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Today's report, "A Low Bar For Positive Growth Surprises" is available at www.mrbpartners.com/my_mrb.
Highlights include: |
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The recent rebound in risk asset prices reflects an unwinding of earlier recession fears, but scepticism about the economic outlook remains widespread and investor positioning is still cautious on balance.
Yet the combination of subdued expectations and some diminishing headwinds implies that global growth could surprise on the upside. Markets are decidedly not priced for positive economic surprises, with government bonds especially vulnerable. |
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Global economic conditions should gradually improve in the year ahead, warranting a mildly pro-cyclical investment stance. |
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G7 government bonds are vulnerable to positive economic surprises, given depressed Fed rate and inflation expectations. |
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Equities will likely consolidate in the near term, but should trend higher on a 6-12 month horizon on the back of corporate earnings upgrades. |
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The bounce in commodity prices will give way to range trading. We are sellers, not buyers of gold. |
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| This Week's Reports |
| U.S. Equity Sectors Report |
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Maintain a moderately pro-growth stance favoring technology and financial stocks. |
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| Global Fixed Income Report |
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The risk of a long duration position outweighs the potential reward. |
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| Macro Research Board
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