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China – Don’t Fear “Chinese Deflation” – September 12, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
An entrenched negative narrative about China’s economy, together with manifest difficulties for steel, coal and cement producers reeling from the housing sector recession…
Webcast – The Center Will Hold – (11min:49sec) – September 11, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation on a 6-12 month horizon.
Global Foreign Exchange – Fed-Induced U.S. Dollar Weakness For Now – September 5, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The shift to increasingly dovish guidance by the Fed has translated into a narrowing of interest rate differentials with other currencies, leading to generalized U.S. dollar weakness in recent months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Cooler Heads Prevailing – August 16, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic expansion remains intact and will benefit from aggressive DM rate-cutting expectations.
Weekly Macro Strategy – When The Dust Settles – August 9, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run financial market outlook is clouded by the abrupt souring in investor sentiment related to increased bearishness on the U.S. economic outlook.
China – Stocks In A Funk Despite Earnings Turnaround – August 8, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
The Third Plenum came and went last month, with lengthy speeches about the economy and no actionable insight.
Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: Risks Are Skewed To The Downside – July 30, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has been range-bound for almost two years, albeit with some bouts of strength but only against interest rate-sensitive or weak-link currencies and the yen.
China – Might Earnings Be Turning The Corner? – July 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
The PBoC now claims that it wants to see higher bond yields, although it is not obvious whether such an outcome is in their gift.
Webcast – Summer Grind – (10min:16sec) – July 10, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Foreign Exchange – Cryptocurrencies Are Vulnerable Once Again – July 9, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The key macro narrative that has supported cryptos in recent years has been that the Fed (and other central banks) have neglected sticky inflation…
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Dog That Didn’t Bark – July 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The U.S. economy is downshifting from its prior brisk pace, but forecasts of an impending period of outright weakness or even recession are misplaced.
Absolute Return Strategy – Three Investment Themes – July 2, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
This report reviews three key long-term investment themes, including A.I. plays, beneficiaries of the global trade cycle, and areas where economic growth is likely to surprise either to the upside or downside.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Riding The Coattails Of Improving Global Trade – June 20, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM domestic growth and policy drivers are already supportive of EMFX, and many EM currencies have appreciated against the U.S. dollar over the past 12-18 months.
China – Economic Momentum Firms – June 13, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Investors taking note of the firming of China’s economic momentum will probably be rewarded by placing their bets on this recovery outside the country for the time being.
Global Foreign Exchange – Headed Into Generalized U.S. Dollar Weakness – June 11, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. economy remains resilient and growth concerns in May proved to be premature.
EM Elections – Smoke But No Fire, Yet – June 7, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
It has been a busy political calendar for emerging markets over the past week, with elections in India, Mexico and South Africa all delivering surprising results and sharp selloffs.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The End Is Not Nigh – June 7, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
While the catalyst for an end of the economic expansion is not yet in place, the investment landscape is likely to be choppy over the next 6-12 months…
Long-Term Returns – A Reckoning Is Inevitable – May 30, 2024
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This old saw is especially relevant as the macro drivers of strong capital market returns over most of the past 40 years no longer pertain.
Webinar – Emerging Markets: Navigating Global Cross Currents – (61min:41sec) – May 22, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
As the global trade cycle recovers and China’s growth firms, the backdrop for EM assets appears solid.
Webcast – Favor Interest Resilient Vs Interest Rate Vulnerable Currencies – (6min:45sec) – May 15, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This week’s Webcast expands upon the main takeaways from last week’s foreign exchange research highlight…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Resilience, Rotation And Divergences – May 10, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy is slowly improving, led by the still-strong U.S. Although the DM weak-link economies have slowed, they are not yet signaling undue stress.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning In Choppy Energy Markets – May 10, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are a few changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN… Continue
Foreign Exchange – The Global Trade Upswing Supports Export-Driven Currencies – May 8, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
A revival in global trade has historically translated into currency appreciation for export-driven economies for both developed and emerging markets.
Webcast – The Economy, Not The Fed Will Drive Markets – (13min:02sec) – May 7, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Bank On Fed Rate Cuts – May 3, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Swings in expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to drive global capital market performance.
Absolute Return – Capitalizing On G7 Central Bank Missteps And Divergences – May 2, 2024
Absolute Return · · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
Many investors and strategists focus far too much attention on reading the proverbial tea leaves of central banks (particularly the Federal Reserve) to decipher how policymakers intend to shift interest rates.
Webcast – Has The Yen Finally Found A Floor? – (7min:27sec) – April 30, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This week’s Webcast delves into our latest thoughts on the Japanese yen as there is growing speculation of currency intervention by the Japanese authorities this week.
Webcast – Sticky CPI Inflation Is Here To Stay – (7min:08sec) – April 25, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This week’s Webcastis an extension of a charts report published early this month. The report examined the trends in CPI in the developed world (DM)…
China – Earnings Are Lagging The Economy – April 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
In the face of near-universal bearishness among the chattering classes overseas about its economic prospects…
Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…
Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Free Money Era Is Officially Over – March 22, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Further near-run upside is probable in risk asset markets.
Webcast – The Effects Of Higher Interest Rates On Currency Performance – (8min:12sec) – March 20, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This week’s Webcast covers the highlights of last week’s global foreign exchange report.
Global Foreign Exchange – Selective U.S. Dollar Underperformance – March 12, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has recently softened, after appreciating briefly in January and early-February.
China – CSI 300 Stocks Are Stirring – March 7, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Although the U.S. stock market continues to outperform all its foreign competitors, including China, this performance has been driven by the extraordinary gains of a handful of mega-cap stocks that carry significant valuation risk.
Absolute Return Strategy – Time To Diversify – March 5, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The economic and policy environment remains supportive of pro-growth investments, but the rally is not without risks.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Export Revival Heralds EMFX Outperformance – February 29, 2024
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Investors have been operating under the assumption that stronger U.S. growth (and subsequently higher U.S. Treasury yields) inevitably leads to weaker EM currencies, judging by recent negative correlation between the two.
Webcast – Will Higher-For-Longer Inflation Benefit The Yen? – (6min:21sec) – February 21, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses the outlook for the Japanese yen based on last week’s research highlight.
Foreign Exchange – The Japanese Yen Is Bound To Break Its Trap – February 15, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The BoJ indicated last week that Japan’s economy is at a crucial turning point for overcoming deflation.
China – Defibrillator Applied To Equities, Again – February 8, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese policymakers have once again applied the defibrillator to stock market sentiment.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…
Foreign Exchange – Taking The Pulse Of Weak-Link Currencies – February 1, 2024
· Foreign Exchange ·
The list of weak-link currencies includes the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Norwegian krone, Swedish krona and U.K. pound.
Absolute Return Strategy – From “Soft Landing” To “No Landing” – January 18, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The equity and bond market are both priced for a Goldilocks U.S. economic outcome that is unlikely to persist as the year progresses.
China – Reform Chatter Fails To Inspire Investors (So Far) – January 11, 2024
· Emerging Markets ·
Two recent events have raised the prospect that Chinese policymakers might be inclined to bite the bullet on significant structural reform.
Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2023 Review – January 9, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Demand, Corporate Profitability, And Inflation Are All Resilient – December 15, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The deceleration in DM inflation will peter out with underlying inflation still well above central bank targets if the global economic expansion rolls on, as we expect.
2024 Absolute Return Outlook – Focus On The Tails – December 14, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
2023 has turned out to be a rollercoaster for financial asset markets, with investors flipflopping on the recession call and outlook for policy rates.
Webcast – Focus On Diverging Macro Trends For FX Strategy In 2024 – (7min:33sec) – December 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses the big-picture macro theme for 2024 and its ramifications for foreign exchange strategy.
2024 China Outlook – Steady Growth Ahead – December 7, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Although few headlines in the financial media reflect this, 2023 was a year of solid, if patchy, economic growth momentum in China, which is closing out well ahead of mid-year consensus expectations.
2024 Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Outlook – Clearer Skies Ahead – December 5, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
EM currencies were resilient this year in the face of several exogenous headwinds, including rising U.S. Treasury yields…
2024 Asset Allocation Outlook – A Maturing Cycle, But The End Is Not Yet Nigh – December 1, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
A global or U.S. recession is not yet in the cards for 2024, although the lifespan of the economic expansion is inevitably shortening.
2024 Foreign Exchange Outlook – A Less U.S. Dollar Centric Year – November 30, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has had a volatile year with the most recent depreciation wiping out all of this year’s gains.
Webinar – EM ex-China Behind The Wheel, China In The Backseat – (59min:33sec) – November 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webinar Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek addressed the outlook for EM assets in absolute and relative terms over the coming 6-12 months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
China – Growth: Half-Full, Or Half-Empty? – November 9, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Chinese household consumption is the new version of the analogy of the glass being half full or empty.
Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro Will Continue To Appreciate Versus Weak-Link Currencies – November 7, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
While it has not been an easy year for the euro, the currency has still managed to appreciate versus key weak-link currencies, in line with our projections.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…
Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
China – Recovery Steps Up A Notch – October 12, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
What will it take for foreign investors to shake off their bearishness on Chinese assets?
Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.
Charts – Are The Global Weak Links About To Snap? – October 4, 2023
Economics & Policy · Themes ·
We are highlighting a chartpack on global weak-link economies with household sector excesses, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K.
Mexico – Deglobalization And The Peso: Fact Versus Fiction – October 3, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Shifts in global supply chains have been one of the main characteristics of the current era of multipolarity and deglobalization.
Foreign Exchange – An Oil-Neutral Bet Levered To Europe: Long NOK/Short CAD – September 26, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have decoupled from the rebound in oil prices in recent months.
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Will EM Rate Cuts End The Party? – September 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies will appreciate versus the dollar as investors come around to MRB’s no US. recession view and shift their focus to positive EM domestic currency drivers, namely strengthening relative growth momentum.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.
Global Foreign Exchange – Distinguishing Between Winners And Losers – September 14, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has regained strength over the past two months supported by rising interest rate differentials and stronger relative growth on the back of a further unwinding of U.S. recession fears.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Canada – Housing: Sliding Down The Slippery Slope Of Hope – September 8, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
A massive Canadian housing bubble has been inflated in response to more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.
Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.
Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.
Webcast – Hopes Dashed By Lack Of A China Property Bailout – (5min:45sec) – August 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani ran through some recent developments in China which have triggered a material market reaction.
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.
China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…
Webcast – Gold Bulls: Beware Higher Real Bond Yields – (6min:41sec) – August 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses MRB’s outlook for gold prices in the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.
Commodities – Just Another Short-Lived Rally For Gold – July 26, 2023
· Commodities ·
Gold prices have rebounded modestly this month, and briefly neared the top end of their post-pandemic trading range…
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Rate Cuts Are Coming – July 20, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
With conditions falling into place for a softening in the U.S. dollar’s cross rate with major DM currencies…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.
MRB TradeBook – Long Energy And Japanese Financials – July 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports
China – Undervalued And Unloved, But Undeniably Growing – July 13, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Second-quarter earnings results are about to start rolling in, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.
Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk-On Until Bond Yields Breakout – July 6, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks and investors have begun capitulating closer to our view that the cost of capital has not yet reached destabilizing levels.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…
Foreign Exchange – Interest Rate Differentials Are Not Helping The U.K. Pound – June 30, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…
Foreign Exchange – The Euro Is Regaining Strength To Start The Summer – June 23, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Webcast – China: Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – (7min:40sec) – June 21, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.
China – Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – June 15, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.
Foreign Exchange – Patience Is Key For The Japanese Yen – June 13, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The yen has faced renewed selling pressure in recent weeks…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.
Foreign Exchange – The AUD Could Receive A Temporary Boost, But Remains Structurally Challenged – June 9, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Mixed Signals = Overweight On Cash – June 2, 2023
Asset Allocation ·
Markets are providing decidedly mixed signals about the economic outlook, highlighting investor uncertainty.
Webcast – Stay Selective With The U.S. Dollar – (8min:04sec) – June 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets based on the just-published global foreign exchange report.
Global Foreign Exchange – No Recession = A Short-Lived U.S. Dollar Revival – May 31, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has regained some strength in recent weeks on the back of the unwinding of oversold conditions and persistent recession fears that have led to a churning global stock market which has benefited defensive currencies.
Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Come For The Growth, Stay For The Rate Cuts – May 25, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The case for holding EM currencies is primarily predicated on their association with stronger growth and fewer risks to growth than their DM peers.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Late Cycle: Leaning Against The Consensus Yet Again – May 18, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The economic expansion has matured, and the investment cycle is now late.
Webcast – China: Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – (7min:10sec) – May 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.
Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.
Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
· Economics & Policy ·
This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.
Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.
Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.
China – A “New” China: Growth Without Stimulus, Exports Or Housing – April 6, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
China’s reopening and economic recovery is finally observable in the hard economic data, rather than only from surveys.
Foreign Exchange – Higher Interest Rates Will Snap The Weak Link Currencies – April 4, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
Weak-link economies are at increasing risk of experiencing a recession triggered by higher borrowing rates.
Theme – Making Money During China’s Demographic Decline – March 21, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Themes ·
China’s official population count for 2022 was published in January and showed 9.6m births, outweighed by 10.4m deaths.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Better Growth Supports EM Currency Appreciation – March 16, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to see good odds of improving global growth conditions this year, with a reopening in China now gaining momentum…
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.
China – Surveys Show Recovery, Hard Data Will Follow – March 9, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
“Soft” data from surveys are showing China’s robust recovery is underway, but the usual seasonal distortions in hard data make it difficult to calibrate the implications for overall economic momentum for the time being.
Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Global Foreign Exchange – A Different Year For The U.S. Dollar – March 7, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S dollar decline has stabilized as of late on the back of a further rise in U.S. interest rates compared to other markets and related risk-off phase.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.
Foreign Exchange – Gold Or Cryptos: Which One Is More Appealing? – February 21, 2023
· Foreign Exchange ·
The pause in bond yields late last year encouraged global equity investors to embrace risk-on across the board…
Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.
Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.
Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.
Foreign Exchange – Euro: Digesting Its Early Gains – February 10, 2023
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
China – Services Rebound, Broader Consumption Should Follow – February 9, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
The traditional travel boom during the Lunar New Year holiday period took place in January…
Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.
Korea – Export Recovery Papers The Cracks, For Now – January 26, 2023
· Emerging Markets ·
Korea’s equity market massively underperformed emerging market peers (EM), leaving valuations at extremely attractive levels…
Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2022 Review – January 24, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Will Break Free Of The Dollar’s Chokehold In 2023 – January 12, 2023
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic unleashed a dizzying array of global economic forces that have dominated the EM currency landscape.
Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.
China – Re-Opening Is Palpable, If Not Yet Measurable – January 5, 2023
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
High frequency data and anecdotal evidence suggest that Chinese workers and consumers are shaking off the tsunami of infections arising from the sudden abandonment of the COVID-zero policy.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – December 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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2023 China Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…
2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…
Global Foreign Exchange – 2023 FX Outlook: Selectivity Will Be Key – November 29, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
A successful FX strategy in 2023 will entail a major change in tactics, as oversold and undervalued currencies are set to regain strength against the historically overextended U.S. dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.
Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;
Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.
Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.
China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.
Foreign Exchange – Favor The Euro Versus Currencies In Weak Link Economies – November 2, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The backdrop for the euro area could become much brighter than is currently anticipated…
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can EM Continue To Outperform DM (ex-U.S.)? – October 20, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is king. To be fair, this has been the case only for the fourth time since the early-1970s
Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
Webcast – Elevated Inflation Has Made Central Banks Blindly Hawkish – (5min:00sec) – October 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, we discuss monetary policy based on last week’s MRB Research Highlight, that “tighter” monetary policy is still required in the developed world.
Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.
Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.
Brazil – Defying Gravity – October 10, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Brazilian assets rallied after last week’s general election as the worst-case scenario for financial markets, in which former President Lula secures a first-round victory, was avoided. Therefore, the favorable relative growth backdrop which has been driving outperformance will remain intact.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.
China – Baby Steps To Evolving COVID-Zero – October 6, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
It may still only be a baby step, and by global standards it is a barely perceptible one.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.
Webcast – Growth Concerns Are Driving Currencies – (11min:22sec) – September 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa focuses on currency trends in the developed markets, leveraging some of the research in this month’s global foreign exchange report.
Global Foreign Exchange – Recession Fears Are Driving Currencies – September 14, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The dominant driver for FX markets shifted in recent months from interest rate differentials
Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.
China – Pragmatic Policy In Hibernation – September 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 until 1992, famously said “no matter if it is a white cat or a black cat, so long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat”
Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.
Foreign Exchange – The Swiss Franc: Benefiting From European Angst – September 1, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
This year has been characterized by defensive currency positioning given heightened investor anxiety.
Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices
Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
· Themes ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.
Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.
China – COVID-Zero Implies Continuing Economic Pain – August 4, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Prospects for a strong reopening recovery in China are evaporating in the face of the authorities’ obstinate attachment to a COVID-zero policy
Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
· Themes ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.
Foreign Exchange – Euro: Short-Term Negative, But Long-Term Positive – July 15, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Finding Shelter From The Dollar’s Chokehold – July 13, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The dominance of the U.S. dollar has become so pervasive in EM currency markets that allocations to EM offer very little diversification in a global currency portfolio
China – When Will Reopening Lift Earnings? – July 7, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
With signs of economic reopening, foreign investors have been piling back into Chinese stocks in recent weeks, having rushed for the exits in prior months during the peak of lockdowns.
Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Recession Or Resilience? – July 1, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Anxiety about the global growth outlook will persist in the near term, resulting in choppy capital market conditions and room for bond yields to retreat at least mildly further.
Commodities – Gold Over Crypto As Liquidity Boom Ends – June 28, 2022
· Commodities · Foreign Exchange ·
Although gold and bitcoin have been promoted as hedges against inflation and fiat currency debasement, there is still no clear correlation in the performance of the two.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets
MRB TradeBook Update – More Volatility – June 24, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Canada – Rising Interest Rates Threaten The Canadian Goose – June 22, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report updates our latest views on the Canadian economy, particularly its interest rate sensitivity.
Webcast – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Extended But Propped Up By Risk-Off – (7min:58sec) – June 21, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Santiago Espinosa provides our latest analysis of the U.S. dollar and global currency markets.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy During A Bond Market Riot – June 15, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
While we expect worries of a recession and investor angst to stay elevated in the second half of this year
Webcast – Chinese Lockdowns Creating Pent-up Demand – (8min:58sec) – June 15, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani examines the outlook for China’s economy and markets in the context of renewed lockdowns imposed on Beijing and Shanghai in recent days
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.
Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
· Themes ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
China – The Stock Bounce Has Begun – June 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
A much-anticipated positive shift in sentiment towards Chinese stocks appears to have begun, supported by easier liquidity conditions
Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth
Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
· Asset Allocation · Equities ·
The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.
Foreign Exchange – A Reality Check For Cryptos – May 20, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – China: How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – (7min:47sec) – May 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for China’s economy and markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.
Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.
China – How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – May 5, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese stocks and its currency have been buffeted by the fallout from draconian lockdowns that have spread out from the major trade hubs of the country during the course of March and April.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Opportunity Lost, Or Just Delayed? – April 28, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Since the uncertainties unleashed by the eruption of the COVID-19 pandemic at the beginning of 2020
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Adding Or Cutting Exposure? – April 26, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The euro has recently been weighed down by ongoing geopolitical turmoil within Europe, as well as the moderation in regional and global growth in response to the war in Ukraine.
Roundtable – Emerging Market Winners And Losers From The Russia/Ukraine War – (67min:04sec) – April 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing some of the geopolitical considerations arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.
Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar: Short Vs Long Term Outlook – April 7, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The macro backdrop has been more supportive for the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies this year.
Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.
Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.
Global Foreign Exchange – The Impact Of Geopolitics On FX Strategy – March 17, 2022
· Foreign Exchange ·
The shunning of Russia from the global economy has heightened market volatility and created a dent in economic sentiment
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.
Webcast – Looking Beyond The 0-1 Geopolitical Bet – (10min:42sec) – March 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and investment strategy for the next 6-12 months in the context of the Ukraine war.
Latam – Will Latam Win The Russia/Ukraine War? – March 8, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The Russia/Ukraine war is undoubtedly a near-term headwind for Latin America’s financial assets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.
Russia – Becomes Uninvestable – March 1, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
The sanctions announced in Europe on Saturday, including partial restrictions on Russia’s access to SWIFT and the freezing of the central bank’s (BoR) foreign assets will ultimately lead to Russian recession.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Breaking From The Dollar Yoke – February 22, 2022
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Weekly Macro Strategy – From Distorting To Reflective To Restrictive – February 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cyclically bearish on bonds, although yields could soon pause; conditions are becoming technically stretched and U.S. rate expectations have already ratcheted higher.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Limited Downside And Improving Fundamentals – February 18, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – COVID Fades: The Impact Of Reopening – (9min:03sec) – February 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses what the unwinding of the pandemic means for the global economy, policy, and investment strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – End Of COVID And Free Money – February 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The two themes that will be crucial in shaping the global macro environment this year are the fading of COVID as a meaningful restraint on global mobilit
Webcast – The Ebbing Liquidity Wave – (9min:33sec) – February 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months highlight.
Foreign Exchange – Competitive Currency Appreciation Ahead – February 10, 2022
Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
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Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity-Based Currencies: Where Are The Opportunities? – February 8, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
Developed commodity-based currencies have decoupled from the rebound in commodity prices in recent months.
China – Limping Into The Tiger – February 8, 2022
Emerging Markets ·
Appropriately enough, as the world celebrates the lunar new year, both bravery and unpredictability are the Tiger’s hallmarks in the Chinese zodiac.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.
Webcast – The ECB Will Follow The Fed’s Pivot – (9min:04sec) – February 1, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses the next big central bank surprise, namely a pivot from the ECB, which will have major ramifications across asset classes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.
Foreign Exchange – FX Portfolio Insurance – January 28, 2022
Foreign Exchange ·
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Euro Area – The Coming “Hawkish” Turn At The ECB – January 26, 2022
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
We expect the ECB will follow the Fed’s pivot later in 2022, and also begin the path to normalize policy thereafter.
Webcast – As Go Bonds, So Will Go Risk Assets – (8min:35sec) – January 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended global multi-asset positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.
China – Don’t Fight The PBoC – January 6, 2022
· Emerging Markets ·
Monetary policies will continue to diverge between China and other major economies, which will have a number of investment implications over the next 12 months.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.
Global Foreign Exchange – Currency Strategy For 2022 – December 21, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report highlights MRB’s currency strategy for next year.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – 2022 EM Currency Outlook: Stay With Quality – December 20, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Given the strength of the global economic expansion and the recovery of mobility measures as the COVID-19 pandemic fitfully recedes as a primary economic threat
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.
Policy – Emergency Monetary Policy Is No Longer Required – December 8, 2021
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the central banks in the developed world, as well as supporting charts.
China – The Coming Consumption/Policy-Led Recovery – December 7, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
After an eventful year of widespread policy interventions that dragged growth from above-trend to its current below-trend pace, a modest policy stimulus is set to recalibrate China’s growth prospects in the months ahead.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.
Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns
Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.
Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets
Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets
China – The Rattle Of Regulatory Change Continues – November 4, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
2021 has been the year of regulatory change in China, starting with a forced deleveraging in the real estate sector, followed by a crackdown on very large internet-related stocks aimed at limiting monopolistic behavior, improving labor rights and protecting data privacy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Time To Focus More On Quality – October 28, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
It is relatively rare for the U.S. dollar to strengthen at the same time as Treasury yields rise
Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.
Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.
Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue
Japan – An Underdog Story – October 19, 2021
· Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
After a rocky welcome by the markets, newly-appointed PM Fumio Kishida is starting to enjoy positive public support.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.
Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar: Short-Term Resilience, But… – October 8, 2021
Foreign Exchange ·
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China – Policy Bandwidth Is Being Overwhelmed – October 7, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese policymakers were probably hoping to take their victory lap during last week’s national holidays, after reducing excess leverage and nipping a housing bubble in the bud.
Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy
Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.
Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.
Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue
Webcast – FX: Positioning Around A Weak U.S. Dollar Forecast – (10min:11sec) – September 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa highlights MRB’s FX strategy
Global Foreign Exchange – Strategy For Resilient Global Growth – September 16, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report highlights that our overarching macro view remains unchanged as we expect the global economy to surprise on the upside over the next year even as growth and trade moderate.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.
China – Redistribution, Not Stimulus, Is The Opportunity – September 9, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Investors are in danger of misconstruing two current developments in China.
Webcast – Transitioning From Maximum Growth And Policy Thrust – (9min:37sec) – September 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the shifting macro and policy backdrop and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Will Get Tougher From Here – September 3, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Two important shifts in the macro climate over the next 6-12 months point to lower investment returns and more painful corrections, which will challenge current trends in capital markets.
Foreign Exchange – Swiss Franc & Yen: Defensive Non-USD Insurance – August 31, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Angst about a potential setback in reopening due to the COVID-19 Delta variant is causing investors to question the global economic outlook.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Dollar Is Still King… Of EM FX Performance – August 26, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
While the ebb and flow of U.S. dollar sentiment will continue to tug at the performance of EM currencies, the overall global trade and economic backdrop over the next year will be supportive of modest dollar weakness
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative
Emerging Markets – Stuttering Growth May Buffet The Weakest EM Currencies – August 19, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Policymakers in developed economies have dismissed rising inflation as merely “transitory”, but their counterparts in the EM world have already embarked on a rate hiking cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade Ahead – August 13, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Sentiment remains upbeat in the major economies despite ongoing angst about the COVID-19 Delta variant.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.
Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.
Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
· Themes ·
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China – Investor Fears Are Overdone – August 4, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Foreigners are not the dominant drivers of Chinese stocks, and their fears are overblown. There is a measurable “China discount” associated with the price of its financial assets relative to equivalents in the developed economies.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.
Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.
Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
· Themes ·
This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.
Global Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Pause Before Resuming A Downward Glide – July 1, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is still consolidating last year’s losses as massive U.S. fiscal stimulus continues to support relative growth conditions and is now igniting a slightly more hawkish stance by the Fed.
Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.
Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.
Webinar – Understanding Digital Currencies – (75min:16sec) – June 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Absolute Return & Foreign Exchange Strategist, Santiago Espinosa, discussing the myths and “fundamentals” driving cryptocurrencies…
Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return ·
The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Key Gaps Are Closing/Widening – June 11, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
While uber-dovish monetary policies will remain supportive of risk asset markets, the widening gaps between nominal GDP growth and core inflation versus policy rates are unsustainable.
China – The Recovery Phase Is Ending – June 8, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The post-pandemic phase of China’s economic rebound has been exceptionally strong, and current data suggests it is already in the early stages of ending.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.
Foreign Exchange – Has The Crypto Fever Broken? – May 25, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
While a bit controversial three months ago, we noted in March that the probability of a bust in cryptocurrencies was more likely than a continuation of the pandemic-induced exuberance (a view that panned out).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.
Foreign Exchange – Canadian Dollar: The Good News Is Priced-In – May 21, 2021
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – When Uncertain, Prioritize Growth – May 13, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
The overarching driver of EM currencies is global trade, which offers a strongly positive backdrop and will likely propel appreciation versus a softening U.S. dollar.
Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.
Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – As Good As It Gets – May 7, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The aggressive monetary and fiscal support of the past year helped bring forward and fortify the robust rebound in capital markets relative to underlying economic growth conditions.
China – Reawakened Consumers Underpin Growth – May 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
China is growing at a robust, above-trend growth, with concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic slipping into the distant past.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.
Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.
Foreign Exchange – Is The GBP Rally Over? – April23, 2021
Foreign Exchange ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.
Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.
China – Capital Markets With Chinese Characteristics – April 8, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
China’s economic momentum remains strong and is broadening, and offers powerful support for a solid global expansion in output and trade.
Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.
Global Foreign Exchange – How Long Will U.S. Dollar Resilience Last? – March 30, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
The short-term outlook for the U.S. dollar remains mildly positive on the back of stronger relative growth (boosted by massive fiscal spending) and still oversold conditions (except versus the euro).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.
Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Don’t Fear The Treasury Bear Market – March 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In the midst of a burst of synchronized global growth, financed by Uncle Sam’s mega-stimulus, EM currencies stand to ride higher on a tide of investor risk appetite.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.
Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.
Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.
Foreign Exchange – Understanding Digital Currencies – March 9, 2021
· Foreign Exchange ·
Cryptocurrencies have enjoyed a substantial bull market on the back of highly accommodative monetary policies as well as increased speculative activity, partly attributable to the pandemic.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.
China – Yuan Bonds Outperform As Policy “Normalizes” – March 3, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The Chinese economy doesn’t need stimulus, and, in fact, fiscal retrenchment will gather pace this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.
Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.
Asset Allocation – Which Inflation Hedges Are Appealing? – February 25, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
We have regularly noted that there is scope for medium term upside in the years ahead.
Emerging Markets – BRL Bonds: No More Bad News Left To Discount – February 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Brazilian assets have been severely punished in recent weeks as a series of negative developments, including last week’s government intervention in Petrobras
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing An Anchor – February 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rebound in Treasury yields has spread abroad and has increased the odds of a correction in overbought risk asset markets.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.
Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Window For Appreciation…Or Merely Digesting Its Losses? – February 12, 2021
Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.
China – Chinese Divergences – February 2, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum is far above its trend growth rate, while its stock market booms, government bond yields and the currency edge higher and a central bank advisor dropped hints of policy normalization.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Free Money Forever – January 29, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity market risks have recently eased on the fundamental side, as Treasury yields have calmed, but worsened on the technical side, as speculative froth has erupted. A pause in augmenting favored positions is still warranted.
Policy – Another Year Of Hyper-Accommodative Monetary Policy – January 27, 2021
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the major developed market central banks, as well as supporting charts.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.
Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity Currencies: The Good News Is Discounted – January 22, 2021
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent stall in U.S. employment trends underscores the need for rapid vaccinations to clear the path to a self-reinforcing global economic expansion.
Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.
Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.
China – Climbing The Wall Of Worry – January 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
China continues to experience strong economic momentum, despite a stutter in December’s PMI surveys (which nevertheless remain firmly in expansionary territory).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.
Global Foreign Exchange – Navigating Currency Markets In 2021 – December 17, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is currently oversold and may be setting up for a bounce, but the cyclical trend remains down and its longer-term appeal is fading.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Currencies Will Continue To Outperform In 2021 – December 15, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth in global trade and domestic demand will be far stronger in 2021 than it was in 2020, with much of the EM universe being the primary beneficiaries of this currency tailwind.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).
Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.
China – What Could Interrupt China’s Rebound in 2021? – December 3, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum is by far the strongest in the world, which supports strong global appetite for Chinese financial assets.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.
Emerging Markets – China’s Corporate Bond Defaults: Now Is The Time – November 20, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.
Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Messy Outlook Ahead – November 13, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.
China – Domestic Growth Trumps Intermittent Foreign Demand – November 4, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
China is the only major economy recording positive GDP growth this year, and its central bank is the only one signaling policy normalization ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.
Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.
Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.
Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.
Economy – Second COVID-19 Wave Heightens Euro Area Economic Uncertainty – October 16, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports
Global Foreign Exchange – The U.S. Dollar Is Losing Its Appeal – October 15, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Investor anxiety associated with the global health crisis and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election has stayed somewhat elevated in recent weeks
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Growth, Valuation And Capital Flows Underpin EM Currencies – October 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Growth is poorly distributed in the EM universe, as are attractive interest rates, with overlap hard to find.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.
Foreign Exchange – Stick With The Yen In An Uncertain World – October 9, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.
Foreign Exchange – The Multi-Year Case For The Euro – September 22, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The recent spike in euro area daily cases of COVID-19 has reignited economic pessimism, which has triggered a risk-off phase and bounce in the dollar, halting the rally in the euro.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.
China – Torrid Recovery Will Ease Off – September 8, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
China’s growth trajectory can be broken down into two components.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.
Foreign Exchange – Is U.S. Dollar Weakness Nearly Over? – August 28, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.
Fixed Income / Foreign Exchange – U.K. Risks Warrant Cautious Positioning – August 21, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.
Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
· Themes ·
Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – China, The Dollar And TINA – August 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Let not the best be the enemy of the good. Had Voltaire been an EM currency investor, he would take comfort from a “good enough”
Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.
Fixed Income/Foreign Exchange – Second COVID-19 Wave Hits Australia – July 31, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.
South Africa – Saved By The Fed, For Now – July 30, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
The IMF threw South Africa a lifeline this week and opened the door to other multilateral loans to deal with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
· Themes ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: A Gradual Uptrend Ahead – July 24, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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China – Cyclical Recovery Is Real – July 22, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
It may have taken a few months to revive after the initial lockdown, but June data confirms that Chinese economic activity has recovered from its early-year swoon and is growing at, or slightly above, its trend rate.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.
Foreign Exchange – Stick With The MRB Optimal FX Barbell Basket – July 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.
Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
· Themes ·
The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.
Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Global Foreign Exchange – Policy Stimulus’ Impact On FX Markets – July 7, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
The bounce in global risk assets from deeply oversold levels has favored pro-growth currencies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.
Foreign Exchange – SEK: Excesses And Weak Global Growth Are Headwinds – June 26, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It All Comes Down To Employment And Job Security – June 19, 2020
· Uncategorized · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or churning phase for equities is probable in the near term, given the sharp rebound in prices this spring and likelihood that corporate profits will not be able to return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro: Cyclically Neutral, But Structurally Bullish – June 12, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
LatAm – Sifting Through The COVID-19 Rubble – June 10, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Local currency-denominated bonds are the best LatAm play, and should be held at overweight within an EM local-currency bond portfolio.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.
Foreign Exchange – Developed Commodity Currencies Will Need To Get Cheaper – June 3, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report highlights why the recent rally in developed commodity-based currencies should prove temporary as underlying fundamentals in these economies remain weak.
Webcast – Canada: Will The Bubble Finally Burst? – (13min:26sec) – June 2, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest outlook on the Canadian economy and asset markets, with a focus on the potential for a bursting of the housing and credit bubbles.
Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.
Canada – On Thin Ice As It Heats Up – May 27, 2020
Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report updates our outlook on the Canadian economy and related investment strategy in response to the pandemic and related halt in activity.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.
Foreign Exchange – AUD Is Still Not A Buy – May 22, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Can Post-Pandemic Asia Outperform? – May 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
We remain broadly constructive on the prospects for EM currencies to gain versus the U.S. dollar as North East Asian economies deliver a more successful post-pandemic reopening…
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.
Foreign Exchange – The COVID-19 Effect On The Yen – May 8, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.
Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Saudi Arabia – 2020: A Replay Of Korea 1997? – April 29, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
In the EM world, the aggregate debt position of oil exporters was already far inferior to that of the broader universe before this year’s coronavirus-related collapse in oil demand.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.
Foreign Exchange – The Prospects For Petro-Currencies Are Bleak – April 24, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – The Great Halt Of 2020 – April 23, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report compares the current economic fallout with the previous and concludes that another Great Recession is very unlikely.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.
Foreign Exchange – Differentiating Bounces In Pro-Growth Currencies – April 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.
Global Foreign Exchange – Impact Of COVID-19 On FX Strategy – March 26, 2020
· Foreign Exchange ·
Given the uncertainty associated with the global health crisis, it is helpful to consider scenario analysis for FX strategy over the next 6-12 months.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.
Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – After The Virus… Recession Or Outperformance? – March 10, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Foreign exchange markets have seen volatility spike in recent weeks as investors grapple with the potential growth shock associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.
TradeBook Updates – March 6, 2020
Absolute Return · Emerging Markets ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.
Absolute Return Strategy – Will COVID-19 End The Cycle? – February 27, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 threat arrived at a point when equity markets had an air pocket after materially rerating over the past year and were overly optimistic about the global growth outlook.
LatAm – Bonds And Rates Will Outperform – February 27, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
LatAm’s investment landscape beyond the short term will be characterized by a modest recovery in global trade and supportive global liquidity, all of which are positive for financial assets in the region.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (19min:00sec) – February 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
. In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month, including the virus.
Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: Positively Infected – February 21, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.
Foreign Exchange – Swedish Krona: Cheap, But Stay Selective – February 14, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.
Policy – Little Pressure On Monetary Policy This Year – February 6, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The challenge heading forward for policymakers will be for those markets facing housing and credit excesses that ultimately will limit, if not prevent, any monetary tightening.
Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.
Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.
Foreign Exchange – Be Selective With The Swiss Franc – January 24, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.
Foreign Exchange – Upgrade The Singapore Dollar To Overweight – January 17, 2020
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Upgrade EM Currencies Versus The U.S. Dollar – January 14, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
A steady if unspectacular improvement in global trade momentum, along with supportive global liquidity, imply that conditions are ripening for the outperformance of an EM currency basket versus…
Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Great Year And A Great Decade: Can It Continue? – December 20, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We continue to recommend a mildly pro-growth investment stance across most asset classes.
Webcast – FX Strategy For 2020 (13min:31sec) – December 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this today’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the outlook for FX strategy in 2020.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Positioning For 2020 – December 12, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
Today’s report outlines our FX positioning in 2020. This year the U.S. dollar traded marginally higher on the back of weaker external growth and ongoing uncertainty associated with trade and politics.
Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Slow And Modest Upturn Lies Ahead – December 6, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
While global growth should gradually firm next year, it will be insufficient to warrant a decisive risk-on investment posture.
Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Consolidation Before More Upside? – November 29, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The resilience of the consumer sector bodes well for the U.S. economic outlook.
Foreign Exchange – CAD: The Best Of A Bad Lot – November 29, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Validation – November 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There are tentative signs of a trough in manufacturing activity, but follow-through will be critical to sustain the recent breakout in equities and the global stock/bond ratio.
Foreign Exchange – Use The Yen As Insurance – November 22, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – A Skinny Trade Deal Adds Comfort, Not Return – November 19, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In a growth-challenged world, EM currencies are unlikely to escape the see-saw impact of global risk appetite, and will continue to maintain their negative correlation with the U.S. dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy – FOMO Versus A Challenging Earnings Outlook – November 15, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity should gradually improve in the coming year, but much strongergrowth is highly unlikely.
Foreign Exchange – New Zealand Dollar: A Weak Currency Is Needed – November 15, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Worries Recede Further – November 8, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stability in manufacturing PMI surveys and the recent easing in trade tensions have spurred higher equity prices and bond yields.
Foreign Exchange – Believe In The Euro – November 8, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Euro Area – Economy: Weak But Resilient – November 5, 2019
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report updates our euro area economic outlook and focuses on two key topics that are crucial to the euro area, namely the global auto industry and the German labor market.
South Africa – Rand Bonds Will Shine, Despite Downgrade Worries – October 31, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
There’s been no shortage of negative headlines about Eskom’s bailout, its impact on South Africa’s public debt sustainability, and the potential downgrade to sub-investment-grade status.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Turn In Manufacturing – October 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Non-U.S. equities have perked up, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity will keep a lid on equity prices and bond yields.
Foreign Exchange – Choosing Between Two Canaries – October 25, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.
Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Relief, But Risks Remain – October 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global trade and manufacturing indicators are still generally weak, and the protectionist backdrop will continue to hold back the global economy.
Foreign Exchange – Brexit Deal Speculation Provides “Temporary” Relief To The GBP – October 18, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Bending, But Not Yet Breaking – October 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Trade policies and heightened domestic economic tensions continue to erode global economic sentiment, although not yet by enough to undermine the expansion.
Foreign Exchange – The Expensive U.S. Dollar Makes Selectivity Critical – October 11, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.
Canada – On Borrowed Time – October 8, 2019
· Economics & Policy ·
The increasing imbalances and building vulnerabilities of the Canadian economy have been a regular theme in our research since the commodity Supercycle crested in 2013.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.
Webcast – China Recovers From Soft Patch, India’s Decline Accelerates (6min:40sec) – October 2, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani examines the evidence for China’s rebound from a soft spot in its manufacturing economy, along with the deterioration of India’s cyclical growth conditions.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Ugly Politics Carpets (So Far) Solid Floorboards – September 27, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The drip/drip of negative political developments risks undermining economic sentiment.
Foreign Exchange – Choosing Between The Aussie And Kiwi Dollars – September 27, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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China – Chinese Economic Momentum Softens And Stocks Rally (As Usual) – September 25, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese domestic-listed stocks are rallying while economic momentum hits another soft patch.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Highly Political World – September 19, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
Increased political uncertainty and trade threats have fueled financial market volatility, benefiting safe-haven currencies including the U.S. dollar. However, further upside for the dollar should prove limited.
Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Business Cycle Remains Resilient – September 13, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global hiring plans have stayed solid despite the downturn in manufacturing and trade, and service sector PMI surveys remain positive.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Indiscriminate Weakness Opens Up Opportunities – September 5, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Whether weighted by equity or debt benchmarks, EM currency aggregates have given up all their 12-month gains relative to the U.S. dollar.
Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Is Trump Blinking? – August 23, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
President Trump appears to have heard the warning that his trade policy risks undermining his re-election prospects.
Foreign Exchange – The Swiss Franc: The Lucky Canary – August 23, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Fearing Fear – August 16, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Rising protectionism remains the main global economic threat.
China – Data Solid, Market Narratives Crumble – August 15, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Market narratives about China’s economy are far more pessimistic than the actual data, amplifying a negative feedback loop that stokes investor anxieties about global growth.
Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).
Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.
Latam – Is Brazil Really A Better Credit Than Mexico? – July 23, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
The steady change in perceptions of economic/political risks in Brazil versus Mexico has seen Brazilian financial assets massively outperform their Mexican counterparts…
Weekly Macro Strategy – It May Be Unnecessary, But… – July 19, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors remain wary of taking risk outside of U.S. large-cap stocks, implying that there is still considerable sidelined cash to buy equities – but only if economic confidence improves.
Foreign Exchange – The U.K. Pound Will Stay Weak Versus The Euro – July 19, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.
Webcast – Snack On EM Debt While Watching The U.S./China Slugfest (6min:49sec) – July 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani discussing the implications of the G20 summit for various EM assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.
Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.
Global Foreign Exchange – Making Selective Non-Dollar Bets – June 25, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
The global economy and investor expectations have been caught between the clash in policy forces of heightened trade tensions and further monetary reflation.
China – Will China Reflate, And What Would It Mean If It Did? – June 19, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Once a month, we review current Chinese macroeconomic indicators for signs of shifting momentum, potential policy adjustments and the outlook for China-related assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Crosscurrents Continue – June 14, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equity and credit markets remain caught between mounting trade tensions, and supportive monetary conditions and positive underlying corporate profitability.
Foreign Exchange – Australian Dollar: A Weak Currency Is Needed – June 14, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fed Props Up EM FX While Growth Fades – June 11, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Protectionist rhetoric has ratcheted higher, dovish developed market central banks are mollifying jittery capital markets while EM assets offer a very attractive carry.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.
Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
· Themes ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.
Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy ·
The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.
China – Preparing For A Digital Iron Curtain – May 22, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Beware the tendency to attribute every twitch in Chinese asset prices to the current tweet on trade.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Protecting Some Profits – May 17, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are protecting profits and downgrading equities to neutral within a multi-asset portfolio, following the powerful run-up in prices this year and recent escalation in trade tensions.
Foreign Exchange – The Yen Is A Hedge Against Political Turmoil -May 17, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.
Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: A Crowded Trade – May 10, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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South Africa – Underwhelming Politics, But A Disaster Was Avoided – May 9, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
This week’s elections failed to deliver a convincing enough mandate for President Ramaphosa to carry out root-and-branch structural reforms, and while it is difficult to identify a long term winner, the clear loser is private sector investment and job creation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.
Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The Pain Trades Rolls On – April 26, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Central banks, including the Fed, will stay dovish until after better economic data arrives, which bodes well for equities and credit.
Foreign Exchange – Canadian Dollar: Risks Remain High – April 26, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Don’t Short U.S. Corporate Profits – April 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The improvement in the Chinese economy is gaining momentum, and will provide a lift to global activity and support risk asset prices.
Foreign Exchange – Swedish Krona: Cheap, But Structurally Challenged
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Monetary Reflation In A Deleveraging World (12min:30sec) – April 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The mechanics and impact of monetary policy have been heavily debated from the onset of the Great Recession and has heated up again since the Fed whipsawed investors with a massive pivot.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Stabilizing Growth, Easy Liquidity – April 16, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
In terms of global liquidity and growth prospects, 2019 is playing out as the reverse of last year: growth is stabilizing and liquidity is plentiful, courtesy of the dovish U-turn.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V – April 12, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. and global ex-U.S. equity prices should hit new highs given our expectation that the tentative turnaround in global trade and manufacturing activity will gain momentum.
Foreign Exchange – The Euro Or The Yen? – April 12, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Signs Of An Economic Inflection Point (9min:18sec) – April 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Fork In The Road – March 29, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The sharp bounce in risk asset prices this quarter is due for a pause. A resumption in the uptrend needs evidence that global economic activity is firming.
Foreign Exchange – Pairing Off Oil-Dependent Currencies – March 29, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflation Top Up – March 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed added additional economic insurance this week, which will cap bond yields, but provide further fuel for risk asset prices.
Global Foreign Exchange – FX Strategy In A Desynchronized World – March 18, 2019
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has drifted slightly higher on the back of slower global growth and ongoing investor uncertainty about the economic outlook.
Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.
Foreign Exchange – Euro: Waiting For A Catalyst – March 1, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Testing Times – February 15, 2019
· Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some key equity indexes are breaking above resistance levels and high-yield corporate bond spreads are narrowing, which bode well for risk assets.
Policy – Synchronized Moderation Temporarily Halts The Great Monetary Unwind – February 12, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S.-led gradual global monetary unwind has temporarily paused, with the Fed recently moving to the sidelines.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – The Fog Of (Trade) War Is Lifting – February 7, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies’ modest revival since October reflects in part their oversold nature after a torrid mid-year selloff last year.
Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.
Emerging Markets – Latam Play: Brazilian Stocks And Mexican Bonds Will Win – January 31, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Brazil and Mexico typically compete for Latam portfolio flows. Today’s report concludes that investors are likely to rotate into Mexican peso bonds as the relative risk/reward profile has tilted against Brazilian local bonds.
Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It’s Late, But Not Yet Over – January 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent equity market low (high in corporate bond spreads) should hold, but a re-test is still possible.
Foreign Exchange – Euro: Waiting For A Catalyst – January 25, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part II) – January 24, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second of a two-part MRB Theme Report that outlines several non-consensus views about the next global recession and environment
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.
Foreign Exchange – Even “No Brexit” Will Not Fix The Pound – January 18, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Calmer Heads Prevail? – January 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk asset markets overreacted to a modest deterioration in the fundamentals in late-2018.
Foreign Exchange – Stay Long The Japanese Yen – January 11, 2019
Foreign Exchange ·
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Charts – China: Growth Trends Diverge Sharply – January 10, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
A bearish narrative pervades investor interpretation of Chinese economic data
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.
Webcast – Excessive Pessimism Priced In (10min:32sec) – January 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest asset allocation strategy, arguing that markets are discounting an overly bearish economic outlook in 2019.
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Precarious Footing – January 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets are discounting a pronounced further slowdown in global economic growth in 2019, with a significant probability of recession.
Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It Is Either/Or – December 21, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The FOMC (and chair Powell) stumbled in its communication strategy this week.
Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Focus On Cross Rates Rather Than The U.S. Dollar In 2019 – December 14, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Global Foreign Exchange Report – FX Markets: 2019 Outlook – December 11, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar appreciated this year against most currencies, although only modestly despite most variables (including interest rate differentials and relative growth) favoring the currency.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-Off Pressures Ease – November 30, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Worries that the Fed will prematurely turn restrictive have diminished, helping to calm the Treasury market.
Charts – China: Stocks Stir, Will The Economy Follow? – November 26, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Something is stirring in China’s mainland bourses: for the past month the local CSI300 index has been under less pressure than the MSCI China index.
Absolute Return Strategy – Global Economic Stool: Are The Legs Wobbly? – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been hit hard over the past few weeks, with global… Continue
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.
Brazil – Overdone, Or Just Getting Started? – November 20, 2018
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Brazilian stocks, bonds and the Real have all been on a tear since their trough in September, benefitting our overweight positions in EM equity, bond and currency portfolios.
Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back To Gridlock – November 9, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. politics will remain “noisy”, but should have an overall benign impact on the economy and financial markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Excessive Growth Anxiety – November 2, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Last month’s market reaction was largely overdone. That U.S. economic and earnings growth are in the process of peaking which goes without saying given that this year’s fiscal stimulus will fade in 2019.
Webcast – The End Of Cheap Money: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (8min:57sec) – October 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). October 31 after… Continue
Webcast – Bond Yields, Choke Points & Relief Valves (12min:26sec) – October 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Financial markets have been shaken as investors have rapidly adjusted their expectations to reflect a higher bond yield environment.
Charts – China: Talking Up A Recovery – October 24, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
This year’s deceleration of Chinese economic activity is on track, with the epicenter being a sharp retreat in public infrastructure spending.
Theme – Competitive Currency Devaluation Is Ending – October 23, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Competitive currency devaluation was an important theme in the years following the Great Recession when two major global growth engines needed reflating, namely the U.S. and euro area.
South Africa – Circles Or Spirals? – October 23, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
It has been a turbulent year for South African financial assets, starting with a euphoric rally after President Ramaphosa’s victory in December 2017, and then giving back earlier gains as investors’ patience broke in the summer.
Emerging Markets – Brazil and Mexico: A Phoenix, Not A Dragon – October 16, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Factors that caused investors to lose faith with Brazil and Mexico earlier this year are now reversing and both markets are well set to deliver positive absolute and relative performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Bond Yields Reach A Choke Point – October 12, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Euro Italy Is A Headwind Again – October 12, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – A Fresh Test For Investors (8min:45sec) – October 10, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Bond Bear Bites Again – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
The abrupt breakout in U.S. Treasury yields over the past week caught many investors by surprise and sent shockwaves through financial asset markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bond Bear Growls – October 5, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The breakout in U.S Treasury yields represents a fresh challenge to a global economy that has been resilient this year, thanks to ongoing policy support and still-positive cyclical dynamics.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Rebalance For The Rebound – October 4, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies have recently decoupled from the U.S. dollar, forming a tentative bottom despite the dollar’s latest spike.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Message To The Fed: It’s Far From Over – September 28, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A dovish Fed may provide Treasurys with a brief reprieve. However, we remain bearish on bonds: the Fed will ultimately raise rates by more than expected.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – New Zealand Dollar: Further Downside Ahead – September 28, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Is The Worst Over? – September 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
On/off trade worries are again receding, spurring a risk-on phase. The global stock/bond ratio has room to rise, as positive economic fundamentals will persist.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Norwegian Krone: Brief Policy-Induced Bounce – September 21, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Opposing Forces – September 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Once again, there are glimmers of hope on the trade front. A meaningful easing in tensions would signal that the risk-on backdrop in the U.S. will spread abroad.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – A Short-Lived Boost For The GBP – September 14, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Liquidity Fears Are Overdone – September 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Fears of a squeeze on global liquidity are increasing, as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and continues its grad
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Window Of Opportunity – August 31, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Trade tensions have eased a notch, reducing the threat to the global economic expansion. Meanwhile, U.S. and euro area economic indicators point to above-trend growth ahead, which should coincide with another upleg in the global stock/bond ratio.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – NAFTA 2.0 What About The Canadian Dollar – August 31, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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WMS – Foreign Exchange – NAFTA 2.0 And Mexico Bi- or Tri-Lateral – August 31, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Surmounting The Hurdles (Yet Again) – August 24, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth has stabilized at historically solid levels, underscoring that conditions remain supportive of equity markets and bearish for bonds.
Asia Ex-Japan – Yuan Devaluation Risks Are Low – August 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We continue to believe that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) can, and will, support the trade-weighted yuan, which underpins our overweight positions in Asian stocks and currencies within their respective EM portfolios.
A Primer On IMF Rescue Plans: A Turkish Example – August 20, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Turkey is staring at a currency, banking and economic crisis as its access to foreign finance dries up.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-On Or Risk-Off? – August 17, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Turkish meltdown should not have an escalating domino effect on the EM world, nor on overall global economic activity.
Webcast – Will Asia Catch The Turkish Flu? (5min:59sec) – August 15, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast, Adam Wolfe discusses the Turkish currency crisis, China’s exchange rate management issues, and the potential for contagion in Asia.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Gauging The Contagion Risks For EM Asian Currencies – August 14, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
With Turkey on the edge of a currency and financial crisis, fears of contagion have spread to EM Asia.
Global Foreign Exchange Report – The U.S. Dollar Rally Is Looking Fatigued – August 13, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
Aggressive U.S. tariffs against Turkey last week, pushed the lira to a new historical low, and provided a lift to the dollar.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Looking To Upgrade Equities – August 10, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Underlying economic and corporate earnings prospects are still positive, but an easing in trade tensions is needed to lift non-U.S. equity market sentiment.
Webcast – EM Currencies’ Trade Tantrum (7min:23sec) – August 8, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for EM currencies after the last few weeks of investor nervousness towards this asset class.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Where There’s Muck, There’s Brass – August 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Three distinct narratives combined earlier this year to buffet EM currencies, albeit on a scale that is rather modest by the standards of 2013’s “Taper Tantrum” and 2014-2015’s commodity price meltdown.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Markets In Limbo – August 3, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets remain in limbo, with key equity, bond and currency benchmarks still largely range-bound.
Webcast – MRB Q&A: Top Questions From Clients (9min:35sec) – July 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins answers some of the key client questions we have recently received, ranging from the impact of trade protectionism on investment strategy to the outlook for gold.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Policy Debate Stokes Yuan Fears – July 24, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Any forthcoming monetary easing is likely to be less than is already discounted by the markets, while a loosening of the fiscal screws should provide support for the yuan.
Latam – Latin America: Short Term Pain Will Give Way To Long Term Gain – July 19, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Latam financial assets have been buffeted by the combination of rising global protectionist threats and self-inflicted wounds in Argentina, Brazil and until recently, Mexico.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – No Blinking So Far – July 13, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The trade war has not de-escalated. Thus, equity prices will remain at risk in the near run, and bond prices will stay supported.
Webcast – Will The U.S. Dollar Rally Continue? (6min:18sec) – July 11, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB provides some highlights about our investment stance on the greenback and whether the current rally will continue.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Churn Continues – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report revisits three topics that continue to be heavily debated and which we believe investors are focused inappropriately.
Webcast – The China Syndrome: Containment Or Contagion? (6min:29sec) – July 4, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Adam Wolfe discusses the recent weakness in the Chinese yuan and Chinese stock prices.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Yuan Depreciation Will Be Contained – July 3, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Those looking for a ray of hope in an otherwise gloomy investment landscape can point to the fact that a 3.3% decline in the yuan against the U.S. dollar in June
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – GBP: Further Depreciation Ahead – June 22, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Identifying The EM Babies Thrown Out With The Bathwater (8min:14sec) – June 20, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Wednesday Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani examines the recent selloff in EM currencies and bonds and looks for potential mispricing associated with the negative market narrative.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Hawks And Doves – June 15, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The U.S. economy is reaccelerating and we expect the Fed will lift its forecast for the longer-run equilibrium rate by yearend, given the ongoing upcycle in core inflation and wage growth.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – The Japanese Yen Versus The Australian Dollar – June 15, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Euro Area: Cyclical Vs Structural Outlook (13min:54sec) – June 13, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 13 after… Continue
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Asia Policy Round Up: Gearing Up For The 2019 Elections – June 12, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
The U.S. dollar’s recent appreciation has bifurcated monetary policy across South and Southeast Asia.
Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part II): Structurally Flawed – June 11, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series which provides a broader perspective of the cyclical and structural crosscurrents facing the euro area.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Wobbly Leg? – June 8, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Recent weakness in some euro area economic indicators should soon give way to stability.
WMS – Foreign Exchnage – Euro: Cheap, And No Longer Overbought – June 8, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part I): Cyclically Resilient – June 7, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Several headwinds have hit the euro area in recent months, making investors question if the steady improvements recorded last year have given way to something more ominous.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Is The Trade Tide Turning? – June 7, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
EM currencies almost always deliver decent returns to global investors when there is a positive global trade cycle, and rarely do so when global trade decelerates.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Can 1997 Happen Again? – June 5, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
U.S. dollar appreciation since April has exposed balance-sheet weaknesses in a handful of EMs, sparking fears of a currency crisis and contagion.
Absolute Return Strategy – Into The Endgame – May 30, 2018
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Global equities have swung wildly this year. Our base-case view is that recent selling pressure will prove to be a setback, rather than the start of a bear market.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.
Asia Ex-Japan Report – Navigating The Political Risks In Southeast Asia – May 29, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
After a shock election result, the new government in Malaysia has been grappling with the hidden fiscal weakness left behind by the previous, deeply corrupt ruling coalition.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Lot Of Churning – May 25, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty remain elevated, which will continue to hold back the global stock/bond ratio in the near run.
Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
· Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes ·
Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.
WMS – Emerging Markets – Sifting Through The Brazilian Rubble – May 25, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Japanese Yen Bulls: A Long-Term Relationship – May 18, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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WMS – Emerging Markets – Rising Treasury Yields And The Dollar: Tougher Times For Some EM Currencies – May 18, 2018
Emerging Markets ·
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Webcast – FX Roadmap: What To Expect (9min:43sec) – May 16, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar focus on MRB’s latest thematic research and its implications for the U.S. dollar and major developed market currencies over the next few years.
Theme – The Trade And Reserve Currency Systems At Risk – May 15, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
The global trading system that is a holdover from the 1944 Bretton Woods conference has passed its sell-by date.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More Churning, But The Cycle Remains Intact – May 11, 2018
· Commodities · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. inflationary pressures continue to slowly build, and emergency-level interest rates outside of the U.S. are no longer warranted.
Foreign Exchange Report – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in the near run.
Theme – Building A FX Roadmap – May 10, 2018
· Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. dollar is bouncing from oversold levels, and may firm further in… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Cash Is King – May 4, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The crosscurrents of a moderation in global growth momentum, combined with ongoing Fed rate hikes, rising U.S. inflation, and looming U.S. protectionist measures, portends continued churning in global capital markets in the near term.
Webcast – The Next Global Recession: The Canaries Are Coughing (8min:54sec) – May 3, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The U.S.-led government bond bear market has taken many investors by surprise this year, causing a shakeout in equities and increased market volatility.
Russia – The Ruble And Ruble Bonds: Safe Bet Or Russian Roulette? – May 3, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Russian financial assets were hit last month by the expansion of U.S.-imposed sanctions, and while this hurt our overweight positions on Russia within EM currency and fixed-income portfolios
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Can Stocks Weather Higher Bond Yields? – April 27, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some positive economic surprises this week suggest that global growth is likely to prove resilient.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Canadian Dollar: Risks Are High – April 27, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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South Africa – Ramaphoria, The Rand, And Related Assets – April 24, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
South Africa woke up from the long nightmare of the profoundly corrupt presidency of Jacob Zuma, marked by “state capture”, feeble growth and spiralling public debt, and staged a euphoric rally to welcome President Ramaphosa.
Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Confidence Hold? – April 20, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is cooling after last year’s mini-boom, but a sizable slowdown is unlikely, provided trade tensions do not escalate.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – The Swedish Krona: Upside Will Now Be Limited – April 20, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Webcast – Currency Intervention In China And Hong Kong (6min:05sec) – April 18, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Adam Wolfe discusses central bank currency intervention in China and Hong Kong.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Maintain A Neutral Stance On The U.S. Dollar – April 13, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – Reassuringly Boring, For Now – April 10, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
When global trade is expanding, accidents rarely occur for EM currencies as a whole.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Many Moving (i.e. Conflicting) Parts – April 6, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
A moderation in growth momentum, combined with additional Fed rate hikes and, more recently, the escalating trade battle between the U.S. and China, implies continuing market volatility and warrants near-term caution toward risk assets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More To Go – March 29, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Heightened geopolitical tensions and stock-specific woes in the tech sector will keep equity markets weak in the near run.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – The Japanese Yen Appreciates In Volatile Times – March 29, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Asia Ex-Japan – Is A Trade War Brewing? – March 27, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
Proposed U.S. tariffs on about US$60 bn worth of Chinese imports roiled Asian markets at the end of last week.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Slippery Slope – March 23, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent risk-off phase was initially driven by rising bond yields, but now fears of protectionism have moved to the forefront. Barring an escalating trade war, we expect the pause in bond yields and correction in equity prices to reverse beyond the near run.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Favor The Norwegian Krone Over The Canadian Dollar – March 23, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Mexico – A Populist Win In Mexico, Thanks to Trump – March 20, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Mexico will elect a new president on 1 July, and the runaway front-runner is an old-school populist with a long track record of incendiary and hyper-leftist positions, who failed on his two previous attempts to win the presidency.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Tug-Of-War – March 16, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rise in bond yields and equity prices is on temporary hold: growth momentum will slow a notch and protectionist concerns may keep some investors cautious, yet the cyclical buildup of inflation pressures will persist
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Differentiating Among Export-Oriented Currencies – March 16, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Charts – The Great Monetary Unwind: Case By Case Basis – March 13, 2018
· Economics & Policy ·
The Fed has led the global monetary unwind over the past couple of years, but an increased number of central banks have either joined or are preparing to do so in the months or year ahead.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Choppiness Will Persist In The Near Term – March 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets will continue to be in flux in the near term given uncertainty about the inflation and interest rate outlook as well as fresh policy risks, including the recent U.S. protectionist measures.
Theme – Isolationism: Sadism Or Masochism? – March 8, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The threat of a U.S.-led trade war has been lurking since President Trump was elected and has now moved to the forefront of investor worries as the first shot may soon be fired.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still In Flux – March 2, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity market correction has not yet run its course. On a positive note, the relative resilience of global financial stocks bodes well for another rally phase in the overall stock market
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Equities: Time To Go Underweight Or Overweight? – February 23, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The correction in risk assets will probably persist in the near run.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Fed Become Hemmed-In? – February 16, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Further near-run turbulence in risk asset markets is probable until bond yields plateau.
Latam – Another Good Year Ahead – February 15, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Latam financial assets mildly underperformed their EM counterparts last year. However, the outlook… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – The U.S. Dollar Is Lacking Friends – February 13, 2018
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports There is a case for a bounce in the U.S. dollar from oversold… Continue
U.S. Equities – Higher Volatility: It’s The Fundamentals – February 13, 2018
· Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Volatility has reared its ugly head in the past two weeks, suddenly bolting… Continue
Webcast – The Correction Must Run Its Course (8min:50sec) – February 7, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 7 after… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Protecting Profits – February 5, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Two of the risk factors that we have been monitoring to time an… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue
Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:56sec) – January 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). January 31 after… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 30, 2018
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The High-Wire Act Continues – January 26, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The backdrop remains bond-bearish. Meanwhile, technical and valuation measures are progressively deteriorating for equities, particularly in the U.S.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Stay Long The Euro Vs The Pound – January 26, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Charts – A Weak U.S. Dollar Will Benefit Non-U.S. Equity Markets – January 25, 2018
· Equities ·
The recent divergence between the performance of the U.S. dollar and regional equity market relative returns in common currency terms is unsustainable.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Into The Extrapolation Phase – January 19, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investors are discounting positive earnings trends well into the future, but have not yet made a parallel adjustment to their interest rate expectations.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Euro: Lots To Like, But It Is Now Overbought – January 19, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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WMS – Foreign Exchange– U.S. Dollar: Stay Selectively Overweight – January 12, 2018
Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Four-Legged Stool: One Too Many? – January 12, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain bearish on bonds and positive on the stock/bond ratio, but acknowledge that equity risks are increasing, with sentiment readings at their most frothy levels of the decade.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – A Favorable Tide, But Some Pesky Headwinds -January 11, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
We recommend investors maintain overweights on EM currencies which are supported by the global trade revival
Asset Allocation Strategy –Risk Assessment: It’s Still Too Soon To Bail – January 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The economic and policy outlook remains positive for risk assets and we remain moderately overweight equities versus government bonds in a multi-asset portfolio.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Betting Against the Consensus – December 22, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global stock/bond ratio has more upside, but mostly because bonds will generate negative returns rather than due to huge equity gains in 2018.
WMS – Foreign Exchange– Stay Positive On The Euro Over The Pound – December 22, 2017
Foreign Exchange ·
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South Africa – All Gain, No Pain (Yet) – December 21, 2017
· Emerging Markets ·
The rand has been one of the most popular EM assets in recent weeks as the market forecasted (correctly) that Mr. Ramaphosa would win the ANC leadership race.
Webcast – MRB’s Best Long-Term Bets (7min:39sec) – December 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines several of MRB’s multi-year investment recommendations.
Chile – Copper Trumps Politics – December 20, 2017
· Emerging Markets ·
The Chilean peso has significantly lagged copper prices since the start of the year, suggesting that domestic factors, namely weak growth earlier this year and politics more recently, have weighed on the currency in 2017.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Another Small Step, But Staying Behind The Curve – December 15, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The U.S. and euro area economies continue to strengthen, which will sustain better global trade.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.
Webcast – What’s In Store For 2018 (8min:45sec) – December 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for the macro backdrop and the implications for capital markets in 2018.
Foreign Exchange Report – Window For Dollar Strength – December 5, 2017
· Foreign Exchange ·
While the U.S. dollar has struggled to sustainably bounce off its September lows, underlying fundamentals still favor modest but narrow U.S. dollar appreciation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Outlook For 2018 – December 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Strong returns for most risk assets combined with the advanced age of the U.S. economic expansion have many investors wondering to what extent dangers are building going into 2018.
Asset Allocation – The Yield Curve, Recessions And Asset Allocation – December 1, 2017
· Asset Allocation · Fixed Income ·
An inverted yield curve has a reasonable track-record as an economic signal and hence the curve should be closely monitored in setting investment strategy and risk exposure. However, as an asset allocation and timing tool, there are several considerations in interpreting it.
Webcast – The Return Of Inflation: The Big Call For 2018 (10min:43sec) – November 29, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Prajakta Bhide provide MRB’s latest views on U.S. and global inflation. Highlights include:
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It All Comes Down To Inflation – November 24, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain near-run cautious on risk assets, but are still positive on the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 10, 2017
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bond and equity correction looms as the inflation, policy and economic backdrop turns marginally less supportive. Moreover, high-yield corporate bond spreads have edged up lately, a potential warning sign for equities.
Webcast – It Will Be More Difficult Next Year (8min:07sec) – November 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 8 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – November 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports It’s been a banner year for investors. Global equity returns are 21% year-to-date… Continue
South Africa Report – October 31, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
South African financial markets were buffeted by yet another government misstep, this time in last week’s mid-term budget speech during which the Finance Minister downplayed fiscal consolidation.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 27, 2017
Asset Class Reports · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Both the ECB and the BoC confirmed that they remain keen to stay behind the economic curve, which is pro-growth and bullish for the global stock/bond ratio.
Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 20, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Prospects for the three legs in the global economic stool – the U.S., euro area and China – remain upbeat.
WMS – Foreign Exchange – Positioning In Developed Market Commodity Currencies – October 20, 2017
Foreign Exchange ·
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Switzerland – Will The SNB Join The Great Monetary Unwind? – October 13, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Research Reports ·
Swiss policymakers have struggled in recent years to set an appropriate policy mix for the overall economy.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 13, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We examine the main cyclical risk factors and conclude that they are still not flashing warning signs.
Latam Report – Opportunities Loom For Latam – October 12, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
A number of interesting investment opportunities will emerge in Latam financial markets once the final U.S. dollar cyclical upleg reaches its apex, and a China-related air pocket in commodity pits is out of the way.
China – Ignore Politics, Focus On Housing – October 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange ·
The Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Party Congress kicks off next week, which will result in a massive turnover of the country’s top political and military leadership.
U.S. – Dissecting U.S. Inflation & Wages: Not As Bond Friendly As Perceived – October 5, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Inflation has been a hot topic among investors and FOMC members during this entire business cycle.
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – October 5, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
A synchronized global trade cycle is traditionally the single most accurate indicator for EM currency outperformance.
Webcast – A Brief But Playable U.S. Dollar Bounce (8min:45sec) – October 4, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest thoughts on the U.S. dollar.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 29, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shifting trends in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could create near-term capital market turbulence.
China – Reserve Currency Status: Can China Fake It ‘til It Makes It? – September 26, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
U.S. dollar weakness, an improving balance of payments and a solid domestic economy have all provided support for the Chinese yuan this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 22, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Cyclical prospects for the global stock/bond ratio will remain upbeat until the massive gap between interest rates and nominal GDP growth closes meaningfully.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 15, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk appetite measures confirm that investors have become optimistic, but financial stress gauges are still upbeat.
Theme – Market Impact If The U.S. Dollar Melts – September 14, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon. In the current environment of solid growth and easy monetary policy, it will take some combination of economically-damaging political turmoil, decisively higher bond yields and/or a material breakdown in the U.S. dollar to threaten equities.
Absolute Return Strategy – September 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon.
Equities – Hong Kong Equities: Property Market Risks Loom Large – September 12, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Equities ·
Hong Kong property prices have been inflated by extremely low interest rates well beyond any reasonable valuation.
Foreign Exchange Report – September 7, 2017
· Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S. dollar has faced strong selling pressure this year, despite generally positive underlying fundamentals.
Webcast – Geopolitical Jitters: De-Risking Not Yet Warranted (6min:36sec) – September 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses asset allocation and investment strategy amidst the challenging political/policy backdrop.
Asset Allocation Report – September 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
An essentially quiet summer season (Northern Hemisphere) in capital markets has given way to renewed
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 25, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global stock/bond ratio faces some near-run challenges, but investors should stay positioned… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – August 24, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Typically, it has paid investors to be overweight EM currencies during periods when… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 18, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Political tensions remain elevated and could hold back risk assets further in the… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – August 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Market participants normally desire a solid economy, pro-growth policies, stability and predictability. President… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 11, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports From a big-picture perspective, many risk assets are becoming progressively inflated as the… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – August 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Many investors fear that the bull market in risk assets is in increasing… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – July 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global macro backdrop remains favorable for equities and other risk assets, while… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 28, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The cyclical backdrop remains positive for equities and mildly negative for bonds. The… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 21, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Recent currency strength may delay/mute the move by non-U.S. central banks to become… Continue
Webcast – Hawkish Bank Of Canada: Justified Or Problematic? (10min:11sec) – July 19, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). July 19 after 2:00… Continue
Canada: Is The BoC Making A Misstep? – July 13, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian dollar has firmed on the back of a decisively shift in… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – July 13, 2017
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports The cyclical advance in the U.S. dollar is not yet over, but upside… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 7, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Central bank rhetoric has hardened, sowing the seeds for higher bond yields since… Continue
Webcast – The Monetary Message (8min:59sec) – July 5, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). July 5 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – July 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports A bumpy path is likely in the near term, but continue to overweight… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – June 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Maintain a mild pro-growth cyclical bias favoring equities over bonds, but expect near-term… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 23, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economic surprise index is at a trough, whereas the euro area… Continue
Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – June 22, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports An increased number of central banks are feeling pressure to capitulate from an… Continue
South Africa Report – June 15, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports The widely-followed Composite Business Cycle Indicator’s improvement only reflects better external conditions, and… Continue
Webcast – China Sneezes: Do EM Currencies Catch Cold? (6min:25sec) – June 14, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). June 14 after 2:00… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – June 13, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 9, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Politics dominate the headlines, but improving corporate profits bode well for the global… Continue
Webcast – It’s The Economy… (8min:44sec) – June 7, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 7 after… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – June 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Some bumps are likely in the near run, but the fundamentals point to… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 26, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Prospects remain positive for the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon,… Continue
Latam Report – Four Questions – May 23, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s impending housing market slowdown will weigh on commodity prices and Latam growth… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 19, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. political risks have increased and could trigger a risk-off phase. Equity leadership… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – May 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Chinese economy is starting to downshift, while investors are paring back their… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – May 11, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 28, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Euro area prospects improved this week, and we expect the growth gap between… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 21, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The current correction phase in risk assets will persist but we do not… Continue
Emerging Markets – India: Structural Reforms And Roadblocks – April 18, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports India’s structural reform agenda remains on track, and should benefit from Prime Minister… Continue
Webcast – Near-Term Risks, Long-Term Opportunities (11min:48sec) – April 12, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). April 12 after 2:00… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – April 11, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 31, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Some caution is still warranted in the near run, given heightened political tensions… Continue
Equities – 10 Questions For Asia Ex-Japan Investors – March 28, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports 1. Will the global economic rebound continue? 2. Will the yuan be devalued… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 24, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The difficulty of legislating large policy changes in Washington is becoming apparent, setting… Continue
Webcast – EM Dollar Debt And Mexico: Overweight Now, Diverge Later (9min:26sec) – March 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 22 after… Continue
Emerging Markets – Tequila Sunrise: Upgrade Mexico – March 21, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Firming U.S. non-oil imports will boost Mexican growth momentum, narrow the current account… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 17, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are vulnerable to a correction in the near term, following recent… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 10, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global economic backdrop is brighter than has been the case for several… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – March 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Continue to overweight equities versus bonds on a 6-12 month horizon, although risks… Continue
Emerging Markets – Eastern Europe: A High Beta Play On The Euro Area Recovery? – March 2, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports Idiosyncratic factors have lowered the region’s beta to the euro area economy, and… Continue
Canada – Canada Finally Faces Its Challenges – February 28, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy has weathered the commodity fallout reasonably well, and growth conditions… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – February 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. high-yield corporate bonds will still generate positive absolute returns, but much of… Continue
Foreign Exchange – Swedish Krona: Poised To Benefit From Policy Capitulation – February 16, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Riksbank’s overly accommodative policy setting is becoming increasingly difficult to justify. The… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – February 9, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Webcast – Policy Uncertainty Amidst Improving Growth (9min:27sec) – February 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 8 after… Continue
South Africa Report – February 7, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Add to Favorite Reports A downturn in China’s housing cycle will dent Chinese demand for primary goods… Continue
Asset Allocation Report – February 2017
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Favorable economic tailwinds warrant staying cyclically overweight equities versus bonds in a global… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – February 2, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange – U.S. Dollar: Retracing The Previous Bull – January 25, 2017
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. dollar is following the roadmap provided by the 1995-2002 bull market…. Continue
Webcast – The U.S. Dollar: Following The 1995-2002 Bull Market (6min:51sec) – January 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 25 after 2:00… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 20, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports The pause in the dollar, bond yields, and equity & corporate bond prices… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – January 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global financial markets, particularly in the U.S., got a bit ahead of themselves… Continue
Emerging Market Equities Report – January 19, 2017
· Emerging Markets · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue
China – Can China Tolerate Higher Interest Rates? – January 17, 2017
· Economics & Policy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Chinese interest rates are likely to drift higher over the next 12 months,… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 13, 2017
· Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Maintain a mildly pro-growth investment stance, but be prepared for a further near-run… Continue
Webcast – MRB’s Key Themes: A Roadmap For Investors (8min:05sec) – January 11, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 11 after 2:00… Continue
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 10, 2017
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Another sustained upleg in the global stock/bond ratio is underway. While the investment… Continue
Equities – U.S. Style Cycle: Avoid Big Bets – January 3, 2017
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Upside risks to bond yields imply that value will outperform growth in the… Continue
Emerging Markets – Mexico’s Trumped Peso: Is It A Buy? – December 15, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports While credit quality has deteriorated, the odds of another peso crisis are very… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – December 6, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – November 25, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Investing Around Trumponomics – November 17, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports A Trump presidency creates more political, economic and financial market uncertainty over the… Continue
Emerging Markets – Will The Yuan Be Trumped? – November 14, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Trump’s victory means that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are likely, which would… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – October 6, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets – Myth Busting The Mexican Peso – September 20, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports While credit quality has deteriorated, the odds of another peso crisis are very… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – August 25, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – August 9, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – August 2, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Central banks will keep overall conditions very accommodative in all developed economies, although… Continue
Theme – The Brexit Dominos – July 7, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.K. pound and domestic risk assets have been beaten up, but the… Continue
Theme – Are India And Indonesia The Next China? – June 23, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports With structural reforms and appropriate macro policy, Indian growth could rise to about… Continue
Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part III): Regional Assessment – June 15, 2016
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Aggressive U.S. policy reflation has been necessary to offset contractionary forces and encourage… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – June 14, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – April 21, 2016
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – April 5, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – February 2, 2016
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – January 28, 2016
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – November 17, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – October 29, 2015
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – September 29, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange – Yuan Move Is Not The Opening Shot In A Global Currency War – August 12, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports China’s primary objective in Tuesday’s policy move was to align the yuan fixing… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – August 4, 2015
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – July 30, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – May 28, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – April 16, 2015
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – March 31, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – January 13, 2015
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – January 8, 2015
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – The Return Of “Chindia”? – October 7, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports India’s long-term growth is likely to be driven by investment and manufacturing, while… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – October 2, 2014
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange Report – September 16, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – July 24, 2014
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – April 8, 2014
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Emerging Market Foreign Exchange Report – February 11, 2014
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Underlying conditions do not support currency contagion in the EM world. However, volatility… Continue
Foreign Exchange Report – January 30, 2014
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies: Stay With Commodity Importers – November 14, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each country section (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange (Quarterly) – October 17, 2013
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies: Prefer Commodity Importers – August 1, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each country section (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Foreign Exchange (Quarterly) – July 9, 2013
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies: Paid To Wait For Growth – May 2, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each country section (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Currency Wars & Extreme Policies – April 25, 2013
· Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Stiff deleveraging headwinds in a large portion of the global economy have left… Continue
Foreign Exchange (Quarterly) – April 18, 2013
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue
Theme – Currencies & Equity Positioning – March 12, 2013
· Equities · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. dollar will strengthen versus the euro and yen on a 6-12… Continue
Theme – EM Currencies To Outperform: A Shopping List – February 7, 2013
· Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports A recovering global trade cycle implies that the pressure to competitively devalue in… Continue
Foreign Exchange (Quarterly) – January 17, 2013
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Central banks will continue to fight to contain rate expectations and limit currency… Continue
Foreign Exchange (Quarterly) – October 11, 2012
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports The correction in the U.S. dollar is nearly over and renewed strength versus… Continue
Foreign Exchange (Quarterly) – July 17, 2012
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. dollar is due for a consolidation/pullback, but the uptrend should remain… Continue
Foreign Exchange (Quarterly) – April 3, 2012
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports The major central banks are determined to provide sufficient reflationary support. Policymakers elsewhere… Continue
Foreign Exchange (Quarterly) –January 31, 2012
· Foreign Exchange ·
Add to Favorite Reports Please note: There was a Webcast on Wednesday, February 1st, which was a… Continue