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Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware The Bite, Not The Bark – December 2, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to bet against the U.S. economy or position for a protectionist-induced global recession. The former still has solid momentum, especially in terms of consumption.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Clarity – November 22, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The still-positive economic backdrop, rising corporate earnings and additional DM policy rate cuts point to further risk-on in the near run…
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For The New Fat Tail U.S. Economy – November 20, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
U.S. equities, the dollar and Treasury yields have all risen sharply in response to better-than-expected U.S. economic data, and have received an additional boost from the election outcome.
Theme – Positioning For The New Fat Tail U.S. Economy – November 20, 2024
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
U.S. equities, the dollar and Treasury yields have all risen sharply in response to better-than-expected U.S. economic data, and have received an additional boost from the election outcome.
Webcast – Reflation: A Gift That Can’t Keep Giving Forever – (13min:11sec) – November 19, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns and appropriate investment strategy.
Long-Term Returns – Perpetual Reflation Is Unsustainable – November 14, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The capital markets landscape is set to change markedly over the next decade, with the huge gap in recent performance between stocks and bonds set to narrow or even reverse.
China’s Feel-Good Fiscal Non-Stimulus – November 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese policymakers’ charm offensive that began with monetary easing in September has continued with an impressive sequence of market-friendly announcements.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Temptation Is One Thing Investors Can’t Resist – November 1, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Ongoing global economic expansion, central bank policy easing, and abundant financial liquidity continue to tempt investors.
Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: How Much Portfolio Risk Is Appropriate? – (69min:51sec) – October 23, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the economic and policy outlook and the implications for global asset allocation strategy on a 6-12 month horizon
Asset Allocation Strategy – What Wall Of Worry? – October 4, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic and policy climate remains pro-risk, offsetting otherwise worrisome geopolitical developments and uncertainty about the upcoming U.S. election outcome.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Extending The Cycle – September 27, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global macro backdrop is positive for the global economy and capital markets, with DM policy rates easing even in the absence of the typical recessionary backdrop.
Webcast – The Center Will Hold – (11min:49sec) – September 11, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation on a 6-12 month horizon.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Reversals Of Fortune – July 26, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
What had looked likely to be a quiet balance of the summer has given way to new uncertainties in the forms of recent selling pressure among technology/A.I. stocks and the withdrawal of President Biden from the election this November.
Webcast – Summer Grind – (10min:16sec) – July 10, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Dog That Didn’t Bark – July 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The U.S. economy is downshifting from its prior brisk pace, but forecasts of an impending period of outright weakness or even recession are misplaced.
Absolute Return Strategy – Three Investment Themes – July 2, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
This report reviews three key long-term investment themes, including A.I. plays, beneficiaries of the global trade cycle, and areas where economic growth is likely to surprise either to the upside or downside.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Euro Area Will Not Be Derailed – June 21, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
French politics have created a buying opportunity for regional equities and the euro.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The End Is Not Nigh – June 7, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
While the catalyst for an end of the economic expansion is not yet in place, the investment landscape is likely to be choppy over the next 6-12 months…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Policy Rates, But Higher Bond Yields: This Won’t Last – May 31, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields are firming anew, which threatens the risk-on backdrop.
Long-Term Returns – A Reckoning Is Inevitable – May 30, 2024
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This old saw is especially relevant as the macro drivers of strong capital market returns over most of the past 40 years no longer pertain.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Hope Versus Reality – May 17, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. inflation is proving stubborn, and holding well above the Fed’s 2% target.
Webcast – The Economy, Not The Fed Will Drive Markets – (13min:02sec) – May 7, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Bank On Fed Rate Cuts – May 3, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Swings in expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to drive global capital market performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Maybe 5%, Not 4%, Is The New 2% – April 12, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A still robust U.S. economy and an improving global economic backdrop are positive for corporate profits and the global stock/bond ratio.
Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…
Regional Equities – Market Broadening Will Continue – March 28, 2024
· Equities ·
The latest dovish rhetoric from the Fed is a “green light” for risk taking and will support global equities in the near run, especially since global growth momentum is improving.
Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Time To Diversify – March 5, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The economic and policy environment remains supportive of pro-growth investments, but the rally is not without risks.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…
U.S. Equities – Exceptionalism Is Fully Discounted – February 22, 2024
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. equities have rallied strongly over the past four months, climbing to a… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…
Absolute Return Strategy – From “Soft Landing” To “No Landing” – January 18, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The equity and bond market are both priced for a Goldilocks U.S. economic outcome that is unlikely to persist as the year progresses.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Aggressive Rate-Cut Expectations Leave Most Markets Vulnerable – January 12, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth prospects were already modestly upbeat last autumn and have improved further due to much lower DM policy rate expectations and the sizable rebound in global financial markets.
Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2023 Review – January 9, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.
2024 Absolute Return Outlook – Focus On The Tails – December 14, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
2023 has turned out to be a rollercoaster for financial asset markets, with investors flipflopping on the recession call and outlook for policy rates.
2024 Asset Allocation Outlook – A Maturing Cycle, But The End Is Not Yet Nigh – December 1, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
A global or U.S. recession is not yet in the cards for 2024, although the lifespan of the economic expansion is inevitably shortening.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.
Theme – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
· Themes ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.
Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.
Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk-On Until Bond Yields Breakout – July 6, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks and investors have begun capitulating closer to our view that the cost of capital has not yet reached destabilizing levels.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Mixed Signals = Overweight On Cash – June 2, 2023
Asset Allocation ·
Markets are providing decidedly mixed signals about the economic outlook, highlighting investor uncertainty.
Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.
Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…
Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.
Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.
Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.
Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.
Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2022 Review – January 24, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.
Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Global Economic Headwinds Easing – December 16, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some economic headwinds have recently eased, even as the major DM central banks have continued to hike their policy rates.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…
Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;
Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.
Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.
Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.
Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.
Brazil – Defying Gravity – October 10, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Brazilian assets rallied after last week’s general election as the worst-case scenario for financial markets, in which former President Lula secures a first-round victory, was avoided. Therefore, the favorable relative growth backdrop which has been driving outperformance will remain intact.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.
Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices
Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
· Themes ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.
Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.
Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
· Themes ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
· Themes ·
The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession
Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Recession Or Resilience? – July 1, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Anxiety about the global growth outlook will persist in the near term, resulting in choppy capital market conditions and room for bond yields to retreat at least mildly further.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets
Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.
Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
· Themes ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth
Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
· Asset Allocation · Equities ·
The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.
Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.
Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue
Webcast – The Great Bond Market Capitulation – (7min:48sec) – April 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses this year’s dramatic selloff in government bonds and provides a roadmap of what to expect heading forward.
Theme – Government Bonds: This Is What Capitulation Looks Like (Phase 1) – April 21, 2022
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
The violent selloff in U.S. and G7 government bonds reflects the beginning of a major capitulation by both central banks and bond bulls
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.
Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Curve: What’s The Message, If Anything? – March 31, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has become a topic of high interest once again, now that it has become flat beyond 2 years, with segments of the curve mildly inverting.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.
Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.
Webcast – Looking Beyond The 0-1 Geopolitical Bet – (10min:42sec) – March 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and investment strategy for the next 6-12 months in the context of the Ukraine war.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Distorting To Reflective To Restrictive – February 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cyclically bearish on bonds, although yields could soon pause; conditions are becoming technically stretched and U.S. rate expectations have already ratcheted higher.
Webcast – COVID Fades: The Impact Of Reopening – (9min:03sec) – February 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses what the unwinding of the pandemic means for the global economy, policy, and investment strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – End Of COVID And Free Money – February 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The two themes that will be crucial in shaping the global macro environment this year are the fading of COVID as a meaningful restraint on global mobilit
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.
Webcast – The ECB Will Follow The Fed’s Pivot – (9min:04sec) – February 1, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses the next big central bank surprise, namely a pivot from the ECB, which will have major ramifications across asset classes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.
Euro Area – The Coming “Hawkish” Turn At The ECB – January 26, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
We expect the ECB will follow the Fed’s pivot later in 2022, and also begin the path to normalize policy thereafter.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.
Absolute Return Strategy – A Choppy Transition – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Last year was largely characterized by risk-on, fueled by extremely accommodative global monetary and fiscal policies, and a massive liquidity wave.
Webcast – As Go Bonds, So Will Go Risk Assets – (8min:35sec) – January 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended global multi-asset positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part I) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
One of our core themes in 2021 has been that the global authorities have forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Prolonging The Cycle – December 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run COVID-19 related headwinds will act to prolong the economic cycle, but seem unlikely to derail the recovery, based on current information.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.
Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns
Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.
Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.
Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets
Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).
Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.
Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.
Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.
Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy
Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.
Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.
Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.
Webcast – Transitioning From Maximum Growth And Policy Thrust – (9min:37sec) – September 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the shifting macro and policy backdrop and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Will Get Tougher From Here – September 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Two important shifts in the macro climate over the next 6-12 months point to lower investment returns and more painful corrections, which will challenge current trends in capital markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade Ahead – August 13, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Sentiment remains upbeat in the major economies despite ongoing angst about the COVID-19 Delta variant.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.
Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.
Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.
Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.
Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.
Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.
Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return ·
The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Key Gaps Are Closing/Widening – June 11, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While uber-dovish monetary policies will remain supportive of risk asset markets, the widening gaps between nominal GDP growth and core inflation versus policy rates are unsustainable.
Webcast – The Drivers Of Inflation Provide A Warning – (9min:49sec) – June 9, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar Phillip Colmar examines the forces that will drive consumer price inflation over the course of this cycle.
Theme – An Inflation Problem Is Brewing – June 3, 2021
· Themes ·
The Fed and other major central banks are determined to lag well behind any upturn in consumer price inflation, and fixed-income investors are reluctant to revise up their depressed longer-term views on economic growth and inflation.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.
Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.
Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Free Money Forever – January 29, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity market risks have recently eased on the fundamental side, as Treasury yields have calmed, but worsened on the technical side, as speculative froth has erupted. A pause in augmenting favored positions is still warranted.
Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.
Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.
Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.
Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.
Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
· Themes ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.
Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.
Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.
Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.
Absolute Return Strategy – Will COVID-19 End The Cycle? – February 27, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 threat arrived at a point when equity markets had an air pocket after materially rerating over the past year and were overly optimistic about the global growth outlook.
Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue
Webcast – Geopolitically-Driven Digestion Phase (8min:20sec) – January 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for capital markets in 2020, including the implications of the latest geopolitical crisis on investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.
Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Slow And Modest Upturn Lies Ahead – December 6, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
While global growth should gradually firm next year, it will be insufficient to warrant a decisive risk-on investment posture.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.
Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Asset Allocation Strategy – No Recession, But Not Much Growth Ahead – November 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
We expect the economic expansion to continue, but there is little basis for concluding a robust rebound in activity and profits looms over the next year that would justify a decidedly pro-growth investment posture.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.
Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.
Webcast – Still Scope For Another Upturn In The Global Earnings Cycle (11min:28sec) – October 23, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the earnings cycle across major markets, its key drivers, and the implications for equity prices.
Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.
Canada – On Borrowed Time – October 8, 2019
· Economics & Policy ·
The increasing imbalances and building vulnerabilities of the Canadian economy have been a regular theme in our research since the commodity Supercycle crested in 2013.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Absorbing Another Body Blow – September 20, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Better-than-expected U.S. growth and an upward creep in core inflation herald a pause in Fed easing.
Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook
Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.
Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still Lacking A Catalyst – July 26, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global manufacturing weakness is persisting, which is dampening economic sentiment and investor risk-taking.
Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.
Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.
Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
· Themes ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.
Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy ·
The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.
Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
Webcast – Euro Area Economy: Stronger Than Perceived (9min:23sec) – February 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Frank Petrocca provide their latest insights from a deep dive look at the euro area economy.
Euro Area: Temporary Slowdown, Or More Ominous? – February 22, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Research Reports ·
The euro area economy has downshifted substantially over the past year, causing investors are increasingly worrying about another recession.
Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.
Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.
Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
Webcast – Stylized Investment Cycle: Navigating The Endgame (11min:42sec) – December 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Global equity markets are in turmoil, as investors are rapidly downgrading the growth expectations and starting to panic about the potential for a global recession.
Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle: Extended Topping Out Process – December 4, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since we introduced it to clients earlier this decade.
Webcast – Bond Yields, Choke Points & Relief Valves (12min:26sec) – October 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Financial markets have been shaken as investors have rapidly adjusted their expectations to reflect a higher bond yield environment.
Webcast – A Fresh Test For Investors (8min:45sec) – October 10, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Bond Bear Bites Again – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
The abrupt breakout in U.S. Treasury yields over the past week caught many investors by surprise and sent shockwaves through financial asset markets.
Charts – The Credit Cycle: Late But Too Soon To Abandon Spread For Quality – September 11, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
After nearly a decade of depressed G7 government bond yields and a global search for yield, there are very few remaining appealing opportunities within fixed-income markets.
Known Unknowns: The Keys To Investment Strategy – August 30, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income ·
In an era of mega data, algorithm-based investing, and information overload, many of the ultimate keys to economic and capital markets performance depend on judgments about abstract, unknowable variables.
Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back From The Brink? – July 27, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There was a glimmer of hope this week that the U.S. will not push the world into a spiral of protectionism.
Webcast – MRB Q&A: Top Questions From Clients (9min:35sec) – July 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins answers some of the key client questions we have recently received, ranging from the impact of trade protectionism on investment strategy to the outlook for gold.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Churn Continues – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report revisits three topics that continue to be heavily debated and which we believe investors are focused inappropriately.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Economic Resilience Last? – June 29, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There have been conflicting messages from global financial markets, underscoring the uncertain investment landscape.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Hawks And Doves – June 15, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The U.S. economy is reaccelerating and we expect the Fed will lift its forecast for the longer-run equilibrium rate by yearend, given the ongoing upcycle in core inflation and wage growth.
Webcast – Euro Area: Cyclical Vs Structural Outlook (13min:54sec) – June 13, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 13 after… Continue
Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part II): Structurally Flawed – June 11, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series which provides a broader perspective of the cyclical and structural crosscurrents facing the euro area.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Wobbly Leg? – June 8, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recent weakness in some euro area economic indicators should soon give way to stability.
Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part I): Cyclically Resilient – June 7, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Several headwinds have hit the euro area in recent months, making investors question if the steady improvements recorded last year have given way to something more ominous.
Absolute Return Strategy – Into The Endgame – May 30, 2018
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Global equities have swung wildly this year. Our base-case view is that recent selling pressure will prove to be a setback, rather than the start of a bear market.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.
Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
· Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes ·
Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Floors And Ceilings – May 18, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakout in U.S. bond yields and rebound in the dollar underscore that the U.S. policy/economic cycle still has momentum.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More Churning, But The Cycle Remains Intact – May 11, 2018
· Commodities · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. inflationary pressures continue to slowly build, and emergency-level interest rates outside of the U.S. are no longer warranted.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Cash Is King – May 4, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The crosscurrents of a moderation in global growth momentum, combined with ongoing Fed rate hikes, rising U.S. inflation, and looming U.S. protectionist measures, portends continued churning in global capital markets in the near term.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Can Stocks Weather Higher Bond Yields? – April 27, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some positive economic surprises this week suggest that global growth is likely to prove resilient.
Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Many Moving (i.e. Conflicting) Parts – April 6, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
A moderation in growth momentum, combined with additional Fed rate hikes and, more recently, the escalating trade battle between the U.S. and China, implies continuing market volatility and warrants near-term caution toward risk assets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Slippery Slope – March 23, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent risk-off phase was initially driven by rising bond yields, but now fears of protectionism have moved to the forefront. Barring an escalating trade war, we expect the pause in bond yields and correction in equity prices to reverse beyond the near run.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Tug-Of-War – March 16, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rise in bond yields and equity prices is on temporary hold: growth momentum will slow a notch and protectionist concerns may keep some investors cautious, yet the cyclical buildup of inflation pressures will persist
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still In Flux – March 2, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity market correction has not yet run its course. On a positive note, the relative resilience of global financial stocks bodes well for another rally phase in the overall stock market
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Fed Become Hemmed-In? – February 16, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Further near-run turbulence in risk asset markets is probable until bond yields plateau.
U.S. Equities – Higher Volatility: It’s The Fundamentals – February 13, 2018
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Volatility has reared its ugly head in the past two weeks, suddenly bolting… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Transitioning To A New Era – February 9, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk asset prices will remain under pressure until bond yields stabilize. The latter… Continue
Webcast – The Correction Must Run Its Course (8min:50sec) – February 7, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 7 after… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Protecting Profits – February 5, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Two of the risk factors that we have been monitoring to time an… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue
Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:56sec) – January 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). January 31 after… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 30, 2018
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Into The Extrapolation Phase – January 19, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investors are discounting positive earnings trends well into the future, but have not yet made a parallel adjustment to their interest rate expectations.
Asset Allocation Strategy –Risk Assessment: It’s Still Too Soon To Bail – January 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic and policy outlook remains positive for risk assets and we remain moderately overweight equities versus government bonds in a multi-asset portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Betting Against the Consensus – December 22, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global stock/bond ratio has more upside, but mostly because bonds will generate negative returns rather than due to huge equity gains in 2018.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – What’s Left To Discount? – December 8, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some near-run caution is warranted in risk asset markets, especially given prospects for higher bond yields.
Webcast – What’s In Store For 2018 (8min:45sec) – December 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for the macro backdrop and the implications for capital markets in 2018.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Outlook For 2018 – December 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Strong returns for most risk assets combined with the advanced age of the U.S. economic expansion have many investors wondering to what extent dangers are building going into 2018.
Asset Allocation – The Yield Curve, Recessions And Asset Allocation – December 1, 2017
· Asset Allocation · Fixed Income ·
An inverted yield curve has a reasonable track-record as an economic signal and hence the curve should be closely monitored in setting investment strategy and risk exposure. However, as an asset allocation and timing tool, there are several considerations in interpreting it.
Asia Ex-Japan – On The Road Again — Asia Trip Perspectives – November 29, 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Last week included a trip of client visits in Singapore and Hong Kong, the major theme of which was the outlook for capital markets in 2018 and appropriate asset allocation.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 17, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A near-run correction in risk assets is underway. We do not expect it to progress into a significant setback and thus are not de-risking our moderately pro-growth stance.
Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part IV): Timing The End Of The Bull Market – November 10, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
This is the fourth and final MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 10, 2017
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bond and equity correction looms as the inflation, policy and economic backdrop turns marginally less supportive. Moreover, high-yield corporate bond spreads have edged up lately, a potential warning sign for equities.
Webcast – It Will Be More Difficult Next Year (8min:07sec) – November 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 8 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – November 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports It’s been a banner year for investors. Global equity returns are 21% year-to-date… Continue
Webcast – The Disinflation Tailwind Has Passed (9min:23sec) – November 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for the major asset classes and examines the key economic, policy and valuations drivers.
Long-Term Returns Report – October 26, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income ·
The coming decade will see an end to an era of steadily declining discount rates and the associated boost to asset valuations. Prospective returns for balanced portfolios will be middling by historical standards, accompanied by lower Sharpe ratios.
Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part II): Asset Class Positioning – October 25, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
This is the second MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle, which is one of our most popular thematic frameworks. Part I outlined our framework and where financial markets currently are within the investment cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 20, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Prospects for the three legs in the global economic stool – the U.S., euro area and China – remain upbeat.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part II): The Next Wave – October 19, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series, updating our submerging world theme. Part I outlined the ramifications resulting from the mushrooming and subsequent erosion of this segment of the global economy over the past decade.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – October 11, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks over the years.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 22, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Cyclical prospects for the global stock/bond ratio will remain upbeat until the massive gap between interest rates and nominal GDP growth closes meaningfully.
Theme – Market Impact If The U.S. Dollar Melts – September 14, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon. In the current environment of solid growth and easy monetary policy, it will take some combination of economically-damaging political turmoil, decisively higher bond yields and/or a material breakdown in the U.S. dollar to threaten equities.
Absolute Return Strategy – September 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon.
Webcast – U.K. Economy: It Could Get Scary (9min:34sec) – September 13, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this webcast, Peter Perkins highlights the looming possibility that a nightmare scenario could develop for the U.K.
U.K. – U.K. Economy: The Nightmare Scenario – September 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Earlier hopes that Brexit could be reasonably orderly have given way to a recognition that the economic costs could be significant.
Webcast – Geopolitical Jitters: De-Risking Not Yet Warranted (6min:36sec) – September 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses asset allocation and investment strategy amidst the challenging political/policy backdrop.
Asset Allocation Report – September 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
An essentially quiet summer season (Northern Hemisphere) in capital markets has given way to renewed
Absolute Return Strategy – August 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Market participants normally desire a solid economy, pro-growth policies, stability and predictability. President… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – August 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Many investors fear that the bull market in risk assets is in increasing… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – July 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global macro backdrop remains favorable for equities and other risk assets, while… Continue
Theme – Yield Curve: Don’t Fear The Flattener, Fear The Steepener – July 20, 2017
· Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors have grown accustomed to viewing a flattening yield curve as a bad… Continue
Webcast – The Monetary Message (8min:59sec) – July 5, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). July 5 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – July 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports A bumpy path is likely in the near term, but continue to overweight… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – June 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Maintain a mild pro-growth cyclical bias favoring equities over bonds, but expect near-term… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 23, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economic surprise index is at a trough, whereas the euro area… Continue
Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – June 22, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports An increased number of central banks are feeling pressure to capitulate from an… Continue
Theme – U.S. Economy: From “Subdued” To More “Normal” – June 22, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economy has been closely following the path of countries that have… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 16, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors continue to bet that the Fed will not raise rates much higher… Continue
Webcast – It’s The Economy… (8min:44sec) – June 7, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 7 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – June 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Some bumps are likely in the near run, but the fundamentals point to… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 26, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Prospects remain positive for the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon,… Continue
Long-Term Returns Report – May 25, 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Real returns on balanced portfolios will be low in the coming decade, on… Continue
Latam Report – Four Questions – May 23, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s impending housing market slowdown will weigh on commodity prices and Latam growth… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 19, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. political risks have increased and could trigger a risk-off phase. Equity leadership… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – May 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Chinese economy is starting to downshift, while investors are paring back their… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 12, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Near-run concerns aside, the 6-12 month outlook for the global stock/bond ratio is… Continue
Webcast – A Political Bullet Dodged (10min:29sec) – May 10, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 10 after 2:00… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – May 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Expect further choppiness in the near term, but economic and policy conditions favor… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 28, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Euro area prospects improved this week, and we expect the growth gap between… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 21, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The current correction phase in risk assets will persist but we do not… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – April 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The setback in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist over the… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 13, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The recent risk-off phase for equities should persist given still-stretched technical conditions and… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – April 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports A correction/consolidation phase for risk assets may prevail in the near term, but… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 31, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Some caution is still warranted in the near run, given heightened political tensions… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 17, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are vulnerable to a correction in the near term, following recent… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – March 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global economic expansion is likely to again become less synchronized as the… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 10, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global economic backdrop is brighter than has been the case for several… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – March 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Continue to overweight equities versus bonds on a 6-12 month horizon, although risks… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 10, 2017
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Another sustained upleg in the global stock/bond ratio is underway. While the investment… Continue
Equities – U.S. Style Cycle: Avoid Big Bets – January 3, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Upside risks to bond yields imply that value will outperform growth in the… Continue
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle Update: A Fairly Unique Cycle – October 5, 2016
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The evolution of investor risk-taking has been extremely slow in recent years. This… Continue