Theme – Secular Equity Bull Market: Is There More Upside? – October 21, 2020


economy-policy

 

Theme – Secular Equity Bull Market: Is There More Upside? – October 21, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

Most investment strategy is focused on the cyclical trend in asset prices (i.e. the swings within a single economic or business cycle).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.



 

U.S. Election – What To Expect From A Biden Or Trump Victory – October 13, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The U.S. elections on November 3 could bring significant changes to fiscal policy and the economy in the next four years, with important implications for capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.



 

U.S. Equities – Trump Vs Biden: Where The Presidential Nominees Stand On Energy Policy – October 8, 2020
 · Equities · 

The upcoming election presents a stark contrast between Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s promise to overhaul the U.S. energy system to urgently deal with climate change



 

Webcast – U.S.: Tracking The U.S. Recovery – (8min:53sec) – October 8, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the U.S. economic outlook and highlights some key indicators for tracking the U.S. economic recovery.



 

China – Robust Recovery Offers Scant Global Comfort – October 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

The pace of China’s torrid post-Q1 economic rebound will ease off, but solid growth will be sustained thanks primarily to the robust service sector.



 

Zoom – Addressing President Trump’s Health, The Election And Implications For The Markets – (10min:26sec) – October 5, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this special update, Peter Perkins addresses some key questions about the impact of President Trump’s illness on the election and capital markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.



 

Economy – U.S.: Not Like Other Cycles – October 1, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Standard U.S. business cycle indicators have been less insightful in the current pandemic-driven downturn and subsequent rebound.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.



 

Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio. 



 

Economy – U.S. Housing: Can The Pandemic-Induced Buying Persist? – September 18, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing demand has risen robustly amid a very weak labor market, elevated economic uncertainty and a still-ongoing pandemic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.



 

Policy – U.S. Economy: The Danger Of Premature Austerity – September 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The aftermath of the Great Recession highlights the dangers of enacting premature fiscal austerity.



 

Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

China – Torrid Recovery Will Ease Off – September 8, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

China’s growth trajectory can be broken down into two components.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.



 

Economy – U.S. Consumption: Is Recent Strength Sustainable? – September 2, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

High-frequency data indicate that that U.S. consumption picked up in August, defying expectations for a moderation, given that Congress had allowed a key fiscal policy measure providing unemployment compensation to lapse in July.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.



 

Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts · 

Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.



 

Economy – What’s Up With U.S. Inflation? – August 18, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The COVID-19 crisis triggered a sharp decline in U.S. core inflation, but a noteworthy upswing in July hints that this cycle’s inflation downshift may have ended.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.



 

Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.



 

Webinar – U.S. 2020 Elections: A Lot Is At Stake For Markets – (72min:12sec) – August 12, 2020
Webcasts · 

Elections always matter and this year’s will be no exception, as the outcome will have a major impact on the U.S. economy and capital markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”