MacroResearchBoard
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fixed-income
Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.
Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.
China – Yuan Bonds Outperform As Policy “Normalizes” – March 3, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
The Chinese economy doesn’t need stimulus, and, in fact, fiscal retrenchment will gather pace this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.
Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.
Asset Allocation – Which Inflation Hedges Are Appealing? – February 25, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
We have regularly noted that there is scope for medium term upside in the years ahead.
Emerging Markets – BRL Bonds: No More Bad News Left To Discount – February 23, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Brazilian assets have been severely punished in recent weeks as a series of negative developments, including last week’s government intervention in Petrobras
Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing An Anchor – February 19, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rebound in Treasury yields has spread abroad and has increased the odds of a correction in overbought risk asset markets.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.
Fixed Income – U.S. Yield Curve Steepening To Spread To Gilt And Bund Markets – February 12, 2021
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.
Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.
China – Chinese Divergences – February 2, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum is far above its trend growth rate, while its stock market booms, government bond yields and the currency edge higher and a central bank advisor dropped hints of policy normalization.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Free Money Forever – January 29, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity market risks have recently eased on the fundamental side, as Treasury yields have calmed, but worsened on the technical side, as speculative froth has erupted. A pause in augmenting favored positions is still warranted.
Policy – Another Year Of Hyper-Accommodative Monetary Policy – January 27, 2021
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the major developed market central banks, as well as supporting charts.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.
Fixed Income – Deleveraging Postponed In Canada Mildly Bond Bearish – January 22, 2021
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent stall in U.S. employment trends underscores the need for rapid vaccinations to clear the path to a self-reinforcing global economic expansion.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: Starting The Year With A Pop – January 15, 2021
Fixed Income ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
This report focuses primarily on the two issues: the outlook for the EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) asset class, and how investors should approach investment in Chinese government bonds.
Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.
Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
· Asset Allocation ·
Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.
China – Climbing The Wall Of Worry – January 6, 2021
· Emerging Markets ·
China continues to experience strong economic momentum, despite a stutter in December’s PMI surveys (which nevertheless remain firmly in expansionary territory).
Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.
Fixed Income – Euro Area: Scope For Higher Inflation Despite Euro Strength – December 18, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).
Global Fixed Income – 2021 Outlook: Bond Supports Slowly Fade – December 10, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
We enter 2021 with a constructive pro-growth fixed-income positioning, albeit with measured return expectations.
Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.
China – What Could Interrupt China’s Rebound in 2021? – December 3, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Chinese economic momentum is by far the strongest in the world, which supports strong global appetite for Chinese financial assets.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: The Bear Steepening Will Continue – November 20, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.
Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.
Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.
Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.
Economy – Second COVID-19 Wave Heightens Euro Area Economic Uncertainty – October 16, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.
China – Robust Recovery Offers Scant Global Comfort – October 6, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
The pace of China’s torrid post-Q1 economic rebound will ease off, but solid growth will be sustained thanks primarily to the robust service sector.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.
Global Fixed Income – The Reflationary Bridge And The Bond Market – September 25, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
U.S. and G7 government bond yields have traded in an extremely tight range of late as bond volatility has been crushed by global central banks through highly accommodative policies and strong forward guidance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.
Fixed Income – Government Bonds Crosscurrents: Higher Inflation Vs Anchored Policy Rates – August 28, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Select High-Yield Plays Will Shine – August 25, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Local currency-denominated EM debt (EMLCD) offers attractive yields in a world where investors are challenged by generally richly-valued stocks and bonds, and low expected returns in the developed markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.
Fixed Income / Foreign Exchange – U.K. Risks Warrant Cautious Positioning – August 21, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
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Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle: Did Policymakers Avoid A Final Flush? – August 20, 2020
· Themes ·
MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks as it provides a starting point when building a multi-year roadmap, and helps investors look for major inflection points.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.
Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
· Themes ·
Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.
Fixed Income/Foreign Exchange – Second COVID-19 Wave Hits Australia – July 31, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Ignore The Message From Real Yields – July 24, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.
Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.
Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
· Themes ·
The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.
Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.
Fixed Income – Next Fed Policy Support: Yield Curve Control – June 26, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – It All Comes Down To Employment And Job Security – June 19, 2020
· Uncategorized · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A correction or churning phase for equities is probable in the near term, given the sharp rebound in prices this spring and likelihood that corporate profits will not be able to return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon.
Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Bonds Are Still Appealing – June 19, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized ·
Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.
Fixed Income – A Breakthrough For The Euro Bond – June 12, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
LatAm – Sifting Through The COVID-19 Rubble – June 10, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
Local currency-denominated bonds are the best LatAm play, and should be held at overweight within an EM local-currency bond portfolio.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.
Webcast – Canada: Will The Bubble Finally Burst? – (13min:26sec) – June 2, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest outlook on the Canadian economy and asset markets, with a focus on the potential for a bursting of the housing and credit bubbles.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Broadening Equity Rally, For Now – May 29, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity rally has spread beyond U.S. large-caps into lagging bourses and sectors.
Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.
Canada – On Thin Ice As It Heats Up – May 27, 2020
Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report updates our outlook on the Canadian economy and related investment strategy in response to the pandemic and related halt in activity.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.
Fixed Income – Are Negative Interest Rates Set To Become More Widespread? – May 22, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.
Fixed Income – Will Massive Stimulus Lead To An Inflationary Environment? – May 15, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.
Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Saudi Arabia – 2020: A Replay Of Korea 1997? – April 29, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
In the EM world, the aggregate debt position of oil exporters was already far inferior to that of the broader universe before this year’s coronavirus-related collapse in oil demand.
Theme – The Great Halt Of 2020 – April 23, 2020
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report compares the current economic fallout with the previous and concludes that another Great Recession is very unlikely.
Global Fixed Income – The Fed Has A Backstop For Everything – April 21, 2020
· Fixed Income ·
In response to the sharp COVID-19 economic fallout, the Fed has adopted an unprecedented set of stimulus measures with clear positive implications for fixed-income assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.
Fixed Income – Euro Area Bonds: The ECB To The Rescue – April 9, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.
Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.
EM Fixed Income – Yet Another EM Debt Problem? – March 24, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
While coronavirus concerns have become the primary proximate driver for many asset prices, when it comes to EM debt, it is low oil prices that have most rattled global investors.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.
Emerging Markets – EM And COVID-19: First In, First Out? – March 20, 2020
Emerging Markets ·
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Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Bonds: Assessing The Fallout – March 20, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.
Fixed Income – G7 Government Bonds: Very Expensive Portfolio Insurance – March 13, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.
Webcast – COVID-19 And Investment Strategy (10min:09sec) – March 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest take on COVID-19 and how it will impact investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.
Absolute Return Strategy – Will COVID-19 End The Cycle? – February 27, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 threat arrived at a point when equity markets had an air pocket after materially rerating over the past year and were overly optimistic about the global growth outlook.
LatAm – Bonds And Rates Will Outperform – February 27, 2020
· Emerging Markets ·
LatAm’s investment landscape beyond the short term will be characterized by a modest recovery in global trade and supportive global liquidity, all of which are positive for financial assets in the region.
Euro Area – Gauging Euro Area Recession Risks – February 25, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report introduces the MRB Euro Area Recession Checklist Indicator (RCI), which is an economy-wide measure (incorporating 26 variables grouped into six broad categories) that is constructed based on the framework of the MRB U.S. Recession Checklist Indicator.
Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.
Fixed Income – Gilts: Post-Election Support Against A Mixed Outlook – February 14, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: The Goldilocks Backdrop Will Not Last – February 7, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Policy – Little Pressure On Monetary Policy This Year – February 6, 2020
· Economics & Policy ·
The challenge heading forward for policymakers will be for those markets facing housing and credit excesses that ultimately will limit, if not prevent, any monetary tightening.
Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.
Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.
Fixed Income – BoC & The Bond Market: Caught Between Crosscurrents – January 24, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Bonds: The Best Of The Credit Universe – January 21, 2020
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The outlook for EM local currency debt (EMLCD) can be summarized as “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”, but there are no steamrollers to be seen on a 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.
Fixed Income – Will Reduced Supply Drive Euro Area Bond Yields Lower? – January 17, 2020
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – No Bust, No Boom – January 10, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).
Webcast – Geopolitically-Driven Digestion Phase (8min:20sec) – January 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for capital markets in 2020, including the implications of the latest geopolitical crisis on investment strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
· Asset Allocation ·
Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Great Year And A Great Decade: Can It Continue? – December 20, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We continue to recommend a mildly pro-growth investment stance across most asset classes.
Global Fixed Income – 2020 Outlook – December 17, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
Today’s report outlines our recommended fixed-income positioning for 2020.
Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – A Slow And Modest Upturn Lies Ahead – December 6, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
While global growth should gradually firm next year, it will be insufficient to warrant a decisive risk-on investment posture.
Fixed Income – The U.S. Credit Cycle: Late Stages, But Not Over – December 6, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part II): Yield Plays – December 3, 2019
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Consolidation Before More Upside? – November 29, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The resilience of the consumer sector bodes well for the U.S. economic outlook.
Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Debt: Cracks Appear But Tight Spreads Should Persist – November 29, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Outperformance Can Continue Awhile – November 26, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
The case for overweighting EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) in a global fixed income portfolio is straightforward.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Validation – November 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There are tentative signs of a trough in manufacturing activity, but follow-through will be critical to sustain the recent breakout in equities and the global stock/bond ratio.
Fixed Income – G7 Government Bond Yields: Countertrend Bounce Or Further Upside? – November 22, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.
Weekly Macro Strategy – FOMO Versus A Challenging Earnings Outlook – November 15, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global economic activity should gradually improve in the coming year, but much strongergrowth is highly unlikely.
Fixed Income – The U.S. Yield Curve: A False Alarm – November 15, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Worries Recede Further – November 8, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Stability in manufacturing PMI surveys and the recent easing in trade tensions have spurred higher equity prices and bond yields.
Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Euro Area – Economy: Weak But Resilient – November 5, 2019
· Economics & Policy ·
Today’s report updates our euro area economic outlook and focuses on two key topics that are crucial to the euro area, namely the global auto industry and the German labor market.
Asset Allocation Strategy – No Recession, But Not Much Growth Ahead – November 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
We expect the economic expansion to continue, but there is little basis for concluding a robust rebound in activity and profits looms over the next year that would justify a decidedly pro-growth investment posture.
South Africa – Rand Bonds Will Shine, Despite Downgrade Worries – October 31, 2019
Emerging Markets ·
There’s been no shortage of negative headlines about Eskom’s bailout, its impact on South Africa’s public debt sustainability, and the potential downgrade to sub-investment-grade status.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Turn In Manufacturing – October 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Non-U.S. equities have perked up, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity will keep a lid on equity prices and bond yields.
Fixed Income – U.K. Gilts: Inflation Expectations Should Converge Lower With The U.S. – October 25, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Fixed Income – The Fed Will Deliver A Reluctant Rate Cut Next Week – October 25, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.
Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Relief, But Risks Remain – October 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global trade and manufacturing indicators are still generally weak, and the protectionist backdrop will continue to hold back the global economy.
Fixed Income – France and Germany: Leading An Upleg In Government Bond Yields? – October 18, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Bending, But Not Yet Breaking – October 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Trade policies and heightened domestic economic tensions continue to erode global economic sentiment, although not yet by enough to undermine the expansion.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Yields Reflect Multiple Distortions – October 11, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Fixed Income – U.S. High-Yield Corporate Debt: Some Cracks Appearing, But Should Ultimately Calm – October 11, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.
Canada – On Borrowed Time – October 8, 2019
· Economics & Policy ·
The increasing imbalances and building vulnerabilities of the Canadian economy have been a regular theme in our research since the commodity Supercycle crested in 2013.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.
Global Fixed Income – G7 Bonds: Priced For A Bleak Outlook – September 24, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
Our view has been that the race to negative bond yields pushed pricing too far this summer.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Growth Plus DM Liquidity: Goldilocks For Bonds – September 24, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Growth momentum in the emerging markets is lacklustre, but recession risks are low.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Absorbing Another Body Blow – September 20, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Better-than-expected U.S. growth and an upward creep in core inflation herald a pause in Fed easing.
Webcast – Oil Moves Back To Center Stage (11min:48sec) – September 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Makhjavani and Peter Perkins discuss key drivers of global capital markets including the recent disruption to Saudi production, as well as the recent sharp rise in bond yields.
Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Business Cycle Remains Resilient – September 13, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global hiring plans have stayed solid despite the downturn in manufacturing and trade, and service sector PMI surveys remain positive.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook
Webcast – U.S. & Euro Area Bonds: Is Japan The Right Roadmap? (7min:23sec) – September 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Frank Petrocca discuss the collapse in government bond yields.
Theme – The Japanification Of The U.S. And Euro Area: An Economic Reality Check – September 3, 2019
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
A decade after the Great Financial Crisis erupted policy rates remain near historic lows and a record percentage of global bond markets have negative yields.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Third Time Lucky, Or The End Of The Cycle? – August 30, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investors should refrain from aggressive positioning on the basis of expected trade talk outcomes given the difficulty of forecasting President Trump/China’s next moves.
Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.
Webcast – Bonds: The Non-Yielding Faith In Governments (8min:24sec) – August 21, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the collapse in government bond yields and provided perspective on how extreme current bond market pricing has become.
Global Fixed Income – The Race To Negative Bond Yields – August 13, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
Global bond yields have melted this year in response to an extreme dovish shift by the major central banks and a ratcheting up of trade tensions.
Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).
U.S. – Fed Policy: One For The Global Economy – August 1, 2019
· Economics & Policy ·
As widely anticipated, the Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 bps at yesterday’s meeting, aiming to insure the U.S. economy against negative global developments.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Still Lacking A Catalyst – July 26, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global manufacturing weakness is persisting, which is dampening economic sentiment and investor risk-taking.
Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.
Latam – Is Brazil Really A Better Credit Than Mexico? – July 23, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
The steady change in perceptions of economic/political risks in Brazil versus Mexico has seen Brazilian financial assets massively outperform their Mexican counterparts…
Weekly Macro Strategy – It May Be Unnecessary, But… – July 19, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity investors remain wary of taking risk outside of U.S. large-cap stocks, implying that there is still considerable sidelined cash to buy equities – but only if economic confidence improves.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Growing Inflation Risks – July 19, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s A Grind – July 12, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed is committed to a rate cut later this month, and will stay dovish even after economic news improves.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: Overextended Conditions Warn Of An Imminent Bounce – July 12, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.
Webcast – Snack On EM Debt While Watching The U.S./China Slugfest (6min:49sec) – July 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani discussing the implications of the G20 summit for various EM assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.
Fixed Income – U.S. Fixed-Income Performance During Past Mid/Late Cycle Fed Rate Cuts – June 28, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Fed, ECB Will Flatter EM Bond Returns – June 27, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Central banks sometimes offer precautionary easing in the face of threats that do not subsequently play out as feared – an example being the Fed’s response to the LTCM episode, which sustained a well-advanced investment cycle.
Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Binary Outcomes – June 21, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed has now shifted full-circle to the dovish side. However, the forward markets are too aggressive in terms of expected rate cuts this year, unless economic activity deteriorates meaningfully, which we do not expect.
Fixed Income – Coordinated G3 Policy Easing? – June 21, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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China – Will China Reflate, And What Would It Mean If It Did? – June 19, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Once a month, we review current Chinese macroeconomic indicators for signs of shifting momentum, potential policy adjustments and the outlook for China-related assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Crosscurrents Continue – June 14, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global equity and credit markets remain caught between mounting trade tensions, and supportive monetary conditions and positive underlying corporate profitability.
Fixed Income – Euro Area Bonds: ECB Provides Some Near-Term Support – June 14, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.
Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
· Themes ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.
Fixed Income – Scenario Analysis For A Unique Treasury Yield Curve – May 24, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy ·
The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Protecting Some Profits – May 17, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are protecting profits and downgrading equities to neutral within a multi-asset portfolio, following the powerful run-up in prices this year and recent escalation in trade tensions.
Fixed Income – Developed Commodity Markets: Stay Long – May 17, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: A Limited Relief Valve -May 10, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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South Africa – Underwhelming Politics, But A Disaster Was Avoided – May 9, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
This week’s elections failed to deliver a convincing enough mandate for President Ramaphosa to carry out root-and-branch structural reforms, and while it is difficult to identify a long term winner, the clear loser is private sector investment and job creation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.
Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.
Webcast – Blowing Bubbles (9min:15sec) – May 1, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Central banks have used subdued consumer price inflation to justify keeping policy ultra-accommodative.
Theme – A Bubbly World: A Critique Of The Fed’s Pivot – April 30, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Central banks have used subdued consumer price inflation to justify keeping policy ultra-accommodative.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The Pain Trades Rolls On – April 26, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Central banks, including the Fed, will stay dovish until after better economic data arrives, which bodes well for equities and credit.
Fixed Income – U.S. Inflation Protection: Still Room For Outperformance – April 26, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – It’s All About The Carry Now – April 25, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
Yields on EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have declined dramatically in recent months, in line with the trend in U.S. Treasurys.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Don’t Short U.S. Corporate Profits – April 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The improvement in the Chinese economy is gaining momentum, and will provide a lift to global activity and support risk asset prices.
Fixed Income – Favor Canada, But Stay Short Duration – April 18, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – Monetary Reflation In A Deleveraging World (12min:30sec) – April 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
The mechanics and impact of monetary policy have been heavily debated from the onset of the Great Recession and has heated up again since the Fed whipsawed investors with a massive pivot.
Webcast – Signs Of An Economic Inflection Point (9min:18sec) – April 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Global Fixed Income – Did Treasury Investors Cry Wolf Again? – April 9, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
There has been a tendency by investors and central banks to overreact to softer economic data in recent years and prematurely forecast an imminent U.S. (and global) recession, much like the boy who cried wolf.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Fork In The Road – March 29, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The sharp bounce in risk asset prices this quarter is due for a pause. A resumption in the uptrend needs evidence that global economic activity is firming.
Fixed Income – Australia: Economic Clouds Are Gathering, Favor Aussie Bonds – March 29, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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U.S. – Yield Curve: Is Anything Really Different This Time? – March 28, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
U.S. Treasury curve inversions are rare and have a solid historical record of preceding U.S. business cycle peaks.
Webcast – Client Requests Of The Month (9min:19sec) – March 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflation Top Up – March 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Fed added additional economic insurance this week, which will cap bond yields, but provide further fuel for risk asset prices.
Fixed Income – G7 Bonds: Central Banks Give Steering Wheel To Inflation – March 22, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Tortoise Cycle – March 15, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The window of opportunity for further gains in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist for the next 6 to 12 months.
Fixed Income – ECB Policy Easing: A Modest Positive For The Euro Area Economy – March 15, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.
Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.
Fixed Income – BoC: The Pressure Is Off – March 1, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Flickers Of Life – February 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A calm bond market, sidelined central banks and good odds that corporate earnings will grind higher this year, all bode well for equities and credit.
Fixed Income – German Bunds: Pricing In Too Bleak Of An Outlook – February 22, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Testing Times – February 15, 2019
· Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Some key equity indexes are breaking above resistance levels and high-yield corporate bond spreads are narrowing, which bode well for risk assets.
Policy – What If Foreigners Retreat From U.S. Treasurys? – February 14, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
The U.S. budget deficit is ballooning, while net foreign demand for Treasury securities is drying up.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Fixed Income Will Outperform – February 14, 2019
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local-currency bond yields are highly correlated with U.S. Treasury yields, and as the latter have eased back from early October highs, so have EM yields.
Policy – Synchronized Moderation Temporarily Halts The Great Monetary Unwind – February 12, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
The U.S.-led gradual global monetary unwind has temporarily paused, with the Fed recently moving to the sidelines.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Pain Trade Persist? – February 8, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth has softened, but key demand engines are in good shape.
Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.
Global Fixed Income – Navigating The Cyclical And Secular Crosscurrents – February 6, 2019
· Fixed Income ·
This report analyzes the forces driving the recent drop in U.S. and G7 government bond yields and whether cyclical forces have shifted sustainably in support of bonds.
Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.
Emerging Markets – Latam Play: Brazilian Stocks And Mexican Bonds Will Win – January 31, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
Brazil and Mexico typically compete for Latam portfolio flows. Today’s report concludes that investors are likely to rotate into Mexican peso bonds as the relative risk/reward profile has tilted against Brazilian local bonds.
Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It’s Late, But Not Yet Over – January 25, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent equity market low (high in corporate bond spreads) should hold, but a re-test is still possible.
Fixed Income – U.S. Yield Curve: Distorted By Investor Uncertainty – January 25, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part II) – January 24, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second of a two-part MRB Theme Report that outlines several non-consensus views about the next global recession and environment
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.
Fixed Income – U.K. Gilts: Priced For Stagflation – January 18, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Calmer Heads Prevail? – January 11, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk asset markets overreacted to a modest deterioration in the fundamentals in late-2018.
Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Is The Rally Over? – January 11, 2019
Fixed Income ·
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Charts – China: Growth Trends Diverge Sharply – January 10, 2019
· Emerging Markets ·
A bearish narrative pervades investor interpretation of Chinese economic data
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.
Webcast – Excessive Pessimism Priced In (10min:32sec) – January 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest asset allocation strategy, arguing that markets are discounting an overly bearish economic outlook in 2019.
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Precarious Footing – January 4, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Markets are discounting a pronounced further slowdown in global economic growth in 2019, with a significant probability of recession.
Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It Is Either/Or – December 21, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The FOMC (and chair Powell) stumbled in its communication strategy this week.
Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.
Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Outperformance Will Continue – December 20, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) has demonstrated extraordinary resilience recently by outperforming U.S. Treasurys in a year buffeted by trade war angst, a purported EM “currency crisis”
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.
WMS – Fixed Income – Bond Bear Merely Taking A Breather – December 14, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.
Webcast – Stylized Investment Cycle: Navigating The Endgame (11min:42sec) – December 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Global equity markets are in turmoil, as investors are rapidly downgrading the growth expectations and starting to panic about the potential for a global recession.
Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle: Extended Topping Out Process – December 4, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since we introduced it to clients earlier this decade.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-Off Pressures Ease – November 30, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Worries that the Fed will prematurely turn restrictive have diminished, helping to calm the Treasury market.
Charts – U.S. Corporate Debt: The Economy Trumps Leverage – November 27, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
Anxiety about the outlook for U.S. corporate debt has escalated recently, as evidenced by the sharp rise in corporate bond spreads.
Charts – China: Stocks Stir, Will The Economy Follow? – November 26, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Something is stirring in China’s mainland bourses: for the past month the local CSI300 index has been under less pressure than the MSCI China index.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.
Brazil – Overdone, Or Just Getting Started? – November 20, 2018
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange ·
Brazilian stocks, bonds and the Real have all been on a tear since their trough in September, benefitting our overweight positions in EM equity, bond and currency portfolios.
WMS – Fixed-Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: Extended Consolidation – November 16, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.
Webcast – DM Sovereign Debt Risks: Assessing Structural Vulnerabilities (9min:35sec) – November 14, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 14 after… Continue
Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt Risks: Are There Any Safe-Havens? – November 13, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
Mismanagement of public finances leaves several developed markets susceptible to sovereign debt strains when the next global recession eventually arrives.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back To Gridlock – November 9, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
U.S. politics will remain “noisy”, but should have an overall benign impact on the economy and financial markets.
U.K. – Gilts: A No-Win Secular Bet – November 8, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
The medium- and long-term outlook for longer-dated U.K. Gilts is extremely poor.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Excessive Growth Anxiety – November 2, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Last month’s market reaction was largely overdone. That U.S. economic and earnings growth are in the process of peaking which goes without saying given that this year’s fiscal stimulus will fade in 2019.
Global Fixed Income – Normalization Vs Destabilization – November 1, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
Our view remains that government bond yields will move up in waves, with each successive wave higher exposing more unbalanced segments of the global economy that have become reliant on a permanently cheap cost of capital.
Webcast – The End Of Cheap Money: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (8min:57sec) – October 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). October 31 after… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Sentiment Versus Fundamentals – October 26, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.
WMS – Fixed Income – Shrinking The Fed’s Balance Sheet: Still Much Ado About Nothing – October 26, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Theme – The Great Monetary Unwind: Who Will Join? – October 25, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
There has been a massive shift in global imbalances over the past decade as U.S. and euro area households (the previous weak links) restored their balance sheets
U.S. – Moving With The Fed’s Anchor – October 25, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been responsive to the increases in the FOMC’s median estimate of the neutral policy rate this year.
Webcast – Bond Yields, Choke Points & Relief Valves (12min:26sec) – October 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Financial markets have been shaken as investors have rapidly adjusted their expectations to reflect a higher bond yield environment.
South Africa – Circles Or Spirals? – October 23, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
It has been a turbulent year for South African financial assets, starting with a euphoric rally after President Ramaphosa’s victory in December 2017, and then giving back earlier gains as investors’ patience broke in the summer.
Theme – The Casualties Of Interest Rate Normalization – October 22, 2018
Absolute Return · · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
There has been a massive shift in global imbalances over the past decade. The U.S. and euro area household sectors have delevered, making them less sensitive to rising interest rates and bond yields.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflective, Not Restrictive – October 19, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The equity market is at risk in the near run as investors grapple with the threat of rising interest rates and concerns about the economic outlook.
WMS – Fixed Income – 30-Year Versus 10-Year Treasury: Greater Risk, Same (Inadequate) Reward – October 19, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Charts – U.S. Interest Rates Aren’t Biting Yet – October 18, 2018
· Economics & Policy ·
The recent jump in U.S. bond yields has raised concerns that interest rates could threaten the U.S. growth outlook and leveraged borrowers in particular.
Emerging Markets – Brazil and Mexico: A Phoenix, Not A Dragon – October 16, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Factors that caused investors to lose faith with Brazil and Mexico earlier this year are now reversing and both markets are well set to deliver positive absolute and relative performance.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Bond Yields Reach A Choke Point – October 12, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.
WMS – Fixed Income – Another Wave Higher In U.S. Treasury Yields – October 12, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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WMS – Equities – Japan Equities: Still Not Getting Much Respect – October 12, 2018
Equities ·
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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Limited Growth Risks And Attractive Valuations – October 11, 2018
· Emerging Markets · Fixed Income ·
After a period of EM local-currency bond underperformance in recent months, investors are increasingly distinguishing between those selected EM assets.
Webcast – A Fresh Test For Investors (8min:45sec) – October 10, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Bond Bear Bites Again – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
The abrupt breakout in U.S. Treasury yields over the past week caught many investors by surprise and sent shockwaves through financial asset markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bond Bear Growls – October 5, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The breakout in U.S Treasury yields represents a fresh challenge to a global economy that has been resilient this year, thanks to ongoing policy support and still-positive cyclical dynamics.
Theme – A Secular Upshift In Inflation (Part II) – October 2, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
This is the concluding part of a two-part MRB Theme Report analyzing the underlying shift in the trend of global consumer price inflation.
Theme – A Secular Upshift In Inflation (Part I) – September 26, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
There has been a profound yet extremely underappreciated upshift in the underlying pulse of global inflation over the past decade.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Is The Worst Over? – September 21, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy ·
On/off trade worries are again receding, spurring a risk-on phase. The global stock/bond ratio has room to rise, as positive economic fundamentals will persist.
WMS – Fixed Income – U.S. Yield Curve: The Case For A Bear Steepening – September 21, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Opposing Forces – September 14, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Once again, there are glimmers of hope on the trade front. A meaningful easing in tensions would signal that the risk-on backdrop in the U.S. will spread abroad.
WMS – Fixed Income – Will Market Turmoil Delay The ECB – September 14, 2018
Equities ·
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Charts – The Credit Cycle: Late But Too Soon To Abandon Spread For Quality – September 11, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
After nearly a decade of depressed G7 government bond yields and a global search for yield, there are very few remaining appealing opportunities within fixed-income markets.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Liquidity Fears Are Overdone – September 7, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Fears of a squeeze on global liquidity are increasing, as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and continues its grad
Known Unknowns: The Keys To Investment Strategy – August 30, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income ·
In an era of mega data, algorithm-based investing, and information overload, many of the ultimate keys to economic and capital markets performance depend on judgments about abstract, unknowable variables.
Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Surmounting The Hurdles (Yet Again) – August 24, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth has stabilized at historically solid levels, underscoring that conditions remain supportive of equity markets and bearish for bonds.
WMS – Fixed Income – Differentiating Among The Developed Commodity Markets – August 24, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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A Primer On IMF Rescue Plans: A Turkish Example – August 20, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets ·
Turkey is staring at a currency, banking and economic crisis as its access to foreign finance dries up.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-On Or Risk-Off? – August 17, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The Turkish meltdown should not have an escalating domino effect on the EM world, nor on overall global economic activity.
WMS – Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Bonds: Better Than Treasurys, But… – August 17, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Looking To Upgrade Equities – August 10, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Underlying economic and corporate earnings prospects are still positive, but an easing in trade tensions is needed to lift non-U.S. equity market sentiment.
WMS – Fixed Income – U.K. Gilts: Remain Overweight – August 10, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Asset Allocation Strategy – Markets In Limbo – August 3, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets remain in limbo, with key equity, bond and currency benchmarks still largely range-bound.
Global Fixed Income – Lifting The Yield Anchors – August 2, 2018
· Fixed Income ·
G7 government bonds continue to digest their selloff in the first half of the year, but another wave higher in yields will begin later this year
U.S. – U.S. Fed Policy: Gearing Up To Complicated Times – July 27, 2018
· Economics & Policy · Fixed Income ·
FOMC members are confronting an economic and political environment considerably more complex than during the first half of the year.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back From The Brink? – July 27, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There was a glimmer of hope this week that the U.S. will not push the world into a spiral of protectionism.
WMS – Fixed Income – Will The BoJ Join The Monetary Unwind? – July 27, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Webcast – MRB Q&A: Top Questions From Clients (9min:35sec) – July 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins answers some of the key client questions we have recently received, ranging from the impact of trade protectionism on investment strategy to the outlook for gold.
Latam – Latin America: Short Term Pain Will Give Way To Long Term Gain – July 19, 2018
· Emerging Markets ·
Latam financial assets have been buffeted by the combination of rising global protectionist threats and self-inflicted wounds in Argentina, Brazil and until recently, Mexico.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – No Blinking So Far – July 13, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The trade war has not de-escalated. Thus, equity prices will remain at risk in the near run, and bond prices will stay supported.
WMS – Fixed Income – A Dovish Hike From The Bank Of Canada – July 13, 2018
Fixed Income ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – The Churn Continues – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report revisits three topics that continue to be heavily debated and which we believe investors are focused inappropriately.