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Webinar – EM ex-China Behind The Wheel, China In The Backseat – (59min:33sec) – November 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek addressed the outlook for EM assets in absolute and relative terms over the coming 6-12 months.
Webcast – Developed Economies, Central Banks & Bonds: What To Expect In 2024? – (9min:37sec) – November 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for developed economies, central bank policies, and bond market performance.
2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.
MRB TradeBook – Tweaking Some Positions – November 17, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsU.S. health care stocks have underperformed the broad market in recent days causing us… Continue
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.
Global Economy – Is Global Trade Reviving? – November 10, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports
MRB TradeBook – Some Tactical Changes – November 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
Webcast – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – (7min:09sec) – November 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani looks at the outlook for emerging market equities.
Emerging Market Equities – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – October 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Apart from some strong but short-lived bursts of outperformance, EM stocks have underperformed their DM (mainly U.S.) peers on a trend basis for a long time.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: More Tailwinds – October 17, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM economic growth momentum is firming, which is credit-positive and has been historically accompanied by tightening EM bond spreads.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.
Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.
MRB TradeBook – Mini Replay Of 2022 – October 6, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe are making some changes to the MRB TradeBook in response to the recent… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Will EM Rate Cuts End The Party? – September 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies will appreciate versus the dollar as investors come around to MRB’s no US. recession view and shift their focus to positive EM domestic currency drivers, namely strengthening relative growth momentum.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Emerging Market Equities – Time To Rotate To EM ex-China – August 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For those who have no mandated exposure to EM and make an undifferentiated call on the EM aggregate, we are continuing to recommend an overweight in EM stocks within a global equity portfolio.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.
Webcast – EM Debt: Solid Growth And Rate Cuts Sustain Outperformance – (8min:52sec) – August 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Amr Abdel Khalek discusses the outlook for emerging market government bonds.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Stars Align For EM Local-Currency Debt – July 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Emerging market (EM) growth will accelerate over the next 6-12 months, driven primarily by EM Asia.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Rate Cuts Are Coming – July 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
With conditions falling into place for a softening in the U.S. dollar’s cross rate with major DM currencies…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.
Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”
Regional Equities – Mitigating Concentration Risk Across Regions And Sectors – June 29, 2023
· Equities ·
Global equity market concentration risk has increased anew following the recent outperformance of U.S. tech and AI-related stocks.
Emerging Market Equities – Get Ready To Rotate To EM ex-China – June 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The concept of a single “EM” asset class may well be out-dated (given that 60% of the index comprises China, Korea and Taiwan)…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…
EM Equities – Korea And Taiwan: AI-Phoria? Or Does The Rally Have Legs? – June 22, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Our upgrade of Korea within an EM equity portfolio in January proved timely insofar as Korean and Taiwanese stocks…
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Firming Growth And Rate Cuts Will Sustain Outperformance – June 1, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Firming growth (in the context of disinflation), especially in EM Asia, will improve credit risk of EM local currency debt (EMLCD) relative to DM peers.
Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Come For The Growth, Stay For The Rate Cuts – May 25, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The case for holding EM currencies is primarily predicated on their association with stronger growth and fewer risks to growth than their DM peers.
Webcast – China: Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – (7min:10sec) – May 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.
Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – May 5, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.
Webinar – Investing In EM: China? India? Or Neither? – (59min:17sec) – April 26, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Webinar featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing the outlook for EM investing.
Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.
Emerging Market Equities – It’s All About China, For Now – April 13, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In a world of constrained expectations and earnings counter-currents, EM stocks offer decent prospects for outperformance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Resilient And Poised To Outperform – March 23, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The return outlook for both EM local currency (EMLCD) and U.S. dollar debt may appear unappealing at first glance given how tight spreads are against their U.S. counterparts.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Better Growth Supports EM Currency Appreciation – March 16, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to see good odds of improving global growth conditions this year, with a reopening in China now gaining momentum…
Emerging Market Equities – More Than Just A China Bounce? – February 28, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
With China’s earnings momentum already improving and a material economic rebound under way this year, Chinese stocks are well set to outperform their EM and DM peers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.
Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
· Equities ·
Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.
Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
· Equities ·
There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…
Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.
Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.
Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.
Korea – Export Recovery Papers The Cracks, For Now – January 26, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Korea’s equity market massively underperformed emerging market peers (EM), leaving valuations at extremely attractive levels…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Goldilocks Favors EM Debt – January 19, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
For an investor whose only insight into the EM debt asset class is a chart plotting the spread between EM debt and U.S. Treasury bonds…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Will Break Free Of The Dollar’s Chokehold In 2023 – January 12, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a dizzying array of global economic forces that have dominated the EM currency landscape.
Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth
2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
· Equities ·
A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.
Roundtable – 2023 Outlook For Emerging Market Investing – (60min:00sec) – December 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing MRB’s views for economic growth and asset markets in the emerging markets, covering the following topics:
Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.
Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Will Trump Dollar Debt – October 27, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Spreads for EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have come screaming in over the past three months
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can EM Continue To Outperform DM (ex-U.S.)? – October 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is king. To be fair, this has been the case only for the fourth time since the early-1970s
Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.
MRB TradeBook Update – Financial Markets Approach A Critical Juncture – September 30, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
· Equities ·
Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.
Emerging Market Equities – In Search Of Earnings Growth (At A Reasonable Price) – September 15, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Forward earnings growth is hard to find in the EM world, and is absent from three of its four major bourses
Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Payback Versus Catching Up – August 12, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
As expected, U.S. inflation has rolled over and will decelerate in the coming months, which will boost the prospects for extending the global economic expansion.
Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.
Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.
Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
· Themes ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.
Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
· Themes ·
The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Finding Shelter From The Dollar’s Chokehold – July 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The dominance of the U.S. dollar has become so pervasive in EM currency markets that allocations to EM offer very little diversification in a global currency portfolio
Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
· Equities ·
After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession
Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Emerging Market Equities – China’s Reopening Lifts EM, But For How Long? – June 30, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The long underperformance of EM has swung round into outperformance thanks to the desynchronized nature of Chinese economic momentum and its policy stance versus trends in developed markets (DM).
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.
Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
· Themes ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth
Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
· Asset Allocation · Equities ·
The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Case For EM Debt Is In Relative, Not Absolute Terms – May 12, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The primary bogeyman for EM debt, both in its local currency (EMLCD) and hard currency (EM$D) variants, is a negative global growth shock.
China – How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – May 5, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese stocks and its currency have been buffeted by the fallout from draconian lockdowns that have spread out from the major trade hubs of the country during the course of March and April.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Opportunity Lost, Or Just Delayed? – April 28, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Since the uncertainties unleashed by the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.
Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs Long Term Outlook – April 7, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The macro backdrop has been more supportive for the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies this year.
Emerging Market Equities – Fundamentals And Sentiment Diverge – March 31, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities is clouded by a lack of obvious earnings momentum, and although we still recommend holding it at overweight within a global equity portfolio, we see better opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in Europe.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Breaking From The Dollar Yoke – February 22, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.
Emerging Market Equities – 2022 Outlook – January 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In the face of the self-inflicted deleveraging process hurting its property sector, China bucked the global trend and cut its policy rate this week, while at the same time directing fiscal stimulus towards fixed asset and infrastructure spending.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Follow The Leader, But Also Watch The Laggards – January 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic growth will be more resilient and stronger than last decade, given the more accommodative policy backdrop and fewer structural drags (the end of deleveraging and fiscal austerity in the U.S. and euro area).
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – A Barbell Of Yield And Quality Will Outperform – January 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The traditional macro drivers of EM debt performance, namely credit quality, monetary policy, liquidity and overall growth conditions offer a mixed picture, with strong demand rebounds triggering rising inflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – 2022 EM Currency Outlook: Stay With Quality – December 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.
Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns
Emerging Market Equities – Waiting For The China Bounce – November 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
This year’s powerful revival in global trade and overall demand usually would have been associated with strong EM stock performance
Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Time To Focus More On Quality – October 28, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
It is relatively rare for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at the same time as Treasury yields rise
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.
MRB TradeBook Update – October 8, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy
Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.
Webcast – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – (7min:40sec) – September 29, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani highlights some of the key takeaways from last week’s MRB Emerging Market Equities Report
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.
Emerging Market Equities – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – September 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The overall backdrop for EM equities remains broadly constructive, given the robust trade cycle, solid domestic demand and continuing liquidity support in the world’s leading economies.
Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.
MRB TradeBook Update – September 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Generous Spreads Belie Constructive Backdrop – September 2, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for holding emerging market local-currency denominated debt (EMLCD) is a simple one: the EMLCD spread (over Treasuries) has widened to levels consistent with economic stress
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Dollar Is Still King… Of EM FX Performance – August 26, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
While the ebb and flow of U.S. dollar sentiment will continue to tug at the performance of EM currencies, the overall global trade and economic backdrop over the next year will be supportive of modest dollar weakness
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative
MRB TradeBook Update – August 20, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Emerging Markets – Stuttering Growth May Buffet The Weakest EM Currencies – August 19, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Policymakers in developed economies have dismissed rising inflation as merely “transitory”, but their counterparts in the EM world have already embarked on a rate hiking cycle.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.
Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.
Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
· Themes ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.
Equities – Global Earnings: Catch Up Or Stick With Mo? – July 30, 2021
Equities ·
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Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.
Emerging Market Equities – EM Bank Earnings Turnaround Offers Key Support – July 15, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM earnings momentum is picking up, and broadening beyond the semiconductor sector.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.
MRB TradeBook Update – July 9, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
· Equities ·
The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.
Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.
Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.
Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.
Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.
Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return ·
The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.
Equities – The U.S. Will Bear The Burden Of A Global Minimum Tax – June 11, 2021
Equities ·
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Equities – Global Equities: What Does History Tell Us? – June 4, 2021
Equities ·
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MRB TradeBook Update – June 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt Will Shine While The U.S. Dollar Softens – May 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Two key external drivers of EM bond returns will offer a constructive backdrop in the year ahead.
Webcast – Cyclical, Rather Than Secular Support For Commodities – (10min:17sec) – May 19, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for commodity prices based on current valuations and prospective demand conditions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.
MRB TradeBook Update – May 14, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – When Uncertain, Prioritize Growth – May 13, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The overarching driver of EM currencies is global trade, which offers a strongly positive backdrop and will likely propel appreciation versus a softening U.S. dollar.
Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.
Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – As Good As It Gets – May 7, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The aggressive monetary and fiscal support of the past year helped bring forward and fortify the robust rebound in capital markets relative to underlying economic growth conditions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.
Equities – A Weaker Dollar Will Eventually Favor Unhedged Non-U.S. Equities – April 30, 2021
Equities ·
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Emerging Market Equities – When Global Trade Pops, EM Stocks Sizzle – April 29, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Recent EM underperformance is mostly attributable to the renewed vigor of stocks in the U.S., along with some idiosyncratic risks that have impacted mega-cap Chinese stocks.
Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.
Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.
Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt To Outperform, Even With Rising Global Bond Yields – April 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Three months ago we warned of short-term headwinds to EMLCD returns, while remaining confident of their ability to outperform within a global fixed income portfolio on a 6-12 month view.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.
Global Foreign Exchange – How Long Will U.S. Dollar Resilience Last? – March 30, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
The short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains mildly positive on the back of stronger relative growth (boosted by massive fiscal spending) and still oversold conditions (except versus the euro).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.
Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts
Regional Equities – The Window For Regional Rotation Opens Wider – March 25, 2021
· Equities ·
The massive U.S. fiscal stimulus will provide a major boost to the global economy and corporate earnings in markets and sectors highly geared to global trade.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Don’t Fear The Treasury Bear Market – March 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In the midst of a burst of synchronized global growth, financed by Uncle Sam’s mega-stimulus, EM currencies stand to ride higher on a tide of investor risk appetite.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.
Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.
Global Fixed Income – Challenging The “Lower For Longer” Bond Narrative – March 16, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
Hyper-accommodative monetary and fiscal policies combined with a significant upgrade in economic expectations have caused a rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields
Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.
Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.
China – Yuan Bonds Outperform As Policy “Normalizes” – March 3, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The Chinese economy doesn’t need stimulus, and, in fact, fiscal retrenchment will gather pace this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.
Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Asian Outperformance Worsens EM’s Concentration Problem – (10min:08sec) – February 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB Strategist Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the appropriate positioning for emerging markets within a global equity portfolio
Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.
Emerging Market Equities – Asian Outperformance Will Drive EM To Irrelevance – February 11, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
“Be careful what you wish for” is the Aesop’s fable that applies to long-suffering EM equity investors, who have been waiting a decade for a sustained period of outperformance.
Emerging Market Equities – The Implications Of EM Stock Concentration – February 11, 2021
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
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Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.
MRB TradeBook Update – January 29, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Global Equities – The Risks And Challenges Of Equity Market Concentration – January 28, 2021
· Equities ·
The dominance of the U.S. equity market complicates regional and sectoral equity allocations and results in historically high concentration of portfolios benchmarked to the global index.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.
Emerging Markets – Chinese Equities: Has The Rotation Play Begun? – January 22, 2021
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
This report focuses primarily on the two issues: the outlook for the EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) asset class, and how investors should approach investment in Chinese government bonds.
Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.
Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2020 Review – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports2020 provided a rollercoaster ride in many financial asset markets, as investors were forced… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2021 – (83min:39sec) – December 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webinar, MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2021.
Regional Equities – Outlook 2021: Piecemeal Rotation – December 22, 2020
· Equities ·
The improving economic outlook is positive for equites overall, although it is already well-discounted in share prices (most notably in the U.S.).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.
Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).
Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.
Webcast – Is It Time For Financial Stocks? – (11min:28sec) – November 25, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global financial stocks following the release of the MRB Research Highlight:
“Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership” on November 18, 2020.
Policy – Global Monetary Policy Will Stay Very Accommodative – November 24, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The report is an annual study that compares the relative pressures facing the various central banks in the developed world.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.
Emerging Markets – China’s Corporate Bond Defaults: Now Is The Time – November 20, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
Global Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership – November 18, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Global financial stocks have enjoyed a solid bounce in recent weeks, breaking out of a trading range that had prevailed from June through October.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.
Emerging Market Equities – 2021 Outlook: EM Growth Sizzles, Can Earnings Pop? – November 11, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities in 2021 hinges on their relative earnings outlook, which in turn will be determined by the prospects for a broad-based and reasonably synchronized global economic recovery.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.
Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.
Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.
Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.
Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.
Equities – Global Bank Stocks: Cheap, But… – October 9, 2020
Equities ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.
Webcast – Equity Rotation: Stronger Global Growth Is The Necessary Condition – (10min:12sec) – September 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for performance across the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning in a global equity portfolio.
Global Fixed Income – The Reflationary Bridge And The Bond Market – September 25, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
U.S. and G7 government bond yields have traded in an extremely tight range of late as bond volatility has been crushed by global central banks through highly accommodative policies and strong forward guidance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.
Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
· Equities ·
A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.
Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.
Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Select High-Yield Plays Will Shine – August 25, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Local currency-denominated EM debt (EMLCD) offers attractive yields in a world where investors are challenged by generally richly-valued stocks and bonds, and low expected returns in the developed markets.
Emerging Markets – Liquidity Provides Latitude For Experimental Policies – August 21, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.
Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
· Themes ·
Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”
Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.
Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
· Themes ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.
Emerging Markets Equities – Buying Growth, Or A Bubble, In China – July 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Investors in EM equities rarely face easy choices and the current circumstances offer a particularly challenging mix of risks and opportunities.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.
Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.
Webcast – Catalyst For A Regional Equity Rotation Is Not Yet In View – (9min:51sec) – June 24, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.
Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.
Regional Equities – Greater Earnings Certainty Needed For A Major Rotation – June 18, 2020
· Equities ·
There are important crosscurrents in translating the macro landscape into regional equity positioning.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized ·
Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.
TradeBook Update – June 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Broadening Equity Rally, For Now – May 29, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity rally has spread beyond U.S. large-caps into lagging bourses and sectors.
Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.
Foreign Exchange – AUD Is Still Not A Buy – May 22, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets – India’s Damp Squib Pandemic Package Lays Bare Its Policy Constraints – May 22, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can Post-Pandemic Asia Outperform? – May 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
We remain broadly constructive on the prospects for EM currencies to gain versus the U.S. dollar as North East Asian economies deliver a more successful post-pandemic reopening…
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.
Foreign Exchange – The COVID-19 Effect On The Yen – May 8, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets – Asia’s Pandemic Recedes, But The Economic Restart Lags – May 8, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.
Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.
Foreign Exchange – Differentiating Bounces In Pro-Growth Currencies – April 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.
EM Equities – North Asia To The Fore Again – April 8, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Given the sudden stop nature of the global recession, and its potentially short-lived character (being driven by a pandemic response rather than economic factors)
Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.
Absolute Return – Taking Profits And Tactical Changes – March 27, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.
Webcast – Calculated Assessments Amidst Heightened Uncertainty – (13min:20sec) – March 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Capital markets are struggling against the backdrop of an escalating COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain economic fallout from countermeasures to contain it.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.
Absolute Return – Profiting From A Defensive Stance – March 13, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports We shifted the aggregate MRB TradeBook from a modest pro-growth to a defensive… Continue