Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021


economy-policy

 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent stall in U.S. employment trends underscores the need for rapid vaccinations to clear the path to a self-reinforcing global economic expansion.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: The Near-Term Upside Will Fade, But… – January 15, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Cyclical U.S. growth prospects have improved on the back of COVID-19 vaccine approvals and the increased odds for additional fiscal stimulus.



 

Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.



 

China – Climbing The Wall Of Worry – January 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China continues to experience strong economic momentum, despite a stutter in December’s PMI surveys (which nevertheless remain firmly in expansionary territory).



 

Webcast – U.S. Economy: A Bridge To A Brighter Future – (6min:49sec) – January 5, 2021
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses MRB’s above-consensus U.S. economic outlook.



 

Economy – U.S. Economic Outlook: An Upside Surprise Awaits – December 22, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our U.S. economic outlook to account for recent progress on vaccinations against COVID-19, and the long-awaited forthcoming round of fiscal stimulus.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).



 

Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.



 

Economy – U.S.: A Restocking Boost Next Year – December 9, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. inventories experienced a deep drawdown in the first half of this year, amid COVID-19 distortions to demand as well as production/supply chain disruptions.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.



 

China – What Could Interrupt China’s Rebound in 2021? – December 3, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese economic momentum is by far the strongest in the world, which supports strong global appetite for Chinese financial assets.



 

Economy – Will U.S. Consumption Soon Drop Off A Fiscal Cliff? – December 1, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

While recent progress on COVID-19 vaccines has lifted prospects for U.S. growth in the second half of 2021



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts · 

MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.



 

Policy – Global Monetary Policy Will Stay Very Accommodative – November 24, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The report is an annual study that compares the relative pressures facing the various central banks in the developed world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.



 

Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.



 

Webcast – U.S. Economy: The Impact Of The Election And A Potential Vaccine – (7min:43sec) – November 12, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outcome of the U.S. election and the latest medical breakthroughs against COVID-19, in the context of their implications for the U.S. economy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.



 

Economy – U.S.: Withstanding COVID-19’s Third Wave – November 6, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The third major U.S. COVID-19 outbreak has seen daily virus cases climbing to their highest level of the pandemic, with cases trending higher in most states.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.



 

China – Domestic Growth Trumps Intermittent Foreign Demand – November 4, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

China is the only major economy recording positive GDP growth this year, and its central bank is the only one signaling policy normalization ahead.



 

Webcast – U.S. Election: What Does It Mean For Markets? (6min:39sec) – November 4, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outcome and implications for capital markets of the U.S. elections.



 

Election 2020 – How Will The U.S. Election Shape Financial Sector Regulation? – November 2, 2020
 · Equities · 

Financial sector policy proposals have largely been absent from this year’s election campaign as debates have mostly focused on issues such as the pandemic