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equities

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.

MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – December 9, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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China 2023 Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…

2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.

Equities – Encouraging Signs From The Euro Area – November 25, 2022
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – The Implications Of A Desynchronized U.S. Profit Cycle – November 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The U.S. profit cycle has decelerated sharply this year after a period of extraordinary growth following the re-opening of the economy in 2021.

Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Patience And Realism Required – (12min:48sec) – November 22, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns and the implications for strategic asset allocation over the next decade.

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;

Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.

Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Is All The Bad News Discounted? – November 8, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. semiconductor stocks have posted big losses in 2022, with the semiconductor & semi-equipment index falling nearly 40% year-to-date on growing fears of a recession.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.

China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.

Webcast – U.S. Consumer Discretionary Stocks Will Remain Challenged – (11min:11sec) – November 2, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti examines the outlook for U.S. consumer discretionary stocks.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…

MRB TradeBook Update – Tactically Adding More Beta – October 28, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Too Early To Get More Constructive – October 27, 2022
 · Equities · 

We entered 2022 with an underweight recommendation on the U.S. consumer discretionary sector.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.

Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.

Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.

MRB TradeBook Update – New Equity Pair Trade – October 14, 2022
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U.S. Equities – Road & Rail Stocks: Why Relative Performance Is At Risk Of Getting Derailed – October 13, 2022
 · Equities · 

The U.S. Class 1 railroads are great businesses. That said, these companies are not impervious to an economic slowdown/downturn, nor are they immune to operational challenges.

Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts, Webinars & Roundtables · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.

Brazil – Defying Gravity – October 10, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazilian assets rallied after last week’s general election as the worst-case scenario for financial markets, in which former President Lula secures a first-round victory, was avoided. Therefore, the favorable relative growth backdrop which has been driving outperformance will remain intact.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.