economy-policy


 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Hope Versus Reality – May 17, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. inflation is proving stubborn, and holding well above the Fed’s 2% target.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Fed’s Dovish Bias Keeps Fueling Risk-On – May 16, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global financial markets remain dominated by swings in Fed rate expectations.



 

Economy – U.S. Consumption: Don’t Fear The End Of Excess Savings – May 16, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Despite the strength of U.S. consumption over the past year, analysts continue to raise doubts about the outlook, based on the increased cost of borrowing, and the apparent depletion of households’ pandemic-period excess savings.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Resilience, Rotation And Divergences – May 10, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is slowly improving, led by the still-strong U.S. Although the DM weak-link economies have slowed, they are not yet signaling undue stress.



 

China – Stocks Rally Just As Earnings Fade – May 9, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

It is rare for the momentum of stock prices and of forward earnings to move in opposite directions, but the current rally in Chinese stocks appears to be led by domestic retail investors…



 

Webcast – The Economy, Not The Fed Will Drive Markets – (13min:02sec) – May 7, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Bank On Fed Rate Cuts – May 3, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Swings in expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to drive global capital market performance.



 

Policy – Fed: Inflation Reins-In The Easing Bias – May 2, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Recent firm U.S. inflation reports have reined-in the Fed’s easing bias, with the Fed now less confident that inflation will make steady progress toward its 2% goal in the months ahead.



 

Absolute Return – Capitalizing On G7 Central Bank Missteps And Divergences – May 2, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

Many investors and strategists focus far too much attention on reading the proverbial tea leaves of central banks (particularly the Federal Reserve) to decipher how policymakers intend to shift interest rates.



 

Politics – U.S. Election 2024: Checking In On The Swing State Economies – April 26, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

This year’s U.S. presidential election will be unusual in many ways, with the outcome driven by the extreme polarization of the American electorate…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Buckle Up: The Backdrop Will Be Challenging – April 26, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Remain underweight bonds within a multi-asset portfolio. Monetary conditions are not yet restrictive, as is evident by firming global growth.



 

Economy – U.S. Q1 GDP: Once Again, Sounder Than It Seemed – April 25, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. real GDP grew slower than expected in Q1 but the solid underlying performance of consumption and investment highlights that the economic trajectory retains a solid backbone.



 

Webcast – Sticky CPI Inflation Is Here To Stay – (7min:08sec) – April 25, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

This week’s Webcastis an extension of a charts report published early this month. The report examined the trends in CPI in the developed world (DM)…



 

Economy – U.S. Rents: Another Source Of Sticky Inflation – April 24, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Inflation doves were hoping that a steady step-down in U.S. CPI/PCE rental inflation this year would boost the optics of inflation coming under (the Fed’s) control.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Correction, But Not (Yet) A Bear Market – April 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk asset markets will remain under pressure until the Treasury market calms.



 

Policy – Memo To Central Banks: Mind The Output Gap – April 16, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The output gap is a straight-forward and powerful economic concept—is current GDP above or below potential GDP?



 

Video – Secular Stagnation: A Disastrous Assumption – (16min:15sec) – April 16, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

One of the most damaging assumptions ever made by policymakers, especially the Federal Reserve, as well as the broader investment community, was that the world fell into Secular Stagnation in the 2010s.



 

China – Earnings Are Lagging The Economy – April 11, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

In the face of near-universal bearishness among the chattering classes overseas about its economic prospects…



 

Economy – What’s Up With U.S. Inflation? – April 10, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

The pickup in U.S. consumer price inflation this year has put the Fed in an uncomfortable position given its guidance to cut the policy rate multiple times this year.



 

Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…



 

Charts – Assessing CPI Inflation In The Developed World – April 3, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report examines the trends in CPI in the developed world and introduces the MRB CPI Diffusion Indexes (CPIDIs) for each of the G10 economies.



 

Regional Equities – Market Broadening Will Continue – March 28, 2024
 · Equities · 

The latest dovish rhetoric from the Fed is a “green light” for risk taking and will support global equities in the near run, especially since global growth momentum is improving.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Long-Run Tailwind For Treasury Yields – March 28, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Signs of froth have emerged, but risk-on should persist until the next sustained rise in DM government bond yields develops, which we do not expect in the coming months.



 

Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Free Money Era Is Officially Over – March 22, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Further near-run upside is probable in risk asset markets.



 

Economy – China’s Merchandise Exports Are Recovering, Just As “Deflation” Disappears – March 22, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

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Policy – U.S. Fed: Still Keen To Ease – March 21, 2024
Economics & Policy · 

Despite a stronger growth and inflation outlook, the Fed stuck to its dovish bias at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, remaining firm on its signal to cut rates three times this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Rate-Cutting Window Closes Another Notch – March 15, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Ongoing U.S. economic strength and an improving global economic outlook warn against complacency on the inflation outlook.



 

China – CSI 300 Stocks Are Stirring – March 7, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Although the U.S. stock market continues to outperform all its foreign competitors, including China, this performance has been driven by the extraordinary gains of a handful of mega-cap stocks that carry significant valuation risk.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…



 

U.S. Economy – Key Indicators – February 27, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Bearish consensus growth expectations are finally catching up to a better economic reality, and the forward market has lowered its expectations for Fed rate cuts meaningfully, as we had expected.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – One Window Is Closing, Is Another Opening? – February 23, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed et al have set themselves up for yet another pivot. The hoped-for return of inflation to 2 percent is not going to occur.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticky Inflation: Is 4% The New 2%? – February 16, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed et al have set themselves up for yet another pivot. The hoped-for return of inflation to 2% is not going to occur.



 

Webcast – The Fed & U.S. Treasurys: Lessons From The 1980s – (10min:27sec) – February 14, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Phillip Colmar discusses one of our big picture themes.



 

China – Defibrillator Applied To Equities, Again – February 8, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese policymakers have once again applied the defibrillator to stock market sentiment.



 

Charts – U.S. Consumption: Healthy Balance Sheets Underscore Resilience – February 7, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. households have very healthy balance sheets, including sizable excess savings, a benign debt-to-income ratio, a historically low debt servicing burden and meaningful wealth generation since the pandemic.



 

Theme – U.S. Economy: “No Landing” Is Underway – February 7, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis month we are highlighting our research on the U.S. economy and one of… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…



 

Theme – The Fed & U.S. Treasurys: Mirroring The 1980s – February 1, 2024
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

In many ways, the bond market is now mirroring (inversely) the early- to mid-1980s, which has been one of our core fixed-income themes in recent years.



 

Webinar – U.S. Economy: Will It Stick The Landing? – (64min:57sec) – January 31, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Investors have a bit more faith in the U.S economic expansion this year than a year ago, encouraged by the prospect of policy rate cuts ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downgrade Alert(s) – January 26, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. economic conditions do not warrant lower policy rates, and such conditions are not likely to develop in 2024.



 

U.S. 2024 Election – Early Perspectives – January 26, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks Is At Risk – January 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The front-running of DM policy rate cuts has eased only slightly of late, and is still far too aggressive relative to the economic/inflation outlook. 



 

Economy – Will The U.S. Labor Market Loosen Ahead? – January 12, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · Research Reports · 

U.S. employment growth has cooled over the past year, albeit from historically elevated levels, and the labor market is still relatively tight.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Aggressive Rate-Cut Expectations Leave Most Markets Vulnerable – January 12, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth prospects were already modestly upbeat last autumn and have improved further due to much lower DM policy rate expectations and the sizable rebound in global financial markets.



 

China – Reform Chatter Fails To Inspire Investors (So Far) – January 11, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Two recent events have raised the prospect that Chinese policymakers might be inclined to bite the bullet on significant structural reform.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – 2024: More Pivots Ahead – December 22, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase is stretched and due for a pause. However, a return to risk-off is unlikely until bond yields resume rising, which is still some ways off.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Demand, Corporate Profitability, And Inflation Are All Resilient – December 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The deceleration in DM inflation will peter out with underlying inflation still well above central bank targets if the global economic expansion rolls on, as we expect.



 

Policy – U.S.: The New Fed Is Still The Old Fed – December 14, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Yesterday’s FOMC meeting marked a meaningful pivot in the Fed’s policy stance, as the Fed clearly signaled that it is considering easing the policy rate ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Learning Curve – December 8, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The aggressive front-running of the next rate-cutting cycle is working at cross purposes to monetary policy and will prolong the expansion, as signaled by the sharp flip from risk-off to risk-on in recent weeks.



 

2024 U.S. Economic Outlook – Continued Resilience – December 7, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

MRB’s U.S. economic outlook for 2023 panned out very well. As we had predicted a year ago…



 

2024 Asset Allocation Outlook – A Maturing Cycle, But The End Is Not Yet Nigh – December 1, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

A global or U.S. recession is not yet in the cards for 2024, although the lifespan of the economic expansion is inevitably shortening.



 

Webinar – EM ex-China Behind The Wheel, China In The Backseat – (59min:33sec) – November 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek addressed the outlook for EM assets in absolute and relative terms over the coming 6-12 months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.



 

U.S. Economy – Key Indicators – November 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Recent data show that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a decent pace, supporting our view that a U.S. recession remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.



 

Global Economy – Is Global Trade Reviving? – November 10, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

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China – Growth: Half-Full, Or Half-Empty? – November 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese household consumption is the new version of the analogy of the glass being half full or empty.



 

Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Stepping Aside Without Declaring It – November 2, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged for the second consecutive FOMC meeting yesterday.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…



 

Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.



 

Fixed Income – U.S.: Parsing The Upside In Treasury Yields – October 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The meaningful rise in U.S. long-term bond yields since April has been driven by both cyclical and noncyclical factors.



 

China – Recovery Steps Up A Notch – October 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

What will it take for foreign investors to shake off their bearishness on Chinese assets?



 

Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.



 

Charts – Are The Global Weak Links About To Snap? – October 4, 2023
Economics & Policy · Themes · 

We are highlighting a chartpack on global weak-link economies with household sector excesses, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K.



 

Mexico – Deglobalization And The Peso: Fact Versus Fiction – October 3, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Shifts in global supply chains have been one of the main characteristics of the current era of multipolarity and deglobalization.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: A “Higher For Longer” Reality Is Sinking In – September 21, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Yesterday’s FOMC meeting left the policy rate unchanged, but participants revised up their policy rate expectations for next year, and a few raised their expectations for the longer-run policy rate



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.



 

Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Canada – Housing: Sliding Down The Slippery Slope Of Hope – September 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

A massive Canadian housing bubble has been inflated in response to more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.



 

China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.



 

Economy – R-Starring The U.S. Economy – September 6, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The resilience of the U.S. economy to higher policy rates in this cycle has led some investors and policymakers to speculate that the economy’s neutral real policy rate, or “R-star” may have risen following the pandemic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.



 

Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.



 

Webcast – U.S.: Don’t Be Distracted By Core Inflation’s Current Descent – (6min:38sec) – August 23, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the prospects for U.S. inflation and highlights that while core inflation is descending, its underlying trend…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Beware The Current Complacency – August 17, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Core CPI has begun decelerating more visibly than in the first half of this year.



 

Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.



 

Webcast – Hopes Dashed By Lack Of A China Property Bailout – (5min:45sec) – August 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani ran through some recent developments in China which have triggered a material market reaction.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.



 

China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…



 

Global Fixed Income – Another Upwave In Bond Yields Is Inevitable – August 9, 2023
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

After a brief reprieve beginning late last year, bonds have faced further losses since May as economy bears were caught wrongfooted on calls for a recession.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.



 

Policy – Fed: Near A Hiking Halt On Inflation Optimism – July 27, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Yesterday’s widely anticipated Fed policy rate hike came with dovish policy communication from Fed chair Powell.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.



 

Economy – U.S.: Will Consumption Fizzle When Excess Savings Run Out? – July 19, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. households accumulated a large pool of excess savings over the pandemic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.



 

China – Undervalued And Unloved, But Undeniably Growing – July 13, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Second-quarter earnings results are about to start rolling in, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.



 

Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”



 

Economy – U.S.: Checking In On The Services Sector – July 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Prominent gauges of U.S. service sector business sentiment diverged meaningfully earlier this year.



 

Webinar – U.S. Economy: Still Defying Bearish Narratives – (72min:58sec) – July 5, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar, Prajakta Bhide discusses why MRB still thinks that the U.S. economy is likely to avoid a recession over the foreseeable future…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…



 

Webcast – China: Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – (7min:40sec) – June 21, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.



 

Policy – U.S.: The Fed Acknowledges Economic Resilience – June 15, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

As we expected, the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged at yesterday’s FOMC meeting.



 

China – Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – June 15, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.



 

Webcast – U.S.: Inflation Is Still Too High For The Fed’s Comfort – (8min:39sec) – June 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. inflation…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: The Underlying Trend Is Still Firm – June 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core inflation is descending very slowly from its pandemic-propelled peak.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Mixed Signals = Overweight On Cash – June 2, 2023
Asset Allocation · 

Markets are providing decidedly mixed signals about the economic outlook, highlighting investor uncertainty.



 

Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.



 

Webcast – U.S. Recession: Answers To Five FAQs – (9min:27sec) – May 24, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for the U.S. economy and addresses some of the questions that we have been frequently asked by clients regarding our non-consensus call that a recession is not imminent.



 

Economy – U.S: Data Continue Defying Bearish Narratives – May 23, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

We remain of the view that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession for the foreseeable future.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Isn’t Over – May 19, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist over the summer.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Late Cycle: Leaning Against The Consensus Yet Again – May 18, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The economic expansion has matured, and the investment cycle is now late.



 

Webcast – China: Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – (7min:10sec) – May 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.



 

Economy – Challenging The U.S. Recession View (Part II) – May 11, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Our view has been that we are in a mature phase of the U.S. and global economic expansion, but not yet at the onset of recession.



 

China – Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – May 11, 2023
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.



 

Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Economy – Challenging The U.S. Recession View (Part I) – May 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

There is no shortage of things to worry about and the potential for a U.S. recession is nontrivial.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: A Pause Is Just A Pause – May 4, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed hiked the policy rate by a quarter percentage point at yesterday’s FOMC meeting and signaled an upcoming pause in its tightening cycle.



 

Webcast – U.S.: A Sentiment Swing Is Skewing The Macro Story – (7min:12sec) – May 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses MRB’s “no-recession” call, highlighting the unusual shifts in recent U.S. macro data that may have skewed recession indicators in an excessively bearish direction.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.



 

Economy – U.S: Revisiting Recession Risks- April 27, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. economic prospects were perceived to take a meaningful hit following the spike in U.S. banking sector stress in March.



 

Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.



 

Economics & Policy – Contracting U.S. M2: Less To It Than Meets The Eye – April 21, 2023
Economics & Policy · 

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Policy – U.S. Fiscal Policy Outlook: Tough Choices Loom – April 20, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The federal budget is on an unsustainable path based on current law and mainstream expectations about the long-term economic outlook.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.



 

China – A “New” China: Growth Without Stimulus, Exports Or Housing – April 6, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

China’s reopening and economic recovery is finally observable in the hard economic data, rather than only from surveys.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Back To Pre-SVB Levels? – March 31, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain constructive on global economic prospects for the next 6-12 months, and do not expect much fallout from this month’s banking problems.



 

Webcast – The Toppling Of Economic Dominos – (8min:26sec) – March 30, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar provides a contrast between the current macro environment compared to that of the 2010s.



 

Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Positioning – March 30, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, but we expect the banking sector stresses to soon die down and for the global economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace.



 

Global Fixed Income – Snapping Weak Links – March 29, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

Volatility in the U.S. and G7 government bond markets has surged again in response to U.S. and European banking system strains.



 

Economy – U.S. Bank Outflows: Not That Alarming For The Economy – March 29, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report takes a closer look at flows out of U.S. banks and into money market funds in the aftermath of the heightened banking sector stress that followed from two prominent bank failures earlier this month.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: A Dovish Hike, But No Cuts In Sight – March 23, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed continued to tighten policy at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, using dovish forward policy guidance to address the recent developments in the U.S. banking sector.



 

Theme – Making Money During China’s Demographic Decline – March 21, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Themes · 

China’s official population count for 2022 was published in January and showed 9.6m births, outweighed by 10.4m deaths.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tip Of The Iceberg, Or Only A Brief Interruption? – March 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-off backdrop could persist in the near term, until banking fears start to subside.



 

Fed Policy – Juggling Mandates Will Not Lead To Rate Cuts This Year – March 17, 2023
Economics & Policy · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.



 

China – Surveys Show Recovery, Hard Data Will Follow – March 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

“Soft” data from surveys are showing China’s robust recovery is underway, but the usual seasonal distortions in hard data make it difficult to calibrate the implications for overall economic momentum for the time being.



 

Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: Premature Optimism – March 2, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing market activity dropped sharply alongside higher mortgage rates last year…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.



 

Webcast – Equity Dilemma: Stronger Economy Vs Higher Bond Yields – (10min:05sec) – February 22, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the major macro forces driving equities and bonds and narrows in on the current outlook for investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.



 

Policy – U.S. CPI: A Bit More Heat Than Meets The Eye – February 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Year-over-year core CPI inflation has eased and will continue to decline this year, but the January CPI report underscored that the road will be bumpy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.



 

China – Services Rebound, Broader Consumption Should Follow – February 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

The traditional travel boom during the Lunar New Year holiday period took place in January…



 

Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.



 

Policy – U.S.: The Market’s Had Enough, But The Fed’s Not Done – February 2, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued a smaller rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, setting the tone for terminating the ongoing phase of policy tightening in a few months.



 

Webinar – Our No-Recession, Non-Consensus U.S. View Explained – (68min:00sec) – January 31, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar, Prajakta Bhide discusses why the U.S. economy remains likely to avoid a recession over the next year…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.



 

Korea – Export Recovery Papers The Cracks, For Now – January 26, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Korea’s equity market massively underperformed emerging market peers (EM), leaving valuations at extremely attractive levels…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.



 

Policy – U.S. CPI: Easing Steadily, But Medium-Term Signals Remain Firm – January 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inflation is unwinding last year’s spike, driven by falling goods prices.



 

Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.



 

China – Re-Opening Is Palpable, If Not Yet Measurable – January 5, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

High frequency data and anecdotal evidence suggest that Chinese workers and consumers are shaking off the tsunami of infections arising from the sudden abandonment of the COVID-zero policy.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.



 

Webcast – The U.S. Economic Outlook For Next Year – (9min:17sec) – December 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. economy for the next year, highlighting the reasons why we think that a recession will likely be avoided.goalposts.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Global Economic Headwinds Easing – December 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some economic headwinds have recently eased, even as the major DM central banks have continued to hike their policy rates.



 

Fed Policy – December FOMC Meeting: Key Takeaways – December 16, 2022
Economics & Policy · 

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2023 U.S. Economic Outlook – Sticking To A No-Recession Call – December 15, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Following a meaningful slowdown in U.S. economic growth this year, the consensus is expecting a recession next year.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.



 

2023 China Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…



 

2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…



 

Economy – U.S. Consumption: Will Exceed Expectations, Again – December 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Amid high inflation, tighter financial conditions, and concerns over an impending economic slowdown, U.S. consumer spending has remained fairly resilient this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.



 

Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;



 

Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…



 

Charts – U.S. Labor Market: A Gradual Slowdown – November 15, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. labor market momentum is cooling alongside the unwinding of monetary policy, but the labor market is still historically tight.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.



 

Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Smaller Hikes, But For Longer – November 3, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued a fourth consecutive 75 bps rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting but signaled a step-down in the pace of rate increases at upcoming policy meetings.



 

China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…



 

Policy – U.S: Inflation Will Complicate A Fed Pivot – October 25, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Persistent upside surprises in core CPI inflation through Q3 have fueled a debate on whether an outsize lagged rise in rent inflation is exaggerating inflation’s strength.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.



 

Webcast – Elevated Inflation Has Made Central Banks Blindly Hawkish – (5min:00sec) – October 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, we discuss monetary policy based on last week’s MRB Research Highlight, that “tighter” monetary policy is still required in the developed world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.



 

Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.



 

Brazil – Defying Gravity – October 10, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazilian assets rallied after last week’s general election as the worst-case scenario for financial markets, in which former President Lula secures a first-round victory, was avoided. Therefore, the favorable relative growth backdrop which has been driving outperformance will remain intact.



 

China – Baby Steps To Evolving COVID-Zero – October 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

It may still only be a baby step, and by global standards it is a barely perceptible one.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Speed Kills – October 5, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed’s plan to outrun inflation by continuing aggressive rate hikes in the future implies that U.S. (and global) recession odds have risen, and risks to global financial stability have mounted.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – September 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Although a recession over the 6-12 months has not been our base-case scenario, the odds of this outcome are increasing and will continue to climb if the rise in interest rate expectations persists unabated.



 

Policy – The Fed: Honesty Is The Best Policy – September 23, 2022
Economics & Policy · 

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Policy – U.S. Fed: Peak Hawkishness, Or More To Come? – September 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued another 75 bps rate hike yesterday and signaled further large increases for this year’s remaining policy meetings.



 

Theme – When Will The (Recession) Wolf Arrive? – September 21, 2022
 · Themes · 

The wolf eventually arrived in the fable of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.



 

Policy – U.S. CPI: No Time To Rest – September 14, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The August CPI report showed renewed strength in services inflation, and no respite from rising goods prices



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.



 

Webcast – The Outlook For U.S. Home Prices – (7min:26sec) – September 8, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide highlights the weak performance of recent U.S. housing indicators and discusses the outlook for home prices for next year.



 

China – Pragmatic Policy In Hibernation – September 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 until 1992, famously said “no matter if it is a white cat or a black cat, so long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat”



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.



 

Economy – U.S. Housing Market: How Much Price Downside Ahead? – August 31, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. housing market has rapidly become the weakest-performing sector of the economy, with higher mortgage rates deterring demand meaningfully in recent months.



 

Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.



 

Economy – U.S.: Holding Up – August 25, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The forward market is pricing in Fed policy easing by the middle of next year which implicitly assumes that the U.S economy will be in a recession by that time.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy



 

Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
 · Themes · 

There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk-On For Now, But Only If Bonds Stay Calm – August 19, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A cooling in inflation after the spike in the past year will prolong the pause phase in government bond markets. This, in turn, will support equities and credit in the coming months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Payback Versus Catching Up – August 12, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

As expected, U.S. inflation has rolled over and will decelerate in the coming months, which will boost the prospects for extending the global economic expansion.



 

Policy – U.S. CPI: Is This A Real Break In The Trend? – August 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report discusses Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report, which saw monthly headline inflation flattening in July and core inflation easing back after a sharp sequential acceleration in Q2.



 

Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.



 

Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.



 

China – COVID-Zero Implies Continuing Economic Pain – August 4, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Prospects for a strong reopening recovery in China are evaporating in the face of the authorities’ obstinate attachment to a COVID-zero policy



 

Economy – U.S. Q2 GDP: Don’t Jump The Recession Gun – August 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Many analysts are interpreting the second consecutive contraction in quarterly real GDP in Q2 as a confirmation that a U.S. recession is underway.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Mixed Messages – July 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

“Pause #2” in the cyclical bond yield uptrend is well advanced, and further downside in yields from current levels should be limited.



 

Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
 · Themes · 

The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Awaiting A Break In Inflation – July 28, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy after yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which saw the Fed issue another 75 bps rate hike



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.



 

Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
 · Themes · 

The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.



 

Webcast – U.S. Recession 101 – (8min:10sec) – July 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the criteria that distinguish recessions from more moderate economic downturns



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.



 

Economy – U.S: Risks Rising, But Recession Forecast Is Premature – July 15, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Pessimism regarding the U.S. economic outlook remains elevated, with recession forecasts becoming the consensus



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession



 

China – When Will Reopening Lift Earnings? – July 7, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

With signs of economic reopening, foreign investors have been piling back into Chinese stocks in recent weeks, having rushed for the exits in prior months during the peak of lockdowns.



 

Roundtable – Will The U.S. Economy Land On Its Feet? – (68min:57sec) – June 29, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Roundtable, Prajakta Bhide discusses the likelihood of a U.S. recession over the next year



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets



 

Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks



 

Canada – Rising Interest Rates Threaten The Canadian Goose – June 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our latest views on the Canadian economy, particularly its interest rate sensitivity.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: A Self-Made Pickle – June 16, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy after yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year



 

Webcast – Chinese Lockdowns Creating Pent-up Demand – (8min:58sec) – June 15, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani examines the outlook for China’s economy and markets in the context of renewed lockdowns imposed on Beijing and Shanghai in recent days



 

Policy – U.S. CPI: Sticker Shock – June 13, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report discusses Friday’s U.S. CPI report which underscored persistently high inflationary pressures in the economy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.



 

China – The Stock Bounce Has Begun – June 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

A much-anticipated positive shift in sentiment towards Chinese stocks appears to have begun, supported by easier liquidity conditions



 

Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth



 

Webcast – Gauging The Risk Of A U.S. Recession – (9min:15sec) – June 2, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses prospects for the U.S. economy, in the context of rising worries that the economy is heading toward a recession.



 

Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.



 

South Africa – Rand Bonds: Will SARB End The Party? – May 31, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

South Africa is one of the exceptions among the major EM bond issuers: its inflation has been much more modest than most emerging and developed market counterparts



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.



 

Economy – Are Worries Of A Looming U.S. Recession Justified? – May 26, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. economic growth has cooled, partly due to base effects after a booming 2021, and partly due to high inflation, including the jump in energy prices this year.



 

Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets



 

Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.



 

Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.



 

Webcast – China: How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – (7min:47sec) – May 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for China’s economy and markets.



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: Cooling Demand, But Not Prices (Yet) – May 17, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing market activity will be an important gauge for whether the Fed’s policy normalization is reining-in aggregate demand as intended.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.



 

Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.



 

Policy – U.S.: The Fed Steps It Up, Hoping For A Break Later – May 5, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue



 

Webcast – The Great Bond Market Capitulation – (7min:48sec) – April 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses this year’s dramatic selloff in government bonds and provides a roadmap of what to expect heading forward.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.



 

Economy – Ambitious China Growth Target Is Attainable, Implies Continuing Stimulus – April 22, 2022
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

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Economy – U.S.: Checking In On Consumers – April 21, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Real retail sales eased for the second consecutive month in March, warranting a closer look at whether inflation is starting to meaningfully deter consumer demand.



 

Theme – Government Bonds: This Is What Capitulation Looks Like (Phase 1) – April 21, 2022
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The violent selloff in U.S. and G7 government bonds reflects the beginning of a major capitulation by both central banks and bond bulls



 

Economy – U.S. Unemployment Is NOT Flashing A Warning Sign For Stocks – April 19, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The level of U.S. unemployment is often overlooked as an investment timing tool and yet can provide significant value to investors



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.



 

Economy – Euro Area: Divergent Interest Rate Sensitivities – April 12, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

Euro area interest rate expectations are ratcheting higher as the ECB will unwind monetary accommodation to address the region’s elevated and rising inflation rate.



 

Economy – U.S Inflation: The Heat Is (Still) On – April 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inflation has not yet turned around from its post-pandemic surge.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.



 

Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Curve: What’s The Message, If Anything? – March 31, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has become a topic of high interest once again, now that it has become flat beyond 2 years, with segments of the curve mildly inverting.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Fed Plays Catch-Up – March 30, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The sell-off in the global fixed-income market has been severe over the past several months, particularly for U.S. Treasurys.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.



 

Regional Equities – Post-War Performance Shifts Lie Ahead – March 24, 2022
 · Equities · 

The war in Ukraine is a near-term wildcard, but our expectation of an ongoing global economic recovery…



 

Economy – U.S.: Key Indicators – March 23, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The narrowing U.S. 2/10 Treasury yield spread suggests that bond investors are concerned…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.



 

Emerging Markets – The Perfect Storm For Chinese Equities Will Pass – March 18, 2022
Emerging Markets · 

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Policy – U.S. Fed: Front Loaded Tightening Won’t Cut It – March 16, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Uncategorized · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following today’s FOMC meeting



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.



 

Policy – China Lays Out The Justification For More Stimulus – March 11, 2022
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

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Policy – ECB Rate Cycle: Still On Track – March 11, 2022
Economics & Policy · 

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Economy – U.S.: Will Higher Gasoline Prices Derail Consumption? – March 10, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The impact of higher gasoline prices on U.S. consumer spending and concludes that the direct damage should be limited given the economy’s underlying solid momentum.



 

Webcast – Looking Beyond The 0-1 Geopolitical Bet – (10min:42sec) – March 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and investment strategy for the next 6-12 months in the context of the Ukraine war.



 

Latam – Will Latam Win The Russia/Ukraine War? – March 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Russia/Ukraine war is undoubtedly a near-term headwind for Latin America’s financial assets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.



 

Economy – Assessing Total Inflation Risks In The Developed World – March 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The MRB Total Inflation Measure offers a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures within an economy by including other sources of inflationary/disinflationary pressures beyond consumer price inflation.



 

Russia – Becomes Uninvestable – March 1, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The sanctions announced in Europe on Saturday, including partial restrictions on Russia’s access to SWIFT and the freezing of the central bank’s (BoR) foreign assets will ultimately lead to Russian recession.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: The Fallout From Higher Mortgage Rates – February 24, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

With the Fed set to soon embark on its policy rate-hiking cycle, worries that higher borrowing costs will choke out the housing market have mounted, even though mortgage rates are still historically very low.



 

Roundtable – Russia/Ukraine And U.S. Elections: Navigating The Geopolitical Minefields – (67min:00sec) – February 23, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s Mehran Nakhjavani and Peter Perkins discussed two key geopolitical issues for global capital markets in this Roundtable, namely the Ukraine-Russia military threat and the upcoming U.S. mid-term elections.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Breaking From The Dollar Yoke – February 22, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Distorting To Reflective To Restrictive – February 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cyclically bearish on bonds, although yields could soon pause; conditions are becoming technically stretched and U.S. rate expectations have already ratcheted higher.



 

Webcast – COVID Fades: The Impact Of Reopening – (9min:03sec) – February 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses what the unwinding of the pandemic means for the global economy, policy, and investment strategy.



 

Economy – Gauging The U.S. Economy’s Interest Rate Tipping Point – February 15, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The unwinding of monetary accommodation by the Federal Reserve will have widespread and significant impacts on the U.S. economy and capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Tug Of War – February 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth will remain solid, as service sector activity will improve as economic restrictions are relaxed. Above-trend growth and rising underlying inflation will force policymakers to unwind the liquidity boom.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – End Of COVID And Free Money – February 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The two themes that will be crucial in shaping the global macro environment this year are the fading of COVID as a meaningful restraint on global mobilit



 

Webcast – The Ebbing Liquidity Wave – (9min:33sec) – February 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months highlight.



 

Theme – Central Banks Start Thinking About Thinking – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports After massively lagging the economic recovery and inflation, central banks across the developed… Continue



 

Theme – COVID Exiting: Service Sector Resurgence Ahead – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Omicron wave is fading rapidly, and a sense of relief and renewed… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange – Competitive Currency Appreciation Ahead – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: No Imminent Peak – February 3, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

U.S. annual core inflation is at a four-decade high, and inflation’s persistent sequential strength implies that a peak is not yet imminent.



 

Webcast – The ECB Will Follow The Fed’s Pivot – (9min:04sec) – February 1, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses the next big central bank surprise, namely a pivot from the ECB, which will have major ramifications across asset classes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.



 

Fed Policy – Quotes From Chairman Powell – January 28, 2022
Economics & Policy · 

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Roundtable – U.S. Economy: Looking Past The Speedbumps – (62min:00sec) – January 26, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Roundtable, Prajakta Bhide discussed the outlook for U.S. growth and inflation including the key upside and downside risks, and the likely course of monetary policy.



 

Euro Area – The Coming “Hawkish” Turn At The ECB – January 26, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

We expect the ECB will follow the Fed’s pivot later in 2022, and also begin the path to normalize policy thereafter.



 

Economy – U.S.: Beyond Omicron, Still Decent Growth Ahead – January 25, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report takes a close look at the prospects for U.S. growth, inflation, and Fed policy, beyond the near-term negative consequences of the Omicron wave.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – A Choppy Transition – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Last year was largely characterized by risk-on, fueled by extremely accommodative global monetary and fiscal policies, and a massive liquidity wave.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Follow The Leader, But Also Watch The Laggards – January 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic growth will be more resilient and stronger than last decade, given the more accommodative policy backdrop and fewer structural drags (the end of deleveraging and fiscal austerity in the U.S. and euro area).



 

Equities – The Risk Of An Unpredictable Fed – January 14, 2022
Equities · 

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Webcast – As Go Bonds, So Will Go Risk Assets – (8min:35sec) – January 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended global multi-asset positioning.



 

U.S. – Unanticipated Inflation: Lessons From The Past 40 Years – January 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. macro landscape has flipped over relative to 40 years ago in terms of price pressures and the entrenched biases in the financial community.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.



 

China – Don’t Fight The PBoC – January 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Monetary policies will continue to diverge between China and other major economies, which will have a number of investment implications over the next 12 months.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.



 

Economy – The Omicron Variant: How Big A Setback For U.S. Growth? – December 23, 2021
Economics & Policy · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part I) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

One of our core themes in 2021 has been that the global authorities have forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: This Pivot Is Just The First Step – December 16, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

Global Fixed Income – The 2022 Fixed Income Outlook: Implications Of The Fed’s “Hawkish” Pivot – December 14, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

The key theme for global fixed-income markets in 2022 will be the capitulation to a less “transitory” and more resilient inflation and growth environment.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Prolonging The Cycle – December 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run COVID-19 related headwinds will act to prolong the economic cycle, but seem unlikely to derail the recovery, based on current information.



 

Policy – Emergency Monetary Policy Is No Longer Required – December 8, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the central banks in the developed world, as well as supporting charts.



 

China – The Coming Consumption/Policy-Led Recovery – December 7, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

After an eventful year of widespread policy interventions that dragged growth from above-trend to its current below-trend pace, a modest policy stimulus is set to recalibrate China’s growth prospects in the months ahead.



 

U.S. Economy – Key Indicators – December 3, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. economic momentum is improving heading into 2022. Real consumption is powering ahead despite stronger inflation and the phasing-out of government income transfers



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.



 

Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.



 

Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: The Transitory Story Is Losing Traction – November 16, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inflation is showing no signs of reversing its post-pandemic surge.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets



 

Economy – How Much Is Transitory? – November 11, 2021
Economics & Policy · 

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Webcast – The Fed Is Finally Rethinking Inflation – (6min:17sec) – November 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. monetary policy in the context of this year’s sharp rise in U.S. inflation that has challenged the Fed’s dovish bias.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets



 

Policy – U.S. Inflation: The Fed Has Cornered Itself – November 4, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

China – The Rattle Of Regulatory Change Continues – November 4, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

2021 has been the year of regulatory change in China, starting with a forced deleveraging in the real estate sector, followed by a crackdown on very large internet-related stocks aimed at limiting monopolistic behavior, improving labor rights and protecting data privacy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Time To Focus More On Quality – October 28, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

It is relatively rare for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at the same time as Treasury yields rise



 

U.S. Economy – Supply-Side Curbs – October 26, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. economy has faced stronger and more persistent supply-side constraints this year than anticipated.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.



 

Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.



 

Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.



 

Webcast – U.S. Labor Market: Look Past The Delta Bump – (8min:04sec) – October 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for the U.S. labor market for the coming year, in the context of the significantly weaker-than-expected pace of hiring in September.



 

Global Fixed Income – Risks Are Stacked Against Bonds – October 12, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

G7 government bonds are still priced in line with the secular stagnation narrative from the 2010s and are out-of-sync with current macro trends.



 

U.S. Economy – Indicators To Watch – October 8, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Softer hiring in September underscored the Delta wave’s toll on the U.S. economy, while supply constraints curbed activity across several sectors in Q3.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.



 

Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.



 

Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.



 

U.S. – Fed Policy: A Step Closer To The Exit – September 23, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which saw the Fed update its policy rate guidance and lay the groundwork for announcing the tapering of its asset purchases in November.



 

U.S. – Economic Outlook: Speedbumps – September 21, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our U.S. economic outlook in the context of a delayed return to normalcy due to an ongoing wave of U.S. COVID-19 cases and extended supply-side frictions that have slowed economic momentum in Q3.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.



 

Euro Area – Inflation: Set To Pop Like The U.S. – September 14, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

Our latest research on the euro area reinforces our non-consensus view that global inflation is heading higher on a multi-year horizon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.



 

Webcast – Transitioning From Maximum Growth And Policy Thrust – (9min:37sec) – September 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the shifting macro and policy backdrop and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It Will Get Tougher From Here – September 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Two important shifts in the macro climate over the next 6-12 months point to lower investment returns and more painful corrections, which will challenge current trends in capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.



 

U.S. Economy – Worries About Fiscal Drag Are Misplaced – August 25, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Worries about a shift in the U.S. fiscal position from highly stimulative in 2020-2021 to a drag next year are misplaced.



 

U.S. Consumption: A Brief Setback, Or More Pernicious? – August 24, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Retail sales eased more than expected in July, adding to concerns that the economic recovery is losing steam, when it had been expected to benefit from the post-vaccination release of strong pent-up consumer demand.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative



 

Webinar – The Inflation Debate: Where The Consensus Has It Wrong – (78min:25sec) – August 18, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Strategist Phillip Colmar and U.S. Strategist Prajakta Bhide.



 

Theme – Disputing Misplaced Narratives (Part II) – August 17, 2021
 · Themes · 

Part I of this MRB Theme Report (published July 27) contrasted our view with some of the prevailing narratives related to the U.S. and global growth outlook.



 

U.S. Economy – CPI Inflation: Still Going Strong – August 11, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

CPI inflation rose more moderately in July than in prior months as an outsize surge in used car prices pared back, but the annual core inflation remained historically solid at 4.2%.



 

Webcast – U.S. Labor Market: Back To A Solid State – (7min:27sec) – August 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the renewed strength in the U.S. labor market recorded in July.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.



 

Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.



 

Economic Note – Q2 GDP: Sounder Than It Seemed – Economic Note – July 29, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. real GDP grew a bit slower than expected in Q2 but this does not imply that the economy is on a weaker-than-expected cyclical trajectory.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Euro Area – Economy: Reasons For Some Optimism – July 22, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investor expectations for the euro area have been depressed by a decade largely characterized by a disinflationary funk.



 

Webcast – U.S. Inflation: Drilling Through The Noise – (7min:49sec) – July 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide highlights the prospects for U.S. inflation, contextualizing inflation’s sustainable outlook with noisy incoming inflation data.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.



 

Policy – China’s RRR Cut: Much Less Than Meets The Eye – July 16, 2021
Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  



 

Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
 · Themes · 

This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Watch The Rising Underlying Trend – July 14, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With CPI inflation surprising sharply on the upside for the third consecutive month in June, the debate over whether the pickup in inflation could prove durable, as opposed to transitory (as the Fed believes), is likely to heat up further.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.



 

China – Back To Normal – July 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

While investors in the U.S. suffer bouts of anxiety over the first mutterings of a possible thought that the Fed may consider setting a date for the start of policy normalization, Chinese policymakers have already barged through the gates along this path



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.



 

U.S. Economy – Indicators To Watch -June 30, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With U.S. COVID-19 infections holding low and fiscal transfers providing continued support, the U.S. recovery gathered momentum in Q2, with real GDP likely growing by around 10% annualized.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.



 

Webcast – Fed Policy: A Step Back From “FAIT”? – (8min:21sec) – June 23, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the broad implications of the hawkish shift in the Fed’s policy stance at last week’s FOMC meeting.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed Policy: Reality Bites The Dot Plot – June 17, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy, in the context of yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which saw participants pulling the expected policy rate liftoff forward amid an increased confidence in the economic outlook and upward risks to inflation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return · 

The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Key Gaps Are Closing/Widening – June 11, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While uber-dovish monetary policies will remain supportive of risk asset markets, the widening gaps between nominal GDP growth and core inflation versus policy rates are unsustainable.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Focus On The Trend, Not The Noise – June 10, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core inflation was anticipated to pick up over Q2-Q3 as the economy reopened.



 

Webcast – The Drivers Of Inflation Provide A Warning – (9min:49sec) – June 9, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar Phillip Colmar examines the forces that will drive consumer price inflation over the course of this cycle.



 

China – The Recovery Phase Is Ending – June 8, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The post-pandemic phase of China’s economic rebound has been exceptionally strong, and current data suggests it is already in the early stages of ending.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.



 

Theme – An Inflation Problem Is Brewing – June 3, 2021
 · Themes · 

The Fed and other major central banks are determined to lag well behind any upturn in consumer price inflation, and fixed-income investors are reluctant to revise up their depressed longer-term views on economic growth and inflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.



 

Webcast – U.S. Housing: Another Supply-Side Problem – (8min:00sec) – May 26, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the latest round of data from the U.S. housing market which shows that a constrained supply of homes has started to eat into homebuying.



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: Heading For A Burnout? – May 21, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing market activity, which rose sharply in an otherwise bleak economic backdrop last year, may have gotten a little bit ahead of itself.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.



 

Economy – U.S. Labor Market: A Supply-Side Squeeze? – May 11, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

April’s surprisingly weak U.S. payroll report highlighted potential supply-side roadblocks as the economy moves past the COVID-19 crisis.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.



 

Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – As Good As It Gets – May 7, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The aggressive monetary and fiscal support of the past year helped bring forward and fortify the robust rebound in capital markets relative to underlying economic growth conditions.



 

China – Reawakened Consumers Underpin Growth – May 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China is growing at a robust, above-trend growth, with concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic slipping into the distant past.



 

Policy – U.S. Corporate, Personal And Capital Gains Taxes: It’s The Economy That Matters – May 4, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

President Biden’s proposed tax hikes, by themselves, are negative for risk assets, but the long-term relationship between income, capital gains and corporate tax rates and economic growth and equity market returns is mixed.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.



 

Roundtable – U.S. Economy: From A Crisis To Supercharged Growth – (70min:36sec) – April 29, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Roundtable, MRB’s U.S. Economy Strategist, Prajakta Bhide, discussed the outlook for the U.S. growth and inflation including the key upside and downside risks, and the likely course of monetary and fiscal policies.



 

Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.



 

Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue



 

Webcast – U.S. Economy: All Eyes On Inflation – (9min:25sec) – April 21, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. inflation and highlights the key price indicators to watch over the coming months.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Still Early To Spot The Upside, But… – April 20, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report takes a closer look at the recent performance of U.S. inflation indicators.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.



 

China – Capital Markets With Chinese Characteristics – April 8, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s economic momentum remains strong and is broadening, and offers powerful support for a solid global expansion in output and trade.



 

Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – How Long Will U.S. Dollar Resilience Last? – March 30, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains mildly positive on the back of stronger relative growth (boosted by massive fiscal spending) and still oversold conditions (except versus the euro).



 

U.S. Economy – Indicators To Watch – March 26, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With U.S. COVID-19 vaccinations accelerating and new infections well below January’s peak, economic activity has picked up faster than expected in Q1.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.



 

Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.



 

Economy & Policy – The Treacherous Path To U.K. Fiscal Sustainability – March 18, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.K. is experiencing the third major episode of rising public sector net debt over the past century, although the prior two occurred amidst and in the aftermath of world wars.



 

Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.



 

U.S. Policy – Fed: Tantrum Management – March 15, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy, in the context of rapidly improving U.S. economic prospects, a potential multi-year shift in the fiscal policy backdrop, and the maiden implementation of the Fed’s new policy reaction function.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.



 

Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.



 

China – Yuan Bonds Outperform As Policy “Normalizes” – March 3, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Chinese economy doesn’t need stimulus, and, in fact, fiscal retrenchment will gather pace this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing An Anchor – February 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in Treasury yields has spread abroad and has increased the odds of a correction in overbought risk asset markets.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Economy – Will The U.S. Fiscal Stimulus Overheat The Economy? – February 16, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report discusses the impact of the forthcoming round of fiscal stimulus, including the potential upside for growth and inflation, the risk of the economy overheating, and its contribution to the macro-optimism priced into risk assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.



 

Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.



 

China – Chinese Divergences – February 2, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese economic momentum is far above its trend growth rate, while its stock market booms, government bond yields and the currency edge higher and a central bank advisor dropped hints of policy normalization.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Free Money Forever – January 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity market risks have recently eased on the fundamental side, as Treasury yields have calmed, but worsened on the technical side, as speculative froth has erupted. A pause in augmenting favored positions is still warranted.



 

Policy – Another Year Of Hyper-Accommodative Monetary Policy – January 27, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the major developed market central banks, as well as supporting charts.



 

Economy – U.S.: Indicators To Watch – January 26, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. growth prospects have improved on the back of COVID-19 vaccine approvals and the increased odds for additional fiscal stimulus…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent stall in U.S. employment trends underscores the need for rapid vaccinations to clear the path to a self-reinforcing global economic expansion.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: The Near-Term Upside Will Fade, But… – January 15, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Cyclical U.S. growth prospects have improved on the back of COVID-19 vaccine approvals and the increased odds for additional fiscal stimulus.



 

Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.



 

China – Climbing The Wall Of Worry – January 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China continues to experience strong economic momentum, despite a stutter in December’s PMI surveys (which nevertheless remain firmly in expansionary territory).



 

Webcast – U.S. Economy: A Bridge To A Brighter Future – (6min:49sec) – January 5, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses MRB’s above-consensus U.S. economic outlook.



 

Economy – U.S. Economic Outlook: An Upside Surprise Awaits – December 22, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our U.S. economic outlook to account for recent progress on vaccinations against COVID-19, and the long-awaited forthcoming round of fiscal stimulus.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).



 

Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.



 

Economy – U.S.: A Restocking Boost Next Year – December 9, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inventories experienced a deep drawdown in the first half of this year, amid COVID-19 distortions to demand as well as production/supply chain disruptions.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.



 

China – What Could Interrupt China’s Rebound in 2021? – December 3, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese economic momentum is by far the strongest in the world, which supports strong global appetite for Chinese financial assets.



 

Economy – Will U.S. Consumption Soon Drop Off A Fiscal Cliff? – December 1, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

While recent progress on COVID-19 vaccines has lifted prospects for U.S. growth in the second half of 2021



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.



 

Policy – Global Monetary Policy Will Stay Very Accommodative – November 24, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The report is an annual study that compares the relative pressures facing the various central banks in the developed world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.



 

Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.



 

Webcast – U.S. Economy: The Impact Of The Election And A Potential Vaccine – (7min:43sec) – November 12, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outcome of the U.S. election and the latest medical breakthroughs against COVID-19, in the context of their implications for the U.S. economy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.



 

Economy – U.S.: Withstanding COVID-19’s Third Wave – November 6, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The third major U.S. COVID-19 outbreak has seen daily virus cases climbing to their highest level of the pandemic, with cases trending higher in most states.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.



 

China – Domestic Growth Trumps Intermittent Foreign Demand – November 4, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

China is the only major economy recording positive GDP growth this year, and its central bank is the only one signaling policy normalization ahead.



 

Webcast – U.S. Election: What Does It Mean For Markets? (6min:39sec) – November 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outcome and implications for capital markets of the U.S. elections.



 

Election 2020 – How Will The U.S. Election Shape Financial Sector Regulation? – November 2, 2020
 · Equities · 

Financial sector policy proposals have largely been absent from this year’s election campaign as debates have mostly focused on issues such as the pandemic



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.



 

Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.



 

Economy – U.S. Economic Outlook: Dealing With Uncertainty – October 22, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

After solid growth in Q3, the U.S. economy is at a crossroads; past fiscal stimulus has run out, even as COVID-19 cases are rising again, quelling hopes for a self-sustaining normalization of economic activity.



 

Theme – Secular Equity Bull Market: Is There More Upside? – October 21, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

Most investment strategy is focused on the cyclical trend in asset prices (i.e. the swings within a single economic or business cycle).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.



 

U.S. Election – What To Expect From A Biden Or Trump Victory – October 13, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The U.S. elections on November 3 could bring significant changes to fiscal policy and the economy in the next four years, with important implications for capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.



 

U.S. Equities – Trump Vs Biden: Where The Presidential Nominees Stand On Energy Policy – October 8, 2020
 · Equities · 

The upcoming election presents a stark contrast between Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s promise to overhaul the U.S. energy system to urgently deal with climate change



 

Webcast – U.S.: Tracking The U.S. Recovery – (8min:53sec) – October 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the U.S. economic outlook and highlights some key indicators for tracking the U.S. economic recovery.



 

China – Robust Recovery Offers Scant Global Comfort – October 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

The pace of China’s torrid post-Q1 economic rebound will ease off, but solid growth will be sustained thanks primarily to the robust service sector.



 

Webcast – Addressing President Trump’s Health, The Election And Implications For The Markets – (10min:26sec) – October 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this special update, Peter Perkins addresses some key questions about the impact of President Trump’s illness on the election and capital markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.



 

Economy – U.S.: Not Like Other Cycles – October 1, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Standard U.S. business cycle indicators have been less insightful in the current pandemic-driven downturn and subsequent rebound.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.



 

Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio. 



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: Can The Pandemic-Induced Buying Persist? – September 18, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing demand has risen robustly amid a very weak labor market, elevated economic uncertainty and a still-ongoing pandemic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.



 

Policy – U.S. Economy: The Danger Of Premature Austerity – September 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The aftermath of the Great Recession highlights the dangers of enacting premature fiscal austerity.



 

Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

China – Torrid Recovery Will Ease Off – September 8, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

China’s growth trajectory can be broken down into two components.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.



 

Economy – U.S. Consumption: Is Recent Strength Sustainable? – September 2, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

High-frequency data indicate that that U.S. consumption picked up in August, defying expectations for a moderation, given that Congress had allowed a key fiscal policy measure providing unemployment compensation to lapse in July.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.



 

Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.



 

Economy – What’s Up With U.S. Inflation? – August 18, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The COVID-19 crisis triggered a sharp decline in U.S. core inflation, but a noteworthy upswing in July hints that this cycle’s inflation downshift may have ended.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.



 

Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.



 

Webinar – U.S. 2020 Elections: A Lot Is At Stake For Markets – (72min:12sec) – August 12, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Elections always matter and this year’s will be no exception, as the outcome will have a major impact on the U.S. economy and capital markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”



 

Economy – U.S.: The Economic Indicators To Watch – August 5, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

With U.S. economic momentum chiefly predicated on the evolving COVID-19 pandemic, typical cyclical leading indicators remain less insightful than usual.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.



 

Fixed Income/Foreign Exchange – Second COVID-19 Wave Hits Australia – July 31, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Equities – Swedish Equities: Trade Will Deliver Earnings Beta – July 31, 2020
Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.



 

South Africa – Saved By The Fed, For Now – July 30, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

The IMF threw South Africa a lifeline this week and opened the door to other multilateral loans to deal with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.



 

China – Cyclical Recovery Is Real – July 22, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

It may have taken a few months to revive after the initial lockdown, but June data confirms that Chinese economic activity has recovered from its early-year swoon and is growing at, or slightly above, its trend rate.



 

Webcast – U.S.: A Cautious Medium-Term Growth Outlook – (6min:43sec) – July 21, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the implications of the resurgent COVID-19 epidemic on the U.S. economic outlook.



 

Economy – U.S.: The Fallout From The Second Wave – July 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investors are overly optimistic about the potential economic fallout of resurgent COVID-19 epidemic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.



 

Economy – Euro Area: Households Add Resilience To Economic Recovery – July 17, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.



 

Economy – U.S. Credit Risks And The Economy – July 14, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Strong policy support has dramatically reduced the risk of prolonged U.S. economic weakness, but there are still pockets of vulnerability.



 

Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.



 

Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.



 

Webcast – Taking A Closer Look At U.S. Money Growth – (7min:35sec) – July 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide takes a closer look at this year’s surge in U.S. money supply growth which has led to substantial speculation surrounding its implications for inflation and financial markets.



 

Policy – U.S. Money Supply Has Skyrocketed; Does It Matter? – June 30, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. money supply growth has climbed to an historically unprecedented level this year, led by the Fed’s large-scale policy intervention since March.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It All Comes Down To Employment And Job Security – June 19, 2020
 · Uncategorized · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A correction or churning phase for equities is probable in the near term, given the sharp rebound in prices this spring and likelihood that corporate profits will not be able to return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.



 

Economy – U.S.: Was The Jump In May Employment Illusory? – June 11, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Last week’s much stronger-than-expected U.S. payroll report for May triggered questions about potential distortions or even errors in the employment data.



 

Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.



 

Policy – U.S.: What’s Next For The Fed? – June 3, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

U.S. financial conditions have improved over the past several weeks, and economic activity is picking up following the gradual re-opening of many states. 



 

Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity Currencies Will Need To Get Cheaper – June 3, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report highlights why the recent rally in developed commodity-based currencies should prove temporary as underlying fundamentals in these economies remain weak.



 

Webcast – Canada: Will The Bubble Finally Burst? – (13min:26sec) – June 2, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest outlook on the Canadian economy and asset markets, with a focus on the potential for a bursting of the housing and credit bubbles.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Broadening Equity Rally, For Now – May 29, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The equity rally has spread beyond U.S. large-caps into lagging bourses and sectors.



 

Canada – On Thin Ice As It Heats Up – May 27, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our outlook on the Canadian economy and related investment strategy in response to the pandemic and related halt in activity.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.



 

COVID-19 – Mobility Data: Global Charts – May 21, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Google has provided access to its mobility data during the COVID-19 crisis. While only temporarily available, we felt it would be helpful to provide clients with a regularly-updated chartpack to assess how economic reopening is progressing.



 

Economy – Inflation Risk: Why The 1970s Is The Wrong Playbook – May 20, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The huge run-up in government debt accompanied by massive central bank bond purchases in response to the COVID-19 pandemic is rekindling fears in some circles of a return to the high inflation era last witnessed in the 1970s and early-1980s.



 

U.S. – Labor Market: Examining The Damage, And What’s Next – May 19, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Research Reports · 

Dislocations to economic activity caused by COVID-19 have caused an unprecedented deterioration in the U.S. labor market, with standard measures like the unemployment rate understating the true extent of the damage.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
 · Themes · 

This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.



 

Webcast – COVID-19 Across U.S. States: Reopening Too Soon? – (7min:17sec) – May 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The rate of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. has declined, and as unemployment continues to climb, U.S. states have faced mounting pressure to roll back distancing orders.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.



 

U.S. – COVID-19: Tracking The Progression Across The U.S. – April 30, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report provides an update on the progression of COVID-19 across all U.S. states.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.



 

Theme – The Great Halt Of 2020 – April 23, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report compares the current economic fallout with the previous and concludes that another Great Recession is very unlikely.



 

Webcast – U.S. Big Business Is Too Big To Fail – (10min:28sec) – April 22, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins compares the small and large business sectors and their importance to the U.S. economic outlook and need for policy support.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.



 

U.S. Economy – The Business Of America Is Big Business – April 16, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Large companies dominate the U.S. economy in terms of employment, wages & salaries, receipts, value added, assets and investment.



 

Webcast – U.S. Economy: Fiscal Policy Support – (8min:44sec) – April 15, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses some U.S. fiscal policy measures that will play a key role in limiting the long-lasting structural economic damage due to the COVID-19 pandemic.



 

Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.



 

U.S. Economy – Fiscal Policy To Cushion The Blow – April 7, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. economy is in the midst of an abrupt and severe contraction. At the same time, policymakers have rapidly provided broad monetary and fiscal policy support.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.



 

COVID-19 – Monitoring The Progress Of Countermeasures – March 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The world has become fixated on the rapid spread of the COVID-19 pandemic to Europe and the U.S., and the economic consequence of the necessary countermeasures.



 

U.S. – The Economic Indicators To Watch – March 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Typical U.S. leading economic indicators are less insightful in the context of the rapid collapse in economic activity brought on by the COVID-19 epidemic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.



 

Theme – Lessons From Previous Equity Bear Markets – March 19, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The speed of the current selloff in equities, credit and oil has been remarkable, with a massive wave of selling pressure as investors rushed for the exits or to buy portfolio insurance.



 

U.S. – A Unique “Sudden-Stop” Recession – March 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Research Reports · Themes · 

This report updates our views on the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the U.S. economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.



 

Equities – History Says Further Near-Term Risk, Longer-Term Reward – March 13, 2020
Equities · 

https://www.mrbpartners.com/build-mrbp/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Equities_History-Says-Further-Near-Term-Risk-Longer-Term-Reward-March-13-2020.pdf



 

Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.



 

Webcast – COVID-19 And Investment Strategy (10min:09sec) – March 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest take on COVID-19 and how it will impact investment strategy.



 

Policy – Fed Policy: The Costs And Benefits Of Hitting The Panic Button – March 3, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The turmoil in the financial markets over the past week, following signs of the broadening spread of the COVID-19 epidemic outside China, raised investors’ expectations for a swift, accommodative Fed policy response.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.



 

Global – COVID-19 Epidemic Update – February 28, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  



 

Politics – U.S. 2020 Election Update – February 28, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Will COVID-19 End The Cycle? – February 27, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The COVID-19 threat arrived at a point when equity markets had an air pocket after materially rerating over the past year and were overly optimistic about the global growth outlook.



 

LatAm – Bonds And Rates Will Outperform – February 27, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

LatAm’s investment landscape beyond the short term will be characterized by a modest recovery in global trade and supportive global liquidity, all of which are positive for financial assets in the region.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (19min:00sec) – February 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

. In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month, including the virus.



 

Euro Area – Gauging Euro Area Recession Risks – February 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report introduces the MRB Euro Area Recession Checklist Indicator (RCI), which is an economy-wide measure (incorporating 26 variables grouped into six broad categories) that is constructed based on the framework of the MRB U.S. Recession Checklist Indicator.



 

Japan – Consumption Tax Hangover – February 25, 2020
 · Equities · 

The sharp decline in GDP in Q4 overstates the weakness of the Japanese economy, with the impact of the October consumption tax poised to gradually fade.



 

U.S. – Inflation: Mind The (Closing) CPI/PCE Gap – February 21, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Although U.S. core CPI inflation ticked up on an annual basis last year, investors assigned greater importance to the fact that the core PCE inflation rate, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge, decelerated below the Fed’s 2% goal.



 

Emerging Markets – Policy Support Reinforces The China Rotation Play- February 21, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

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U.S. – Manufacturing: Limited Upside In The Near Term – February 14, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The ISM manufacturing index’s rise above 50 last month was seen as a positive sign for an eventual recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity, which downshifted meaningfully last year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.



 

Policy – Little Pressure On Monetary Policy This Year – February 6, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The challenge heading forward for policymakers will be for those markets facing housing and credit excesses that ultimately will limit, if not prevent, any monetary tightening.



 

Emerging Market Equities – Buy On (Viral) Dips, But Only Selectively – February 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

For the next several weeks, global investors may be mesmerized by the potential hit to global growth associated with China’s coronavirus epidemic.



 

Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.



 

China – The Wuhan Epidemic’s Growth Impact – January 30, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese economic momentum ended 2019 with a bang, and started 2020 showing above-trend growth, propelled by a sharp recovery in industrial output, exports and imports.



 

Webcast – U.S. Housing: A Firmer Foundation For Growth (7min:28sec) – January 29, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. housing.



 

U.S. – Can Housing Lengthen The U.S. Expansion? – January 28, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investors should play close attention to the ongoing pickup in U.S. housing activity, given that the sector’s performance has historically been the cornerstone of the U.S. business cycle.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part IV): Regional Housing & Related Equities – January 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue



 

Webcast – U.S. Inflation: Alive And Well, If You Scratch The Surface (9min:40sec) – January 15, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the prospects for U.S. inflation.



 

U.S. Economy – Inflation: The Uptrend Is In The Details – January 13, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The market view that U.S. core PCE inflation will remain below 2% indefinitely is misplaced.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Bust, No Boom – January 10, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).



 

Webcast – Geopolitically-Driven Digestion Phase (8min:20sec) – January 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for capital markets in 2020, including the implications of the latest geopolitical crisis on investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Great Year And A Great Decade: Can It Continue? – December 20, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to recommend a mildly pro-growth investment stance across most asset classes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Upbeat Global Hiring Plans: The Business Cycle Rolls On – December 13, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).



 

Policy – Fed: Another U-Turn Down The Road? – December 12, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at yesterday’s meeting, emphasizing that additional “insurance” easing is now unlikely, and that the policy rate will remain near its current accommodative level over the foreseeable future.



 

Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

U.S. – Labor Market: Still Some Life In It – December 9, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. hiring continues to show remarkable momentum, its recent strength contrasting with the continued slowdown in industrial activity and still-sour manufacturing sentiment.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Slow And Modest Upturn Lies Ahead – December 6, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

While global growth should gradually firm next year, it will be insufficient to warrant a decisive risk-on investment posture.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Consolidation Before More Upside? – November 29, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The resilience of the consumer sector bodes well for the U.S. economic outlook.



 

Webcast – Dividends For The Long Run (8min:24sec) – November 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins examines global dividends and their potential contribution to equity returns in the years ahead.



 

Equities – The Lure Of Dividends – November 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

Current dividend yields on equities are compelling compared with the extraordinarily low yields available on long-term government bonds.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Validation – November 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There are tentative signs of a trough in manufacturing activity, but follow-through will be critical to sustain the recent breakout in equities and the global stock/bond ratio.



 

U.S. – Economic Sentiment: What’s The Mood? – November 21, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report highlights key recent trends in sentiment/confidence of U.S. households and businesses.



 

Webcast – Divorcing The Fed’s Balance Sheet From Monetary Policy (8min:20sec) – November 20, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses why the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet expansion does not constitute another round of QE, as some analysts have mistakenly claimed.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – FOMO Versus A Challenging Earnings Outlook – November 15, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity should gradually improve in the coming year, but much strongergrowth is highly unlikely.



 

Policy – The Fed Buys More Treasurys, But QE Is Still Over – November 13, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The unwelcomed surge in overnight repo rates in late September that led the Fed to begin purchasing Treasury bills last month has been misinterpreted by some analysts as an effective resumption of QE.



 

Webcast – Taking The Pulse Of Monetary Policy (13min:26sec) – November 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar discuss the highlights from MRB’s latest in-depth research on pressures facing various central banks in the developed world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Worries Recede Further – November 8, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stability in manufacturing PMI surveys and the recent easing in trade tensions have spurred higher equity prices and bond yields.



 

Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.



 

Euro Area – Economy: Weak But Resilient – November 5, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our euro area economic outlook and focuses on two key topics that are crucial to the euro area, namely the global auto industry and the German labor market.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – No Recession, But Not Much Growth Ahead – November 1, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

We expect the economic expansion to continue, but there is little basis for concluding a robust rebound in activity and profits looms over the next year that would justify a decidedly pro-growth investment posture.



 

Policy – Gauging Relative Monetary Policy Pressures: It’s All About The Fed – October 31, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Monetary policy pressures in the developed world have diminished substantially this year due to trade-related uncertainty and global manufacturing weakness.



 

South Africa – Rand Bonds Will Shine, Despite Downgrade Worries – October 31, 2019
Emerging Markets · 

There’s been no shortage of negative headlines about Eskom’s bailout, its impact on South Africa’s public debt sustainability, and the potential downgrade to sub-investment-grade status.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Turn In Manufacturing – October 25, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Non-U.S. equities have perked up, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity will keep a lid on equity prices and bond yields.



 

Fixed Income – The Fed Will Deliver A Reluctant Rate Cut Next Week – October 25, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.



 

Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.



 

U.S. – Checking In On The Consumer – October 23, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. consumption, which comprises the bulk of aggregate domestic demand, has been solid on a trend basis this year, despite elevated policy uncertainty and global headwinds that have caused business investment and manufacturing activity to slow. 



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Relief, But Risks Remain – October 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global trade and manufacturing indicators are still generally weak, and the protectionist backdrop will continue to hold back the global economy.



 

U.S. Economy – Business Cycle Crosscurrents – October 17, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Persistently elevated policy uncertainty and weak ex-U.S. growth are dampening U.S. economic activity.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bending, But Not Yet Breaking – October 11, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Trade policies and heightened domestic economic tensions continue to erode global economic sentiment, although not yet by enough to undermine the expansion.



 

Emerging Markets Equities – The Tech Tide Turns, Will The Rest Follow? – October 10, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The rule of thumb for EM allocations in a global equity portfolio has been to look to global trade momentum as the key strategy signal. The current cycle is unique in this regard.



 

Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.



 

Canada – On Borrowed Time – October 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The increasing imbalances and building vulnerabilities of the Canadian economy have been a regular theme in our research since the commodity Supercycle crested in 2013.



 

U.S. – Elections 2020: Impeachment And The Markets – October 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

It is unclear how the House Democrats’ impeachment inquiry into President Trump will evolve, although it is ramping up rapidly.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.



 

U.S. – Housing Returns To Boosting Growth – October 1, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing demand has improved meaningfully on a year-over-year basis following a sharp decline in U.S. mortgage rates since the beginning of 2019.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Ugly Politics Carpets (So Far) Solid Floorboards – September 27, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The drip/drip of negative political developments risks undermining economic sentiment.



 

China – Chinese Economic Momentum Softens And Stocks Rally (As Usual) – September 25, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese domestic-listed stocks are rallying while economic momentum hits another soft patch.



 

Webcast – The Fed Pauses Here, For Now (6min:35sec) – September 25, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide addresses the prospects for Fed policy over the coming year, in the context of our modestly positive outlook for growth and our expectation for the recent pickup in core inflation to sustain over the coming months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Absorbing Another Body Blow – September 20, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Better-than-expected U.S. growth and an upward creep in core inflation herald a pause in Fed easing.



 

U.S. – Fed Policy: A Pause Looms – September 19, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed delivered another 25 bps “insurance” policy rate cut at yesterday’s meeting.



 

U.S. – CPI: It Pays To Ignore Distortions – September 16, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core CPI reached its highest annual rate for the expansion in August, marking a noteworthy reversal from a weaker trend in Q1.



 

Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Business Cycle Remains Resilient – September 13, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global hiring plans have stayed solid despite the downturn in manufacturing and trade, and service sector PMI surveys remain positive.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook



 

U.S. – The Services-Manufacturing Divergence Persists – September 10, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investors’ pessimism in the U.S. business cycle was amplified last week, as the widely-followed ISM manufacturing PMI index fell below its contraction threshold of 50.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Third Time Lucky, Or The End Of The Cycle? – August 30, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investors should refrain from aggressive positioning on the basis of expected trade talk outcomes given the difficulty of forecasting President Trump/China’s next moves.



 

U.S. – Data Revisions: Don’t Look Back In Despair – August 29, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Amid elevated fears of an impending U.S. recession, many analysts have flagged the recent downward revisions to estimates of employment and corporate profits as bearish signals.



 

Webcast – Policy Whipsaws (10min:38sec) – August 28, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins and Prajakta Bhide discuss the implications of the recent trade spat between the U.S. and China, and examine the risk of recession in the U.S.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Is Trump Blinking? – August 23, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

President Trump appears to have heard the warning that his trade policy risks undermining his re-election prospects.



 

U.S. – Economy: Don’t Rule In A Recession Yet! – August 22, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Pessimism regarding U.S. economic prospects has been mounting since late last year, amid a deepening global manufacturing downturn, and persistently elevated uncertainty surrounding U.S.



 

China – Data Solid, Market Narratives Crumble – August 15, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Market narratives about China’s economy are far more pessimistic than the actual data, amplifying a negative feedback loop that stokes investor anxieties about global growth.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.



 

U.S. – Labor Market: Are The Good Times Ending? – August 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Research Reports · 

Employment growth generally lags economic activity, which implies that the employment gain in July, while fairly solid, says little about the economy’s prospects.



 

Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).



 

U.S. – Fed Policy: One For The Global Economy – August 1, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

As widely anticipated, the Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 bps at yesterday’s meeting, aiming to insure the U.S. economy against negative global developments.



 

U.S. Economy – What Was Noteworthy About Q2 GDP? – July 30, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investors remain on high alert for signs that the U.S. economic expansion is coming to an end, while the Fed is on the brink of easing the policy rate to provide some growth insurance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still Lacking A Catalyst – July 26, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global manufacturing weakness is persisting, which is dampening economic sentiment and investor risk-taking.



 

Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.



 

Webcast – How Would Firmer Inflation Impact Fed Policy? (8min:21sec) – July 24, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide addresses recent U.S. economic data in the context of Fed policy, focusing on the scope for firmer core inflation meaningfully altering Fed policy over the coming year.



 

Latam – Is Brazil Really A Better Credit Than Mexico? – July 23, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

The steady change in perceptions of economic/political risks in Brazil versus Mexico has seen Brazilian financial assets massively outperform their Mexican counterparts…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It May Be Unnecessary, But… – July 19, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors remain wary of taking risk outside of U.S. large-cap stocks, implying that there is still considerable sidelined cash to buy equities – but only if economic confidence improves.



 

Policy – U.S. Politics 2020: Democratic Disruptors Or Stabilizers? – July 18, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Despite President Trump’s low approval ratings, the Democrats face an uphill battle in winning the presidential election in 2020 given the healthy economy and the power of incumbency.



 

Webcast – Shiller P/E Ratio: Focus On The Earnings (8min:34sec) – July 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins takes another look at the Shiller P/E ratio to assess the implications for U.S. stocks.



 

U.S. – Core Inflation Has Picked Up, But Does It Matter? – July 16, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core CPI/PCE inflation picked up in Q2, supporting the view that its weakness earlier this year was driven by idiosyncratic and likely transitory factors.



 

U.S. – Housing: A Window Of Opportunity – July 10, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

In this report, we analyze U.S. housing indicators, which have been bottoming out this year following a reversal of last year’s rise in mortgage rates.



 

Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.



 

U.S. Economy – What Are U.S. Economic Indicators Signaling? – July 3, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Trade tensions have taken a modest toll on U.S. business and consumer confidence recently, but consumer spending and housing data were relatively solid.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Fixed-Income Performance During Past Mid/Late Cycle Fed Rate Cuts – June 28, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Making Selective Non-Dollar Bets – June 25, 2019
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The global economy and investor expectations have been caught between the clash in policy forces of heightened trade tensions and further monetary reflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Binary Outcomes – June 21, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed has now shifted full-circle to the dovish side. However, the forward markets are too aggressive in terms of expected rate cuts this year, unless economic activity deteriorates meaningfully, which we do not expect.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed Policy: Signaling A Rate Cut, In No Uncertain Terms – June 20, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed emphatically delivered on the financial markets’ expectation for a significant dovish shift in monetary policy guidance at yesterday’s FOMC meeting. In doing so, the Fed laid the groundwork for a policy rate cut at next month’s FOMC meeting



 

China – Will China Reflate, And What Would It Mean If It Did? – June 19, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Once a month, we review current Chinese macroeconomic indicators for signs of shifting momentum, potential policy adjustments and the outlook for China-related assets.



 

U.S. – Manufacturing: Another Mid-Cycle Slowdown, Or Worse? – June 18, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. manufacturing production growth has is weak, and manufacturers’ sentiment has tempered significantly this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Crosscurrents Continue – June 14, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equity and credit markets remain caught between mounting trade tensions, and supportive monetary conditions and positive underlying corporate profitability.



 

Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.



 

Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
 · Themes · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.



 

Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:07sec) – June 5, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide highlights from the MRB Annual Overview Of Key Macro And Investment Themes as well as a “roadmap” for investors to navigate the current global landscape.



 

U.S. – Yield Curve Inversion: Will The Fed Save The Day Like 1998? – June 4, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Last week’s inversion of the 3-month/10-year segment of the U.S. Treasury curve has renewed fears of a U.S. recession ahead.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · 

The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of  Key Macro Themes (Part I) – May 23, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

China – Preparing For A Digital Iron Curtain – May 22, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Beware the tendency to attribute every twitch in Chinese asset prices to the current tweet on trade.



 

U.S. – Import Growth: Low Scope For A Rebound – May 21, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. real non-oil import growth has slowed notably since late last year.



 

Foreign Exchange – The Yen Is A Hedge Against Political Turmoil -May 17, 2019
Foreign Exchange · 

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Economy – U.S. Tariffs: First Stagflation, Then … – May 17, 2019
Economics & Policy · 

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Webcast – Fed Policy: Navigating Inflation Distortions (10min:42sec) – May 15, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide addresses recent trends in U.S inflation and the scope for inflation to meaningfully alter Fed policy over the coming year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.



 

South Africa – Underwhelming Politics, But A Disaster Was Avoided – May 9, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

This week’s elections failed to deliver a convincing enough mandate for President Ramaphosa to carry out root-and-branch structural reforms, and while it is difficult to identify a long term winner, the clear loser is private sector investment and job creation.



 

Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.



 

U.S. – Could Low Inflation Alone Lead The Fed To Cut Rates? – May 7, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Speculation that the Fed could cut interest rates to spur U.S. inflation has risen recently.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care Stocks: Putting Policy Risks Into Context – May 2, 2019
 · Equities · 

Health care stocks have been battered in recent months due to concerns about increased government intervention in the sector.



 

Webcast – Blowing Bubbles (9min:15sec) – May 1, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Central banks have used subdued consumer price inflation to justify keeping policy ultra-accommodative.



 

Theme – A Bubbly World: A Critique Of The Fed’s Pivot – April 30, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Central banks have used subdued consumer price inflation to justify keeping policy ultra-accommodative.



 

U.S. – Are Inventories Dangerously High? – April 26, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. business inventory to sales (I/S) ratio, which has been rising since mid-2018, continued to boost GDP growth in Q1.



 

China – Will Foreigners Jump Back Into Chinese Equities Before Locals Lose Interest? – April 18, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

China’s economic momentum impacts global investors via three vectors: as a commodity consumer, as a global export engine, and as a source of domestic demand.



 

U.S. – Inflation: Will The Fed Look Past The Distortions? – April 17, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Benign U.S. inflation and inflation expectations played a key role in the Fed’s recent signal to hold off on policy rate hikes this year.



 

Webcast – Monetary Reflation In A Deleveraging World (12min:30sec) – April 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The mechanics and impact of monetary policy have been heavily debated from the onset of the Great Recession and has heated up again since the Fed whipsawed investors with a massive pivot.



 

U.S. – Housing: Room For An Upside Surprise – April 11, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The recent inversion of the U.S Treasury curve is widely seen as a bearish bond-market signal for the U.S. economy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.



 

Theme – Monetary Reflation Simplified: Mapping The Limitations & Risks – April 2, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

In this report we explain a simplified framework and use the U.S. and euro area as examples to answer several frequently asked questions as well as address a few common misconceptions.



 

U.S. – Yield Curve: Is Anything Really Different This Time? – March 28, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

U.S. Treasury curve inversions are rare and have a solid historical record of preceding U.S. business cycle peaks.



 

Policy – What’s Important To Know About MMT? – March 28, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has popped up on investors’ radar, and in the mainstream of policy debate, in recent months, but the concept has had a long gestation period.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed Policy: The Capitulation Continues – March 21, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

By removing the prospect of further rate hikes this year from the policy “dot plot”, yesterday’s FOMC meeting confirmed the sharp dovish turn in the policy stance signaled by chair Powell in January.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Tortoise Cycle – March 15, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The window of opportunity for further gains in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist for the next 6 to 12 months.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.



 

Japan – Corporate Finances: Healthy, But Struggling For Growth – March 14, 2019
 · Equities · 

Underlying profitability and balance sheet health have been on an improving trend for several years, and are sounder than Japanese stock prices imply.



 

U.S. – Capex: Moderating Growth, But Still Supportive For The Economy – March 13, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. nonresidential investment (capex) continued growing at a solid pace though the end of last year, providing a substantial lift to GDP growth.



 

U.S. – Consumption: No Signs Of Cyclical Weakness – March 7, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Adjusting for some near-term data distortions, U.S. consumption is on a solid footing.



 

Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.



 

Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue



 

U.S. – Recession Checklist: Taking The Pulse – February 28, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Recession fears escalated sharply in the fourth quarter of 2018, reflected in the sharp decline in risk asset prices and ultimately inducing the Fed to back off from planned monetary tightening.



 

Webcast – Euro Area Economy: Stronger Than Perceived (9min:23sec) – February 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Frank Petrocca provide their latest insights from a deep dive look at the euro area economy.



 

Euro Area: Temporary Slowdown, Or More Ominous? – February 22, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Research Reports · 

The euro area economy has downshifted substantially over the past year, causing investors are increasingly worrying about another recession.



 

Policy – What To Expect From U.S. Inflation Expectations – February 19, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed cited subdued U.S. inflation expectations as a key supporting factor in its recent decision to put policy rate hikes on hold.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Testing Times – February 15, 2019
 · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some key equity indexes are breaking above resistance levels and high-yield corporate bond spreads are narrowing, which bode well for risk assets.



 

Policy – What If Foreigners Retreat From U.S. Treasurys? – February 14, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The U.S. budget deficit is ballooning, while net foreign demand for Treasury securities is drying up.



 

Policy – Synchronized Moderation Temporarily Halts The Great Monetary Unwind – February 12, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S.-led gradual global monetary unwind has temporarily paused, with the Fed recently moving to the sidelines.



 

U.S. – Labor Market: It Pays To Participate – February 11, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. labor force participation rate rebounded in the latter half of last year and continued to rise in January.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Pain Trade Persist? – February 8, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth has softened, but key demand engines are in good shape.



 

Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.



 

Policy – The Powell Put, At What Cost? – February 1, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed may have boxed itself in with its dovish communication at this week’s policy meeting



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.



 

Emerging Markets – Latam Play: Brazilian Stocks And Mexican Bonds Will Win – January 31, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazil and Mexico typically compete for Latam portfolio flows. Today’s report concludes that investors are likely to rotate into Mexican peso bonds as the relative risk/reward profile has tilted against Brazilian local bonds.



 

Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.



 

U.S. – Economy: Moderating But Resilient – January 29, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

In this report, we highlight the charts that best capture our current views on the U.S. economy.



 

Webcast – U.S. Equities: Focus On The Top-Line (6min:59sec) – January 23, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins examines the outlook for revenue growth for the S&P 500 in 2019, which will be the key to equity market performance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.



 

Economy – The Rise In U.S. Inflation Is Back On Track – January 18, 2019
Economics & Policy · 

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Charts – What Is The U.S. Labor Market Signaling? – January 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. hiring showed exceptional momentum through the end of the year, despite the environment of elevated economic uncertainty.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.



 

Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It Is Either/Or – December 21, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The FOMC (and chair Powell) stumbled in its communication strategy this week.



 

U.S. – The Fed: A Swing And A Miss – December 20, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The FOMC issued a “dovish” fed funds rate hike at yesterday’s meeting, taking one rate hike off the table for next year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.



 

WMS – Global Politics – Some Relief Likely – December 14, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

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WMS – Central Bank Policy – The Fed’s Not Finished, And Will Set The Global Tone – December 14, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

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Charts – U.S. Housing Stress Persists – December 12, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

In this report we analyze recent U.S. housing indicators.



 

U.S. – Inflation: Don’t Extrapolate Softer Data – December 6, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

We expect a modest increase in U.S core inflation next year, while the consensus expects core inflation to largely flatline over the period with a downside bias.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-Off Pressures Ease – November 30, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Worries that the Fed will prematurely turn restrictive have diminished, helping to calm the Treasury market.



 

U.S. – Growth: Don’t Buy Pessimism At Face Value – November 29, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

We expect U.S. growth to weaken but remain above-potential next year.



 

Webcast – U.S. Corporate Debt: Vulnerabilities, But Blow-Up Fears Are Premature (8min:04sec) – November 28, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for U.S. corporate debt.



 

Charts – U.S. Corporate Debt: The Economy Trumps Leverage – November 27, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

Anxiety about the outlook for U.S. corporate debt has escalated recently, as evidenced by the sharp rise in corporate bond spreads.



 

Brazil – Overdone, Or Just Getting Started? – November 20, 2018
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Brazilian stocks, bonds and the Real have all been on a tear since their trough in September, benefitting our overweight positions in EM equity, bond and currency portfolios.



 

WMS – Economy – The U.S. Economy: A Bit Slower, But Mostly More Of The Same – November 16, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

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Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt Risks: Are There Any Safe-Havens? – November 13, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

Mismanagement of public finances leaves several developed markets susceptible to sovereign debt strains when the next global recession eventually arrives.



 

U.S. – Don’t Stress About U.S. Growth Prospects – November 7, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

Financial markets have recently reacted as if a significant global growth slowdown is looming.



 

Webcast – No Major U.S. Election Wave To Disrupt Markets (9min:05sec) – November 7, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins lays out the impact of the U.S. mid-term elections on capital markets and U.S. policy, as well as discussing the key drivers of investment positioning recommendations.



 

Webcast – The End Of Cheap Money: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (8min:57sec) – October 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). October 31 after… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Sentiment Versus Fundamentals – October 26, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.



 

U.S. – Moving With The Fed’s Anchor – October 25, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been responsive to the increases in the FOMC’s median estimate of the neutral policy rate this year.



 

Charts – China: Talking Up A Recovery – October 24, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange · 

This year’s deceleration of Chinese economic activity is on track, with the epicenter being a sharp retreat in public infrastructure spending.



 

South Africa – Circles Or Spirals? – October 23, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

It has been a turbulent year for South African financial assets, starting with a euphoric rally after President Ramaphosa’s victory in December 2017, and then giving back earlier gains as investors’ patience broke in the summer.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflective, Not Restrictive – October 19, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The equity market is at risk in the near run as investors grapple with the threat of rising interest rates and concerns about the economic outlook.



 

WMS – Economy & Policy – Italian Budget Proposal: Opening Salvo – October 19, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

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Charts – U.S. Interest Rates Aren’t Biting Yet – October 18, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The recent jump in U.S. bond yields has raised concerns that interest rates could threaten the U.S. growth outlook and leveraged borrowers in particular.



 

U.S. – CPI: A Fortuitous Miss, But Don’t Rest Easy – October 16, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

In this report we update our view on the trend in U.S. inflation. Last week’s U.S. CPI release showed core inflation rising less than expected in September.



 

U.S. – Optim-ism To Pessim-ism? – October 9, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

In this report, we look at the cyclical behavior of the U.S. ISM manufacturing index, which remains a highly useful short-hand guide to U.S. and global growth momentum, which has a meaningful impact on investment risk appetite



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Rebalance For The Rebound – October 4, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

EM currencies have recently decoupled from the U.S. dollar, forming a tentative bottom despite the dollar’s latest spike.



 

Theme – A Secular Upshift In Inflation (Part II) – October 2, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the concluding part of a two-part MRB Theme Report analyzing the underlying shift in the trend of global consumer price inflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Message To The Fed: It’s Far From Over – September 28, 2018
 · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A dovish Fed may provide Treasurys with a brief reprieve. However, we remain bearish on bonds: the Fed will ultimately raise rates by more than expected.



 

WMS – Equities – Italian Equities: The Doom Loop Rises Again – September 28, 2018
Equities · 

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WMS – Politics – U.K. Brexit Politics: Too Hot To Handle – September 28, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

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U.S. – Fed Policy: It’s All About Inflation – September 27, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

As widely anticipated, the FOMC hiked the fed funds target range at yesterday’s meeting.



 

Theme – A Secular Upshift In Inflation (Part I) – September 26, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

There has been a profound yet extremely underappreciated upshift in the underlying pulse of global inflation over the past decade.



 

Webcast – Are Trump’s Tariffs Politically Effective? (7min:15sec) – September 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani looks at some of the political dimensions of President Trump’s America First trade agenda.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Is The Worst Over? – September 21, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

On/off trade worries are again receding, spurring a risk-on phase. The global stock/bond ratio has room to rise, as positive economic fundamentals will persist.



 

WMS – Policy – Once Started, Wars Need To Be Won – September 21, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

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Asia Ex-Japan – China Macro Update: A Narrow Slowdown – September 18, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

The data releases for August indicate that Chinese economic growth is decelerating, but this is an extremely soft landing.



 

Charts – U.S. Wages: Onward And Upward – September 13, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

>U.S. employment gains have been solid this year. The labor market tightening is now unmistakably feeding into a wage acceleration, as we have been expecting.



 

Webcast – U.S. Housing – Churning, Or Grinding Lower? (9min:16sec) – September 5, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide addresses the softening in U.S. housing market data in recent months



 

U.S. – Housing: Confronting Weaker Data – September 4, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

We have been moderately optimistic regarding the single-family U.S. housing market, given the sector’s reasonably sound fundamentals.



 

Known Unknowns: The Keys To Investment Strategy – August 30, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · 

In an era of mega data, algorithm-based investing, and information overload, many of the ultimate keys to economic and capital markets performance depend on judgments about abstract, unknowable variables.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – Trade Anxiety Should Fade – August 28, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Whether due to fears of a global trade war, a significant yuan devaluation,… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Surmounting The Hurdles (Yet Again) – August 24, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth has stabilized at historically solid levels, underscoring that conditions remain supportive of equity markets and bearish for bonds.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – Yuan Devaluation Risks Are Low – August 21, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

We continue to believe that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) can, and will, support the trade-weighted yuan, which underpins our overweight positions in Asian stocks and currencies within their respective EM portfolios.



 

A Primer On IMF Rescue Plans: A Turkish Example – August 20, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Turkey is staring at a currency, banking and economic crisis as its access to foreign finance dries up.



 

U.S. – Inflation And Wages: Still On Track – August 16, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The July CPI report showed that core inflation continues gradually rise, aligning with our view that the late-Q2 dip was idiosyncratic and to be downplayed.



 

Webcast – Will Asia Catch The Turkish Flu? (5min:59sec) – August 15, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast, Adam Wolfe discusses the Turkish currency crisis, China’s exchange rate management issues, and the potential for contagion in Asia.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – Gauging The Contagion Risks For EM Asian Currencies – August 14, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

With Turkey on the edge of a currency and financial crisis, fears of contagion have spread to EM Asia.



 

U.S. Monthly Charts – The Economy Keeps Rolling Along – August 9, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report examines the latest U.S. GDP and personal spending reports



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Internet Companies (Part I): Are Growth Projections Realistic? – July 31, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The internet is eating China’s economy, and China’s large internet companies are eating their competitors. Investors believe that this trend will continue over the longer-run, thereby justifying the technology sector’s rich valuations.



 

U.S. – U.S. Fed Policy: Gearing Up To Complicated Times – July 27, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

FOMC members are confronting an economic and political environment considerably more complex than during the first half of the year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back From The Brink? – July 27, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There was a glimmer of hope this week that the U.S. will not push the world into a spiral of protectionism.



 

Webcast – MRB Q&A: Top Questions From Clients (9min:35sec) – July 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Peter Perkins answers some of the key client questions we have recently received, ranging from the impact of trade protectionism on investment strategy to the outlook for gold.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – Policy Debate Stokes Yuan Fears – July 24, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

Any forthcoming monetary easing is likely to be less than is already discounted by the markets, while a loosening of the fiscal screws should provide support for the yuan.



 

U.S. – Tariffs: Dark Clouds On The Horizon – July 20, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

An escalation of a trade war is a key downside risk factor in the U.S. and global economic outlook.



 

Latam – Latin America: Short Term Pain Will Give Way To Long Term Gain – July 19, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

Latam financial assets have been buffeted by the combination of rising global protectionist threats and self-inflicted wounds in Argentina, Brazil and until recently, Mexico.



 

Webcast – U.S. Tariffs: Current Effects And Future Risks (8min:55sec) – July 18, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

U.S. tariff measures will remain a key risk factor in the U.S. and global outlook for the foreseeable future.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – China Macro Update: Demand And Production Start To Realign – July 17, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese stock prices and the yuan have reflected concerns about a sharper economic slowdown ever since the demand-side measures fell short



 

U.S. Monthly Chartpack – Housing: Still Solid? – July 9, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

We have been optimistic on the U.S. housing market for the near-to-medium horizon, given the potential for a recovery in young household formation and homeownership, and benign inventory conditions.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – Yuan Depreciation Will Be Contained – July 3, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Those looking for a ray of hope in an otherwise gloomy investment landscape can point to the fact that a 3.3% decline in the yuan against the U.S. dollar in June



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Economic Resilience Last? – June 29, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There have been conflicting messages from global financial markets, underscoring the uncertain investment landscape.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – The Drums Of Trade War Echo Across Asia – June 28, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Sino-U.S. trade tensions have weighed heavily on Asia ex-Japan equities in recent weeks as the phony trade war now seems to be escalating into the real thing.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.



 

WMS – U.S. Policy – Trade War Outcomes Depend On Starting Conditions And Assumptions About Motivation – June 22, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

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Asia Ex-Japan Report – China Macro Update: Tight Credit Weighs On Investment – June 19, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese economic momentum remained robust in May, with the MRB Early Economic Activity Indicator signaling…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Hawks And Doves – June 15, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The U.S. economy is reaccelerating and we expect the Fed will lift its forecast for the longer-run equilibrium rate by yearend, given the ongoing upcycle in core inflation and wage growth.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed Policy: A Gradual Upshift Continues – June 14, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

As widely anticipated, the FOMC hiked the fed funds target range at yesterday’s meeting and the average expectation for rate hikes over the balance of the year shifted up very slightly.



 

Webcast – Euro Area: Cyclical Vs Structural Outlook (13min:54sec) – June 13, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 13 after… Continue



 

U.S. Monthly Chartpack – U.S. Business Fixed Investment: A Mid-Year Review – June 12, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

We have been expecting U.S. business investment to grow at a solid pace for a second consecutive year in 2018.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – Asia Policy Round Up: Gearing Up For The 2019 Elections – June 12, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

The U.S. dollar’s recent appreciation has bifurcated monetary policy across South and Southeast Asia.



 

Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part II): Structurally Flawed – June 11, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the second report of a two-part series which provides a broader perspective of the cyclical and structural crosscurrents facing the euro area.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Wobbly Leg? – June 8, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Recent weakness in some euro area economic indicators should soon give way to stability.



 

Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part I): Cyclically Resilient – June 7, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Several headwinds have hit the euro area in recent months, making investors question if the steady improvements recorded last year have given way to something more ominous.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – Can 1997 Happen Again? – June 5, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

U.S. dollar appreciation since April has exposed balance-sheet weaknesses in a handful of EMs, sparking fears of a currency crisis and contagion.



 

U.S. – How Solid Are U.S. Economic Indicators? – May 31, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

Following our analysis of the recent flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve and money growth slowdown, we argued that neither development warrants investors’ concern about U.S. growth prospects.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – Navigating The Political Risks In Southeast Asia – May 29, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange · 

After a shock election result, the new government in Malaysia has been grappling with the hidden fiscal weakness left behind by the previous, deeply corrupt ruling coalition.



 

Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.



 

U.S. – Should You Fear Slowing U.S. Money Growth? – May 17, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. monetary growth has slowed over the past several months, a development that coincides with the noteworthy flattening of the yield curve.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – Growth Fears Are Overblown – May 16, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s soft landing remained on track in April. The MRB China Early Economic… Continue



 

Theme – The Trade And Reserve Currency Systems At Risk – May 15, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

The global trading system that is a holdover from the 1944 Bretton Woods conference has passed its sell-by date.



 

U.S. – Don’t Fear the Flattener Redux – May 11, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The recent U.S. Treasury yield curve flattening has once again raised the specter of an upcoming yield curve inversion; the latter is historically well-established as a leading signal for U.S. recessions, equity bear markets and bouts of significant widening in credit spreads.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More Churning, But The Cycle Remains Intact – May 11, 2018
 · Commodities · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. inflationary pressures continue to slowly build, and emergency-level interest rates outside of the U.S. are no longer warranted.



 

WMS – Economy – Rising Inflation: This Time, It’s Not An EM Thing – May 11, 2018
Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  



 

Foreign Exchange Report – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in the near run.



 

Webcast – Iran Risk Does Not Justify $75/bbl Oil (6min:40sec) – May 9, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Wednesday Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses some of the investment implications of President Trump’s decision yesterday to withdraw the United Stated from the multilateral JCPAO agreement.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – Indian Risk Assets: An Underwhelming Outlook – May 8, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange · 

India’s economic recovery from the twin shocks of demonetization and the poorly managed rollout of the Goods & Services Tax (GST) has been disappointing.



 

U.S. Monthly Chartpack – A Wages And Inflation Recap – May 4, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

In line with our expectations, U.S. inflation has now fully climbed out of last year’s temporary slowdown, while wage growth is more clearly on an upward trajectory.



 

Theme Report – The Next Global Recession: Watching The Canaries – May 2, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The world economy has transitioned from subdued and desynchronized growth with disinflation and emergency policy settings, to a faster paced expansion with gradually building price pressures, and a slow but steady unwinding of hyper-accommodative monetary settings.



 

U.S. Policy – A “Potential” Argument For Higher U.S. Policy Rates – April 26, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed’s first policy rate hike came quite late in this expansion, with the U.S. output gap considerably less negative than at liftoff in prior hiking cycles.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – China Macro Update: An Unsustainable Property Rebound – April 24, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

China’s economic resilience in Q1 was largely driven by a rebound in residential construction, which propped up the heavy industrial sector.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year



 

Webcast – Currency Intervention In China And Hong Kong (6min:05sec) – April 18, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Adam Wolfe discusses central bank currency intervention in China and Hong Kong.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – Politics Point To A Stronger Yuan, Weaker Ringgit – April 17, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

In recent months, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has been guiding the yuan exchange rate higher and domestic interest rates lower, all in the context of financial market opening.



 

Charts – What’s Up With U.S. Household Deleveraging? – April 13, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

Following the deleveraging of the U.S. household balance sheet between 2007-2015, the household debt-to-income ratio is gradually rising again.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Many Moving (i.e. Conflicting) Parts – April 6, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

A moderation in growth momentum, combined with additional Fed rate hikes and, more recently, the escalating trade battle between the U.S. and China, implies continuing market volatility and warrants near-term caution toward risk assets.



 

U.S. Monthly Chartpack – What’s Down With Consumption? – April 5, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

A slightly more hawkish-sounding Fed and deteriorating sentiment in financial markets this year have raised questions about whether the U.S. economic cycle is nearing its end.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…



 

Theme Report – The New Macro Roadmap – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The “new normal” or “secular stagnation” thesis was the wrong framework, and just… Continue



 

Webcast – U.S.-China Trade Tensions: War Or Peace? (7min:28sec) – March 28, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The U.S. administration’s plan to slap tariffs on $60 bn worth of Chinese imports has raised concerns that the squabble could escalate into a global trade war.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – Is A Trade War Brewing? – March 27, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange · 

Proposed U.S. tariffs on about US$60 bn worth of Chinese imports roiled Asian markets at the end of last week.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Slippery Slope – March 23, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent risk-off phase was initially driven by rising bond yields, but now fears of protectionism have moved to the forefront. Barring an escalating trade war, we expect the pause in bond yields and correction in equity prices to reverse beyond the near run.



 

WMS – Trade Policy – U.S. Tariffs On Chinese Goods Won’t Fix The Problem – March 23, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports    



 

Policy – U.S. Policy: Catching Up To The Curve – March 22, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

>As widely anticipated, the FOMC hiked the fed funds target range at yesterday’s meeting; more importantly, the FOMC median projection for the terminal rate for the current cycle and the longer-run equilibrium policy rate both rose in March.



 

Webcast – U.S. Inflation: Gradual Uptrend Underway (8min:38sec) – March 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

U.S. inflation is in a gradual uptrend, but many investors remain on the fence regarding the durability of its recent gains.



 

Charts – U.S. Economy: Inflation In Charts – March 20, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

U.S. inflation is not rapidly accelerating as many feared last month, nor is it losing steam as many investors now believe: conforming to our expectations, inflation remains in a gradual uptrend.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Tug-Of-War – March 16, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in bond yields and equity prices is on temporary hold: growth momentum will slow a notch and protectionist concerns may keep some investors cautious, yet the cyclical buildup of inflation pressures will persist



 

Charts – The Great Monetary Unwind: Case By Case Basis – March 13, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed has led the global monetary unwind over the past couple of years, but an increased number of central banks have either joined or are preparing to do so in the months or year ahead.



 

China – Xi’s Power Grab Is Not A Prelude To Economic Reform– March 8, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Doing away with presidential term limits has put the final nail in the coffin for Deng Xiaoping’s political reforms.



 

Theme – Isolationism: Sadism Or Masochism? – March 8, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The threat of a U.S.-led trade war has been lurking since President Trump was elected and has now moved to the forefront of investor worries as the first shot may soon be fired.



 

WMS – Global Politics – Italy: Status Quo Ante For Markets – March 2, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

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Webcast – Don’t Count On Goldilocks Returning (10min:51sec) – February 28, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins and Prajakta Bhide discuss the near term outlook for capital markets and Fed policy.



 

Policy – U.S. Policy: A Test For the Fed’s New Captain – February 27, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

New Fed Chair Powell did not signal any change in the anticipated monetary policy path in this week’s semi-annual report to Congress.



 

U.S. – Housing: The Risk From Higher Mortgage Rates – February 22, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. mortgage rates have risen alongside long-term bond yields to reach their highest level since 2014.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Fed Become Hemmed-In? – February 16, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Further near-run turbulence in risk asset markets is probable until bond yields plateau.



 

Latam – Another Good Year Ahead – February 15, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Latam financial assets mildly underperformed their EM counterparts last year. However, the outlook… Continue



 

India – Budget: Don’t Worry, Be Happy – February 8, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors are treating last week’s budget announcement as yet another policy mistake by… Continue



 

Charts – U.S. Economy: Resilient With A Whiff Of Inflation – February 7, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports In this report, we highlight the key developments in U.S. economic indicators over… Continue



 

Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:56sec) – January 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). January 31 after… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The High-Wire Act Continues – January 26, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The backdrop remains bond-bearish. Meanwhile, technical and valuation measures are progressively deteriorating for equities, particularly in the U.S.



 

U.S. – Economy: No Shading In Sight – January 25, 2018
Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. economy is in a mild acceleration phase, and the odds of a recession are low at present, but it is inevitable that buoyant economic data will eventually cool and growth worries may resurface.



 

Charts – China: A Slowdown Looms, Not A Crisis – January 23, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

China’s economy is likely to decelerate in the first half of 2018 due to monetary tightening, harder local government budget constraints, and a wobbly housing market.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Into The Extrapolation Phase – January 19, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investors are discounting positive earnings trends well into the future, but have not yet made a parallel adjustment to their interest rate expectations.



 

WMS – Economy & Asset Allocation – Financial Stability: Watch The U.S. Dollar – January 19, 2018
Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – January 18, 2018
 · Themes · 

This is Part I of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Webcast – U.S. Tax Reform: Quantifying The Earnings Impact (12min:05sec) – January 17, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this webcast, Sal Ruscitti and Peter Perkins discuss the impact of the recent tax bill on the outlook for U.S. corporate profits, as well as for equity prices.



 

Webcast – U.S. Outlook: Solid Growth, Higher Inflation & Rising Yields (12min:14sec) – January 17, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar, Prajakta Bhide and Frank Petrocca provide MRB’s latest views on the U.S. economy and bond market.



 

Equities – U.S. Earnings: Tax Cut Juice – January 16, 2018
 · Equities · 

In recent weeks, consensus EPS estimates for 2018 and 2019 have noticeably risen



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Four-Legged Stool: One Too Many? – January 12, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain bearish on bonds and positive on the stock/bond ratio, but acknowledge that equity risks are increasing, with sentiment readings at their most frothy levels of the decade.



 

Charts – U.S. Economy: Another Solid Year Ahead – January 9, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. economic cycle stage is mature, but shows no indication of nearing a peak.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy –Risk Assessment: It’s Still Too Soon To Bail – January 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic and policy outlook remains positive for risk assets and we remain moderately overweight equities versus government bonds in a multi-asset portfolio.



 

South Africa – All Gain, No Pain (Yet) – December 21, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · 

The rand has been one of the most popular EM assets in recent weeks as the market forecasted (correctly) that Mr. Ramaphosa would win the ANC leadership race.



 

Chile – Copper Trumps Politics – December 20, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Chilean peso has significantly lagged copper prices since the start of the year, suggesting that domestic factors, namely weak growth earlier this year and politics more recently, have weighed on the currency in 2017.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Another Small Step, But Staying Behind The Curve – December 15, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The U.S. and euro area economies continue to strengthen, which will sustain better global trade.



 

Policy – The Fed Sticks To Its Roadmap – December 14, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

Delivering a widely anticipated fed funds rate hike, the Fed continued to signal three rate hikes in 2018 at its December meeting.



 

China – In 2018: What Could Go Wrong? – December 12, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

While our baseline forecast calls for a “softer, gentler” economic slowdown in China over the next 12 months, the risks to a multi-asset portfolio from China are skewed to the downside.



 

U.S. – Capex Cycle: Solid, With Room to Run – December 12, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. business fixed investment accelerated in 2017, following a historically unusual mid-cycle decline that was driven by the prior collapse in commodity prices and appreciation of the dollar.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – What’s Left To Discount? – December 8, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some near-run caution is warranted in risk asset markets, especially given prospects for higher bond yields.



 

WMS – U.S. Policy – Implications Of The U.S. Senate Tax Plan – December 8, 2017
Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Emerging Market Equities Report – Can EM Outperform Without China? – December 7, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM equities respond well to global growth drivers, a relationship once again reinforced by performance over the past year.



 

Webcast – What’s In Store For 2018 (8min:45sec) – December 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for the macro backdrop and the implications for capital markets in 2018.



 

Foreign Exchange Report – Window For Dollar Strength – December 5, 2017
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While the U.S. dollar has struggled to sustainably bounce off its September lows, underlying fundamentals still favor modest but narrow U.S. dollar appreciation.



 

Equities – U.S. Bank Stocks: Should Investors Heed A Flattening Yield Curve? – December 5, 2017
 · Equities · 

The recent sharp flattening of the U.S. yield curve has become a hotly debated topic among investors



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Outlook For 2018 – December 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

Strong returns for most risk assets combined with the advanced age of the U.S. economic expansion have many investors wondering to what extent dangers are building going into 2018.



 

Asset Allocation – The Yield Curve, Recessions And Asset Allocation – December 1, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · Fixed Income · 

An inverted yield curve has a reasonable track-record as an economic signal and hence the curve should be closely monitored in setting investment strategy and risk exposure. However, as an asset allocation and timing tool, there are several considerations in interpreting it.



 

Webcast – The Return Of Inflation: The Big Call For 2018 (10min:43sec) – November 29, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Prajakta Bhide provide MRB’s latest views on U.S. and global inflation. Highlights include:



 

Asia Ex-Japan – On The Road Again — Asia Trip Perspectives – November 29, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

Last week included a trip of client visits in Singapore and Hong Kong, the major theme of which was the outlook for capital markets in 2018 and appropriate asset allocation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It All Comes Down To Inflation – November 24, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain near-run cautious on risk assets, but are still positive on the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Charts – U.K. Equities: No Turnaround In Sight – November 22, 2017
 · Equities · 

The U.K. equity market faces a more challenging year as Brexit risks increase and commodity price gains fizzle.



 

Webcast – OPEC Wins The War, Loses The Peace (8min:22sec) – November 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, “OPEC Wins The War, Loses The Peace”, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for the oil market and the likely outcome for OPEC’s November 30th meeting.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – November 21, 2017
 · Equities · 

It has been a great year for Asia Ex-Japan equities. Global growth accelerated, and global exports outpaced GDP.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 17, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A near-run correction in risk assets is underway. We do not expect it to progress into a significant setback and thus are not de-risking our moderately pro-growth stance.



 

Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

U.S. – Inflation: Cyclical Components And Canaries – November 15, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The persistent divergence between robust U.S. labor market data and subdued inflation has… Continue



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part IV): Timing The End Of The Bull Market – November 10, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the fourth and final MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

Webcast – It Will Be More Difficult Next Year (8min:07sec) – November 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 8 after… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – November 6, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global equities have powered ahead in recent weeks, benefiting our pro-growth investment stance…. Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – November 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports It’s been a banner year for investors. Global equity returns are 21% year-to-date… Continue



 

Policy – A New Fed Chair: More Of The Same, For Now – November 2, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Fed Board governor Jerome Powell was announced as the nominee for the Federal… Continue



 

Charts – Equity Sectors: Our Favorite Charts – November 2, 2017
 · Equities · 

Today’s report provides our 12 favorite U.S. sector/industry sub-group charts. We also discuss their implications.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – November 1, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes · 

This is the third MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

South Africa Report – October 31, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

South African financial markets were buffeted by yet another government misstep, this time in last week’s mid-term budget speech during which the Finance Minister downplayed fiscal consolidation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 27, 2017
Asset Class Reports · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Both the ECB and the BoC confirmed that they remain keen to stay behind the economic curve, which is pro-growth and bullish for the global stock/bond ratio.



 

U.S. – Housing: From Revulsion To A More Normal Market – October 26, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.S. housing market is poised for a change after chugging along at a modest pace during the past few years.



 

Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part II): Asset Class Positioning – October 25, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the second MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle, which is one of our most popular thematic frameworks. Part I outlined our framework and where financial markets currently are within the investment cycle.



 

China – Private Sector: Crisis Or Opportunity? – October 24, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

China’s industrial-led rebound has greatly benefitted its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), while private industrial firms appear to have languished in terms of output and profits.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 20, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prospects for the three legs in the global economic stool – the U.S., euro area and China – remain upbeat.



 

Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part II): The Next Wave – October 19, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the second report of a two-part series, updating our submerging world theme. Part I outlined the ramifications resulting from the mushrooming and subsequent erosion of this segment of the global economy over the past decade.



 

Equities – Trump’s Executive Order On Health Care: Should Investors Worry? – October 19, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · 

Last week, President Trump decided to halt cost-sharing subsidies to health insurers on top of signing an executive order…



 

Webcast – A Saudi Devaluation: No Longer Unthinkable (5min:35sec) – October 18, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the mounting risk of a Saudi currency devaluation.



 

Emerging Markets – Saudi Arabia Doubles Down – October 17, 2017
 · Commodities · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

The Saudi regime faces spiralling threats from a demographic time bomb that implies internal political instability along with hazardous cross-currents of economic policy risks.



 

Switzerland – Will The SNB Join The Great Monetary Unwind? – October 13, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Research Reports · 

Swiss policymakers have struggled in recent years to set an appropriate policy mix for the overall economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 13, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We examine the main cyclical risk factors and conclude that they are still not flashing warning signs.



 

Latam Report – Opportunities Loom For Latam – October 12, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

A number of interesting investment opportunities will emerge in Latam financial markets once the final U.S. dollar cyclical upleg reaches its apex, and a China-related air pocket in commodity pits is out of the way.



 

China – Ignore Politics, Focus On Housing – October 12, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange · 

The Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Party Congress kicks off next week, which will result in a massive turnover of the country’s top political and military leadership.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – October 11, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks over the years.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – October 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

The current sweet spot is likely to give way to a more challenging investment climate in the year ahead…



 

U.S. – Dissecting U.S. Inflation & Wages: Not As Bond Friendly As Perceived – October 5, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

Inflation has been a hot topic among investors and FOMC members during this entire business cycle.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – October 5, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

A synchronized global trade cycle is traditionally the single most accurate indicator for EM currency outperformance.



 

Webcast – A Brief But Playable U.S. Dollar Bounce (8min:45sec) – October 4, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest thoughts on the U.S. dollar.



 

Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 29, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shifting trends in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could create near-term capital market turbulence.



 

Webcast – Politics Vs Economics And Regional Equity Positioning (7min:58sec) – September 27, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest regional equity outlook and recommendations



 

China – Reserve Currency Status: Can China Fake It ‘til It Makes It? – September 26, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. dollar weakness, an improving balance of payments and a solid domestic economy have all provided support for the Chinese yuan this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 22, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Cyclical prospects for the global stock/bond ratio will remain upbeat until the massive gap between interest rates and nominal GDP growth closes meaningfully.



 

Regional Equities (Quarterly) – September 21, 2017
 · Equities · 

There has been a significant divergence in relative performance of regional equities recently because of U.S. dollar weakness.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 15, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk appetite measures confirm that investors have become optimistic, but financial stress gauges are still upbeat.



 

Theme – Market Impact If The U.S. Dollar Melts – September 14, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon. In the current environment of solid growth and easy monetary policy, it will take some combination of economically-damaging political turmoil, decisively higher bond yields and/or a material breakdown in the U.S. dollar to threaten equities.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – September 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon.



 

Webcast – U.K. Economy: It Could Get Scary (9min:34sec) – September 13, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this webcast, Peter Perkins highlights the looming possibility that a nightmare scenario could develop for the U.K.



 

U.K. – U.K. Economy: The Nightmare Scenario – September 12, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

Earlier hopes that Brexit could be reasonably orderly have given way to a recognition that the economic costs could be significant.



 

Equities – Hong Kong Equities: Property Market Risks Loom Large – September 12, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · 

Hong Kong property prices have been inflated by extremely low interest rates well beyond any reasonable valuation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 8, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-term turbulence in risk assets may persist given the tense political and geopolitical backdrop.



 

Foreign Exchange Report – September 7, 2017
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has faced strong selling pressure this year, despite generally positive underlying fundamentals.



 

Webcast – Geopolitical Jitters: De-Risking Not Yet Warranted (6min:36sec) – September 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses asset allocation and investment strategy amidst the challenging political/policy backdrop.



 

Asset Allocation Report – September 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

An essentially quiet summer season (Northern Hemisphere) in capital markets has given way to renewed



 

Webcast – Upside Inflation Threat To Treasurys (7min:23sec) – August 30, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for inflation expectations, and highlights that risks are predominantly to the upside from current levels.



 

Global Fixed Income Report – August 30, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

In a world still starved for yield, small changes in relative interest rate expectations can have a disproportionate impact on foreign exchange markets.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation Expectations Are Also Poised To “Normalize” – August 29, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S Treasury yields have been in a downtrend since the early-1980s, reinforced this… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 25, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global stock/bond ratio faces some near-run challenges, but investors should stay positioned… Continue



 

Policy – Shrinking The Fed’s Balance Sheet: Much Ado About Nothing – August 24, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Many investors believe the Fed will have to decide between either shrinking its… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 18, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Political tensions remain elevated and could hold back risk assets further in the… Continue



 

Policy – Can Trump Tweet A Bear Market? – August 17, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Market participants normally desire a solid economy, pro-growth policies, stability and predictability. President… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 11, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports From a big-picture perspective, many risk assets are becoming progressively inflated as the… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 28, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The cyclical backdrop remains positive for equities and mildly negative for bonds. The… Continue



 

Policy – Why The Fed Will Hike Rates More Than You Think – July 27, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We have a very different view on the outlook for Fed policy than… Continue



 

China – A Softer, Gentler Chinese Housing Bust – July 27, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s housing market has held up somewhat better than expected, but the national… Continue



 

Webcast – Gauging U.S. Corporate Sector Financial Health (7min:22sec) – July 26, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). July 26 after… Continue



 

Equities – Ten Facts And Misunderstandings About U.S. Corporate Sector Financial Health – July 25, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The rise in U.S. corporate debt this cycle has been a consistent topic… Continue



 

Fixed Income – The ECB Is The Fed With A Lag – July 21, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The euro area economy is following the path of the U.S. and not… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 21, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Recent currency strength may delay/mute the move by non-U.S. central banks to become… Continue



 

Theme – Yield Curve: Don’t Fear The Flattener, Fear The Steepener – July 20, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors have grown accustomed to viewing a flattening yield curve as a bad… Continue



 

China – China’s Political Transition: “Core” Strength Or Institutional Resilience? – July 18, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Sometime later this year, most of China’s top political leaders will be replaced… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 14, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Reduce bonds to maximum underweight within a multi-asset portfolio, while boosting cash to… Continue



 

Canada: Is The BoC Making A Misstep? – July 13, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian dollar has firmed on the back of a decisively shift in… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Impacts Of The Great Monetary Unwinding – July 11, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Macro support for bond bulls has been eroding steadily in recent years, a… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 7, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Central bank rhetoric has hardened, sowing the seeds for higher bond yields since… Continue



 

Webcast – The Monetary Message (8min:59sec) – July 5, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). July 5 after… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – July 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A bumpy path is likely in the near term, but continue to overweight… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – When China And Commodities Falter, Which EM Assets Benefit? – June 29, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A likely 20% decline in the broad commodity price indexes and/or a meaningful… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 23, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economic surprise index is at a trough, whereas the euro area… Continue



 

Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – June 22, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports An increased number of central banks are feeling pressure to capitulate from an… Continue



 

Theme – U.S. Economy: From “Subdued” To More “Normal” – June 22, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economy has been closely following the path of countries that have… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 16, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors continue to bet that the Fed will not raise rates much higher… Continue



 

South Africa Report – June 15, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The widely-followed Composite Business Cycle Indicator’s improvement only reflects better external conditions, and… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 9, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Politics dominate the headlines, but improving corporate profits bode well for the global… Continue



 

Webcast – It’s The Economy… (8min:44sec) – June 7, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 7 after… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – June 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Some bumps are likely in the near run, but the fundamentals point to… Continue



 

Webcast – Ending Extreme Reflation: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (7min:04sec) – May 31, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 31 after 2:00… Continue



 

Policy – Staggered Exit To The Great Monetary Experiment: Gauging Central Bank Pressures – May 30, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Fed is well behind the growth curve and will continue its gradual… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 26, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Prospects remain positive for the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon,… Continue



 

Long-Term Returns Report – May 25, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Real returns on balanced portfolios will be low in the coming decade, on… Continue



 

Latam Report – Four Questions – May 23, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s impending housing market slowdown will weigh on commodity prices and Latam growth… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 19, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. political risks have increased and could trigger a risk-off phase. Equity leadership… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – May 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Chinese economy is starting to downshift, while investors are paring back their… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange Report – May 11, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Policy – Staggered Exit To The Great Monetary Experiment: Gauging Central Bank Pressures – May 30, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Fed is well behind the growth curve and will continue its gradual… Continue



 

Webcast – A Political Bullet Dodged (10min:29sec) – May 10, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 10 after 2:00… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – May 5, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Cyclical macro forces still point to higher G7 yields. The secular outlook for… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – May 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Expect further choppiness in the near term, but economic and policy conditions favor… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 28, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Euro area prospects improved this week, and we expect the growth gap between… Continue



 

Webcast – Politics, Politics And Markets: Near-Term Outlook (8min:24sec) – April 26, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). April 26 after… Continue



 

Geopolitics – The Likely Market Impact Of The French Elections – April 20, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The most market-friendly outcome in Sunday’s French election would be if Macron and… Continue



 

Webcast – DM Sovereign Debt Markets: Assessing Structural Vulnerabilities (7min:59sec) – April 19, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). April 19 after 2:00… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – India: Structural Reforms And Roadblocks – April 18, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports India’s structural reform agenda remains on track, and should benefit from Prime Minister… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Assessing Developed Market Sovereign Debt Risks – April 13, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Mismanagement of public finances has left much of the developed world susceptible to… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 13, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The recent risk-off phase for equities should persist given still-stretched technical conditions and… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – April 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A correction/consolidation phase for risk assets may prevail in the near term, but… Continue



 

China – Three Trackers For A Multispeed Economy – April 6, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We introduce a scaled-back version of the MRB China Economic Activity Indicator that… Continue



 

Equities – Implications Of Not Repealing Obamacare – March 30, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The failure of the Obamacare repeal bill creates uncertainty for the rest of… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 24, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The difficulty of legislating large policy changes in Washington is becoming apparent, setting… Continue



 

Webcast – EM Dollar Debt And Mexico: Overweight Now, Diverge Later (9min:26sec) – March 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 22 after… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Tequila Sunrise: Upgrade Mexico – March 21, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Firming U.S. non-oil imports will boost Mexican growth momentum, narrow the current account… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 10, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global economic backdrop is brighter than has been the case for several… Continue



 

China – China Economy: The Revenge Of Rebalancing – March 9, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Chinese investment growth is likely to slow in 2017, led by real estate… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Eastern Europe: A High Beta Play On The Euro Area Recovery? – March 2, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Idiosyncratic factors have lowered the region’s beta to the euro area economy, and… Continue



 

Webcast – Another Bite At The Brazilian Cherry (7min:11sec) – March 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 1 after… Continue



 

Canada – Canada Finally Faces Its Challenges – February 28, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy has weathered the commodity fallout reasonably well, and growth conditions… Continue



 

Equities – Euro Area Bank Stocks (Part II): Sifting Through The Opportunities – February 28, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There are significant disparities in equity earnings and valuation fundamentals across the major… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – February 23, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A comparison with previous market selloffs suggests that DM government bonds have likely… Continue



 

Equities – Is Trump Good Or Bad For U.S. Tech Stocks? – February 23, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports It is too early to judge whether the Trump administration’s policies regarding immigration,… Continue



 

Webcast – Euro Area Banks: Still Room To Run, But… (6min:26sec) – February 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 22 after… Continue



 

Equities – Euro Area Banks (Part I): Still Room To Run, But… – February 21, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Euro area banks offer significant upside potential, but current conditions warrant only a… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – February 17, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global trade is gradually recovering, which will help sustain the cyclical uptrend in… Continue



 

The Global Inflation Outlook And Inflation-Linked Bonds: Favor The U.S. – February 16, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Our base case economic view points to a continued rise in U.S. core… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange – Swedish Krona: Poised To Benefit From Policy Capitulation – February 16, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Riksbank’s overly accommodative policy setting is becoming increasingly difficult to justify. The… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange Report – February 9, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Webcast – Policy Uncertainty Amidst Improving Growth (9min:27sec) – February 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 8 after… Continue



 

South Africa Report – February 7, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A downturn in China’s housing cycle will dent Chinese demand for primary goods… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – February 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Favorable economic tailwinds warrant staying cyclically overweight equities versus bonds in a global… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 27, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The recent consolidation phase may be ending. Maintain a moderately pro-growth investment stance…. Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – January 26, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Synchronized economic growth momentum is enough to justify a short duration bond stance,… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: Retracing The Previous Bull – January 25, 2017
 · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. dollar is following the roadmap provided by the 1995-2002 bull market…. Continue



 

Webcast – The U.S. Dollar: Following The 1995-2002 Bull Market (6min:51sec) – January 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 25 after 2:00… Continue



 

China – Can China Tolerate Higher Interest Rates? – January 17, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Chinese interest rates are likely to drift higher over the next 12 months,… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 13, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Maintain a mildly pro-growth investment stance, but be prepared for a further near-run… Continue



 

Webcast – China’s Drumbeat And The Global Investor’s Music Sheet (7min:31sec) – January 4, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 4 after 2:00… Continue



 

China – China’s Cash Crunch: The Trilemmas And Tribulations Of The PBoC – December 21, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Yuan instability weighed heavily on risk assets in 2015 and early-2016, thus China… Continue



 

U.S. – How Much Of A Boost Will Trump’s Personal Tax Plan Deliver? – December 20, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports As currently described, Trump’s personal tax plan stands to significantly reduce U.S. Federal… Continue



 

Theme – De-Globalization: So Far, It’s Mostly Benign – December 13, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The apparent decline in globalization (so far) is due to weak growth and… Continue



 

Euro Area – Euro Area Economy: More Durable Than Perceived – December 6, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The euro area economic expansion looks remarkably similar to that of the U.S…. Continue



 

U.S. – Conditions Are Ripe For A U.S. Investment Rebound – November 29, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. fixed investment is poised to rebound following the contraction over the past… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange Report – November 25, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Theme – Investing Around Trumponomics – November 17, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A Trump presidency creates more political, economic and financial market uncertainty over the… Continue



 

Theme – Forced De-Globalization (Part II): Blame Technology Not Trade – November 10, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global trade, particularly with China, has taken an unfair amount of the blame… Continue



 

Theme – Forced De-Globalization (Part I): Benefits And Costs Of Trade – November 8, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Increased global trade has created tremendous benefits in recent decades, in terms of… Continue



 

Theme – The Long-Term Rate Outlook (Part III): Future Aftershocks Vs Potential Stabilizers – October 27, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The MRB Aftershock Theory highlights that several additional shocks from the Great Recession… Continue



 

Theme – The Long-Term Rate Outlook (Part II): Navigating The Fed’s “Crisis Of Faith” – October 20, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Fed has been challenged by the atypical response of the economy to… Continue



 

Theme – The Long-Term Rate Outlook (Part I): Secular Stagnation Versus MRB’s “Aftershock” Theory – October 18, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The theoretical and empirical basis for the secularstagnation narrative is weak. MRB’s aftershock… Continue



 

U.K. – Implications Of A “Hard” Brexit On U.K. Equities – October 13, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A hard Brexit poses an increasing risk to U.K. equities. The rally in… Continue



 

China – How China’s Property Boom Goes Bust (Again) – October 11, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s property boom has reaccelerated in recent months, which may push back the… Continue



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – October 6, 2016
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Theme – A Perfect Storm For Political Instability (Part II) – September 28, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Prolonged periods of extreme wealth accumulation lead to a growing number of affluent… Continue



 

Theme – A Perfect Storm For Political Instability (Part I) – September 27, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Great Recession and subsequent years of subdued economic and income growth have… Continue



 

U.S. – The U.S. Election: More Tweak Than Change Is Likely – September 13, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A Clinton presidency is the most probable outcome of this year’s election, which… Continue



 

Theme – Yield Convergence And Risk Assets – September 8, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Yields in high-quality government bond markets have converged at very subdued levels. While… Continue



 

South Africa Report – August 30, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Growth will remain weak but the external backdrop is currently supportive of South… Continue



 

Foreign Exchange Report – August 25, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

U.K. – Betting On U.K. Fallout: An Update – August 24, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Efforts by the new U.K. government and BoE are helping push out what… Continue



 

Russia – Are Any Russian Assets Uncontaminated By Oil? – August 12, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The pace of Russian economic activity is dominated by changes in commodity prices,… Continue



 

U.S. – The U.S. Housing Recovery Grinds On – August 4, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The housing outlook remains modestly upbeat and will contribute to economic growth in… Continue



 

China – China Economy: Prepare For A Rough Landing – August 3, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s property market looks set for a cyclical decline sometime in the next… Continue



 

Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – August 2, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Central banks will keep overall conditions very accommodative in all developed economies, although… Continue



 

Policy – Gauging Monetary Policy Pressures: Is Another Shot Of Reflation Warranted? – July 14, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Aggregate global policy conditions are already very accommodative. Nonetheless, Brexit will result in… Continue



 

Theme – The Brexit Dominos – July 7, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.K. pound and domestic risk assets have been beaten up, but the… Continue



 

U.S. – U.S. Recession Risks Are Still Low – July 5, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The MRB U.S. Recession Checklist Indicator (RCI) is still signalling low odds of… Continue



 

Theme – The Brexit Aftermath: Impact On Global Growth And Strategy – June 29, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Brexit is a credible threat to the global economy. The U.K. economy on… Continue



 

U.S. – Unemployment: What Is The Message For Stocks? – June 28, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Brexit warrants greater caution toward global and U.S. equities in the near run… Continue



 

Theme – Are India And Indonesia The Next China? – June 23, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports With structural reforms and appropriate macro policy, Indian growth could rise to about… Continue



 

U.K. – U.K. Brexit: Watch The Tail Risks – June 22, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We expect the U.K. to vote to remain within the European Union. However,… Continue



 

Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part III): Regional Assessment – June 15, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Aggressive U.S. policy reflation has been necessary to offset contractionary forces and encourage… Continue



 

Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part II): Breaking The Liquidity Trap – June 13, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The major central banks are still primarily focused on reflating by depressing interest… Continue



 

Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part I): Understanding Monetary Policy – June 9, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Monetary policy remains an essential part of any reflationary strategy, despite being somewhat… Continue



 

Theme – How China’s Economic Transition Is Reshaping The World – May 5, 2016
 · Emerging Markets · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s economy has started to transition toward using stuff more efficiently (what we… Continue



 

South Africa Report – May 5, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Weak growth and political headwinds will limit the government’s ability to implement structural… Continue



 

U.S. – U.S. Inflation (Part II): Is The Hibernation Over? – April 19, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. is not facing deflation; instead, a mild but broad-based rise in… Continue



 

U.S. – The U.S. Election: Does It Matter For Investment Strategy? – April 14, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A victory by a non-establishment candidate in the U.S. presidential election initially would… Continue



 

U.S. – U.S. Inflation (Part I): Are The Dollar And Oil Deflationary? – April 12, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There has been little impact on broad consumer prices from earlier dollar strength… Continue



 

China – Chinese Banks: Betting On A Bailout – April 12, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China is very unlikely to experience an imminent financial crisis, even without a… Continue



 

Theme – Replay Of 1998-2000 Update – April 7, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have benefited from an easing in recession fears, but further gains… Continue



 

Japan Report – April 7, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Most policy tools in Japan are impaired, increasing the challenges for the authorities… Continue



 

U.S. – U.S. Employment: A Very Long Upcycle – April 5, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Leading U.S. employment indicators remain upbeat, underscoring that the recovery in income and… Continue



 

U.K. Report – February 25, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.K. has substantial imbalances that threaten the longer-term outlook for its economy… Continue



 

China – Falling Reserves Do Not Signal Yuan Crisis – February 16, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China displays few of the macroeconomic imbalances that have preceded emerging market currency… Continue



 

Theme – Replay of 1998-2000 – February 11, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The selloff in risk assets has intensified and exhibits many characteristics similar to… Continue



 

U.S. – U.S. Economy: Key Questions For 2016 – February 9, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Current growth fears are overdone: there are low odds of a U.S. recession… Continue



 

South Africa Report – January 25, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Household consumption is vulnerable to higher interest rates, and will materially slow in… Continue



 

U.S. – U.S. Corporate Finances: Still In Solid Shape – January 19, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. nonfinancial corporate sector is still healthy, despite having increased its leverage… Continue



 

China – Is China About To Start Deleveraging? – January 12, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports “Supply-side reform” was the catch phrase that emerged from the China’s Central Economic… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Objectivism In Riyadh: Three Saudi Questions For Global Investors – January 11, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There are low odds of a Saudi Riyal devaluation in 2016 despite the… Continue



 

China – Winners And Losers From China’s Slowdown – November 5, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report gauges the relative impact of China’s slowdown on 20 major economies… Continue



 

South Africa Report – October 9, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Growth will remain constrained and public debt-to-GDP will continue rising, leaving South Africa… Continue



 

China – Chinese Banks: The Case For Re-Rating – August 11, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s commercial banks face headwinds from rising non-performing loans and regulatory changes. Nevertheless,… Continue



 

Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – July 16, 2015
Absolute Return ·  · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Policy trends will increasingly diverge across the globe over the next year, although… Continue



 

Policy – Diverging Monetary Policy Trends: A Comparison Of Central Bank Pressures – July 9, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The great monetary experiment has proven successful at stimulating global growth. Global policy… Continue



 

Euro Area – Exiting The Periphery Euro Area: Greece Vs Ireland & Spain – June 23, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There are growing divergences within the periphery euro area, reducing the usefulness of… Continue



 

Euro Area – Is Greece Truly Ringfenced? – June 17, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report explores the risk that contagion may spread to other euro area… Continue



 

Canada Report – June 11, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The collapse in commodity prices will have contagion for the broader Canadian economy…. Continue



 

Theme – Euro Area: Capitalizing On The Boom/Bust Cycle – June 11, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Major imbalances in the euro area and the lack of policy flexibility, makes… Continue



 

Theme – China Scenario Analysis: A Soft Landing Is On Track – June 9, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Chinese growth is stabilizing around 7% this year. The property market is slowly… Continue



 

Economy – Global Credit: The Recovery Is Gaining Traction – June 2, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A recovery of G7 credit to the private sector is underway, which should… Continue



 

Theme – European Monetary Union: Designed To Fail? – May 26, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Creating the European Monetary Union without a fiscal union was a major policy… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – The EM Earnings Matrix – May 19, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Recent compositional shifts within EM imply that the key earnings drivers are now… Continue



 

India – Indian Growth: The Blind Men And The Elephant – May 6, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Recent revisions to the headline growth and inflation metrics for India have made… Continue



 

China – Chinese Debt: A Rising Tide, Not A Tsunami – April 14, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The sharp increase in China’s debt-to-GDP ratio is perceived to be a major… Continue



 

U.S. – U.S. Consumption: Better Growth Ahead – April 7, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. real consumption is set to expand by 4% in the year ahead,… Continue



 

China – Policy Will Support Growth, Rebalancing And The Yuan – March 17, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The policy plans delivered to the National People’s Congress were constructive for growth… Continue



 

Indonesia Report – March 5, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Indonesian structural reforms will help to boost growth and narrow the current account… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Latin America: Time For Bottom-Fishing? – March 3, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The unwinding of the Commodity Supercycle will keep Latam growth weak over the… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Measuring EM Capital Flows – February 24, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports While FDI inflows to the EM world will improve modestly, portfolio capital flows… Continue



 

China – Tracking China’s Rebalancing – February 3, 2015
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Economic rebalancing and a gradual decline in potential output are making traditional proxies… Continue



 

Euro Area – The Euro Area Economy: Pessimism Is Overdone – November 25, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Euro area consumer prices continue to fall because the region has yet to… Continue



 

Policy Report – November 20, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

U.S. – U.S. Balance Sheets: Returning To Health – November 18, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The major U.S. sector balance sheets are getting healthier and should help fortify… Continue



 

Theme – Profiting From A Broken Central Banking Model (Part II) – November 13, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There are currently a number of policy distortions, resulting from inappropriate central bank… Continue



 

Theme – Profiting From A Broken Central Banking Model (Part I) – November 13, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Central banking must evolve in order to effectively manage modern economies. The Debt… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Asian Debt: Immune From “EM” Style Crises, But… – November 11, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Private sector debt levels have risen sharply across most of emerging Asia in… Continue



 

China – China’s Not Landing, It’s Reforming – October 14, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Chinese GDP growth will firm in 2015 on a cyclical rebound in the… Continue



 

Theme – The Return Of “Chindia”? – October 7, 2014
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports India’s long-term growth is likely to be driven by investment and manufacturing, while… Continue



 

Euro Area – Euro Area Deflation: How Great Is The Threat? – September 30, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A sector and country breakdown of consumer prices shows that the risks of… Continue



 

Theme – Positioning For A Fed Tightening Cycle – September 18, 2014
 · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economic recovery is becoming self-reinforcing and no longer warrants near zero… Continue



 

U.S. – Timing The Next U.S. Recession – September 2, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. expansion of the past five years has manifested itself as an… Continue



 

Policy Report – August 28, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

U.S. – How Long Will U.S. Inflation Remain In Hibernation? – August 12, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Occasional scares are possible as the economic cycle progresses, but U.S. inflation should… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – EM Assets And Fed Tightening: Hide, Then Seek – August 5, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A Fed rate hike is likely by mid-2015, and in anticipation of this… Continue



 

Switzerland Report – July 29, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Swiss franc ceiling was understandable in 2011 during the height of the… Continue



 

Mexico Report – July 15, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Mexico has an attractive structural reform story, but the investment play is via… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – EM Structural Reform: The Next Catalyst? – June 24, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Structural reform does not, at this time, constitute a catalyst for upgrading EM… Continue



 

Policy Report – June 5, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Policy – Decoupling Of Global Monetary Policy: A Comparison Of Central Bank Pressures – June 3, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The great monetary experiment has proven successful at stimulating global growth. Several central… Continue



 

South Africa Report – May 27, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Political risks are a headwind for the mining sector, not for the economy… Continue



 

India Report – May 20, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports While it is too early to bet on Indian structural reform, a strong,… Continue



 

Canada Report – May 13, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy will continue to be lifted by improving global growth and… Continue



 

U.S. – U.S. Housing: Still Upbeat, But More Modest Growth – May 8, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The MRB U.S. House Price Model is now forecasting a downshift in the… Continue



 

U.S. – U.S. Credit Growth: Will It Be Too Much, Or Not Enough? – May 6, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors should view an upturn in U.S. private sector credit as a positive… Continue



 

Sweden Report – April 1, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Sweden has a pro-cyclical economy that is competitive and positioned to benefit from… Continue



 

Geopolitics – Russia And Europe: Back To The Future, Not The End Of History – March 11, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Ukraine crisis highlights the fragility of the post-Cold War globalization trend Russia’s… Continue



 

Brazil Report – February 25, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Stay underweight Brazil in an EM equity portfolio. The Real will continue to… Continue



 

Policy Report – February 20, 2014
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Theme – China Financials: Where The Reformist Rubber Hits The Road – December 10, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Shanghai Free Trade Zone experiment marks the beginning of the end of… Continue



 

Policy Monitor (Quarterly) – November 21, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Country Report – Mexico – October 29, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Downgrade Mexico to neutral in an EM equity portfolio. The peso will outperform… Continue



 

Theme – The U.S. Fiscal Position: Just The Facts, Please – October 24, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. federal budget deficit and overall debt levels do not pose a… Continue



 

Country Report – U.K. – October 8, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each U.K. asset class (pdf format)… Continue



 

Country Report – Turkey – September 10, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Downgrade to underweight in EM currency and equity portfolios. Stay neutral U.S. dollar… Continue



 

Policy Monitor (Quarterly) – August 27, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Country Report – Indonesia – August 13, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Indonesia’s export reliance on commodities, and its domestic growth deceleration, both heighten risks… Continue



 

Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – July 11, 2013
Absolute Return ·  · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports No central bank faces immediate pressure to tighten. Regardless, most will be hesitant… Continue



 

Theme – U.S. Consumers: Spending Within Their Means – July 2, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The outlook for U.S. consumption is moderately positive: real growth of 3% or… Continue



 

Theme – Unwinding The Great Reflation: Gauging Relative Central Bank Pressures – June 27, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The world is experiencing a deflationary shock, thus no central bank faces imminent… Continue



 

Theme – China’s Credit Crunch: Tough Love Or Policy Error? – June 26, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We remain constructive on Chinese risk assets as the current credit crunch will… Continue



 

Country Report – Korea – June 25, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Overweight Korea in an EM equity portfolio, especially the technology and consumer discretionary… Continue



 

Theme – Is There Too Much Chinese Debt? – June 11, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Debt accumulation has been too rapid, and must slow down. While China is… Continue



 

Country Report – U.S. – June 4, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Our indicators and models are heralding a good year ahead, with real growth… Continue



 

Country Report – Russia – May 28, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Underweight Russian equities in an EM portfolio until oil prices are poised for… Continue



 

Policy Monitor (Quarterly) – May 23, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Theme – U.S. Housing: Solid Foundations – May 7, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The MRB House Price Model continues to signal solid gains ahead. Home Builders… Continue



 

Theme – Currency Wars & Extreme Policies – April 25, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Stiff deleveraging headwinds in a large portion of the global economy have left… Continue



 

Theme – U.K. Inflation: Less Than Meets The Eye – April 16, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.K. inflation is lower and less entrenched than many investors believe. Underlying inflation… Continue



 

Theme – This Is Not 1994 – March 27, 2013
 · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Fed will remain extremely transparent and try to limit interest rate volatility… Continue



 

Country Report – India – March 5, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The currency has further room to appreciate, both vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar and… Continue



 

Policy Monitor (Quarterly) – February 28, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Theme – Can The European Monetary Union Be Salvaged? – February 27, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The ECB has taken the mandatory steps to halt the fallout associated with… Continue



 

Country Report – Brazil – February 19, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The wheels will not fall off the Brazilian bus in 2013. A cyclical… Continue



 

Theme – U.S. Business Investment: Back On Track – February 12, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. business investment is showing signs of reviving and a solid rebound looms;… Continue



 

Country Report – Australia – January 29, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The outlook for 2013 is modestly positive for the Australian economy, as housing… Continue



 

Country Report – South Africa – January 15, 2013
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global investors should avoid the rand, bonds and maintain a maximum underweight in… Continue



 

Country Report – U.K. – December 18, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global economy and financial markets should strengthen in 2013, helping to prop… Continue



 

Country Report – China – December 4, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Domestic consumption is strong, output is picking up and early signs of an… Continue



 

Policy Monitor (Quarterly) – November 22, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Aggressive Federal Reserve policy is starting to work and the U.S. “fiscal cliff”… Continue



 

Country Report – Mexico – November 13, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Prudent fiscal policy and accommodative monetary settings offer liquidity tailwinds for private sector… Continue



 

Country Report – Canada – November 6, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy and banking system face a more difficult decade ahead, as… Continue



 

Policy Monitor (Quarterly) – August 21, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Euro area policymakers have become more willing to provide much needed reflationary support…. Continue



 

Country Report – Euro Area – August 14, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The rigidities of the euro area make it difficult to rebalance growth. Economic… Continue



 

Theme – Euro Area Policy Checklist Update – June 15, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Political backsliding this spring caused the euro area Reflationary Bridge to break down… Continue



 

Country Report – U.S. – June 5, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The subpar economic expansion should persist, although there will be more bumps ahead…. Continue



 

Theme – Gauging Relative Central Bank Pressures – May 29, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports None of the developed world central banks have intentions to tighten policy. However,… Continue



 

Theme – Global LeaderShift: Evaluating The Reflationary Bridge – May 15, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Policymakers in the submerging world are trying to provide a Reflationary Bridge to… Continue



 

Country Report – Japan (Part II) – May 8, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Japanese economy is export-led and will gradually benefit from the improvement in… Continue



 

Country Report – Japan (Part I) – May 1, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Japan still faces stiff structural headwinds. The economy remains inherently deflationary, business sector… Continue



 

Country Report – Canada – February 24, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy is littered with imbalances, leaving a worrisome longer-term outlook. Still,… Continue



 

Country Report – Korea – February 14, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Korea remains highly levered to global demand conditions. However, shifting trade patterns means… Continue



 

Country Report – U.S. – February 7, 2012
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We expect real growth in the 3% area for the next few quarters…. Continue



 

Theme – The U.S. Economy: Recession Ahead? – September 20, 2011
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The economy should avoid a recession given the resilience of leading economic and… Continue



 

Theme – Euro Area: Betting On Persistent Divergences – November 23, 2010
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The massive differences within the euro area mean that conditions will remain too… Continue



 

Theme – The U.S. Economy: Structural Headwinds Mean A Prolonged Sub-Par Recovery – November 9, 2010
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The MRB U.S. Economic Headwind Index warns that the economy will be vulnerable… Continue