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Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – Will EM Rate Cuts End The Party? – September 20, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Foreign Exchange · 

EM currencies will appreciate versus the dollar as investors come around to MRB’s no US. recession view and shift their focus to positive EM domestic currency drivers, namely strengthening relative growth momentum.

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.

Global Foreign Exchange – Distinguishing Between Winners And Losers – September 14, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S. dollar has regained strength over the past two months supported by rising interest rate differentials and stronger relative growth on the back of a further unwinding of U.S. recession fears.

Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

Canada – Housing: Sliding Down The Slippery Slope Of Hope – September 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

A massive Canadian housing bubble has been inflated in response to more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.

China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.

Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.

Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.

Webcast – Hopes Dashed By Lack Of A China Property Bailout – (5min:45sec) – August 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani ran through some recent developments in China which have triggered a material market reaction.

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.

China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…

Webcast – Gold Bulls: Beware Higher Real Bond Yields – (6min:41sec) – August 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses MRB’s outlook for gold prices in the next 6-12 months.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.

Commodities – Just Another Short-Lived Rally For Gold – July 26, 2023
 · Commodities · 

Gold prices have rebounded modestly this month, and briefly neared the top end of their post-pandemic trading range…

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.

Emerging Markets Foreign Exchange – EM Rate Cuts Are Coming – July 20, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

With conditions falling into place for a softening in the U.S. dollar’s cross rate with major DM currencies…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.

MRB TradeBook – Long Energy And Japanese Financials – July 14, 2023
Absolute Return · 

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China – Undervalued And Unloved, But Undeniably Growing – July 13, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Second-quarter earnings results are about to start rolling in, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.

Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk-On Until Bond Yields Breakout – July 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks and investors have begun capitulating closer to our view that the cost of capital has not yet reached destabilizing levels.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…

Foreign Exchange – Interest Rate Differentials Are Not Helping The U.K. Pound – June 30, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…

Foreign Exchange – The Euro Is Regaining Strength To Start The Summer – June 23, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

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Webcast – China: Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – (7min:40sec) – June 21, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.