MRB TradeBook Update – June 24, 2022


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MRB TradeBook Update – June 24, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks



 

Canada – Rising Interest Rates Threaten The Canadian Goose – June 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our latest views on the Canadian economy, particularly its interest rate sensitivity.



 

Webcast – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Extended But Propped Up By Risk-Off – (7min:58sec) – June 21, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa provides our latest analysis of the U.S. dollar and global currency markets.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year



 

Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.



 

Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.



 

Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Fed Plays Catch-Up – March 30, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The sell-off in the global fixed-income market has been severe over the past several months, particularly for U.S. Treasurys.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – The Impact Of Geopolitics On FX Strategy – March 17, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The shunning of Russia from the global economy has heightened market volatility and created a dent in economic sentiment



 

Economy – Assessing Total Inflation Risks In The Developed World – March 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The MRB Total Inflation Measure offers a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures within an economy by including other sources of inflationary/disinflationary pressures beyond consumer price inflation.



 

Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity-Based Currencies: Where Are The Opportunities? – February 8, 2022
Foreign Exchange · 

Developed commodity-based currencies have decoupled from the rebound in commodity prices in recent months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.



 

Foreign Exchange – FX Portfolio Insurance – January 28, 2022
Foreign Exchange · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Currency Strategy For 2022 – December 21, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights MRB’s currency strategy for next year.



 

Global Fixed Income – The 2022 Fixed Income Outlook: Implications Of The Fed’s “Hawkish” Pivot – December 14, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

The key theme for global fixed-income markets in 2022 will be the capitulation to a less “transitory” and more resilient inflation and growth environment.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Prolonging The Cycle – December 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run COVID-19 related headwinds will act to prolong the economic cycle, but seem unlikely to derail the recovery, based on current information.



 

Policy – Emergency Monetary Policy Is No Longer Required – December 8, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the central banks in the developed world, as well as supporting charts.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.



 

Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt: Assessing Risks After The Binge – November 3, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Public finances across the developed world have deteriorated markedly over the past 10-15 years, as government debt mushroomed to provide an offset for the Great Recession and then to offset the COVID-19 fallout.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period



 

Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Strategy For Resilient Global Growth – September 16, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights that our overarching macro view remains unchanged as we expect the global economy to surprise on the upside over the next year even as growth and trade moderate.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.