Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020


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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.



 

Equities – Global Bank Stocks: Cheap, But… – October 9, 2020
Equities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.



 

Webcast – Equity Rotation: Stronger Global Growth Is The Necessary Condition – (10min:12sec) – September 30, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for performance across the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning in a global equity portfolio.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Reflationary Bridge And The Bond Market – September 25, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. and G7 government bond yields have traded in an extremely tight range of late as bond volatility has been crushed by global central banks through highly accommodative policies and strong forward guidance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.



 

Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
 · Equities · 

A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.



 

Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio. 



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.



 

Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.



 

Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Select High-Yield Plays Will Shine – August 25, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Local currency-denominated EM debt (EMLCD) offers attractive yields in a world where investors are challenged by generally richly-valued stocks and bonds, and low expected returns in the developed markets.



 

Emerging Markets – Liquidity Provides Latitude For Experimental Policies – August 21, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.



 

Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.



 

Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.



 

Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
 · Themes · 

Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.