fixed-income


 

China – Economic Momentum Firms – June 13, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Investors taking note of the firming of China’s economic momentum will probably be rewarded by placing their bets on this recovery outside the country for the time being.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The End Is Not Nigh – June 7, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

While the catalyst for an end of the economic expansion is not yet in place, the investment landscape is likely to be choppy over the next 6-12 months…



 

Webcast – U.S. Inflation Outlook: Is The Consensus Too Complacent? – (10min:49sec) – June 6, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The Federal Reserve and bond market continue to use the 25-year period of low inflation prior to the pandemic as their baseline for forecasting inflation…



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Inflation: What Will Be The Underlying Run Rate? – June 5, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The Fed and bond investors now place a tremendous emphasis on each inflation release to determine potential shifts in the fed funds rate, despite the volatile and lagging nature of the monthly data.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Policy Rates, But Higher Bond Yields: This Won’t Last – May 31, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields are firming anew, which threatens the risk-on backdrop.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Reckoning Is Inevitable – May 30, 2024
 · 

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This old saw is especially relevant as the macro drivers of strong capital market returns over most of the past 40 years no longer pertain.



 

Webinar – Emerging Markets: Navigating Global Cross Currents – (61min:41sec) – May 22, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

As the global trade cycle recovers and China’s growth firms, the backdrop for EM assets appears solid.



 

Foreign Exchange – Is The Japanese Yen Building A Floor? – May 21, 2024
 · Foreign Exchange · 

Japanese monetary conditions remain exceptionally easy compared with the other major developed economies and the yen is extremely undervalued.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Hope Versus Reality – May 17, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. inflation is proving stubborn, and holding well above the Fed’s 2% target.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Resilience, Rotation And Divergences – May 10, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is slowly improving, led by the still-strong U.S. Although the DM weak-link economies have slowed, they are not yet signaling undue stress.



 

China – Stocks Rally Just As Earnings Fade – May 9, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

It is rare for the momentum of stock prices and of forward earnings to move in opposite directions, but the current rally in Chinese stocks appears to be led by domestic retail investors…



 

Webcast – The Economy, Not The Fed Will Drive Markets – (13min:02sec) – May 7, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Bank On Fed Rate Cuts – May 3, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Swings in expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to drive global capital market performance.



 

Policy – Fed: Inflation Reins-In The Easing Bias – May 2, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

Recent firm U.S. inflation reports have reined-in the Fed’s easing bias, with the Fed now less confident that inflation will make steady progress toward its 2% goal in the months ahead.



 

Absolute Return – Capitalizing On G7 Central Bank Missteps And Divergences – May 2, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

Many investors and strategists focus far too much attention on reading the proverbial tea leaves of central banks (particularly the Federal Reserve) to decipher how policymakers intend to shift interest rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Buckle Up: The Backdrop Will Be Challenging – April 26, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Remain underweight bonds within a multi-asset portfolio. Monetary conditions are not yet restrictive, as is evident by firming global growth.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Correction, But Not (Yet) A Bear Market – April 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk asset markets will remain under pressure until the Treasury market calms.



 

Policy – Memo To Central Banks: Mind The Output Gap – April 16, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The output gap is a straight-forward and powerful economic concept—is current GDP above or below potential GDP?



 

Video – Secular Stagnation: A Disastrous Assumption – (16min:15sec) – April 16, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

One of the most damaging assumptions ever made by policymakers, especially the Federal Reserve, as well as the broader investment community, was that the world fell into Secular Stagnation in the 2010s.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Maybe 5%, Not 4%, Is The New 2% – April 12, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A still robust U.S. economy and an improving global economic backdrop are positive for corporate profits and the global stock/bond ratio.



 

China – Earnings Are Lagging The Economy – April 11, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

In the face of near-universal bearishness among the chattering classes overseas about its economic prospects…



 

Economy – What’s Up With U.S. Inflation? – April 10, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · 

The pickup in U.S. consumer price inflation this year has put the Fed in an uncomfortable position given its guidance to cut the policy rate multiple times this year.



 

Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Any Juice Left To Squeeze? – April 4, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

EM local currency debt (EMLCD) and its US$-denominated counterpart (EM$D) have sharply outperformed U.S. and G7 government bonds over the past two years.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Long-Run Tailwind For Treasury Yields – March 28, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Signs of froth have emerged, but risk-on should persist until the next sustained rise in DM government bond yields develops, which we do not expect in the coming months.



 

Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Last Yield Anchor Lifts – March 26, 2024
 · Fixed Income · 

G7 government bond yields have bounced meaningfully this year as investors paired back their expectations for deep central bank rate cuts.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Free Money Era Is Officially Over – March 22, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Further near-run upside is probable in risk asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Rate-Cutting Window Closes Another Notch – March 15, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Ongoing U.S. economic strength and an improving global economic outlook warn against complacency on the inflation outlook.



 

China – CSI 300 Stocks Are Stirring – March 7, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Although the U.S. stock market continues to outperform all its foreign competitors, including China, this performance has been driven by the extraordinary gains of a handful of mega-cap stocks that carry significant valuation risk.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Time To Diversify – March 5, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The economic and policy environment remains supportive of pro-growth investments, but the rally is not without risks.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – One Window Is Closing, Is Another Opening? – February 23, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed et al have set themselves up for yet another pivot. The hoped-for return of inflation to 2 percent is not going to occur.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticky Inflation: Is 4% The New 2%? – February 16, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed et al have set themselves up for yet another pivot. The hoped-for return of inflation to 2% is not going to occur.



 

MRB TradeBook – Closed One Trade, And Added Two New Positions – February 16, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes in positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: NEW –… Continue



 

Webcast – The Fed & U.S. Treasurys: Lessons From The 1980s – (10min:27sec) – February 14, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Phillip Colmar discusses one of our big picture themes.



 

China – Defibrillator Applied To Equities, Again – February 8, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese policymakers have once again applied the defibrillator to stock market sentiment.



 

Theme – U.S. Economy: “No Landing” Is Underway – February 7, 2024
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis month we are highlighting our research on the U.S. economy and one of… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…



 

Theme – The Fed & U.S. Treasurys: Mirroring The 1980s – February 1, 2024
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

In many ways, the bond market is now mirroring (inversely) the early- to mid-1980s, which has been one of our core fixed-income themes in recent years.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downgrade Alert(s) – January 26, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. economic conditions do not warrant lower policy rates, and such conditions are not likely to develop in 2024.



 

Webcast – U.S. High-Yield Corporate Bonds Should Outperform In 2024 – (9min:39sec) – January 24, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 6-12 month outlook for U.S. high-yield corporate bonds and appropriate positioning within a fixed-income portfolio.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Another Positive Year Ahead – January 23, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

EM government debt, both local currency (EMLCD) and US$-denominated (EM$D), handily outperformed their developed market (DM) counterparts last year…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks Is At Risk – January 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The front-running of DM policy rate cuts has eased only slightly of late, and is still far too aggressive relative to the economic/inflation outlook. 



 

Absolute Return Strategy – From “Soft Landing” To “No Landing” – January 18, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The equity and bond market are both priced for a Goldilocks U.S. economic outcome that is unlikely to persist as the year progresses.



 

Webinar – Canada’s Housing Crisis & Impact For Investors – (49min:00sec) – January 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist, has made headlines in Canada by expressing MRB’s view on Canadian housing, the BoC and implications for domestic investors.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. High-Yield Corporate Debt: Still Some Juice Left – January 16, 2024
 · Fixed Income · 

As is the case in most cycles, the economy, rather than a maturity wall or refinancing risk, will be the crucial driver of U.S. high-yield (HY) corporate bond performance in 2024.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Aggressive Rate-Cut Expectations Leave Most Markets Vulnerable – January 12, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth prospects were already modestly upbeat last autumn and have improved further due to much lower DM policy rate expectations and the sizable rebound in global financial markets.



 

China – Reform Chatter Fails To Inspire Investors (So Far) – January 11, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Two recent events have raised the prospect that Chinese policymakers might be inclined to bite the bullet on significant structural reform.



 

Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2023 Review – January 9, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – 2024: More Pivots Ahead – December 22, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase is stretched and due for a pause. However, a return to risk-off is unlikely until bond yields resume rising, which is still some ways off.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Demand, Corporate Profitability, And Inflation Are All Resilient – December 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The deceleration in DM inflation will peter out with underlying inflation still well above central bank targets if the global economic expansion rolls on, as we expect.



 

2024 Absolute Return Outlook – Focus On The Tails – December 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

2023 has turned out to be a rollercoaster for financial asset markets, with investors flipflopping on the recession call and outlook for policy rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Learning Curve – December 8, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The aggressive front-running of the next rate-cutting cycle is working at cross purposes to monetary policy and will prolong the expansion, as signaled by the sharp flip from risk-off to risk-on in recent weeks.



 

2024 China Outlook – Steady Growth Ahead – December 7, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Although few headlines in the financial media reflect this, 2023 was a year of solid, if patchy, economic growth momentum in China, which is closing out well ahead of mid-year consensus expectations.



 

2024 Asset Allocation Outlook – A Maturing Cycle, But The End Is Not Yet Nigh – December 1, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

A global or U.S. recession is not yet in the cards for 2024, although the lifespan of the economic expansion is inevitably shortening.



 

Webinar – EM ex-China Behind The Wheel, China In The Backseat – (59min:33sec) – November 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek addressed the outlook for EM assets in absolute and relative terms over the coming 6-12 months.



 

Webcast – Developed Economies, Central Banks & Bonds: What To Expect In 2024? – (9min:37sec) – November 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the outlook for developed economies, central bank policies, and bond market performance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.



 

2024 Fixed Income Outlook – Diverging Trends – November 22, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

MRB’s fixed-income outlook for 2023 panned out exceptionally well. Our view a year ago was that the global cost of capital was still accommodative and not yet threatening the global economy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.



 

Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.



 

Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.



 

China – Growth: Half-Full, Or Half-Empty? – November 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese household consumption is the new version of the analogy of the glass being half full or empty.



 

Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…



 

Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.



 

Theme – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
 · Themes · 

The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.



 

Fixed Income – Focus On Rates Not The Slope Of The Yield Curve – October 19, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

There has been a notable increase in chatter about the implications of the recent steepening or de-inverting of the U.S. 2/10 Treasury curve, with some arguing it signals that a recession looms.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: More Tailwinds – October 17, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

EM economic growth momentum is firming, which is credit-positive and has been historically accompanied by tightening EM bond spreads.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.



 

Fixed Income – U.S.: Parsing The Upside In Treasury Yields – October 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The meaningful rise in U.S. long-term bond yields since April has been driven by both cyclical and noncyclical factors.



 

China – Recovery Steps Up A Notch – October 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

What will it take for foreign investors to shake off their bearishness on Chinese assets?



 

Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.



 

Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Canada – Housing: Sliding Down The Slippery Slope Of Hope – September 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

A massive Canadian housing bubble has been inflated in response to more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.



 

China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.



 

Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.



 

Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.



 

Webcast – Hopes Dashed By Lack Of A China Property Bailout – (5min:45sec) – August 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani ran through some recent developments in China which have triggered a material market reaction.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.



 

China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…



 

Global Fixed Income – Another Upwave In Bond Yields Is Inevitable – August 9, 2023
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

After a brief reprieve beginning late last year, bonds have faced further losses since May as economy bears were caught wrongfooted on calls for a recession.



 

Webcast – Gold Bulls: Beware Higher Real Bond Yields – (6min:41sec) – August 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses MRB’s outlook for gold prices in the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.



 

Webcast – EM Debt: Solid Growth And Rate Cuts Sustain Outperformance – (8min:52sec) – August 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Amr Abdel Khalek discusses the outlook for emerging market government bonds.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Stars Align For EM Local-Currency Debt – July 27, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Emerging market (EM) growth will accelerate over the next 6-12 months, driven primarily by EM Asia.



 

Commodities – Just Another Short-Lived Rally For Gold – July 26, 2023
 · Commodities · 

Gold prices have rebounded modestly this month, and briefly neared the top end of their post-pandemic trading range…



 

Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.



 

Theme – Artificial Intelligence: Less Than Meets The Eye For Equities – July 18, 2023
 · Themes · 

We are optimistic that A.I. can boost U.S. economic growth and productivity, although we caution that any estimate of the magnitude embodies considerable guesswork…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.



 

China – Undervalued And Unloved, But Undeniably Growing – July 13, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Second-quarter earnings results are about to start rolling in, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.



 

Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk-On Until Bond Yields Breakout – July 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks and investors have begun capitulating closer to our view that the cost of capital has not yet reached destabilizing levels.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…



 

Webcast – China: Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – (7min:40sec) – June 21, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.



 

Policy – U.S.: The Fed Acknowledges Economic Resilience – June 15, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

As we expected, the Fed kept the policy rate unchanged at yesterday’s FOMC meeting.



 

China – Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – June 15, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Mixed Signals = Overweight On Cash – June 2, 2023
Asset Allocation · 

Markets are providing decidedly mixed signals about the economic outlook, highlighting investor uncertainty.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Firming Growth And Rate Cuts Will Sustain Outperformance – June 1, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Firming growth (in the context of disinflation), especially in EM Asia, will improve credit risk of EM local currency debt (EMLCD) relative to DM peers.



 

Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.



 

Fixed Income – The Irony Of The Inverted Yield Curve – May 26, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Isn’t Over – May 19, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist over the summer.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Late Cycle: Leaning Against The Consensus Yet Again – May 18, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The economic expansion has matured, and the investment cycle is now late.



 

Webcast – China: Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – (7min:10sec) – May 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.



 

Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.



 

Policy – The Pressure To Tighten Has Eased, But Not Disappeared – April 25, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.



 

Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.



 

China – A “New” China: Growth Without Stimulus, Exports Or Housing – April 6, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

China’s reopening and economic recovery is finally observable in the hard economic data, rather than only from surveys.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Back To Pre-SVB Levels? – March 31, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain constructive on global economic prospects for the next 6-12 months, and do not expect much fallout from this month’s banking problems.



 

Webcast – The Toppling Of Economic Dominos – (8min:26sec) – March 30, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar provides a contrast between the current macro environment compared to that of the 2010s.



 

Global Fixed Income – Snapping Weak Links – March 29, 2023
 · Fixed Income · 

Volatility in the U.S. and G7 government bond markets has surged again in response to U.S. and European banking system strains.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt: Resilient And Poised To Outperform – March 23, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The return outlook for both EM local currency (EMLCD) and U.S. dollar debt may appear unappealing at first glance given how tight spreads are against their U.S. counterparts.



 

Theme – Making Money During China’s Demographic Decline – March 21, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Themes · 

China’s official population count for 2022 was published in January and showed 9.6m births, outweighed by 10.4m deaths.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.



 

China – Surveys Show Recovery, Hard Data Will Follow – March 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

“Soft” data from surveys are showing China’s robust recovery is underway, but the usual seasonal distortions in hard data make it difficult to calibrate the implications for overall economic momentum for the time being.



 

Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.



 

Webcast – Equity Dilemma: Stronger Economy Vs Higher Bond Yields – (10min:05sec) – February 22, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the major macro forces driving equities and bonds and narrows in on the current outlook for investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.



 

Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.



 

Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue



 

China – Services Rebound, Broader Consumption Should Follow – February 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

The traditional travel boom during the Lunar New Year holiday period took place in January…



 

Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.



 

Korea – Export Recovery Papers The Cracks, For Now – January 26, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Korea’s equity market massively underperformed emerging market peers (EM), leaving valuations at extremely attractive levels…



 

Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2022 Review – January 24, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Goldilocks Favors EM Debt – January 19, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

For an investor whose only insight into the EM debt asset class is a chart plotting the spread between EM debt and U.S. Treasury bonds…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.



 

Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.



 

China – Re-Opening Is Palpable, If Not Yet Measurable – January 5, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

High frequency data and anecdotal evidence suggest that Chinese workers and consumers are shaking off the tsunami of infections arising from the sudden abandonment of the COVID-zero policy.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Global Economic Headwinds Easing – December 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some economic headwinds have recently eased, even as the major DM central banks have continued to hike their policy rates.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.



 

Theme – U.S. Treasurys: Rhyming (Inversely) With The 1980s – December 8, 2022
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

It is common for investor expectations and market pricing to persistently lag economic fundamentals at secular turning points.



 

2023 China Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…



 

2023 Fixed Income Outlook – Some Calm Before The Next Storm – December 6, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

We expect a calmer period for global bond markets, at least during the first half of 2023. Thereafter, bond markets will face renewed headwinds, since the level of yields still does not reflect that the disinflationary era is over.



 

2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.



 

Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;



 

Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.



 

Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Smaller Hikes, But For Longer – November 3, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued a fourth consecutive 75 bps rate hike at yesterday’s FOMC meeting but signaled a step-down in the pace of rate increases at upcoming policy meetings.



 

China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Will Trump Dollar Debt – October 27, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Spreads for EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have come screaming in over the past three months



 

Policy – U.S: Inflation Will Complicate A Fed Pivot – October 25, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Persistent upside surprises in core CPI inflation through Q3 have fueled a debate on whether an outsize lagged rise in rent inflation is exaggerating inflation’s strength.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.



 

Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue



 

Webcast – Elevated Inflation Has Made Central Banks Blindly Hawkish – (5min:00sec) – October 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, we discuss monetary policy based on last week’s MRB Research Highlight, that “tighter” monetary policy is still required in the developed world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.



 

Fixed Income – German Bunds: How High Will Yields Go? – October 14, 2022
Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  



 

Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.



 

Policy – Time For Central Banks To Tread Lightly – October 11, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines current monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges for each of these central banks.



 

Brazil – Defying Gravity – October 10, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazilian assets rallied after last week’s general election as the worst-case scenario for financial markets, in which former President Lula secures a first-round victory, was avoided. Therefore, the favorable relative growth backdrop which has been driving outperformance will remain intact.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.



 

China – Baby Steps To Evolving COVID-Zero – October 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

It may still only be a baby step, and by global standards it is a barely perceptible one.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.



 

Global Fixed Income – A Global Bond Market Riot Erupts – September 29, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The Bank of England has, temporarily, arrested a riot in the U.K. Gilt market that was threatening all major government bond markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – September 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Although a recession over the 6-12 months has not been our base-case scenario, the odds of this outcome are increasing and will continue to climb if the rise in interest rate expectations persists unabated.



 

Policy – U.S. Fed: Peak Hawkishness, Or More To Come? – September 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed issued another 75 bps rate hike yesterday and signaled further large increases for this year’s remaining policy meetings.



 

Theme – When Will The (Recession) Wolf Arrive? – September 21, 2022
 · Themes · 

The wolf eventually arrived in the fable of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”.



 

Fixed Income – High-Yield Corporate Debt Will Be Resilient – September 20, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. high-yield corporate debt has been a major casualty of the past four recessions, leading many to argue that the asset class is poised to suffer heavily again in the year ahead and warranting an underweight stance within a fixed-income portfolio.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Understanding The Fed’s Influence – September 13, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. Treasurys have faced dramatic selling pressure and heightened volatility since the Fed found itself wrongfooted in missing the historical rise in consumer price inflation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.



 

China – Pragmatic Policy In Hibernation – September 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 until 1992, famously said “no matter if it is a white cat or a black cat, so long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat”



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.



 

Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Stick With Selective High-Yielders – August 25, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Global inflation rates are mathematically certain to decline in the months ahead, thanks to base effects and lower energy costs.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy



 

Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
 · Themes · 

There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk-On For Now, But Only If Bonds Stay Calm – August 19, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A cooling in inflation after the spike in the past year will prolong the pause phase in government bond markets. This, in turn, will support equities and credit in the coming months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Payback Versus Catching Up – August 12, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

As expected, U.S. inflation has rolled over and will decelerate in the coming months, which will boost the prospects for extending the global economic expansion.



 

Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.



 

Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.



 

China – COVID-Zero Implies Continuing Economic Pain – August 4, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Prospects for a strong reopening recovery in China are evaporating in the face of the authorities’ obstinate attachment to a COVID-zero policy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Mixed Messages – July 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

“Pause #2” in the cyclical bond yield uptrend is well advanced, and further downside in yields from current levels should be limited.



 

Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
 · Themes · 

The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.



 

Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
 · Themes · 

The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.



 

Global Fixed Income – A Volatile Consolidation – July 8, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

There is a great deal of uncertainty facing fixed-income markets which is reflected in the very elevated level of bond volatility.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession



 

China – When Will Reopening Lift Earnings? – July 7, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

With signs of economic reopening, foreign investors have been piling back into Chinese stocks in recent weeks, having rushed for the exits in prior months during the peak of lockdowns.



 

Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Recession Or Resilience? – July 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Anxiety about the global growth outlook will persist in the near term, resulting in choppy capital market conditions and room for bond yields to retreat at least mildly further.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets



 

Canada – Rising Interest Rates Threaten The Canadian Goose – June 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our latest views on the Canadian economy, particularly its interest rate sensitivity.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.



 

Webcast – Chinese Lockdowns Creating Pent-up Demand – (8min:58sec) – June 15, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani examines the outlook for China’s economy and markets in the context of renewed lockdowns imposed on Beijing and Shanghai in recent days



 

Policy – U.S. CPI: Sticker Shock – June 13, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report discusses Friday’s U.S. CPI report which underscored persistently high inflationary pressures in the economy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
 · Themes · 

One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

China – The Stock Bounce Has Begun – June 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

A much-anticipated positive shift in sentiment towards Chinese stocks appears to have begun, supported by easier liquidity conditions



 

Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth



 

Policy – Historically High Inflation Means Much Tighter Monetary Policy – June 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s research highlight examines the outlook for monetary conditions in the developed world and provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of these central banks.



 

South Africa – Rand Bonds: Will SARB End The Party? – May 31, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

South Africa is one of the exceptions among the major EM bond issuers: its inflation has been much more modest than most emerging and developed market counterparts



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.



 

Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets



 

Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.



 

Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.



 

Webcast – China: How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – (7min:47sec) – May 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for China’s economy and markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Case For EM Debt Is In Relative, Not Absolute Terms – May 12, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The primary bogeyman for EM debt, both in its local currency (EMLCD) and hard currency (EM$D) variants, is a negative global growth shock.



 

Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.



 

Policy – U.S.: The Fed Steps It Up, Hoping For A Break Later – May 5, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

China – How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – May 5, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese stocks and its currency have been buffeted by the fallout from draconian lockdowns that have spread out from the major trade hubs of the country during the course of March and April.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue



 

Webcast – The Great Bond Market Capitulation – (7min:48sec) – April 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses this year’s dramatic selloff in government bonds and provides a roadmap of what to expect heading forward.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.



 

Theme – Government Bonds: This Is What Capitulation Looks Like (Phase 1) – April 21, 2022
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The violent selloff in U.S. and G7 government bonds reflects the beginning of a major capitulation by both central banks and bond bulls



 

Roundtable – Emerging Market Winners And Losers From The Russia/Ukraine War – (67min:04sec) – April 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing some of the geopolitical considerations arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.



 

Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Curve: What’s The Message, If Anything? – March 31, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has become a topic of high interest once again, now that it has become flat beyond 2 years, with segments of the curve mildly inverting.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Fed Plays Catch-Up – March 30, 2022
 · Fixed Income · 

The sell-off in the global fixed-income market has been severe over the past several months, particularly for U.S. Treasurys.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.



 

Webcast – Looking Beyond The 0-1 Geopolitical Bet – (10min:42sec) – March 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and investment strategy for the next 6-12 months in the context of the Ukraine war.



 

Latam – Will Latam Win The Russia/Ukraine War? – March 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Russia/Ukraine war is undoubtedly a near-term headwind for Latin America’s financial assets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.



 

EM – Debt’s Russia Problem: Third Time A Charm? – March 2, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The restriction on Russian access to SWIFT and blocking sanctions on the foreign assets of the Bank of Russia (BoR – the central bank) has tipped Russian debt into what looks to be an inevitable slide toward technical default.



 

Economy – Assessing Total Inflation Risks In The Developed World – March 1, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The MRB Total Inflation Measure offers a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures within an economy by including other sources of inflationary/disinflationary pressures beyond consumer price inflation.



 

Russia – Becomes Uninvestable – March 1, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The sanctions announced in Europe on Saturday, including partial restrictions on Russia’s access to SWIFT and the freezing of the central bank’s (BoR) foreign assets will ultimately lead to Russian recession.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Distorting To Reflective To Restrictive – February 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cyclically bearish on bonds, although yields could soon pause; conditions are becoming technically stretched and U.S. rate expectations have already ratcheted higher.



 

Webcast – COVID Fades: The Impact Of Reopening – (9min:03sec) – February 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses what the unwinding of the pandemic means for the global economy, policy, and investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Tug Of War – February 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth will remain solid, as service sector activity will improve as economic restrictions are relaxed. Above-trend growth and rising underlying inflation will force policymakers to unwind the liquidity boom.



 

Fixed Income – ECB Pivot Pressures Periphery Debt – February 11, 2022
Fixed Income · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – End Of COVID And Free Money – February 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The two themes that will be crucial in shaping the global macro environment this year are the fading of COVID as a meaningful restraint on global mobilit



 

Webcast – The Ebbing Liquidity Wave – (9min:33sec) – February 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months highlight.



 

China – Limping Into The Tiger – February 8, 2022
Emerging Markets · 

Appropriately enough, as the world celebrates the lunar new year, both bravery and unpredictability are the Tiger’s hallmarks in the Chinese zodiac.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.



 

Webcast – The ECB Will Follow The Fed’s Pivot – (9min:04sec) – February 1, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses the next big central bank surprise, namely a pivot from the ECB, which will have major ramifications across asset classes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.



 

Euro Area – The Coming “Hawkish” Turn At The ECB – January 26, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

We expect the ECB will follow the Fed’s pivot later in 2022, and also begin the path to normalize policy thereafter.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – A Choppy Transition – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Last year was largely characterized by risk-on, fueled by extremely accommodative global monetary and fiscal policies, and a massive liquidity wave.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Follow The Leader, But Also Watch The Laggards – January 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic growth will be more resilient and stronger than last decade, given the more accommodative policy backdrop and fewer structural drags (the end of deleveraging and fiscal austerity in the U.S. and euro area).



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Credit Performance During The Initial Stage Of Fed Rate Hiking Cycles – January 14, 2022
Fixed Income · 

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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – A Barbell Of Yield And Quality Will Outperform – January 13, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The traditional macro drivers of EM debt performance, namely credit quality, monetary policy, liquidity and overall growth conditions offer a mixed picture, with strong demand rebounds triggering rising inflation.



 

Webcast – As Go Bonds, So Will Go Risk Assets – (8min:35sec) – January 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended global multi-asset positioning.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.



 

China – Don’t Fight The PBoC – January 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Monetary policies will continue to diverge between China and other major economies, which will have a number of investment implications over the next 12 months.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part I) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

One of our core themes in 2021 has been that the global authorities have forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Global Fixed Income – The 2022 Fixed Income Outlook: Implications Of The Fed’s “Hawkish” Pivot – December 14, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

The key theme for global fixed-income markets in 2022 will be the capitulation to a less “transitory” and more resilient inflation and growth environment.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Prolonging The Cycle – December 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run COVID-19 related headwinds will act to prolong the economic cycle, but seem unlikely to derail the recovery, based on current information.



 

Policy – Emergency Monetary Policy Is No Longer Required – December 8, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the central banks in the developed world, as well as supporting charts.



 

China – The Coming Consumption/Policy-Led Recovery – December 7, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

After an eventful year of widespread policy interventions that dragged growth from above-trend to its current below-trend pace, a modest policy stimulus is set to recalibrate China’s growth prospects in the months ahead.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: The End Of An Era – November 26, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.



 

Fixed Income – The U.S. Treasury Curve: Temporary Divergence Or Another Conundrum? – November 19, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets



 

Policy – U.S. Inflation: The Fed Has Cornered Itself – November 4, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

This report updates our outlook for Fed policy following yesterday’s FOMC meeting



 

China – The Rattle Of Regulatory Change Continues – November 4, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

2021 has been the year of regulatory change in China, starting with a forced deleveraging in the real estate sector, followed by a crackdown on very large internet-related stocks aimed at limiting monopolistic behavior, improving labor rights and protecting data privacy.



 

Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt: Assessing Risks After The Binge – November 3, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Public finances across the developed world have deteriorated markedly over the past 10-15 years, as government debt mushroomed to provide an offset for the Great Recession and then to offset the COVID-19 fallout.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period



 

Fixed Income – Fed Tapering: Receding Support For U.S. Treasurys – October 29, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.



 

Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.



 

Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.



 

Global Fixed Income – Risks Are Stacked Against Bonds – October 12, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

G7 government bonds are still priced in line with the secular stagnation narrative from the 2010s and are out-of-sync with current macro trends.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.



 

China – Policy Bandwidth Is Being Overwhelmed – October 7, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese policymakers were probably hoping to take their victory lap during last week’s national holidays, after reducing excess leverage and nipping a housing bubble in the bud.



 

Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.



 

Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.



 

Euro Area – Inflation: Set To Pop Like The U.S. – September 14, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

Our latest research on the euro area reinforces our non-consensus view that global inflation is heading higher on a multi-year horizon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.



 

China – Redistribution, Not Stimulus, Is The Opportunity – September 9, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Investors are in danger of misconstruing two current developments in China.



 

Webcast – Transitioning From Maximum Growth And Policy Thrust – (9min:37sec) – September 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the shifting macro and policy backdrop and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It Will Get Tougher From Here – September 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Two important shifts in the macro climate over the next 6-12 months point to lower investment returns and more painful corrections, which will challenge current trends in capital markets.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Generous Spreads Belie Constructive Backdrop – September 2, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The case for holding emerging market local-currency denominated debt (EMLCD) is a simple one: the EMLCD spread (over Treasuries) has widened to levels consistent with economic stress



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative



 

Webinar – The Inflation Debate: Where The Consensus Has It Wrong – (78min:25sec) – August 18, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Strategist Phillip Colmar and U.S. Strategist Prajakta Bhide.



 

Theme – Disputing Misplaced Narratives (Part II) – August 17, 2021
 · Themes · 

Part I of this MRB Theme Report (published July 27) contrasted our view with some of the prevailing narratives related to the U.S. and global growth outlook.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade Ahead – August 13, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Sentiment remains upbeat in the major economies despite ongoing angst about the COVID-19 Delta variant.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.



 

Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
 · Themes · 

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China – Investor Fears Are Overdone – August 4, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Foreigners are not the dominant drivers of Chinese stocks, and their fears are overblown. There is a measurable “China discount” associated with the price of its financial assets relative to equivalents in the developed economies.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.



 

Emerging Markets – EM Local-Currency Debt: Yield Is King – July 29, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The high-yielding segment of EM local currency bonds offers investors attractive absolute return and outperformance potential, even in the context of a rise in U.S. Treasury yields



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Euro Area – Economy: Reasons For Some Optimism – July 22, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Investor expectations for the euro area have been depressed by a decade largely characterized by a disinflationary funk.



 

Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.



 

Theme – MRB Total Inflation Measure: U.S. Price Pressures Are Broad-Based – July 15, 2021
 · Themes · 

This report introduces the MRB Total Inflation Measure to provide a more wholistic perspective of the inflation pressures brewing within the U.S. economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.



 

China – Back To Normal – July 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

While investors in the U.S. suffer bouts of anxiety over the first mutterings of a possible thought that the Fed may consider setting a date for the start of policy normalization, Chinese policymakers have already barged through the gates along this path



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.



 

Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.



 

Global Fixed Income – Too Early To Bail On Yield Curve Steepeners – June 24, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Last week’s FOMC meeting triggered some volatility in the bond market and across risk assets.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return · 

The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Key Gaps Are Closing/Widening – June 11, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While uber-dovish monetary policies will remain supportive of risk asset markets, the widening gaps between nominal GDP growth and core inflation versus policy rates are unsustainable.



 

Webcast – The Drivers Of Inflation Provide A Warning – (9min:49sec) – June 9, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar Phillip Colmar examines the forces that will drive consumer price inflation over the course of this cycle.



 

China – The Recovery Phase Is Ending – June 8, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The post-pandemic phase of China’s economic rebound has been exceptionally strong, and current data suggests it is already in the early stages of ending.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.



 

Fixed Income – Real (Equilibrium) U.S. Interest Rates And Bond Valuation – June 4, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – An Inflation Problem Is Brewing – June 3, 2021
 · Themes · 

The Fed and other major central banks are determined to lag well behind any upturn in consumer price inflation, and fixed-income investors are reluctant to revise up their depressed longer-term views on economic growth and inflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.



 

Fixed Income – Are Treasury Yields Primed For Another Taper Tantrum-Like Spike? – May 27, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. Treasury yields have been fairly well contained since late-March as they consolidate their prior upleg.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt Will Shine While The U.S. Dollar Softens – May 20, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Two key external drivers of EM bond returns will offer a constructive backdrop in the year ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.



 

Fixed Income – A Rude Awakening For The U.S. Treasury Market – May 14, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.



 

Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – As Good As It Gets – May 7, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The aggressive monetary and fiscal support of the past year helped bring forward and fortify the robust rebound in capital markets relative to underlying economic growth conditions.



 

China – Reawakened Consumers Underpin Growth – May 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China is growing at a robust, above-trend growth, with concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic slipping into the distant past.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.



 

Fixed Income – A G7 Bond Yield Anchor Is Lifting – April 30, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.



 

Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.



 

Fixed Income – Will Low G7 Ex-U.S. Yields Cap U.S. Treasury Yields? – April 16, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.



 

China – Capital Markets With Chinese Characteristics – April 8, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s economic momentum remains strong and is broadening, and offers powerful support for a solid global expansion in output and trade.



 

Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Debt To Outperform, Even With Rising Global Bond Yields – April 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Three months ago we warned of short-term headwinds to EMLCD returns, while remaining confident of their ability to outperform within a global fixed income portfolio on a 6-12 month view.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.



 

Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.



 

Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.



 

Global Fixed Income – Challenging The “Lower For Longer” Bond Narrative – March 16, 2021
 · Fixed Income · 

Hyper-accommodative monetary and fiscal policies combined with a significant upgrade in economic expectations have caused a rapid rise in U.S. Treasury yields



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.



 

Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.



 

China – Yuan Bonds Outperform As Policy “Normalizes” – March 3, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Chinese economy doesn’t need stimulus, and, in fact, fiscal retrenchment will gather pace this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.



 

Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.



 

Asset Allocation – Which Inflation Hedges Are Appealing? – February 25, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

We have regularly noted that there is scope for medium term upside in the years ahead.



 

Emerging Markets – BRL Bonds: No More Bad News Left To Discount – February 23, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazilian assets have been severely punished in recent weeks as a series of negative developments, including last week’s government intervention in Petrobras



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing An Anchor – February 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in Treasury yields has spread abroad and has increased the odds of a correction in overbought risk asset markets.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Yield Curve Steepening To Spread To Gilt And Bund Markets – February 12, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.



 

China – Chinese Divergences – February 2, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese economic momentum is far above its trend growth rate, while its stock market booms, government bond yields and the currency edge higher and a central bank advisor dropped hints of policy normalization.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Free Money Forever – January 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity market risks have recently eased on the fundamental side, as Treasury yields have calmed, but worsened on the technical side, as speculative froth has erupted. A pause in augmenting favored positions is still warranted.



 

Policy – Another Year Of Hyper-Accommodative Monetary Policy – January 27, 2021
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report provides an update of the MRB Monetary Policy Pressure Gauges (MPPGs) for each of the major developed market central banks, as well as supporting charts.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.



 

Fixed Income – Deleveraging Postponed In Canada Mildly Bond Bearish – January 22, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent stall in U.S. employment trends underscores the need for rapid vaccinations to clear the path to a self-reinforcing global economic expansion.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: Starting The Year With A Pop – January 15, 2021
Fixed Income · 

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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EMLCD Will Outperform, Despite Near-Run Risks – January 14, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

This report focuses primarily on the two issues: the outlook for the EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) asset class, and how investors should approach investment in Chinese government bonds.



 

Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.



 

China – Climbing The Wall Of Worry – January 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China continues to experience strong economic momentum, despite a stutter in December’s PMI surveys (which nevertheless remain firmly in expansionary territory).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.



 

Fixed Income – Euro Area: Scope For Higher Inflation Despite Euro Strength – December 18, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).



 

Global Fixed Income – 2021 Outlook: Bond Supports Slowly Fade – December 10, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

We enter 2021 with a constructive pro-growth fixed-income positioning, albeit with measured return expectations.



 

Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.



 

China – What Could Interrupt China’s Rebound in 2021? – December 3, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese economic momentum is by far the strongest in the world, which supports strong global appetite for Chinese financial assets.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: The Bear Steepening Will Continue – November 20, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.



 

Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Despite Fiscal Risks, Yield And Cheap FX Will Drive Outperformance – October 20, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

With the IMF, World Bank and others urging developed market (DM) governments to accelerate the pace of their fiscal response to the COVID-19 growth slowdown, some EM governments will likely follow suit.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.



 

Economy – Second COVID-19 Wave Heightens Euro Area Economic Uncertainty – October 16, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.



 

China – Robust Recovery Offers Scant Global Comfort – October 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

The pace of China’s torrid post-Q1 economic rebound will ease off, but solid growth will be sustained thanks primarily to the robust service sector.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Reflationary Bridge And The Bond Market – September 25, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. and G7 government bond yields have traded in an extremely tight range of late as bond volatility has been crushed by global central banks through highly accommodative policies and strong forward guidance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.



 

Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.



 

Fixed Income – Government Bonds Crosscurrents: Higher Inflation Vs Anchored Policy Rates – August 28, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Select High-Yield Plays Will Shine – August 25, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Local currency-denominated EM debt (EMLCD) offers attractive yields in a world where investors are challenged by generally richly-valued stocks and bonds, and low expected returns in the developed markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.



 

Fixed Income / Foreign Exchange – U.K. Risks Warrant Cautious Positioning – August 21, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

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Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle: Did Policymakers Avoid A Final Flush? – August 20, 2020
 · Themes · 

MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks as it provides a starting point when building a multi-year roadmap, and helps investors look for major inflection points.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.



 

Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.



 

Fixed Income/Foreign Exchange – Second COVID-19 Wave Hits Australia – July 31, 2020
Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Ignore The Message From Real Yields – July 24, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.



 

Webcast – The Legacy Of COVID-19: Inflationary Or Deflationary? – (10min:13sec) – July 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar analyzes the underlying trend in global consumer price pressures and provides a long-term roadmap for inflation.



 

Theme – Are We Headed For Deflation Or Inflation? – July 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

The outlook for inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months. The unique sudden-stop global recession has crushed final demand but has also imposed significant capacity restraints for many services and goods providers.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.



 

Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.



 

Fixed Income – Next Fed Policy Support: Yield Curve Control – June 26, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – It All Comes Down To Employment And Job Security – June 19, 2020
 · Uncategorized · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A correction or churning phase for equities is probable in the near term, given the sharp rebound in prices this spring and likelihood that corporate profits will not be able to return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Bonds Are Still Appealing – June 19, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Currency And Policy Tailwinds – June 18, 2020
Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Uncategorized · 

Global recessions are not generally auspicious for returns to credit-related products, but the “sudden stop” phase of the recession has already ended.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.



 

Fixed Income – A Breakthrough For The Euro Bond – June 12, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

LatAm – Sifting Through The COVID-19 Rubble – June 10, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

Local currency-denominated bonds are the best LatAm play, and should be held at overweight within an EM local-currency bond portfolio.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.



 

Webcast – Canada: Will The Bubble Finally Burst? – (13min:26sec) – June 2, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest outlook on the Canadian economy and asset markets, with a focus on the potential for a bursting of the housing and credit bubbles.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Broadening Equity Rally, For Now – May 29, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The equity rally has spread beyond U.S. large-caps into lagging bourses and sectors.



 

Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.



 

Canada – On Thin Ice As It Heats Up – May 27, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our outlook on the Canadian economy and related investment strategy in response to the pandemic and related halt in activity.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.



 

Fixed Income – Are Negative Interest Rates Set To Become More Widespread? – May 22, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.



 

Fixed Income – Will Massive Stimulus Lead To An Inflationary Environment? – May 15, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
 · Themes · 

This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.



 

Saudi Arabia – 2020: A Replay Of Korea 1997? – April 29, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

In the EM world, the aggregate debt position of oil exporters was already far inferior to that of the broader universe before this year’s coronavirus-related collapse in oil demand.



 

Theme – The Great Halt Of 2020 – April 23, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report compares the current economic fallout with the previous and concludes that another Great Recession is very unlikely.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Fed Has A Backstop For Everything – April 21, 2020
 · Fixed Income · 

In response to the sharp COVID-19 economic fallout, the Fed has adopted an unprecedented set of stimulus measures with clear positive implications for fixed-income assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.



 

Fixed Income – Euro Area Bonds: The ECB To The Rescue – April 9, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.



 

EM Fixed Income – Yet Another EM Debt Problem? – March 24, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

While coronavirus concerns have become the primary proximate driver for many asset prices, when it comes to EM debt, it is low oil prices that have most rattled global investors.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.



 

Emerging Markets – EM And COVID-19: First In, First Out? – March 20, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

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Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Bonds: Assessing The Fallout – March 20, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.



 

Fixed Income – G7 Government Bonds: Very Expensive Portfolio Insurance – March 13, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.



 

Webcast – COVID-19 And Investment Strategy (10min:09sec) – March 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest take on COVID-19 and how it will impact investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Will COVID-19 End The Cycle? – February 27, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The COVID-19 threat arrived at a point when equity markets had an air pocket after materially rerating over the past year and were overly optimistic about the global growth outlook.



 

LatAm – Bonds And Rates Will Outperform – February 27, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

LatAm’s investment landscape beyond the short term will be characterized by a modest recovery in global trade and supportive global liquidity, all of which are positive for financial assets in the region.



 

Euro Area – Gauging Euro Area Recession Risks – February 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report introduces the MRB Euro Area Recession Checklist Indicator (RCI), which is an economy-wide measure (incorporating 26 variables grouped into six broad categories) that is constructed based on the framework of the MRB U.S. Recession Checklist Indicator.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.



 

Fixed Income – Gilts: Post-Election Support Against A Mixed Outlook – February 14, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: The Goldilocks Backdrop Will Not Last – February 7, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Policy – Little Pressure On Monetary Policy This Year – February 6, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

The challenge heading forward for policymakers will be for those markets facing housing and credit excesses that ultimately will limit, if not prevent, any monetary tightening.



 

Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.



 

Fixed Income – BoC & The Bond Market: Caught Between Crosscurrents – January 24, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – EM Currency And Debt Upgrades (8min:04sec) – January 22, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani reviews two upgrades which we have recently announced for emerging market positioning within a multi asset portfolio.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Bonds: The Best Of The Credit Universe – January 21, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The outlook for EM local currency debt (EMLCD) can be summarized as “picking up pennies in front of a steamroller”, but there are no steamrollers to be seen on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.



 

Fixed Income – Will Reduced Supply Drive Euro Area Bond Yields Lower? – January 17, 2020
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – No Bust, No Boom – January 10, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).



 

Webcast – Geopolitically-Driven Digestion Phase (8min:20sec) – January 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for capital markets in 2020, including the implications of the latest geopolitical crisis on investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Great Year And A Great Decade: Can It Continue? – December 20, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to recommend a mildly pro-growth investment stance across most asset classes.



 

Global Fixed Income – 2020 Outlook – December 17, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

Today’s report outlines our recommended fixed-income positioning for 2020.



 

Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Slow And Modest Upturn Lies Ahead – December 6, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

While global growth should gradually firm next year, it will be insufficient to warrant a decisive risk-on investment posture.



 

Fixed Income – The U.S. Credit Cycle: Late Stages, But Not Over – December 6, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part II): Yield Plays – December 3, 2019
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Consolidation Before More Upside? – November 29, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The resilience of the consumer sector bodes well for the U.S. economic outlook.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Debt: Cracks Appear But Tight Spreads Should Persist – November 29, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Debt Outperformance Can Continue Awhile – November 26, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

The case for overweighting EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) in a global fixed income portfolio is straightforward.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Validation – November 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There are tentative signs of a trough in manufacturing activity, but follow-through will be critical to sustain the recent breakout in equities and the global stock/bond ratio.



 

Fixed Income – G7 Government Bond Yields: Countertrend Bounce Or Further Upside? – November 22, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – FOMO Versus A Challenging Earnings Outlook – November 15, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity should gradually improve in the coming year, but much strongergrowth is highly unlikely.



 

Fixed Income – The U.S. Yield Curve: A False Alarm – November 15, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Worries Recede Further – November 8, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stability in manufacturing PMI surveys and the recent easing in trade tensions have spurred higher equity prices and bond yields.



 

Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.



 

Euro Area – Economy: Weak But Resilient – November 5, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our euro area economic outlook and focuses on two key topics that are crucial to the euro area, namely the global auto industry and the German labor market.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – No Recession, But Not Much Growth Ahead – November 1, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

We expect the economic expansion to continue, but there is little basis for concluding a robust rebound in activity and profits looms over the next year that would justify a decidedly pro-growth investment posture.



 

South Africa – Rand Bonds Will Shine, Despite Downgrade Worries – October 31, 2019
Emerging Markets · 

There’s been no shortage of negative headlines about Eskom’s bailout, its impact on South Africa’s public debt sustainability, and the potential downgrade to sub-investment-grade status.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Turn In Manufacturing – October 25, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Non-U.S. equities have perked up, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity will keep a lid on equity prices and bond yields.



 

Fixed Income – U.K. Gilts: Inflation Expectations Should Converge Lower With The U.S. – October 25, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Fixed Income – The Fed Will Deliver A Reluctant Rate Cut Next Week – October 25, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.



 

Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Relief, But Risks Remain – October 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global trade and manufacturing indicators are still generally weak, and the protectionist backdrop will continue to hold back the global economy.



 

Fixed Income – France and Germany: Leading An Upleg In Government Bond Yields? – October 18, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Bending, But Not Yet Breaking – October 11, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Trade policies and heightened domestic economic tensions continue to erode global economic sentiment, although not yet by enough to undermine the expansion.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Yields Reflect Multiple Distortions – October 11, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Fixed Income – U.S. High-Yield Corporate Debt: Some Cracks Appearing, But Should Ultimately Calm – October 11, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.



 

Canada – On Borrowed Time – October 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The increasing imbalances and building vulnerabilities of the Canadian economy have been a regular theme in our research since the commodity Supercycle crested in 2013.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.



 

Global Fixed Income – G7 Bonds: Priced For A Bleak Outlook – September 24, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

Our view has been that the race to negative bond yields pushed pricing too far this summer.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Growth Plus DM Liquidity: Goldilocks For Bonds – September 24, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Growth momentum in the emerging markets is lacklustre, but recession risks are low.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Absorbing Another Body Blow – September 20, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Better-than-expected U.S. growth and an upward creep in core inflation herald a pause in Fed easing.



 

Webcast – Oil Moves Back To Center Stage (11min:48sec) – September 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Makhjavani and Peter Perkins discuss key drivers of global capital markets including the recent disruption to Saudi production, as well as the recent sharp rise in bond yields.



 

Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Business Cycle Remains Resilient – September 13, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global hiring plans have stayed solid despite the downturn in manufacturing and trade, and service sector PMI surveys remain positive.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook



 

Webcast – U.S. & Euro Area Bonds: Is Japan The Right Roadmap? (7min:23sec) – September 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Frank Petrocca discuss the collapse in government bond yields.



 

Theme – The Japanification Of The U.S. And Euro Area: An Economic Reality Check – September 3, 2019
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

A decade after the Great Financial Crisis erupted policy rates remain near historic lows and a record percentage of global bond markets have negative yields.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Third Time Lucky, Or The End Of The Cycle? – August 30, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investors should refrain from aggressive positioning on the basis of expected trade talk outcomes given the difficulty of forecasting President Trump/China’s next moves.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.



 

Webcast – Bonds: The Non-Yielding Faith In Governments (8min:24sec) – August 21, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the collapse in government bond yields and provided perspective on how extreme current bond market pricing has become.



 

Global Fixed Income – The Race To Negative Bond Yields – August 13, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

Global bond yields have melted this year in response to an extreme dovish shift by the major central banks and a ratcheting up of trade tensions.



 

Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).



 

U.S. – Fed Policy: One For The Global Economy – August 1, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

As widely anticipated, the Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 bps at yesterday’s meeting, aiming to insure the U.S. economy against negative global developments.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still Lacking A Catalyst – July 26, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global manufacturing weakness is persisting, which is dampening economic sentiment and investor risk-taking.



 

Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.



 

Latam – Is Brazil Really A Better Credit Than Mexico? – July 23, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

The steady change in perceptions of economic/political risks in Brazil versus Mexico has seen Brazilian financial assets massively outperform their Mexican counterparts…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It May Be Unnecessary, But… – July 19, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors remain wary of taking risk outside of U.S. large-cap stocks, implying that there is still considerable sidelined cash to buy equities – but only if economic confidence improves.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Growing Inflation Risks – July 19, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s A Grind – July 12, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed is committed to a rate cut later this month, and will stay dovish even after economic news improves.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: Overextended Conditions Warn Of An Imminent Bounce – July 12, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.



 

Webcast – Snack On EM Debt While Watching The U.S./China Slugfest (6min:49sec) – July 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani discussing the implications of the G20 summit for various EM assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Fixed-Income Performance During Past Mid/Late Cycle Fed Rate Cuts – June 28, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Fed, ECB Will Flatter EM Bond Returns – June 27, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Central banks sometimes offer precautionary easing in the face of threats that do not subsequently play out as feared – an example being the Fed’s response to the LTCM episode, which sustained a well-advanced investment cycle.



 

Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Binary Outcomes – June 21, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed has now shifted full-circle to the dovish side. However, the forward markets are too aggressive in terms of expected rate cuts this year, unless economic activity deteriorates meaningfully, which we do not expect.



 

Fixed Income – Coordinated G3 Policy Easing? – June 21, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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China – Will China Reflate, And What Would It Mean If It Did? – June 19, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Once a month, we review current Chinese macroeconomic indicators for signs of shifting momentum, potential policy adjustments and the outlook for China-related assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Crosscurrents Continue – June 14, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equity and credit markets remain caught between mounting trade tensions, and supportive monetary conditions and positive underlying corporate profitability.



 

Fixed Income – Euro Area Bonds: ECB Provides Some Near-Term Support – June 14, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.



 

Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
 · Themes · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
 · Themes · 

This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.



 

Fixed Income – Scenario Analysis For A Unique Treasury Yield Curve – May 24, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · 

The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Protecting Some Profits – May 17, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are protecting profits and downgrading equities to neutral within a multi-asset portfolio, following the powerful run-up in prices this year and recent escalation in trade tensions. 



 

Fixed Income – Developed Commodity Markets: Stay Long – May 17, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: A Limited Relief Valve -May 10, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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South Africa – Underwhelming Politics, But A Disaster Was Avoided – May 9, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

This week’s elections failed to deliver a convincing enough mandate for President Ramaphosa to carry out root-and-branch structural reforms, and while it is difficult to identify a long term winner, the clear loser is private sector investment and job creation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.



 

Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.



 

Webcast – Blowing Bubbles (9min:15sec) – May 1, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Central banks have used subdued consumer price inflation to justify keeping policy ultra-accommodative.



 

Theme – A Bubbly World: A Critique Of The Fed’s Pivot – April 30, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Central banks have used subdued consumer price inflation to justify keeping policy ultra-accommodative.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The Pain Trades Rolls On – April 26, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Central banks, including the Fed, will stay dovish until after better economic data arrives, which bodes well for equities and credit.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Inflation Protection: Still Room For Outperformance – April 26, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – It’s All About The Carry Now – April 25, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Yields on EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) have declined dramatically in recent months, in line with the trend in U.S. Treasurys.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Don’t Short U.S. Corporate Profits – April 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The improvement in the Chinese economy is gaining momentum, and will provide a lift to global activity and support risk asset prices.



 

Fixed Income – Favor Canada, But Stay Short Duration – April 18, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – Monetary Reflation In A Deleveraging World (12min:30sec) – April 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The mechanics and impact of monetary policy have been heavily debated from the onset of the Great Recession and has heated up again since the Fed whipsawed investors with a massive pivot.



 

Webcast – Signs Of An Economic Inflection Point (9min:18sec) – April 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Global Fixed Income – Did Treasury Investors Cry Wolf Again? – April 9, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

There has been a tendency by investors and central banks to overreact to softer economic data in recent years and prematurely forecast an imminent U.S. (and global) recession, much like the boy who cried wolf.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Fork In The Road – March 29, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The sharp bounce in risk asset prices this quarter is due for a pause. A resumption in the uptrend needs evidence that global economic activity is firming.



 

Fixed Income – Australia: Economic Clouds Are Gathering, Favor Aussie Bonds – March 29, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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U.S. – Yield Curve: Is Anything Really Different This Time? – March 28, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

U.S. Treasury curve inversions are rare and have a solid historical record of preceding U.S. business cycle peaks.



 

Webcast – Client Requests Of The Month (9min:19sec) – March 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflation Top Up – March 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed added additional economic insurance this week, which will cap bond yields, but provide further fuel for risk asset prices.



 

Fixed Income – G7 Bonds: Central Banks Give Steering Wheel To Inflation – March 22, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Tortoise Cycle – March 15, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The window of opportunity for further gains in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist for the next 6 to 12 months.



 

Fixed Income – ECB Policy Easing: A Modest Positive For The Euro Area Economy – March 15, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.



 

Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.



 

Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.



 

Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.



 

Fixed Income – BoC: The Pressure Is Off – March 1, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Flickers Of Life – February 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A calm bond market, sidelined central banks and good odds that corporate earnings will grind higher this year, all bode well for equities and credit.



 

Fixed Income – German Bunds: Pricing In Too Bleak Of An Outlook – February 22, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Testing Times – February 15, 2019
 · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some key equity indexes are breaking above resistance levels and high-yield corporate bond spreads are narrowing, which bode well for risk assets.



 

Policy – What If Foreigners Retreat From U.S. Treasurys? – February 14, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The U.S. budget deficit is ballooning, while net foreign demand for Treasury securities is drying up.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – EM Local Fixed Income Will Outperform – February 14, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

EM local-currency bond yields are highly correlated with U.S. Treasury yields, and as the latter have eased back from early October highs, so have EM yields.



 

Policy – Synchronized Moderation Temporarily Halts The Great Monetary Unwind – February 12, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

The U.S.-led gradual global monetary unwind has temporarily paused, with the Fed recently moving to the sidelines.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Pain Trade Persist? – February 8, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth has softened, but key demand engines are in good shape.



 

Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.



 

Global Fixed Income – Navigating The Cyclical And Secular Crosscurrents – February 6, 2019
 · Fixed Income · 

This report analyzes the forces driving the recent drop in U.S. and G7 government bond yields and whether cyclical forces have shifted sustainably in support of bonds.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.



 

Emerging Markets – Latam Play: Brazilian Stocks And Mexican Bonds Will Win – January 31, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazil and Mexico typically compete for Latam portfolio flows. Today’s report concludes that investors are likely to rotate into Mexican peso bonds as the relative risk/reward profile has tilted against Brazilian local bonds.



 

Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It’s Late, But Not Yet Over – January 25, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent equity market low (high in corporate bond spreads) should hold, but a re-test is still possible.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Yield Curve: Distorted By Investor Uncertainty – January 25, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part II) – January 24, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the second of a two-part MRB Theme Report that outlines several non-consensus views about the next global recession and environment



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.



 

Fixed Income – U.K. Gilts: Priced For Stagflation – January 18, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Calmer Heads Prevail? – January 11, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk asset markets overreacted to a modest deterioration in the fundamentals in late-2018.



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Is The Rally Over? – January 11, 2019
Fixed Income · 

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Charts – China: Growth Trends Diverge Sharply – January 10, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

A bearish narrative pervades investor interpretation of Chinese economic data



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.



 

Webcast – Excessive Pessimism Priced In (10min:32sec) – January 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest asset allocation strategy, arguing that markets are discounting an overly bearish economic outlook in 2019.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Precarious Footing – January 4, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets are discounting a pronounced further slowdown in global economic growth in 2019, with a significant probability of recession.



 

Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It Is Either/Or – December 21, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The FOMC (and chair Powell) stumbled in its communication strategy this week.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Outperformance Will Continue – December 20, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

EM local currency-denominated debt (EMLCD) has demonstrated extraordinary resilience recently by outperforming U.S. Treasurys in a year buffeted by trade war angst, a purported EM “currency crisis”



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Bond Bear Merely Taking A Breather – December 14, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.



 

Webcast – Stylized Investment Cycle: Navigating The Endgame (11min:42sec) – December 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Global equity markets are in turmoil, as investors are rapidly downgrading the growth expectations and starting to panic about the potential for a global recession.



 

Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle: Extended Topping Out Process – December 4, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since we introduced it to clients earlier this decade.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-Off Pressures Ease – November 30, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Worries that the Fed will prematurely turn restrictive have diminished, helping to calm the Treasury market.



 

Charts – U.S. Corporate Debt: The Economy Trumps Leverage – November 27, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

Anxiety about the outlook for U.S. corporate debt has escalated recently, as evidenced by the sharp rise in corporate bond spreads.



 

Charts – China: Stocks Stir, Will The Economy Follow? – November 26, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

Something is stirring in China’s mainland bourses: for the past month the local CSI300 index has been under less pressure than the MSCI China index.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.



 

Brazil – Overdone, Or Just Getting Started? – November 20, 2018
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Brazilian stocks, bonds and the Real have all been on a tear since their trough in September, benefitting our overweight positions in EM equity, bond and currency portfolios.



 

WMS – Fixed-Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: Extended Consolidation – November 16, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.



 

Webcast – DM Sovereign Debt Risks: Assessing Structural Vulnerabilities (9min:35sec) – November 14, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 14 after… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt Risks: Are There Any Safe-Havens? – November 13, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

Mismanagement of public finances leaves several developed markets susceptible to sovereign debt strains when the next global recession eventually arrives.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back To Gridlock – November 9, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. politics will remain “noisy”, but should have an overall benign impact on the economy and financial markets.



 

U.K. – Gilts: A No-Win Secular Bet – November 8, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

The medium- and long-term outlook for longer-dated U.K. Gilts is extremely poor.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Excessive Growth Anxiety – November 2, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Last month’s market reaction was largely overdone. That U.S. economic and earnings growth are in the process of peaking which goes without saying given that this year’s fiscal stimulus will fade in 2019.



 

Global Fixed Income – Normalization Vs Destabilization – November 1, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

Our view remains that government bond yields will move up in waves, with each successive wave higher exposing more unbalanced segments of the global economy that have become reliant on a permanently cheap cost of capital.



 

Webcast – The End Of Cheap Money: Comparing Central Bank Pressures (8min:57sec) – October 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). October 31 after… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Sentiment Versus Fundamentals – October 26, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Shrinking The Fed’s Balance Sheet: Still Much Ado About Nothing – October 26, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – The Great Monetary Unwind: Who Will Join? – October 25, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

There has been a massive shift in global imbalances over the past decade as U.S. and euro area households (the previous weak links) restored their balance sheets



 

U.S. – Moving With The Fed’s Anchor – October 25, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has been responsive to the increases in the FOMC’s median estimate of the neutral policy rate this year.



 

Webcast – Bond Yields, Choke Points & Relief Valves (12min:26sec) – October 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Financial markets have been shaken as investors have rapidly adjusted their expectations to reflect a higher bond yield environment.



 

South Africa – Circles Or Spirals? – October 23, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

It has been a turbulent year for South African financial assets, starting with a euphoric rally after President Ramaphosa’s victory in December 2017, and then giving back earlier gains as investors’ patience broke in the summer.



 

Theme – The Casualties Of Interest Rate Normalization – October 22, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

There has been a massive shift in global imbalances over the past decade. The U.S. and euro area household sectors have delevered, making them less sensitive to rising interest rates and bond yields.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflective, Not Restrictive – October 19, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The equity market is at risk in the near run as investors grapple with the threat of rising interest rates and concerns about the economic outlook.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – 30-Year Versus 10-Year Treasury: Greater Risk, Same (Inadequate) Reward – October 19, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Charts – U.S. Interest Rates Aren’t Biting Yet – October 18, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The recent jump in U.S. bond yields has raised concerns that interest rates could threaten the U.S. growth outlook and leveraged borrowers in particular.



 

Emerging Markets – Brazil and Mexico: A Phoenix, Not A Dragon – October 16, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

Factors that caused investors to lose faith with Brazil and Mexico earlier this year are now reversing and both markets are well set to deliver positive absolute and relative performance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Bond Yields Reach A Choke Point – October 12, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Another Wave Higher In U.S. Treasury Yields – October 12, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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WMS – Equities – Japan Equities: Still Not Getting Much Respect – October 12, 2018
Equities · 

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Emerging Markets Fixed Income – Limited Growth Risks And Attractive Valuations – October 11, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

After a period of EM local-currency bond underperformance in recent months, investors are increasingly distinguishing between those selected EM assets.



 

Webcast – A Fresh Test For Investors (8min:45sec) – October 10, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Bond Bear Bites Again – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

The abrupt breakout in U.S. Treasury yields over the past week caught many investors by surprise and sent shockwaves through financial asset markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bond Bear Growls – October 5, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The breakout in U.S Treasury yields represents a fresh challenge to a global economy that has been resilient this year, thanks to ongoing policy support and still-positive cyclical dynamics.



 

Theme – A Secular Upshift In Inflation (Part II) – October 2, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the concluding part of a two-part MRB Theme Report analyzing the underlying shift in the trend of global consumer price inflation.



 

Theme – A Secular Upshift In Inflation (Part I) – September 26, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

There has been a profound yet extremely underappreciated upshift in the underlying pulse of global inflation over the past decade.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Is The Worst Over? – September 21, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

On/off trade worries are again receding, spurring a risk-on phase. The global stock/bond ratio has room to rise, as positive economic fundamentals will persist.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – U.S. Yield Curve: The Case For A Bear Steepening – September 21, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Opposing Forces – September 14, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Once again, there are glimmers of hope on the trade front. A meaningful easing in tensions would signal that the risk-on backdrop in the U.S. will spread abroad.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Will Market Turmoil Delay The ECB – September 14, 2018
Equities · 

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Charts – The Credit Cycle: Late But Too Soon To Abandon Spread For Quality – September 11, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

After nearly a decade of depressed G7 government bond yields and a global search for yield, there are very few remaining appealing opportunities within fixed-income markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Liquidity Fears Are Overdone – September 7, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Fears of a squeeze on global liquidity are increasing, as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and continues its grad



 

Known Unknowns: The Keys To Investment Strategy – August 30, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · 

In an era of mega data, algorithm-based investing, and information overload, many of the ultimate keys to economic and capital markets performance depend on judgments about abstract, unknowable variables.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Surmounting The Hurdles (Yet Again) – August 24, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth has stabilized at historically solid levels, underscoring that conditions remain supportive of equity markets and bearish for bonds.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Differentiating Among The Developed Commodity Markets – August 24, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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A Primer On IMF Rescue Plans: A Turkish Example – August 20, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Turkey is staring at a currency, banking and economic crisis as its access to foreign finance dries up.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-On Or Risk-Off? – August 17, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Turkish meltdown should not have an escalating domino effect on the EM world, nor on overall global economic activity.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Bonds: Better Than Treasurys, But… – August 17, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Looking To Upgrade Equities – August 10, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Underlying economic and corporate earnings prospects are still positive, but an easing in trade tensions is needed to lift non-U.S. equity market sentiment.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – U.K. Gilts: Remain Overweight – August 10, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Markets In Limbo – August 3, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets remain in limbo, with key equity, bond and currency benchmarks still largely range-bound.



 

Global Fixed Income – Lifting The Yield Anchors – August 2, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

G7 government bonds continue to digest their selloff in the first half of the year, but another wave higher in yields will begin later this year



 

U.S. – U.S. Fed Policy: Gearing Up To Complicated Times – July 27, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

FOMC members are confronting an economic and political environment considerably more complex than during the first half of the year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back From The Brink? – July 27, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There was a glimmer of hope this week that the U.S. will not push the world into a spiral of protectionism.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Will The BoJ Join The Monetary Unwind? – July 27, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – MRB Q&A: Top Questions From Clients (9min:35sec) – July 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Peter Perkins answers some of the key client questions we have recently received, ranging from the impact of trade protectionism on investment strategy to the outlook for gold.



 

Latam – Latin America: Short Term Pain Will Give Way To Long Term Gain – July 19, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

Latam financial assets have been buffeted by the combination of rising global protectionist threats and self-inflicted wounds in Argentina, Brazil and until recently, Mexico.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – No Blinking So Far – July 13, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The trade war has not de-escalated. Thus, equity prices will remain at risk in the near run, and bond prices will stay supported.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – A Dovish Hike From The Bank Of Canada – July 13, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – The Churn Continues – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report revisits three topics that continue to be heavily debated and which we believe investors are focused inappropriately.



 

Fixed Income – Yield Curve: Misread & Risks Skewed To Steepening – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return · Fixed Income · Themes · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Economic Resilience Last? – June 29, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There have been conflicting messages from global financial markets, underscoring the uncertain investment landscape.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – German Bond Yields Beware: Positive Economic Surprises – June 29, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.



 

Saudi Arabia – Three Questions, One Answer – June 21, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

With Saudi bond issuance burgeoning, and its equity market soon to be included in EM benchmarks, the country is on the cusp of becoming a mainstream destination for foreign portfolio investors.



 

Webcast – Identifying The EM Babies Thrown Out With The Bathwater (8min:14sec) – June 20, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Wednesday Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani examines the recent selloff in EM currencies and bonds and looks for potential mispricing associated with the negative market narrative.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Hawks And Doves – June 15, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The U.S. economy is reaccelerating and we expect the Fed will lift its forecast for the longer-run equilibrium rate by yearend, given the ongoing upcycle in core inflation and wage growth.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – The ECB Is Being Extra Cautious – June 15, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Positive Growth Beats Negative Liquidity – June 14, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

There is no imminent threat of an EM debt crisis.



 

Webcast – Euro Area: Cyclical Vs Structural Outlook (13min:54sec) – June 13, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 13 after… Continue



 

Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part II): Structurally Flawed – June 11, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the second report of a two-part series which provides a broader perspective of the cyclical and structural crosscurrents facing the euro area.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Wobbly Leg? – June 8, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Recent weakness in some euro area economic indicators should soon give way to stability.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Aussie Bonds Will Continue To Outperform – June 8, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part I): Cyclically Resilient – June 7, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Several headwinds have hit the euro area in recent months, making investors question if the steady improvements recorded last year have given way to something more ominous.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Into The Endgame – May 30, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

Global equities have swung wildly this year. Our base-case view is that recent selling pressure will prove to be a setback, rather than the start of a bear market.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Lot Of Churning – May 25, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty remain elevated, which will continue to hold back the global stock/bond ratio in the near run.



 

Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes · 

Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Differentiating Between Euro Area Debt Markets – May 25, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.



 

Global Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Bear Continues To Roar – May 18, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield punched decisively above the psychological 3% level this week.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Floors And Ceilings – May 18, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The breakout in U.S. bond yields and rebound in the dollar underscore that the U.S. policy/economic cycle still has momentum.



 

U.S. – Don’t Fear the Flattener Redux – May 11, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

The recent U.S. Treasury yield curve flattening has once again raised the specter of an upcoming yield curve inversion; the latter is historically well-established as a leading signal for U.S. recessions, equity bear markets and bouts of significant widening in credit spreads.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More Churning, But The Cycle Remains Intact – May 11, 2018
 · Commodities · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. inflationary pressures continue to slowly build, and emergency-level interest rates outside of the U.S. are no longer warranted.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Favor Bond Markets In “Canary” Economies – May 11, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Cash Is King – May 4, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The crosscurrents of a moderation in global growth momentum, combined with ongoing Fed rate hikes, rising U.S. inflation, and looming U.S. protectionist measures, portends continued churning in global capital markets in the near term.



 

Webcast – The Next Global Recession: The Canaries Are Coughing (8min:54sec) – May 3, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The U.S.-led government bond bear market has taken many investors by surprise this year, causing a shakeout in equities and increased market volatility.



 

Russia – The Ruble And Ruble Bonds: Safe Bet Or Russian Roulette? – May 3, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

Russian financial assets were hit last month by the expansion of U.S.-imposed sanctions, and while this hurt our overweight positions on Russia within EM currency and fixed-income portfolios



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Can Stocks Weather Higher Bond Yields? – April 27, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some positive economic surprises this week suggest that global growth is likely to prove resilient.



 

U.S. Policy – A “Potential” Argument For Higher U.S. Policy Rates – April 26, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed’s first policy rate hike came quite late in this expansion, with the U.S. output gap considerably less negative than at liftoff in prior hiking cycles.



 

South Africa – Ramaphoria, The Rand, And Related Assets – April 24, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

South Africa woke up from the long nightmare of the profoundly corrupt presidency of Jacob Zuma, marked by “state capture”, feeble growth and spiralling public debt, and staged a euphoric rally to welcome President Ramaphosa.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Confidence Hold? – April 20, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth is cooling after last year’s mini-boom, but a sizable slowdown is unlikely, provided trade tensions do not escalate.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Yields: Digestion Before Another Upleg – April 20, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – The ECB Is On Track To Lift Rates In 2019 – April 13, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Many Moving (i.e. Conflicting) Parts – April 6, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

A moderation in growth momentum, combined with additional Fed rate hikes and, more recently, the escalating trade battle between the U.S. and China, implies continuing market volatility and warrants near-term caution toward risk assets.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More To Go – March 29, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Heightened geopolitical tensions and stock-specific woes in the tech sector will keep equity markets weak in the near run.



 

Webcast – U.S.-China Trade Tensions: War Or Peace? (7min:28sec) – March 28, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The U.S. administration’s plan to slap tariffs on $60 bn worth of Chinese imports has raised concerns that the squabble could escalate into a global trade war.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Slippery Slope – March 23, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent risk-off phase was initially driven by rising bond yields, but now fears of protectionism have moved to the forefront. Barring an escalating trade war, we expect the pause in bond yields and correction in equity prices to reverse beyond the near run.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – BoE Will Lag: Stay Overweight Gilts – March 23, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Charts – U.S. Economy: Inflation In Charts – March 20, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

U.S. inflation is not rapidly accelerating as many feared last month, nor is it losing steam as many investors now believe: conforming to our expectations, inflation remains in a gradual uptrend.



 

Mexico – A Populist Win In Mexico, Thanks to Trump – March 20, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Mexico will elect a new president on 1 July, and the runaway front-runner is an old-school populist with a long track record of incendiary and hyper-leftist positions, who failed on his two previous attempts to win the presidency.



 

Global Fixed Income – G7 Bond Yields: Up In Waves – March 16, 2018
 · Asset Class Reports · Fixed Income · 

Our view since late last year has been that the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield would break through its early-2017 high, and then rise sharply toward 3% by the end of 2018 Q1.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Tug-Of-War – March 16, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in bond yields and equity prices is on temporary hold: growth momentum will slow a notch and protectionist concerns may keep some investors cautious, yet the cyclical buildup of inflation pressures will persist



 

GFI – Fixed Income – Fed’s Equilibrium Policy Rate Forecast Is Too Low – March 16, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Charts – The Great Monetary Unwind: Case By Case Basis – March 13, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · 

The Fed has led the global monetary unwind over the past couple of years, but an increased number of central banks have either joined or are preparing to do so in the months or year ahead.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Choppiness Will Persist In The Near Term – March 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets will continue to be in flux in the near term given uncertainty about the inflation and interest rate outlook as well as fresh policy risks, including the recent U.S. protectionist measures.



 

Canada – Economy: Solid, But Highly Interest Rate Sensitive – March 2, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

In a world of rising government bond yields, it is important to monitor those economies that are most vulnerable to rising rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still In Flux – March 2, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The equity market correction has not yet run its course. On a positive note, the relative resilience of global financial stocks bodes well for another rally phase in the overall stock market



 

Webcast – Don’t Count On Goldilocks Returning (10min:51sec) – February 28, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins and Prajakta Bhide discuss the near term outlook for capital markets and Fed policy.



 

Policy – U.S. Policy: A Test For the Fed’s New Captain – February 27, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

New Fed Chair Powell did not signal any change in the anticipated monetary policy path in this week’s semi-annual report to Congress.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Equities: Time To Go Underweight Or Overweight? – February 23, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The correction in risk assets will probably persist in the near run.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Fed Become Hemmed-In? – February 16, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Further near-run turbulence in risk asset markets is probable until bond yields plateau.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – European Bond Yields: The Lifting Of Global Anchors – February 16, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Latam – Another Good Year Ahead – February 15, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Latam financial assets mildly underperformed their EM counterparts last year. However, the outlook… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Higher Volatility: It’s The Fundamentals – February 13, 2018
 · Equities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Volatility has reared its ugly head in the past two weeks, suddenly bolting… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Transitioning To A New Era – February 9, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk asset prices will remain under pressure until bond yields stabilize. The latter… Continue



 

India – Budget: Don’t Worry, Be Happy – February 8, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors are treating last week’s budget announcement as yet another policy mistake by… Continue



 

Webcast – The Correction Must Run Its Course (8min:50sec) – February 7, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 7 after… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Protecting Profits – February 5, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Two of the risk factors that we have been monitoring to time an… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Clearer Skies, Time To Harvest Yield – February 1, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We have been anticipating short-term turbulence for EM local-currency debt (EMLCD), followed by… Continue



 

Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:56sec) – January 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). January 31 after… Continue



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 30, 2018
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The High-Wire Act Continues – January 26, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The backdrop remains bond-bearish. Meanwhile, technical and valuation measures are progressively deteriorating for equities, particularly in the U.S.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Into The Extrapolation Phase – January 19, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investors are discounting positive earnings trends well into the future, but have not yet made a parallel adjustment to their interest rate expectations.



 

Webcast – U.S. Outlook: Solid Growth, Higher Inflation & Rising Yields (12min:14sec) – January 17, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar, Prajakta Bhide and Frank Petrocca provide MRB’s latest views on the U.S. economy and bond market.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – U.S. Term Premium Will Add To The Rise In Treasury Yields – January 12, 2018
Fixed Income · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Four-Legged Stool: One Too Many? – January 12, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain bearish on bonds and positive on the stock/bond ratio, but acknowledge that equity risks are increasing, with sentiment readings at their most frothy levels of the decade.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy –Risk Assessment: It’s Still Too Soon To Bail – January 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic and policy outlook remains positive for risk assets and we remain moderately overweight equities versus government bonds in a multi-asset portfolio.



 

Charts – U.S. Treasury Yields Heading Higher In 2018 – January 4, 2018
 · Fixed Income · 

U.S. Treasury yields are biased to the upside heading into 2018 based on deteriorating macro fundamentals.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Betting Against the Consensus – December 22, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global stock/bond ratio has more upside, but mostly because bonds will generate negative returns rather than due to huge equity gains in 2018.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – Great Monetary Unwind: A Slow But Steady Process – December 22, 2017
Fixed Income · 

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South Africa – All Gain, No Pain (Yet) – December 21, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · 

The rand has been one of the most popular EM assets in recent weeks as the market forecasted (correctly) that Mr. Ramaphosa would win the ANC leadership race.



 

Webcast – MRB’s Best Long-Term Bets (7min:39sec) – December 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines several of MRB’s multi-year investment recommendations.



 

Chile – Copper Trumps Politics – December 20, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Chilean peso has significantly lagged copper prices since the start of the year, suggesting that domestic factors, namely weak growth earlier this year and politics more recently, have weighed on the currency in 2017.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.



 

Policy – The Fed Sticks To Its Roadmap – December 14, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

Delivering a widely anticipated fed funds rate hike, the Fed continued to signal three rate hikes in 2018 at its December meeting.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – What’s Left To Discount? – December 8, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some near-run caution is warranted in risk asset markets, especially given prospects for higher bond yields.



 

WMS – Fixed Income – U.S. Inflation And Treasury Yields Poised To Rise In 2018 – December 8, 2017
Fixed Income · 

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Webcast – What’s In Store For 2018 (8min:45sec) – December 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for the macro backdrop and the implications for capital markets in 2018.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Outlook For 2018 – December 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

Strong returns for most risk assets combined with the advanced age of the U.S. economic expansion have many investors wondering to what extent dangers are building going into 2018.



 

Asset Allocation – The Yield Curve, Recessions And Asset Allocation – December 1, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · Fixed Income · 

An inverted yield curve has a reasonable track-record as an economic signal and hence the curve should be closely monitored in setting investment strategy and risk exposure. However, as an asset allocation and timing tool, there are several considerations in interpreting it.



 

Webcast – The Return Of Inflation: The Big Call For 2018 (10min:43sec) – November 29, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Prajakta Bhide provide MRB’s latest views on U.S. and global inflation. Highlights include:



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It All Comes Down To Inflation – November 24, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain near-run cautious on risk assets, but are still positive on the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Global Fixed Income Report – November 22, 2017
Fixed Income · 

G7 government bond yields have consolidated for much of 2017, after peaking at the beginning of the year. Stronger global growth has not been sufficient to drive bond yields higher, partially because G7 core inflation has softened.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 17, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A near-run correction in risk assets is underway. We do not expect it to progress into a significant setback and thus are not de-risking our moderately pro-growth stance.



 

Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

U.S. – Inflation: Cyclical Components And Canaries – November 15, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The persistent divergence between robust U.S. labor market data and subdued inflation has… Continue



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part IV): Timing The End Of The Bull Market – November 10, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the fourth and final MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 10, 2017
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A bond and equity correction looms as the inflation, policy and economic backdrop turns marginally less supportive. Moreover, high-yield corporate bond spreads have edged up lately, a potential warning sign for equities.



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – November 9, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Once the twin air pockets of a U.S. dollar rally and a Chinese… Continue



 

Webcast – It Will Be More Difficult Next Year (8min:07sec) – November 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 8 after… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – November 6, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global equities have powered ahead in recent weeks, benefiting our pro-growth investment stance…. Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – November 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports It’s been a banner year for investors. Global equity returns are 21% year-to-date… Continue



 

Policy – A New Fed Chair: More Of The Same, For Now – November 2, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Fed Board governor Jerome Powell was announced as the nominee for the Federal… Continue



 

Webcast – The Disinflation Tailwind Has Passed (9min:23sec) – November 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for the major asset classes and examines the key economic, policy and valuations drivers.



 

South Africa Report – October 31, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

South African financial markets were buffeted by yet another government misstep, this time in last week’s mid-term budget speech during which the Finance Minister downplayed fiscal consolidation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 27, 2017
Asset Class Reports · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Both the ECB and the BoC confirmed that they remain keen to stay behind the economic curve, which is pro-growth and bullish for the global stock/bond ratio.



 

Long-Term Returns Report – October 26, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · 

The coming decade will see an end to an era of steadily declining discount rates and the associated boost to asset valuations. Prospective returns for balanced portfolios will be middling by historical standards, accompanied by lower Sharpe ratios.



 

Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part II): Asset Class Positioning – October 25, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the second MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle, which is one of our most popular thematic frameworks. Part I outlined our framework and where financial markets currently are within the investment cycle.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 20, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prospects for the three legs in the global economic stool – the U.S., euro area and China – remain upbeat.



 

Switzerland – Will The SNB Join The Great Monetary Unwind? – October 13, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Research Reports · 

Swiss policymakers have struggled in recent years to set an appropriate policy mix for the overall economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 13, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We examine the main cyclical risk factors and conclude that they are still not flashing warning signs.



 

Latam Report – Opportunities Loom For Latam – October 12, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

A number of interesting investment opportunities will emerge in Latam financial markets once the final U.S. dollar cyclical upleg reaches its apex, and a China-related air pocket in commodity pits is out of the way.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – October 11, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks over the years.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – October 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

The current sweet spot is likely to give way to a more challenging investment climate in the year ahead…



 

U.S. – Dissecting U.S. Inflation & Wages: Not As Bond Friendly As Perceived – October 5, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

Inflation has been a hot topic among investors and FOMC members during this entire business cycle.



 

Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 29, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shifting trends in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could create near-term capital market turbulence.



 

China – Reserve Currency Status: Can China Fake It ‘til It Makes It? – September 26, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. dollar weakness, an improving balance of payments and a solid domestic economy have all provided support for the Chinese yuan this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 22, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Cyclical prospects for the global stock/bond ratio will remain upbeat until the massive gap between interest rates and nominal GDP growth closes meaningfully.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 15, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk appetite measures confirm that investors have become optimistic, but financial stress gauges are still upbeat.



 

Theme – Market Impact If The U.S. Dollar Melts – September 14, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon. In the current environment of solid growth and easy monetary policy, it will take some combination of economically-damaging political turmoil, decisively higher bond yields and/or a material breakdown in the U.S. dollar to threaten equities.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – September 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 8, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-term turbulence in risk assets may persist given the tense political and geopolitical backdrop.



 

Webcast – Geopolitical Jitters: De-Risking Not Yet Warranted (6min:36sec) – September 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses asset allocation and investment strategy amidst the challenging political/policy backdrop.



 

Asset Allocation Report – September 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

An essentially quiet summer season (Northern Hemisphere) in capital markets has given way to renewed



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – August 31, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Whenever the U.S. dollar index weakens, the relative performance of any non-dollar asset… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – August 30, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

In a world still starved for yield, small changes in relative interest rate expectations can have a disproportionate impact on foreign exchange markets.



 

Policy – Shrinking The Fed’s Balance Sheet: Much Ado About Nothing – August 24, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Many investors believe the Fed will have to decide between either shrinking its… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – August 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Market participants normally desire a solid economy, pro-growth policies, stability and predictability. President… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – EM Dollar Debt: A Relative Value Play – August 8, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Emerging market dollar debt (EMD$) survived a bout of commodity weakness earlier this… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – August 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Many investors fear that the bull market in risk assets is in increasing… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – July 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global macro backdrop remains favorable for equities and other risk assets, while… Continue



 

Policy – Why The Fed Will Hike Rates More Than You Think – July 27, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We have a very different view on the outlook for Fed policy than… Continue



 

Fixed Income – The ECB Is The Fed With A Lag – July 21, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The euro area economy is following the path of the U.S. and not… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 21, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Recent currency strength may delay/mute the move by non-U.S. central banks to become… Continue



 

Theme – Yield Curve: Don’t Fear The Flattener, Fear The Steepener – July 20, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors have grown accustomed to viewing a flattening yield curve as a bad… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Impacts Of The Great Monetary Unwinding – July 11, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Macro support for bond bulls has been eroding steadily in recent years, a… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – July 11, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We are cutting both duration and government bond exposure to maximum underweight within… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – June 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Maintain a mild pro-growth cyclical bias favoring equities over bonds, but expect near-term… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – When China And Commodities Falter, Which EM Assets Benefit? – June 29, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A likely 20% decline in the broad commodity price indexes and/or a meaningful… Continue



 

Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – June 22, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports An increased number of central banks are feeling pressure to capitulate from an… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 16, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors continue to bet that the Fed will not raise rates much higher… Continue



 

South Africa Report – June 15, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The widely-followed Composite Business Cycle Indicator’s improvement only reflects better external conditions, and… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 9, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Politics dominate the headlines, but improving corporate profits bode well for the global… Continue



 

Webcast – It’s The Economy… (8min:44sec) – June 7, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 7 after… Continue



 

China – A Tale Of Two Chinese Bond Markets: Are Foreign Investors Too Complacent? – June 6, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s domestic corporate bond yields and spreads have increased in recent months as… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – June 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Some bumps are likely in the near run, but the fundamentals point to… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 26, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Prospects remain positive for the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon,… Continue



 

Latam Report – Four Questions – May 23, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s impending housing market slowdown will weigh on commodity prices and Latam growth… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 19, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. political risks have increased and could trigger a risk-off phase. Equity leadership… Continue



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – May 18, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 12, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Near-run concerns aside, the 6-12 month outlook for the global stock/bond ratio is… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – May 5, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Cyclical macro forces still point to higher G7 yields. The secular outlook for… Continue



 

Fixed Income – How Bubbly Is The Bond Market? – May 5, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Cyclical macro forces still point to higher G7 yields. The secular outlook for… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 28, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Euro area prospects improved this week, and we expect the growth gap between… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 21, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The current correction phase in risk assets will persist but we do not… Continue



 

Webcast – DM Sovereign Debt Markets: Assessing Structural Vulnerabilities (7min:59sec) – April 19, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). April 19 after 2:00… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – India: Structural Reforms And Roadblocks – April 18, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports India’s structural reform agenda remains on track, and should benefit from Prime Minister… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Assessing Developed Market Sovereign Debt Risks – April 13, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Mismanagement of public finances has left much of the developed world susceptible to… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – April 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A correction/consolidation phase for risk assets may prevail in the near term, but… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – March 30, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A continued normalization of U.S. policy rates is bearish for bonds. Stay short… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 24, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The difficulty of legislating large policy changes in Washington is becoming apparent, setting… Continue



 

Webcast – EM Dollar Debt And Mexico: Overweight Now, Diverge Later (9min:26sec) – March 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 22 after… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Tequila Sunrise: Upgrade Mexico – March 21, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Firming U.S. non-oil imports will boost Mexican growth momentum, narrow the current account… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 17, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are vulnerable to a correction in the near term, following recent… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – March 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global economic expansion is likely to again become less synchronized as the… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – EM Dollar Debt: Still A Commodity Play – March 14, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Narrowing EM dollar debt (EMD$) spreads and double-digit returns over the past year… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 10, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global economic backdrop is brighter than has been the case for several… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – March 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Continue to overweight equities versus bonds on a 6-12 month horizon, although risks… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Eastern Europe: A High Beta Play On The Euro Area Recovery? – March 2, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Idiosyncratic factors have lowered the region’s beta to the euro area economy, and… Continue



 

Webcast – Another Bite At The Brazilian Cherry (7min:11sec) – March 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 1 after… Continue



 

Canada – Canada Finally Faces Its Challenges – February 28, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy has weathered the commodity fallout reasonably well, and growth conditions… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – February 24, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The MRB U.S. Recession Checklist Indicator remains at a low level. We are… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – February 23, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A comparison with previous market selloffs suggests that DM government bonds have likely… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Brazil Bonds: Another Bite At The Cherry? – February 21, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Stay overweight Brazil in an EM fixed-income portfolio with a bias to downgrade…. Continue



 

Strategic Trader Report – February 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. high-yield corporate bonds will still generate positive absolute returns, but much of… Continue



 

The Global Inflation Outlook And Inflation-Linked Bonds: Favor The U.S. – February 16, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Our base case economic view points to a continued rise in U.S. core… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – February 10, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The consolidation in risk asset prices may persist, given overextended technical conditions and… Continue



 

Webcast – Policy Uncertainty Amidst Improving Growth (9min:27sec) – February 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 8 after… Continue



 

South Africa Report – February 7, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A downturn in China’s housing cycle will dent Chinese demand for primary goods… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – February 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Favorable economic tailwinds warrant staying cyclically overweight equities versus bonds in a global… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – January 26, 2017
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Synchronized economic growth momentum is enough to justify a short duration bond stance,… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 20, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The pause in the dollar, bond yields, and equity & corporate bond prices… Continue



 

Strategic Trader Report – January 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global financial markets, particularly in the U.S., got a bit ahead of themselves… Continue



 

Webcast – EM Local Fixed Income: Choose Your Driver, And Stay Underweight (7min:14sec) – January 18, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 18 after 2:00… Continue



 

China – Can China Tolerate Higher Interest Rates? – January 17, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Chinese interest rates are likely to drift higher over the next 12 months,… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 13, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Maintain a mildly pro-growth investment stance, but be prepared for a further near-run… Continue



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Position For Commodity Prices, Not Fed Policy – January 12, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Webcast – MRB’s Key Themes: A Roadmap For Investors (8min:05sec) – January 11, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 11 after 2:00… Continue



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 10, 2017
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Another sustained upleg in the global stock/bond ratio is underway. While the investment… Continue



 

Equities – U.S. Style Cycle: Avoid Big Bets – January 3, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Upside risks to bond yields imply that value will outperform growth in the… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – December 22, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Existing economic conditions, as well as the potential for significant U.S. fiscal stimulus,… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – December 1, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports While the range of economic outcomes has widened, a further shift into pro-growth… Continue



 

Theme – Investing Around Trumponomics – November 17, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A Trump presidency creates more political, economic and financial market uncertainty over the… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – November 3, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global fixed-income investors should downgrade portfolio duration to neutral if Clinton wins next… Continue



 

Emerging Markets Fixed Income Report – Currency Volatility Still Drives Returns – November 1, 2016
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Theme – The Long-Term Rate Outlook (Part III): Future Aftershocks Vs Potential Stabilizers – October 27, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The MRB Aftershock Theory highlights that several additional shocks from the Great Recession… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Global Inflation-Linked Bonds: Stay Overweight, But Favor The U.S. – October 25, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The recent factors driving inflation expectations higher largely represent a catalyst for a… Continue



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle Update: A Fairly Unique Cycle – October 5, 2016
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The evolution of investor risk-taking has been extremely slow in recent years. This… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – September 29, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports It is difficult to see a material rise in government bond yields before… Continue



 

Theme – Yield Convergence And Risk Assets – September 8, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Yields in high-quality government bond markets have converged at very subdued levels. While… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – September 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Underweight government bonds and maintain duration at above-benchmark levels (for now). Upgrade DM… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Assessing Credit Quality For EM Government Bonds – August 18, 2016
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – August 2, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Central banks will keep overall conditions very accommodative in all developed economies, although… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – July 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There is presently little evidence indicating that the euro area economy is at… Continue



 

Theme – The Brexit Dominos – July 7, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.K. pound and domestic risk assets have been beaten up, but the… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – June 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The ingredients for a “short duration event” in the U.S. remain in place,… Continue



 

Theme – Reflating A Deleveraging World (Part III): Regional Assessment – June 15, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Aggressive U.S. policy reflation has been necessary to offset contractionary forces and encourage… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Canada: Economic Optimism Is Premature – June 2, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Household debt will limit the BoC’s ability to raise rates. The sharp rise… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – May 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The mere follow-through of gradual Fed rate hikes may spark a sizeable rise… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Global Credit Growth: Some Strategic Perspectives For Fixed Income Investors – May 24, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The heightened focus on debt following the global financial crisis has caused many… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt Markets: Unveiling Potential Risks – May 3, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Mismanagement of public finances has left much of the developed world susceptible to… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – April 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Many investors have misinterpreted Yellen’s March 29 speech, and are simply not prepared… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Will The U.S. Yield Curve Steepen? – April 14, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There is a strong historical and analytical basis for the U.S. 2/10 yield… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – March 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors should consider the risk of potentially higher yields to be the driving… Continue



 

Fixed Income – U.S. High-Yield Corporate Bonds: A Quick Update – March 10, 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Today’s ECB announcement has the potential to drive U.S. corporate bond spreads sharply… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – February 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. economic data do not support recessionary fears. Global fixed-income investors should stay… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – January 2016
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A powerfully bearish narrative may cause government bond yields to continue to fall… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – December 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There are multiple potential catalysts to suggest that global 10-year government bond yields… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – November 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Fed tightening is now imminent, and may spark a major behavioral shift among… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – October 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Fed rate hike catalyst has likely been delayed until Q1 2016. The… Continue



 

Fixed Income – U.S. High-Yield Corporate Bonds: Six Key Questions – October 6, 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Broadly-speaking, predicting a significant rise in the high-yield default rate is akin to… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – September 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Fed was overly transparent in its communication last week, and did not… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – August 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global deflation trade is a false narrative that will dissipate over the… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – July 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The first Fed rate hike is likely to cause a rise in global… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – June 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. growth will improve later this year, as the full stimulative effect of… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Global Bonds: Policy Drivers And Perspectives – June 4, 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual region (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – May 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Recent relative performance of key markets, as well as our relative valuation indicators,… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – April 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Bond yields remain too low in much of the developed world, and a… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – March 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Treasurys remain overvalued even based on the new FOMC rate path projection. Neither… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – February 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The first Fed rate hike in nearly a decade is likely to act… Continue



 

Theme – The Market Consequences Of A Global “Crisis Of Faith” – February 10, 2015
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Many investors have become cynical about the potential for the world economy to… Continue



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Playing Chicken With The Fed – January 13, 2015
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A negative correlation between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is unprecedented… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – November 26, 2014
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual section (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Sovereign Debt Markets: Risk Assessment – November 4, 2014
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Mismanagement of public finances has left much of the developed world susceptible to… Continue



 

Fixed Income – U.S. High-Yield: Is Junk Getting Junkier? – October 21, 2014
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports From a cyclical perspective, high-yield spreads reflect investor expectations about the likelihood of… Continue



 

Fixed Income – Bubble Mentality In The U.S. Treasury Market – October 20, 2014
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investor behavior related to high quality sovereign debt has many uncanny similarities with… Continue



 

Fixed Income – U.S. Treasury Market: Deciphering Crosscurrents – October 16, 2014
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The plunge in yields has left the U.S. Treasury market overbought, overvalued and… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – September 4, 2014
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual section (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – June 26, 2014
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual section (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Fixed Income – The Fed And The Yield Curve – June 10, 2014
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. bond yields are cyclically depressed and will move higher as the economy… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income Report – March 6, 2014
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual section (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – December 12, 2013
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual section (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – September 5, 2013
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual section (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Theme – Tracking The U.S. Treasury Bear Market – August 6, 2013
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The underlying uptrend in yields should be relatively gentle in the coming years,… Continue



 

Theme – How To Position In EM US$ Sovereign Debt – July 16, 2013
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Stay maximum overweight EM U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign debt in global portfolios. We expect… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – June 6, 2013
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual section (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Theme – This Is Not 1994 – March 27, 2013
 · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Fed will remain extremely transparent and try to limit interest rate volatility… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – March 7, 2013
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual section (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – December 6, 2012
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Duration: Traditional safe havens are expensive. Government yields have bottomed and will grind… Continue



 

Theme – Sovereign Debt Crises: Where Will The Next Shoe Drop? – November 27, 2012
 · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Sovereign debt strains in the periphery euro area will persist. The Japanese and… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – September 4, 2012
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Duration: Government bonds are extremely overvalued. The path higher for yields will be… Continue



 

Theme – U.S. Retail Investor Behavior: Still A Contrary Indicator? – July 10, 2012
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The cult of equities ended in the early-2000s and has been replaced by… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – June 19, 2012
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Duration: We are slightly below benchmark duration and underweight government bonds. Sovereign debt… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – March 6, 2012
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Duration: Government bond yields are likely to creep higher this year. Stay slightly… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – December 13, 2011
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Please note: There will be a Webcast on Wednesday, December 14th, which is… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – September 27, 2011
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Duration: Remain neutral duration for now but look to cut to a below… Continue



 

Global Fixed Income (Quarterly) – June 28, 2011
 · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Duration: Remain below benchmark duration. Government bonds are vulnerable unless the global economy… Continue