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MRB TradeBook – Three New Positions And Tightening Some Stops – August 2, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are several changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: New Positions… Continue
Equities – The U.S. Equity Market Is Both More And Less Diverse Than Elsewhere – July 23, 2024
· Equities ·
Among the challenges facing global equity investors is the outsized weight of the U.S. market in the global benchmark, and the hefty weight of select tech/A.I.-related stocks in the U.S. market.
MRB TradeBook – Closing One Position – July 12, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere was one change to our positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: CLOSED… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Three Investment Themes – July 2, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
This report reviews three key long-term investment themes, including A.I. plays, beneficiaries of the global trade cycle, and areas where economic growth is likely to surprise either to the upside or downside.
U.S. Equities – Tech Charts That Make You Go Hmmm… – July 1, 2024
Equities ·
U.S. technology stocks have re-asserted their dominance over the equity market in recent months.
Regional Equities – Goldilocks “Light” Spurs A Broadening In Equity Leadership – June 25, 2024
· Equities ·
The investment backdrop remains broadly supportive for global equities, but performance will likely be choppy in the near term given some signs of slowing growth in the U.S. economy…
U.S. Equities – Technology Stocks: Facing More Than Just Rotational Headwinds – January 10, 2024
· Equities ·
U.S. technology stocks led big gains in the equity market for most of 2023.
2024 U.S. Sector Outlook – Laggards Will Get The Limelight – December 19, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. stocks are exiting 2023 riding a wave of optimism, punctuating a year of strong performance for the popular benchmarks.
Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
· Equities ·
Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…
U.S. Equities – Changes To The GICS® Structure: What Investors Need To Know – March 22, 2023
· Equities ·
Changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) will be made in the coming months.
Webinar – Investing In A Drawn-Out Late-Cycle Environment – (71min:13sec) – March 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Webinar featured Salvatore Ruscitti discussing the outlook for the U.S. equity market and the implications of the late-cycle macro environment for portfolio positioning.
U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Is All The Bad News Discounted? – November 8, 2022
· Equities ·
U.S. semiconductor stocks have posted big losses in 2022, with the semiconductor & semi-equipment index falling nearly 40% year-to-date on growing fears of a recession.
Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.
Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
· Equities ·
After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.
Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
· Equities ·
The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks
U.S. Equity Sectors – Tech Stocks: It May Be More Than Just Valuation Headwinds – April 22, 2022
Equities ·
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U.S. Equities – Will Rising Bond Yields Pummel Tech Stocks? – November 9, 2021
· Equities ·
U.S. technology stocks and growth equities more generally have been enormous beneficiaries of financial repression and the low interest rate environment that has prevailed since the Great Financial Crisis.
U.S. Equities – Semiconductor & Semi Equipment Stocks: Risks To The Cycle Are Piling Up – October 27, 2021
· Equities ·
After a huge run in the second half of 2020, the relative performance of U.S. semiconductor stocks has leveled off this year.
U.S. Equities – U.S. Growth Stocks: The Bar For Positive Surprises Is Very High – August 6, 2021
· Equities ·
Peak earnings growth, easing bond yields, and anxieties about the economic outlook have put U.S. growth stocks back in favor.
Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.
U.S. Equities – What The Bond Market Rout Means For U.S. Equities – March 2, 2021
· Equities ·
U.S. equity prices have been volatile of late due to a rapid rise in bond yields as government fixed-income markets have begun to discount stronger-than-expected economic growth and higher inflation.
U.S. Equity Sectors – Tech Stocks: Gathering Headwinds – February 26, 2021
Equities ·
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Equities – Canada: Earnings Beta Still Tied To Resources – February 24, 2021
· Equities ·
Canadian stocks will benefit from an improving domestic and global economy over the next 6-12 months, but we expect them to continue to underperform their global peers during the period.
Roundtable – U.S. Equity Sectors With Salvatore Ruscitti – January 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Roundtable, MRB’s U.S. Equity Strategist, Salvatore Ruscitti, discusses the outlook for the U.S. equity market and highlights our recommended sector positioning.
Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.
U.S. Sector Strategy – 2021 Outlook: From Rally To Rotation – December 23, 2020
· Equities ·
The expected widespread rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has boosted the outlook for the global economy.
Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
U.S. Equities – Election Post-Mortem: The Implications For U.S. Equity Sectors – November 17, 2020
· Equities ·
The U.S. election will not be certified by the Electoral College until mid-December, but Joe Biden is almost certain to be the next president.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.
Theme – Secular Equity Bull Market: Is There More Upside? – October 21, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
Most investment strategy is focused on the cyclical trend in asset prices (i.e. the swings within a single economic or business cycle).
Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
U.S. Equities – Trump Vs Biden: Who’s Better For U.S. Tech Stocks? – August 31, 2020
· Equities ·
The occupant of the White House over the next four years will have an influence on the outlook for the tech industry
U.S. Equities – Follow The Profit Cycle – July 23, 2020
· Equities ·
The uncertainties unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic pose a significant challenge for investment strategy.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
U.S. Equities – Navigating The Growth Vs Value Style Imbalance – May 7, 2020
· Equities ·
Growth stocks have continued to exert market leadership this year amid the COVID pandemic.
U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: An Overdue Reality Check – April 27, 2020
· Equities ·
U.S. technology stocks have been relatively resilient amid the COVID-19 health crisis and economic shutdown.
U.S. Equities – The Virus Makes The Timeline – March 31, 2020
· Equities ·
U.S. stock prices have recently bounced from their lows. To a large degree, the performance of the equity market going forward will be a function of sentiment towards the 2021 earnings outlook
U.S. Equities – Will The Equity Market Catch The Flu? – February 12, 2020
· Equities ·
After an initial modest drawdown, the U.S. equity market has more than recouped all its earlier losses from coronavirus fears.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Equities – Global Equities: Handicaps For Small-Cap Stocks – January 24, 2020
Equities ·
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U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: No Room For Disappointment – January 22, 2020
· Equities ·
U.S. IT stocks have been on a tear in the past year.
U.S. Equities – Looking Back At 2019 and Ahead To 2020 – January 9, 2020
· Equities ·
The U.S. equity market has started the year on a choppy note, with geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran whipsawing stocks prices in recent days.
Webcast – U.S. Equity Market Outlook: How To Position In 2020 (19min:04sec) – January 3, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the 2020 outlook for the U.S. equity market and how to position portfolios for the year ahead.
U.S. Sector Strategy – 2020 Outlook: Earnings Growth Will Still Be King – December 18, 2019
· Equities ·
Today’s report discusses how to position U.S. equity portfolios for the year ahead.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.
U.S. Equities – Stocks Go All-In On A Trade Deal – November 18, 2019
· Equities ·
U.S. equity prices have made new highs in the past month, with reduced recession fears and optimism about an easing of U.S./China trade tensions driving the advance
U.S. Equities – Cyclical Vs Defensive Tech: Where We Stand – November 7, 2019
· Equities ·
In recent months, market participants have rotated into the more cyclical components of the technology sector such as semiconductors and hardware equipment manufacturers from the more defensive software sub-group.
Global Equities – An Old, But Not Fully Mature Earnings Cycle – October 15, 2019
· Asset Class Reports · Equities ·
The global earnings upcycle is advanced, but should continue in the sluggish growth environment we anticipate in the year ahead.
U.S. Equities – Tech Capex: Up In The Clouds? – September 17, 2019
· Equities ·
The tech sector has drawn increased scrutiny of late given the poorly performing IPOs of a few unicorn companies, which have exposed the unprofitable business models of these firms.
U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Sniffing The Bottom Of The Cycle – July 23, 2019
· Equities ·
The outlook for U.S. semiconductor and semi-equipment stocks remains a hotly debated topic.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
U.S. Equities – Navigating Trade Uncertainties – May 14, 2019
· Equities ·
Equities have been jolted in the past week after an abrupt escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.
U.S. Sector Strategy – Signs Of Stability, But Too Early To Rotate Out Of Quality And Growth – April 4, 2019
· Equities ·
The first quarter saw cyclical stocks rebound from deeply oversold levels relative to their defensives counterparts.
U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Don’t Chase – March 22, 2019
· Equities ·
Our report discusses why investors should not chase the rally in the semiconductor sub-group.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
Webcast – An Update On The U.S. Market Outlook And Sector Positioning (7min:45sec) – February 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. equities and MRB’s recommended positioning.
Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: Putting The October Rout Into Context – November 12, 2018
· Equities ·
Technology stocks sold-off sharply last month as concerns about trade tariffs and rising interest rates spurred a significant bout of profit-taking in the sector.
U.S. Equities – Peak Earnings Growth, Not Peak Earnings – November 1, 2018
· Equities ·
Last month’s correction has pushed valuations for the U.S. equity benchmark to levels where they discount an overly bearish outcome for earnings.
U.S. Equities – Don’t Give Up On U.S. Growth Stocks – October 19, 2018
· Equities ·
End-of-cycle conditions are not on the horizon. However, a calming of trade tensions and improvement in non-U.S. economic growth momentum are needed to spur the next upleg in equity prices.
WMS – Emerging Markets – EM Equities: Apart From Tech, Perking Up In Relative Terms – October 19, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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U.S. Equities – Semiconductor & Semi Equipment Stocks: Too Early To Buy – October 19, 2018
Equities ·
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U.S. Equity Sectors – Don’t Chase Mini Rotations – October 4, 2018
· Equities ·
The crosscurrents of strong corporate earnings and global trade/non-U.S. growth uncertainties warrant maintaining only a modestly pro-growth sector positioning stance.
U.S. Equities – Earnings Reassure The Markets – August 10, 2018
· Equities ·
The broad-based strength in second-quarter earnings confirms that corporate fundamentals remain positive, implying that equities are likely to rise if protectionist threats diminish.
Webcast – GICS Reclassification And Its Implications (10min:07sec) – August 1 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti looks at the upcoming changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), and discusses their potential impact on sector behavior and the implications for investment strategy.
U.S. Equities – The Upcoming Reshuffling Of Sectors: What Are The Implications For Investors? – July 31, 2018
· Equities ·
Major revisions to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) structure are scheduled to go into effect on September 28, 2018.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Internet Companies (Part I): Are Growth Projections Realistic? – July 31, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities ·
The internet is eating China’s economy, and China’s large internet companies are eating their competitors. Investors believe that this trend will continue over the longer-run, thereby justifying the technology sector’s rich valuations.
U.S. Equities – Solid Corporate Fundamentals Vs Trade Uncertainties: The Tug-Of War Will Go On – July 18, 2018
· Equities ·
The U.S. equity market has been grinding higher in recent months, but a decisive breakout to new highs is unlikely before trade tensions calm and global economic growth momentum bottoms.
U.S. Equities – Fundamentals Still Favor A Moderately Pro-Cyclical Positioning Stance – July 10, 2018
· Equities ·
The equity market has been resilient of late despite escalating trade tensions.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Bear: Hunt Or Run? – July 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Despite large differences in sector composition, valuations, and international trade exposure, correlations between China’s CSI-300 index, the MSCI China and MSCI Hong Kong indexes have risen to the highest levels in more than a decade.
U.S. Equities – Staying Constructive, But Keep An Eye On Brewing Trade Tensions – June 26, 2018
· Equities ·
The equity market will remain choppy until trade uncertainties recede and global growth momentum bottoms.
U.S. Equities – A Valuation Deep Dive Across Sectors – June 18, 2018
· Equities ·
Valuations for the broad U.S. equity market have re-set lower since late-January.
U.S. Equities – The End Of Cheap Oil? – May 14, 2018
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Despite the recent positive price action, we expect macro cross-currents to keep equity… Continue
U.S. Equities – End-Of-Cycle Fears Are Premature – May 7, 2018
· Equities ·
Equities will continue to churn in the near run, but the risks of a recession in the next year remain low.
U.S. Equities – Good Earnings, Ho-Hum Reaction – April 30, 2018
· Equities ·
Rising bond yields and uncertainties related to trade policy were likely behind the “sell-the-news” reaction to solid earnings results last week.
U.S. Equities – Banks And Semis: Are The Bearish Narratives Justified? – April 23, 2018
· Equities ·
The upward bias in inflation expectations and bond yields implies that the digestion phase for the U.S. equity market will persist in the near run.
Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year
U.S. Equities – Will Earnings Assuage Investors? – April 16, 2018
· Equities ·
The U.S. equity market will remain volatile as economic growth momentum moderates and the cyclical build-up of inflationary pressures persists.
Webcast – Higher Volatility, But Not The End Of The Cycle (10min:53sec) – April 4, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Several issues have weighed on the equity markets in recent weeks including trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the spike in LIBOR rates, and concerns about increased government intervention in the technology sector.
U.S. Equities – The FANGs Lose Their Bite – April 3, 2018
· Equities ·
Equity markets have come under renewed downside pressure in the past week due to a host of factors including ongoing trade tensions, fears of increased regulation for the technology sector, and the LIBOR-OIS spread widening.
U.S. Equities – A Negative News Cycle For Stocks – March 26, 2018
· Asset Class Reports · Equities ·
U.S. equity markets were roiled last week as investors worried about several issues including the prospects of a trade war, the fallout from the data harvesting scandal at Facebook, and anxiety over Fed rate hikes.
Equity Sectors – U.S. Semiconductor Stocks: Staying The Bullish Course – March 6, 2018
· Equities ·
Following an earlier bout of profit-taking, the relative performance of U.S. semiconductor & semi-equipment stocks has rebounded impressively in the past month
Webcast – Volatility Redux: Assessing U.S. Portfolio Positioning (10min:31sec) – February 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast,Salvatore Ruscitti provides an update on our U.S. equity sector views given the shifting macro landscape
U.S. Equity Sectors – Positioning In A Higher Volatility World – February 20, 2018
· Equities ·
After a long absence, volatility returned to the equity market earlier this month, triggered by a breakout in Treasury yields.
Asia Ex-Japan – Will Technology’s Tailwinds Fade? – January 18, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Asia ex-Japan equities had a very good 2017, in large part due to the technology sector.
Webcast – 2018 U.S. Sector Outlook (14min:41sec) – January 3, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, equity sectors strategist Salvatore Ruscitti, assesses the macro outlook for 2018 and the implications for U.S. equity sector positioning.
U.S. Equity Sectors Report – 2018 U.S. Sector Outlook: Remain Diversified – December 19, 2017
· Equities ·
The U.S. equity market has enjoyed a banner year, with gains being fueled by a favorable macro backdrop.
U.S. – Capex Cycle: Solid, With Room to Run – December 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. business fixed investment accelerated in 2017, following a historically unusual mid-cycle decline that was driven by the prior collapse in commodity prices and appreciation of the dollar.
Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Charts – Equity Sectors: Our Favorite Charts – November 2, 2017
· Equities ·
Today’s report provides our 12 favorite U.S. sector/industry sub-group charts. We also discuss their implications.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part II): Asset Class Positioning – October 25, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
This is the second MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle, which is one of our most popular thematic frameworks. Part I outlined our framework and where financial markets currently are within the investment cycle.