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China – Earnings Are Lagging The Economy – April 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
In the face of near-universal bearishness among the chattering classes overseas about its economic prospects…
U.S. Commercial Real Estate – On The Watch List – February 16, 2024
· Economics & Policy ·
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Webinar – Canada’s Housing Crisis & Impact For Investors – (49min:00sec) – January 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist, has made headlines in Canada by expressing MRB’s view on Canadian housing, the BoC and implications for domestic investors.
China – Reform Chatter Fails To Inspire Investors (So Far) – January 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Two recent events have raised the prospect that Chinese policymakers might be inclined to bite the bullet on significant structural reform.
2024 U.S. Sector Outlook – Laggards Will Get The Limelight – December 19, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. stocks are exiting 2023 riding a wave of optimism, punctuating a year of strong performance for the popular benchmarks.
2024 China Outlook – Steady Growth Ahead – December 7, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Although few headlines in the financial media reflect this, 2023 was a year of solid, if patchy, economic growth momentum in China, which is closing out well ahead of mid-year consensus expectations.
U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: A Fed Pause Is Not An All-Clear Signal To Buy – November 21, 2023
· Equities ·
U.S. real estate stocks have taken a beating in recent years. The sector, which is mostly comprised of REITs…
Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
· Equities ·
Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…
China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…
China – Undervalued And Unloved, But Undeniably Growing – July 13, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Second-quarter earnings results are about to start rolling in, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.
Economy – U.S. Housing: Premature Optimism – March 2, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. housing market activity dropped sharply alongside higher mortgage rates last year…
Webinar – Investing In A Drawn-Out Late-Cycle Environment – (71min:13sec) – March 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Webinar featured Salvatore Ruscitti discussing the outlook for the U.S. equity market and the implications of the late-cycle macro environment for portfolio positioning.
2023 China Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…
Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.
China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.
Webcast – The Outlook For U.S. Home Prices – (7min:26sec) – September 8, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide highlights the weak performance of recent U.S. housing indicators and discusses the outlook for home prices for next year.
Economy – U.S. Housing Market: How Much Price Downside Ahead? – August 31, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
The U.S. housing market has rapidly become the weakest-performing sector of the economy, with higher mortgage rates deterring demand meaningfully in recent months.
U.S. Equities – Our Favorite Charts – August 26, 2022
· Equities ·
Today’s report presents some of our recent “favorite” charts.
Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
China – COVID-Zero Implies Continuing Economic Pain – August 4, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Prospects for a strong reopening recovery in China are evaporating in the face of the authorities’ obstinate attachment to a COVID-zero policy
China – When Will Reopening Lift Earnings? – July 7, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
With signs of economic reopening, foreign investors have been piling back into Chinese stocks in recent weeks, having rushed for the exits in prior months during the peak of lockdowns.
Canada – Rising Interest Rates Threaten The Canadian Goose – June 22, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report updates our latest views on the Canadian economy, particularly its interest rate sensitivity.
Webcast – China: How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – (7min:47sec) – May 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for China’s economy and markets.
China – Redistribution, Not Stimulus, Is The Opportunity – September 9, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Investors are in danger of misconstruing two current developments in China.
Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return ·
The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.
U.S. Equities – What The Bond Market Rout Means For U.S. Equities – March 2, 2021
· Equities ·
U.S. equity prices have been volatile of late due to a rapid rise in bond yields as government fixed-income markets have begun to discount stronger-than-expected economic growth and higher inflation.
Roundtable – U.S. Equity Sectors With Salvatore Ruscitti – January 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Roundtable, MRB’s U.S. Equity Strategist, Salvatore Ruscitti, discusses the outlook for the U.S. equity market and highlights our recommended sector positioning.
U.S. Sector Strategy – 2021 Outlook: From Rally To Rotation – December 23, 2020
· Equities ·
The expected widespread rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has boosted the outlook for the global economy.
U.S. Equities – Revisiting Two Ideas – December 8, 2020
· Equities ·
Our strategy this year has been to take a barbell approach to positioning U.S. equity portfolios, with selective bets on cyclicals and defensives/growth equities.
Economy – U.S. Housing: Can The Pandemic-Induced Buying Persist? – September 18, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. housing demand has risen robustly amid a very weak labor market, elevated economic uncertainty and a still-ongoing pandemic.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
U.S. Equities – Follow The Profit Cycle – July 23, 2020
· Equities ·
The uncertainties unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic pose a significant challenge for investment strategy.
Webcast – Canada: Will The Bubble Finally Burst? – (13min:26sec) – June 2, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest outlook on the Canadian economy and asset markets, with a focus on the potential for a bursting of the housing and credit bubbles.
Canada – On Thin Ice As It Heats Up – May 27, 2020
Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report updates our outlook on the Canadian economy and related investment strategy in response to the pandemic and related halt in activity.
U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: No Longer A Safe Haven – May 21, 2020
· Equities ·
The clouds hanging over the U.S. real estate sector have darkened since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
U.S. Equities – The Virus Makes The Timeline – March 31, 2020
· Equities ·
U.S. stock prices have recently bounced from their lows. To a large degree, the performance of the equity market going forward will be a function of sentiment towards the 2021 earnings outlook
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
U.S. Equities – Looking Back At 2019 and Ahead To 2020 – January 9, 2020
· Equities ·
The U.S. equity market has started the year on a choppy note, with geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran whipsawing stocks prices in recent days.
Webcast – U.S. Equity Market Outlook: How To Position In 2020 (19min:04sec) – January 3, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the 2020 outlook for the U.S. equity market and how to position portfolios for the year ahead.
U.S. Sector Strategy – 2020 Outlook: Earnings Growth Will Still Be King – December 18, 2019
· Equities ·
Today’s report discusses how to position U.S. equity portfolios for the year ahead.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.
U.S. Equities – Stocks Go All-In On A Trade Deal – November 18, 2019
· Equities ·
U.S. equity prices have made new highs in the past month, with reduced recession fears and optimism about an easing of U.S./China trade tensions driving the advance
Webcast – Still Scope For Another Upturn In The Global Earnings Cycle (11min:28sec) – October 23, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the earnings cycle across major markets, its key drivers, and the implications for equity prices.
U.S. Equities – A Reality Check For 2020 U.S. Earnings – October 16, 2019
· Equities ·
Third-quarter earnings season kicks off in earnest this week. Our report offers a preview of what to expect and what trends to watch.
Global Equities – An Old, But Not Fully Mature Earnings Cycle – October 15, 2019
· Asset Class Reports · Equities ·
The global earnings upcycle is advanced, but should continue in the sluggish growth environment we anticipate in the year ahead.
U.S. Sector Strategy – Stuck In “No Man’s Land” – August 29, 2019
· Equities ·
The seesawing in trade tensions between the U.S. and China has kept equities on a rollercoaster ride in recent months.
Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.
U.S. Equities – What Health Care Stocks Have That Other Defensive Sectors Lack – August 20, 2019
· Equities ·
Concerns about disruptive policy changes and headline risk in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election have pressured the relative performance of the health care sector this year
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
U.S. Equities – Navigating Trade Uncertainties – May 14, 2019
· Equities ·
Equities have been jolted in the past week after an abrupt escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
U.S. Sector Strategy – Signs Of Stability, But Too Early To Rotate Out Of Quality And Growth – April 4, 2019
· Equities ·
The first quarter saw cyclical stocks rebound from deeply oversold levels relative to their defensives counterparts.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: A Temporary Reprieve – February 14, 2019
· Equities ·
This report updates our views on U.S. real estate stocks (i.e. REITs).
Webcast – An Update On The U.S. Market Outlook And Sector Positioning (7min:45sec) – February 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. equities and MRB’s recommended positioning.
Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.
Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like
Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.
U.S. Sector Strategy – 2019 Outlook: Staying Balanced And Diversified – December 21, 2018
· Equities ·
Equity markets are ending the year on a downbeat note, with end-of-cycle fears and political uncertainties continuing to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.
Charts – China: Stocks Stir, Will The Economy Follow? – November 26, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Something is stirring in China’s mainland bourses: for the past month the local CSI300 index has been under less pressure than the MSCI China index.
Charts – China: Talking Up A Recovery – October 24, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
This year’s deceleration of Chinese economic activity is on track, with the epicenter being a sharp retreat in public infrastructure spending.
U.S. Equity Sectors – Don’t Chase Mini Rotations – October 4, 2018
· Equities ·
The crosscurrents of strong corporate earnings and global trade/non-U.S. growth uncertainties warrant maintaining only a modestly pro-growth sector positioning stance.
Webcast – U.S. Housing – Churning, Or Grinding Lower? (9min:16sec) – September 5, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Prajakta Bhide addresses the softening in U.S. housing market data in recent months
U.S. – Housing: Confronting Weaker Data – September 4, 2018
· Economics & Policy ·
We have been moderately optimistic regarding the single-family U.S. housing market, given the sector’s reasonably sound fundamentals.
Webcast – GICS Reclassification And Its Implications (10min:07sec) – August 1 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti looks at the upcoming changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), and discusses their potential impact on sector behavior and the implications for investment strategy.
U.S. Equities – The Upcoming Reshuffling Of Sectors: What Are The Implications For Investors? – July 31, 2018
· Equities ·
Major revisions to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) structure are scheduled to go into effect on September 28, 2018.
U.S. Equities – Fundamentals Still Favor A Moderately Pro-Cyclical Positioning Stance – July 10, 2018
· Equities ·
The equity market has been resilient of late despite escalating trade tensions.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Bear: Hunt Or Run? – July 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Despite large differences in sector composition, valuations, and international trade exposure, correlations between China’s CSI-300 index, the MSCI China and MSCI Hong Kong indexes have risen to the highest levels in more than a decade.
U.S. Monthly Chartpack – Housing: Still Solid? – July 9, 2018
· Economics & Policy ·
We have been optimistic on the U.S. housing market for the near-to-medium horizon, given the potential for a recovery in young household formation and homeownership, and benign inventory conditions.
U.S. Equities – A Valuation Deep Dive Across Sectors – June 18, 2018
· Equities ·
Valuations for the broad U.S. equity market have re-set lower since late-January.
WMS – Fixed Income – Favor Bond Markets In “Canary” Economies – May 11, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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U.S. Equities – End-Of-Cycle Fears Are Premature – May 7, 2018
· Equities ·
Equities will continue to churn in the near run, but the risks of a recession in the next year remain low.
U.S. Equities – A Negative News Cycle For Stocks – March 26, 2018
· Asset Class Reports · Equities ·
U.S. equity markets were roiled last week as investors worried about several issues including the prospects of a trade war, the fallout from the data harvesting scandal at Facebook, and anxiety over Fed rate hikes.
Webcast – Volatility Redux: Assessing U.S. Portfolio Positioning (10min:31sec) – February 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast,Salvatore Ruscitti provides an update on our U.S. equity sector views given the shifting macro landscape
U.S. Equity Sectors – Positioning In A Higher Volatility World – February 20, 2018
· Equities ·
After a long absence, volatility returned to the equity market earlier this month, triggered by a breakout in Treasury yields.
Webcast – 2018 U.S. Sector Outlook (14min:41sec) – January 3, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, equity sectors strategist Salvatore Ruscitti, assesses the macro outlook for 2018 and the implications for U.S. equity sector positioning.
U.S. Equity Sectors Report – 2018 U.S. Sector Outlook: Remain Diversified – December 19, 2017
· Equities ·
The U.S. equity market has enjoyed a banner year, with gains being fueled by a favorable macro backdrop.
Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Charts – Equity Sectors: Our Favorite Charts – November 2, 2017
· Equities ·
Today’s report provides our 12 favorite U.S. sector/industry sub-group charts. We also discuss their implications.
U.S. – Housing: From Revulsion To A More Normal Market – October 26, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
The U.S. housing market is poised for a change after chugging along at a modest pace during the past few years.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part II): Asset Class Positioning – October 25, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
This is the second MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle, which is one of our most popular thematic frameworks. Part I outlined our framework and where financial markets currently are within the investment cycle.