Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020


foreign-exchange

 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.



 

Economy – Second COVID-19 Wave Heightens Euro Area Economic Uncertainty – October 16, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.



 

Foreign Exchange – Stick With The Yen In An Uncertain World – October 9, 2020
Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.



 

Foreign Exchange – The Multi-Year Case For The Euro – September 22, 2020
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The recent spike in euro area daily cases of COVID-19 has reignited economic pessimism, which has triggered a risk-off phase and bounce in the dollar, halting the rally in the euro.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.



 

Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

China – Torrid Recovery Will Ease Off – September 8, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

China’s growth trajectory can be broken down into two components.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.



 

Foreign Exchange – Is U.S. Dollar Weakness Nearly Over? – August 28, 2020
Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts · 

Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.



 

Fixed Income / Foreign Exchange – U.K. Risks Warrant Cautious Positioning – August 21, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.



 

Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.



 

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.



 

Fixed Income/Foreign Exchange – Second COVID-19 Wave Hits Australia – July 31, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.



 

South Africa – Saved By The Fed, For Now – July 30, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

The IMF threw South Africa a lifeline this week and opened the door to other multilateral loans to deal with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.