MacroResearchBoard

economy-policy

Policy – U.S. Fed: A Dovish Hike, But No Cuts In Sight – March 23, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed continued to tighten policy at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, using dovish forward policy guidance to address the recent developments in the U.S. banking sector.

Theme – Making Money During China’s Demographic Decline – March 21, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Themes · 

China’s official population count for 2022 was published in January and showed 9.6m births, outweighed by 10.4m deaths.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tip Of The Iceberg, Or Only A Brief Interruption? – March 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-off backdrop could persist in the near term, until banking fears start to subside.

Fed Policy – Juggling Mandates Will Not Lead To Rate Cuts This Year – March 17, 2023
Economics & Policy · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.

China – Surveys Show Recovery, Hard Data Will Follow – March 9, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

“Soft” data from surveys are showing China’s robust recovery is underway, but the usual seasonal distortions in hard data make it difficult to calibrate the implications for overall economic momentum for the time being.

Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.

Economy – U.S. Housing: Premature Optimism – March 2, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. housing market activity dropped sharply alongside higher mortgage rates last year…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.

Webcast – Equity Dilemma: Stronger Economy Vs Higher Bond Yields – (10min:05sec) – February 22, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the major macro forces driving equities and bonds and narrows in on the current outlook for investment strategy.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.

Policy – U.S. CPI: A Bit More Heat Than Meets The Eye – February 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

Year-over-year core CPI inflation has eased and will continue to decline this year, but the January CPI report underscored that the road will be bumpy.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.

China – Services Rebound, Broader Consumption Should Follow – February 9, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

The traditional travel boom during the Lunar New Year holiday period took place in January…

Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.

Policy – U.S.: The Market’s Had Enough, But The Fed’s Not Done – February 2, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued a smaller rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting, setting the tone for terminating the ongoing phase of policy tightening in a few months.

Webinar – Our No-Recession, Non-Consensus U.S. View Explained – (68min:00sec) – January 31, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar, Prajakta Bhide discusses why the U.S. economy remains likely to avoid a recession over the next year…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.

Korea – Export Recovery Papers The Cracks, For Now – January 26, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Korea’s equity market massively underperformed emerging market peers (EM), leaving valuations at extremely attractive levels…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.

Policy – U.S. CPI: Easing Steadily, But Medium-Term Signals Remain Firm – January 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inflation is unwinding last year’s spike, driven by falling goods prices.

Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.

China – Re-Opening Is Palpable, If Not Yet Measurable – January 5, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

High frequency data and anecdotal evidence suggest that Chinese workers and consumers are shaking off the tsunami of infections arising from the sudden abandonment of the COVID-zero policy.

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.

Webcast – The U.S. Economic Outlook For Next Year – (9min:17sec) – December 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. economy for the next year, highlighting the reasons why we think that a recession will likely be avoided.goalposts.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Global Economic Headwinds Easing – December 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some economic headwinds have recently eased, even as the major DM central banks have continued to hike their policy rates.