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Video – Secular Stagnation: A Disastrous Assumption – (16min:15sec) – April 16, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
One of the most damaging assumptions ever made by policymakers, especially the Federal Reserve, as well as the broader investment community, was that the world fell into Secular Stagnation in the 2010s.
Webcast – The Toppling Of Economic Dominos – (8min:26sec) – March 30, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar provides a contrast between the current macro environment compared to that of the 2010s.
Global Fixed Income – Snapping Weak Links – March 29, 2023
· Fixed Income ·
Volatility in the U.S. and G7 government bond markets has surged again in response to U.S. and European banking system strains.
Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
Theme – U.S. Treasurys: Rhyming (Inversely) With The 1980s – December 8, 2022
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
It is common for investor expectations and market pricing to persistently lag economic fundamentals at secular turning points.
Webcast – Investment Implications Of Interest Rate Normalization – (11min:00sec) – November 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar outlines frameworks for understanding the process of interest rate normalization…
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
Theme – The Fallout From Interest Rate Normalization – October 4, 2022
· Themes ·
Bond bulls have been capitulating, causing government bond yields to spike across the developed world.
Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
· Themes ·
The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Webcast – The Great Bond Market Capitulation – (7min:48sec) – April 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses this year’s dramatic selloff in government bonds and provides a roadmap of what to expect heading forward.
Theme – Government Bonds: This Is What Capitulation Looks Like (Phase 1) – April 21, 2022
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
The violent selloff in U.S. and G7 government bonds reflects the beginning of a major capitulation by both central banks and bond bulls
Theme – Central Banks Start Thinking About Thinking – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports After massively lagging the economic recovery and inflation, central banks across the developed… Continue
Theme – COVID Exiting: Service Sector Resurgence Ahead – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Omicron wave is fading rapidly, and a sense of relief and renewed… Continue
Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue
Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue
Webinar – The Inflation Debate: Where The Consensus Has It Wrong – (78min:25sec) – August 18, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Strategist Phillip Colmar and U.S. Strategist Prajakta Bhide.
Theme – Disputing Misplaced Narratives (Part II) – August 17, 2021
· Themes ·
Part I of this MRB Theme Report (published July 27) contrasted our view with some of the prevailing narratives related to the U.S. and global growth outlook.
Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.
Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
· Themes ·
This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return ·
The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.
Webcast – The Drivers Of Inflation Provide A Warning – (9min:49sec) – June 9, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar Phillip Colmar examines the forces that will drive consumer price inflation over the course of this cycle.
Theme – An Inflation Problem Is Brewing – June 3, 2021
· Themes ·
The Fed and other major central banks are determined to lag well behind any upturn in consumer price inflation, and fixed-income investors are reluctant to revise up their depressed longer-term views on economic growth and inflation.
Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.
Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
Theme – Secular Equity Bull Market: Is There More Upside? – October 21, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
Most investment strategy is focused on the cyclical trend in asset prices (i.e. the swings within a single economic or business cycle).
U.S. Election – What To Expect From A Biden Or Trump Victory – October 13, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The U.S. elections on November 3 could bring significant changes to fiscal policy and the economy in the next four years, with important implications for capital markets.
Policy – U.S. Economy: The Danger Of Premature Austerity – September 17, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The aftermath of the Great Recession highlights the dangers of enacting premature fiscal austerity.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle: Did Policymakers Avoid A Final Flush? – August 20, 2020
· Themes ·
MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks as it provides a starting point when building a multi-year roadmap, and helps investors look for major inflection points.
Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
· Themes ·
Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.
Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.
Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
· Themes ·
The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.
U.S. – Labor Market: Examining The Damage, And What’s Next – May 19, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Research Reports ·
Dislocations to economic activity caused by COVID-19 have caused an unprecedented deterioration in the U.S. labor market, with standard measures like the unemployment rate understating the true extent of the damage.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Theme – The Great Halt Of 2020 – April 23, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report compares the current economic fallout with the previous and concludes that another Great Recession is very unlikely.
Equities – A Century Of Bear Bottoms – April 2, 2020
· Equities · Themes ·
Every equity bear market has unique attributes, including the root cause of the earnings downturn and the required policy response.
COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.
Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part V): Growth Stocks – February 11, 2020
· Equities · Themes ·
This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias, and focuses on growth stocks.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part IV): Regional Housing & Related Equities – January 17, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part III): Commodities & Global Luxury – December 10, 2019
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias and focuses on… Continue
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part II): Yield Plays – December 3, 2019
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.
U.S. – Elections 2020: Impeachment And The Markets – October 8, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
It is unclear how the House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry into President Trump will evolve, although it is ramping up rapidly.
Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook
Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.
Policy – U.S. Politics 2020: Democratic Disruptors Or Stabilizers? – July 18, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Despite President Trump’s low approval ratings, the Democrats face an uphill battle in winning the presidential election in 2020 given the healthy economy and the power of incumbency.
Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.
Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
· Themes ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.
Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:07sec) – June 5, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide highlights from the MRB Annual Overview Of Key Macro And Investment Themes as well as a “roadmap” for investors to navigate the current global landscape.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – May 23, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Monetary Reflation In A Deleveraging World (12min:30sec) – April 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The mechanics and impact of monetary policy have been heavily debated from the onset of the Great Recession and has heated up again since the Fed whipsawed investors with a massive pivot.
Theme – Monetary Reflation Simplified: Mapping The Limitations & Risks – April 2, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
In this report we explain a simplified framework and use the U.S. and euro area as examples to answer several frequently asked questions as well as address a few common misconceptions.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
Webcast – Stylized Investment Cycle: Navigating The Endgame (11min:42sec) – December 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Global equity markets are in turmoil, as investors are rapidly downgrading the growth expectations and starting to panic about the potential for a global recession.
Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle: Extended Topping Out Process – December 4, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since we introduced it to clients earlier this decade.
Webcast – The End Of Cheap Money: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (8min:57sec) – October 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). October 31 after… Continue
Theme – The Great Monetary Unwind: Who Will Join? – October 25, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
There has been a massive shift in global imbalances over the past decade as U.S. and euro area households (the previous weak links) restored their balance sheets
Webcast – Bond Yields, Choke Points & Relief Valves (12min:26sec) – October 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Financial markets have been shaken as investors have rapidly adjusted their expectations to reflect a higher bond yield environment.
Theme – Competitive Currency Devaluation Is Ending – October 23, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Competitive currency devaluation was an important theme in the years following the Great Recession when two major global growth engines needed reflating, namely the U.S. and euro area.
Theme – The Casualties Of Interest Rate Normalization – October 22, 2018
Absolute Return · · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
There has been a massive shift in global imbalances over the past decade. The U.S. and euro area household sectors have delevered, making them less sensitive to rising interest rates and bond yields.
Webcast – Global Inflation: Gradual Upturn, Massive Ramifications (9min:55sec) – October 3, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
An examination of the forces that drive global consumer price inflation reveals a slow but profound shift in the longer-term underlying pressures over the past decade.
Theme – A Secular Upshift In Inflation (Part II) – October 2, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
This is the concluding part of a two-part MRB Theme Report analyzing the underlying shift in the trend of global consumer price inflation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.
Fixed Income – Yield Curve: Misread & Risks Skewed To Steepening – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return · Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Webcast – Euro Area: Cyclical Vs Structural Outlook (13min:54sec) – June 13, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 13 after… Continue
Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part II): Structurally Flawed – June 11, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series which provides a broader perspective of the cyclical and structural crosscurrents facing the euro area.
Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part I): Cyclically Resilient – June 7, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Several headwinds have hit the euro area in recent months, making investors question if the steady improvements recorded last year have given way to something more ominous.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.
Theme – The Trade And Reserve Currency Systems At Risk – May 15, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
The global trading system that is a holdover from the 1944 Bretton Woods conference has passed its sell-by date.
Foreign Exchange Report – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in the near run.
Theme – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in… Continue
Theme Report – The Next Global Recession: Watching The Canaries – May 2, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The world economy has transitioned from subdued and desynchronized growth with disinflation and emergency policy settings, to a faster paced expansion with gradually building price pressures, and a slow but steady unwinding of hyper-accommodative monetary settings.
Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…
Theme Report – The New Macro Roadmap – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The “new normal” or “secular stagnation” thesis was the wrong framework, and just… Continue
Theme – Isolationism: Sadism Or Masochism? – March 8, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The threat of a U.S.-led trade war has been lurking since President Trump was elected and has now moved to the forefront of investor worries as the first shot may soon be fired.
U.S. Equities – Higher Volatility: It’s The Fundamentals – February 13, 2018
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Volatility has reared its ugly head in the past two weeks, suddenly bolting… Continue
Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:56sec) – January 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). January 31 after… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 30, 2018
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 18, 2018
· Themes ·
This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.
Charts – The Bearish Case For Gold – November 28, 2017
· Commodities ·
MRB has been negative on gold since early this decade, regularly warning of the vulnerabilities and advising clients to limit exposure.
Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part IV): Timing The End Of The Bull Market – November 10, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
This is the fourth and final MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – November 1, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes ·
This is the third MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part II): Asset Class Positioning – October 25, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
This is the second MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle, which is one of our most popular thematic frameworks. Part I outlined our framework and where financial markets currently are within the investment cycle.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part II): The Next Wave – October 19, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series, updating our submerging world theme. Part I outlined the ramifications resulting from the mushrooming and subsequent erosion of this segment of the global economy over the past decade.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – October 11, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks over the years.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.
Theme – Market Impact If The U.S. Dollar Melts – September 14, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon. In the current environment of solid growth and easy monetary policy, it will take some combination of economically-damaging political turmoil, decisively higher bond yields and/or a material breakdown in the U.S. dollar to threaten equities.
Policy – Can Trump Tweet A Bear Market? – August 17, 2017
· Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Market participants normally desire a solid economy, pro-growth policies, stability and predictability. President… Continue
Theme – Yield Curve: Don’t Fear The Flattener, Fear The Steepener – July 20, 2017
· Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors have grown accustomed to viewing a flattening yield curve as a bad… Continue
Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – June 22, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports An increased number of central banks are feeling pressure to capitulate from an… Continue
Theme – U.S. Economy: From “Subdued” To More “Normal” – June 22, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economy has been closely following the path of countries that have… Continue
Webcast – Ending Extreme Reflation: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (7min:04sec) – May 31, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 31 after 2:00… Continue
Policy – Staggered Exit To The Great Monetary Experiment: Gauging Central Bank Pressures – May 30, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Fed is well behind the growth curve and will continue its gradual… Continue
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part III): Regional Equities & Real Estate – April 6, 2017
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Several regional real estate markets did not suffer inthe Great Recession and have… Continue
Webcast – Candidates For A Mania (12min:57sec) – April 5, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). April 5 after 2:00… Continue
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part II): Yield Plays & Alternatives – April 4, 2017
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Commodity plays were the center of investor exuberance last cycle, but have now… Continue
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – March 30, 2017
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Many aspects of financial bubbles are unpredictable, especially the degree of speculation. However,… Continue
Webcast – MRB’s Key Themes: A Roadmap For Investors (8min:05sec) – January 11, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 11 after 2:00… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 10, 2017
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Another sustained upleg in the global stock/bond ratio is underway. While the investment… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 5, 2017
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The forces driving political instability across the developed world remain in place, at… Continue
Theme – De-Globalization: So Far, It’s Mostly Benign – December 13, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The apparent decline in globalization (so far) is due to weak growth and… Continue
Theme – Investing Around Trumponomics – November 17, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports A Trump presidency creates more political, economic and financial market uncertainty over the… Continue
Theme – Forced De-Globalization (Part II): Blame Technology Not Trade – November 10, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global trade, particularly with China, has taken an unfair amount of the blame… Continue
Theme – Forced De-Globalization (Part I): Benefits And Costs Of Trade – November 8, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Increased global trade has created tremendous benefits in recent decades, in terms of… Continue
Theme – The Long-Term Rate Outlook (Part III): Future Aftershocks Vs Potential Stabilizers – October 27, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The MRB Aftershock Theory highlights that several additional shocks from the Great Recession… Continue
Theme – The Long-Term Rate Outlook (Part II): Navigating The Fed’s “Crisis Of Faith” – October 20, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Fed has been challenged by the atypical response of the economy to… Continue
Theme – The Long-Term Rate Outlook (Part I): Secular Stagnation Versus MRB’s “Aftershock” Theory – October 18, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The theoretical and empirical basis for the secularstagnation narrative is weak. MRB’s aftershock… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – October 6, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle Update: A Fairly Unique Cycle – October 5, 2016
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The evolution of investor risk-taking has been extremely slow in recent years. This… Continue
Theme – A Perfect Storm For Political Instability (Part II) – September 28, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Prolonged periods of extreme wealth accumulation lead to a growing number of affluent… Continue
Theme – A Perfect Storm For Political Instability (Part I) – September 27, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Great Recession and subsequent years of subdued economic and income growth have… Continue
Theme – Yield Convergence And Risk Assets – September 8, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Yields in high-quality government bond markets have converged at very subdued levels. While… Continue
Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – August 2, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Central banks will keep overall conditions very accommodative in all developed economies, although… Continue
Theme – The Brexit Dominos – July 7, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.K. pound and domestic risk assets have been beaten up, but the… Continue
Theme – The Brexit Aftermath: Impact On Global Growth And Strategy – June 29, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Brexit is a credible threat to the global economy. The U.K. economy on… Continue
Theme – Are India And Indonesia The Next China? – June 23, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports With structural reforms and appropriate macro policy, Indian growth could rise to about… Continue
Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part III): Regional Assessment – June 15, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Aggressive U.S. policy reflation has been necessary to offset contractionary forces and encourage… Continue
Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part II): Breaking The Liquidity Trap – June 13, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The major central banks are still primarily focused on reflating by depressing interest… Continue
Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part I): Understanding Monetary Policy – June 9, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Monetary policy remains an essential part of any reflationary strategy, despite being somewhat… Continue
Theme – How China’s Economic Transition Is Reshaping The World – May 5, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s economy has started to transition toward using stuff more efficiently (what we… Continue
Theme – Replay Of 1998-2000 Update – April 7, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have benefited from an easing in recession fears, but further gains… Continue
Theme – Replay of 1998-2000 – February 11, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The selloff in risk assets has intensified and exhibits many characteristics similar to… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 7, 2016
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Another (potentially final) sustained upleg in the global/stock to bond ratio should unfold… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 5, 2016
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The structural shift in economic/political power and financial wealth from the advanced economies… Continue
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle Update: Another Upleg Or Start Of The Bear? – November 19, 2015
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The equity bull market remains intact and will be supported by easing global… Continue
Theme – Commodity Dominos: Update On The Fallout – November 3, 2015
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Although the decline in crude oil prices lagged other commodities, this was the… Continue
Theme – A Tale Of Two Chinas: Making Sense Of The Economic Transition – October 13, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese growth will continue to slow and defaults will rise over the next… Continue
Theme – Global Trade Cycle: Structurally Impaired? – October 1, 2015
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global trade is not structurally impaired. However, it has lost some powerful secular… Continue
Theme – Desynchronized Cycle: Taking The Pulse Of Regional Growth – September 17, 2015
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global economy has softened materially since the start of the year, fueling… Continue
Theme – Fed Rate Cycle: What To Expect? – September 10, 2015
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The unprecedented divergence between a subdued but sustained U.S. economic expansion and depressed… Continue
Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – July 16, 2015
Absolute Return · · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Policy trends will increasingly diverge across the globe over the next year, although… Continue
Theme – Euro Area: Capitalizing On The Boom/Bust Cycle – June 11, 2015
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Major imbalances in the euro area and the lack of policy flexibility, makes… Continue
Theme – China Scenario Analysis: A Soft Landing Is On Track – June 9, 2015
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese growth is stabilizing around 7% this year. The property market is slowly… Continue
Theme – European Monetary Union: Designed To Fail? – May 26, 2015
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Creating the European Monetary Union without a fiscal union was a major policy… Continue
Theme – Don’t Fear All Kinds Of Deflation – May 5, 2015
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Worries about the potential for CPI deflation are overstated. Ascertaining the driving forces… Continue
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle Update: Phase 5 Upleg Underway – April 9, 2015
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Another sustained upleg in the global stock/bond ratio has begun. We expect a… Continue
Theme – Commodity Fallout: Mapping The Indirect Dominos (Part III) – February 17, 2015
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Commodity prices have fallen below the point of “maximum reflation” for the global… Continue
Theme – The Market Consequences Of A Global “Crisis Of Faith” – February 10, 2015
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Many investors have become cynical about the potential for the world economy to… Continue
Theme – Commodity Fallout: Mapping The Related Dominos (Part II) – February 3, 2015
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Many commodity-based economies are littered with imbalances, which are likely to come home… Continue
Theme – Commodity Fallout: Mapping The Direct Dominos (Part I) – January 27, 2015
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports MRB’s longstanding expectation for a supply-induced commodity bear market is well underway, making… Continue
Theme – Catch The Next Wave In Global Trade – January 6, 2015
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economic recovery is durable and will lead to a pickup in… Continue
Theme – Monitoring Global Private Debt: A Theme For 2015 And Beyond – December 23, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global regulators are making progress at mapping both the asset and liability sides… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – December 9, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global stock/bond ratio has begun another sustained upleg. Stay long equities, particularly… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – December 4, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The structural shift in economic/political power and financial wealth from overly-indebted advanced economies… Continue
Theme – Commodity Exporters: Finding The Weakest Links And The Survivors – December 2, 2014
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Some EM commodity producers have secular growth potential that outweighs the many headwinds… Continue
Theme – Profiting From A Broken Central Banking Model (Part II) – November 13, 2014
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports There are currently a number of policy distortions, resulting from inappropriate central bank… Continue
Theme – Profiting From A Broken Central Banking Model (Part I) – November 13, 2014
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Central banking must evolve in order to effectively manage modern economies. The Debt… Continue
Theme – The Return Of “Chindia”? – October 7, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports India’s long-term growth is likely to be driven by investment and manufacturing, while… Continue
Theme – Positioning For A Fed Tightening Cycle – September 18, 2014
· Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economic recovery is becoming self-reinforcing and no longer warrants near zero… Continue
Theme – Macro Themes & Manias (Part III): Regional Equities & Property – August 27, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The equity and real estate bubbles in countries dependent on commodity exports will… Continue
Theme – Macro Themes & Manias (Part II): Yield Plays & Alternatives – August 26, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Commodity plays were the center of investor exuberance last cycle and are now… Continue
Theme – Macro Themes & Manias (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – August 19, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Many aspects of financial bubbles are unpredictable, especially the degree of speculation. However,… Continue
Theme – Phases Of A Capex And M&A Cycle: Where Are We? – July 10, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Economic and policy related anxiety has made businesses very hesitant to ramp up… Continue
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle Update – June 12, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The bull market in the stock/bond ratio is transitioning towards a sustained upleg…. Continue
Theme – Global LeaderShift (Part II): Implications & Investment Strategy – May 1, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global economy will gradually strengthen over the next year. Nevertheless, growth will… Continue
Theme – Global LeaderShift (Part I): Framework & Timing – April 29, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The shift in economic, financial and political leadership to the emerging world from… Continue
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – February 6, 2014
· Asset Allocation · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Stay overweight pro-cyclical regional equity markets that are heavily weighted in manufacturing, technology… Continue
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part II): Optimizing Asset Selection – February 4, 2014
· Asset Allocation · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are in the midst of a material correction, but the cyclical… Continue
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part I): Where Are We & How To Position? – January 28, 2014
· Asset Allocation · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The macro and policy backdrop is very different than in the past, but… Continue
Theme – Global Luxury (Part II): Risks & Potential Fallout – January 14, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors should trim exposure to global luxury investments and start selectively adding short… Continue
Theme – Global Luxury (Part I): Inflating A Bubble – January 7, 2014
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports There is a strong case that the global luxury complex is in a… Continue
Theme – China Financials: Where The Reformist Rubber Hits The Road – December 10, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Shanghai Free Trade Zone experiment marks the beginning of the end of… Continue
Theme – U.S. Profit Margins: Still Too Soon To Worry – December 3, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. profit margins should once again remain resilient in 2014. Cost control and… Continue
Theme – Peak Price, Not Peak Oil – November 26, 2013
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Oil is expensive by a variety of measures, which is a constraint on… Continue
Theme – Where To Position Within U.S. Consumer Staples – November 19, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. consumer staples stocks are poised to underperform as economic growth improves and… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies: Stay With Commodity Importers – November 14, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each country section (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Long-Term Return Projections: An Era Of Low Returns Looms – November 12, 2013
· Asset Allocation · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Balanced portfolios of stocks, bonds, commodities and cash will produce low real returns… Continue
Theme – Gold: Sub-$1000/oz Ahead – November 5, 2013
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Gold prices are likely to plunge below US$1000/oz over the next couple years… Continue
Theme – The U.S. ROE Cycle: Risks & Opportunities – October 31, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports ROE is a useful guide to track changes in a sector’s profitability over… Continue
Theme – The U.S. Fiscal Position: Just The Facts, Please – October 24, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. federal budget deficit and overall debt levels do not pose a… Continue
Theme – Emerging Market Equities: Secular & Cyclical Reality Check – October 15, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors should stay underweight EM equities in the near term, but the cyclical… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Themes (Part II) – October 1, 2013
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Great Migration will persist as investors become more convinced in the durability… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Themes (Part I) – September 24, 2013
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The structural shift in economic/political power and financial wealth from highly indebted advanced… Continue
Theme – U.S. Equity Sector Positioning: Beyond Fed Tapering – September 17, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports We recommend a moderately pro-cyclical equity sector stance in the U.S., favoring mid-cycle… Continue
Theme – Euro Area Equities: Time To Take The Plunge? – September 3, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports We are upgrading euro area equities to overweight in a global equity portfolio… Continue
Theme – Tracking The U.S. Treasury Bear Market – August 6, 2013
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The underlying uptrend in yields should be relatively gentle in the coming years,… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies: Prefer Commodity Importers – August 1, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each country section (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Japanese Equity Sectors: How To Play The Next Upleg – July 23, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The BoJ is pursuing aggressive monetary policies, which are weakening the yen and… Continue
Theme – How To Position In EM US$ Sovereign Debt – July 16, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Add to Favorite Reports Stay maximum overweight EM U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign debt in global portfolios. We expect… Continue
Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – July 11, 2013
Absolute Return · · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports No central bank faces immediate pressure to tighten. Regardless, most will be hesitant… Continue
Theme – U.S. Consumers: Spending Within Their Means – July 2, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The outlook for U.S. consumption is moderately positive: real growth of 3% or… Continue
Theme – Unwinding The Great Reflation: Gauging Relative Central Bank Pressures – June 27, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The world is experiencing a deflationary shock, thus no central bank faces imminent… Continue
Theme – China’s Credit Crunch: Tough Love Or Policy Error? – June 26, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports We remain constructive on Chinese risk assets as the current credit crunch will… Continue
Theme – Banking On U.S. Financial Stocks – June 18, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Upgrade financials to overweight from neutral within the context of a U.S. equity… Continue
Theme – Is There Too Much Chinese Debt? – June 11, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Debt accumulation has been too rapid, and must slow down. While China is… Continue
Theme – Long-Term Returns Update: A Good Return Will Be Hard To Find – May 21, 2013
· Asset Allocation · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors should expect low real returns by historical standards on balanced portfolios in… Continue
Theme – “Saudi America”: The New Sultans Of Swing? – May 14, 2013
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Oil prices have a natural ceiling and floor over the medium term. Technological… Continue
Theme – U.S. Housing Recovery Plays: How Much Upside Is Left? – May 9, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. housing recovery is poised to continue on the back of favorable… Continue
Theme – Macro Themes & Manias (Part II) – May 8, 2013
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are still predominately focused on global imbalances and downside risks, but opportunities… Continue
Theme – U.S. Housing: Solid Foundations – May 7, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The MRB House Price Model continues to signal solid gains ahead. Home Builders… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies: Paid To Wait For Growth – May 2, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each country section (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Macro Themes & Manias (Part I) – April 30, 2013
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Many aspects of financial bubbles are unpredictable, especially the degree of speculation. However,… Continue
Theme – Currency Wars & Extreme Policies – April 25, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Stiff deleveraging headwinds in a large portion of the global economy have left… Continue
Theme – Global Technology: Superior Growth At Bargain Prices – April 23, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Technology earnings are pro-cyclical, and hence are poised to benefit from an expected… Continue
Theme – U.K. Inflation: Less Than Meets The Eye – April 16, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.K. inflation is lower and less entrenched than many investors believe. Underlying inflation… Continue
Theme – Assessing Prospects For The Global Capital Goods Industry – April 2, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global capital goods industry will be a prime beneficiary of the looming… Continue
Theme – This Is Not 1994 – March 27, 2013
· Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Fed will remain extremely transparent and try to limit interest rate volatility… Continue
Theme – EM Inflation: Temporarily Constrained – March 26, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports A benign food price environment implies that overall EM price inflation will remain… Continue
Theme – Assessing Inflation & Deflation Tail Risks – March 19, 2013
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Substantial imbalances make the G7 economies prone to deflation and vulnerable to future… Continue
Theme – Currencies & Equity Positioning – March 12, 2013
· Equities · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. dollar will strengthen versus the euro and yen on a 6-12… Continue
Theme – Can The European Monetary Union Be Salvaged? – February 27, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The ECB has taken the mandatory steps to halt the fallout associated with… Continue
Theme – Emerging Market Corporate Earnings: Solid & Sustainable – February 26, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Emerging market companies generate earnings consistent with the superior economic growth of the… Continue
Theme – U.S. Business Investment: Back On Track – February 12, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. business investment is showing signs of reviving and a solid rebound looms;… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies To Outperform: A Shopping List – February 7, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports A recovering global trade cycle implies that the pressure to competitively devalue in… Continue
Theme – Global Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Running Out Of Time – February 5, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Further significant outperformance of global consumer discretionary stocks is unlikely in the current… Continue
Theme – Japanese Equities: Cyclical Tailwinds, Structural Headwinds – January 22, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Stay neutral on Japan in global equity portfolios, but there is potential for… Continue
Theme – Global Banks: Assessing Regional Opportunities – January 8, 2013
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Within the global bank universe, overweight emerging market and U.S. banks. Stronger credit… Continue
Theme – Could The World Follow Japan Into Deflation? – December 11, 2012
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Much more aggressive policy and major reforms are needed to revive the Japanese… Continue
Theme – Sovereign Debt Crises: Where Will The Next Shoe Drop? – November 27, 2012
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Sovereign debt strains in the periphery euro area will persist. The Japanese and… Continue
Theme – Global Inflation: Are We Headed Toward An Argentina Outcome? – November 20, 2012
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Argentina’s economic history highlights how inflationary pressures can build over time, albeit only… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Themes – October 30, 2012
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Economic power and financial wealth will continue to shift from the submerging world… Continue
Theme – Long-Term Return Projections: A Dose Of Reality Required – October 23, 2012
· Asset Allocation · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors need to lower their long-term return expectations. A balanced portfolio of equities,… Continue
Theme – U.S. Election & Equity Sectors: Policy & Fiscal Realities – October 16, 2012
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports President Obama and Governor Romney have sharply different policy positions on taxes, spending,… Continue
Theme – End Of The Commodity Boom (Part II) – October 2, 2012
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The commodity boom has acted as a disinflationary drag for the aggregate global… Continue
Theme – End Of The Commodity Boom (Part I) – September 25, 2012
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports There have been several powerful and extended bull markets over the past two… Continue
Theme – Oil: Uncertain Demand Now, Uncertain Supply Later – September 11, 2012
· Commodities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Emerging market oil demand will likely grow at a steady 3% per annum… Continue
Theme – Dividends: In Search Of Safety & Growth – July 24, 2012
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Dividends will contribute the dominant share of total equity market returns in the… Continue
Theme – U.S. Retail Investor Behavior: Still A Contrary Indicator? – July 10, 2012
· Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The cult of equities ended in the early-2000s and has been replaced by… Continue
Theme – EM Consumption LeaderShift (Part II): The Tiger Is Ready To Roar Again – July 3, 2012
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Recent declines in food and oil prices are massive positives for EM consumption…. Continue
Theme – Global LeaderShift: EM Consumption (Part I) – June 26, 2012
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s high savings and investment rates imply that it is underconsuming relative to… Continue
Theme – Euro Area Policy Checklist Update – June 15, 2012
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Political backsliding this spring caused the euro area Reflationary Bridge to break down… Continue
Theme – Gauging Relative Central Bank Pressures – May 29, 2012
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports None of the developed world central banks have intentions to tighten policy. However,… Continue
Theme – Global LeaderShift: Evaluating The Reflationary Bridge – May 15, 2012
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Policymakers in the submerging world are trying to provide a Reflationary Bridge to… Continue
Theme – Global LeaderShift (Part II) – March 20, 2012
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Structural headwinds in the submerging world will dampen economic growth relative to historical… Continue
Theme – Global LeaderShift (Part I) – March 13, 2012
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The shift in economic, financial and political leadership from the submerging world to… Continue
Theme – Macro Themes & Manias (Part II) – January 17, 2012
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Industrialization of emerging Asia is a major long-term investment theme. This has already… Continue
Theme – Macro Themes & Manias (Part I) – January 10, 2012
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Many aspects of financial bubbles are unpredictable, especially the degree of speculation. However,… Continue
Theme – The U.S. Economy: Recession Ahead? – September 20, 2011
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The economy should avoid a recession given the resilience of leading economic and… Continue
Theme – Theme Overview: Navigating The Investment Landscape – September 13, 2011
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Economic power and financial wealth will continue to shift from the developed world… Continue
Theme – Liquidity, Capital Flows & Growth Redistribution – August 9, 2011
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The lag between monetary policy and economic growth has become much longer as… Continue
Theme – Emerging Market Inflation: Will The BRICs Trigger A Hard Landing? – February 22, 2011
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports EM overheating concerns are justified, but are restricted to the BRICs, Turkey and… Continue
Theme – The Submerging World: Risks & Opportunities – February 8, 2011
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Nearly half of the global economy is at risk of joining the “Submerging… Continue
Theme – Emerging Market Tipping Point: Into The New World Order (Part II) – December 21, 2010
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports We introduce a framework for making investment choices within the EM world that… Continue
Theme – Emerging Market Tipping Point: Into The New World Order (Part I) – December 7, 2010
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The world economy has already passed its “tipping point” where investors can no… Continue
Theme – Euro Area: Betting On Persistent Divergences – November 23, 2010
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The massive differences within the euro area mean that conditions will remain too… Continue
Theme – The U.S. Economy: Structural Headwinds Mean A Prolonged Sub-Par Recovery – November 9, 2010
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The MRB U.S. Economic Headwind Index warns that the economy will be vulnerable… Continue
Theme – The Inflation/Deflation Debate – November 2, 2010
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The macro backdrop is littered with imbalances that make the G7 economy prone… Continue
Theme – Goldilocks Is Dead: Profiting In An Unbalanced World – September 24, 2010
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global economy is littered with imbalances that will take years to resolve…. Continue
Theme – The Next Investment Bubble: Now It’s The Emerging World’s Turn – September 17, 2010
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Next Investment Bubble: Now It’s The Emerging World’s Turn The U.S. and… Continue