Biden from the election this November.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Stick With High Yielders – July 25, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local-currency and U.S. dollar-denominated debt will resume outperformance within a global fixed-income portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Overbought Conditions Will Persist Until Bond Markets Weaken Anew – July 12, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A dovish Fed and another low-side CPI print will keep DM bond markets calm. The latter are supportive of credit and equity markets, despite overbought conditions.
China – Might Earnings Be Turning The Corner? – July 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
The PBoC now claims that it wants to see higher bond yields, although it is not obvious whether such an outcome is in their gift.
Webcast – Summer Grind – (10min:16sec) – July 10, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Dog That Didn’t Bark – July 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The U.S. economy is downshifting from its prior brisk pace, but forecasts of an impending period of outright weakness or even recession are misplaced.
Emerging Market Equities – Trade Recovery Will Sustain The Upside For Stocks – June 27, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Global trade is recovering, despite a rising tide of protectionism. EM stocks typically outperform when trade is strengthening…
Webcast – Dealing With Equity Market Distortions – (11min:54sec) – June 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global equities and appropriate regional equity positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Riding The Coattails Of Improving Global Trade – June 20, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM domestic growth and policy drivers are already supportive of EMFX, and many EM currencies have appreciated against the U.S. dollar over the past 12-18 months.
China – Economic Momentum Firms – June 13, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Investors taking note of the firming of China’s economic momentum will probably be rewarded by placing their bets on this recovery outside the country for the time being.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The End Is Not Nigh – June 7, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
While the catalyst for an end of the economic expansion is not yet in place, the investment landscape is likely to be choppy over the next 6-12 months…
Long-Term Returns – A Reckoning Is Inevitable – May 30, 2024
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This old saw is especially relevant as the macro drivers of strong capital market returns over most of the past 40 years no longer pertain.
Webinar – Emerging Markets: Navigating Global Cross Currents – (61min:41sec) – May 22, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
As the global trade cycle recovers and China’s growth firms, the backdrop for EM assets appears solid.
China – Stocks Rally Just As Earnings Fade – May 9, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
It is rare for the momentum of stock prices and of forward earnings to move in opposite directions, but the current rally in Chinese stocks appears to be led by domestic retail investors…
Webcast – The Economy, Not The Fed Will Drive Markets – (13min:02sec) – May 7, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Bank On Fed Rate Cuts – May 3, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Swings in expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to drive global capital market performance.
Emerging Market Equities – EM Stocks Will Outperform As Global Trade Recovers – April 25, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
With the level of imports rising in the U.S., China and Japan (albeit not yet in the euro area) a recovery in the global trade cycle is now a reality rather than a forecast.
China – Earnings Are Lagging The Economy – April 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
In the face of near-universal bearishness among the chattering classes overseas about its economic prospects…
Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Any Juice Left To Squeeze? – April 4, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local currency debt (EMLCD) and its US$-denominated counterpart (EM$D) have sharply outperformed U.S. and G7 government bonds over the past two years.
Regional Equities – Market Broadening Will Continue – March 28, 2024
· Equities ·
The latest dovish rhetoric from the Fed is a “green light” for risk taking and will support global equities in the near run, especially since global growth momentum is improving.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Long-Run Tailwind For Treasury Yields – March 28, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Signs of froth have emerged, but risk-on should persist until the next sustained rise in DM government bond yields develops, which we do not expect in the coming months.
Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Free Money Era Is Officially Over – March 22, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Further near-run upside is probable in risk asset markets.
Economy – China’s Merchandise Exports Are Recovering, Just As “Deflation” Disappears – March 22, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
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China – CSI 300 Stocks Are Stirring – March 7, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Although the U.S. stock market continues to outperform all its foreign competitors, including China, this performance has been driven by the extraordinary gains of a handful of mega-cap stocks that carry significant valuation risk.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Export Revival Heralds EMFX Outperformance – February 29, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Investors have been operating under the assumption that stronger U.S. growth (and subsequently higher U.S. Treasury yields) inevitably leads to weaker EM currencies, judging by recent negative correlation between the two.
Emerging Market Equities – The Stars Align For EM ex-China – February 22, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
What to do about cheap and unloved Chinese stocks? We recognize that many foreign investors have relegated China to “non-investable” status…
China – Defibrillator Applied To Equities, Again – February 8, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese policymakers have once again applied the defibrillator to stock market sentiment.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Downgrade Alert(s) – January 26, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. economic conditions do not warrant lower policy rates, and such conditions are not likely to develop in 2024.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Another Positive Year Ahead – January 23, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM government debt, both local currency (EMLCD) and US$-denominated (EM$D), handily outperformed their developed market (DM) counterparts last year…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks Is At Risk – January 19, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The front-running of DM policy rate cuts has eased only slightly of late, and is still far too aggressive relative to the economic/inflation outlook.
China – Reform Chatter Fails To Inspire Investors (So Far) – January 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Two recent events have raised the prospect that Chinese policymakers might be inclined to bite the bullet on significant structural reform.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.
2024 Regional Equities Outlook – Banking On Better Breadth – December 21, 2023
· Equities ·
Our constructive economic outlook points to a period of catch-up for this year’s laggards, although it will likely take time to develop.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.
2024 Emerging Market Equities Outlook – Global Trade Revival Will Favor EM – December 19, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM stocks tend to outperform their DM peers when global trade is sturdy, and the first signs of an upturn in global exports are already evident in the bellwether Korean and Taiwanese economies.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Learning Curve – December 8, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The aggressive front-running of the next rate-cutting cycle is working at cross purposes to monetary policy and will prolong the expansion, as signaled by the sharp flip from risk-off to risk-on in recent weeks.
2024 China Outlook – Steady Growth Ahead – December 7, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Although few headlines in the financial media reflect this, 2023 was a year of solid, if patchy, economic growth momentum in China, which is closing out well ahead of mid-year consensus expectations.
2024 Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Outlook – Clearer Skies Ahead – December 5, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
EM currencies were resilient this year in the face of several exogenous headwinds, including rising U.S. Treasury yields…
Webinar – EM ex-China Behind The Wheel, China In The Backseat – (59min:33sec) – November 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek addressed the outlook for EM assets in absolute and relative terms over the coming 6-12 months.
Webcast – Developed Economies, Central Banks & Bonds: What To Expect In 2024? – (9min:37sec) – November 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for developed economies, central bank policies, and bond market performance.
2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.
MRB TradeBook – Some Tactical Changes – November 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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China – Growth: Half-Full, Or Half-Empty? – November 9, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Chinese household consumption is the new version of the analogy of the glass being half full or empty.
Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
Webcast – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – (7min:09sec) – November 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani looks at the outlook for emerging market equities.
Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Emerging Market Equities – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – October 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Apart from some strong but short-lived bursts of outperformance, EM stocks have underperformed their DM (mainly U.S.) peers on a trend basis for a long time.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: More Tailwinds – October 17, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM economic growth momentum is firming, which is credit-positive and has been historically accompanied by tightening EM bond spreads.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.
China – Recovery Steps Up A Notch – October 12, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
What will it take for foreign investors to shake off their bearishness on Chinese assets?
Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.
Mexico – Deglobalization And The Peso: Fact Versus Fiction – October 3, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Shifts in global supply chains have been one of the main characteristics of the current era of multipolarity and deglobalization.
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Will EM Rate Cuts End The Party? – September 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies will appreciate versus the dollar as investors come around to MRB’s no US. recession view and shift their focus to positive EM domestic currency drivers, namely strengthening relative growth momentum.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Emerging Market Equities – Time To Rotate To EM ex-China – August 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For those who have no mandated exposure to EM and make an undifferentiated call on the EM aggregate, we are continuing to recommend an overweight in EM stocks within a global equity portfolio.
Webcast – Hopes Dashed By Lack Of A China Property Bailout – (5min:45sec) – August 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani ran through some recent developments in China which have triggered a material market reaction.
China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.
Webcast – EM Debt: Solid Growth And Rate Cuts Sustain Outperformance – (8min:52sec) – August 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Amr Abdel Khalek discusses the outlook for emerging market government bonds.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Stars Align For EM Local-Currency Debt – July 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Emerging market (EM) growth will accelerate over the next 6-12 months, driven primarily by EM Asia.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Rate Cuts Are Coming – July 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
With conditions falling into place for a softening in the U.S. dollar’s cross rate with major DM currencies…
China – Undervalued And Unloved, But Undeniably Growing – July 13, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Second-quarter earnings results are about to start rolling in, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”
Emerging Market Equities – Get Ready To Rotate To EM ex-China – June 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The concept of a single “EM” asset class may well be out-dated (given that 60% of the index comprises China, Korea and Taiwan)…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…
Webcast – China: Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – (7min:40sec) – June 21, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.
China – Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – June 15, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Firming Growth And Rate Cuts Will Sustain Outperformance – June 1, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Firming growth (in the context of disinflation), especially in EM Asia, will improve credit risk of EM local currency debt (EMLCD) relative to DM peers.
Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Come For The Growth, Stay For The Rate Cuts – May 25, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The case for holding EM currencies is primarily predicated on their association with stronger growth and fewer risks to growth than their DM peers.
Webcast – China: Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – (7min:10sec) – May 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.
China – Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – May 11, 2023
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.
Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – May 5, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.
Webinar – Investing In EM: China? India? Or Neither? – (59min:17sec) – April 26, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Webinar featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing the outlook for EM investing.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.
Emerging Market Equities – It’s All About China, For Now – April 13, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In a world of constrained expectations and earnings counter-currents, EM stocks offer decent prospects for outperformance.
Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.
China – A “New” China: Growth Without Stimulus, Exports Or Housing – April 6, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
China’s reopening and economic recovery is finally observable in the hard economic data, rather than only from surveys.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Resilient And Poised To Outperform – March 23, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The return outlook for both EM local currency (EMLCD) and U.S. dollar debt may appear unappealing at first glance given how tight spreads are against their U.S. counterparts.
Theme – Making Money During China’s Demographic Decline – March 21, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
China’s official population count for 2022 was published in January and showed 9.6m births, outweighed by 10.4m deaths.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Better Growth Supports EM Currency Appreciation – March 16, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to see good odds of improving global growth conditions this year, with a reopening in China now gaining momentum…
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.
China – Surveys Show Recovery, Hard Data Will Follow – March 9, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
“Soft” data from surveys are showing China’s robust recovery is underway, but the usual seasonal distortions in hard data make it difficult to calibrate the implications for overall economic momentum for the time being.
Emerging Market Equities – More Than Just A China Bounce? – February 28, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
With China’s earnings momentum already improving and a material economic rebound under way this year, Chinese stocks are well set to outperform their EM and DM peers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.
Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
· Equities ·
There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…
Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.
Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.
Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
China – Services Rebound, Broader Consumption Should Follow – February 9, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
The traditional travel boom during the Lunar New Year holiday period took place in January…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Goldilocks Favors EM Debt – January 19, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
For an investor whose only insight into the EM debt asset class is a chart plotting the spread between EM debt and U.S. Treasury bonds…
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Will Break Free Of The Dollar’s Chokehold In 2023 – January 12, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a dizzying array of global economic forces that have dominated the EM currency landscape.
Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.
China – Re-Opening Is Palpable, If Not Yet Measurable – January 5, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
High frequency data and anecdotal evidence suggest that Chinese workers and consumers are shaking off the tsunami of infections arising from the sudden abandonment of the COVID-zero policy.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth
2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
· Equities ·
A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – December 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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2023 China Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…
Roundtable – 2023 Outlook For Emerging Market Investing – (60min:00sec) – December 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing MRB’s views for economic growth and asset markets in the emerging markets, covering the following topics:
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.
Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.
Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.
Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.
China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Will Trump Dollar Debt – October 27, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Spreads for EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have come screaming in over the past three months
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can EM Continue To Outperform DM (ex-U.S.)? – October 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is king. To be fair, this has been the case only for the fourth time since the early-1970s
Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
China – Baby Steps To Evolving COVID-Zero – October 6, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
It may still only be a baby step, and by global standards it is a barely perceptible one.
Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
· Equities ·
Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – September 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Although a recession over the 6-12 months has not been our base-case scenario, the odds of this outcome are increasing and will continue to climb if the rise in interest rate expectations persists unabated.
Emerging Market Equities – In Search Of Earnings Growth (At A Reasonable Price) – September 15, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Forward earnings growth is hard to find in the EM world, and is absent from three of its four major bourses
China – Pragmatic Policy In Hibernation – September 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 until 1992, famously said “no matter if it is a white cat or a black cat, so long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat”
Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Stick With Selective High-Yielders – August 25, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Global inflation rates are mathematically certain to decline in the months ahead, thanks to base effects and lower energy costs.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk-On For Now, But Only If Bonds Stay Calm – August 19, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A cooling in inflation after the spike in the past year will prolong the pause phase in government bond markets. This, in turn, will support equities and credit in the coming months.
Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.
Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.
China – COVID-Zero Implies Continuing Economic Pain – August 4, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Prospects for a strong reopening recovery in China are evaporating in the face of the authorities’ obstinate attachment to a COVID-zero policy
Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
· Themes ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.
China – What Reopening? China’s Recovery Will Be Modest – July 22, 2022
Emerging Markets ·
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Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
· Themes ·
The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Finding Shelter From The Dollar’s Chokehold – July 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The dominance of the U.S. dollar has become so pervasive in EM currency markets that allocations to EM offer very little diversification in a global currency portfolio
Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
· Equities ·
After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession
China – When Will Reopening Lift Earnings? – July 7, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
With signs of economic reopening, foreign investors have been piling back into Chinese stocks in recent weeks, having rushed for the exits in prior months during the peak of lockdowns.
Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.
MRB TradeBook Update – Elevated Volatility – June 17, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Chinese Lockdowns Creating Pent-up Demand – (8min:58sec) – June 15, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani examines the outlook for China’s economy and markets in the context of renewed lockdowns imposed on Beijing and Shanghai in recent days
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.
Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
· Themes ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
China – The Stock Bounce Has Begun – June 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
A much-anticipated positive shift in sentiment towards Chinese stocks appears to have begun, supported by easier liquidity conditions
Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth
Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
· Asset Allocation · Equities ·
The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.
Webcast – China: How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – (7min:47sec) – May 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for China’s economy and markets.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Case For EM Debt Is In Relative, Not Absolute Terms – May 12, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The primary bogeyman for EM debt, both in its local currency (EMLCD) and hard currency (EM$D) variants, is a negative global growth shock.
Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.
China – How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – May 5, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese stocks and its currency have been buffeted by the fallout from draconian lockdowns that have spread out from the major trade hubs of the country during the course of March and April.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Opportunity Lost, Or Just Delayed? – April 28, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Since the uncertainties unleashed by the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.
Economy – Ambitious China Growth Target Is Attainable, Implies Continuing Stimulus – April 22, 2022
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
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Roundtable – Emerging Market Winners And Losers From The Russia/Ukraine War – (67min:04sec) – April 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing some of the geopolitical considerations arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.
Emerging Market Equities – Fundamentals And Sentiment Diverge – March 31, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities is clouded by a lack of obvious earnings momentum, and although we still recommend holding it at overweight within a global equity portfolio, we see better opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in Europe.
Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.
Emerging Markets – The Perfect Storm For Chinese Equities Will Pass – March 18, 2022
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.
Policy – China Lays Out The Justification For More Stimulus – March 11, 2022
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Breaking From The Dollar Yoke – February 22, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Webcast – The Ebbing Liquidity Wave – (9min:33sec) – February 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months highlight.
China – Limping Into The Tiger – February 8, 2022
Emerging Markets ·
Appropriately enough, as the world celebrates the lunar new year, both bravery and unpredictability are the Tiger’s hallmarks in the Chinese zodiac.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.
Emerging Market Equities – 2022 Outlook – January 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In the face of the self-inflicted deleveraging process hurting its property sector, China bucked the global trend and cut its policy rate this week, while at the same time directing fiscal stimulus towards fixed asset and infrastructure spending.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – A Barbell Of Yield And Quality Will Outperform – January 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The traditional macro drivers of EM debt performance, namely credit quality, monetary policy, liquidity and overall growth conditions offer a mixed picture, with strong demand rebounds triggering rising inflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.
China – Don’t Fight The PBoC – January 6, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Monetary policies will continue to diverge between China and other major economies, which will have a number of investment implications over the next 12 months.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – 2022 EM Currency Outlook: Stay With Quality – December 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.
China – The Coming Consumption/Policy-Led Recovery – December 7, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
After an eventful year of widespread policy interventions that dragged growth from above-trend to its current below-trend pace, a modest policy stimulus is set to recalibrate China’s growth prospects in the months ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.
Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns
Emerging Market Equities – Waiting For The China Bounce – November 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
This year’s powerful revival in global trade and overall demand usually would have been associated with strong EM stock performance
Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.
Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets
China – The Rattle Of Regulatory Change Continues – November 4, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
2021 has been the year of regulatory change in China, starting with a forced deleveraging in the real estate sector, followed by a crackdown on very large internet-related stocks aimed at limiting monopolistic behavior, improving labor rights and protecting data privacy.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Time To Focus More On Quality – October 28, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
It is relatively rare for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at the same time as Treasury yields rise
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).
Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.
Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.
Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.
China – Policy Bandwidth Is Being Overwhelmed – October 7, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese policymakers were probably hoping to take their victory lap during last week’s national holidays, after reducing excess leverage and nipping a housing bubble in the bud.
Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy
Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.
Webcast – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – (7min:40sec) – September 29, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani highlights some of the key takeaways from last week’s MRB Emerging Market Equities Report
Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.
Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.
Emerging Market Equities – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – September 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The overall backdrop for EM equities remains broadly constructive, given the robust trade cycle, solid domestic demand and continuing liquidity support in the world’s leading economies.
Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy
Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.
China – Redistribution, Not Stimulus, Is The Opportunity – September 9, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Investors are in danger of misconstruing two current developments in China.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Generous Spreads Belie Constructive Backdrop – September 2, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for holding emerging market local-currency denominated debt (EMLCD) is a simple one: the EMLCD spread (over Treasuries) has widened to levels consistent with economic stress
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Dollar Is Still King… Of EM FX Performance – August 26, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
While the ebb and flow of U.S. dollar sentiment will continue to tug at the performance of EM currencies, the overall global trade and economic backdrop over the next year will be supportive of modest dollar weakness
Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.
Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.
Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
· Themes ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.
Policy – China’s RRR Cut: Much Less Than Meets The Eye – July 16, 2021
Economics & Policy ·
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Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
· Themes ·
This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.
Emerging Market Equities – EM Bank Earnings Turnaround Offers Key Support – July 15, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM earnings momentum is picking up, and broadening beyond the semiconductor sector.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.
China – Back To Normal – July 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
While investors in the U.S. suffer bouts of anxiety over the first mutterings of a possible thought that the Fed may consider setting a date for the start of policy normalization, Chinese policymakers have already barged through the gates along this path
Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.
Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.
Webinar – Understanding Digital Currencies – (75min:16sec) – June 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Absolute Return & Foreign Exchange Strategist, Santiago Espinosa, discussing the myths and “fundamentals” driving cryptocurrencies…
Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return ·
The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.
China – The Recovery Phase Is Ending – June 8, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The post-pandemic phase of China’s economic rebound has been exceptionally strong, and current data suggests it is already in the early stages of ending.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.
Foreign Exchange – Has The Crypto Fever Broken? – May 25, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
While a bit controversial three months ago, we noted in March that the probability of a bust in cryptocurrencies was more likely than a continuation of the pandemic-induced exuberance (a view that panned out).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt Will Shine While The U.S. Dollar Softens – May 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Two key external drivers of EM bond returns will offer a constructive backdrop in the year ahead.
Webcast – Cyclical, Rather Than Secular Support For Commodities – (10min:17sec) – May 19, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for commodity prices based on current valuations and prospective demand conditions.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – When Uncertain, Prioritize Growth – May 13, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The overarching driver of EM currencies is global trade, which offers a strongly positive backdrop and will likely propel appreciation versus a softening U.S. dollar.
Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.
Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue
China – Reawakened Consumers Underpin Growth – May 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
China is growing at a robust, above-trend growth, with concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic slipping into the distant past.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.
Equities – A Weaker Dollar Will Eventually Favor Unhedged Non-U.S. Equities – April 30, 2021
Equities ·
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Emerging Market Equities – When Global Trade Pops, EM Stocks Sizzle – April 29, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Recent EM underperformance is mostly attributable to the renewed vigor of stocks in the U.S., along with some idiosyncratic risks that have impacted mega-cap Chinese stocks.
Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.
Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.
China – Capital Markets With Chinese Characteristics – April 8, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
China’s economic momentum remains strong and is broadening, and offers powerful support for a solid global expansion in output and trade.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt To Outperform, Even With Rising Global Bond Yields – April 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Three months ago we warned of short-term headwinds to EMLCD returns, while remaining confident of their ability to outperform within a global fixed income portfolio on a 6-12 month view.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.
Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Don’t Fear The Treasury Bear Market – March 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In the midst of a burst of synchronized global growth, financed by Uncle Sam’s mega-stimulus, EM currencies stand to ride higher on a tide of investor risk appetite.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.
Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.
Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.
Foreign Exchange – Understanding Digital Currencies – March 9, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a substantial bull market on the back of highly accommodative monetary policies as well as increased speculative activity, partly attributable to the pandemic.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue
China – Yuan Bonds Outperform As Policy “Normalizes” – March 3, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The Chinese economy doesn’t need stimulus, and, in fact, fiscal retrenchment will gather pace this year.
Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Asian Outperformance Worsens EM’s Concentration Problem – (10min:08sec) – February 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB Strategist Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the appropriate positioning for emerging markets within a global equity portfolio
Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.
Emerging Market Equities – Asian Outperformance Will Drive EM To Irrelevance – February 11, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
“Be careful what you wish for” is the Aesop’s fable that applies to long-suffering EM equity investors, who have been waiting a decade for a sustained period of outperformance.
Emerging Market Equities – The Implications Of EM Stock Concentration – February 11, 2021
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
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Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
China – Chinese Divergences – February 2, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum is far above its trend growth rate, while its stock market booms, government bond yields and the currency edge higher and a central bank advisor dropped hints of policy normalization.
Global Equities – The Risks And Challenges Of Equity Market Concentration – January 28, 2021
· Equities ·
The dominance of the U.S. equity market complicates regional and sectoral equity allocations and results in historically high concentration of portfolios benchmarked to the global index.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.
Emerging Markets – Chinese Equities: Has The Rotation Play Begun? – January 22, 2021
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
This report focuses primarily on the two issues: the outlook for the EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) asset class, and how investors should approach investment in Chinese government bonds.
Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2020 Review – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports2020 provided a rollercoaster ride in many financial asset markets, as investors were forced… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.
China – Climbing The Wall Of Worry – January 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
China continues to experience strong economic momentum, despite a stutter in December’s PMI surveys (which nevertheless remain firmly in expansionary territory).
Regional Equities – Outlook 2021: Piecemeal Rotation – December 22, 2020
· Equities ·
The improving economic outlook is positive for equites overall, although it is already well-discounted in share prices (most notably in the U.S.).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.
Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.
Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.
China – What Could Interrupt China’s Rebound in 2021? – December 3, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum is by far the strongest in the world, which supports strong global appetite for Chinese financial assets.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.
Webcast – Is It Time For Financial Stocks? – (11min:28sec) – November 25, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global financial stocks following the release of the MRB Research Highlight:
“Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership” on November 18, 2020.
Policy – Global Monetary Policy Will Stay Very Accommodative – November 24, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The report is an annual study that compares the relative pressures facing the various central banks in the developed world.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.
Emerging Markets – China’s Corporate Bond Defaults: Now Is The Time – November 20, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
Global Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership – November 18, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Global financial stocks have enjoyed a solid bounce in recent weeks, breaking out of a trading range that had prevailed from June through October.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.
Emerging Market Equities – 2021 Outlook: EM Growth Sizzles, Can Earnings Pop? – November 11, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities in 2021 hinges on their relative earnings outlook, which in turn will be determined by the prospects for a broad-based and reasonably synchronized global economic recovery.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.
China – Domestic Growth Trumps Intermittent Foreign Demand – November 4, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
China is the only major economy recording positive GDP growth this year, and its central bank is the only one signaling policy normalization ahead.
Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.
Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.
Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.
Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.
China – Robust Recovery Offers Scant Global Comfort – October 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
The pace of China’s torrid post-Q1 economic rebound will ease off, but solid growth will be sustained thanks primarily to the robust service sector.
Webcast – Equity Rotation: Stronger Global Growth Is The Necessary Condition – (10min:12sec) – September 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for performance across the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning in a global equity portfolio.
Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
· Equities ·
A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.
Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.
Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.
China – Torrid Recovery Will Ease Off – September 8, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
China’s growth trajectory can be broken down into two components.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Select High-Yield Plays Will Shine – August 25, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Local currency-denominated EM debt (EMLCD) offers attractive yields in a world where investors are challenged by generally richly-valued stocks and bonds, and low expected returns in the developed markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.
Emerging Markets – Liquidity Provides Latitude For Experimental Policies – August 21, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.
Commodities – Industrial Commodities: Don’t Hang The (Modest) Bull Case On China – August 14, 2020
Commodities ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”
Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
· Themes ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
China – Cyclical Recovery Is Real – July 22, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
It may have taken a few months to revive after the initial lockdown, but June data confirms that Chinese economic activity has recovered from its early-year swoon and is growing at, or slightly above, its trend rate.
Foreign Exchange – Stick With The MRB Optimal FX Barbell Basket – July 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.
Emerging Markets Equities – Buying Growth, Or A Bubble, In China – July 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Investors in EM equities rarely face easy choices and the current circumstances offer a particularly challenging mix of risks and opportunities.
Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
· Themes ·
The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.
Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.
Webcast – Catalyst For A Regional Equity Rotation Is Not Yet In View – (9min:51sec) – June 24, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.
Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.
Regional Equities – Greater Earnings Certainty Needed For A Major Rotation – June 18, 2020
· Equities ·
There are important crosscurrents in translating the macro landscape into regional equity positioning.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized ·
Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.
Emerging Markets – Chinese Manufacturing Rebounds, With Little Support – June 12, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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TradeBook Update – June 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.
Emerging Markets – Asia’s Pandemic Recedes, But The Economic Restart Lags – May 8, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.
Emerging Markets – China’s First In-First Out Recovery Gets Tepid Policy Support – April 24, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.
Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.
Emerging Markets – When Bad Does Good: China’s Yuan, Stocks And Bonds Resemble Safe Havens – March 27, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.
Webcast – Calculated Assessments Amidst Heightened Uncertainty – (13min:20sec) – March 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Capital markets are struggling against the backdrop of an escalating COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain economic fallout from countermeasures to contain it.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.
Absolute Return – Profiting From A Defensive Stance – March 13, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports We shifted the aggregate MRB TradeBook from a modest pro-growth to a defensive… Continue
Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – After The Virus… Recession Or Outperformance? – March 10, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Foreign exchange markets have seen volatility spike in recent weeks as investors grapple with the potential growth shock associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.
TradeBook Updates – March 6, 2020
Absolute Return · Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – COVID-19 And Investment Strategy (10min:09sec) – March 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest take on COVID-19 and how it will impact investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.
Global – COVID-19 Epidemic Update – February 28, 2020
Economics & Policy ·
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Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (19min:00sec) – February 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
. In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month, including the virus.
Emerging Markets – Policy Support Reinforces The China Rotation Play- February 21, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.
Webcast – EM Equities: Still In Choppy Waters (7min:45sec) – February 12, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses positioning on EM stocks in a global equity portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.
Policy – Little Pressure On Monetary Policy This Year – February 6, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The challenge heading forward for policymakers will be for those markets facing housing and credit excesses that ultimately will limit, if not prevent, any monetary tightening.
Emerging Market Equities – Buy On (Viral) Dips, But Only Selectively – February 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For the next several weeks, global investors may be mesmerized by the potential hit to global growth associated with China’s coronavirus epidemic.
Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.
Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.
China – The Wuhan Epidemic’s Growth Impact – January 30, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum ended 2019 with a bang, and started 2020 showing above-trend growth, propelled by a sharp recovery in industrial output, exports and imports.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue
Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Bonds: The Best Of The Credit Universe – January 21, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The outlook for EM local currency debt (EMLCD) can be summarized as “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”, but there are no steamrollers to be seen on a 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part IV): Regional Housing & Related Equities – January 17, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue
Emerging Markets – CNY: Manipulating The Manipulator Tag – January 17, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Upgrade EM Currencies Versus The U.S. Dollar – January 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
A steady if unspectacular improvement in global trade momentum, along with supportive global liquidity, imply that conditions are ripening for the outperformance of an EM currency basket versus…
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Bust, No Boom – January 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).
Emerging Markets Equities – 2020 EM Equity Outlook: “Another 2012”? – December 12, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Economic momentum in the EM world has been improving, and against a backdrop of softer global data is now superior to DM momentum for the first time since 2012.
China – 2020 Outlook: No Fireworks – December 5, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
For 2020 as a whole, China’s GDP will likely record a real growth rate in the 5.5-6.0% range.
Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Outperformance Can Continue Awhile – November 26, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for overweighting EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) in a global fixed income portfolio is straightforward.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Validation – November 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There are tentative signs of a trough in manufacturing activity, but follow-through will be critical to sustain the recent breakout in equities and the global stock/bond ratio.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – A Skinny Trade Deal Adds Comfort, Not Return – November 19, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In a growth-challenged world, EM currencies are unlikely to escape the see-saw impact of global risk appetite, and will continue to maintain their negative correlation with the U.S. dollar.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.
Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.
Webcast – Still Scope For Another Upturn In The Global Earnings Cycle (11min:28sec) – October 23, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the earnings cycle across major markets, its key drivers, and the implications for equity prices.
Global Equities – An Old, But Not Fully Mature Earnings Cycle – October 15, 2019
· Asset Class Reports · Equities ·
The global earnings upcycle is advanced, but should continue in the sluggish growth environment we anticipate in the year ahead.
Emerging Markets Equities – The Tech Tide Turns, Will The Rest Follow? – October 10, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The rule of thumb for EM allocations in a global equity portfolio has been to look to global trade momentum as the key strategy signal. The current cycle is unique in this regard.
Webcast – China Recovers From Soft Patch, India’s Decline Accelerates (6min:40sec) – October 2, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani examines the evidence for China’s rebound from a soft spot in its manufacturing economy, along with the deterioration of India’s cyclical growth conditions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Ugly Politics Carpets (So Far) Solid Floorboards – September 27, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The drip/drip of negative political developments risks undermining economic sentiment.
Regional Equities – Hewing Close To Home – September 26, 2019
· Equities ·
Only selective deviations from regional benchmark weightings have a favorable risk-reward profile in a global equity portfolio given the policy and economic backdrop.
China – Chinese Economic Momentum Softens And Stocks Rally (As Usual) – September 25, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese domestic-listed stocks are rallying while economic momentum hits another soft patch.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Growth Plus DM Liquidity: Goldilocks For Bonds – September 24, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Growth momentum in the emerging markets is lacklustre, but recession risks are low.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Highly Political World – September 19, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
Increased political uncertainty and trade threats have fueled financial market volatility, benefiting safe-haven currencies including the U.S. dollar. However, further upside for the dollar should prove limited.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Business Cycle Remains Resilient – September 13, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global hiring plans have stayed solid despite the downturn in manufacturing and trade, and service sector PMI surveys remain positive.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook
Asset Allocation Strategy – Profiting From Prudence – September 6, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Despite the potential allure of an aggressive cyclical bet, prudence warrants plotting a broadly neutral course for now.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Indiscriminate Weakness Opens Up Opportunities – September 5, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Whether weighted by equity or debt benchmarks, EM currency aggregates have given up all their 12-month gains relative to the U.S. dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Third Time Lucky, Or The End Of The Cycle? – August 30, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investors should refrain from aggressive positioning on the basis of expected trade talk outcomes given the difficulty of forecasting President Trump/China’s next moves.
Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Is Trump Blinking? – August 23, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
President Trump appears to have heard the warning that his trade policy risks undermining his re-election prospects.
China – Data Solid, Market Narratives Crumble – August 15, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Market narratives about China’s economy are far more pessimistic than the actual data, amplifying a negative feedback loop that stokes investor anxieties about global growth.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.
Emerging Markets – The Weaker Yuan: By Design Or Default? – August 9, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Collateral Damage From The Trade War – August 9, 2019
Equities ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).
Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s A Grind – July 12, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed is committed to a rate cut later this month, and will stay dovish even after economic news improves.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – The Fed Forgives, But Several Leaps Of Faith Still Required – July 11, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equity investors are required to take several leaps of faith when looking at prospects for the year ahead.
Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.
Webcast – Snack On EM Debt While Watching The U.S./China Slugfest (6min:49sec) – July 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani discussing the implications of the G20 summit for various EM assets.
Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.
Global Foreign Exchange – Making Selective Non-Dollar Bets – June 25, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
The global economy and investor expectations have been caught between the clash in policy forces of heightened trade tensions and further monetary reflation.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Binary Outcomes – June 21, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed has now shifted full-circle to the dovish side. However, the forward markets are too aggressive in terms of expected rate cuts this year, unless economic activity deteriorates meaningfully, which we do not expect.
Geopolitics – The U.S. Versus Iran: Who Wants What? – June 21, 2019
Economics & Policy ·
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China – Will China Reflate, And What Would It Mean If It Did? – June 19, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Once a month, we review current Chinese macroeconomic indicators for signs of shifting momentum, potential policy adjustments and the outlook for China-related assets.
Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fed Props Up EM FX While Growth Fades – June 11, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Protectionist rhetoric has ratcheted higher, dovish developed market central banks are mollifying jittery capital markets while EM assets offer a very attractive carry.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.
Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
· Themes ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.
Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:07sec) – June 5, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide highlights from the MRB Annual Overview Of Key Macro And Investment Themes as well as a “roadmap” for investors to navigate the current global landscape.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.
Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy ·
The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – May 23, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
China – Preparing For A Digital Iron Curtain – May 22, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Beware the tendency to attribute every twitch in Chinese asset prices to the current tweet on trade.
Emerging Market Equities – Political Risks Warrant A Neutral Call – May 16, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The EM earnings backdrop remains modestly positive, which is consistent with stabilizing, rather than recovering, global trade momentum.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.
Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.
Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – It’s All About The Carry Now – April 25, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Yields on EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have declined dramatically in recent months, in line with the trend in U.S. Treasurys.
Webcast – China: 2019 Is Not 2016 (7min:30sec) – April 24, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s MRB Wednesday Webcast “China: 2019 Is Not 2016” Mehran Nakhjavani discusses China’s economic momentum impacts global investors via three vectors: as a commodity consumer, as a global export engine, and as a source of domestic demand.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Don’t Short U.S. Corporate Profits – April 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The improvement in the Chinese economy is gaining momentum, and will provide a lift to global activity and support risk asset prices.
China – Will Foreigners Jump Back Into Chinese Equities Before Locals Lose Interest? – April 18, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
China’s economic momentum impacts global investors via three vectors: as a commodity consumer, as a global export engine, and as a source of domestic demand.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Stabilizing Growth, Easy Liquidity – April 16, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In terms of global liquidity and growth prospects, 2019 is playing out as the reverse of last year: growth is stabilizing and liquidity is plentiful, courtesy of the dovish U-turn.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V – April 12, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. and global ex-U.S. equity prices should hit new highs given our expectation that the tentative turnaround in global trade and manufacturing activity will gain momentum.
Global Fixed Income – Did Treasury Investors Cry Wolf Again? – April 9, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
There has been a tendency by investors and central banks to overreact to softer economic data in recent years and prematurely forecast an imminent U.S. (and global) recession, much like the boy who cried wolf.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.
Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.
China – Looking Past The Data Drought – February 21, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
After a miserable 2018, Chinese stocks have rallied hard since the lunar new year holiday and are up 14% year-to-date. At the same time, foreign media reports about China have been focused on a very gloomy prognosis for the economy.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Fixed Income Will Outperform – February 14, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local-currency bond yields are highly correlated with U.S. Treasury yields, and as the latter have eased back from early October highs, so have EM yields.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fog Of (Trade) War Is Lifting – February 7, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies’ modest revival since October reflects in part their oversold nature after a torrid mid-year selloff last year.
Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.
Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It’s Late, But Not Yet Over – January 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent equity market low (high in corporate bond spreads) should hold, but a re-test is still possible.
Emerging Markets – Yuan Devaluation: Neither A Policy Option, Nor Supported By Capital Flows – January 25, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.
Emerging Markets – Chinese Data: An Imminent, But Modest, Upturn? – January 18, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Equities Report – Focus On Financials, Trade Worries Will Dissipate – January 17, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Of the four major drivers of recent EM equity outperformance – currency trends, internet stocks, financials and, more generally…
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Calmer Heads Prevail? – January 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk asset markets overreacted to a modest deterioration in the fundamentals in late-2018.
Charts – China: Growth Trends Diverge Sharply – January 10, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
A bearish narrative pervades investor interpretation of Chinese economic data
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Outperformance Will Continue – December 20, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) has demonstrated extraordinary resilience recently by outperforming U.S. Treasurys in a year buffeted by trade war angst, a purported EM “currency crisis”
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – The Stealth EM Recovery Has (Patchy) Support – December 13, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
EM currencies have mounted a stealth recovery since late September, despite a sharp increase in risk aversion and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Global Foreign Exchange Report – FX Markets: 2019 Outlook – December 11, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar appreciated this year against most currencies, although only modestly despite most variables (including interest rate differentials and relative growth) favoring the currency.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.
Webcast – Stylized Investment Cycle: Navigating The Endgame (11min:42sec) – December 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Global equity markets are in turmoil, as investors are rapidly downgrading the growth expectations and starting to panic about the potential for a global recession.
Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle: Extended Topping Out Process – December 4, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since we introduced it to clients earlier this decade.
Charts – China: Stocks Stir, Will The Economy Follow? – November 26, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Something is stirring in China’s mainland bourses: for the past month the local CSI300 index has been under less pressure than the MSCI China index.
Absolute Return Strategy – Global Economic Stool: Are The Legs Wobbly? – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been hit hard over the past few weeks, with global… Continue
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.
Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.
Charts – China: Talking Up A Recovery – October 24, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
This year’s deceleration of Chinese economic activity is on track, with the epicenter being a sharp retreat in public infrastructure spending.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflective, Not Restrictive – October 19, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity market is at risk in the near run as investors grapple with the threat of rising interest rates and concerns about the economic outlook.
WMS – Emerging Markets – EM Equities: Apart From Tech, Perking Up In Relative Terms – October 19, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Rebalance For The Rebound – October 4, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies have recently decoupled from the U.S. dollar, forming a tentative bottom despite the dollar’s latest spike.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Is The Worst Over? – September 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
On/off trade worries are again receding, spurring a risk-on phase. The global stock/bond ratio has room to rise, as positive economic fundamentals will persist.
Webcast – Liquidity And The Investment Cycle (9min:47sec) – September 12, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins and Adam Wolfe discuss key issues for the investment outlook, namely global liquidity conditions and the threat of an EM crisis, as well offer perspectives from our Asian client-base, following Adam’s recent regional road-trip
Emerging Market Equities Report – Trade Peace First, Outperformance Next – September 6, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have taken a hit in the last several months and market narratives tend to blame currency weakness in several G20 economies (Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Turkey) and the threat of trade war.
Asia Ex-Japan – Trade Anxiety Should Fade – August 28, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Whether due to fears of a global trade war, a significant yuan devaluation,… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan – Yuan Devaluation Risks Are Low – August 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to believe that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) can, and will, support the trade-weighted yuan, which underpins our overweight positions in Asian stocks and currencies within their respective EM portfolios.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Gauging The Contagion Risks For EM Asian Currencies – August 14, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
With Turkey on the edge of a currency and financial crisis, fears of contagion have spread to EM Asia.
Webcast – EM Currencies’ Trade Tantrum (7min:23sec) – August 8, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for EM currencies after the last few weeks of investor nervousness towards this asset class.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Where There’s Muck, There’s Brass – August 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Three distinct narratives combined earlier this year to buffet EM currencies, albeit on a scale that is rather modest by the standards of 2013’s “Taper Tantrum” and 2014-2015’s commodity price meltdown.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Internet Companies (Part I): Are Growth Projections Realistic? – July 31, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The internet is eating China’s economy, and China’s large internet companies are eating their competitors. Investors believe that this trend will continue over the longer-run, thereby justifying the technology sector’s rich valuations.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back From The Brink? – July 27, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There was a glimmer of hope this week that the U.S. will not push the world into a spiral of protectionism.
WMS – Commodities – Copper Had A Healthy Correction And Can Now Outperform – July 27, 2018
Commodities ·
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Asia Ex-Japan Report – Policy Debate Stokes Yuan Fears – July 24, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Any forthcoming monetary easing is likely to be less than is already discounted by the markets, while a loosening of the fiscal screws should provide support for the yuan.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – Love It, Or Leave It – July 12, 2018
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have decent earnings growth potential and recent selling pressure has restored attractive valuations.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Bear: Hunt Or Run? – July 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Despite large differences in sector composition, valuations, and international trade exposure, correlations between China’s CSI-300 index, the MSCI China and MSCI Hong Kong indexes have risen to the highest levels in more than a decade.
Webcast – The China Syndrome: Containment Or Contagion? (6min:29sec) – July 4, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Adam Wolfe discusses the recent weakness in the Chinese yuan and Chinese stock prices.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Yuan Depreciation Will Be Contained – July 3, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Those looking for a ray of hope in an otherwise gloomy investment landscape can point to the fact that a 3.3% decline in the yuan against the U.S. dollar in June
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China Macro Update: Tight Credit Weighs On Investment – June 19, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum remained robust in May, with the MRB Early Economic Activity Indicator signaling…
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Is The Trade Tide Turning? – June 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies almost always deliver decent returns to global investors when there is a positive global trade cycle, and rarely do so when global trade decelerates.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Can 1997 Happen Again? – June 5, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
U.S. dollar appreciation since April has exposed balance-sheet weaknesses in a handful of EMs, sparking fears of a currency crisis and contagion.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.
Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
· Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes ·
Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.
Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Floors And Ceilings – May 18, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakout in U.S. bond yields and rebound in the dollar underscore that the U.S. policy/economic cycle still has momentum.
Theme – The Trade And Reserve Currency Systems At Risk – May 15, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
The global trading system that is a holdover from the 1944 Bretton Woods conference has passed its sell-by date.
Asia Ex-Japan – Chinese Banks: Earnings Are Looking Up – May 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
China’s listed banks are likely to see a reduction in provisioning costs over the next two years, which should deliver the strongest earnings growth since 2013.
Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Confidence Hold? – April 20, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is cooling after last year’s mini-boom, but a sizable slowdown is unlikely, provided trade tensions do not escalate.
Asia Ex-Japan – Politics Point To A Stronger Yuan, Weaker Ringgit – April 17, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
In recent months, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been guiding the yuan exchange rate higher and domestic interest rates lower, all in the context of financial market opening.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Reassuringly Boring, For Now – April 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
When global trade is expanding, accidents rarely occur for EM currencies as a whole.
Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More To Go – March 29, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Heightened geopolitical tensions and stock-specific woes in the tech sector will keep equity markets weak in the near run.
WMS – Commodities – Copper Is Vulnerable, Blame China – March 29, 2018
Commodities · Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Slippery Slope – March 23, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent risk-off phase was initially driven by rising bond yields, but now fears of protectionism have moved to the forefront. Barring an escalating trade war, we expect the pause in bond yields and correction in equity prices to reverse beyond the near run.
WMS – Trade Policy – U.S. Tariffs On Chinese Goods Won’t Fix The Problem – March 23, 2018
Economics & Policy ·
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Equities – EM Small Caps: Time To Fly? – March 15, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Small capitalization stocks are often treated as the highest-beta segment of an equity universe, where outsized returns are possible during positive economic periods, at the price of high volatility and large drawdowns during bear markets.
China – Xi’s Power Grab Is Not A Prelude To Economic Reform– March 8, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Doing away with presidential term limits has put the final nail in the coffin for Deng Xiaoping’s political reforms.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – Back Up The Truck – March 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The case for overweighting EM in a global equity portfolio is straightforward: global trade is expanding on a sustainable basis.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Clearer Skies, Time To Harvest Yield – February 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports We have been anticipating short-term turbulence for EM local-currency debt (EMLCD), followed by… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Into The Extrapolation Phase – January 19, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investors are discounting positive earnings trends well into the future, but have not yet made a parallel adjustment to their interest rate expectations.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 18, 2018
· Themes ·
This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Asia Ex-Japan – Will Technology’s Tailwinds Fade? – January 18, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Asia ex-Japan equities had a very good 2017, in large part due to the technology sector.
Charts – Industrial Metals: Fasten Your Seatbelts – January 2, 2018
· Commodities ·
Industrial commodity prices ended 2017 strongly, buoyed by evidence of a synchronized global economic recovery.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Betting Against the Consensus – December 22, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global stock/bond ratio has more upside, but mostly because bonds will generate negative returns rather than due to huge equity gains in 2018.
Webcast – MRB’s Best Long-Term Bets (7min:39sec) – December 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines several of MRB’s multi-year investment recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.
China – In 2018: What Could Go Wrong? – December 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
While our baseline forecast calls for a “softer, gentler” economic slowdown in China over the next 12 months, the risks to a multi-asset portfolio from China are skewed to the downside.
Webcast – What’s In Store For 2018 (8min:45sec) – December 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for the macro backdrop and the implications for capital markets in 2018.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Outlook For 2018 – December 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Strong returns for most risk assets combined with the advanced age of the U.S. economic expansion have many investors wondering to what extent dangers are building going into 2018.
Asia Ex-Japan – On The Road Again — Asia Trip Perspectives – November 29, 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Last week included a trip of client visits in Singapore and Hong Kong, the major theme of which was the outlook for capital markets in 2018 and appropriate asset allocation.
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – November 21, 2017
· Equities ·
It has been a great year for Asia Ex-Japan equities. Global growth accelerated, and global exports outpaced GDP.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 17, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A near-run correction in risk assets is underway. We do not expect it to progress into a significant setback and thus are not de-risking our moderately pro-growth stance.
Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – November 9, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Once the twin air pockets of a U.S. dollar rally and a Chinese… Continue
Webcast – It Will Be More Difficult Next Year (8min:07sec) – November 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 8 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – November 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports It’s been a banner year for investors. Global equity returns are 21% year-to-date… Continue
Webcast – The Disinflation Tailwind Has Passed (9min:23sec) – November 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for the major asset classes and examines the key economic, policy and valuations drivers.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – November 1, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes ·
This is the third MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 27, 2017
Asset Class Reports · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Both the ECB and the BoC confirmed that they remain keen to stay behind the economic curve, which is pro-growth and bullish for the global stock/bond ratio.
Long-Term Returns Report – October 26, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income ·
The coming decade will see an end to an era of steadily declining discount rates and the associated boost to asset valuations. Prospective returns for balanced portfolios will be middling by historical standards, accompanied by lower Sharpe ratios.
Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.
China – Private Sector: Crisis Or Opportunity? – October 24, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
China’s industrial-led rebound has greatly benefitted its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), while private industrial firms appear to have languished in terms of output and profits.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 20, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Prospects for the three legs in the global economic stool – the U.S., euro area and China – remain upbeat.
WMS – Commodities – Copper And Iron Ore Diverge: Third Time, Unlucky? – October 20, 2017
Commodities ·
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Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part II): The Next Wave – October 19, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series, updating our submerging world theme. Part I outlined the ramifications resulting from the mushrooming and subsequent erosion of this segment of the global economy over the past decade.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 13, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We examine the main cyclical risk factors and conclude that they are still not flashing warning signs.
China – Ignore Politics, Focus On Housing – October 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
The Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Party Congress kicks off next week, which will result in a massive turnover of the country’s top political and military leadership.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – October 5, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
A synchronized global trade cycle is traditionally the single most accurate indicator for EM currency outperformance.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 29, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shifting trends in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could create near-term capital market turbulence.
China – Reserve Currency Status: Can China Fake It ‘til It Makes It? – September 26, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. dollar weakness, an improving balance of payments and a solid domestic economy have all provided support for the Chinese yuan this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 22, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Cyclical prospects for the global stock/bond ratio will remain upbeat until the massive gap between interest rates and nominal GDP growth closes meaningfully.
Equities – Hong Kong Equities: Property Market Risks Loom Large – September 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Equities ·
Hong Kong property prices have been inflated by extremely low interest rates well beyond any reasonable valuation.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 8, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-term turbulence in risk assets may persist given the tense political and geopolitical backdrop.
Emerging Market Equities Report – September, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have outperformed recently: should global multi-asset investors join the party?
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – August 31, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Whenever the U.S. dollar index weakens, the relative performance of any non-dollar asset… Continue
Webcast – Asia Ex-Japan: Can Export Growth Trump Geopolitical Tensions? (5min:11sec) – August 16, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). August 16 after 2:00… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – August 15, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Tensions with North Korea have weighed on global risk assets and Asian Ex-Japan… Continue
China – A Softer, Gentler Chinese Housing Bust – July 27, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s housing market has held up somewhat better than expected, but the national… Continue
China – China’s Political Transition: “Core” Strength Or Institutional Resilience? – July 18, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Sometime later this year, most of China’s top political leaders will be replaced… Continue
China – China’s Technology Sector Has Gone BAT-ty – July 6, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese technology stocks have massively outperformed the country benchmark this year. The FANG… Continue
Emerging Markets – When China And Commodities Falter, Which EM Assets Benefit? – June 29, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports A likely 20% decline in the broad commodity price indexes and/or a meaningful… Continue
Webcast – China Sneezes: Do EM Currencies Catch Cold? (6min:25sec) – June 14, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). June 14 after 2:00… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – June 13, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
China – A Tale Of Two Chinese Bond Markets: Are Foreign Investors Too Complacent? – June 6, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s domestic corporate bond yields and spreads have increased in recent months as… Continue
Long-Term Returns Report – May 25, 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Real returns on balanced portfolios will be low in the coming decade, on… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – May 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Chinese economy is starting to downshift, while investors are paring back their… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 12, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Near-run concerns aside, the 6-12 month outlook for the global stock/bond ratio is… Continue
China – Three Trackers For A Multispeed Economy – April 6, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports We introduce a scaled-back version of the MRB China Economic Activity Indicator that… Continue
Equities – 10 Questions For Asia Ex-Japan Investors – March 28, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports 1. Will the global economic rebound continue? 2. Will the yuan be devalued… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 10, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global economic backdrop is brighter than has been the case for several… Continue
China – China Economy: The Revenge Of Rebalancing – March 9, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese investment growth is likely to slow in 2017, led by real estate… Continue
Webcast – Global Metal & Mining Stocks: The Risks Of A Correction Are Rising (8min:37sec) – February 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 15 after… Continue
Equities – Global Metal & Mining Stocks: The Risks Of A Correction Are Rising – February 14, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports The rally in commodity prices will soon hit a wall as China’s demand… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – February 2, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – January 19, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
China – Can China Tolerate Higher Interest Rates? – January 17, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese interest rates are likely to drift higher over the next 12 months,… Continue
Webcast – China’s Drumbeat And The Global Investor’s Music Sheet (7min:31sec) – January 4, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 4 after 2:00… Continue
China – China’s Cash Crunch: The Trilemmas And Tribulations Of The PBoC – December 21, 2016
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Yuan instability weighed heavily on risk assets in 2015 and early-2016, thus China… Continue
China – How China’s Property Boom Goes Bust (Again) – October 11, 2016
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s property boom has reaccelerated in recent months, which may push back the… Continue
China – China Economy: Prepare For A Rough Landing – August 3, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s property market looks set for a cyclical decline sometime in the next… Continue
Theme – Are India And Indonesia The Next China? – June 23, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports With structural reforms and appropriate macro policy, Indian growth could rise to about… Continue
Theme – How China’s Economic Transition Is Reshaping The World – May 5, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s economy has started to transition toward using stuff more efficiently (what we… Continue
China – Chinese Banks: Betting On A Bailout – April 12, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports China is very unlikely to experience an imminent financial crisis, even without a… Continue
China – Falling Reserves Do Not Signal Yuan Crisis – February 16, 2016
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports China displays few of the macroeconomic imbalances that have preceded emerging market currency… Continue
China – Is China About To Start Deleveraging? – January 12, 2016
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports “Supply-side reform” was the catch phrase that emerged from the China’s Central Economic… Continue
China – Winners And Losers From China’s Slowdown – November 5, 2015
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report gauges the relative impact of China’s slowdown on 20 major economies… Continue
China – Chinese Banks: The Case For Re-Rating – August 11, 2015
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s commercial banks face headwinds from rising non-performing loans and regulatory changes. Nevertheless,… Continue
Theme – China Scenario Analysis: A Soft Landing Is On Track – June 9, 2015
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese growth is stabilizing around 7% this year. The property market is slowly… Continue
China – Chinese Debt: A Rising Tide, Not A Tsunami – April 14, 2015
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The sharp increase in China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is perceived to be a major… Continue
China – Policy Will Support Growth, Rebalancing And The Yuan – March 17, 2015
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The policy plans delivered to the National People’s Congress were constructive for growth… Continue
China – Tracking China’s Rebalancing – February 3, 2015
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Economic rebalancing and a gradual decline in potential output are making traditional proxies… Continue
China – China’s Not Landing, It’s Reforming – October 14, 2014
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese GDP growth will firm in 2015 on a cyclical rebound in the… Continue
Theme – The Return Of “Chindia”? – October 7, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports India’s long-term growth is likely to be driven by investment and manufacturing, while… Continue
Country Report – China – December 4, 2012
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Domestic consumption is strong, output is picking up and early signs of an… Continue