canada


 

Foreign Exchange – Taking The Pulse Of Weak-Link Currencies – February 1, 2024
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The list of weak-link currencies includes the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona and U.K. pound.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downgrade Alert(s) – January 26, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. economic conditions do not warrant lower policy rates, and such conditions are not likely to develop in 2024.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks Is At Risk – January 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The front-running of DM policy rate cuts has eased only slightly of late, and is still far too aggressive relative to the economic/inflation outlook. 



 

Absolute Return Strategy – From “Soft Landing” To “No Landing” – January 18, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The equity and bond market are both priced for a Goldilocks U.S. economic outcome that is unlikely to persist as the year progresses.



 

Webinar – Canada’s Housing Crisis & Impact For Investors – (49min:00sec) – January 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist, has made headlines in Canada by expressing MRB’s view on Canadian housing, the BoC and implications for domestic investors.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – 2024: More Pivots Ahead – December 22, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase is stretched and due for a pause. However, a return to risk-off is unlikely until bond yields resume rising, which is still some ways off.



 

2024 Regional Equities Outlook – Banking On Better Breadth – December 21, 2023
 · Equities · 

Our constructive economic outlook points to a period of catch-up for this year’s laggards, although it will likely take time to develop.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Demand, Corporate Profitability, And Inflation Are All Resilient – December 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The deceleration in DM inflation will peter out with underlying inflation still well above central bank targets if the global economic expansion rolls on, as we expect.



 

2024 Absolute Return Outlook – Focus On The Tails – December 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

2023 has turned out to be a rollercoaster for financial asset markets, with investors flipflopping on the recession call and outlook for policy rates.



 

Webcast – Focus On Diverging Macro Trends For FX Strategy In 2024 – (7min:33sec) – December 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses the big-picture macro theme for 2024 and its ramifications for foreign exchange strategy.



 

2024 Foreign Exchange Outlook – A Less U.S. Dollar Centric Year – November 30, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has had a volatile year with the most recent depreciation wiping out all of this year’s gains.



 

Webcast – Developed Economies, Central Banks & Bonds: What To Expect In 2024? – (9min:37sec) – November 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for developed economies, central bank policies, and bond market performance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.



 

2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy



 

Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.



 

Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.



 

Foreign Exchange – The Euro Will Continue To Appreciate Versus Weak-Link Currencies – November 7, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While it has not been an easy year for the euro, the currency has still managed to appreciate versus key weak-link currencies, in line with our projections.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.



 

Charts – Are The Global Weak Links About To Snap? – October 4, 2023
Economics & Policy · Themes · 

We are highlighting a chartpack on global weak-link economies with household sector excesses, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.



 

Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
 · Equities · 

Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…



 

Foreign Exchange – An Oil-Neutral Bet Levered To Europe: Long NOK/Short CAD – September 26, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have decoupled from the rebound in oil prices in recent months.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Distinguishing Between Winners And Losers – September 14, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has regained strength over the past two months supported by rising interest rate differentials and stronger relative growth on the back of a further unwinding of U.S. recession fears.



 

Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Canada – Housing: Sliding Down The Slippery Slope Of Hope – September 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

A massive Canadian housing bubble has been inflated in response to more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.



 

Global Fixed Income – Another Upwave In Bond Yields Is Inevitable – August 9, 2023
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

After a brief reprieve beginning late last year, bonds have faced further losses since May as economy bears were caught wrongfooted on calls for a recession.



 

Global Equities: Identifying Opportunities Among Major Non-U.S. Markets – July 25, 2023
 · Equities · 

With all eyes recently on U.S. stocks, it is easy to miss important trends among the major non-U.S. markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.



 

Regional Equities – Mitigating Concentration Risk Across Regions And Sectors – June 29, 2023
 · Equities · 

Global equity market concentration risk has increased anew following the recent outperformance of U.S. tech and AI-related stocks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.



 

Webcast – Stay Selective With The U.S. Dollar – (8min:04sec) – June 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets based on the just-published global foreign exchange report. 



 

Global Foreign Exchange – No Recession = A Short-Lived U.S. Dollar Revival – May 31, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has regained some strength in recent weeks on the back of the unwinding of oversold conditions and persistent recession fears that have led to a churning global stock market which has benefited defensive currencies.



 

Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Isn’t Over – May 19, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist over the summer.



 

Global Equities – Banks Are A Key Tell For Equity Performance – April 28, 2023
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.



 

Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.



 

Foreign Exchange – Higher Interest Rates Will Snap The Weak Link Currencies – April 4, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Weak-link economies are at increasing risk of experiencing a recession triggered by higher borrowing rates.



 

Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Positioning – March 30, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, but we expect the banking sector stresses to soon die down and for the global economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Interest Rate Normalization & Global Financial Stocks – March 15, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

There are still widespread recession concerns, entrenched optimism on much lower inflation, and investors are generally confused about where we are in the economic and investment cycle.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.



 

Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – A Different Year For The U.S. Dollar – March 7, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S dollar decline has stabilized as of late on the back of a further rise in U.S. interest rates compared to other markets and related risk-off phase.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.



 

Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.



 

Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
 · Equities · 

There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.



 

Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth



 

2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
 · Equities · 

A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.



 

Theme – U.S. Treasurys: Rhyming (Inversely) With The 1980s – December 8, 2022
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

It is common for investor expectations and market pricing to persistently lag economic fundamentals at secular turning points.



 

2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – 2023 FX Outlook: Selectivity Will Be Key – November 29, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

A successful FX strategy in 2023 will entail a major change in tactics, as oversold and undervalued currencies are set to regain strength against the historically overextended U.S. dollar.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.



 

Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.



 

Foreign Exchange – Favor The Euro Versus Currencies In Weak Link Economies – November 2, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The backdrop for the euro area could become much brighter than is currently anticipated…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Tactically Adding More Beta – October 28, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.



 

Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.



 

Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
 · Equities · 

Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.



 

Webcast – Growth Concerns Are Driving Currencies – (11min:22sec) – September 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets, leveraging some of the research in this month’s global foreign exchange report.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Recession Fears Are Driving Currencies – September 14, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The dominant driver for FX markets shifted in recent months from interest rate differentials



 

Equities – Canadian Equities: Dealing With Domestic Constraints – August 16, 2022
 · Equities · 

Canadian stock prices have rebounded over the past month along with global stocks, but have a long way to go to get back into the black for the calendar year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.



 

Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
 · Themes · 

The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.



 

Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
 · Equities · 

After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.



 

Global Fixed Income – A Volatile Consolidation – July 8, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

There is a great deal of uncertainty facing fixed-income markets which is reflected in the very elevated level of bond volatility.



 

Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – More Volatility – June 24, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks



 

Canada – Rising Interest Rates Threaten The Canadian Goose – June 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our latest views on the Canadian economy, particularly its interest rate sensitivity.



 

Webcast – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Extended But Propped Up By Risk-Off – (7min:58sec) – June 21, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa provides our latest analysis of the U.S. dollar and global currency markets.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year



 

Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.



 

Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.



 

Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Fed Plays Catch-Up – March 30, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The sell-off in the global fixed-income market has been severe over the past several months, particularly for U.S. Treasurys.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – The Impact Of Geopolitics On FX Strategy – March 17, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The shunning of Russia from the global economy has heightened market volatility and created a dent in economic sentiment



 

Economy – Assessing Total Inflation Risks In The Developed World – March 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The MRB Total Inflation Measure offers a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures within an economy by including other sources of inflationary/disinflationary pressures beyond consumer price inflation.



 

Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity-Based Currencies: Where Are The Opportunities? – February 8, 2022
Foreign Exchange · 

Developed commodity-based currencies have decoupled from the rebound in commodity prices in recent months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.



 

Foreign Exchange – FX Portfolio Insurance – January 28, 2022
Foreign Exchange · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Currency Strategy For 2022 – December 21, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights MRB’s currency strategy for next year.



 

Global Fixed Income – The 2022 Fixed Income Outlook: Implications Of The Fed’s “Hawkish” Pivot – December 14, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

The key theme for global fixed-income markets in 2022 will be the capitulation to a less “transitory” and more resilient inflation and growth environment.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Prolonging The Cycle – December 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run COVID-19 related headwinds will act to prolong the economic cycle, but seem unlikely to derail the recovery, based on current information.



 

Policy – Emergency Monetary Policy Is No Longer Required – December 8, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the central banks in the developed world, as well as supporting charts.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.



 

Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt: Assessing Risks After The Binge – November 3, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Public finances across the developed world have deteriorated markedly over the past 10-15 years, as government debt mushroomed to provide an offset for the Great Recession and then to offset the COVID-19 fallout.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period



 

Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Strategy For Resilient Global Growth – September 16, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights that our overarching macro view remains unchanged as we expect the global economy to surprise on the upside over the next year even as growth and trade moderate.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.



 

Equities – Global Earnings: Catch Up Or Stick With Mo? – July 30, 2021
Equities · 

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Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.



 

Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
 · Equities · 

The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.



 

Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.



 

Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.



 

Equities – The U.S. Will Bear The Burden Of A Global Minimum Tax – June 11, 2021
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.



 

Foreign Exchange – Canadian Dollar: The Good News Is Priced-In – May 21, 2021
Foreign Exchange · 

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Equities – A Weaker Dollar Will Eventually Favor Unhedged Non-U.S. Equities – April 30, 2021
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – How Long Will U.S. Dollar Resilience Last? – March 30, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains mildly positive on the back of stronger relative growth (boosted by massive fiscal spending) and still oversold conditions (except versus the euro).



 

Regional Equities – The Window For Regional Rotation Opens Wider – March 25, 2021
 · Equities · 

The massive U.S. fiscal stimulus will provide a major boost to the global economy and corporate earnings in markets and sectors highly geared to global trade.



 

Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.



 

Equities – Canada: Earnings Beta Still Tied To Resources – February 24, 2021
 · Equities · 

Canadian stocks will benefit from an improving domestic and global economy over the next 6-12 months, but we expect them to continue to underperform their global peers during the period.



 

Policy – Another Year Of Hyper-Accommodative Monetary Policy – January 27, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the major developed market central banks, as well as supporting charts.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.



 

Fixed Income – Deleveraging Postponed In Canada Mildly Bond Bearish – January 22, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).



 

Policy – Global Monetary Policy Will Stay Very Accommodative – November 24, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The report is an annual study that compares the relative pressures facing the various central banks in the developed world.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks



 

Webcast – Equity Rotation: Stronger Global Growth Is The Necessary Condition – (10min:12sec) – September 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for performance across the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning in a global equity portfolio.



 

Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
 · Equities · 

A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.



 

Equities – Canadian Equities: A Tale Of Two Trends – August 21, 2020
Equities · 

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Foreign Exchange – Stick With The MRB Optimal FX Barbell Basket – July 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange · 

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Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.



 

Webcast – Catalyst For A Regional Equity Rotation Is Not Yet In View – (9min:51sec) – June 24, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Regional Equities – Greater Earnings Certainty Needed For A Major Rotation – June 18, 2020
 · Equities · 

There are important crosscurrents in translating the macro landscape into regional equity positioning.



 

TradeBook Update – June 12, 2020
Absolute Return · 

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Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity Currencies Will Need To Get Cheaper – June 3, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights why the recent rally in developed commodity-based currencies should prove temporary as underlying fundamentals in these economies remain weak.



 

Webcast – Canada: Will The Bubble Finally Burst? – (13min:26sec) – June 2, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest outlook on the Canadian economy and asset markets, with a focus on the potential for a bursting of the housing and credit bubbles.



 

Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.



 

Canada – On Thin Ice As It Heats Up – May 27, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our outlook on the Canadian economy and related investment strategy in response to the pandemic and related halt in activity.



 

COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.



 

Foreign Exchange – The Prospects For Petro-Currencies Are Bleak – April 24, 2020
Foreign Exchange · 

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Global Fixed Income – The Fed Has A Backstop For Everything – April 21, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

In response to the sharp COVID-19 economic fallout, the Fed has adopted an unprecedented set of stimulus measures with clear positive implications for fixed-income assets.



 

Regional Equities – The Best Offense Is A Good Defense – March 26, 2020
 · Equities · 

The uncertainty associated with COVID-19 and the countermeasures being taken to ameliorate it justify a conservative regional equity allocation in the near term.



 

COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (19min:00sec) – February 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

. In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month, including the virus.



 

Webcast – Buybacks Are An Important Factor In The U.S. ROE Advantage (11min:53sec) – February 19, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins takes a close look at return on equity in the major markets over the past decade and highlights some important drivers and considerations for valuations.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.



 

Equities – Canadian Equities: Cold Carbon Comfort – February 7, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.



 

Fixed Income – BoC & The Bond Market: Caught Between Crosscurrents – January 24, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – Mania Profiling (Part IV): Regional Housing & Related Equities – January 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.



 

Webcast – FX Strategy For 2020 (13min:31sec) – December 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this today’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the outlook for FX strategy in 2020.



 

Global Fixed Income – 2020 Outlook – December 17, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

Today’s report outlines our recommended fixed-income positioning for 2020.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Positioning For 2020 – December 12, 2019
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report outlines our FX positioning in 2020. This year the U.S. dollar traded marginally higher on the back of weaker external growth and ongoing uncertainty associated with trade and politics.



 

Foreign Exchange – CAD: The Best Of A Bad Lot – November 29, 2019
Foreign Exchange · 

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Webcast – Dividends For The Long Run (8min:24sec) – November 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins examines global dividends and their potential contribution to equity returns in the years ahead.



 

Equities – The Lure Of Dividends – November 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

Current dividend yields on equities are compelling compared with the extraordinarily low yields available on long-term government bonds.



 

Fixed Income – G7 Government Bond Yields: Countertrend Bounce Or Further Upside? – November 22, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.



 

Policy – Gauging Relative Monetary Policy Pressures: It’s All About The Fed – October 31, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Monetary policy pressures in the developed world have diminished substantially this year due to trade-related uncertainty and global manufacturing weakness.



 

Foreign Exchange – Choosing Between Two Canaries – October 25, 2019
Foreign Exchange · 

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Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.



 

Webcast – Still Scope For Another Upturn In The Global Earnings Cycle (11min:28sec) – October 23, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the earnings cycle across major markets, its key drivers, and the implications for equity prices.



 

Global Equities – An Old, But Not Fully Mature Earnings Cycle – October 15, 2019
 · Asset Class Reports · Equities · 

The global earnings upcycle is advanced, but should continue in the sluggish growth environment we anticipate in the year ahead.



 

Canada – On Borrowed Time – October 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The increasing imbalances and building vulnerabilities of the Canadian economy have been a regular theme in our research since the commodity Supercycle crested in 2013.



 

Regional Equities – Hewing Close To Home – September 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

Only selective deviations from regional benchmark weightings have a favorable risk-reward profile in a global equity portfolio given the policy and economic backdrop.



 

Global Fixed Income – G7 Bonds: Priced For A Bleak Outlook – September 24, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

Our view has been that the race to negative bond yields pushed pricing too far this summer.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Highly Political World – September 19, 2019
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Increased political uncertainty and trade threats have fueled financial market volatility, benefiting safe-haven currencies including the U.S. dollar. However, further upside for the dollar should prove limited.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.



 

Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Collateral Damage From The Trade War – August 9, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.



 

Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.



 

Regional Equities – Limited Late-Cycle Beta Warranted – June 28, 2019
 · Equities · 

The health of the global economic expansion will be the key driver of relative equity market performance in the year ahead, rather than valuations or monetary policy.



 

Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Making Selective Non-Dollar Bets – June 25, 2019
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The global economy and investor expectations have been caught between the clash in policy forces of heightened trade tensions and further monetary reflation.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Calibrating Downside And Upside Risk – June 20, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our base-case scenario is that the global economic expansion will persist, with growth around potential, and manufacturing and trade activity firming modestly over the next 6-12 months.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.



 

Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
 · Themes · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.



 

Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:07sec) – June 5, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide highlights from the MRB Annual Overview Of Key Macro And Investment Themes as well as a “roadmap” for investors to navigate the current global landscape.



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
 · Themes · 

This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · 

The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of  Key Macro Themes (Part I) – May 23, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Protecting Some Profits – May 17, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are protecting profits and downgrading equities to neutral within a multi-asset portfolio, following the powerful run-up in prices this year and recent escalation in trade tensions. 



 

Equities – An Aging Global Earnings Cycle Still Offers Upside – May 16, 2019
 · Equities · 

The current economic expansion is the longest on record, if measured by the U.S. cycle.



 

Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The Pain Trades Rolls On – April 26, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Central banks, including the Fed, will stay dovish until after better economic data arrives, which bodes well for equities and credit.



 

Foreign Exchange – Canadian Dollar: Risks Remain High – April 26, 2019
Foreign Exchange · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Don’t Short U.S. Corporate Profits – April 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The improvement in the Chinese economy is gaining momentum, and will provide a lift to global activity and support risk asset prices.



 

Fixed Income – Favor Canada, But Stay Short Duration – April 18, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Monetary Reflation In A Deleveraging World (12min:30sec) – April 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The mechanics and impact of monetary policy have been heavily debated from the onset of the Great Recession and has heated up again since the Fed whipsawed investors with a massive pivot.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.



 

Foreign Exchange – Pairing Off Oil-Dependent Currencies – March 29, 2019
Foreign Exchange · 

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Regional Equities Report – A Sustained Expansion Favors Cyclical Markets – March 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

We expect equity prices to be higher over the next 6-12 months, albeit with periodic setbacks that will test nerves.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Desynchronized World – March 18, 2019
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has drifted slightly higher on the back of slower global growth and ongoing investor uncertainty about the economic outlook.



 

Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.



 

Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.



 

Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.



 

Fixed Income – BoC: The Pressure Is Off – March 1, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Policy – Synchronized Moderation Temporarily Halts The Great Monetary Unwind – February 12, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S.-led gradual global monetary unwind has temporarily paused, with the Fed recently moving to the sidelines.



 

Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.



 

Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like



 

Regional Equities Report – Relative Performance Shifts Emerging – December 19, 2018
 · Equities · 

Our view, as outlined last week in the MRB Weekly Macro Strategy, is that the global economic expansion will persist,



 

Global Foreign Exchange Report – FX Markets: 2019 Outlook – December 11, 2018
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar appreciated this year against most currencies, although only modestly despite most variables (including interest rate differentials and relative growth) favoring the currency.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.



 

Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.



 

Webcast – DM Sovereign Debt Risks: Assessing Structural Vulnerabilities (9min:35sec) – November 14, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 14 after… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt Risks: Are There Any Safe-Havens? – November 13, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

Mismanagement of public finances leaves several developed markets susceptible to sovereign debt strains when the next global recession eventually arrives.



 

Webcast – The End Of Cheap Money: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (8min:57sec) – October 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). October 31 after… Continue



 

Webcast – Bond Yields, Choke Points & Relief Valves (12min:26sec) – October 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Financial markets have been shaken as investors have rapidly adjusted their expectations to reflect a higher bond yield environment.



 

Theme – Competitive Currency Devaluation Is Ending – October 23, 2018
 · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

Competitive currency devaluation was an important theme in the years following the Great Recession when two major global growth engines needed reflating, namely the U.S. and euro area.



 

Regional Equities – Relative Extremes Cannot Be Sustained – September 20, 2018
 · Equities · 

Global equities have diverged sharply this year, with the U.S. market roaring to new highs, while most non-U.S. benchmarks have faltered since hitting cyclical peaks early this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Window Of Opportunity – August 31, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Trade tensions have eased a notch, reducing the threat to the global economic expansion. Meanwhile, U.S. and euro area economic indicators point to above-trend growth ahead, which should coincide with another upleg in the global stock/bond ratio.



 

WMS – Foreign Exchange – NAFTA 2.0 What About The Canadian Dollar – August 31, 2018
Foreign Exchange · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Surmounting The Hurdles (Yet Again) – August 24, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth has stabilized at historically solid levels, underscoring that conditions remain supportive of equity markets and bearish for bonds.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Differentiating Among The Developed Commodity Markets – August 24, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Global Foreign Exchange Report – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Looking Fatigued – August 13, 2018
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Aggressive U.S. tariffs against Turkey last week, pushed the lira to a new historical low, and provided a lift to the dollar.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – No Blinking So Far – July 13, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The trade war has not de-escalated. Thus, equity prices will remain at risk in the near run, and bond prices will stay supported.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – A Dovish Hike From The Bank Of Canada – July 13, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – The Churn Continues – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report revisits three topics that continue to be heavily debated and which we believe investors are focused inappropriately.



 

Regional Equities – Protectionism Threatens Export-Driven Markets – June 21, 2018
 · Equities · 

An array of concerns has weighed on global equities since the January peak, most recently with the escalation of U.S. trade protectionist measures.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.



 

Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes · 

Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.



 

WMS – Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity Currencies: Range-Bound With Weakness Ahead – May 25, 2018
Foreign Exchange · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Floors And Ceilings – May 18, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The breakout in U.S. bond yields and rebound in the dollar underscore that the U.S. policy/economic cycle still has momentum.



 

Webcast – FX Roadmap: What To Expect (9min:43sec) – May 16, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar focus on MRB’s latest thematic research and its implications for the U.S. dollar and major developed market currencies over the next few years.



 

Theme – The Trade And Reserve Currency Systems At Risk – May 15, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

The global trading system that is a holdover from the 1944 Bretton Woods conference has passed its sell-by date.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More Churning, But The Cycle Remains Intact – May 11, 2018
 · Commodities · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. inflationary pressures continue to slowly build, and emergency-level interest rates outside of the U.S. are no longer warranted.



 

Foreign Exchange Report – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in the near run.



 

Theme Report – The Next Global Recession: Watching The Canaries – May 2, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The world economy has transitioned from subdued and desynchronized growth with disinflation and emergency policy settings, to a faster paced expansion with gradually building price pressures, and a slow but steady unwinding of hyper-accommodative monetary settings.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Can Stocks Weather Higher Bond Yields? – April 27, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some positive economic surprises this week suggest that global growth is likely to prove resilient.



 

WMS – Foreign Exchange – Canadian Dollar: Risks Are High – April 27, 2018
Foreign Exchange · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Many Moving (i.e. Conflicting) Parts – April 6, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

A moderation in growth momentum, combined with additional Fed rate hikes and, more recently, the escalating trade battle between the U.S. and China, implies continuing market volatility and warrants near-term caution toward risk assets.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…



 

Regional Equities – Heavy Weather – March 28, 2018
 · Equities · 

There are crosscurrents for regional positioning in the near run compared with our base case 6-12 month horizon.



 

WMS – Foreign Exchange – Favor The Norwegian Krone Over The Canadian Dollar – March 23, 2018
Foreign Exchange · 

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Charts – The Great Monetary Unwind: Case By Case Basis – March 13, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed has led the global monetary unwind over the past couple of years, but an increased number of central banks have either joined or are preparing to do so in the months or year ahead.



 

Canada – Economy: Solid, But Highly Interest Rate Sensitive – March 2, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

In a world of rising government bond yields, it is important to monitor those economies that are most vulnerable to rising rates.



 

Foreign Exchange Report – The U.S. Dollar Is Lacking Friends – February 13, 2018
 · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There is a case for a bounce in the U.S. dollar from oversold… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue



 

Charts – A Weak U.S. Dollar Will Benefit Non-U.S. Equity Markets – January 25, 2018
 · Equities · 

The recent divergence between the performance of the U.S. dollar and regional equity market relative returns in common currency terms is unsustainable.



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 18, 2018
 · Themes · 

This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Favors Non-U.S. – December 21, 2017
Equities · 

The recent bout of U.S. market outperformance will gradually fade, with more cyclical markets including EM Asia, the euro area and Japan better positioned to take advantage of the late-stage economic expansion.



 

Webcast – MRB’s Best Long-Term Bets (7min:39sec) – December 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines several of MRB’s multi-year investment recommendations.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Another Small Step, But Staying Behind The Curve – December 15, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The U.S. and euro area economies continue to strengthen, which will sustain better global trade.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.



 

Foreign Exchange Report – Window For Dollar Strength – December 5, 2017
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While the U.S. dollar has struggled to sustainably bounce off its September lows, underlying fundamentals still favor modest but narrow U.S. dollar appreciation.



 

Webcast – The Return Of Inflation: The Big Call For 2018 (10min:43sec) – November 29, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Prajakta Bhide provide MRB’s latest views on U.S. and global inflation. Highlights include:



 

Global Fixed Income Report – November 22, 2017
Fixed Income · 

G7 government bond yields have consolidated for much of 2017, after peaking at the beginning of the year. Stronger global growth has not been sufficient to drive bond yields higher, partially because G7 core inflation has softened.



 

Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

Webcast – The Disinflation Tailwind Has Passed (9min:23sec) – November 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for the major asset classes and examines the key economic, policy and valuations drivers.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – November 1, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes · 

This is the third MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

Long-Term Returns Report – October 26, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · 

The coming decade will see an end to an era of steadily declining discount rates and the associated boost to asset valuations. Prospective returns for balanced portfolios will be middling by historical standards, accompanied by lower Sharpe ratios.



 

Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.



 

WMS – Foreign Exchange – Positioning In Developed Market Commodity Currencies – October 20, 2017
Foreign Exchange · 

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Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part II): The Next Wave – October 19, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the second report of a two-part series, updating our submerging world theme. Part I outlined the ramifications resulting from the mushrooming and subsequent erosion of this segment of the global economy over the past decade.



 

Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.



 

Webcast – Politics Vs Economics And Regional Equity Positioning (7min:58sec) – September 27, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest regional equity outlook and recommendations



 

Regional Equities (Quarterly) – September 21, 2017
 · Equities · 

There has been a significant divergence in relative performance of regional equities recently because of U.S. dollar weakness.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 15, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk appetite measures confirm that investors have become optimistic, but financial stress gauges are still upbeat.



 

Theme – Market Impact If The U.S. Dollar Melts – September 14, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon. In the current environment of solid growth and easy monetary policy, it will take some combination of economically-damaging political turmoil, decisively higher bond yields and/or a material breakdown in the U.S. dollar to threaten equities.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – September 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 8, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-term turbulence in risk assets may persist given the tense political and geopolitical backdrop.



 

Foreign Exchange Report – September 7, 2017
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has faced strong selling pressure this year, despite generally positive underlying fundamentals.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 25, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global stock/bond ratio faces some near-run challenges, but investors should stay positioned… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 21, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Recent currency strength may delay/mute the move by non-U.S. central banks to become… Continue



 

Webcast – Hawkish Bank Of Canada: Justified Or Problematic? (10min:11sec) – July 19, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). July 19 after 2:00… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 14, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Reduce bonds to maximum underweight within a multi-asset portfolio, while boosting cash to… Continue



 

Canada: Is The BoC Making A Misstep? – July 13, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian dollar has firmed on the back of a decisively shift in… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange Report – July 13, 2017
 · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The cyclical advance in the U.S. dollar is not yet over, but upside… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Impacts Of The Great Monetary Unwinding – July 11, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Macro support for bond bulls has been eroding steadily in recent years, a… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 23, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economic surprise index is at a trough, whereas the euro area… Continue



 

Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – June 22, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports An increased number of central banks are feeling pressure to capitulate from an… Continue



 

Long-Term Returns Report – May 25, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Real returns on balanced portfolios will be low in the coming decade, on… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 19, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. political risks have increased and could trigger a risk-off phase. Equity leadership… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – May 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Chinese economy is starting to downshift, while investors are paring back their… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange Report – May 11, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – May 5, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Cyclical macro forces still point to higher G7 yields. The secular outlook for… Continue



 

Webcast – DM Sovereign Debt Markets: Assessing Structural Vulnerabilities (7min:59sec) – April 19, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). April 19 after 2:00… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Assessing Developed Market Sovereign Debt Risks – April 13, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Mismanagement of public finances has left much of the developed world susceptible to… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 10, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global economic backdrop is brighter than has been the case for several… Continue



 

Canada – Canada Finally Faces Its Challenges – February 28, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy has weathered the commodity fallout reasonably well, and growth conditions… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Canada: Economic Optimism Is Premature – June 2, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Household debt will limit the BoC’s ability to raise rates. The sharp rise… Continue



 

Canada Report – June 11, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The collapse in commodity prices will have contagion for the broader Canadian economy…. Continue



 

Canada Report – May 13, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy will continue to be lifted by improving global growth and… Continue



 

Country Report – Canada – November 6, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy and banking system face a more difficult decade ahead, as… Continue



 

Country Report – Canada – February 24, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy is littered with imbalances, leaving a worrisome longer-term outlook. Still,… Continue