Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022


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fixed-income

 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.



 

Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.



 

Webcast – China: How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – (7min:47sec) – May 18, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for China’s economy and markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Case For EM Debt Is In Relative, Not Absolute Terms – May 12, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The primary bogeyman for EM debt, both in its local currency (EMLCD) and hard currency (EM$D) variants, is a negative global growth shock.



 

Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.



 

Policy – U.S.: The Fed Steps It Up, Hoping For A Break Later – May 5, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

China – How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – May 5, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese stocks and its currency have been buffeted by the fallout from draconian lockdowns that have spread out from the major trade hubs of the country during the course of March and April.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue



 

Webcast – The Great Bond Market Capitulation – (7min:48sec) – April 27, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses this year’s dramatic selloff in government bonds and provides a roadmap of what to expect heading forward.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.



 

Theme – Government Bonds: This Is What Capitulation Looks Like (Phase 1) – April 21, 2022
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The violent selloff in U.S. and G7 government bonds reflects the beginning of a major capitulation by both central banks and bond bulls



 

Roundtable – Emerging Market Winners And Losers From The Russia/Ukraine War – (67min:04sec) – April 20, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing some of the geopolitical considerations arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.



 

Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Curve: What’s The Message, If Anything? – March 31, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has become a topic of high interest once again, now that it has become flat beyond 2 years, with segments of the curve mildly inverting.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Fed Plays Catch-Up – March 30, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The sell-off in the global fixed-income market has been severe over the past several months, particularly for U.S. Treasurys.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.



 

Webcast – Looking Beyond The 0-1 Geopolitical Bet – (10min:42sec) – March 9, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and investment strategy for the next 6-12 months in the context of the Ukraine war.



 

Latam – Will Latam Win The Russia/Ukraine War? – March 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Russia/Ukraine war is undoubtedly a near-term headwind for Latin America’s financial assets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.



 

EM – Debt’s Russia Problem: Third Time A Charm? – March 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The restriction on Russian access to SWIFT and blocking sanctions on the foreign assets of the Bank of Russia (BoR – the central bank) has tipped Russian debt into what looks to be an inevitable slide toward technical default.



 

Economy – Assessing Total Inflation Risks In The Developed World – March 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The MRB Total Inflation Measure offers a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures within an economy by including other sources of inflationary/disinflationary pressures beyond consumer price inflation.