MacroResearchBoard

equities

U.S. Equities – Small-Cap Stocks: Crosscurrents Keep Us On The Sidelines – September 19, 2023
 · Equities · 

Despite receding recession fears and concerns over the stretched performance of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks, U.S. small-cap equities have remained relatively out of favor with investors.

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.

Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

Canada – Housing: Sliding Down The Slippery Slope Of Hope – September 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

A massive Canadian housing bubble has been inflated in response to more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.

China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.

Global Equities – How Threatening Are Higher Bond Yields? – August 30, 2023
 · Equities · 

Global equities have re-rated significantly this year even as G7 10-year government bond yields have risen.

Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.

Emerging Market Equities – Time To Rotate To EM ex-China – August 24, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

For those who have no mandated exposure to EM and make an undifferentiated call on the EM aggregate, we are continuing to recommend an overweight in EM stocks within a global equity portfolio.

U.S. Equities – Aerospace & Defense Stocks: Poised To Regain Altitude – August 22, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. aerospace & defense stocks have lagged the broad equity market year-to-date following significant outperformance in 2022.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.

Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.

Webcast – Hopes Dashed By Lack Of A China Property Bailout – (5min:45sec) – August 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani ran through some recent developments in China which have triggered a material market reaction.

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.

U.S. Equities – Moody’s Downgrade Of Banks Mostly Recognizes What Is Already Known – August 11, 2023
 · Equities · 

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China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.

Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.

Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.

Global Equities: Identifying Opportunities Among Major Non-U.S. Markets – July 25, 2023
 · Equities · 

With all eyes recently on U.S. stocks, it is easy to miss important trends among the major non-U.S. markets.

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.

Theme – Artificial Intelligence: Less Than Meets The Eye For Equities – July 18, 2023
 · Themes · 

We are optimistic that A.I. can boost U.S. economic growth and productivity, although we caution that any estimate of the magnitude embodies considerable guesswork…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.

MRB TradeBook – Long Energy And Japanese Financials – July 14, 2023
Absolute Return · 

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China – Undervalued And Unloved, But Undeniably Growing – July 13, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Second-quarter earnings results are about to start rolling in, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.

U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Earnings Must Jump Over A Higher Bar In Q2 – July 12, 2023
 · Equities · 

Second-quarter earnings are about to get underway, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.

Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”