MacroResearchBoard

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Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Firming Growth And Rate Cuts Will Sustain Outperformance – June 1, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Firming growth (in the context of disinflation), especially in EM Asia, will improve credit risk of EM local currency debt (EMLCD) relative to DM peers.

Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Come For The Growth, Stay For The Rate Cuts – May 25, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

The case for holding EM currencies is primarily predicated on their association with stronger growth and fewer risks to growth than their DM peers.

Webcast – China: Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – (7min:10sec) – May 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.

Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – May 5, 2023
Absolute Return · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.

Webinar – Investing In EM: China? India? Or Neither? – (59min:17sec) – April 26, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Webinar featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing the outlook for EM investing.

Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.

Emerging Market Equities – It’s All About China, For Now – April 13, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

In a world of constrained expectations and earnings counter-currents, EM stocks offer decent prospects for outperformance.

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Resilient And Poised To Outperform – March 23, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The return outlook for both EM local currency (EMLCD) and U.S. dollar debt may appear unappealing at first glance given how tight spreads are against their U.S. counterparts.

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Better Growth Supports EM Currency Appreciation – March 16, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

We continue to see good odds of improving global growth conditions this year, with a reopening in China now gaining momentum…

Emerging Market Equities – More Than Just A China Bounce? – February 28, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

With China’s earnings momentum already improving and a material economic rebound under way this year, Chinese stocks are well set to outperform their EM and DM peers.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.

Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.

Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
 · Equities · 

There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…

Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.

Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.

Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.

Korea – Export Recovery Papers The Cracks, For Now – January 26, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Korea’s equity market massively underperformed emerging market peers (EM), leaving valuations at extremely attractive levels…

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Goldilocks Favors EM Debt – January 19, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

For an investor whose only insight into the EM debt asset class is a chart plotting the spread between EM debt and U.S. Treasury bonds…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.