Economy – U.S. Labor Market: A Supply-Side Squeeze? – May 11, 2021


economy-policy

 

Economy – U.S. Labor Market: A Supply-Side Squeeze? – May 11, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

April’s surprisingly weak U.S. payroll report highlighted potential supply-side roadblocks as the economy moves past the COVID-19 crisis.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – As Good As It Gets – May 7, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The aggressive monetary and fiscal support of the past year helped bring forward and fortify the robust rebound in capital markets relative to underlying economic growth conditions.



 

China – Reawakened Consumers Underpin Growth – May 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China is growing at a robust, above-trend growth, with concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic slipping into the distant past.



 

Policy – U.S. Corporate, Personal And Capital Gains Taxes: It’s The Economy That Matters – May 4, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

President Biden’s proposed tax hikes, by themselves, are negative for risk assets, but the long-term relationship between income, capital gains and corporate tax rates and economic growth and equity market returns is mixed.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.



 

Roundtable – U.S. Economy: From A Crisis To Supercharged Growth – (70min:36sec) – April 29, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this Roundtable, MRB’s U.S. Economy Strategist, Prajakta Bhide, discussed the outlook for the U.S. growth and inflation including the key upside and downside risks, and the likely course of monetary and fiscal policies.



 

Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.



 

Webcast – U.S. Economy: All Eyes On Inflation – (9min:25sec) – April 21, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide discusses the outlook for U.S. inflation and highlights the key price indicators to watch over the coming months.



 

Economy – U.S. Inflation: Still Early To Spot The Upside, But… – April 20, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report takes a closer look at the recent performance of U.S. inflation indicators.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.



 

China – Capital Markets With Chinese Characteristics – April 8, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s economic momentum remains strong and is broadening, and offers powerful support for a solid global expansion in output and trade.



 

Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.



 

Global Foreign Exchange – How Long Will U.S. Dollar Resilience Last? – March 30, 2021
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains mildly positive on the back of stronger relative growth (boosted by massive fiscal spending) and still oversold conditions (except versus the euro).



 

U.S. Economy – Indicators To Watch – March 26, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

With U.S. COVID-19 vaccinations accelerating and new infections well below January’s peak, economic activity has picked up faster than expected in Q1.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.



 

Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.



 

Economy & Policy – The Treacherous Path To U.K. Fiscal Sustainability – March 18, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

The U.K. is experiencing the third major episode of rising public sector net debt over the past century, although the prior two occurred amidst and in the aftermath of world wars.



 

Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.



 

U.S. Policy – Fed: Tantrum Management – March 15, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy, in the context of rapidly improving U.S. economic prospects, a potential multi-year shift in the fiscal policy backdrop, and the maiden implementation of the Fed’s new policy reaction function.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.



 

Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.