Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021


economy-policy

 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.



 

Economic Note – Q2 GDP: Sounder Than It Seemed – Economic Note – July 29, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. real GDP grew a bit slower than expected in Q2 but this does not imply that the economy is on a weaker-than-expected cyclical trajectory.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Euro Area – Economy: Reasons For Some Optimism – July 22, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investor expectations for the euro area have been depressed by a decade largely characterized by a disinflationary funk.



 

Webcast – U.S. Inflation: Drilling Through The Noise – (7min:49sec) – July 20, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide highlights the prospects for U.S. inflation, contextualizing inflation’s sustainable outlook with noisy incoming inflation data.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.



 

Policy – China’s RRR Cut: Much Less Than Meets The Eye – July 16, 2021
Economics & Policy · 

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Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
 · Themes · 

This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Watch The Rising Underlying Trend – July 14, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With CPI inflation surprising sharply on the upside for the third consecutive month in June, the debate over whether the pickup in inflation could prove durable, as opposed to transitory (as the Fed believes), is likely to heat up further.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.



 

China – Back To Normal – July 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

While investors in the U.S. suffer bouts of anxiety over the first mutterings of a possible thought that the Fed may consider setting a date for the start of policy normalization, Chinese policymakers have already barged through the gates along this path



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.



 

U.S. Economy – Indicators To Watch -June 30, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With U.S. COVID-19 infections holding low and fiscal transfers providing continued support, the U.S. recovery gathered momentum in Q2, with real GDP likely growing by around 10% annualized.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.



 

Webcast – Fed Policy: A Step Back From “FAIT”? – (8min:21sec) – June 23, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the broad implications of the hawkish shift in the Fed’s policy stance at last week’s FOMC meeting.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed Policy: Reality Bites The Dot Plot – June 17, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy, in the context of yesterday’s FOMC meeting, which saw participants pulling the expected policy rate liftoff forward amid an increased confidence in the economic outlook and upward risks to inflation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return · 

The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Key Gaps Are Closing/Widening – June 11, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While uber-dovish monetary policies will remain supportive of risk asset markets, the widening gaps between nominal GDP growth and core inflation versus policy rates are unsustainable.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Focus On The Trend, Not The Noise – June 10, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. core inflation was anticipated to pick up over Q2-Q3 as the economy reopened.



 

Webcast – The Drivers Of Inflation Provide A Warning – (9min:49sec) – June 9, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar Phillip Colmar examines the forces that will drive consumer price inflation over the course of this cycle.



 

China – The Recovery Phase Is Ending – June 8, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The post-pandemic phase of China’s economic rebound has been exceptionally strong, and current data suggests it is already in the early stages of ending.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.



 

Theme – An Inflation Problem Is Brewing – June 3, 2021
 · Themes · 

The Fed and other major central banks are determined to lag well behind any upturn in consumer price inflation, and fixed-income investors are reluctant to revise up their depressed longer-term views on economic growth and inflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.



 

Webcast – U.S. Housing: Another Supply-Side Problem – (8min:00sec) – May 26, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the latest round of data from the U.S. housing market which shows that a constrained supply of homes has started to eat into homebuying.



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: Heading For A Burnout? – May 21, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing market activity, which rose sharply in an otherwise bleak economic backdrop last year, may have gotten a little bit ahead of itself.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.



 

Economy – U.S. Labor Market: A Supply-Side Squeeze? – May 11, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

April’s surprisingly weak U.S. payroll report highlighted potential supply-side roadblocks as the economy moves past the COVID-19 crisis.