Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022



Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets


Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks


Canada – Rising Interest Rates Threaten The Canadian Goose – June 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our latest views on the Canadian economy, particularly its interest rate sensitivity.


Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.


Policy – U.S. Fed: A Self-Made Pickle – June 16, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy after yesterday’s FOMC meeting


Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
 · Foreign Exchange · 

While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year


Webcast – Chinese Lockdowns Creating Pent-up Demand – (8min:58sec) – June 15, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani examines the outlook for China’s economy and markets in the context of renewed lockdowns imposed on Beijing and Shanghai in recent days


Policy – U.S. CPI: Sticker Shock – June 13, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report discusses Friday’s U.S. CPI report which underscored persistently high inflationary pressures in the economy


Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.


China – The Stock Bounce Has Begun – June 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

A much-anticipated positive shift in sentiment towards Chinese stocks appears to have begun, supported by easier liquidity conditions


Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.


Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth


Webcast – Gauging The Risk Of A U.S. Recession – (9min:15sec) – June 2, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses prospects for the U.S. economy, in the context of rising worries that the economy is heading toward a recession.


Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.


South Africa – Rand Bonds: Will SARB End The Party? – May 31, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

South Africa is one of the exceptions among the major EM bond issuers: its inflation has been much more modest than most emerging and developed market counterparts


Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.


Economy – Are Worries Of A Looming U.S. Recession Justified? – May 26, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. economic growth has cooled, partly due to base effects after a booming 2021, and partly due to high inflation, including the jump in energy prices this year.


Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets


Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.


Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.


Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.


Webcast – China: How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – (7min:47sec) – May 18, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for China’s economy and markets.


Economy – U.S. Housing: Cooling Demand, But Not Prices (Yet) – May 17, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing market activity will be an important gauge for whether the Fed’s policy normalization is reining-in aggregate demand as intended.


Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.


Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.


Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.


Policy – U.S.: The Fed Steps It Up, Hoping For A Break Later – May 5, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting


Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.


Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue


Webcast – The Great Bond Market Capitulation – (7min:48sec) – April 27, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses this year’s dramatic selloff in government bonds and provides a roadmap of what to expect heading forward.