MacroResearchBoard
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economy-policy
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.
U.S. Economy – Key Indicators – November 16, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
Recent data show that the U.S. economy continues to expand at a decent pace, supporting our view that a U.S. recession remains unlikely for the foreseeable future.
Global Economy – Is Global Trade Reviving? – November 10, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
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China – Growth: Half-Full, Or Half-Empty? – November 9, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese household consumption is the new version of the analogy of the glass being half full or empty.
Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
Policy – U.S. Fed: Stepping Aside Without Declaring It – November 2, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged for the second consecutive FOMC meeting yesterday.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…
Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.
Fixed Income – U.S.: Parsing The Upside In Treasury Yields – October 12, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
The meaningful rise in U.S. long-term bond yields since April has been driven by both cyclical and noncyclical factors.
China – Recovery Steps Up A Notch – October 12, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
What will it take for foreign investors to shake off their bearishness on Chinese assets?
Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.
Charts – Are The Global Weak Links About To Snap? – October 4, 2023
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
We are highlighting a chartpack on global weak-link economies with household sector excesses, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K.
Mexico – Deglobalization And The Peso: Fact Versus Fiction – October 3, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Shifts in global supply chains have been one of the main characteristics of the current era of multipolarity and deglobalization.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.
Policy – U.S. Fed: A “Higher For Longer” Reality Is Sinking In – September 21, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
Yesterday’s FOMC meeting left the policy rate unchanged, but participants revised up their policy rate expectations for next year, and a few raised their expectations for the longer-run policy rate
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Canada – Housing: Sliding Down The Slippery Slope Of Hope – September 8, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
A massive Canadian housing bubble has been inflated in response to more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.
Economy – R-Starring The U.S. Economy – September 6, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
The resilience of the U.S. economy to higher policy rates in this cycle has led some investors and policymakers to speculate that the economy’s neutral real policy rate, or “R-star” may have risen following the pandemic.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Webcast – U.S.: Don’t Be Distracted By Core Inflation’s Current Descent – (6min:38sec) – August 23, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the prospects for U.S. inflation and highlights that while core inflation is descending, its underlying trend…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.