The Next Recession: Still Waiting For Godot – March 18, 2019

The Next Recession: Still Waiting For Godot

The U.S. business expansion has been the longest of the post-WWII period, which has caused many investors to fear that a recession is (over)due. However, the magnitude of the rise in GDP this decade has been less impressive, and the major global economies have lagged the U.S. Moreover, the stop-start and globally desynchronized nature of the recovery, have meant that the excesses which force policymakers to turn restrictive have not developed, nor are they a credible threat this year.

The implication is that the window of opportunity for risk assets will stay open since monetary conditions are still quite accommodative, yet there is enough economic momentum to support higher corporate profits. While conditions are getting stretched on a short-term basis, the global stock/bond ratio has more upside over the next 6-12 months.

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