MacroResearchBoard
| Independent Investment Strategy
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2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.
MRB TradeBook – Some Tactical Changes – November 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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China – Growth: Half-Full, Or Half-Empty? – November 9, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese household consumption is the new version of the analogy of the glass being half full or empty.
Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
Webcast – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – (7min:09sec) – November 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani looks at the outlook for emerging market equities.
Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Emerging Market Equities – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – October 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Apart from some strong but short-lived bursts of outperformance, EM stocks have underperformed their DM (mainly U.S.) peers on a trend basis for a long time.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: More Tailwinds – October 17, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM economic growth momentum is firming, which is credit-positive and has been historically accompanied by tightening EM bond spreads.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.
China – Recovery Steps Up A Notch – October 12, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
What will it take for foreign investors to shake off their bearishness on Chinese assets?
Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.
Mexico – Deglobalization And The Peso: Fact Versus Fiction – October 3, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Shifts in global supply chains have been one of the main characteristics of the current era of multipolarity and deglobalization.
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Will EM Rate Cuts End The Party? – September 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies will appreciate versus the dollar as investors come around to MRB’s no US. recession view and shift their focus to positive EM domestic currency drivers, namely strengthening relative growth momentum.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Emerging Market Equities – Time To Rotate To EM ex-China – August 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For those who have no mandated exposure to EM and make an undifferentiated call on the EM aggregate, we are continuing to recommend an overweight in EM stocks within a global equity portfolio.
Webcast – Hopes Dashed By Lack Of A China Property Bailout – (5min:45sec) – August 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani ran through some recent developments in China which have triggered a material market reaction.
China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.