2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022



2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…


Economy – U.S. Consumption: Will Exceed Expectations, Again – December 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Amid high inflation, tighter financial conditions, and concerns over an impending economic slowdown, U.S. consumer spending has remained fairly resilient this year.


Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.


Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.


Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;


Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…


Charts – U.S. Labor Market: A Gradual Slowdown – November 15, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. labor market momentum is cooling alongside the unwinding of monetary policy, but the labor market is still historically tight.


Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.


Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.


Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.


Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.


Policy – U.S. Fed: Smaller Hikes, But For Longer – November 3, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued a fourth consecutive 75 bps rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting but signaled a step-down in the pace of rate increases at upcoming policy meetings.


China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.


Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…


Policy – U.S: Inflation Will Complicate A Fed Pivot – October 25, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Persistent upside surprises in core CPI inflation through Q3 have fueled a debate on whether an outsize lagged rise in rent inflation is exaggerating inflation’s strength.


Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.


Webcast – Elevated Inflation Has Made Central Banks Blindly Hawkish – (5min:00sec) – October 18, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, we discuss monetary policy based on last week’s MRB Research Highlight, that “tighter” monetary policy is still required in the developed world.


Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.


Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.


Brazil – Defying Gravity – October 10, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazilian assets rallied after last week’s general election as the worst-case scenario for financial markets, in which former President Lula secures a first-round victory, was avoided. Therefore, the favorable relative growth backdrop which has been driving outperformance will remain intact.


China – Baby Steps To Evolving COVID-Zero – October 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

It may still only be a baby step, and by global standards it is a barely perceptible one.


Policy – U.S. Fed: Speed Kills – October 5, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed’s plan to outrun inflation by continuing aggressive rate hikes in the future implies that U.S. (and global) recession odds have risen, and risks to global financial stability have mounted.


Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.


Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – September 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Although a recession over the 6-12 months has not been our base-case scenario, the odds of this outcome are increasing and will continue to climb if the rise in interest rate expectations persists unabated.


Policy – The Fed: Honesty Is The Best Policy – September 23, 2022
Economics & Policy · 

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Policy – U.S. Fed: Peak Hawkishness, Or More To Come? – September 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued another 75 bps rate hike yesterday and signaled further large increases for this year’s remaining policy meetings.


Theme – When Will The (Recession) Wolf Arrive? – September 21, 2022
 · Themes · 

The wolf eventually arrived in the fable of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”.


Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.


Policy – U.S. CPI: No Time To Rest – September 14, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The August CPI report showed renewed strength in services inflation, and no respite from rising goods prices


Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.