MacroResearchBoard
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asia-ex-japan
Webcast – The Center Will Hold – (11min:49sec) – September 11, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation on a 6-12 month horizon.
Emerging Market Equities – Earnings Are Outperforming, Prices Will Follow – September 10, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The stars are aligning for EM stocks, and we expect that several factors will combine and contribute to the outperformance of the asset class over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Powell Signals Green Light For Risk – September 6, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Equity markets have been in a sour mood this week, but the U.S. economic expansion will continue and the looming start of a Fed interest rate cutting cycle reinforces a pro-risk investment climate that is set to prevail on a 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – When The Dust Settles – August 9, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run financial market outlook is clouded by the abrupt souring in investor sentiment related to increased bearishness on the U.S. economic outlook.
MRB TradeBook – Material Swings In Volatility – August 9, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
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Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: Risks Are Skewed To The Downside – July 30, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has been range-bound for almost two years, albeit with some bouts of strength but only against interest rate-sensitive or weak-link currencies and the yen.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Reversals Of Fortune – July 26, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
What had looked likely to be a quiet balance of the summer has given way to new uncertainties in the forms of recent selling pressure among technology/A.I. stocks and the withdrawal of President Biden from the election this November.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Stick With High Yielders – July 25, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local-currency and U.S. dollar-denominated debt will resume outperformance within a global fixed-income portfolio.
Webcast – Summer Grind – (10min:16sec) – July 10, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Dog That Didn’t Bark – July 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The U.S. economy is downshifting from its prior brisk pace, but forecasts of an impending period of outright weakness or even recession are misplaced.
Emerging Market Equities – Trade Recovery Will Sustain The Upside For Stocks – June 27, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Global trade is recovering, despite a rising tide of protectionism. EM stocks typically outperform when trade is strengthening…
Webcast – Dealing With Equity Market Distortions – (11min:54sec) – June 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global equities and appropriate regional equity positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Euro Area Will Not Be Derailed – June 21, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
French politics have created a buying opportunity for regional equities and the euro.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Riding The Coattails Of Improving Global Trade – June 20, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM domestic growth and policy drivers are already supportive of EMFX, and many EM currencies have appreciated against the U.S. dollar over the past 12-18 months.
Global Foreign Exchange – Headed Into Generalized U.S. Dollar Weakness – June 11, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. economy remains resilient and growth concerns in May proved to be premature.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The End Is Not Nigh – June 7, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
While the catalyst for an end of the economic expansion is not yet in place, the investment landscape is likely to be choppy over the next 6-12 months…
Long-Term Returns – A Reckoning Is Inevitable – May 30, 2024
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This old saw is especially relevant as the macro drivers of strong capital market returns over most of the past 40 years no longer pertain.
Webinar – Emerging Markets: Navigating Global Cross Currents – (61min:41sec) – May 22, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
As the global trade cycle recovers and China’s growth firms, the backdrop for EM assets appears solid.
Webcast – Favor Interest Resilient Vs Interest Rate Vulnerable Currencies – (6min:45sec) – May 15, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This week’s Webcast expands upon the main takeaways from last week’s foreign exchange research highlight…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Resilience, Rotation And Divergences – May 10, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy is slowly improving, led by the still-strong U.S. Although the DM weak-link economies have slowed, they are not yet signaling undue stress.
China – Stocks Rally Just As Earnings Fade – May 9, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
It is rare for the momentum of stock prices and of forward earnings to move in opposite directions, but the current rally in Chinese stocks appears to be led by domestic retail investors…
Foreign Exchange – The Global Trade Upswing Supports Export-Driven Currencies – May 8, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
A revival in global trade has historically translated into currency appreciation for export-driven economies for both developed and emerging markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Bank On Fed Rate Cuts – May 3, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Swings in expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to drive global capital market performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Buckle Up: The Backdrop Will Be Challenging – April 26, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Remain underweight bonds within a multi-asset portfolio. Monetary conditions are not yet restrictive, as is evident by firming global growth.
Emerging Market Equities – EM Stocks Will Outperform As Global Trade Recovers – April 25, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
With the level of imports rising in the U.S., China and Japan (albeit not yet in the euro area) a recovery in the global trade cycle is now a reality rather than a forecast.
China – Earnings Are Lagging The Economy – April 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
In the face of near-universal bearishness among the chattering classes overseas about its economic prospects…
Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Any Juice Left To Squeeze? – April 4, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local currency debt (EMLCD) and its US$-denominated counterpart (EM$D) have sharply outperformed U.S. and G7 government bonds over the past two years.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Long-Run Tailwind For Treasury Yields – March 28, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Signs of froth have emerged, but risk-on should persist until the next sustained rise in DM government bond yields develops, which we do not expect in the coming months.
Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Free Money Era Is Officially Over – March 22, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Further near-run upside is probable in risk asset markets.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – March 22, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe recommend tightening stops on our long EM Asian equities position (up 11%) to… Continue
Webcast – The Effects Of Higher Interest Rates On Currency Performance – (8min:12sec) – March 20, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This week’s Webcast covers the highlights of last week’s global foreign exchange report.
Global Foreign Exchange – Selective U.S. Dollar Underperformance – March 12, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has recently softened, after appreciating briefly in January and early-February.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Export Revival Heralds EMFX Outperformance – February 29, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Investors have been operating under the assumption that stronger U.S. growth (and subsequently higher U.S. Treasury yields) inevitably leads to weaker EM currencies, judging by recent negative correlation between the two.
Weekly Macro Strategy – One Window Is Closing, Is Another Opening? – February 23, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed et al have set themselves up for yet another pivot. The hoped-for return of inflation to 2 percent is not going to occur.
Emerging Market Equities – The Stars Align For EM ex-China – February 22, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
What to do about cheap and unloved Chinese stocks? We recognize that many foreign investors have relegated China to “non-investable” status…
Global Economy – EM Asia’s Positive Economic Surprises: Harbinger Or Head-Fake? – February 9, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
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China – Defibrillator Applied To Equities, Again – February 8, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese policymakers have once again applied the defibrillator to stock market sentiment.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Downgrade Alert(s) – January 26, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. economic conditions do not warrant lower policy rates, and such conditions are not likely to develop in 2024.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Another Positive Year Ahead – January 23, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM government debt, both local currency (EMLCD) and US$-denominated (EM$D), handily outperformed their developed market (DM) counterparts last year…
Absolute Return Strategy – From “Soft Landing” To “No Landing” – January 18, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The equity and bond market are both priced for a Goldilocks U.S. economic outcome that is unlikely to persist as the year progresses.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.
2024 Regional Equities Outlook – Banking On Better Breadth – December 21, 2023
· Equities ·
Our constructive economic outlook points to a period of catch-up for this year’s laggards, although it will likely take time to develop.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.
2024 Emerging Market Equities Outlook – Global Trade Revival Will Favor EM – December 19, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM stocks tend to outperform their DM peers when global trade is sturdy, and the first signs of an upturn in global exports are already evident in the bellwether Korean and Taiwanese economies.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Demand, Corporate Profitability, And Inflation Are All Resilient – December 15, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The deceleration in DM inflation will peter out with underlying inflation still well above central bank targets if the global economic expansion rolls on, as we expect.
Webcast – Focus On Diverging Macro Trends For FX Strategy In 2024 – (7min:33sec) – December 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses the big-picture macro theme for 2024 and its ramifications for foreign exchange strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Learning Curve – December 8, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The aggressive front-running of the next rate-cutting cycle is working at cross purposes to monetary policy and will prolong the expansion, as signaled by the sharp flip from risk-off to risk-on in recent weeks.
2024 China Outlook – Steady Growth Ahead – December 7, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Although few headlines in the financial media reflect this, 2023 was a year of solid, if patchy, economic growth momentum in China, which is closing out well ahead of mid-year consensus expectations.
2024 Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Outlook – Clearer Skies Ahead – December 5, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
EM currencies were resilient this year in the face of several exogenous headwinds, including rising U.S. Treasury yields…
Webinar – EM ex-China Behind The Wheel, China In The Backseat – (59min:33sec) – November 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek addressed the outlook for EM assets in absolute and relative terms over the coming 6-12 months.
Webcast – Developed Economies, Central Banks & Bonds: What To Expect In 2024? – (9min:37sec) – November 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for developed economies, central bank policies, and bond market performance.
2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.
MRB TradeBook – Tweaking Some Positions – November 17, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsU.S. health care stocks have underperformed the broad market in recent days causing us… Continue
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.
Global Economy – Is Global Trade Reviving? – November 10, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
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MRB TradeBook – Some Tactical Changes – November 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
Webcast – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – (7min:09sec) – November 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani looks at the outlook for emerging market equities.
Emerging Market Equities – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – October 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Apart from some strong but short-lived bursts of outperformance, EM stocks have underperformed their DM (mainly U.S.) peers on a trend basis for a long time.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: More Tailwinds – October 17, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM economic growth momentum is firming, which is credit-positive and has been historically accompanied by tightening EM bond spreads.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.
Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.
MRB TradeBook – Mini Replay Of 2022 – October 6, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe are making some changes to the MRB TradeBook in response to the recent… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Will EM Rate Cuts End The Party? – September 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies will appreciate versus the dollar as investors come around to MRB’s no US. recession view and shift their focus to positive EM domestic currency drivers, namely strengthening relative growth momentum.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Emerging Market Equities – Time To Rotate To EM ex-China – August 24, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For those who have no mandated exposure to EM and make an undifferentiated call on the EM aggregate, we are continuing to recommend an overweight in EM stocks within a global equity portfolio.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.
Webcast – EM Debt: Solid Growth And Rate Cuts Sustain Outperformance – (8min:52sec) – August 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Amr Abdel Khalek discusses the outlook for emerging market government bonds.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Stars Align For EM Local-Currency Debt – July 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Emerging market (EM) growth will accelerate over the next 6-12 months, driven primarily by EM Asia.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Rate Cuts Are Coming – July 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
With conditions falling into place for a softening in the U.S. dollar’s cross rate with major DM currencies…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.
Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”
Regional Equities – Mitigating Concentration Risk Across Regions And Sectors – June 29, 2023
· Equities ·
Global equity market concentration risk has increased anew following the recent outperformance of U.S. tech and AI-related stocks.
Emerging Market Equities – Get Ready To Rotate To EM ex-China – June 27, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The concept of a single “EM” asset class may well be out-dated (given that 60% of the index comprises China, Korea and Taiwan)…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…
EM Equities – Korea And Taiwan: AI-Phoria? Or Does The Rally Have Legs? – June 22, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Our upgrade of Korea within an EM equity portfolio in January proved timely insofar as Korean and Taiwanese stocks…
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Firming Growth And Rate Cuts Will Sustain Outperformance – June 1, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Firming growth (in the context of disinflation), especially in EM Asia, will improve credit risk of EM local currency debt (EMLCD) relative to DM peers.
Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Come For The Growth, Stay For The Rate Cuts – May 25, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The case for holding EM currencies is primarily predicated on their association with stronger growth and fewer risks to growth than their DM peers.
Webcast – China: Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – (7min:10sec) – May 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.
Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – May 5, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.
Webinar – Investing In EM: China? India? Or Neither? – (59min:17sec) – April 26, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Webinar featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing the outlook for EM investing.
Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.
Emerging Market Equities – It’s All About China, For Now – April 13, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In a world of constrained expectations and earnings counter-currents, EM stocks offer decent prospects for outperformance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Resilient And Poised To Outperform – March 23, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The return outlook for both EM local currency (EMLCD) and U.S. dollar debt may appear unappealing at first glance given how tight spreads are against their U.S. counterparts.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Better Growth Supports EM Currency Appreciation – March 16, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to see good odds of improving global growth conditions this year, with a reopening in China now gaining momentum…
Emerging Market Equities – More Than Just A China Bounce? – February 28, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
With China’s earnings momentum already improving and a material economic rebound under way this year, Chinese stocks are well set to outperform their EM and DM peers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.
Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
· Equities ·
Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.
Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
· Equities ·
There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…
Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.
Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.
Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.
Korea – Export Recovery Papers The Cracks, For Now – January 26, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Korea’s equity market massively underperformed emerging market peers (EM), leaving valuations at extremely attractive levels…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Goldilocks Favors EM Debt – January 19, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
For an investor whose only insight into the EM debt asset class is a chart plotting the spread between EM debt and U.S. Treasury bonds…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Will Break Free Of The Dollar’s Chokehold In 2023 – January 12, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a dizzying array of global economic forces that have dominated the EM currency landscape.
Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth
2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
· Equities ·
A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.
Roundtable – 2023 Outlook For Emerging Market Investing – (60min:00sec) – December 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing MRB’s views for economic growth and asset markets in the emerging markets, covering the following topics:
Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.
Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Will Trump Dollar Debt – October 27, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Spreads for EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have come screaming in over the past three months
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can EM Continue To Outperform DM (ex-U.S.)? – October 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is king. To be fair, this has been the case only for the fourth time since the early-1970s
Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.
MRB TradeBook Update – Financial Markets Approach A Critical Juncture – September 30, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
· Equities ·
Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.
Emerging Market Equities – In Search Of Earnings Growth (At A Reasonable Price) – September 15, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Forward earnings growth is hard to find in the EM world, and is absent from three of its four major bourses
Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Payback Versus Catching Up – August 12, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
As expected, U.S. inflation has rolled over and will decelerate in the coming months, which will boost the prospects for extending the global economic expansion.
Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.
Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.
Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
· Themes ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.
Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
· Themes ·
The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Finding Shelter From The Dollar’s Chokehold – July 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The dominance of the U.S. dollar has become so pervasive in EM currency markets that allocations to EM offer very little diversification in a global currency portfolio
Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
· Equities ·
After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession
Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Emerging Market Equities – China’s Reopening Lifts EM, But For How Long? – June 30, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The long underperformance of EM has swung round into outperformance thanks to the desynchronized nature of Chinese economic momentum and its policy stance versus trends in developed markets (DM).
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.
Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
· Themes ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth
Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
· Asset Allocation · Equities ·
The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Case For EM Debt Is In Relative, Not Absolute Terms – May 12, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The primary bogeyman for EM debt, both in its local currency (EMLCD) and hard currency (EM$D) variants, is a negative global growth shock.
China – How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – May 5, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese stocks and its currency have been buffeted by the fallout from draconian lockdowns that have spread out from the major trade hubs of the country during the course of March and April.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Opportunity Lost, Or Just Delayed? – April 28, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Since the uncertainties unleashed by the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.
Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs Long Term Outlook – April 7, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The macro backdrop has been more supportive for the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies this year.
Emerging Market Equities – Fundamentals And Sentiment Diverge – March 31, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities is clouded by a lack of obvious earnings momentum, and although we still recommend holding it at overweight within a global equity portfolio, we see better opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in Europe.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Breaking From The Dollar Yoke – February 22, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.
Emerging Market Equities – 2022 Outlook – January 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
In the face of the self-inflicted deleveraging process hurting its property sector, China bucked the global trend and cut its policy rate this week, while at the same time directing fiscal stimulus towards fixed asset and infrastructure spending.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Follow The Leader, But Also Watch The Laggards – January 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic growth will be more resilient and stronger than last decade, given the more accommodative policy backdrop and fewer structural drags (the end of deleveraging and fiscal austerity in the U.S. and euro area).
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – A Barbell Of Yield And Quality Will Outperform – January 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The traditional macro drivers of EM debt performance, namely credit quality, monetary policy, liquidity and overall growth conditions offer a mixed picture, with strong demand rebounds triggering rising inflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – 2022 EM Currency Outlook: Stay With Quality – December 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.
Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns
Emerging Market Equities – Waiting For The China Bounce – November 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
This year’s powerful revival in global trade and overall demand usually would have been associated with strong EM stock performance
Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Time To Focus More On Quality – October 28, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
It is relatively rare for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at the same time as Treasury yields rise
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.
MRB TradeBook Update – October 8, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy
Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.
Webcast – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – (7min:40sec) – September 29, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani highlights some of the key takeaways from last week’s MRB Emerging Market Equities Report
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.
Emerging Market Equities – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – September 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The overall backdrop for EM equities remains broadly constructive, given the robust trade cycle, solid domestic demand and continuing liquidity support in the world’s leading economies.
Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.
MRB TradeBook Update – September 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Generous Spreads Belie Constructive Backdrop – September 2, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for holding emerging market local-currency denominated debt (EMLCD) is a simple one: the EMLCD spread (over Treasuries) has widened to levels consistent with economic stress
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Dollar Is Still King… Of EM FX Performance – August 26, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
While the ebb and flow of U.S. dollar sentiment will continue to tug at the performance of EM currencies, the overall global trade and economic backdrop over the next year will be supportive of modest dollar weakness
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative
MRB TradeBook Update – August 20, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Emerging Markets – Stuttering Growth May Buffet The Weakest EM Currencies – August 19, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Policymakers in developed economies have dismissed rising inflation as merely “transitory”, but their counterparts in the EM world have already embarked on a rate hiking cycle.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.
Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.
Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
· Themes ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.
Equities – Global Earnings: Catch Up Or Stick With Mo? – July 30, 2021
Equities ·
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Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.
Emerging Market Equities – EM Bank Earnings Turnaround Offers Key Support – July 15, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM earnings momentum is picking up, and broadening beyond the semiconductor sector.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.
MRB TradeBook Update – July 9, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
· Equities ·
The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.
Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.
Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.
Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.
Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.
Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return ·
The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.
Equities – The U.S. Will Bear The Burden Of A Global Minimum Tax – June 11, 2021
Equities ·
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Equities – Global Equities: What Does History Tell Us? – June 4, 2021
Equities ·
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MRB TradeBook Update – June 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt Will Shine While The U.S. Dollar Softens – May 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Two key external drivers of EM bond returns will offer a constructive backdrop in the year ahead.
Webcast – Cyclical, Rather Than Secular Support For Commodities – (10min:17sec) – May 19, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for commodity prices based on current valuations and prospective demand conditions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.
MRB TradeBook Update – May 14, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – When Uncertain, Prioritize Growth – May 13, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The overarching driver of EM currencies is global trade, which offers a strongly positive backdrop and will likely propel appreciation versus a softening U.S. dollar.
Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.
Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – As Good As It Gets – May 7, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The aggressive monetary and fiscal support of the past year helped bring forward and fortify the robust rebound in capital markets relative to underlying economic growth conditions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.
Equities – A Weaker Dollar Will Eventually Favor Unhedged Non-U.S. Equities – April 30, 2021
Equities ·
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Emerging Market Equities – When Global Trade Pops, EM Stocks Sizzle – April 29, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Recent EM underperformance is mostly attributable to the renewed vigor of stocks in the U.S., along with some idiosyncratic risks that have impacted mega-cap Chinese stocks.
Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.
Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.
Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt To Outperform, Even With Rising Global Bond Yields – April 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Three months ago we warned of short-term headwinds to EMLCD returns, while remaining confident of their ability to outperform within a global fixed income portfolio on a 6-12 month view.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.
Global Foreign Exchange – How Long Will U.S. Dollar Resilience Last? – March 30, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
The short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains mildly positive on the back of stronger relative growth (boosted by massive fiscal spending) and still oversold conditions (except versus the euro).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.
Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts
Regional Equities – The Window For Regional Rotation Opens Wider – March 25, 2021
· Equities ·
The massive U.S. fiscal stimulus will provide a major boost to the global economy and corporate earnings in markets and sectors highly geared to global trade.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Don’t Fear The Treasury Bear Market – March 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In the midst of a burst of synchronized global growth, financed by Uncle Sam’s mega-stimulus, EM currencies stand to ride higher on a tide of investor risk appetite.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.
Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.
Global Fixed Income – Challenging The “Lower For Longer” Bond Narrative – March 16, 2021
· Fixed Income ·
Hyper-accommodative monetary and fiscal policies combined with a significant upgrade in economic expectations have caused a rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields
Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.
Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.
China – Yuan Bonds Outperform As Policy “Normalizes” – March 3, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The Chinese economy doesn’t need stimulus, and, in fact, fiscal retrenchment will gather pace this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.
Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Asian Outperformance Worsens EM’s Concentration Problem – (10min:08sec) – February 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB Strategist Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the appropriate positioning for emerging markets within a global equity portfolio
Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.
Emerging Market Equities – Asian Outperformance Will Drive EM To Irrelevance – February 11, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
“Be careful what you wish for” is the Aesop’s fable that applies to long-suffering EM equity investors, who have been waiting a decade for a sustained period of outperformance.
Emerging Market Equities – The Implications Of EM Stock Concentration – February 11, 2021
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
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Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.
MRB TradeBook Update – January 29, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Global Equities – The Risks And Challenges Of Equity Market Concentration – January 28, 2021
· Equities ·
The dominance of the U.S. equity market complicates regional and sectoral equity allocations and results in historically high concentration of portfolios benchmarked to the global index.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.
Emerging Markets – Chinese Equities: Has The Rotation Play Begun? – January 22, 2021
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
This report focuses primarily on the two issues: the outlook for the EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) asset class, and how investors should approach investment in Chinese government bonds.
Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.
Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2020 Review – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports2020 provided a rollercoaster ride in many financial asset markets, as investors were forced… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2021 – (83min:39sec) – December 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webinar, MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2021.
Regional Equities – Outlook 2021: Piecemeal Rotation – December 22, 2020
· Equities ·
The improving economic outlook is positive for equites overall, although it is already well-discounted in share prices (most notably in the U.S.).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.
Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).
Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.
Webcast – Is It Time For Financial Stocks? – (11min:28sec) – November 25, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global financial stocks following the release of the MRB Research Highlight:
“Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership” on November 18, 2020.
Policy – Global Monetary Policy Will Stay Very Accommodative – November 24, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The report is an annual study that compares the relative pressures facing the various central banks in the developed world.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.
Emerging Markets – China’s Corporate Bond Defaults: Now Is The Time – November 20, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
Global Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership – November 18, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Global financial stocks have enjoyed a solid bounce in recent weeks, breaking out of a trading range that had prevailed from June through October.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.
Emerging Market Equities – 2021 Outlook: EM Growth Sizzles, Can Earnings Pop? – November 11, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The outlook for EM equities in 2021 hinges on their relative earnings outlook, which in turn will be determined by the prospects for a broad-based and reasonably synchronized global economic recovery.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.
Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.
Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.
Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.
Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.
Equities – Global Bank Stocks: Cheap, But… – October 9, 2020
Equities ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.
Webcast – Equity Rotation: Stronger Global Growth Is The Necessary Condition – (10min:12sec) – September 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for performance across the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning in a global equity portfolio.
Global Fixed Income – The Reflationary Bridge And The Bond Market – September 25, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
U.S. and G7 government bond yields have traded in an extremely tight range of late as bond volatility has been crushed by global central banks through highly accommodative policies and strong forward guidance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.
Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
· Equities ·
A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.
Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.
Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Select High-Yield Plays Will Shine – August 25, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Local currency-denominated EM debt (EMLCD) offers attractive yields in a world where investors are challenged by generally richly-valued stocks and bonds, and low expected returns in the developed markets.
Emerging Markets – Liquidity Provides Latitude For Experimental Policies – August 21, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.
Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
· Themes ·
Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”
Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.
Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
· Themes ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.
Emerging Markets Equities – Buying Growth, Or A Bubble, In China – July 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Investors in EM equities rarely face easy choices and the current circumstances offer a particularly challenging mix of risks and opportunities.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.
Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.
Webcast – Catalyst For A Regional Equity Rotation Is Not Yet In View – (9min:51sec) – June 24, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.
Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.
Regional Equities – Greater Earnings Certainty Needed For A Major Rotation – June 18, 2020
· Equities ·
There are important crosscurrents in translating the macro landscape into regional equity positioning.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized ·
Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.
TradeBook Update – June 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Broadening Equity Rally, For Now – May 29, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity rally has spread beyond U.S. large-caps into lagging bourses and sectors.
Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.
Foreign Exchange – AUD Is Still Not A Buy – May 22, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets – India’s Damp Squib Pandemic Package Lays Bare Its Policy Constraints – May 22, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can Post-Pandemic Asia Outperform? – May 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
We remain broadly constructive on the prospects for EM currencies to gain versus the U.S. dollar as North East Asian economies deliver a more successful post-pandemic reopening…
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.
Foreign Exchange – The COVID-19 Effect On The Yen – May 8, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets – Asia’s Pandemic Recedes, But The Economic Restart Lags – May 8, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.
Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.
Foreign Exchange – Differentiating Bounces In Pro-Growth Currencies – April 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.
EM Equities – North Asia To The Fore Again – April 8, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Given the sudden stop nature of the global recession, and its potentially short-lived character (being driven by a pandemic response rather than economic factors)
Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.
Absolute Return – Taking Profits And Tactical Changes – March 27, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.
Webcast – Calculated Assessments Amidst Heightened Uncertainty – (13min:20sec) – March 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Capital markets are struggling against the backdrop of an escalating COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertain economic fallout from countermeasures to contain it.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.
Absolute Return – Profiting From A Defensive Stance – March 13, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports We shifted the aggregate MRB TradeBook from a modest pro-growth to a defensive… Continue
Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – After The Virus… Recession Or Outperformance? – March 10, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Foreign exchange markets have seen volatility spike in recent weeks as investors grapple with the potential growth shock associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.
Webcast – COVID-19 And Investment Strategy (10min:09sec) – March 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest take on COVID-19 and how it will impact investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (19min:00sec) – February 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
. In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month, including the virus.
Webcast – Buybacks Are An Important Factor In The U.S. ROE Advantage (11min:53sec) – February 19, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins takes a close look at return on equity in the major markets over the past decade and highlights some important drivers and considerations for valuations.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.
Equities – Global Return On Equity: Looks Can Be Deceiving – February 13, 2020
· Equities ·
The U.S.’ 5% ROE advantage versus the global ex-U.S. benchmark certainly helps underpin the premium valuation on U.S. stocks, which in the case of the price-to-book ratio exceeds 100%.
Webcast – EM Equities: Still In Choppy Waters (7min:45sec) – February 12, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses positioning on EM stocks in a global equity portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.
Policy – Little Pressure On Monetary Policy This Year – February 6, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The challenge heading forward for policymakers will be for those markets facing housing and credit excesses that ultimately will limit, if not prevent, any monetary tightening.
Emerging Market Equities – Buy On (Viral) Dips, But Only Selectively – February 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
For the next several weeks, global investors may be mesmerized by the potential hit to global growth associated with China’s coronavirus epidemic.
Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.
Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.
China – The Wuhan Epidemic’s Growth Impact – January 30, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum ended 2019 with a bang, and started 2020 showing above-trend growth, propelled by a sharp recovery in industrial output, exports and imports.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue
Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Bonds: The Best Of The Credit Universe – January 21, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The outlook for EM local currency debt (EMLCD) can be summarized as “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”, but there are no steamrollers to be seen on a 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.
Foreign Exchange – Upgrade The Singapore Dollar To Overweight – January 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets – CNY: Manipulating The Manipulator Tag – January 17, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Upgrade EM Currencies Versus The U.S. Dollar – January 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
A steady if unspectacular improvement in global trade momentum, along with supportive global liquidity, imply that conditions are ripening for the outperformance of an EM currency basket versus…
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.
Regional Equities – 2020 Outlook: Muted Earnings Upside – December 19, 2019
· Equities ·
An anticipated moderate rebound in global manufacturing and trade activity will not be enough for global ex-U.S. relative earnings to reverse the underlying downtrend versus the U.S. that has prevailed for most of this expansion.
Webcast – FX Strategy For 2020 (13min:31sec) – December 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this today’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the outlook for FX strategy in 2020.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Positioning For 2020 – December 12, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report outlines our FX positioning in 2020. This year the U.S. dollar traded marginally higher on the back of weaker external growth and ongoing uncertainty associated with trade and politics.
Emerging Markets Equities – 2020 EM Equity Outlook: “Another 2012”? – December 12, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Economic momentum in the EM world has been improving, and against a backdrop of softer global data is now superior to DM momentum for the first time since 2012.
Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.
Webcast – Dividends For The Long Run (8min:24sec) – November 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins examines global dividends and their potential contribution to equity returns in the years ahead.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Outperformance Can Continue Awhile – November 26, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for overweighting EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) in a global fixed income portfolio is straightforward.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – A Skinny Trade Deal Adds Comfort, Not Return – November 19, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In a growth-challenged world, EM currencies are unlikely to escape the see-saw impact of global risk appetite, and will continue to maintain their negative correlation with the U.S. dollar.
Absolute Return – MRB TradeBook Update – November 8, 2019
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Asset Allocation Strategy – No Recession, But Not Much Growth Ahead – November 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
We expect the economic expansion to continue, but there is little basis for concluding a robust rebound in activity and profits looms over the next year that would justify a decidedly pro-growth investment posture.
Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.
Emerging Markets Equities – The Tech Tide Turns, Will The Rest Follow? – October 10, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The rule of thumb for EM allocations in a global equity portfolio has been to look to global trade momentum as the key strategy signal. The current cycle is unique in this regard.
Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.
Regional Equities – Hewing Close To Home – September 26, 2019
· Equities ·
Only selective deviations from regional benchmark weightings have a favorable risk-reward profile in a global equity portfolio given the policy and economic backdrop.
China – Chinese Economic Momentum Softens And Stocks Rally (As Usual) – September 25, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese domestic-listed stocks are rallying while economic momentum hits another soft patch.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Growth Plus DM Liquidity: Goldilocks For Bonds – September 24, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Growth momentum in the emerging markets is lacklustre, but recession risks are low.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Absorbing Another Body Blow – September 20, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Better-than-expected U.S. growth and an upward creep in core inflation herald a pause in Fed easing.
Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Profiting From Prudence – September 6, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Despite the potential allure of an aggressive cyclical bet, prudence warrants plotting a broadly neutral course for now.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Indiscriminate Weakness Opens Up Opportunities – September 5, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Whether weighted by equity or debt benchmarks, EM currency aggregates have given up all their 12-month gains relative to the U.S. dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Third Time Lucky, Or The End Of The Cycle? – August 30, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investors should refrain from aggressive positioning on the basis of expected trade talk outcomes given the difficulty of forecasting President Trump/China’s next moves.
Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.
Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).
Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – The Fed Forgives, But Several Leaps Of Faith Still Required – July 11, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equity investors are required to take several leaps of faith when looking at prospects for the year ahead.
Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.
Regional Equities – Limited Late-Cycle Beta Warranted – June 28, 2019
· Equities ·
The health of the global economic expansion will be the key driver of relative equity market performance in the year ahead, rather than valuations or monetary policy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Fed, ECB Will Flatter EM Bond Returns – June 27, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Central banks sometimes offer precautionary easing in the face of threats that do not subsequently play out as feared – an example being the Fed’s response to the LTCM episode, which sustained a well-advanced investment cycle.
Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.
Global Foreign Exchange – Making Selective Non-Dollar Bets – June 25, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
The global economy and investor expectations have been caught between the clash in policy forces of heightened trade tensions and further monetary reflation.
China – Will China Reflate, And What Would It Mean If It Did? – June 19, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Once a month, we review current Chinese macroeconomic indicators for signs of shifting momentum, potential policy adjustments and the outlook for China-related assets.
Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fed Props Up EM FX While Growth Fades – June 11, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Protectionist rhetoric has ratcheted higher, dovish developed market central banks are mollifying jittery capital markets while EM assets offer a very attractive carry.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.
Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
· Themes ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.
Equities – Australian Equities: Material Risk – May 30, 2019
Equities ·
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Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.
Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy ·
The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.
Equities – An Aging Global Earnings Cycle Still Offers Upside – May 16, 2019
· Equities ·
The current economic expansion is the longest on record, if measured by the U.S. cycle.
Emerging Market Equities – Political Risks Warrant A Neutral Call – May 16, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The EM earnings backdrop remains modestly positive, which is consistent with stabilizing, rather than recovering, global trade momentum.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.
Emerging Markets – Korean Equities: It’s Now Or Never – May 10, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – It’s All About The Carry Now – April 25, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Yields on EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have declined dramatically in recent months, in line with the trend in U.S. Treasurys.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Stabilizing Growth, Easy Liquidity – April 16, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In terms of global liquidity and growth prospects, 2019 is playing out as the reverse of last year: growth is stabilizing and liquidity is plentiful, courtesy of the dovish U-turn.
Regional Equities Report – A Sustained Expansion Favors Cyclical Markets – March 26, 2019
· Equities ·
We expect equity prices to be higher over the next 6-12 months, albeit with periodic setbacks that will test nerves.
Emerging Market Equities – A Narrowing Base, But Liquidity Is Forgiving – March 19, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
The case for overweighting emerging markets in a global equity portfolio rests on a narrowing base.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Desynchronized World – March 18, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has drifted slightly higher on the back of slower global growth and ongoing investor uncertainty about the economic outlook.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Tortoise Cycle – March 15, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The window of opportunity for further gains in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist for the next 6 to 12 months.
Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.
Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.
China – Looking Past The Data Drought – February 21, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
After a miserable 2018, Chinese stocks have rallied hard since the lunar new year holiday and are up 14% year-to-date. At the same time, foreign media reports about China have been focused on a very gloomy prognosis for the economy.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Fixed Income Will Outperform – February 14, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local-currency bond yields are highly correlated with U.S. Treasury yields, and as the latter have eased back from early October highs, so have EM yields.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fog Of (Trade) War Is Lifting – February 7, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies’ modest revival since October reflects in part their oversold nature after a torrid mid-year selloff last year.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – Focus On Financials, Trade Worries Will Dissipate – January 17, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Of the four major drivers of recent EM equity outperformance – currency trends, internet stocks, financials and, more generally…
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Outperformance Will Continue – December 20, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) has demonstrated extraordinary resilience recently by outperforming U.S. Treasurys in a year buffeted by trade war angst, a purported EM “currency crisis”
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – The Stealth EM Recovery Has (Patchy) Support – December 13, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
EM currencies have mounted a stealth recovery since late September, despite a sharp increase in risk aversion and a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Korea And Taiwan Equities: Collateral Damage – November 16, 2018
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
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Charts – China: Talking Up A Recovery – October 24, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
This year’s deceleration of Chinese economic activity is on track, with the epicenter being a sharp retreat in public infrastructure spending.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Limited Growth Risks And Attractive Valuations – October 11, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
After a period of EM local-currency bond underperformance in recent months, investors are increasingly distinguishing between those selected EM assets.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Rebalance For The Rebound – October 4, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies have recently decoupled from the U.S. dollar, forming a tentative bottom despite the dollar’s latest spike.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Is The Worst Over? – September 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
On/off trade worries are again receding, spurring a risk-on phase. The global stock/bond ratio has room to rise, as positive economic fundamentals will persist.
Regional Equities – Relative Extremes Cannot Be Sustained – September 20, 2018
· Equities ·
Global equities have diverged sharply this year, with the U.S. market roaring to new highs, while most non-U.S. benchmarks have faltered since hitting cyclical peaks early this year.
Asia Ex-Japan – China Macro Update: A Narrow Slowdown – September 18, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
The data releases for August indicate that Chinese economic growth is decelerating, but this is an extremely soft landing.
Webcast – Liquidity And The Investment Cycle (9min:47sec) – September 12, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins and Adam Wolfe discuss key issues for the investment outlook, namely global liquidity conditions and the threat of an EM crisis, as well offer perspectives from our Asian client-base, following Adam’s recent regional road-trip
Asset Allocation Strategy – Liquidity Fears Are Overdone – September 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Fears of a squeeze on global liquidity are increasing, as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and continues its grad
Emerging Market Equities Report – Trade Peace First, Outperformance Next – September 6, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have taken a hit in the last several months and market narratives tend to blame currency weakness in several G20 economies (Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Turkey) and the threat of trade war.
Asia Ex-Japan – Trade Anxiety Should Fade – August 28, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Whether due to fears of a global trade war, a significant yuan devaluation,… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.
Webcast – Will Asia Catch The Turkish Flu? (5min:59sec) – August 15, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast, Adam Wolfe discusses the Turkish currency crisis, China’s exchange rate management issues, and the potential for contagion in Asia.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Gauging The Contagion Risks For EM Asian Currencies – August 14, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
With Turkey on the edge of a currency and financial crisis, fears of contagion have spread to EM Asia.
Webcast – EM Currencies’ Trade Tantrum (7min:23sec) – August 8, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for EM currencies after the last few weeks of investor nervousness towards this asset class.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Where There’s Muck, There’s Brass – August 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Three distinct narratives combined earlier this year to buffet EM currencies, albeit on a scale that is rather modest by the standards of 2013’s “Taper Tantrum” and 2014-2015’s commodity price meltdown.
WMS – Commodities – Copper Had A Healthy Correction And Can Now Outperform – July 27, 2018
Commodities ·
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Asia Ex-Japan Report – Policy Debate Stokes Yuan Fears – July 24, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Any forthcoming monetary easing is likely to be less than is already discounted by the markets, while a loosening of the fiscal screws should provide support for the yuan.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China Macro Update: Demand And Production Start To Realign – July 17, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese stock prices and the yuan have reflected concerns about a sharper economic slowdown ever since the demand-side measures fell short
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – No Blinking So Far – July 13, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The trade war has not de-escalated. Thus, equity prices will remain at risk in the near run, and bond prices will stay supported.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – Love It, Or Leave It – July 12, 2018
Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have decent earnings growth potential and recent selling pressure has restored attractive valuations.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Bear: Hunt Or Run? – July 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Despite large differences in sector composition, valuations, and international trade exposure, correlations between China’s CSI-300 index, the MSCI China and MSCI Hong Kong indexes have risen to the highest levels in more than a decade.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Churn Continues – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report revisits three topics that continue to be heavily debated and which we believe investors are focused inappropriately.
Webcast – The China Syndrome: Containment Or Contagion? (6min:29sec) – July 4, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Adam Wolfe discusses the recent weakness in the Chinese yuan and Chinese stock prices.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – The Drums Of Trade War Echo Across Asia – June 28, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Sino-U.S. trade tensions have weighed heavily on Asia ex-Japan equities in recent weeks as the phony trade war now seems to be escalating into the real thing.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China Macro Update: Tight Credit Weighs On Investment – June 19, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum remained robust in May, with the MRB Early Economic Activity Indicator signaling…
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Positive Growth Beats Negative Liquidity – June 14, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
There is no imminent threat of an EM debt crisis.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Asia Policy Round Up: Gearing Up For The 2019 Elections – June 12, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
The U.S. dollar’s recent appreciation has bifurcated monetary policy across South and Southeast Asia.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Is The Trade Tide Turning? – June 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies almost always deliver decent returns to global investors when there is a positive global trade cycle, and rarely do so when global trade decelerates.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Can 1997 Happen Again? – June 5, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
U.S. dollar appreciation since April has exposed balance-sheet weaknesses in a handful of EMs, sparking fears of a currency crisis and contagion.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bet On Resilience – June 1, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The political crisis in Italy is the latest headwind for risk assets and the global economy
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Navigating The Political Risks In Southeast Asia – May 29, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
After a shock election result, the new government in Malaysia has been grappling with the hidden fiscal weakness left behind by the previous, deeply corrupt ruling coalition.
Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – Uncertainty Will Give Way To Optimism – May 22, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The relative performance of Asia Ex-Japan equities has been stuck in a choppy sideways trading range this year due to worries about global economic growth, rising U.S. Treasury yields and an appreciating dollar, as well as margin pressure in China’s technology sector.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Floors And Ceilings – May 18, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakout in U.S. bond yields and rebound in the dollar underscore that the U.S. policy/economic cycle still has momentum.
Asia Ex-Japan – Growth Fears Are Overblown – May 16, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s soft landing remained on track in April. The MRB China Early Economic… Continue
Theme – The Trade And Reserve Currency Systems At Risk – May 15, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
The global trading system that is a holdover from the 1944 Bretton Woods conference has passed its sell-by date.
WMS – Economy – Rising Inflation: This Time, It’s Not An EM Thing – May 11, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Asia Ex-Japan – Indian Risk Assets: An Underwhelming Outlook – May 8, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
India’s economic recovery from the twin shocks of demonetization and the poorly managed rollout of the Goods & Services Tax (GST) has been disappointing.
Emerging Market Equities Report – Not The End, Yet – May 8, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global trade growth has been the single most reliable indicator of EM equity… Continue
Theme Report – The Next Global Recession: Watching The Canaries – May 2, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The world economy has transitioned from subdued and desynchronized growth with disinflation and emergency policy settings, to a faster paced expansion with gradually building price pressures, and a slow but steady unwinding of hyper-accommodative monetary settings.
Asia Ex-Japan – Chinese Banks: Earnings Are Looking Up – May 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
China’s listed banks are likely to see a reduction in provisioning costs over the next two years, which should deliver the strongest earnings growth since 2013.
Asia Ex-Japan – China Macro Update: An Unsustainable Property Rebound – April 24, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
China’s economic resilience in Q1 was largely driven by a rebound in residential construction, which propped up the heavy industrial sector.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Confidence Hold? – April 20, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is cooling after last year’s mini-boom, but a sizable slowdown is unlikely, provided trade tensions do not escalate.
Webcast – Currency Intervention In China And Hong Kong (6min:05sec) – April 18, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Adam Wolfe discusses central bank currency intervention in China and Hong Kong.
Asia Ex-Japan – Politics Point To A Stronger Yuan, Weaker Ringgit – April 17, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
In recent months, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been guiding the yuan exchange rate higher and domestic interest rates lower, all in the context of financial market opening.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Reassuringly Boring, For Now – April 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
When global trade is expanding, accidents rarely occur for EM currencies as a whole.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More To Go – March 29, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Heightened geopolitical tensions and stock-specific woes in the tech sector will keep equity markets weak in the near run.
Webcast – U.S.-China Trade Tensions: War Or Peace? (7min:28sec) – March 28, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The U.S. administration’s plan to slap tariffs on $60 bn worth of Chinese imports has raised concerns that the squabble could escalate into a global trade war.
Asia Ex-Japan – Is A Trade War Brewing? – March 27, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
Proposed U.S. tariffs on about US$60 bn worth of Chinese imports roiled Asian markets at the end of last week.
Equities – EM Small Caps: Time To Fly? – March 15, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Small capitalization stocks are often treated as the highest-beta segment of an equity universe, where outsized returns are possible during positive economic periods, at the price of high volatility and large drawdowns during bear markets.
Emerging Markets Equities Report – Back Up The Truck – March 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The case for overweighting EM in a global equity portfolio is straightforward: global trade is expanding on a sustainable basis.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Equities: Time To Go Underweight Or Overweight? – February 23, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The correction in risk assets will probably persist in the near run.
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – Will Stocks Be A Dog This Year? – February 15, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors may be forgiven for thinking the Year of the Dog came early…. Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Transitioning To A New Era – February 9, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk asset prices will remain under pressure until bond yields stabilize. The latter… Continue
India – Budget: Don’t Worry, Be Happy – February 8, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are treating last week’s budget announcement as yet another policy mistake by… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Clearer Skies, Time To Harvest Yield – February 1, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports We have been anticipating short-term turbulence for EM local-currency debt (EMLCD), followed by… Continue
Charts – A Weak U.S. Dollar Will Benefit Non-U.S. Equity Markets – January 25, 2018
· Equities ·
The recent divergence between the performance of the U.S. dollar and regional equity market relative returns in common currency terms is unsustainable.
Charts – China: A Slowdown Looms, Not A Crisis – January 23, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
China’s economy is likely to decelerate in the first half of 2018 due to monetary tightening, harder local government budget constraints, and a wobbly housing market.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 18, 2018
· Themes ·
This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Asia Ex-Japan – Will Technology’s Tailwinds Fade? – January 18, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Asia ex-Japan equities had a very good 2017, in large part due to the technology sector.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – A Favorable Tide, But Some Pesky Headwinds -January 11, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We recommend investors maintain overweights on EM currencies which are supported by the global trade revival
Asset Allocation Strategy –Risk Assessment: It’s Still Too Soon To Bail – January 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic and policy outlook remains positive for risk assets and we remain moderately overweight equities versus government bonds in a multi-asset portfolio.
Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Favors Non-U.S. – December 21, 2017
Equities ·
The recent bout of U.S. market outperformance will gradually fade, with more cyclical markets including EM Asia, the euro area and Japan better positioned to take advantage of the late-stage economic expansion.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.
Asia Ex-Japan – On The Road Again — Asia Trip Perspectives – November 29, 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Last week included a trip of client visits in Singapore and Hong Kong, the major theme of which was the outlook for capital markets in 2018 and appropriate asset allocation.
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – November 21, 2017
· Equities ·
It has been a great year for Asia Ex-Japan equities. Global growth accelerated, and global exports outpaced GDP.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 17, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A near-run correction in risk assets is underway. We do not expect it to progress into a significant setback and thus are not de-risking our moderately pro-growth stance.
Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – November 9, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Once the twin air pockets of a U.S. dollar rally and a Chinese… Continue
Webcast – It Will Be More Difficult Next Year (8min:07sec) – November 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 8 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – November 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports It’s been a banner year for investors. Global equity returns are 21% year-to-date… Continue
Webcast – The Disinflation Tailwind Has Passed (9min:23sec) – November 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for the major asset classes and examines the key economic, policy and valuations drivers.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – November 1, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes ·
This is the third MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 27, 2017
Asset Class Reports · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Both the ECB and the BoC confirmed that they remain keen to stay behind the economic curve, which is pro-growth and bullish for the global stock/bond ratio.
Long-Term Returns Report – October 26, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income ·
The coming decade will see an end to an era of steadily declining discount rates and the associated boost to asset valuations. Prospective returns for balanced portfolios will be middling by historical standards, accompanied by lower Sharpe ratios.
China – Private Sector: Crisis Or Opportunity? – October 24, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
China’s industrial-led rebound has greatly benefitted its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), while private industrial firms appear to have languished in terms of output and profits.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 13, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We examine the main cyclical risk factors and conclude that they are still not flashing warning signs.
China – Ignore Politics, Focus On Housing – October 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
The Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Party Congress kicks off next week, which will result in a massive turnover of the country’s top political and military leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 29, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shifting trends in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could create near-term capital market turbulence.
Webcast – Politics Vs Economics And Regional Equity Positioning (7min:58sec) – September 27, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest regional equity outlook and recommendations
China – Reserve Currency Status: Can China Fake It ‘til It Makes It? – September 26, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. dollar weakness, an improving balance of payments and a solid domestic economy have all provided support for the Chinese yuan this year.
Regional Equities (Quarterly) – September 21, 2017
· Equities ·
There has been a significant divergence in relative performance of regional equities recently because of U.S. dollar weakness.
Equities – Hong Kong Equities: Property Market Risks Loom Large – September 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Equities ·
Hong Kong property prices have been inflated by extremely low interest rates well beyond any reasonable valuation.
Emerging Market Equities Report – September, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
EM equities have outperformed recently: should global multi-asset investors join the party?
Webcast – Geopolitical Jitters: De-Risking Not Yet Warranted (6min:36sec) – September 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses asset allocation and investment strategy amidst the challenging political/policy backdrop.
Asset Allocation Report – September 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
An essentially quiet summer season (Northern Hemisphere) in capital markets has given way to renewed
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – August 31, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Whenever the U.S. dollar index weakens, the relative performance of any non-dollar asset… Continue
Webcast – Asia Ex-Japan: Can Export Growth Trump Geopolitical Tensions? (5min:11sec) – August 16, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). August 16 after 2:00… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – August 15, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Tensions with North Korea have weighed on global risk assets and Asian Ex-Japan… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – August 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Many investors fear that the bull market in risk assets is in increasing… Continue
China – A Softer, Gentler Chinese Housing Bust – July 27, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s housing market has held up somewhat better than expected, but the national… Continue
China – China’s Political Transition: “Core” Strength Or Institutional Resilience? – July 18, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Sometime later this year, most of China’s top political leaders will be replaced… Continue
China – China’s Technology Sector Has Gone BAT-ty – July 6, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese technology stocks have massively outperformed the country benchmark this year. The FANG… Continue
Webcast – The Equity Market Rotation Lure (8min:06sec) – June 21, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 21 after… Continue
Regional Equities (Quarterly) – June 15, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports We remain constructive about the outlook for global equities, expecting prices to rise… Continue
China – A Tale Of Two Chinese Bond Markets: Are Foreign Investors Too Complacent? – June 6, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s domestic corporate bond yields and spreads have increased in recent months as… Continue
Webcast – The Outlook For EM Equity And Debt (6min:30sec) – May 17, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite ReportsClick here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 17 after 2:00 pm… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – May 16, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – India: Structural Reforms And Roadblocks – April 18, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports India’s structural reform agenda remains on track, and should benefit from Prime Minister… Continue
Equities – 10 Questions For Asia Ex-Japan Investors – March 28, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports 1. Will the global economic rebound continue? 2. Will the yuan be devalued… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – February 16, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – November 22, 2016
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – September 6, 2016
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Asia ex-Japan equities should benefit from a modest expansion of global exports over… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – July 19, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Temporarily hold Asia Ex-Japan at an underweight position within a global equity portfolio… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – March 3, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – December 1, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – The Return Of “Chindia”? – October 7, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports India’s long-term growth is likely to be driven by investment and manufacturing, while… Continue