2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022


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2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – 2023 FX Outlook: Selectivity Will Be Key – November 29, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

A successful FX strategy in 2023 will entail a major change in tactics, as oversold and undervalued currencies are set to regain strength against the historically overextended U.S. dollar.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.



 

Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.



 

Foreign Exchange – Favor The Euro Versus Currencies In Weak Link Economies – November 2, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The backdrop for the euro area could become much brighter than is currently anticipated…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Tactically Adding More Beta – October 28, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.



 

Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.



 

Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
 · Equities · 

Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.



 

Webcast – Growth Concerns Are Driving Currencies – (11min:22sec) – September 27, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets, leveraging some of the research in this month’s global foreign exchange report.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Recession Fears Are Driving Currencies – September 14, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The dominant driver for FX markets shifted in recent months from interest rate differentials



 

Equities – Canadian Equities: Dealing With Domestic Constraints – August 16, 2022
 · Equities · 

Canadian stock prices have rebounded over the past month along with global stocks, but have a long way to go to get back into the black for the calendar year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.



 

Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
 · Themes · 

The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.



 

Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
 · Equities · 

After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.



 

Global Fixed Income – A Volatile Consolidation – July 8, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

There is a great deal of uncertainty facing fixed-income markets which is reflected in the very elevated level of bond volatility.



 

Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – More Volatility – June 24, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks



 

Canada – Rising Interest Rates Threaten The Canadian Goose – June 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our latest views on the Canadian economy, particularly its interest rate sensitivity.



 

Webcast – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Extended But Propped Up By Risk-Off – (7min:58sec) – June 21, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa provides our latest analysis of the U.S. dollar and global currency markets.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year



 

Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.



 

Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.



 

Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.