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Foreign Exchange – Stick With The Yen In An Uncertain World – October 9, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.
Foreign Exchange – The Multi-Year Case For The Euro – September 22, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The recent spike in euro area daily cases of COVID-19 has reignited economic pessimism, which has triggered a risk-off phase and bounce in the dollar, halting the rally in the euro.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.
China – Torrid Recovery Will Ease Off – September 8, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
China’s growth trajectory can be broken down into two components.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.
Foreign Exchange – Is U.S. Dollar Weakness Nearly Over? – August 28, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.
Fixed Income / Foreign Exchange – U.K. Risks Warrant Cautious Positioning – August 21, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.
Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
· Themes ·
Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”
Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.
Fixed Income/Foreign Exchange – Second COVID-19 Wave Hits Australia – July 31, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.
South Africa – Saved By The Fed, For Now – July 30, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
The IMF threw South Africa a lifeline this week and opened the door to other multilateral loans to deal with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
· Themes ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: A Gradual Uptrend Ahead – July 24, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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China – Cyclical Recovery Is Real – July 22, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
It may have taken a few months to revive after the initial lockdown, but June data confirms that Chinese economic activity has recovered from its early-year swoon and is growing at, or slightly above, its trend rate.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.
Foreign Exchange – Stick With The MRB Optimal FX Barbell Basket – July 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.
Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
· Themes ·
The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.
Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.
Foreign Exchange – SEK: Excesses And Weak Global Growth Are Headwinds – June 26, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It All Comes Down To Employment And Job Security – June 19, 2020
· Uncategorized · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or churning phase for equities is probable in the near term, given the sharp rebound in prices this spring and likelihood that corporate profits will not be able to return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Cyclically Neutral, But Structurally Bullish – June 12, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
LatAm – Sifting Through The COVID-19 Rubble – June 10, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Local currency-denominated bonds are the best LatAm play, and should be held at overweight within an EM local-currency bond portfolio.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.
Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity Currencies Will Need To Get Cheaper – June 3, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report highlights why the recent rally in developed commodity-based currencies should prove temporary as underlying fundamentals in these economies remain weak.
Webcast – Canada: Will The Bubble Finally Burst? – (13min:26sec) – June 2, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest outlook on the Canadian economy and asset markets, with a focus on the potential for a bursting of the housing and credit bubbles.
Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.
Canada – On Thin Ice As It Heats Up – May 27, 2020
Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report updates our outlook on the Canadian economy and related investment strategy in response to the pandemic and related halt in activity.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.
Foreign Exchange – AUD Is Still Not A Buy – May 22, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can Post-Pandemic Asia Outperform? – May 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
We remain broadly constructive on the prospects for EM currencies to gain versus the U.S. dollar as North East Asian economies deliver a more successful post-pandemic reopening…
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.
Foreign Exchange – The COVID-19 Effect On The Yen – May 8, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.
Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Saudi Arabia – 2020: A Replay Of Korea 1997? – April 29, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
In the EM world, the aggregate debt position of oil exporters was already far inferior to that of the broader universe before this year’s coronavirus-related collapse in oil demand.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.
Foreign Exchange – The Prospects For Petro-Currencies Are Bleak – April 24, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – The Great Halt Of 2020 – April 23, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report compares the current economic fallout with the previous and concludes that another Great Recession is very unlikely.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.
Foreign Exchange – Differentiating Bounces In Pro-Growth Currencies – April 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.
Global Foreign Exchange – Impact Of COVID-19 On FX Strategy – March 26, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Given the uncertainty associated with the global health crisis, it is helpful to consider scenario analysis for FX strategy over the next 6-12 months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.
Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – After The Virus… Recession Or Outperformance? – March 10, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Foreign exchange markets have seen volatility spike in recent weeks as investors grapple with the potential growth shock associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.
TradeBook Updates – March 6, 2020
Absolute Return · Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.
Absolute Return Strategy – Will COVID-19 End The Cycle? – February 27, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 threat arrived at a point when equity markets had an air pocket after materially rerating over the past year and were overly optimistic about the global growth outlook.
LatAm – Bonds And Rates Will Outperform – February 27, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
LatAm’s investment landscape beyond the short term will be characterized by a modest recovery in global trade and supportive global liquidity, all of which are positive for financial assets in the region.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (19min:00sec) – February 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
. In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month, including the virus.
Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: Positively Infected – February 21, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.
Foreign Exchange – Swedish Krona: Cheap, But Stay Selective – February 14, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.
Policy – Little Pressure On Monetary Policy This Year – February 6, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The challenge heading forward for policymakers will be for those markets facing housing and credit excesses that ultimately will limit, if not prevent, any monetary tightening.
Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.
Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.
Foreign Exchange – Be Selective With The Swiss Franc – January 24, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.
Foreign Exchange – Upgrade The Singapore Dollar To Overweight – January 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Upgrade EM Currencies Versus The U.S. Dollar – January 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
A steady if unspectacular improvement in global trade momentum, along with supportive global liquidity, imply that conditions are ripening for the outperformance of an EM currency basket versus…
Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Great Year And A Great Decade: Can It Continue? – December 20, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We continue to recommend a mildly pro-growth investment stance across most asset classes.
Webcast – FX Strategy For 2020 (13min:31sec) – December 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this today’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the outlook for FX strategy in 2020.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Positioning For 2020 – December 12, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report outlines our FX positioning in 2020. This year the U.S. dollar traded marginally higher on the back of weaker external growth and ongoing uncertainty associated with trade and politics.
Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Slow And Modest Upturn Lies Ahead – December 6, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
While global growth should gradually firm next year, it will be insufficient to warrant a decisive risk-on investment posture.
Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Consolidation Before More Upside? – November 29, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The resilience of the consumer sector bodes well for the U.S. economic outlook.
Foreign Exchange – CAD: The Best Of A Bad Lot – November 29, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Validation – November 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There are tentative signs of a trough in manufacturing activity, but follow-through will be critical to sustain the recent breakout in equities and the global stock/bond ratio.
Foreign Exchange – Use The Yen As Insurance – November 22, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – A Skinny Trade Deal Adds Comfort, Not Return – November 19, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In a growth-challenged world, EM currencies are unlikely to escape the see-saw impact of global risk appetite, and will continue to maintain their negative correlation with the U.S. dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy – FOMO Versus A Challenging Earnings Outlook – November 15, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity should gradually improve in the coming year, but much strongergrowth is highly unlikely.
Foreign Exchange – New Zealand Dollar: A Weak Currency Is Needed – November 15, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Worries Recede Further – November 8, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stability in manufacturing PMI surveys and the recent easing in trade tensions have spurred higher equity prices and bond yields.
Foreign Exchange – Believe In The Euro – November 8, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Euro Area – Economy: Weak But Resilient – November 5, 2019
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report updates our euro area economic outlook and focuses on two key topics that are crucial to the euro area, namely the global auto industry and the German labor market.
South Africa – Rand Bonds Will Shine, Despite Downgrade Worries – October 31, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
There’s been no shortage of negative headlines about Eskom’s bailout, its impact on South Africa’s public debt sustainability, and the potential downgrade to sub-investment-grade status.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Turn In Manufacturing – October 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Non-U.S. equities have perked up, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity will keep a lid on equity prices and bond yields.
Foreign Exchange – Choosing Between Two Canaries – October 25, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.
Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Relief, But Risks Remain – October 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global trade and manufacturing indicators are still generally weak, and the protectionist backdrop will continue to hold back the global economy.
Foreign Exchange – Brexit Deal Speculation Provides “Temporary” Relief To The GBP – October 18, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Bending, But Not Yet Breaking – October 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Trade policies and heightened domestic economic tensions continue to erode global economic sentiment, although not yet by enough to undermine the expansion.
Foreign Exchange – The Expensive U.S. Dollar Makes Selectivity Critical – October 11, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.
Canada – On Borrowed Time – October 8, 2019
· Economics & Policy ·
The increasing imbalances and building vulnerabilities of the Canadian economy have been a regular theme in our research since the commodity Supercycle crested in 2013.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.
Webcast – China Recovers From Soft Patch, India’s Decline Accelerates (6min:40sec) – October 2, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani examines the evidence for China’s rebound from a soft spot in its manufacturing economy, along with the deterioration of India’s cyclical growth conditions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Ugly Politics Carpets (So Far) Solid Floorboards – September 27, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The drip/drip of negative political developments risks undermining economic sentiment.
Foreign Exchange – Choosing Between The Aussie And Kiwi Dollars – September 27, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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China – Chinese Economic Momentum Softens And Stocks Rally (As Usual) – September 25, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese domestic-listed stocks are rallying while economic momentum hits another soft patch.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Highly Political World – September 19, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
Increased political uncertainty and trade threats have fueled financial market volatility, benefiting safe-haven currencies including the U.S. dollar. However, further upside for the dollar should prove limited.
Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Business Cycle Remains Resilient – September 13, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global hiring plans have stayed solid despite the downturn in manufacturing and trade, and service sector PMI surveys remain positive.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Indiscriminate Weakness Opens Up Opportunities – September 5, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Whether weighted by equity or debt benchmarks, EM currency aggregates have given up all their 12-month gains relative to the U.S. dollar.
Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Is Trump Blinking? – August 23, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
President Trump appears to have heard the warning that his trade policy risks undermining his re-election prospects.
Foreign Exchange – The Swiss Franc: The Lucky Canary – August 23, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Fearing Fear – August 16, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Rising protectionism remains the main global economic threat.
China – Data Solid, Market Narratives Crumble – August 15, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Market narratives about China’s economy are far more pessimistic than the actual data, amplifying a negative feedback loop that stokes investor anxieties about global growth.
Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).
Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.
Latam – Is Brazil Really A Better Credit Than Mexico? – July 23, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
The steady change in perceptions of economic/political risks in Brazil versus Mexico has seen Brazilian financial assets massively outperform their Mexican counterparts…
Weekly Macro Strategy – It May Be Unnecessary, But… – July 19, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors remain wary of taking risk outside of U.S. large-cap stocks, implying that there is still considerable sidelined cash to buy equities – but only if economic confidence improves.
Foreign Exchange – The U.K. Pound Will Stay Weak Versus The Euro – July 19, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.
Webcast – Snack On EM Debt While Watching The U.S./China Slugfest (6min:49sec) – July 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani discussing the implications of the G20 summit for various EM assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.
Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.
Global Foreign Exchange – Making Selective Non-Dollar Bets – June 25, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
The global economy and investor expectations have been caught between the clash in policy forces of heightened trade tensions and further monetary reflation.
China – Will China Reflate, And What Would It Mean If It Did? – June 19, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Once a month, we review current Chinese macroeconomic indicators for signs of shifting momentum, potential policy adjustments and the outlook for China-related assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Crosscurrents Continue – June 14, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equity and credit markets remain caught between mounting trade tensions, and supportive monetary conditions and positive underlying corporate profitability.
Foreign Exchange – Australian Dollar: A Weak Currency Is Needed – June 14, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fed Props Up EM FX While Growth Fades – June 11, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Protectionist rhetoric has ratcheted higher, dovish developed market central banks are mollifying jittery capital markets while EM assets offer a very attractive carry.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.
Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
· Themes ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.
Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy ·
The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.
China – Preparing For A Digital Iron Curtain – May 22, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Beware the tendency to attribute every twitch in Chinese asset prices to the current tweet on trade.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Protecting Some Profits – May 17, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are protecting profits and downgrading equities to neutral within a multi-asset portfolio, following the powerful run-up in prices this year and recent escalation in trade tensions.
Foreign Exchange – The Yen Is A Hedge Against Political Turmoil -May 17, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.
Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Crowded Trade – May 10, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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South Africa – Underwhelming Politics, But A Disaster Was Avoided – May 9, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
This week’s elections failed to deliver a convincing enough mandate for President Ramaphosa to carry out root-and-branch structural reforms, and while it is difficult to identify a long term winner, the clear loser is private sector investment and job creation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.
Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The Pain Trades Rolls On – April 26, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Central banks, including the Fed, will stay dovish until after better economic data arrives, which bodes well for equities and credit.
Foreign Exchange – Canadian Dollar: Risks Remain High – April 26, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Don’t Short U.S. Corporate Profits – April 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The improvement in the Chinese economy is gaining momentum, and will provide a lift to global activity and support risk asset prices.
Foreign Exchange – Swedish Krona: Cheap, But Structurally Challenged
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Monetary Reflation In A Deleveraging World (12min:30sec) – April 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The mechanics and impact of monetary policy have been heavily debated from the onset of the Great Recession and has heated up again since the Fed whipsawed investors with a massive pivot.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Stabilizing Growth, Easy Liquidity – April 16, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In terms of global liquidity and growth prospects, 2019 is playing out as the reverse of last year: growth is stabilizing and liquidity is plentiful, courtesy of the dovish U-turn.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V – April 12, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. and global ex-U.S. equity prices should hit new highs given our expectation that the tentative turnaround in global trade and manufacturing activity will gain momentum.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro Or The Yen? – April 12, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Signs Of An Economic Inflection Point (9min:18sec) – April 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Fork In The Road – March 29, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The sharp bounce in risk asset prices this quarter is due for a pause. A resumption in the uptrend needs evidence that global economic activity is firming.
Foreign Exchange – Pairing Off Oil-Dependent Currencies – March 29, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflation Top Up – March 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed added additional economic insurance this week, which will cap bond yields, but provide further fuel for risk asset prices.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Desynchronized World – March 18, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has drifted slightly higher on the back of slower global growth and ongoing investor uncertainty about the economic outlook.
Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.
Foreign Exchange – Euro: Waiting For A Catalyst – March 1, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Testing Times – February 15, 2019
· Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some key equity indexes are breaking above resistance levels and high-yield corporate bond spreads are narrowing, which bode well for risk assets.
Policy – Synchronized Moderation Temporarily Halts The Great Monetary Unwind – February 12, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S.-led gradual global monetary unwind has temporarily paused, with the Fed recently moving to the sidelines.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fog Of (Trade) War Is Lifting – February 7, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies’ modest revival since October reflects in part their oversold nature after a torrid mid-year selloff last year.
Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.
Emerging Markets – Latam Play: Brazilian Stocks And Mexican Bonds Will Win – January 31, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Brazil and Mexico typically compete for Latam portfolio flows. Today’s report concludes that investors are likely to rotate into Mexican peso bonds as the relative risk/reward profile has tilted against Brazilian local bonds.
Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It’s Late, But Not Yet Over – January 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent equity market low (high in corporate bond spreads) should hold, but a re-test is still possible.
Foreign Exchange – Euro: Waiting For A Catalyst – January 25, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part II) – January 24, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second of a two-part MRB Theme Report that outlines several non-consensus views about the next global recession and environment
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.
Foreign Exchange – Even “No Brexit” Will Not Fix The Pound – January 18, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Calmer Heads Prevail? – January 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk asset markets overreacted to a modest deterioration in the fundamentals in late-2018.
Foreign Exchange – Stay Long The Japanese Yen – January 11, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Charts – China: Growth Trends Diverge Sharply – January 10, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
A bearish narrative pervades investor interpretation of Chinese economic data
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.
Webcast – Excessive Pessimism Priced In (10min:32sec) – January 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest asset allocation strategy, arguing that markets are discounting an overly bearish economic outlook in 2019.
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Precarious Footing – January 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets are discounting a pronounced further slowdown in global economic growth in 2019, with a significant probability of recession.
Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It Is Either/Or – December 21, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The FOMC (and chair Powell) stumbled in its communication strategy this week.
Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Focus On Cross Rates Rather Than The U.S. Dollar In 2019 – December 14, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Global Foreign Exchange Report – FX Markets: 2019 Outlook – December 11, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar appreciated this year against most currencies, although only modestly despite most variables (including interest rate differentials and relative growth) favoring the currency.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-Off Pressures Ease – November 30, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Worries that the Fed will prematurely turn restrictive have diminished, helping to calm the Treasury market.
Charts – China: Stocks Stir, Will The Economy Follow? – November 26, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Something is stirring in China’s mainland bourses: for the past month the local CSI300 index has been under less pressure than the MSCI China index.
Absolute Return Strategy – Global Economic Stool: Are The Legs Wobbly? – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been hit hard over the past few weeks, with global… Continue
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.
Brazil – Overdone, Or Just Getting Started? – November 20, 2018
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Brazilian stocks, bonds and the Real have all been on a tear since their trough in September, benefitting our overweight positions in EM equity, bond and currency portfolios.
Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back To Gridlock – November 9, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. politics will remain “noisy”, but should have an overall benign impact on the economy and financial markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Excessive Growth Anxiety – November 2, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Last month’s market reaction was largely overdone. That U.S. economic and earnings growth are in the process of peaking which goes without saying given that this year’s fiscal stimulus will fade in 2019.
Webcast – The End Of Cheap Money: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (8min:57sec) – October 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). October 31 after… Continue
Webcast – Bond Yields, Choke Points & Relief Valves (12min:26sec) – October 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Financial markets have been shaken as investors have rapidly adjusted their expectations to reflect a higher bond yield environment.
Charts – China: Talking Up A Recovery – October 24, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
This year’s deceleration of Chinese economic activity is on track, with the epicenter being a sharp retreat in public infrastructure spending.
Theme – Competitive Currency Devaluation Is Ending – October 23, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Competitive currency devaluation was an important theme in the years following the Great Recession when two major global growth engines needed reflating, namely the U.S. and euro area.
South Africa – Circles Or Spirals? – October 23, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
It has been a turbulent year for South African financial assets, starting with a euphoric rally after President Ramaphosa’s victory in December 2017, and then giving back earlier gains as investors’ patience broke in the summer.
Emerging Markets – Brazil and Mexico: A Phoenix, Not A Dragon – October 16, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Factors that caused investors to lose faith with Brazil and Mexico earlier this year are now reversing and both markets are well set to deliver positive absolute and relative performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Bond Yields Reach A Choke Point – October 12, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Euro Italy Is A Headwind Again – October 12, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – A Fresh Test For Investors (8min:45sec) – October 10, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Bond Bear Bites Again – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
The abrupt breakout in U.S. Treasury yields over the past week caught many investors by surprise and sent shockwaves through financial asset markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bond Bear Growls – October 5, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The breakout in U.S Treasury yields represents a fresh challenge to a global economy that has been resilient this year, thanks to ongoing policy support and still-positive cyclical dynamics.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Rebalance For The Rebound – October 4, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies have recently decoupled from the U.S. dollar, forming a tentative bottom despite the dollar’s latest spike.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Message To The Fed: It’s Far From Over – September 28, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A dovish Fed may provide Treasurys with a brief reprieve. However, we remain bearish on bonds: the Fed will ultimately raise rates by more than expected.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – New Zealand Dollar: Further Downside Ahead – September 28, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Is The Worst Over? – September 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
On/off trade worries are again receding, spurring a risk-on phase. The global stock/bond ratio has room to rise, as positive economic fundamentals will persist.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Norwegian Krone: Brief Policy-Induced Bounce – September 21, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Opposing Forces – September 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Once again, there are glimmers of hope on the trade front. A meaningful easing in tensions would signal that the risk-on backdrop in the U.S. will spread abroad.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – A Short-Lived Boost For The GBP – September 14, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Liquidity Fears Are Overdone – September 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Fears of a squeeze on global liquidity are increasing, as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and continues its grad
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Window Of Opportunity – August 31, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Trade tensions have eased a notch, reducing the threat to the global economic expansion. Meanwhile, U.S. and euro area economic indicators point to above-trend growth ahead, which should coincide with another upleg in the global stock/bond ratio.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – NAFTA 2.0 What About The Canadian Dollar – August 31, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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WMS – Foreign Exchange – NAFTA 2.0 And Mexico Bi- or Tri-Lateral – August 31, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Surmounting The Hurdles (Yet Again) – August 24, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth has stabilized at historically solid levels, underscoring that conditions remain supportive of equity markets and bearish for bonds.
Asia Ex-Japan – Yuan Devaluation Risks Are Low – August 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to believe that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) can, and will, support the trade-weighted yuan, which underpins our overweight positions in Asian stocks and currencies within their respective EM portfolios.
A Primer On IMF Rescue Plans: A Turkish Example – August 20, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Turkey is staring at a currency, banking and economic crisis as its access to foreign finance dries up.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-On Or Risk-Off? – August 17, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Turkish meltdown should not have an escalating domino effect on the EM world, nor on overall global economic activity.
Webcast – Will Asia Catch The Turkish Flu? (5min:59sec) – August 15, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast, Adam Wolfe discusses the Turkish currency crisis, China’s exchange rate management issues, and the potential for contagion in Asia.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Gauging The Contagion Risks For EM Asian Currencies – August 14, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
With Turkey on the edge of a currency and financial crisis, fears of contagion have spread to EM Asia.
Global Foreign Exchange Report – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Looking Fatigued – August 13, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
Aggressive U.S. tariffs against Turkey last week, pushed the lira to a new historical low, and provided a lift to the dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Looking To Upgrade Equities – August 10, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Underlying economic and corporate earnings prospects are still positive, but an easing in trade tensions is needed to lift non-U.S. equity market sentiment.
Webcast – EM Currencies’ Trade Tantrum (7min:23sec) – August 8, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for EM currencies after the last few weeks of investor nervousness towards this asset class.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Where There’s Muck, There’s Brass – August 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Three distinct narratives combined earlier this year to buffet EM currencies, albeit on a scale that is rather modest by the standards of 2013’s “Taper Tantrum” and 2014-2015’s commodity price meltdown.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Markets In Limbo – August 3, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets remain in limbo, with key equity, bond and currency benchmarks still largely range-bound.
Webcast – MRB Q&A: Top Questions From Clients (9min:35sec) – July 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins answers some of the key client questions we have recently received, ranging from the impact of trade protectionism on investment strategy to the outlook for gold.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Policy Debate Stokes Yuan Fears – July 24, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Any forthcoming monetary easing is likely to be less than is already discounted by the markets, while a loosening of the fiscal screws should provide support for the yuan.
Latam – Latin America: Short Term Pain Will Give Way To Long Term Gain – July 19, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Latam financial assets have been buffeted by the combination of rising global protectionist threats and self-inflicted wounds in Argentina, Brazil and until recently, Mexico.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – No Blinking So Far – July 13, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The trade war has not de-escalated. Thus, equity prices will remain at risk in the near run, and bond prices will stay supported.
Webcast – Will The U.S. Dollar Rally Continue? (6min:18sec) – July 11, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB provides some highlights about our investment stance on the greenback and whether the current rally will continue.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Churn Continues – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report revisits three topics that continue to be heavily debated and which we believe investors are focused inappropriately.
Webcast – The China Syndrome: Containment Or Contagion? (6min:29sec) – July 4, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Adam Wolfe discusses the recent weakness in the Chinese yuan and Chinese stock prices.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Yuan Depreciation Will Be Contained – July 3, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Those looking for a ray of hope in an otherwise gloomy investment landscape can point to the fact that a 3.3% decline in the yuan against the U.S. dollar in June
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – GBP: Further Depreciation Ahead – June 22, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Identifying The EM Babies Thrown Out With The Bathwater (8min:14sec) – June 20, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Wednesday Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani examines the recent selloff in EM currencies and bonds and looks for potential mispricing associated with the negative market narrative.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Hawks And Doves – June 15, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The U.S. economy is reaccelerating and we expect the Fed will lift its forecast for the longer-run equilibrium rate by yearend, given the ongoing upcycle in core inflation and wage growth.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – The Japanese Yen Versus The Australian Dollar – June 15, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Euro Area: Cyclical Vs Structural Outlook (13min:54sec) – June 13, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 13 after… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Asia Policy Round Up: Gearing Up For The 2019 Elections – June 12, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
The U.S. dollar’s recent appreciation has bifurcated monetary policy across South and Southeast Asia.
Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part II): Structurally Flawed – June 11, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series which provides a broader perspective of the cyclical and structural crosscurrents facing the euro area.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Wobbly Leg? – June 8, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recent weakness in some euro area economic indicators should soon give way to stability.
WMS – Foreign Exchnage – Euro: Cheap, And No Longer Overbought – June 8, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part I): Cyclically Resilient – June 7, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Several headwinds have hit the euro area in recent months, making investors question if the steady improvements recorded last year have given way to something more ominous.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Is The Trade Tide Turning? – June 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies almost always deliver decent returns to global investors when there is a positive global trade cycle, and rarely do so when global trade decelerates.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Can 1997 Happen Again? – June 5, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
U.S. dollar appreciation since April has exposed balance-sheet weaknesses in a handful of EMs, sparking fears of a currency crisis and contagion.
Absolute Return Strategy – Into The Endgame – May 30, 2018
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Global equities have swung wildly this year. Our base-case view is that recent selling pressure will prove to be a setback, rather than the start of a bear market.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Navigating The Political Risks In Southeast Asia – May 29, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
After a shock election result, the new government in Malaysia has been grappling with the hidden fiscal weakness left behind by the previous, deeply corrupt ruling coalition.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Lot Of Churning – May 25, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty remain elevated, which will continue to hold back the global stock/bond ratio in the near run.
Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
· Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes ·
Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Sifting Through The Brazilian Rubble – May 25, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Japanese Yen Bulls: A Long-Term Relationship – May 18, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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WMS – Emerging Markets – Rising Treasury Yields And The Dollar: Tougher Times For Some EM Currencies – May 18, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – FX Roadmap: What To Expect (9min:43sec) – May 16, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar focus on MRB’s latest thematic research and its implications for the U.S. dollar and major developed market currencies over the next few years.
Theme – The Trade And Reserve Currency Systems At Risk – May 15, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
The global trading system that is a holdover from the 1944 Bretton Woods conference has passed its sell-by date.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More Churning, But The Cycle Remains Intact – May 11, 2018
· Commodities · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. inflationary pressures continue to slowly build, and emergency-level interest rates outside of the U.S. are no longer warranted.
Foreign Exchange Report – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in the near run.
Theme – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Cash Is King – May 4, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The crosscurrents of a moderation in global growth momentum, combined with ongoing Fed rate hikes, rising U.S. inflation, and looming U.S. protectionist measures, portends continued churning in global capital markets in the near term.
Webcast – The Next Global Recession: The Canaries Are Coughing (8min:54sec) – May 3, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The U.S.-led government bond bear market has taken many investors by surprise this year, causing a shakeout in equities and increased market volatility.
Russia – The Ruble And Ruble Bonds: Safe Bet Or Russian Roulette? – May 3, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Russian financial assets were hit last month by the expansion of U.S.-imposed sanctions, and while this hurt our overweight positions on Russia within EM currency and fixed-income portfolios
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Can Stocks Weather Higher Bond Yields? – April 27, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some positive economic surprises this week suggest that global growth is likely to prove resilient.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Canadian Dollar: Risks Are High – April 27, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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South Africa – Ramaphoria, The Rand, And Related Assets – April 24, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
South Africa woke up from the long nightmare of the profoundly corrupt presidency of Jacob Zuma, marked by “state capture”, feeble growth and spiralling public debt, and staged a euphoric rally to welcome President Ramaphosa.
Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Confidence Hold? – April 20, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is cooling after last year’s mini-boom, but a sizable slowdown is unlikely, provided trade tensions do not escalate.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – The Swedish Krona: Upside Will Now Be Limited – April 20, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Currency Intervention In China And Hong Kong (6min:05sec) – April 18, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Adam Wolfe discusses central bank currency intervention in China and Hong Kong.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Maintain A Neutral Stance On The U.S. Dollar – April 13, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Reassuringly Boring, For Now – April 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
When global trade is expanding, accidents rarely occur for EM currencies as a whole.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Many Moving (i.e. Conflicting) Parts – April 6, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
A moderation in growth momentum, combined with additional Fed rate hikes and, more recently, the escalating trade battle between the U.S. and China, implies continuing market volatility and warrants near-term caution toward risk assets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More To Go – March 29, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Heightened geopolitical tensions and stock-specific woes in the tech sector will keep equity markets weak in the near run.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – The Japanese Yen Appreciates In Volatile Times – March 29, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Asia Ex-Japan – Is A Trade War Brewing? – March 27, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
Proposed U.S. tariffs on about US$60 bn worth of Chinese imports roiled Asian markets at the end of last week.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Slippery Slope – March 23, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent risk-off phase was initially driven by rising bond yields, but now fears of protectionism have moved to the forefront. Barring an escalating trade war, we expect the pause in bond yields and correction in equity prices to reverse beyond the near run.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Favor The Norwegian Krone Over The Canadian Dollar – March 23, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Mexico – A Populist Win In Mexico, Thanks to Trump – March 20, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Mexico will elect a new president on 1 July, and the runaway front-runner is an old-school populist with a long track record of incendiary and hyper-leftist positions, who failed on his two previous attempts to win the presidency.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Tug-Of-War – March 16, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rise in bond yields and equity prices is on temporary hold: growth momentum will slow a notch and protectionist concerns may keep some investors cautious, yet the cyclical buildup of inflation pressures will persist
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Differentiating Among Export-Oriented Currencies – March 16, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Charts – The Great Monetary Unwind: Case By Case Basis – March 13, 2018
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed has led the global monetary unwind over the past couple of years, but an increased number of central banks have either joined or are preparing to do so in the months or year ahead.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Choppiness Will Persist In The Near Term – March 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets will continue to be in flux in the near term given uncertainty about the inflation and interest rate outlook as well as fresh policy risks, including the recent U.S. protectionist measures.
Theme – Isolationism: Sadism Or Masochism? – March 8, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The threat of a U.S.-led trade war has been lurking since President Trump was elected and has now moved to the forefront of investor worries as the first shot may soon be fired.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still In Flux – March 2, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity market correction has not yet run its course. On a positive note, the relative resilience of global financial stocks bodes well for another rally phase in the overall stock market
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Equities: Time To Go Underweight Or Overweight? – February 23, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The correction in risk assets will probably persist in the near run.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Fed Become Hemmed-In? – February 16, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Further near-run turbulence in risk asset markets is probable until bond yields plateau.
Latam – Another Good Year Ahead – February 15, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Latam financial assets mildly underperformed their EM counterparts last year. However, the outlook… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – The U.S. Dollar Is Lacking Friends – February 13, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports There is a case for a bounce in the U.S. dollar from oversold… Continue
U.S. Equities – Higher Volatility: It’s The Fundamentals – February 13, 2018
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Volatility has reared its ugly head in the past two weeks, suddenly bolting… Continue
Webcast – The Correction Must Run Its Course (8min:50sec) – February 7, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 7 after… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Protecting Profits – February 5, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Two of the risk factors that we have been monitoring to time an… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue
Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:56sec) – January 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). January 31 after… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 30, 2018
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The High-Wire Act Continues – January 26, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The backdrop remains bond-bearish. Meanwhile, technical and valuation measures are progressively deteriorating for equities, particularly in the U.S.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Stay Long The Euro Vs The Pound – January 26, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Charts – A Weak U.S. Dollar Will Benefit Non-U.S. Equity Markets – January 25, 2018
· Equities ·
The recent divergence between the performance of the U.S. dollar and regional equity market relative returns in common currency terms is unsustainable.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Into The Extrapolation Phase – January 19, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investors are discounting positive earnings trends well into the future, but have not yet made a parallel adjustment to their interest rate expectations.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Euro: Lots To Like, But It Is Now Overbought – January 19, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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WMS – Foreign Exchange– U.S. Dollar: Stay Selectively Overweight – January 12, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Four-Legged Stool: One Too Many? – January 12, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain bearish on bonds and positive on the stock/bond ratio, but acknowledge that equity risks are increasing, with sentiment readings at their most frothy levels of the decade.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – A Favorable Tide, But Some Pesky Headwinds -January 11, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We recommend investors maintain overweights on EM currencies which are supported by the global trade revival
Asset Allocation Strategy –Risk Assessment: It’s Still Too Soon To Bail – January 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic and policy outlook remains positive for risk assets and we remain moderately overweight equities versus government bonds in a multi-asset portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Betting Against the Consensus – December 22, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global stock/bond ratio has more upside, but mostly because bonds will generate negative returns rather than due to huge equity gains in 2018.
WMS – Foreign Exchange– Stay Positive On The Euro Over The Pound – December 22, 2017
Foreign Exchange ·
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South Africa – All Gain, No Pain (Yet) – December 21, 2017
· Emerging Markets ·
The rand has been one of the most popular EM assets in recent weeks as the market forecasted (correctly) that Mr. Ramaphosa would win the ANC leadership race.
Webcast – MRB’s Best Long-Term Bets (7min:39sec) – December 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines several of MRB’s multi-year investment recommendations.
Chile – Copper Trumps Politics – December 20, 2017
· Emerging Markets ·
The Chilean peso has significantly lagged copper prices since the start of the year, suggesting that domestic factors, namely weak growth earlier this year and politics more recently, have weighed on the currency in 2017.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Another Small Step, But Staying Behind The Curve – December 15, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The U.S. and euro area economies continue to strengthen, which will sustain better global trade.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.