equities


 

Weekly Macro Strategy – (Finally) A Low-Side U.S. CPI Print, But Its Only A Temporary Reprieve – June 14, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s low-side U.S. CPI report followed high-side prints earlier this year, and is not indicative of the underlying trend. The latter is “sticky” and set to hold well above 2% in the coming year.



 

China – Economic Momentum Firms – June 13, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Investors taking note of the firming of China’s economic momentum will probably be rewarded by placing their bets on this recovery outside the country for the time being.



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care Stocks: Down, But Not Out – June 12, 2024
 · Equities · 

U.S. health care stocks have been through a rocky period in the past year…



 

EM Elections – Smoke But No Fire, Yet – June 7, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

It has been a busy political calendar for emerging markets over the past week, with elections in India, Mexico and South Africa all delivering surprising results and sharp selloffs.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The End Is Not Nigh – June 7, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

While the catalyst for an end of the economic expansion is not yet in place, the investment landscape is likely to be choppy over the next 6-12 months…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Policy Rates, But Higher Bond Yields: This Won’t Last – May 31, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields are firming anew, which threatens the risk-on backdrop.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Reckoning Is Inevitable – May 30, 2024
 · 

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This old saw is especially relevant as the macro drivers of strong capital market returns over most of the past 40 years no longer pertain.



 

U.S. Equities – Q1 2024 Earnings Review: Solid Results Set The Stage For 2H Broadening – May 28, 2024
 · Equities · 

Last week’s earnings announcements from NVIDIA and a host of retailers marked the tail end of the U.S. first quarter earnings reporting season.



 

Webinar – Emerging Markets: Navigating Global Cross Currents – (61min:41sec) – May 22, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

As the global trade cycle recovers and China’s growth firms, the backdrop for EM assets appears solid.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Hope Versus Reality – May 17, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. inflation is proving stubborn, and holding well above the Fed’s 2% target.



 

U.S. Equities – Chemical Stocks: Destocking Is Over, But Don’t Expect Earnings Fireworks – May 14, 2024
 · Equities · 

The U.S. chemical industry is set to gradually return to growth in 2024-2025 following a period of contraction that was driven by significant inventory destocking beginning in Q3 2022…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Resilience, Rotation And Divergences – May 10, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is slowly improving, led by the still-strong U.S. Although the DM weak-link economies have slowed, they are not yet signaling undue stress.



 

China – Stocks Rally Just As Earnings Fade – May 9, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

It is rare for the momentum of stock prices and of forward earnings to move in opposite directions, but the current rally in Chinese stocks appears to be led by domestic retail investors…



 

Webcast – The Economy, Not The Fed Will Drive Markets – (13min:02sec) – May 7, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Bank On Fed Rate Cuts – May 3, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Swings in expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to drive global capital market performance.



 

Absolute Return – Capitalizing On G7 Central Bank Missteps And Divergences – May 2, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

Many investors and strategists focus far too much attention on reading the proverbial tea leaves of central banks (particularly the Federal Reserve) to decipher how policymakers intend to shift interest rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Buckle Up: The Backdrop Will Be Challenging – April 26, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Remain underweight bonds within a multi-asset portfolio. Monetary conditions are not yet restrictive, as is evident by firming global growth.



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Q1 Earnings And What They Signal For The Outlook – April 25, 2024
 · Equities · 

Markets initially reacted negatively to the first-quarter earnings announcements of the major U.S. banks.



 

Emerging Market Equities – EM Stocks Will Outperform As Global Trade Recovers – April 25, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

With the level of imports rising in the U.S., China and Japan (albeit not yet in the euro area) a recovery in the global trade cycle is now a reality rather than a forecast.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Correction, But Not (Yet) A Bear Market – April 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk asset markets will remain under pressure until the Treasury market calms.



 

Video – Secular Stagnation: A Disastrous Assumption – (16min:15sec) – April 16, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

One of the most damaging assumptions ever made by policymakers, especially the Federal Reserve, as well as the broader investment community, was that the world fell into Secular Stagnation in the 2010s.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Maybe 5%, Not 4%, Is The New 2% – April 12, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A still robust U.S. economy and an improving global economic backdrop are positive for corporate profits and the global stock/bond ratio.



 

U.S. Equities – Energy Stocks: Macro Conditions Warrant Staying Long – April 11, 2024
 · Equities · 

U.S. energy stocks have enjoyed strong outperformance in recent months as oil prices have risen in response to improving global manufacturing PMIs and ongoing geopolitical unrest.



 

China – Earnings Are Lagging The Economy – April 11, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

In the face of near-universal bearishness among the chattering classes overseas about its economic prospects…



 

Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…



 

Webcast – U.S. Small Caps: Lacking Support From Relative Earnings – (9min:52sec) – April 2, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. small-cap stocks and the factors that have been holding back their relative performance.



 

Regional Equities – Market Broadening Will Continue – March 28, 2024
 · Equities · 

The latest dovish rhetoric from the Fed is a “green light” for risk taking and will support global equities in the near run, especially since global growth momentum is improving.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Long-Run Tailwind For Treasury Yields – March 28, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Signs of froth have emerged, but risk-on should persist until the next sustained rise in DM government bond yields develops, which we do not expect in the coming months.



 

Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Free Money Era Is Officially Over – March 22, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Further near-run upside is probable in risk asset markets.



 

MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – March 22, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe recommend tightening stops on our long EM Asian equities position (up 11%) to… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Q4 2023 Earnings Review: Key Takeaways And The Outlook – March 19, 2024
 · Equities · 

Rising 12-month forward earnings and sales have been key sources of support for the rally in U.S. equity prices.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Rate-Cutting Window Closes Another Notch – March 15, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Ongoing U.S. economic strength and an improving global economic outlook warn against complacency on the inflation outlook.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening A Stop And Closing One Position – March 15, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some positioning changes in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN STOPS –… Continue



 

Equities – U.S. Tech Stocks: Size Matters – March 14, 2024
 · Equities · 

Today’s U.S. tech stocks may or may not be in a bubble, but it will be increasingly difficult to outperform given their huge size…



 

U.S. Equities – Small Caps: Poor Relative Earnings Remain A Hindrance To Outperformance – March 11, 2024
 · Equities · 

U.S. small-cap stocks have rebounded from their lows in late-October, supported by the increase in risk appetite that has taken hold since the Fed began signaling that it had reached the end of its rate-hiking cycle.



 

China – CSI 300 Stocks Are Stirring – March 7, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Although the U.S. stock market continues to outperform all its foreign competitors, including China, this performance has been driven by the extraordinary gains of a handful of mega-cap stocks that carry significant valuation risk.



 

Webcast – Japanese Equities: Ride The Cyclical Upcycle – (8min:14sec) – March 6, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses prospects for Japanese stocks and implications for positioning them within a global equity portfolio.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Time To Diversify – March 5, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The economic and policy environment remains supportive of pro-growth investments, but the rally is not without risks.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…



 

Webinar – U.S. Equities: A Goldilocks Landing Has Been Priced. Now What? – (79min:10sec) – February 28, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for the U.S. equity market and MRB’s positioning recommendations and sector views.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – One Window Is Closing, Is Another Opening? – February 23, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed et al have set themselves up for yet another pivot. The hoped-for return of inflation to 2 percent is not going to occur.



 

U.S. Equities – Exceptionalism Is Fully Discounted – February 22, 2024
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. equities have rallied strongly over the past four months, climbing to a… Continue



 

Emerging Market Equities – The Stars Align For EM ex-China – February 22, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

What to do about cheap and unloved Chinese stocks? We recognize that many foreign investors have relegated China to “non-investable” status…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticky Inflation: Is 4% The New 2%? – February 16, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed et al have set themselves up for yet another pivot. The hoped-for return of inflation to 2% is not going to occur.



 

Equities – Japan: Is This Time For Real? – February 13, 2024
 · Equities · 

Japanese equities have surged over the past year and are now within sniffing distance of the 1989 bubble peak in yen terms.



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care: The Case For Favoring Medical Devices Over Managed Care Solidifies – February 8, 2024
 · Equities · 

The shares of U.S. managed care companies have been under pressure since industry bellwethers…



 

China – Defibrillator Applied To Equities, Again – February 8, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese policymakers have once again applied the defibrillator to stock market sentiment.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downgrade Alert(s) – January 26, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. economic conditions do not warrant lower policy rates, and such conditions are not likely to develop in 2024.



 

U.S. Equities – Transportation Stocks: Primed To Rebound – January 25, 2024
 · Equities · 

The depressed relative performance of U.S. transportation stocks indicates that the market expects challenging industry conditions to persist in the coming year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks Is At Risk – January 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The front-running of DM policy rate cuts has eased only slightly of late, and is still far too aggressive relative to the economic/inflation outlook. 



 

Absolute Return Strategy – From “Soft Landing” To “No Landing” – January 18, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The equity and bond market are both priced for a Goldilocks U.S. economic outcome that is unlikely to persist as the year progresses.



 

Webinar – Canada’s Housing Crisis & Impact For Investors – (49min:00sec) – January 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist, has made headlines in Canada by expressing MRB’s view on Canadian housing, the BoC and implications for domestic investors.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Aggressive Rate-Cut Expectations Leave Most Markets Vulnerable – January 12, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth prospects were already modestly upbeat last autumn and have improved further due to much lower DM policy rate expectations and the sizable rebound in global financial markets.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tighten Stops On A Winner, And Adding A New Position – January 12, 2024
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe are tightening the stop on our winning long natural gas position and initiating… Continue



 

China – Reform Chatter Fails To Inspire Investors (So Far) – January 11, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Two recent events have raised the prospect that Chinese policymakers might be inclined to bite the bullet on significant structural reform.



 

U.S. Equities – Technology Stocks: Facing More Than Just Rotational Headwinds – January 10, 2024
 · Equities · 

U.S. technology stocks led big gains in the equity market for most of 2023.



 

Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2023 Review – January 9, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.



 

MRB TradeBook – Adding Some New Positions – January 5, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsFinancial markets have started the year with a continued shift favoring laggard assets, which… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – 2024: More Pivots Ahead – December 22, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase is stretched and due for a pause. However, a return to risk-off is unlikely until bond yields resume rising, which is still some ways off.



 

2024 Regional Equities Outlook – Banking On Better Breadth – December 21, 2023
 · Equities · 

Our constructive economic outlook points to a period of catch-up for this year’s laggards, although it will likely take time to develop.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.



 

2024 U.S. Sector Outlook – Laggards Will Get The Limelight – December 19, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. stocks are exiting 2023 riding a wave of optimism, punctuating a year of strong performance for the popular benchmarks.



 

2024 Emerging Market Equities Outlook – Global Trade Revival Will Favor EM – December 19, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM stocks tend to outperform their DM peers when global trade is sturdy, and the first signs of an upturn in global exports are already evident in the bellwether Korean and Taiwanese economies.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Demand, Corporate Profitability, And Inflation Are All Resilient – December 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The deceleration in DM inflation will peter out with underlying inflation still well above central bank targets if the global economic expansion rolls on, as we expect.



 

2024 Absolute Return Outlook – Focus On The Tails – December 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

2023 has turned out to be a rollercoaster for financial asset markets, with investors flipflopping on the recession call and outlook for policy rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Learning Curve – December 8, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The aggressive front-running of the next rate-cutting cycle is working at cross purposes to monetary policy and will prolong the expansion, as signaled by the sharp flip from risk-off to risk-on in recent weeks.



 

2024 China Outlook – Steady Growth Ahead – December 7, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Although few headlines in the financial media reflect this, 2023 was a year of solid, if patchy, economic growth momentum in China, which is closing out well ahead of mid-year consensus expectations.



 

2024 Asset Allocation Outlook – A Maturing Cycle, But The End Is Not Yet Nigh – December 1, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

A global or U.S. recession is not yet in the cards for 2024, although the lifespan of the economic expansion is inevitably shortening.



 

Webinar – EM ex-China Behind The Wheel, China In The Backseat – (59min:33sec) – November 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webinar Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek addressed the outlook for EM assets in absolute and relative terms over the coming 6-12 months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.



 

U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: A Fed Pause Is Not An All-Clear Signal To Buy – November 21, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. real estate stocks have taken a beating in recent years. The sector, which is mostly comprised of REITs…



 

Global Equities – How Long Can Goldilocks Last? – November 21, 2023
 · Equities · 

Our constructive economic outlook provides scope for global equities to move higher in the near term…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – November 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The benign near-run inflation outlook may help to sustain the consensus market view that the rate-hiking cycle is over.



 

Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.



 

Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.



 

MRB TradeBook – Some Tactical Changes – November 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

China – Growth: Half-Full, Or Half-Empty? – November 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese household consumption is the new version of the analogy of the glass being half full or empty.



 

Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.



 

U.S. Equities – Machinery Stocks: Staying Cautious – November 6, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. machinery stocks have underperformed the broad equity market since early-March, even as their relative 12-month forward earnings have continued to improve.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…



 

Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

U.S. Equities – Still Premature To Increase Defensive Positioning Beyond Health Care – October 24, 2023
 · Equities · 

Defensive sectors such as utilities, consumer staples, and health care have all lagged the broad U.S. equity market year-to-date.



 

Emerging Market Equities – EM ex-China Has The Earnings Beta – October 24, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Apart from some strong but short-lived bursts of outperformance, EM stocks have underperformed their DM (mainly U.S.) peers on a trend basis for a long time.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Market Reprieve #12 – October 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While conditions in the Middle East are still extremely uncertain, it does not seem likely that the war will have an impact on the global economic expansion. Consequently, our investment stance is unchanged.



 

China – Recovery Steps Up A Notch – October 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

What will it take for foreign investors to shake off their bearishness on Chinese assets?



 

Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.



 

U.S. Equities – Communication Services Stocks: Reasons To Stay Overweight – October 5, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. communication services stocks have seen their fortunes dramatically reverse in 2023.



 

Charts – Are The Global Weak Links About To Snap? – October 4, 2023
Economics & Policy · Themes · 

We are highlighting a chartpack on global weak-link economies with household sector excesses, including Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, and the U.K.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.



 

Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
 · Equities · 

Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…



 

Webinar – Will The Bond Market Spoil Goldilocks? – (71min:38sec) – September 27, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Webinar featured Salvatore Ruscitti discussing the macroeconomic outlook and the implications for the U.S. equity market and sector positioning.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The World Changed, But Central Banks Have Not (So Far) – September 22, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Early signs that DM headline inflation is leveling off well above 2% are ominous.



 

U.S. Equities – Small-Cap Stocks: Crosscurrents Keep Us On The Sidelines – September 19, 2023
 · Equities · 

Despite receding recession fears and concerns over the stretched performance of the “Magnificent Seven” mega-cap stocks, U.S. small-cap equities have remained relatively out of favor with investors.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.



 

Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Canada – Housing: Sliding Down The Slippery Slope Of Hope – September 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

A massive Canadian housing bubble has been inflated in response to more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.



 

China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.



 

Global Equities – How Threatening Are Higher Bond Yields? – August 30, 2023
 · Equities · 

Global equities have re-rated significantly this year even as G7 10-year government bond yields have risen.



 

Webcast – Euro Area: Is Pessimism Overblown? – (9min:43sec) – August 29, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa discuss the prospects for the euro area economy and MRB’s strongest non-consensus views.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Backing Off Or Breaking Out? – August 25, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global financial markets are on a knife-edge, with G7 bond yields testing their prior highs.



 

Emerging Market Equities – Time To Rotate To EM ex-China – August 24, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

For those who have no mandated exposure to EM and make an undifferentiated call on the EM aggregate, we are continuing to recommend an overweight in EM stocks within a global equity portfolio.



 

U.S. Equities – Aerospace & Defense Stocks: Poised To Regain Altitude – August 22, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. aerospace & defense stocks have lagged the broad equity market year-to-date following significant outperformance in 2022.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.



 

Euro Area – Down But Not Out – August 16, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

Today’s report addresses the forces currently driving the euro area economy and outlines a more constructive outlook for economic activity during the next 6-12 months.



 

Webcast – Hopes Dashed By Lack Of A China Property Bailout – (5min:45sec) – August 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani ran through some recent developments in China which have triggered a material market reaction.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.



 

U.S. Equities – Moody’s Downgrade Of Banks Mostly Recognizes What Is Already Known – August 11, 2023
 · Equities · 

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China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.



 

Global Equities: Identifying Opportunities Among Major Non-U.S. Markets – July 25, 2023
 · Equities · 

With all eyes recently on U.S. stocks, it is easy to miss important trends among the major non-U.S. markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Weak Links Are Still Not Snapping – July 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase will persist until DM government bond yields resume their underlying uptrend.



 

Theme – Artificial Intelligence: Less Than Meets The Eye For Equities – July 18, 2023
 · Themes · 

We are optimistic that A.I. can boost U.S. economic growth and productivity, although we caution that any estimate of the magnitude embodies considerable guesswork…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.



 

MRB TradeBook – Long Energy And Japanese Financials – July 14, 2023
Absolute Return · 

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China – Undervalued And Unloved, But Undeniably Growing – July 13, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Second-quarter earnings results are about to start rolling in, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.



 

U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Earnings Must Jump Over A Higher Bar In Q2 – July 12, 2023
 · Equities · 

Second-quarter earnings are about to get underway, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.



 

Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk-On Until Bond Yields Breakout – July 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks and investors have begun capitulating closer to our view that the cost of capital has not yet reached destabilizing levels.



 

U.S. Equities – Growth Stocks: Mounting Risks To The Rally – July 5, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. growth stocks have enjoyed a powerful resurgence this year versus their value brethren.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…



 

MRB TradeBook – Favor U.S. Large-Cap Banks Versus Their Regional Counterparts – June 30, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThe U.S. bank index has started to regain strength relative to the U.S. regional… Continue



 

Regional Equities – Mitigating Concentration Risk Across Regions And Sectors – June 29, 2023
 · Equities · 

Global equity market concentration risk has increased anew following the recent outperformance of U.S. tech and AI-related stocks.



 

Webcast – Three Underappreciated Factors That Will Support U.S. Bank Earnings – (9min:54sec) – June 28, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. bank earnings.



 

Emerging Market Equities – Get Ready To Rotate To EM ex-China – June 27, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The concept of a single “EM” asset class may well be out-dated (given that 60% of the index comprises China, Korea and Taiwan)…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…



 

EM Equities – Korea And Taiwan: AI-Phoria? Or Does The Rally Have Legs? – June 22, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Our upgrade of Korea within an EM equity portfolio in January proved timely insofar as Korean and Taiwanese stocks…



 

Webcast – China: Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – (7min:40sec) – June 21, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Earnings Face A Wall Of Worry, But Not A Cliff-Dive – June 20, 2023
 · Equities · 

The earnings of U.S. bank stocks face several crosscurrents in the year ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.



 

China – Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – June 15, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.



 

U.S. Equities – Energy Equipment & Services Stocks: Time To Start Nibbling – June 5, 2023
 · Equities · 

The U.S. energy equipment & services sub-group has lagged the overall equity benchmark year-to-date, along with the broader energy sector.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Mixed Signals = Overweight On Cash – June 2, 2023
Asset Allocation · 

Markets are providing decidedly mixed signals about the economic outlook, highlighting investor uncertainty.



 

MRB TradeBook – Euro Area Versus U.S. Equities – June 2, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsEuro area equities have come under significant more selling pressure compared to their U.S…. Continue



 

Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Isn’t Over – May 19, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist over the summer.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Late Cycle: Leaning Against The Consensus Yet Again – May 18, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The economic expansion has matured, and the investment cycle is now late.



 

Webcast – China: Consumers Stay Stingy, For Now – (7min:10sec) – May 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Thrice bitten by the uncertainty of pandemic lockdowns, Chinese consumers are shy.



 

U.S. Equities – It Gets Tougher From Here – May 16, 2023
 · Equities · 

The 6-12 month outlook for the U.S. equity market remains uninspiring.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fade Rate Cut Expectations – May 12, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields resume rising.



 

Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.



 

U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: Exceptional Valuations For Unexceptional Earnings – May 3, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. tech stocks have bounced back strongly this year after enduring a brutal sell-off in 2022.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.



 

Global Equities – Banks Are A Key Tell For Equity Performance – April 28, 2023
Equities · 

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Webinar – Investing In EM: China? India? Or Neither? – (59min:17sec) – April 26, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Webinar featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing the outlook for EM investing.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.



 

U.S. Equities – Earnings Outlook: Can Sales Expectations Hold Up? – April 19, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. corporate earnings will remain in the spotlight in the next few weeks as more companies report first-quarter numbers.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.



 

Emerging Market Equities – It’s All About China, For Now – April 13, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

In a world of constrained expectations and earnings counter-currents, EM stocks offer decent prospects for outperformance.



 

Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.



 

China – A “New” China: Growth Without Stimulus, Exports Or Housing – April 6, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

China’s reopening and economic recovery is finally observable in the hard economic data, rather than only from surveys.



 

U.S. Equities – Economic Concerns Mount, But Too Early To Go All-In On Defensives – April 5, 2023
 · Equities · 

Strains in the banking system have raised concerns about a retrenchment in bank lending, with negative implications for the broader U.S. economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Back To Pre-SVB Levels? – March 31, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain constructive on global economic prospects for the next 6-12 months, and do not expect much fallout from this month’s banking problems.



 

Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Positioning – March 30, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, but we expect the banking sector stresses to soon die down and for the global economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Bumps On The Road To The Finish Line – March 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Fragile sentiment relating to banks may linger for a while longer, but DM regulators will ultimately do whatever it takes to restore confidence in their banking systems…



 

U.S. Equities – Changes To The GICS® Structure: What Investors Need To Know – March 22, 2023
 · Equities · 

Changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) will be made in the coming months.



 

Theme – Making Money During China’s Demographic Decline – March 21, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Themes · 

China’s official population count for 2022 was published in January and showed 9.6m births, outweighed by 10.4m deaths.



 

Webcast – U.S. Bank Stocks: Idiosyncratic Rather Than Systemic Risks – (9min:29sec) – March 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the implications of recent developments in the banking industry and their impact on U.S. bank stocks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Widening Gap: Deleveraged Versus Weak Link Economies – March 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase seems likely to persist for as long as DM long-term bond markets are relatively calm, because recently only the short-end of the curve has reacted to rising policy rate expectations.



 

MRB TradeBook – Taking Profits – March 10, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsMarket volatility has caused us to take profits on three positions this week, these… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Addressing Three Popular Questions – March 9, 2023
 · Equities · 

Rising interest rates bring both opportunities and risks for the banking industry.



 

China – Surveys Show Recovery, Hard Data Will Follow – March 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

“Soft” data from surveys are showing China’s robust recovery is underway, but the usual seasonal distortions in hard data make it difficult to calibrate the implications for overall economic momentum for the time being.



 

Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.



 

MRB TradeBook – New Equity Pair Trade – March 3, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsLong U.S. Industrials Vs Consumer Discretionary Stocks: U.S. industrials have started to outperform their… Continue



 

Webinar – Investing In A Drawn-Out Late-Cycle Environment – (71min:13sec) – March 1, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Webinar featured Salvatore Ruscitti discussing the outlook for the U.S. equity market and the implications of the late-cycle macro environment for portfolio positioning.



 

Emerging Market Equities – More Than Just A China Bounce? – February 28, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

With China’s earnings momentum already improving and a material economic rebound under way this year, Chinese stocks are well set to outperform their EM and DM peers.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Service Sectors Gain Momentum, Bond Yields Are Next – February 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook has brightened: service sector activity is strengthening, especially in the euro area and Asia.



 

Global Equities – Elevated Cyclically-Adjusted Valuations Underscore Risk – February 23, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity valuations are often elevated toward the end of economic expansions when investor sentiment is optimistic, and earnings are high, which is the case today.



 

Webcast – Equity Dilemma: Stronger Economy Vs Higher Bond Yields – (10min:05sec) – February 22, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the major macro forces driving equities and bonds and narrows in on the current outlook for investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.



 

Equity Sectors – Which U.S. Sectors Are Most At Risk From Profit Margin Normalization? – February 17, 2023
Equities · 

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Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
 · Equities · 

There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…



 

Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.



 

Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue



 

China – Services Rebound, Broader Consumption Should Follow – February 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

The traditional travel boom during the Lunar New Year holiday period took place in January…



 

Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.



 

MRB TradeBook – Temporarily Step Aside From Shorting Growth Stocks – February 3, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The slowing of monetary tightening by the Fed has provided a near-term boost… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Small-Cap Stocks: Bullish Bets Are Not Yet Warranted – February 1, 2023
 · Equities · 

U.S. small-cap stocks have outperformed their large-cap counterparts over the past year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Revel From An (Expected) Rate Pause – January 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on, as headline inflation will steadily decelerate in the first half of 2023 and DM central banks will soon pause their rate hikes.



 

Korea – Export Recovery Papers The Cracks, For Now – January 26, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · 

Korea’s equity market massively underperformed emerging market peers (EM), leaving valuations at extremely attractive levels…



 

Webcast – Euro Area Relative Earnings Have Tailwinds – (10min:18sec) – January 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins examines euro area corporate profits to help gauge the sustainability of recent euro area equity strength and global outperformance.



 

Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2022 Review – January 24, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.



 

Webcast – The Impediments To A Revival Of U.S. Growth-Stock Leadership In 2023 – (9min:53sec) – January 18, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for the U.S. style cycle and addresses whether growth stocks can rebound in 2023.



 

Equities – Euro Area Earnings: Kicking Into Gear – January 17, 2023
 · Equities · 

Prospective better economic growth augurs favorably for euro area corporate profits in aggregate and for key cyclical sectors.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.



 

Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.



 

2023 U.S. Style Outlook – Can Growth Stocks Rebound? – January 10, 2023
 · Equities · 

Last year was annus horribilis for U.S. growth stocks. The latter bore the brunt of investor concerns over sharply rising inflation and interest rates.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.



 

China – Re-Opening Is Palpable, If Not Yet Measurable – January 5, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

High frequency data and anecdotal evidence suggest that Chinese workers and consumers are shaking off the tsunami of infections arising from the sudden abandonment of the COVID-zero policy.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth



 

2023 Regional Equities Outlook – Positioning For A Resilient Global Economy – December 22, 2022
 · Equities · 

A resilient global economy, elevated U.S. earnings and valuations, and an expected further depreciation of the U.S. dollar



 

2023 U.S. Sector Outlook – Another Year Of Challenges, But With Some Opportunities – December 21, 2022
 · Equities · 

Next year will bring slower U.S. economic growth and moderating inflation, which should lead to at least a temporary pause in Fed rate hikes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Global Economic Headwinds Easing – December 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some economic headwinds have recently eased, even as the major DM central banks have continued to hike their policy rates.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – December 9, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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2023 China Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…



 

2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For A While – November 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stay tactically positioned for risk-on; equity markets have the potential to rebound for as long as government bond markets stay calm.



 

Equities – Encouraging Signs From The Euro Area – November 25, 2022
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – The Implications Of A Desynchronized U.S. Profit Cycle – November 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The U.S. profit cycle has decelerated sharply this year after a period of extraordinary growth following the re-opening of the economy in 2021.



 

Emerging Market Equities – 2023 Outlook: A Sedate Recovery In Growth – November 23, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The current parlous state of earnings expectations in the EM world vindicates the steady underperformance of stock prices over the past year.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Patience And Realism Required – (12min:48sec) – November 22, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns and the implications for strategic asset allocation over the next decade.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;



 

Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.



 

Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Is All The Bad News Discounted? – November 8, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. semiconductor stocks have posted big losses in 2022, with the semiconductor & semi-equipment index falling nearly 40% year-to-date on growing fears of a recession.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.



 

China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.



 

Webcast – U.S. Consumer Discretionary Stocks Will Remain Challenged – (11min:11sec) – November 2, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti examines the outlook for U.S. consumer discretionary stocks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Yield Pause #3? – October 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical rise in global government bond yields is set to pause again, as economic activity is slowing…



 

MRB TradeBook Update – Tactically Adding More Beta – October 28, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Too Early To Get More Constructive – October 27, 2022
 · Equities · 

We entered 2022 with an underweight recommendation on the U.S. consumer discretionary sector.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Lower Global Inflation: Waiting For Godot? – October 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A tactical long opportunity in risk assets is possible in the coming months, assuming inflation starts to ease and the Fed et al turn less hawkish, as we expect.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.



 

Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More Of The Same – October 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, watch out for various “weak links”.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – New Equity Pair Trade – October 14, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Road & Rail Stocks: Why Relative Performance Is At Risk Of Getting Derailed – October 13, 2022
 · Equities · 

The U.S. Class 1 railroads are great businesses. That said, these companies are not impervious to an economic slowdown/downturn, nor are they immune to operational challenges.



 

Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.



 

Brazil – Defying Gravity – October 10, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazilian assets rallied after last week’s general election as the worst-case scenario for financial markets, in which former President Lula secures a first-round victory, was avoided. Therefore, the favorable relative growth backdrop which has been driving outperformance will remain intact.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.



 

China – Baby Steps To Evolving COVID-Zero – October 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

It may still only be a baby step, and by global standards it is a barely perceptible one.



 

U.S. Equities – Patience Is Prudence – October 5, 2022
 · Equities · 

Equities have started the fourth quarter on a more upbeat note after one of the worst Septembers on record.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.



 

Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
 · Equities · 

Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – September 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Although a recession over the 6-12 months has not been our base-case scenario, the odds of this outcome are increasing and will continue to climb if the rise in interest rate expectations persists unabated.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Higher Interest Rates Curb Risk Taking – September 23, 2022
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are facing renewed selling pressure and will continue to do so… Continue



 

Roundtable – Positioning In A World Of Higher-For-Longer Interest Rates – (79min:22sec) – September 21, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Salvatore Ruscitti discussing the outlook for the U.S. equity market and the implications of higher-for-longer interest rates on portfolio positioning.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Momentum – September 16, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The revival of inflation has ended the era of ever-higher financial asset prices and valuations.



 

Emerging Market Equities – In Search Of Earnings Growth (At A Reasonable Price) – September 15, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Forward earnings growth is hard to find in the EM world, and is absent from three of its four major bourses



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.



 

China – Pragmatic Policy In Hibernation – September 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 until 1992, famously said “no matter if it is a white cat or a black cat, so long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat”



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.



 

Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Don’t Use The 2010s As A Roadmap – August 26, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We expect the risk-on phase to persist, as easing inflation pressures and mixed economic prospects allow central banks to (temporarily) tone down their hawkish rhetoric this autumn.



 

U.S. Equities – Our Favorite Charts – August 26, 2022
 · Equities · 

Today’s report presents some of our recent “favorite” charts.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy



 

Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
 · Themes · 

There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk-On For Now, But Only If Bonds Stay Calm – August 19, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A cooling in inflation after the spike in the past year will prolong the pause phase in government bond markets. This, in turn, will support equities and credit in the coming months.



 

Equities – Canadian Equities: Dealing With Domestic Constraints – August 16, 2022
 · Equities · 

Canadian stock prices have rebounded over the past month along with global stocks, but have a long way to go to get back into the black for the calendar year.



 

U.S. Equities – Does The Inflation Reduction Act Warrant A More Cautious Stance On U.S. Health Care Stocks? – August 15, 2022
 · Equities · 

Last Friday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Inflation Reduction Act.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Payback Versus Catching Up – August 12, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

As expected, U.S. inflation has rolled over and will decelerate in the coming months, which will boost the prospects for extending the global economic expansion.



 

Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.



 

Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.



 

China – COVID-Zero Implies Continuing Economic Pain – August 4, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Prospects for a strong reopening recovery in China are evaporating in the face of the authorities’ obstinate attachment to a COVID-zero policy



 

U.S. Equities – Chemical Stocks: Trouble Brewing – August 3, 2022
 · Equities · 

Year-to-date, U.S. chemical stocks have performed broadly in line with the overall equity market, albeit with considerable volatility.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Mixed Messages – July 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

“Pause #2” in the cyclical bond yield uptrend is well advanced, and further downside in yields from current levels should be limited.



 

Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
 · Themes · 

The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”



 

Webcast – Dividends Matter – (8min:54sec) – July 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins examines dividends across global equity markets to provide support for equity portfolios in a turbulent investment climate.



 

Equities – Dividends Pay Dividends In Tough Times – July 26, 2022
 · Equities · 

Dividends are an underappreciated factor in equity investing, especially when investors are anxious about the global growth outlook, as is the case today.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.



 

Equities – As Go Industrials, So Go Equities – July 22, 2022
Equities · 

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Theme – Path To Recession: Timing Is Everything – July 21, 2022
 · Themes · 

The consensus has solidified on an expectation of a pending recession in the U.S. and global economy.



 

U.S. Equities – How Much Bad News Is In The Market? – July 19, 2022
 · Equities · 

The year-to-date decline in U.S. stock prices has been almost entirely driven by a contraction in valuation multiples.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.



 

Webcast – U.S. Growth Stocks: Relatively Oversold, But Not Compelling – (9min:25sec) – July 13, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses whether U.S. growth stocks can re-assert equity leadership in the second half of the year.



 

Equities – How Vulnerable Are Corporate Earnings? – July 12, 2022
 · Equities · 

After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession



 

U.S. Equities – Will Recession Concerns Revive The Relative Performance Of U.S. Growth Stocks? – July 7, 2022
 · Equities · 

There is a growing belief emerging among some investors that U.S. equity leadership will revert to growth equities in the second half of the year as inflation peaks



 

China – When Will Reopening Lift Earnings? – July 7, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

With signs of economic reopening, foreign investors have been piling back into Chinese stocks in recent weeks, having rushed for the exits in prior months during the peak of lockdowns.



 

Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Recession Or Resilience? – July 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Anxiety about the global growth outlook will persist in the near term, resulting in choppy capital market conditions and room for bond yields to retreat at least mildly further.



 

Emerging Market Equities – China’s Reopening Lifts EM, But For How Long? – June 30, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The long underperformance of EM has swung round into outperformance thanks to the desynchronized nature of Chinese economic momentum and its policy stance versus trends in developed markets (DM).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care Stocks Remain A Core Defensive Holding – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. health care stocks have outperformed the broad equity market year-to-date, led by the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology sub-groups



 

Regional Equities – Regional & Sectoral Balance For Turbulent Times – June 23, 2022
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop will remain challenging in the near term as investors assess the trade-off between elevated inflation and economic growth risks



 

Canada – Rising Interest Rates Threaten The Canadian Goose – June 22, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our latest views on the Canadian economy, particularly its interest rate sensitivity.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.



 

Webcast – Chinese Lockdowns Creating Pent-up Demand – (8min:58sec) – June 15, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani examines the outlook for China’s economy and markets in the context of renewed lockdowns imposed on Beijing and Shanghai in recent days



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Landing – June 10, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook for bonds is bearish, as the global economic expansion is expected to roll on and inflationary pressures are becoming entrenched.



 

Equities – Global Earnings: Some Cracks Are Starting To Appear – June 10, 2022
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Earnings Upgrades Starting To Take Hold – June 9, 2022
 · Equities · 

After sharply outperforming in January, U.S. bank stocks have lagged the broad equity market since the Russian invasion of Ukraine amid rising recession concerns



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
 · Themes · 

One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

China – The Stock Bounce Has Begun – June 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

A much-anticipated positive shift in sentiment towards Chinese stocks appears to have begun, supported by easier liquidity conditions



 

Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Euro Area: A Potential Source Of Positive Surprises – May 27, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There is the potential for equity markets to rebound should global growth conditions prove resilient, as we expect, and assuming interest rate expectations and bond yields stay calm for a period of time.



 

Equities – U.S. Stocks: Too Late To Sell, Too Soon To Buy? – May 27, 2022
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Q1 Earnings: What We Learned And What To Expect Going Forward – May 26, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. first-quarter earnings season is nearly in the books, with most members of the S&P 500 having reported results.



 

Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets



 

Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.



 

Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.



 

Webcast – China: How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – (7min:47sec) – May 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for China’s economy and markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.



 

U.S. Equities – Waiting For The Inflation Fever To Break – May 11, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. stocks have corrected sharply year-to-date, with the rise in corporate earnings more than offset by a sharp multiple compression as bond yields have surged.



 

Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.



 

China – How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – May 5, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese stocks and its currency have been buffeted by the fallout from draconian lockdowns that have spread out from the major trade hubs of the country during the course of March and April.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.



 

Asset Allocation – Extraordinary Times – April 29, 2022
Asset Allocation · Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Aerospace & Defense Stocks: On A Slow, But Positive Trajectory – April 28, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. aerospace & defense stocks have significantly outperformed the broad equity market year-to-date.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Future Has Arrived – April 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our investment stance, as the global economic expansion is proving to be durable despite recent hits to economic sentiment.



 

U.S. Equity Sectors – Tech Stocks: It May Be More Than Just Valuation Headwinds – April 22, 2022
Equities · 

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Equities – U.K.: Right Composition, Right Time – April 22, 2022
Equities · 

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Roundtable – Emerging Market Winners And Losers From The Russia/Ukraine War – (67min:04sec) – April 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing some of the geopolitical considerations arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine



 

Economy – U.S. Unemployment Is NOT Flashing A Warning Sign For Stocks – April 19, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · 

The level of U.S. unemployment is often overlooked as an investment timing tool and yet can provide significant value to investors



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.



 

Webcast – U.S. Bank Stocks: Earnings Will Have A Second Upleg – (11min:50sec) – April 13, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. bank stocks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Soon To Be Looking Towards The Next Valley – April 8, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The economic backdrop is proving resilient, especially in the U.S. and even in the euro area, despite the surge in bond yields and war in Ukraine.



 

U.S. Equities – Utility Stocks: The Catalysts For Sustained Outperformance Are Not In Place – April 6, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. utility stocks have enjoyed a relative bounce in recent months after a period of extended underperformance.



 

Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.



 

Emerging Market Equities – Fundamentals And Sentiment Diverge – March 31, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The outlook for EM equities is clouded by a lack of obvious earnings momentum, and although we still recommend holding it at overweight within a global equity portfolio, we see better opportunities outside the U.S., particularly in Europe.



 

U.S. Equities – Putin Or Powell: Who Matters More For U.S. Bank Stocks? – March 29, 2022
 · Equities · 

After strongly outperforming in January, U.S. bank stocks have lagged in the past couple of months, with relative performance weighed down by economic uncertainty stemming from the war in Ukraine.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Actions Speak Louder Than Words – March 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prior to March, the world economy, particularly the euro area, was accelerating, and this head of steam should largely remain intact, despite the uncertain near-run outlook.



 

Regional Equities – Post-War Performance Shifts Lie Ahead – March 24, 2022
 · Equities · 

The war in Ukraine is a near-term wildcard, but our expectation of an ongoing global economic recovery…



 

Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.



 

Equities – Global Equity Energy Plays: What’s In The Price? – March 15, 2022
 · Equities · 

Global energy stock prices are embedding a significant decline in crude oil prices



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.



 

Webcast – Looking Beyond The 0-1 Geopolitical Bet – (10min:42sec) – March 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and investment strategy for the next 6-12 months in the context of the Ukraine war.



 

Latam – Will Latam Win The Russia/Ukraine War? – March 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Russia/Ukraine war is undoubtedly a near-term headwind for Latin America’s financial assets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.



 

U.S. Equities – Hotel, Restaurant & Leisure Stocks: The Bullish Case Rests On Blockbuster Earnings – March 3, 2022
 · Equities · 

The sharp decline in Omicron cases has rekindled investor interest in stocks leveraged to a recovery in consumer spending on travel and leisure.



 

Russia – Becomes Uninvestable – March 1, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

The sanctions announced in Europe on Saturday, including partial restrictions on Russia’s access to SWIFT and the freezing of the central bank’s (BoR) foreign assets will ultimately lead to Russian recession.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Distorting To Reflective To Restrictive – February 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cyclically bearish on bonds, although yields could soon pause; conditions are becoming technically stretched and U.S. rate expectations have already ratcheted higher.



 

U.S. Equities – Continue To Favor U.S. Health Care Stocks Over Other Defensive Sectors – February 17, 2022
 · Equities · 

The shift of monetary policy from ultra-accommodative towards normalization is ushering in a regime of greater volatility in the equity and bond markets



 

Webcast – COVID Fades: The Impact Of Reopening – (9min:03sec) – February 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses what the unwinding of the pandemic means for the global economy, policy, and investment strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – End Of COVID And Free Money – February 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The two themes that will be crucial in shaping the global macro environment this year are the fading of COVID as a meaningful restraint on global mobilit



 

Webcast – The Ebbing Liquidity Wave – (9min:33sec) – February 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months highlight.



 

U.S. Equities – Growth Stocks: The Road Ahead Will Remain Rocky – February 9, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. growth stocks are in a tough spot. After massively re-rating in recent years, valuations relative to value equities are stretched at a time when bond yields are rising and central banks have started removing monetary accommodation.



 

China – Limping Into The Tiger – February 8, 2022
Emerging Markets · 

Appropriately enough, as the world celebrates the lunar new year, both bravery and unpredictability are the Tiger’s hallmarks in the Chinese zodiac.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.



 

Webcast – The ECB Will Follow The Fed’s Pivot – (9min:04sec) – February 1, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses the next big central bank surprise, namely a pivot from the ECB, which will have major ramifications across asset classes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.



 

Equities – Mind The Credit Signal – January 28, 2022
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Taking Advantage Of Market Volatility – January 27, 2022
 · Equities · 

U.S. equities have started the year on a turbulent note.



 

Euro Area – The Coming “Hawkish” Turn At The ECB – January 26, 2022
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

We expect the ECB will follow the Fed’s pivot later in 2022, and also begin the path to normalize policy thereafter.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.



 

Equities – Global Financials: Regional Opportunities In An Attractive Sector – January 21, 2022
Equities · 

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Emerging Market Equities – 2022 Outlook – January 20, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

In the face of the self-inflicted deleveraging process hurting its property sector, China bucked the global trend and cut its policy rate this week, while at the same time directing fiscal stimulus towards fixed asset and infrastructure spending.



 

Webcast – Conditions Favor A U.S. Small-Cap Rebound In 2022 – (11min:04sec) – January 19, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. small-cap stocks.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – A Choppy Transition – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Last year was largely characterized by risk-on, fueled by extremely accommodative global monetary and fiscal policies, and a massive liquidity wave.



 

Equities – Wages Aren’t The Main Near-Term Threat To U.S. Profits – January 18, 2022
 · Equities · 

Increasing labor costs will restrain U.S. profit margins over the next year and beyond, but the moderation in corporate revenue growth will be the primary driver of slowing earnings growth on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Follow The Leader, But Also Watch The Laggards – January 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic growth will be more resilient and stronger than last decade, given the more accommodative policy backdrop and fewer structural drags (the end of deleveraging and fiscal austerity in the U.S. and euro area).



 

Equities – The Risk Of An Unpredictable Fed – January 14, 2022
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Too Early To Write-Off U.S. Small-Cap Stocks – January 13, 2022
 · Equities · 

After massively outperforming in the 12 months following the market low in March 2020, U.S. small-cap stocks have significantly lagged their large-cap counterparts in the past nine months.



 

Webcast – As Go Bonds, So Will Go Risk Assets – (8min:35sec) – January 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended global multi-asset positioning.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.



 

China – Don’t Fight The PBoC – January 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Monetary policies will continue to diverge between China and other major economies, which will have a number of investment implications over the next 12 months.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.



 

Regional Equities – 2022 Outlook: Baby Steps To A Regional Equity Rotation – December 23, 2021
 · Equities · 

The macro backdrop for global equities will remain broadly supportive in 2022, but performance will be more volatile as global interest rates rise.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – 2022 U.S. Sector Outlook: Slower Growth Does Not Mean Low Growth – December 22, 2021
 · Equities · 

Next year is shaping up to be a more challenging period for the U.S. equity market.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part I) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

One of our core themes in 2021 has been that the global authorities have forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Prolonging The Cycle – December 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run COVID-19 related headwinds will act to prolong the economic cycle, but seem unlikely to derail the recovery, based on current information.



 

U.S. Equities – Favor Industrials Over Consumer Discretionary For 2022 – December 9, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. consumer discretionary stocks have outperformed their industrial counterparts year-to-date.



 

China – The Coming Consumption/Policy-Led Recovery – December 7, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

After an eventful year of widespread policy interventions that dragged growth from above-trend to its current below-trend pace, a modest policy stimulus is set to recalibrate China’s growth prospects in the months ahead.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.



 

Webcast – Navigating The COVID-19 Roller Coaster – (9min:19sec) – December 1, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses how the emergence of the Omicron variant impacts U.S. investment strategy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.



 

U.S. Equities – Setting The Tone For 2022 – November 24, 2021
 · Equities · 

The overall macro backdrop will become less favorable for the equity market in the year ahead.



 

Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns



 

Emerging Market Equities – Waiting For The China Bounce – November 23, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

This year’s powerful revival in global trade and overall demand usually would have been associated with strong EM stock performance



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Higher Nominal, But Lower Real Yields – November 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in underlying inflation in the major developed economies is broadening and will persist even after temporary supply-induced price hikes unwind. Emergency monetary conditions are not warranted.



 

Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Asset Allocation – The Fate Of The 60/40 Portfolio – November 18, 2021
Asset Allocation · 

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Roundtable – Round-Tripping From EM ex-China Back To China – (65min:05sec) – November 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Roundtable MRB’s emerging markets team, Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek, discussed the outlook for EM assets



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets



 

U.S. Equities – Will Rising Bond Yields Pummel Tech Stocks? – November 9, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. technology stocks and growth equities more generally have been enormous beneficiaries of financial repression and the low interest rate environment that has prevailed since the Great Financial Crisis.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets



 

China – The Rattle Of Regulatory Change Continues – November 4, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

2021 has been the year of regulatory change in China, starting with a forced deleveraging in the real estate sector, followed by a crackdown on very large internet-related stocks aimed at limiting monopolistic behavior, improving labor rights and protecting data privacy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period



 

Latam – Narrowing Window Of Opportunity – October 28, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The underwhelming relative performance of Latin American (Latam) financial assets will persist in light of ongoing political/economic policy uncertainty



 

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor & Semi Equipment Stocks: Risks To The Cycle Are Piling Up – October 27, 2021
 · Equities · 

After a huge run in the second half of 2020, the relative performance of U.S. semiconductor stocks has leveled off this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).



 

Equities – Global Equities: More Bang For The Buck Than Perceived? – October 22, 2021
Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.



 

Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.



 

Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue



 

Japan – An Underdog Story – October 19, 2021
 · Equities · Foreign Exchange · 

After a rocky welcome by the markets, newly-appointed PM Fumio Kishida is starting to enjoy positive public support.



 

U.S. Equities – Household Durable Stocks: Taking Profits – October 18, 2021
 · Equities · 

For much of 2020 and the early part of this year, robust housing market conditions have driven the strong outperformance of the U.S. household durables sub-group.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.



 

Equities – Global Earnings: Sectors To Watch – October 15, 2021
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.



 

U.S. Equity Sectors – U.S. Small-Cap Stocks: Another Leg Of Outperformance Ahead – October 8, 2021
Equities · 

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China – Policy Bandwidth Is Being Overwhelmed – October 7, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese policymakers were probably hoping to take their victory lap during last week’s national holidays, after reducing excess leverage and nipping a housing bubble in the bud.



 

Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Proving Their Resilience – September 30, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. bank stocks are enjoying a banner year of outperformance.



 

Webcast – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – (7min:40sec) – September 29, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani highlights some of the key takeaways from last week’s MRB Emerging Market Equities Report



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.



 

Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.



 

Emerging Market Equities – Take Some Profits In EM ex-China – September 23, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The overall backdrop for EM equities remains broadly constructive, given the robust trade cycle, solid domestic demand and continuing liquidity support in the world’s leading economies.



 

U.S. Equities – Metal & Mining Stocks: Buyer Beware – September 21, 2021
 · Equities · 

The relative performance of the U.S. metals & mining sub-group has weakened in recent months due to mounting concerns that the global economic recovery is losing steam.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.



 

Webcast – U.S. Industrials: Heeding The Message From Sluggish Relative Earnings – (9min:31sec) – September 15, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for the U.S. industrial sector and machinery stocks, which are one of its key sub-groups.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.



 

Equities – Upgrade Japan To Neutral – September 10, 2021
Equities · 

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China – Redistribution, Not Stimulus, Is The Opportunity – September 9, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Investors are in danger of misconstruing two current developments in China.



 

U.S. Equities – Recovery Delayed, Not Lost – September 8, 2021
 · Equities · 

While growth momentum is moderating, economic conditions remain consistent with above-trend U.S. growth for the balance of this year and 2022.



 

Webcast – Transitioning From Maximum Growth And Policy Thrust – (9min:37sec) – September 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the shifting macro and policy backdrop and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It Will Get Tougher From Here – September 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Two important shifts in the macro climate over the next 6-12 months point to lower investment returns and more painful corrections, which will challenge current trends in capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.



 

Equities – Japan Is Likely To Remain Out Of Favor Among Global Investors – August 27, 2021
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative



 

U.K. – Equities: Past Earnings Drags Are Fading – August 19, 2021
 · Equities · 

The poor share price of performance of U.K. stocks over the past two decades, and especially since the Great Recession, has been driven by many factors, several of which should abate as the global economic recovery progresses in the next few years.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade Ahead – August 13, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Sentiment remains upbeat in the major economies despite ongoing angst about the COVID-19 Delta variant.



 

U.S. Equities – Pharmaceutical Stocks: The Right Portfolio Prescription For A Less Healthy Equity Market – August 12, 2021
 · Equities · 

The spreading COVID-19 Delta variant, looming Fed bond tapering, and headline risks associated with corporate tax increases are potential sources of equity market volatility in the coming weeks and months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.



 

U.S. Equities – U.S. Growth Stocks: The Bar For Positive Surprises Is Very High – August 6, 2021
 · Equities · 

Peak earnings growth, easing bond yields, and anxieties about the economic outlook have put U.S. growth stocks back in favor.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.



 

Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
 · Themes · 

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China – Investor Fears Are Overdone – August 4, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Foreigners are not the dominant drivers of Chinese stocks, and their fears are overblown. There is a measurable “China discount” associated with the price of its financial assets relative to equivalents in the developed economies.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.



 

Equities – Global Earnings: Catch Up Or Stick With Mo? – July 30, 2021
Equities · 

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Euro Area – Equities: Sustainable Earnings Uptrend After A Lost Decade – July 27, 2021
 · Equities · 

Extrapolating the euro area earnings outlook based on last decade’s performance is misguided.



 

U.S. Equities – The Reflation Trade Is Not Over – July 23, 2021
 · Equities · 

The spread of COVID-19 variants and peak growth momentum have fueled anxiety about the global economic outlook, boosted government bonds, and spurred a rotation out of cyclical stocks and into secular growth plays.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Peak Growth, Not Peak Earnings – July 23, 2021
Equities · 

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Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.



 

Emerging Market Equities – EM Bank Earnings Turnaround Offers Key Support – July 15, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM earnings momentum is picking up, and broadening beyond the semiconductor sector.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.



 

Regional Equities – A Pause In The Pro-Cyclical Regional Rotation – July 8, 2021
 · Equities · 

The more cautious tone in equity markets in recent weeks should eventually give way to a return to pro-cyclical country and sector investor preferences in response to robust global growth.



 

China – Back To Normal – July 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

While investors in the U.S. suffer bouts of anxiety over the first mutterings of a possible thought that the Fed may consider setting a date for the start of policy normalization, Chinese policymakers have already barged through the gates along this path



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.



 

Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.



 

U.S. Equities – Energy Stocks: Stay Long For The Beta Trade – June 17, 2021
 · Equities · 

Energy has been the top-performing U.S. sector this year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return · 

The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Key Gaps Are Closing/Widening – June 11, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

While uber-dovish monetary policies will remain supportive of risk asset markets, the widening gaps between nominal GDP growth and core inflation versus policy rates are unsustainable.



 

Equities – The U.S. Will Bear The Burden Of A Global Minimum Tax – June 11, 2021
Equities · 

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Webcast – The Drivers Of Inflation Provide A Warning – (9min:49sec) – June 9, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar Phillip Colmar examines the forces that will drive consumer price inflation over the course of this cycle.



 

China – The Recovery Phase Is Ending – June 8, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The post-pandemic phase of China’s economic rebound has been exceptionally strong, and current data suggests it is already in the early stages of ending.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.



 

Equities – Global Equities: What Does History Tell Us? – June 4, 2021
Equities · 

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Theme – An Inflation Problem Is Brewing – June 3, 2021
 · Themes · 

The Fed and other major central banks are determined to lag well behind any upturn in consumer price inflation, and fixed-income investors are reluctant to revise up their depressed longer-term views on economic growth and inflation.



 

U.S. Equities – The Value Resurgence Has Room To Run – June 1, 2021
 · Equities · 

The rotation from growth to value has been one of the outstanding features of the U.S. equity market rally over the past 7 months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.



 

Webinar – MRB’s Big Picture Themes – (73min:46sec) – May 12, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Warren Smith, examined the major macro and investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.



 

U.S. Equities – Consumer Finance Stocks: More Tailwinds To Play Out – May 12, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. consumer finance stocks have strongly outperformed year-to-date.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.



 

Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – As Good As It Gets – May 7, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The aggressive monetary and fiscal support of the past year helped bring forward and fortify the robust rebound in capital markets relative to underlying economic growth conditions.



 

China – Reawakened Consumers Underpin Growth – May 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China is growing at a robust, above-trend growth, with concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic slipping into the distant past.



 

U.S. Equities – Stay Selectively Focused On Value – May 3, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. first-quarter earnings reports have been overwhelmingly positive.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Durable Trend, Not A One-Off – April 30, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Led by the U.S., the global economic recovery continues to strengthen on the back of increased vaccinations.



 

Equities – A Weaker Dollar Will Eventually Favor Unhedged Non-U.S. Equities – April 30, 2021
Equities · 

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Emerging Market Equities – When Global Trade Pops, EM Stocks Sizzle – April 29, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Recent EM underperformance is mostly attributable to the renewed vigor of stocks in the U.S., along with some idiosyncratic risks that have impacted mega-cap Chinese stocks.



 

Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.



 

Equities – An ISM® Warning Sign For Stocks – April 27, 2021
 · Equities · 

While the macro and policy backdrop remains very equity friendly, an inevitable moderation in the ISM manufacturing index in the coming months is likely to temper investor risk appetite.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.



 

Equity Sectors – U.S. Bank Stocks: Reserve Releases Are A Bridge To Better Fundamentals – April 23, 2021
Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.



 

Brazil – Upside For Stocks, But… – April 22, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

In stark contrast with the grim headlines, Brazil’s 12-month forward earnings growth has been on a tear in recent months.



 

Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.



 

Equities – Euro Area: In Search Of Earnings Power – April 16, 2021
Equities · 

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Webcast – Our Differentiated Views On U.S. Consumer Discretionary And Industrial Stocks – (12min:06sec) – April 14, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the 6-12 month prospects for the U.S. consumer discretionary and industrial sectors.



 

U.S. Equities – Industrial Stocks: Will Earnings Deliver? – April 13, 2021
 · Equities · 

After lagging in December and January, U.S. industrial stocks have resumed outperforming in recent months.



 

Equities – Earnings Prospects Favor Further Global Value Outperformance – April 13, 2021
 · Equities · 

The rich valuations of growth stocks and the increasingly positive outlook for economic growth have recently helped boost investor interest in value stocks as a potential catch-up play.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.



 

Equities – Global Equity Sectors: Sector Earnings Shifts Underway – April 9, 2021
Equities · 

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China – Capital Markets With Chinese Characteristics – April 8, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s economic momentum remains strong and is broadening, and offers powerful support for a solid global expansion in output and trade.



 

Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.



 

U.S. Equities – Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Not As Leveraged To Re-Opening As You Might Think – March 31, 2021
 · Equities · 

The combination of historically huge fiscal transfers, a high savings rate, and healthy household balance sheets has left the U.S. consumer primed to spend once the economy fully re-opens.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.



 

Roundtable – EM Investing: Different Regions, Different Assets – (68min:21sec) – March 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

We are generally constructive about the prospects for emerging market outperformance in the year ahead. Equities should outperform their DM counterparts



 

Regional Equities – The Window For Regional Rotation Opens Wider – March 25, 2021
 · Equities · 

The massive U.S. fiscal stimulus will provide a major boost to the global economy and corporate earnings in markets and sectors highly geared to global trade.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Fed Is Losing Its Grip On The Treasury Market – March 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global monetary and fiscal stimulus is so massive that, when combined with vaccinations, it will be hard for economic growth to disappoint.



 

U.S. Equities – Air Freight & Logistics Stocks: Climbing Back On Board – March 19, 2021
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Near-Term Speed Bumps In The Re-Opening Trade – March 19, 2021
Equities · 

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Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Self-Limiting – March 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month basis, but cautious on risk assets in the short-term, given the backdrop of overbought/overheated technical conditions and rising bond yields.



 

U.S. Equities – Hotel, Restaurant & Leisure Stocks: Priced For Normalcy – March 11, 2021
 · Equities · 

No group of stocks is more emblematic of the re-opening trade than the U.S. hotels, restaurants & leisure sub-group.



 

Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.



 

China – Yuan Bonds Outperform As Policy “Normalizes” – March 3, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Chinese economy doesn’t need stimulus, and, in fact, fiscal retrenchment will gather pace this year.



 

U.S. Equities – What The Bond Market Rout Means For U.S. Equities – March 2, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. equity prices have been volatile of late due to a rapid rise in bond yields as government fixed-income markets have begun to discount stronger-than-expected economic growth and higher inflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.



 

U.S. Equity Sectors – Tech Stocks: Gathering Headwinds – February 26, 2021
Equities · 

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Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.



 

Asset Allocation – Which Inflation Hedges Are Appealing? – February 25, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

We have regularly noted that there is scope for medium term upside in the years ahead.



 

Equities – Canada: Earnings Beta Still Tied To Resources – February 24, 2021
 · Equities · 

Canadian stocks will benefit from an improving domestic and global economy over the next 6-12 months, but we expect them to continue to underperform their global peers during the period.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing An Anchor – February 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in Treasury yields has spread abroad and has increased the odds of a correction in overbought risk asset markets.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Webcast – Asian Outperformance Worsens EM’s Concentration Problem – (10min:08sec) – February 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB Strategist Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the appropriate positioning for emerging markets within a global equity portfolio



 

U.S. Equities – Small Caps: In Need Of A Pause That Refreshes – February 16, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. small-cap stocks have been on a tear since early-November when positive vaccine news began to trickle out.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.



 

Emerging Market Equities – Asian Outperformance Will Drive EM To Irrelevance – February 11, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

“Be careful what you wish for” is the Aesop’s fable that applies to long-suffering EM equity investors, who have been waiting a decade for a sustained period of outperformance.



 

Emerging Market Equities – The Implications Of EM Stock Concentration – February 11, 2021
Emerging Markets · Equities · 

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Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – February 5, 2021
Absolute Return · 

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U.S. Equities – Road & Rail Stocks: Are They Worth The Ride? – February 4, 2021
 · Equities · 

After rebounding from their late-March 2020 lows, the relative share prices of the road & rail sub-group have stalled in recent months, along with the broader transportation index.



 

China – Chinese Divergences – February 2, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese economic momentum is far above its trend growth rate, while its stock market booms, government bond yields and the currency edge higher and a central bank advisor dropped hints of policy normalization.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Free Money Forever – January 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity market risks have recently eased on the fundamental side, as Treasury yields have calmed, but worsened on the technical side, as speculative froth has erupted. A pause in augmenting favored positions is still warranted.



 

Roundtable – U.S. Equity Sectors With Salvatore Ruscitti – January 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Roundtable, MRB’s U.S. Equity Strategist, Salvatore Ruscitti, discusses the outlook for the U.S. equity market and highlights our recommended sector positioning.



 

Global Equities – The Risks And Challenges Of Equity Market Concentration – January 28, 2021
 · Equities · 

The dominance of the U.S. equity market complicates regional and sectoral equity allocations and results in historically high concentration of portfolios benchmarked to the global index.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.



 

U.S. Equities – U.S. Banks: Taking Stock Of The Earnings Drivers – January 21, 2021
 · Equities · 

U.S. bank stocks have soared in recent months, boosted by positive vaccine news, a steepening yield curve, and the Fed’s decision in December to reverse the ban on share buybacks for the largest banking institutions.



 

U.S. Equities – Long-Term Tailwinds Will Fade – January 20, 2021
 · Equities · 

Several of the tailwinds that powered equities during the last economic expansion and over the past four decades are set to fade in the years ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent stall in U.S. employment trends underscores the need for rapid vaccinations to clear the path to a self-reinforcing global economic expansion.



 

Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.



 

China – Climbing The Wall Of Worry – January 6, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

China continues to experience strong economic momentum, despite a stutter in December’s PMI surveys (which nevertheless remain firmly in expansionary territory).



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – 2021 Outlook: From Rally To Rotation – December 23, 2020
 · Equities · 

The expected widespread rollout of COVID-19 vaccines has boosted the outlook for the global economy.



 

Regional Equities – Outlook 2021: Piecemeal Rotation – December 22, 2020
 · Equities · 

The improving economic outlook is positive for equites overall, although it is already well-discounted in share prices (most notably in the U.S.).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Play The Cycle, Not The Countertrend Moves – December 18, 2020
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run economic disappointments in the U.S. and Europe could trip up equity markets and trigger a bounce in the U.S. dollar.



 

Equities – U.K.: Any Brexit Deal Will Help – December 18, 2020
Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).



 

Equities – Global Equities: Excessive Long-Term Earnings Optimism – December 11, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.



 

U.S. Equities – Revisiting Two Ideas – December 8, 2020
 · Equities · 

Our strategy this year has been to take a barbell approach to positioning U.S. equity portfolios, with selective bets on cyclicals and defensives/growth equities.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.



 

China – What Could Interrupt China’s Rebound in 2021? – December 3, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese economic momentum is by far the strongest in the world, which supports strong global appetite for Chinese financial assets.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.



 

Equity Sectors – U.S. Industrials: Earnings Optimism Is Unlikely To Be Validated – November 27, 2020
Equities · 

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Equities – Sustained Global Trade Is The Key To Unlocking Euro Area Earnings – November 27, 2020
Equities · 

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Equities – Global Equities: The Great Rotation (Part 1) – November 27, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Is It Time For Financial Stocks? – (11min:28sec) – November 25, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global financial stocks following the release of the MRB Research Highlight:
“Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership” on November 18, 2020.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Worse Now, Better Later – November 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are constructive on a 1-2 year horizon based on positive medical developments and reduced odds of a disruptive U.S. political backdrop in 2021.



 

Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.



 

Global Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Look For U.S. And EM Leadership – November 18, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Global financial stocks have enjoyed a solid bounce in recent weeks, breaking out of a trading range that had prevailed from June through October.



 

U.S. Equities – Election Post-Mortem: The Implications For U.S. Equity Sectors – November 17, 2020
 · Equities · 

The U.S. election will not be certified by the Electoral College until mid-December, but Joe Biden is almost certain to be the next president.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving Another Notch – November 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The pandemic is slowing the rebound in economic activity outside of Asia. However, the 6-12 month outlook has improved because U.S. political uncertainty has diminished and there are higher odds of successful COVID-19 remedies.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.



 

Emerging Market Equities – 2021 Outlook: EM Growth Sizzles, Can Earnings Pop? – November 11, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The outlook for EM equities in 2021 hinges on their relative earnings outlook, which in turn will be determined by the prospects for a broad-based and reasonably synchronized global economic recovery.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.



 

Election 2020 – How Will The U.S. Election Shape Financial Sector Regulation? – November 2, 2020
 · Equities · 

Financial sector policy proposals have largely been absent from this year’s election campaign as debates have mostly focused on issues such as the pandemic



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No More One-Way Discounting – October 30, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Short-term risks are elevated for equities, although a clear U.S. election result next week would ease this source of tension.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.



 

Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – One Out Of Three Is Not Great – October 23, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Chinese economy is in solid shape. The U.S. and Europe are not. The lack of full mobility will continue to hamper the global economic recovery; a self-reinforcing expansion awaits a medical breakthrough.



 

Webinar – How Will The U.S. Election Impact Equity Sectors? – (61min:33sec) – October 21, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The outcome of the U.S. election will play an important role in shaping policy in the coming years, thereby influencing the investment landscape.



 

Theme – Secular Equity Bull Market: Is There More Upside? – October 21, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

Most investment strategy is focused on the cyclical trend in asset prices (i.e. the swings within a single economic or business cycle).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Long Road Ahead – October 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There remains a race between a medical breakthrough and more normal economic and social mobility, versus mounting permanent layoffs.



 

Equities – Global Bank Stocks: Cheap, But… – October 9, 2020
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Trump Vs Biden: Where The Presidential Nominees Stand On Energy Policy – October 8, 2020
 · Equities · 

The upcoming election presents a stark contrast between Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s promise to overhaul the U.S. energy system to urgently deal with climate change



 

China – Robust Recovery Offers Scant Global Comfort – October 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

The pace of China’s torrid post-Q1 economic rebound will ease off, but solid growth will be sustained thanks primarily to the robust service sector.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.



 

Webcast – Equity Rotation: Stronger Global Growth Is The Necessary Condition – (10min:12sec) – September 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for performance across the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning in a global equity portfolio.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.



 

Regional Equities – Rotation Drivers Are Still Not In Place – September 24, 2020
 · Equities · 

A global economic recovery increases the potential for a rotation away from richly-valued U.S. stocks, but the growth outlook is not yet sufficiently robust to warrant such a shift.



 

Webcast – The Case For EM In A Global Equity Portfolio – (7min:46sec) – September 23, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for emerging markets in a global equity portfolio. 



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.



 

Equities – U.K.: If It’s Not One Thing, It’s Another – September 18, 2020
Equities · 

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Policy – U.S. Economy: The Danger Of Premature Austerity – September 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The aftermath of the Great Recession highlights the dangers of enacting premature fiscal austerity.



 

Webcast – Growth Vs Value: An Unsustainable Divergence – (11min:26sec) – September 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. style performance and how to navigate the extreme divergence in the performance between growth and value stocks.



 

Emerging Markets Equities – Still Searching For Positive Earnings Signals – September 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Tuesday’s report maintained our neutral call on EM within a global equity portfolio even though we would be more inclined to upgrade our overall positioning on EM stocks than to downgrade it in the months ahead.



 

U.S. Equities – Will Gravity Finally Drag Down Growth Stocks? – September 14, 2020
 · Equities · 

The recent sell-off in the tech-heavy NASDAQ has rekindled optimism about a broadening of U.S. stock market leadership away from growth stocks and towards laggard value sectors.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Equities – Japanese Equities: Uncertain Earnings Upside In A Recovery – September 11, 2020
Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.



 

Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

China – Torrid Recovery Will Ease Off – September 8, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

China’s growth trajectory can be broken down into two components.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.



 

U.S. Equities – Trump Vs Biden: Who’s Better For U.S. Tech Stocks? – August 31, 2020
 · Equities · 

The occupant of the White House over the next four years will have an influence on the outlook for the tech industry



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.



 

Equities – Global Sector Composition Is Driving Relative Performance – August 28, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – The Investment Cycle Is Reliant On The Reflationary Bridge – (13min:51sec) – August 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar talks about our latest thematic research on the reflationary bridge, the Stylized Investment Cycle, and the potential for a rotation away from U.S. leadership.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Dollar Doldrums – August 21, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equities are at near-run risk as they have front-run a positive economic outcome. Regional rebounds in COVID-19 infections remain both a source of economic drag and ongoing uncertainty about the future.



 

Equities – Canadian Equities: A Tale Of Two Trends – August 21, 2020
Equities · 

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Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle: Did Policymakers Avoid A Final Flush? – August 20, 2020
 · Themes · 

MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks as it provides a starting point when building a multi-year roadmap, and helps investors look for major inflection points.



 

Webcast – Selecting Euro Area Cyclical Sectors – (9min:17sec) – August 19, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for key euro area cyclical equity sectors. He expects cyclical sectors to outperform the euro area equity benchmark on a 6-12 month horizon, although selectivity is appropriate.



 

Euro Area Equities – Cyclical Earnings Recovery Opportunities – August 18, 2020
 · Equities · Research Reports · 

Euro area traditional cyclical sectors, including consumer discretionary, industrials and materials should benefit from absolute and relative earnings upside over the next 6-18 months as the global economy recovers.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care Stocks: What’s At Stake In The Election? – August 13, 2020
 · Equities · 

Health care is one of the most exposed sectors to the outcome of the November presidential election.



 

Theme – A Reflationary Bridge To Cover The Deep Valley – August 13, 2020
 · Themes · 

Global policymakers are forcefully attempting to offset the dramatic COVID-19 shock to their economies.



 

Webinar – U.S. 2020 Elections: A Lot Is At Stake For Markets – (72min:12sec) – August 12, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Elections always matter and this year’s will be no exception, as the outcome will have a major impact on the U.S. economy and capital markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.



 

Equities – Swedish Equities: Trade Will Deliver Earnings Beta – July 31, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.



 

Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
 · Themes · 

Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.



 

U.S. Equities – Follow The Profit Cycle – July 23, 2020
 · Equities · 

The uncertainties unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic pose a significant challenge for investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Good News, But Stay Patient – July 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are short-term cautious on equities as a period of disappointing economic data looms.



 

Emerging Markets Equities – Buying Growth, Or A Bubble, In China – July 15, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Investors in EM equities rarely face easy choices and the current circumstances offer a particularly challenging mix of risks and opportunities.



 

Economy – U.S. Credit Risks And The Economy – July 14, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Strong policy support has dramatically reduced the risk of prolonged U.S. economic weakness, but there are still pockets of vulnerability.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.



 

U.S. Equities – Industrial Stocks: Tempering Our Negativity – July 9, 2020
 · Equities · 

U.S. industrial stocks have mostly lagged since late 2016, although they have recently bounced from their relative lows.



 

Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.



 

Equities – U.S. Equities: Revenues Will Tell The Story – June 26, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Catalyst For A Regional Equity Rotation Is Not Yet In View – (9min:51sec) – June 24, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for the major equity markets and MRB’s recommended positioning on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It All Comes Down To Employment And Job Security – June 19, 2020
 · Uncategorized · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A correction or churning phase for equities is probable in the near term, given the sharp rebound in prices this spring and likelihood that corporate profits will not be able to return to pre-crisis levels anytime soon.



 

Webcast – Will Earnings Validate The Rally? – (9min:50sec) – June 17, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for the U.S. equity market and the timeline for a normalization of earnings.



 

U.S. Equities – Valuations Demand A V-Shaped Recovery In Earnings – June 16, 2020
 · Equities · 

The huge rally in the equity market from the late-March lows has driven a wide gap between share prices and underlying fundamentals.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.



 

Equities – Euro Area: Value Opportunity Depends On Earnings Prospects – June 12, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

LatAm – Sifting Through The COVID-19 Rubble – June 10, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

Local currency-denominated bonds are the best LatAm play, and should be held at overweight within an EM local-currency bond portfolio.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.



 

Webcast – Canada: Will The Bubble Finally Burst? – (13min:26sec) – June 2, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest outlook on the Canadian economy and asset markets, with a focus on the potential for a bursting of the housing and credit bubbles.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Broadening Equity Rally, For Now – May 29, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The equity rally has spread beyond U.S. large-caps into lagging bourses and sectors.



 

Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.



 

Webcast – Growth Vs Value: A Little Bit Of Both – (10min:18sec) – May 28, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti weighs in on the growth vs value debate and discusses how investors should position U.S. equity portfolios in the context of the style cycle.



 

Canada – On Thin Ice As It Heats Up – May 27, 2020
Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report updates our outlook on the Canadian economy and related investment strategy in response to the pandemic and related halt in activity.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long Road Back – May 22, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

More regions are restarting their economies. This good news is offset by the setbacks and tepid improvement witnessed in early-restarting Asian economies, and the still worrisome trend in new COVID-19 cases in some restarters.



 

U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: No Longer A Safe Haven – May 21, 2020
 · Equities · 

The clouds hanging over the U.S. real estate sector have darkened since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Late or Too Soon? – May 15, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Somewhat disappointing virus and economic trends in the early-restarting Asian countries, plus renewed protectionist threats, underscore that equities are heading into a risky period.



 

Equities – Looks Can Be Deceiving – May 15, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
 · Themes · 

This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Optimism? – May 8, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Asia’s limping economic restart warns that improving expectations for Europe and the U.S. are not yet warranted.



 

U.S. Equities – Navigating The Growth Vs Value Style Imbalance – May 7, 2020
 · Equities · 

Growth stocks have continued to exert market leadership this year amid the COVID pandemic.



 

Equities – Global Earnings: A Long Road To Recovery – May 5, 2020
 · Equities · 

Global equities have recovered about half of their earlier losses in response to the slowing growth of COVID-19 cases, aggressive policy support and the gradual re-opening of the global economy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.



 

Saudi Arabia – 2020: A Replay Of Korea 1997? – April 29, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

In the EM world, the aggregate debt position of oil exporters was already far inferior to that of the broader universe before this year’s coronavirus-related collapse in oil demand.



 

U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: An Overdue Reality Check – April 27, 2020
 · Equities · 

U.S. technology stocks have been relatively resilient amid the COVID-19 health crisis and economic shutdown.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.



 

Equities – Across-The-Board U.S. Sector Outperformance – April 24, 2020
Equities · 

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Theme – The Great Halt Of 2020 – April 23, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report compares the current economic fallout with the previous and concludes that another Great Recession is very unlikely.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.



 

U.S. Equities – A COVID-19 Stress Test For U.S. Bank Stocks – April 14, 2020
 · Equities · 

The economic disruptions from the COVID-19 outbreak will weigh heavily on U.S. bank earnings this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Are We There Yet? – April 9, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Early-responding countries are trying to re-start economic activity, but have encountered bumps.



 

Equities – Rebound Sustainability Guide For Global Equities – April 9, 2020
Equities · 

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EM Equities – North Asia To The Fore Again – April 8, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Given the sudden stop nature of the global recession, and its potentially short-lived character (being driven by a pandemic response rather than economic factors)



 

Webcast – Necessary But Not Yet Sufficient – (11min:29sec) – April 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins assesses COVID-19 trends and the potential economic impacts, and looks at key drivers of equities and credit for overall investment strategy and asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.



 

Equities – A Century Of Bear Bottoms – April 2, 2020
 · Equities · Themes · 

Every equity bear market has unique attributes, including the root cause of the earnings downturn and the required policy response.



 

U.S. Equities – The Virus Makes The Timeline – March 31, 2020
 · Equities · 

U.S. stock prices have recently bounced from their lows. To a large degree, the performance of the equity market going forward will be a function of sentiment towards the 2021 earnings outlook



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Will Take Time – March 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity markets are overextended and could bounce a bit further, but face a bumpy period of even grimmer virus news and poor economic statistics in the next 1-2 months in Europe and the U.S.



 

Regional Equities – The Best Offense Is A Good Defense – March 26, 2020
 · Equities · 

The uncertainty associated with COVID-19 and the countermeasures being taken to ameliorate it justify a conservative regional equity allocation in the near term.



 

U.S. Equities – S&P 500 Earnings: Assessing The Impact Of COVID-19 – March 23, 2020
 · Equities · 

Assessing equity valuations during these uncertain times is challenging given the lack of earnings visibility.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Moving To “All-In” – March 20, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Deeply oversold conditions and massive policy reflation can help to calm the panic.



 

Global Equities – Mr. Market Goes To Extremes – March 20, 2020
Equities · 

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Theme – Lessons From Previous Equity Bear Markets – March 19, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The speed of the current selloff in equities, credit and oil has been remarkable, with a massive wave of selling pressure as investors rushed for the exits or to buy portfolio insurance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.



 

Equities – History Says Further Near-Term Risk, Longer-Term Reward – March 13, 2020
Equities · 

https://www.mrbpartners.com/build-mrbp/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Equities_History-Says-Further-Near-Term-Risk-Longer-Term-Reward-March-13-2020.pdf



 

Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.



 

TradeBook Updates – March 6, 2020
Absolute Return · Emerging Markets · 

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Webcast – COVID-19 And Investment Strategy (10min:09sec) – March 4, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides our latest take on COVID-19 and how it will impact investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race Is On – February 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Just as the COVID-19 crisis has crested in China, it has now gone global, and will hit all countries to varying degrees.



 

U.S. Equity Sectors – Navigating The Sell-Off – February 28, 2020
Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Will COVID-19 End The Cycle? – February 27, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The COVID-19 threat arrived at a point when equity markets had an air pocket after materially rerating over the past year and were overly optimistic about the global growth outlook.



 

LatAm – Bonds And Rates Will Outperform – February 27, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · 

LatAm’s investment landscape beyond the short term will be characterized by a modest recovery in global trade and supportive global liquidity, all of which are positive for financial assets in the region.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (19min:00sec) – February 26, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

. In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month, including the virus.



 

Euro Area – Gauging Euro Area Recession Risks – February 25, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · 

Today’s report introduces the MRB Euro Area Recession Checklist Indicator (RCI), which is an economy-wide measure (incorporating 26 variables grouped into six broad categories) that is constructed based on the framework of the MRB U.S. Recession Checklist Indicator.



 

Japan – Consumption Tax Hangover – February 25, 2020
 · Equities · 

The sharp decline in GDP in Q4 overstates the weakness of the Japanese economy, with the impact of the October consumption tax poised to gradually fade.



 

Emerging Markets – Policy Support Reinforces The China Rotation Play- February 21, 2020
Emerging Markets · 

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Equities – Japanese Equities: Performance Depends On Exports – February 21, 2020
Equities · 

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Webcast – Buybacks Are An Important Factor In The U.S. ROE Advantage (11min:53sec) – February 19, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins takes a close look at return on equity in the major markets over the past decade and highlights some important drivers and considerations for valuations.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.



 

Equities – Global Return On Equity: Looks Can Be Deceiving – February 13, 2020
 · Equities · 

The U.S.’ 5% ROE advantage versus the global ex-U.S. benchmark certainly helps underpin the premium valuation on U.S. stocks, which in the case of the price-to-book ratio exceeds 100%.



 

U.S. Equities – Will The Equity Market Catch The Flu? – February 12, 2020
 · Equities · 

After an initial modest drawdown, the U.S. equity market has more than recouped all its earlier losses from coronavirus fears.



 

Webcast – EM Equities: Still In Choppy Waters (7min:45sec) – February 12, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses positioning on EM stocks in a global equity portfolio.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part V): Growth Stocks – February 11, 2020
 · Equities · Themes · 

This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias, and focuses on growth stocks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.



 

Equities – Canadian Equities: Cold Carbon Comfort – February 7, 2020
Equities · 

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Emerging Market Equities – Buy On (Viral) Dips, But Only Selectively – February 6, 2020
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

For the next several weeks, global investors may be mesmerized by the potential hit to global growth associated with China’s coronavirus epidemic.



 

Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.



 

U.S. Equities – Household Durable Stocks: A Pause Followed By More Relative Upside – January 31, 2020
 · Equities · 

U.S. household durable stocks enjoyed a comeback last year, with the sub-group outperforming the broad equity market in 2019.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Handicaps For Small-Cap Stocks – January 24, 2020
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: No Room For Disappointment – January 22, 2020
 · Equities · 

U.S. IT stocks have been on a tear in the past year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Sticking With The Winners – January 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity is slowly firming. Meanwhile, central banks are on indefinite hold.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part IV): Regional Housing & Related Equities – January 17, 2020
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias. We focus on… Continue



 

Equities – Euro Area Financial Stocks: German Fiscal Profligacy Needed – January 17, 2020
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – No Bust, No Boom – January 10, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).



 

U.S. Equities – Looking Back At 2019 and Ahead To 2020 – January 9, 2020
 · Equities · 

The U.S. equity market has started the year on a choppy note, with geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran whipsawing stocks prices in recent days.



 

Webcast – Geopolitically-Driven Digestion Phase (8min:20sec) – January 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for capital markets in 2020, including the implications of the latest geopolitical crisis on investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.



 

Webcast – U.S. Equity Market Outlook: How To Position In 2020 (19min:04sec) – January 3, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the 2020 outlook for the U.S. equity market and how to position portfolios for the year ahead.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Great Year And A Great Decade: Can It Continue? – December 20, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to recommend a mildly pro-growth investment stance across most asset classes.



 

Regional Equities – 2020 Outlook: Muted Earnings Upside – December 19, 2019
 · Equities · 

An anticipated moderate rebound in global manufacturing and trade activity will not be enough for global ex-U.S. relative earnings to reverse the underlying downtrend versus the U.S. that has prevailed for most of this expansion.



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – 2020 Outlook: Earnings Growth Will Still Be King – December 18, 2019
 · Equities · 

Today’s report discusses how to position U.S. equity portfolios for the year ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Upbeat Global Hiring Plans: The Business Cycle Rolls On – December 13, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Large global companies remain upbeat on hiring plans despite the weakness in trade and manufacturing (excluding the U.K.).



 

Equities – Euro Area Equities Still Face A Challenging Earnings Outlook – December 13, 2019
Equities · 

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Emerging Markets Equities – 2020 EM Equity Outlook: “Another 2012”? – December 12, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Economic momentum in the EM world has been improving, and against a backdrop of softer global data is now superior to DM momentum for the first time since 2012.



 

Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Slow And Modest Upturn Lies Ahead – December 6, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

While global growth should gradually firm next year, it will be insufficient to warrant a decisive risk-on investment posture.



 

U.S. Equities – Retailing Stocks: A Tale Of Winners And Losers – December 4, 2019
 · Equities · 

Translating the positive backdrop for consumer spending into an investment stance on retailing sub-groups remains very challenging given the dichotomy between the winners and losers in the industry.



 

Webcast – EM Assets: 2020 Outlook (7min:45sec) – December 4, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses that EM equities will be supported by a combination of some North Asian earnings upside along with a couple of tactical themes in China and Brazil.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Consolidation Before More Upside? – November 29, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The resilience of the consumer sector bodes well for the U.S. economic outlook.



 

Equities – Too Soon To Bet On Sustained Japanese Leadership – November 29, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – Dividends For The Long Run (8min:24sec) – November 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins examines global dividends and their potential contribution to equity returns in the years ahead.



 

Equities – The Lure Of Dividends – November 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

Current dividend yields on equities are compelling compared with the extraordinarily low yields available on long-term government bonds.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Validation – November 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There are tentative signs of a trough in manufacturing activity, but follow-through will be critical to sustain the recent breakout in equities and the global stock/bond ratio.



 

Equities – U.K. Equities: A Brexit Buy? – November 22, 2019
Equities · 

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Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.



 

U.S. Equities – Stocks Go All-In On A Trade Deal – November 18, 2019
 · Equities · 

U.S. equity prices have made new highs in the past month, with reduced recession fears and optimism about an easing of U.S./China trade tensions driving the advance



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – FOMO Versus A Challenging Earnings Outlook – November 15, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity should gradually improve in the coming year, but much strongergrowth is highly unlikely.



 

U.S. Equity Sectors – Why A U.S. Value Stock Resurgence Is Unlikely – November 15, 2019
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Worries Recede Further – November 8, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Stability in manufacturing PMI surveys and the recent easing in trade tensions have spurred higher equity prices and bond yields.



 

Equities – Global Equities: In The End, It Is All About Earnings – November 8, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Cyclical Vs Defensive Tech: Where We Stand – November 7, 2019
 · Equities · 

In recent months, market participants have rotated into the more cyclical components of the technology sector such as semiconductors and hardware equipment manufacturers from the more defensive software sub-group.



 

Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – No Recession, But Not Much Growth Ahead – November 1, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

We expect the economic expansion to continue, but there is little basis for concluding a robust rebound in activity and profits looms over the next year that would justify a decidedly pro-growth investment posture.



 

South Africa – Rand Bonds Will Shine, Despite Downgrade Worries – October 31, 2019
Emerging Markets · 

There’s been no shortage of negative headlines about Eskom’s bailout, its impact on South Africa’s public debt sustainability, and the potential downgrade to sub-investment-grade status.



 

Webcast – U.S. Bank Stocks On The Move (8min:51sec) – October 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti assesses the outlook for U.S. bank stocks. Key highlights include:



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks Awaken From Their Slumber – October 29, 2019
 · Equities · 

U.S. bank stocks have rebounded of late, with share prices breaking out of their recent range in absolute terms and relative performance reversing the downtrend in place since early-2018.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Turn In Manufacturing – October 25, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Non-U.S. equities have perked up, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing activity will keep a lid on equity prices and bond yields.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.



 

Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.



 

Webcast – Still Scope For Another Upturn In The Global Earnings Cycle (11min:28sec) – October 23, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the earnings cycle across major markets, its key drivers, and the implications for equity prices.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Relief, But Risks Remain – October 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global trade and manufacturing indicators are still generally weak, and the protectionist backdrop will continue to hold back the global economy.



 

U.S. Equities – A Reality Check For 2020 U.S. Earnings – October 16, 2019
 · Equities · 

Third-quarter earnings season kicks off in earnest this week. Our report offers a preview of what to expect and what trends to watch.



 

Global Equities – An Old, But Not Fully Mature Earnings Cycle – October 15, 2019
 · Asset Class Reports · Equities · 

The global earnings upcycle is advanced, but should continue in the sluggish growth environment we anticipate in the year ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bending, But Not Yet Breaking – October 11, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Trade policies and heightened domestic economic tensions continue to erode global economic sentiment, although not yet by enough to undermine the expansion.



 

Equity Sectors – U.S. Health Care Stocks: Un-Warren-ted Panic – October 11, 2019
Equities · 

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Emerging Markets Equities – The Tech Tide Turns, Will The Rest Follow? – October 10, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The rule of thumb for EM allocations in a global equity portfolio has been to look to global trade momentum as the key strategy signal. The current cycle is unique in this regard.



 

Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.



 

Canada – On Borrowed Time – October 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The increasing imbalances and building vulnerabilities of the Canadian economy have been a regular theme in our research since the commodity Supercycle crested in 2013.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.



 

U.S. Equities – Telecom Stocks: Cheap Valuations, But Relative Earnings Lack An Impending Catalyst – October 4, 2019
 · Equities · 

U.S. telecom stocks have halted their long-running relative decline in the past year as falling bond yields have increased the allure of the sub-group’s relatively high dividend yield.



 

Webcast – China Recovers From Soft Patch, India’s Decline Accelerates (6min:40sec) – October 2, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani examines the evidence for China’s rebound from a soft spot in its manufacturing economy, along with the deterioration of India’s cyclical growth conditions.



 

U.S. Equities – Don’t Chase The Value Rotation – September 27, 2019
 · Equities · 

Value stocks have recently rebounded, with the MSCI USA Value Index outperforming its growth counterpart by nearly 300 bps month-to-date.



 

Regional Equities – Hewing Close To Home – September 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

Only selective deviations from regional benchmark weightings have a favorable risk-reward profile in a global equity portfolio given the policy and economic backdrop.



 

China – Chinese Economic Momentum Softens And Stocks Rally (As Usual) – September 25, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese domestic-listed stocks are rallying while economic momentum hits another soft patch.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Absorbing Another Body Blow – September 20, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Better-than-expected U.S. growth and an upward creep in core inflation herald a pause in Fed easing.



 

Equity Sectors – Green Shoots Of A Value Resurgence, Or Just Another Oversold Bounce? – September 20, 2019
Equities · 

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Equities – Global Equities: Key Benchmarks To Monitor – September 20, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Tech Capex: Up In The Clouds? – September 17, 2019
 · Equities · 

The tech sector has drawn increased scrutiny of late given the poorly performing IPOs of a few unicorn companies, which have exposed the unprofitable business models of these firms.



 

Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Business Cycle Remains Resilient – September 13, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global hiring plans have stayed solid despite the downturn in manufacturing and trade, and service sector PMI surveys remain positive.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Third Time Lucky, Or The End Of The Cycle? – August 30, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investors should refrain from aggressive positioning on the basis of expected trade talk outcomes given the difficulty of forecasting President Trump/China’s next moves.



 

Equities – Euro Area Equities: Dividend Opportunities – August 30, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. Sector Strategy – Stuck In “No Man’s Land” – August 29, 2019
 · Equities · 

The seesawing in trade tensions between the U.S. and China has kept equities on a rollercoaster ride in recent months.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Is Trump Blinking? – August 23, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

President Trump appears to have heard the warning that his trade policy risks undermining his re-election prospects.



 

U.S. Equities – What Health Care Stocks Have That Other Defensive Sectors Lack – August 20, 2019
 · Equities · 

Concerns about disruptive policy changes and headline risk in the lead-up to the 2020 presidential election have pressured the relative performance of the health care sector this year



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fearing Fear – August 16, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Rising protectionism remains the main global economic threat.



 

Equities – Global Equities: The Trouble With Small Caps – August 16, 2019
Equities · 

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China – Data Solid, Market Narratives Crumble – August 15, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Market narratives about China’s economy are far more pessimistic than the actual data, amplifying a negative feedback loop that stokes investor anxieties about global growth.



 

Webcast – August Storms (9min:14sec) – August 14, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast Salvatore Ruscitti discusses recent trade and geopolitical events and their implications for the U.S. equity market outlook and portfolio strategy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.



 

Equities – Global Financial Stocks: Collateral Damage From The Trade War – August 9, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – At The Edge Of A Cliff? – August 8, 2019
 · Equities · 

Equities have sold off sharply in the past week as the U.S. and China have ratcheted up pressure on each other in their deepening trade dispute.



 

Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).



 

U.S. Equities – Industrials: Global Dark Clouds Take Their Toll – August 1, 2019
 · Equities · 

Recent earnings reports from U.S. industrial companies have indicated that trade uncertainties and sluggish global economic growth have begun to more meaningfully weigh on the sector’s underlying fundamentals.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still Lacking A Catalyst – July 26, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global manufacturing weakness is persisting, which is dampening economic sentiment and investor risk-taking.



 

Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.



 

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Sniffing The Bottom Of The Cycle – July 23, 2019
 · Equities · 

The outlook for U.S. semiconductor and semi-equipment stocks remains a hotly debated topic.



 

Latam – Is Brazil Really A Better Credit Than Mexico? – July 23, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

The steady change in perceptions of economic/political risks in Brazil versus Mexico has seen Brazilian financial assets massively outperform their Mexican counterparts…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It May Be Unnecessary, But… – July 19, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors remain wary of taking risk outside of U.S. large-cap stocks, implying that there is still considerable sidelined cash to buy equities – but only if economic confidence improves.



 

Equities – U.S.: Forget Margins, Focus On Revenue – July 19, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – Shiller P/E Ratio: Focus On The Earnings (8min:34sec) – July 17, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins takes another look at the Shiller P/E ratio to assess the implications for U.S. stocks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s A Grind – July 12, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed is committed to a rate cut later this month, and will stay dovish even after economic news improves.



 

U.S. Equities – A Tough Spot For The Equity Market – July 12, 2019
 · Equities · 

There is scope for U.S. equities to advance in the year ahead, assuming the economic expansion continues.



 

Equities – U.S. Equities: The Real Issue With The Shiller P/E Ratio – July 12, 2019
Equities · 

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Emerging Markets Equities Report – The Fed Forgives, But Several Leaps Of Faith Still Required – July 11, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM equity investors are required to take several leaps of faith when looking at prospects for the year ahead.



 

Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.



 

Webcast – Snack On EM Debt While Watching The U.S./China Slugfest (6min:49sec) – July 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Webcast features Mehran Nakhjavani discussing the implications of the G20 summit for various EM assets.



 

Regional Equities – Limited Late-Cycle Beta Warranted – June 28, 2019
 · Equities · 

The health of the global economic expansion will be the key driver of relative equity market performance in the year ahead, rather than valuations or monetary policy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.



 

Webcast – Investing In A Politically Unstable World (16min:20sec) – June 26, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar shares the major takeaways for clients from his recent trip to Bermuda where he spoke at the Bermuda National Gallery on the wave of social and political instability spreading across the globe.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Binary Outcomes – June 21, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed has now shifted full-circle to the dovish side. However, the forward markets are too aggressive in terms of expected rate cuts this year, unless economic activity deteriorates meaningfully, which we do not expect.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Calibrating Downside And Upside Risk – June 20, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our base-case scenario is that the global economic expansion will persist, with growth around potential, and manufacturing and trade activity firming modestly over the next 6-12 months.



 

Webcast – Growth Vs Value: An Update (9min:31sec) – June 19, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. style performance.



 

China – Will China Reflate, And What Would It Mean If It Did? – June 19, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Once a month, we review current Chinese macroeconomic indicators for signs of shifting momentum, potential policy adjustments and the outlook for China-related assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Crosscurrents Continue – June 14, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equity and credit markets remain caught between mounting trade tensions, and supportive monetary conditions and positive underlying corporate profitability.



 

Equities – Switzerland: Shelter From The Storm – June 14, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Macro Conditions Still Favor Growth Over Value – June 13, 2019
 · Equities · 

U.S. growth stocks have rebounded sharply this year relative to their value peers, reversing their relative losses in late-2018.



 

Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.



 

Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
 · Themes · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Global Economy Prove Resilient? – May 30, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A firming in some U.S. and euro area business and consumer surveys this week were offset by signs of an escalation in the U.S./China trade war.



 

Equities – Australian Equities: Material Risk – May 30, 2019
Equities · 

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Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
 · Themes · 

This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.



 

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Trade Tensions Expose New Risks – May 28, 2019
 · Equities · 

Semiconductor and semi-equipment stocks have fallen sharply since trade tensions between the U.S. and China flared up earlier this month.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · 

The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.



 

China – Preparing For A Digital Iron Curtain – May 22, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Beware the tendency to attribute every twitch in Chinese asset prices to the current tweet on trade.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Protecting Some Profits – May 17, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are protecting profits and downgrading equities to neutral within a multi-asset portfolio, following the powerful run-up in prices this year and recent escalation in trade tensions. 



 

Equities – An Aging Global Earnings Cycle Still Offers Upside – May 16, 2019
 · Equities · 

The current economic expansion is the longest on record, if measured by the U.S. cycle.



 

Emerging Market Equities – Political Risks Warrant A Neutral Call – May 16, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The EM earnings backdrop remains modestly positive, which is consistent with stabilizing, rather than recovering, global trade momentum.



 

U.S. Equities – Navigating Trade Uncertainties – May 14, 2019
 · Equities · 

Equities have been jolted in the past week after an abrupt escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Here We Go Again – May 10, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S./China trade tensions have flared anew, although we still expect that mutual political/economic interests will result in an eventual agreement. Equities and credit are at near-run risk due to the spike in trade concerns; the 6-12 month outlook is still positive.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Tentative Signs Of An Earnings Bottom – May 10, 2019
Equities · 

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South Africa – Underwhelming Politics, But A Disaster Was Avoided – May 9, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

This week’s elections failed to deliver a convincing enough mandate for President Ramaphosa to carry out root-and-branch structural reforms, and while it is difficult to identify a long term winner, the clear loser is private sector investment and job creation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.



 

Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.



 

U.S. Equities – Health Care Stocks: Putting Policy Risks Into Context – May 2, 2019
 · Equities · 

Health care stocks have been battered in recent months due to concerns about increased government intervention in the sector.



 

Webcast – Blowing Bubbles (9min:15sec) – May 1, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Central banks have used subdued consumer price inflation to justify keeping policy ultra-accommodative.



 

Theme – A Bubbly World: A Critique Of The Fed’s Pivot – April 30, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Central banks have used subdued consumer price inflation to justify keeping policy ultra-accommodative.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The Pain Trades Rolls On – April 26, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Central banks, including the Fed, will stay dovish until after better economic data arrives, which bodes well for equities and credit.



 

Equities – Euro Area Industrials: Tailwinds Will Persist – April 26, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Road & Rail Stocks: Downside Risks Diminishing, But Caution Is Still Warranted – April 23, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our report examines the prospects for the road & rail sub-group, which is dominated by railroad companies.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Don’t Short U.S. Corporate Profits – April 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The improvement in the Chinese economy is gaining momentum, and will provide a lift to global activity and support risk asset prices.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V – April 12, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. and global ex-U.S. equity prices should hit new highs given our expectation that the tentative turnaround in global trade and manufacturing activity will gain momentum.



 

Equities – How Much Relative Bang For The Buck Are U.S. Stocks Delivering? – April 12, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – Signs Of An Economic Inflection Point (9min:18sec) – April 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – Signs Of Stability, But Too Early To Rotate Out Of Quality And Growth – April 4, 2019
 · Equities · 

The first quarter saw cyclical stocks rebound from deeply oversold levels relative to their defensives counterparts.



 

Webcast – Cyclical Opportunities (7min:41sec) – April 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for regional equities and MRB’s recommended position for the next 6-12 months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Fork In The Road – March 29, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The sharp bounce in risk asset prices this quarter is due for a pause. A resumption in the uptrend needs evidence that global economic activity is firming.



 

Equities – U.S. Equities: Small-Cap Warning Sign? – March 29, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – Client Requests Of The Month (9min:19sec) – March 27, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.



 

Regional Equities Report – A Sustained Expansion Favors Cyclical Markets – March 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

We expect equity prices to be higher over the next 6-12 months, albeit with periodic setbacks that will test nerves.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflation Top Up – March 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed added additional economic insurance this week, which will cap bond yields, but provide further fuel for risk asset prices.



 

U.S. Equities – Semiconductor Stocks: Don’t Chase – March 22, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our report discusses why investors should not chase the rally in the semiconductor sub-group.



 

Equities – Australia: Struggling To Leverage Iron Ore – March 22, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – Japan’s Corporate Sector Still Gets No Respect (10min:26sec) – March 20, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins looks at Japanese corporate fundamentals and the implications for equity market performance.



 

Emerging Market Equities – A Narrowing Base, But Liquidity Is Forgiving – March 19, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

The case for overweighting emerging markets in a global equity portfolio rests on a narrowing base.



 

U.S. Equities – Industrial Stocks: More Pain Ahead – March 15, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our report examines the prospects for industrial stocks, which have suffered a setback in the past week, due in part, to the selloff in Boeing’s shares.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Tortoise Cycle – March 15, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The window of opportunity for further gains in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist for the next 6 to 12 months.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.



 

Japan – Corporate Finances: Healthy, But Struggling For Growth – March 14, 2019
 · Equities · 

Underlying profitability and balance sheet health have been on an improving trend for several years, and are sounder than Japanese stock prices imply.



 

Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.



 

Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.



 

Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Stay The Course, For Now – March 1, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The 6-12 month outlook is positive for most risk assets. The monetary backdrop remains accommodative, especially with the Fed sidelined, and global economic activity is stabilizing with high odds of a gradual improvement.



 

U.K. – The Political Reality Is Beginning To Hit Home – March 1, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Health Care Provider & Service Stocks: Buy The Dip – February 26, 2019
 · Equities · 

We recommend upgrading the health care providers & services sub-group to overweight from neutral. Our report provides the rationale behind our bullish stance on these stocks.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Flickers Of Life – February 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A calm bond market, sidelined central banks and good odds that corporate earnings will grind higher this year, all bode well for equities and credit.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Don’t Fret About The Recent Re-Rating – February 22, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – A Justified Equity Re-Rating (8min:22sec) – February 20, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins examines the recent rebound in equities across key markets, breaking down earnings trends and valuations, as well as implications for prospective returns.



 

U.S. Equities – Bank Stocks: Don’t Throw In The Powell – February 19, 2019
 · Equities · 

Our report examines the prospects for U.S. bank stocks in light of the recent dovish shift in the Fed’s forward guidance on interest rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Testing Times – February 15, 2019
 · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some key equity indexes are breaking above resistance levels and high-yield corporate bond spreads are narrowing, which bode well for risk assets.



 

Equities – Japan: Positive Fundamentals Belie Laggard Status – February 15, 2019
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Real Estate Stocks: A Temporary Reprieve – February 14, 2019
 · Equities · 

This report updates our views on U.S. real estate stocks (i.e. REITs).



 

Webcast – An Update On The U.S. Market Outlook And Sector Positioning (7min:45sec) – February 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti discusses the outlook for U.S. equities and MRB’s recommended positioning.



 

U.S. Equities – Does The Fed Pause Warrant A Re-Positioning Of Portfolios? – February 11, 2019
 · Equities · 

This report updates our views on U.S. sector positioning in light of the Fed’s recent policy U-turn.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Pain Trade Persist? – February 8, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth has softened, but key demand engines are in good shape.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Signposts For The Equity Rebound – February 8, 2019
Equities · 

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Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.



 

Emerging Markets – Latam Play: Brazilian Stocks And Mexican Bonds Will Win – January 31, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

Brazil and Mexico typically compete for Latam portfolio flows. Today’s report concludes that investors are likely to rotate into Mexican peso bonds as the relative risk/reward profile has tilted against Brazilian local bonds.



 

Webcast – The Recession That Refreshes (9min:45sec) – January 30, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa look ahead to what awaits during the next global recession.



 

U.S. Equities – U.S. Earnings: Benign Deceleration Or Pernicious Decline? – January 25, 2019
 · Equities · 

Corporate earnings will remain in the spotlight in the next few weeks as fourth-quarter (Q4) results from S&P 500 companies continue to pour in.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It’s Late, But Not Yet Over – January 25, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent equity market low (high in corporate bond spreads) should hold, but a re-test is still possible.



 

Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part II) – January 24, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the second of a two-part MRB Theme Report that outlines several non-consensus views about the next global recession and environment



 

Webcast – U.S. Equities: Focus On The Top-Line (6min:59sec) – January 23, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins examines the outlook for revenue growth for the S&P 500 in 2019, which will be the key to equity market performance.



 

U.S. – Equities: Revenue Growth Will Be The Key – January 22, 2019
 · Equities · 

Revenue performance, rather than the fading impact of the tax cuts, share buybacks or profit margins will drive the U.S. equity market in 2019.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Gauging Rebound Potential – January 18, 2019
Equities · 

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Emerging Markets Equities Report – Focus On Financials, Trade Worries Will Dissipate – January 17, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

Of the four major drivers of recent EM equity outperformance – currency trends, internet stocks, financials and, more generally…



 

Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like



 

U.S. Equities – It Boils Down To The Recession Call – January 15, 2019
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The dominant issue for equity markets in early-2019 is whether the collapse in… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Calmer Heads Prevail? – January 11, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk asset markets overreacted to a modest deterioration in the fundamentals in late-2018.



 

Equities – Global Equities: Appealing Dividends – January 11, 2019
Equities · 

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Charts – China: Growth Trends Diverge Sharply – January 10, 2019
 · Emerging Markets · 

A bearish narrative pervades investor interpretation of Chinese economic data



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.



 

Webcast – Excessive Pessimism Priced In (10min:32sec) – January 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest asset allocation strategy, arguing that markets are discounting an overly bearish economic outlook in 2019.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Precarious Footing – January 4, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets are discounting a pronounced further slowdown in global economic growth in 2019, with a significant probability of recession.



 

Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.



 

U.S. Sector Strategy – 2019 Outlook: Staying Balanced And Diversified – December 21, 2018
 · Equities · 

Equity markets are ending the year on a downbeat note, with end-of-cycle fears and political uncertainties continuing to weigh heavily on investor sentiment.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It Is Either/Or – December 21, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The FOMC (and chair Powell) stumbled in its communication strategy this week.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.



 

Regional Equities Report – Relative Performance Shifts Emerging – December 19, 2018
 · Equities · 

Our view, as outlined last week in the MRB Weekly Macro Strategy, is that the global economic expansion will persist,



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.



 

WMS – U.S. Equity Sectors – Stay Flexible And Balanced Within The U.S. Equity Market – December 14, 2018
Equities · 

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WMS – Global Equities – A Looming Leadership Change – December 14, 2018
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Trade Whipsaw – December 10, 2018
 · Equities · 

Markets have been whipsawed over the past week amid confusion over the substance of a U.S./China trade cease-fire and fears that the recently agreed to truce will prove fragile



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.



 

Webcast – Stylized Investment Cycle: Navigating The Endgame (11min:42sec) – December 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Global equity markets are in turmoil, as investors are rapidly downgrading the growth expectations and starting to panic about the potential for a global recession.



 

Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle: Extended Topping Out Process – December 4, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since we introduced it to clients earlier this decade.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-Off Pressures Ease – November 30, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Worries that the Fed will prematurely turn restrictive have diminished, helping to calm the Treasury market.



 

WMS – Equities – Global Equities: Relative Performance Is All About Tech – November 30, 2018
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Some Hopeful Signs Amid The Gloom – November 26, 2018
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. equity markets have remained volatile in the wake of last month’s sell-off…. Continue



 

Charts – China: Stocks Stir, Will The Economy Follow? – November 26, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

Something is stirring in China’s mainland bourses: for the past month the local CSI300 index has been under less pressure than the MSCI China index.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding Landmines – November 23, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run cautiousness is warranted until some positive political developments lift sentiment.



 

WMS – Equities – The Global Earnings Outlook Is Too Bearish – November 23, 2018
Equities · 

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Absolute Return Strategy – Global Economic Stool: Are The Legs Wobbly? – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been hit hard over the past few weeks, with global… Continue



 

Emerging Market Equities Report – Chinese Catalysts For An EM Rebound – November 21, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This year’s selloff of EM-related assets, overdone as it was, has largely blown… Continue



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.



 

Theme – The Great Convergence: U.S. Vs Global Equities – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Equities · Themes · 

U.S. equity prices have surged this cycle relative to their non-U.S. counterparts by a magnitude that that has been on par with the 1990s economic expansion and equity bull run.



 

Brazil – Overdone, Or Just Getting Started? – November 20, 2018
Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

Brazilian stocks, bonds and the Real have all been on a tear since their trough in September, benefitting our overweight positions in EM equity, bond and currency portfolios.



 

WMS – Emerging Markets – Korea And Taiwan Equities: Collateral Damage – November 16, 2018
Emerging Markets · Equities · 

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Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.



 

U.S. Equities – Tech Stocks: Putting The October Rout Into Context – November 12, 2018
 · Equities · 

Technology stocks sold-off sharply last month as concerns about trade tariffs and rising interest rates spurred a significant bout of profit-taking in the sector.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back To Gridlock – November 9, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. politics will remain “noisy”, but should have an overall benign impact on the economy and financial markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Excessive Growth Anxiety – November 2, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Last month’s market reaction was largely overdone. That U.S. economic and earnings growth are in the process of peaking which goes without saying given that this year’s fiscal stimulus will fade in 2019.



 

U.S. Equities – Peak Earnings Growth, Not Peak Earnings – November 1, 2018
 · Equities · 

Last month’s correction has pushed valuations for the U.S. equity benchmark to levels where they discount an overly bearish outcome for earnings.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Sentiment Versus Fundamentals – October 26, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.



 

WMS – Equities – Global Markets Are Discounting A Major Decline In Earnings – October 26, 2018
Equities · 

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Webcast – Bond Yields, Choke Points & Relief Valves (12min:26sec) – October 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Financial markets have been shaken as investors have rapidly adjusted their expectations to reflect a higher bond yield environment.



 

Charts – China: Talking Up A Recovery – October 24, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange · 

This year’s deceleration of Chinese economic activity is on track, with the epicenter being a sharp retreat in public infrastructure spending.



 

South Africa – Circles Or Spirals? – October 23, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

It has been a turbulent year for South African financial assets, starting with a euphoric rally after President Ramaphosa’s victory in December 2017, and then giving back earlier gains as investors’ patience broke in the summer.



 

U.S. Equities – Don’t Give Up On U.S. Growth Stocks – October 19, 2018
 · Equities · 

End-of-cycle conditions are not on the horizon. However, a calming of trade tensions and improvement in non-U.S. economic growth momentum are needed to spur the next upleg in equity prices.



 

WMS – Emerging Markets – EM Equities: Apart From Tech, Perking Up In Relative Terms – October 19, 2018
Emerging Markets · 

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U.S. Equities – Semiconductor & Semi Equipment Stocks: Too Early To Buy – October 19, 2018
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – U.S. Bank Stocks: Bank On Earnings Remaining Resilient – October 19, 2018
Equities · 

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Emerging Markets – Brazil and Mexico: A Phoenix, Not A Dragon – October 16, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

Factors that caused investors to lose faith with Brazil and Mexico earlier this year are now reversing and both markets are well set to deliver positive absolute and relative performance.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Bond Yields Reach A Choke Point – October 12, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.



 

Webcast – A Fresh Test For Investors (8min:45sec) – October 10, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Bond Bear Bites Again – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

The abrupt breakout in U.S. Treasury yields over the past week caught many investors by surprise and sent shockwaves through financial asset markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bond Bear Growls – October 5, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The breakout in U.S Treasury yields represents a fresh challenge to a global economy that has been resilient this year, thanks to ongoing policy support and still-positive cyclical dynamics.



 

U.S. Equity Sectors – Don’t Chase Mini Rotations – October 4, 2018
 · Equities · 

The crosscurrents of strong corporate earnings and global trade/non-U.S. growth uncertainties warrant maintaining only a modestly pro-growth sector positioning stance.



 

Theme – A Secular Upshift In Inflation (Part II) – October 2, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the concluding part of a two-part MRB Theme Report analyzing the underlying shift in the trend of global consumer price inflation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Message To The Fed: It’s Far From Over – September 28, 2018
 · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A dovish Fed may provide Treasurys with a brief reprieve. However, we remain bearish on bonds: the Fed will ultimately raise rates by more than expected.



 

WMS – Equities – Italian Equities: The Doom Loop Rises Again – September 28, 2018
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Is The Worst Over? – September 21, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

On/off trade worries are again receding, spurring a risk-on phase. The global stock/bond ratio has room to rise, as positive economic fundamentals will persist.



 

Regional Equities – Relative Extremes Cannot Be Sustained – September 20, 2018
 · Equities · 

Global equities have diverged sharply this year, with the U.S. market roaring to new highs, while most non-U.S. benchmarks have faltered since hitting cyclical peaks early this year.



 

Webcast – Staying Diversified, But With A Pro-Growth Bias (11min:07sec) – September 19, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti provides a quick update on our U.S. sector positioning views and discusses the outlook for multiline retailing stocks, as well as risks and opportunities within the health care sector.



 

U.S. Equities – Staying Diversified, But With A Pro-Growth Bias – September 14, 2018
 · Equities · 

Rising earnings are continuing to provide support to the U.S. equity market. However, a further significant advance in equity prices is dependent on the U.S. protectionist threat receding and non-U.S. economic growth momentum showing definitive signs of firming.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Opposing Forces – September 14, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Once again, there are glimmers of hope on the trade front. A meaningful easing in tensions would signal that the risk-on backdrop in the U.S. will spread abroad.



 

WMS – Equities – Global Equities Hitting Technical Extremes – September 14, 2018
Equities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Liquidity Fears Are Overdone – September 7, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Fears of a squeeze on global liquidity are increasing, as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and continues its grad



 

Emerging Market Equities Report – Trade Peace First, Outperformance Next – September 6, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM equities have taken a hit in the last several months and market narratives tend to blame currency weakness in several G20 economies (Argentina, Brazil, Russia, South Africa, Turkey) and the threat of trade war.



 

U.S. Equities Charts – U.S. Corporate Profits: Myth, Reality And Hyperbole – August 31, 2018
 · Equities · 

The performance of U.S. corporate profits has been a regular source of contention over the course of this cycle.



 

Known Unknowns: The Keys To Investment Strategy – August 30, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · 

In an era of mega data, algorithm-based investing, and information overload, many of the ultimate keys to economic and capital markets performance depend on judgments about abstract, unknowable variables.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – Trade Anxiety Should Fade – August 28, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Whether due to fears of a global trade war, a significant yuan devaluation,… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.



 

U.S. Equities – Are Defensive Stocks Telling Us Something? – August 27, 2018
 · Equities · 

The recent outperformance of defensive sectors has raised some eyebrows and incited concerns about economic prospects.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Surmounting The Hurdles (Yet Again) – August 24, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth has stabilized at historically solid levels, underscoring that conditions remain supportive of equity markets and bearish for bonds.



 

WMS – Equities – U.S.: Comparisons With The 1990s Bull Market – August 24, 2018
Equities · 

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A Primer On IMF Rescue Plans: A Turkish Example – August 20, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Turkey is staring at a currency, banking and economic crisis as its access to foreign finance dries up.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-On Or Risk-Off? – August 17, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Turkish meltdown should not have an escalating domino effect on the EM world, nor on overall global economic activity.



 

WMS – Equities – Euro Area Financial Stocks: Turkey Fallout – August 17, 2018
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Looking To Upgrade Equities – August 10, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Underlying economic and corporate earnings prospects are still positive, but an easing in trade tensions is needed to lift non-U.S. equity market sentiment.



 

U.S. Equities – Earnings Reassure The Markets – August 10, 2018
 · Equities · 

The broad-based strength in second-quarter earnings confirms that corporate fundamentals remain positive, implying that equities are likely to rise if protectionist threats diminish.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Markets In Limbo – August 3, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets remain in limbo, with key equity, bond and currency benchmarks still largely range-bound.



 

Webcast – GICS Reclassification And Its Implications (10min:07sec) – August 1 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Salvatore Ruscitti looks at the upcoming changes to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS), and discusses their potential impact on sector behavior and the implications for investment strategy.



 

U.S. Equities – The Upcoming Reshuffling Of Sectors: What Are The Implications For Investors? – July 31, 2018
 · Equities · 

Major revisions to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) structure are scheduled to go into effect on September 28, 2018.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Internet Companies (Part I): Are Growth Projections Realistic? – July 31, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The internet is eating China’s economy, and China’s large internet companies are eating their competitors. Investors believe that this trend will continue over the longer-run, thereby justifying the technology sector’s rich valuations.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back From The Brink? – July 27, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There was a glimmer of hope this week that the U.S. will not push the world into a spiral of protectionism.



 

WMS – Equities – Global Equities: Impressive Earnings Breadth – July 27, 2018
Equities · 

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Webcast – MRB Q&A: Top Questions From Clients (9min:35sec) – July 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Peter Perkins answers some of the key client questions we have recently received, ranging from the impact of trade protectionism on investment strategy to the outlook for gold.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Resilient Or Complacent? – July 20, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautiously optimistic that the global stock/bond ratio will move higher in the next 6-12 months



 

Latam – Latin America: Short Term Pain Will Give Way To Long Term Gain – July 19, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

Latam financial assets have been buffeted by the combination of rising global protectionist threats and self-inflicted wounds in Argentina, Brazil and until recently, Mexico.



 

U.S. Equities – Solid Corporate Fundamentals Vs Trade Uncertainties: The Tug-Of War Will Go On – July 18, 2018
 · Equities · 

The U.S. equity market has been grinding higher in recent months, but a decisive breakout to new highs is unlikely before trade tensions calm and global economic growth momentum bottoms.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – No Blinking So Far – July 13, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The trade war has not de-escalated. Thus, equity prices will remain at risk in the near run, and bond prices will stay supported.



 

Emerging Markets Equities Report – Love It, Or Leave It – July 12, 2018
Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM equities have decent earnings growth potential and recent selling pressure has restored attractive valuations.



 

U.S. Equities – Fundamentals Still Favor A Moderately Pro-Cyclical Positioning Stance – July 10, 2018
 · Equities · 

The equity market has been resilient of late despite escalating trade tensions.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – China’s Bear: Hunt Or Run? – July 10, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Despite large differences in sector composition, valuations, and international trade exposure, correlations between China’s CSI-300 index, the MSCI China and MSCI Hong Kong indexes have risen to the highest levels in more than a decade.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The Churn Continues – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s report revisits three topics that continue to be heavily debated and which we believe investors are focused inappropriately.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Economic Resilience Last? – June 29, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There have been conflicting messages from global financial markets, underscoring the uncertain investment landscape.



 

WMS – Equities – The Message From Global Small Cap Stocks – June 29, 2018
Equities · 

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Asia Ex-Japan Report – The Drums Of Trade War Echo Across Asia – June 28, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Sino-U.S. trade tensions have weighed heavily on Asia ex-Japan equities in recent weeks as the phony trade war now seems to be escalating into the real thing.



 

U.S. Equities – Staying Constructive, But Keep An Eye On Brewing Trade Tensions – June 26, 2018
 · Equities · 

The equity market will remain choppy until trade uncertainties recede and global growth momentum bottoms.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.



 

Regional Equities – Protectionism Threatens Export-Driven Markets – June 21, 2018
 · Equities · 

An array of concerns has weighed on global equities since the January peak, most recently with the escalation of U.S. trade protectionist measures.



 

Saudi Arabia – Three Questions, One Answer – June 21, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

With Saudi bond issuance burgeoning, and its equity market soon to be included in EM benchmarks, the country is on the cusp of becoming a mainstream destination for foreign portfolio investors.



 

U.S. Equities – A Valuation Deep Dive Across Sectors – June 18, 2018
 · Equities · 

Valuations for the broad U.S. equity market have re-set lower since late-January.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Hawks And Doves – June 15, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The U.S. economy is reaccelerating and we expect the Fed will lift its forecast for the longer-run equilibrium rate by yearend, given the ongoing upcycle in core inflation and wage growth.



 

Charts – Euro Area Equities: Earnings Tailwinds Still Intact – June 15, 2018
 · Equities · 

The recent weakness in euro area equities will give way to another upleg to a fresh cyclical peak over the next 6-12 months.



 

Webcast – Euro Area: Cyclical Vs Structural Outlook (13min:54sec) – June 13, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 13 after… Continue



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – Asia Policy Round Up: Gearing Up For The 2019 Elections – June 12, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

The U.S. dollar’s recent appreciation has bifurcated monetary policy across South and Southeast Asia.



 

Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part II): Structurally Flawed – June 11, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

This is the second report of a two-part series which provides a broader perspective of the cyclical and structural crosscurrents facing the euro area.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Wobbly Leg? – June 8, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Recent weakness in some euro area economic indicators should soon give way to stability.



 

WMS – Equities – Euro Area: Equities The Earnings Recovery Is Intact So Far – June 8, 2018
Equities · 

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Theme – Euro Area Crosscurrents (Part I): Cyclically Resilient – June 7, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

Several headwinds have hit the euro area in recent months, making investors question if the steady improvements recorded last year have given way to something more ominous.



 

Webcast – Euro Area Equities: Struggling, But The Earnings Recovery Is Still On Track (7min:58sec) – June 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins digs into euro area equities to assess the outlook and gauge whether recent weakness represents an opportunity or a warning sign.



 

U.S. Equities – Messy Politics Vs Strong Corporate Fundamentals – June 4, 2018
 · Equities · 

We expect the equity market to remain range-bound in the near run as a strong corporate earnings outlook is offset by ongoing trade tensions, overseas growth concerns, and geopolitical uncertainties.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Into The Endgame – May 30, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

Global equities have swung wildly this year. Our base-case view is that recent selling pressure will prove to be a setback, rather than the start of a bear market.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Report – Navigating The Political Risks In Southeast Asia – May 29, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange · 

After a shock election result, the new government in Malaysia has been grappling with the hidden fiscal weakness left behind by the previous, deeply corrupt ruling coalition.



 

U.S. Equities – Too Early To Tilt Towards Defensives – May 29, 2018
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Equity markets will remain in a churning phase as investors continue to digest… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Lot Of Churning – May 25, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty remain elevated, which will continue to hold back the global stock/bond ratio in the near run.



 

Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes · 

Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.



 

Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – Uncertainty Will Give Way To Optimism – May 22, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The relative performance of Asia Ex-Japan equities has been stuck in a choppy sideways trading range this year due to worries about global economic growth, rising U.S. Treasury yields and an appreciating dollar, as well as margin pressure in China’s technology sector.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Floors And Ceilings – May 18, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The breakout in U.S. bond yields and rebound in the dollar underscore that the U.S. policy/economic cycle still has momentum.



 

WMS – Equities – Euro Area Equities Getting A Lift From The Euro – May 18, 2018
Equities · 

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Asia Ex-Japan – Growth Fears Are Overblown – May 16, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s soft landing remained on track in April. The MRB China Early Economic… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – The End Of Cheap Oil? – May 14, 2018
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Despite the recent positive price action, we expect macro cross-currents to keep equity… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More Churning, But The Cycle Remains Intact – May 11, 2018
 · Commodities · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. inflationary pressures continue to slowly build, and emergency-level interest rates outside of the U.S. are no longer warranted.



 

WMS – Equities – Global Equities: Winners And Losers From Higher Oil Prices – May 11, 2018
Commodities · Equities · 

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Emerging Market Equities Report – Not The End, Yet – May 8, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global trade growth has been the single most reliable indicator of EM equity… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – End-Of-Cycle Fears Are Premature – May 7, 2018
 · Equities · 

Equities will continue to churn in the near run, but the risks of a recession in the next year remain low.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Cash Is King – May 4, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The crosscurrents of a moderation in global growth momentum, combined with ongoing Fed rate hikes, rising U.S. inflation, and looming U.S. protectionist measures, portends continued churning in global capital markets in the near term.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – Chinese Banks: Earnings Are Looking Up – May 1, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

China’s listed banks are likely to see a reduction in provisioning costs over the next two years, which should deliver the strongest earnings growth since 2013.



 

U.S. Equities – Good Earnings, Ho-Hum Reaction – April 30, 2018
 · Equities · 

Rising bond yields and uncertainties related to trade policy were likely behind the “sell-the-news” reaction to solid earnings results last week.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Can Stocks Weather Higher Bond Yields? – April 27, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some positive economic surprises this week suggest that global growth is likely to prove resilient.



 

WMS – Equities – The Equity Correction Is Really All About Bonds – April 27, 2018
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Banks And Semis: Are The Bearish Narratives Justified? – April 23, 2018
 · Equities · 

The upward bias in inflation expectations and bond yields implies that the digestion phase for the U.S. equity market will persist in the near run.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Confidence Hold? – April 20, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth is cooling after last year’s mini-boom, but a sizable slowdown is unlikely, provided trade tensions do not escalate.



 

Absolute Return – Growth Vs Value Stocks: When To Rotate? – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return · Equities · 

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WMS – Equities – U.K.: Relief Rally – April 20, 2018
Equities · 

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U.S. Equities – Will Earnings Assuage Investors? – April 16, 2018
 · Equities · 

The U.S. equity market will remain volatile as economic growth momentum moderates and the cyclical build-up of inflationary pressures persists.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.



 

WMS – Equities – Equities Cross Country Valuation Comparisons – April 13, 2018
Equities · 

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WMS – Equities – Japan: Solid Earnings Underpinnings – April 13, 2018
Equities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Many Moving (i.e. Conflicting) Parts – April 6, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

A moderation in growth momentum, combined with additional Fed rate hikes and, more recently, the escalating trade battle between the U.S. and China, implies continuing market volatility and warrants near-term caution toward risk assets.



 

Webcast – Higher Volatility, But Not The End Of The Cycle (10min:53sec) – April 4, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Several issues have weighed on the equity markets in recent weeks including trade tensions between the U.S. and China, the spike in LIBOR rates, and concerns about increased government intervention in the technology sector.



 

U.S. Equities – The FANGs Lose Their Bite – April 3, 2018
 · Equities · 

Equity markets have come under renewed downside pressure in the past week due to a host of factors including ongoing trade tensions, fears of increased regulation for the technology sector, and the LIBOR-OIS spread widening.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More To Go – March 29, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Heightened geopolitical tensions and stock-specific woes in the tech sector will keep equity markets weak in the near run.



 

WMS – Equities – The Current Correction: It Is Different This Time – March 29, 2018
Equities · 

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Regional Equities – Heavy Weather – March 28, 2018
 · Equities · 

There are crosscurrents for regional positioning in the near run compared with our base case 6-12 month horizon.



 

Webcast – U.S.-China Trade Tensions: War Or Peace? (7min:28sec) – March 28, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The U.S. administration’s plan to slap tariffs on $60 bn worth of Chinese imports has raised concerns that the squabble could escalate into a global trade war.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – Is A Trade War Brewing? – March 27, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange · 

Proposed U.S. tariffs on about US$60 bn worth of Chinese imports roiled Asian markets at the end of last week.



 

U.S. Equities – A Negative News Cycle For Stocks – March 26, 2018
 · Asset Class Reports · Equities · 

U.S. equity markets were roiled last week as investors worried about several issues including the prospects of a trade war, the fallout from the data harvesting scandal at Facebook, and anxiety over Fed rate hikes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Slippery Slope – March 23, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent risk-off phase was initially driven by rising bond yields, but now fears of protectionism have moved to the forefront. Barring an escalating trade war, we expect the pause in bond yields and correction in equity prices to reverse beyond the near run.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Tug-Of-War – March 16, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in bond yields and equity prices is on temporary hold: growth momentum will slow a notch and protectionist concerns may keep some investors cautious, yet the cyclical buildup of inflation pressures will persist



 

WMS – Equities – Euro Area Equities: Earnings Fears Are Exaggerated – March 16, 2018
Equities · 

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Equities – EM Small Caps: Time To Fly? – March 15, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Small capitalization stocks are often treated as the highest-beta segment of an equity universe, where outsized returns are possible during positive economic periods, at the price of high volatility and large drawdowns during bear markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Choppiness Will Persist In The Near Term – March 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets will continue to be in flux in the near term given uncertainty about the inflation and interest rate outlook as well as fresh policy risks, including the recent U.S. protectionist measures.



 

Theme – Isolationism: Sadism Or Masochism? – March 8, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

The threat of a U.S.-led trade war has been lurking since President Trump was elected and has now moved to the forefront of investor worries as the first shot may soon be fired.



 

Webcast – The Case For EM Equities (6min:25sec) – March 7, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The case for overweighting EM in a global equity portfolio is straightforward: global trade is expanding on a sustainable basis.



 

Equity Sectors – U.S. Semiconductor Stocks: Staying The Bullish Course – March 6, 2018
 · Equities · 

Following an earlier bout of profit-taking, the relative performance of U.S. semiconductor & semi-equipment stocks has rebounded impressively in the past month



 

Canada – Economy: Solid, But Highly Interest Rate Sensitive – March 2, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · 

In a world of rising government bond yields, it is important to monitor those economies that are most vulnerable to rising rates.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still In Flux – March 2, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The equity market correction has not yet run its course. On a positive note, the relative resilience of global financial stocks bodes well for another rally phase in the overall stock market



 

Emerging Markets Equities Report – Back Up The Truck – March 1, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

The case for overweighting EM in a global equity portfolio is straightforward: global trade is expanding on a sustainable basis.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Equities: Time To Go Underweight Or Overweight? – February 23, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The correction in risk assets will probably persist in the near run.



 

Webcast – Volatility Redux: Assessing U.S. Portfolio Positioning (10min:31sec) – February 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast,Salvatore Ruscitti provides an update on our U.S. equity sector views given the shifting macro landscape



 

U.S. Equity Sectors – Positioning In A Higher Volatility World – February 20, 2018
 · Equities · 

After a long absence, volatility returned to the equity market earlier this month, triggered by a breakout in Treasury yields.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Fed Become Hemmed-In? – February 16, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Further near-run turbulence in risk asset markets is probable until bond yields plateau.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – Will Stocks Be A Dog This Year? – February 15, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors may be forgiven for thinking the Year of the Dog came early…. Continue



 

Latam – Another Good Year Ahead – February 15, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Latam financial assets mildly underperformed their EM counterparts last year. However, the outlook… Continue



 

U.S. Equities – Higher Volatility: It’s The Fundamentals – February 13, 2018
 · Equities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Volatility has reared its ugly head in the past two weeks, suddenly bolting… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Transitioning To A New Era – February 9, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk asset prices will remain under pressure until bond yields stabilize. The latter… Continue



 

Charts – U.S. Consumer Discretionary Stocks: Eight Reasons To Sell – February 8, 2018
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports After lagging for most of 2017, the relative performance of consumer discretionary stocks… Continue



 

Webcast – The Correction Must Run Its Course (8min:50sec) – February 7, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 7 after… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Protecting Profits – February 5, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Two of the risk factors that we have been monitoring to time an… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue



 

Webcast – MRB Key Themes: Navigating The Roadmap (9min:56sec) – January 31, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). January 31 after… Continue



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 30, 2018
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes… Continue



 

Equity Sectors – U.S. Insurance Stocks: Don’t Give Up On This Beneficiary Of Rising Bond Yields – January 29, 2018
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. insurance stocks have lagged in recent months due to a host of… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – The High-Wire Act Continues – January 26, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The backdrop remains bond-bearish. Meanwhile, technical and valuation measures are progressively deteriorating for equities, particularly in the U.S.



 

Charts – A Weak U.S. Dollar Will Benefit Non-U.S. Equity Markets – January 25, 2018
 · Equities · 

The recent divergence between the performance of the U.S. dollar and regional equity market relative returns in common currency terms is unsustainable.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Into The Extrapolation Phase – January 19, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investors are discounting positive earnings trends well into the future, but have not yet made a parallel adjustment to their interest rate expectations.



 

Asia Ex-Japan – Will Technology’s Tailwinds Fade? – January 18, 2018
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

Asia ex-Japan equities had a very good 2017, in large part due to the technology sector.



 

Webcast – U.S. Tax Reform: Quantifying The Earnings Impact (12min:05sec) – January 17, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this webcast, Sal Ruscitti and Peter Perkins discuss the impact of the recent tax bill on the outlook for U.S. corporate profits, as well as for equity prices.



 

Equities – U.S. Earnings: Tax Cut Juice – January 16, 2018
 · Equities · 

In recent weeks, consensus EPS estimates for 2018 and 2019 have noticeably risen



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Four-Legged Stool: One Too Many? – January 12, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain bearish on bonds and positive on the stock/bond ratio, but acknowledge that equity risks are increasing, with sentiment readings at their most frothy levels of the decade.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy –Risk Assessment: It’s Still Too Soon To Bail – January 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic and policy outlook remains positive for risk assets and we remain moderately overweight equities versus government bonds in a multi-asset portfolio.



 

Webcast – 2018 U.S. Sector Outlook (14min:41sec) – January 3, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, equity sectors strategist Salvatore Ruscitti, assesses the macro outlook for 2018 and the implications for U.S. equity sector positioning.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Betting Against the Consensus – December 22, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global stock/bond ratio has more upside, but mostly because bonds will generate negative returns rather than due to huge equity gains in 2018.



 

Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Favors Non-U.S. – December 21, 2017
Equities · 

The recent bout of U.S. market outperformance will gradually fade, with more cyclical markets including EM Asia, the euro area and Japan better positioned to take advantage of the late-stage economic expansion.



 

Webcast – MRB’s Best Long-Term Bets (7min:39sec) – December 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines several of MRB’s multi-year investment recommendations.



 

Chile – Copper Trumps Politics – December 20, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · 

The Chilean peso has significantly lagged copper prices since the start of the year, suggesting that domestic factors, namely weak growth earlier this year and politics more recently, have weighed on the currency in 2017.



 

U.S. Equity Sectors Report – 2018 U.S. Sector Outlook: Remain Diversified – December 19, 2017
 · Equities · 

The U.S. equity market has enjoyed a banner year, with gains being fueled by a favorable macro backdrop.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.



 

Charts – Euro Area Equities: Another Relative Performance Upleg Is Coming – December 14, 2017
 · Equities · 

The recent disappointment of euro area equities should soon give way to another upleg given the solid economic and earnings outlook, along with strong policy support.



 

U.S. – Capex Cycle: Solid, With Room to Run – December 12, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. business fixed investment accelerated in 2017, following a historically unusual mid-cycle decline that was driven by the prior collapse in commodity prices and appreciation of the dollar.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – What’s Left To Discount? – December 8, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Some near-run caution is warranted in risk asset markets, especially given prospects for higher bond yields.



 

WMS – Equities – If Past Is Prologue, 2018 Should Be Good – December 8, 2017
Equities · 

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Emerging Market Equities Report – Can EM Outperform Without China? – December 7, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM equities respond well to global growth drivers, a relationship once again reinforced by performance over the past year.



 

Webcast – What’s In Store For 2018 (8min:45sec) – December 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for the macro backdrop and the implications for capital markets in 2018.



 

Equities – U.S. Bank Stocks: Should Investors Heed A Flattening Yield Curve? – December 5, 2017
 · Equities · 

The recent sharp flattening of the U.S. yield curve has become a hotly debated topic among investors



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Outlook For 2018 – December 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

Strong returns for most risk assets combined with the advanced age of the U.S. economic expansion have many investors wondering to what extent dangers are building going into 2018.



 

Asset Allocation – The Yield Curve, Recessions And Asset Allocation – December 1, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · Fixed Income · 

An inverted yield curve has a reasonable track-record as an economic signal and hence the curve should be closely monitored in setting investment strategy and risk exposure. However, as an asset allocation and timing tool, there are several considerations in interpreting it.



 

Webcast – The Return Of Inflation: The Big Call For 2018 (10min:43sec) – November 29, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Prajakta Bhide provide MRB’s latest views on U.S. and global inflation. Highlights include:



 

Asia Ex-Japan – On The Road Again — Asia Trip Perspectives – November 29, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

Last week included a trip of client visits in Singapore and Hong Kong, the major theme of which was the outlook for capital markets in 2018 and appropriate asset allocation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It All Comes Down To Inflation – November 24, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain near-run cautious on risk assets, but are still positive on the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Charts – U.K. Equities: No Turnaround In Sight – November 22, 2017
 · Equities · 

The U.K. equity market faces a more challenging year as Brexit risks increase and commodity price gains fizzle.



 

Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – November 21, 2017
 · Equities · 

It has been a great year for Asia Ex-Japan equities. Global growth accelerated, and global exports outpaced GDP.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 17, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A near-run correction in risk assets is underway. We do not expect it to progress into a significant setback and thus are not de-risking our moderately pro-growth stance.



 

Equities – U.S. Chemical Stocks: Near-Term Outlook Less Negative, But Longer-Term Concerns Linger – November 16, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. chemical stocks have faced a host of challenges in recent years. However,… Continue



 

Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part IV): Timing The End Of The Bull Market – November 10, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the fourth and final MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 10, 2017
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A bond and equity correction looms as the inflation, policy and economic backdrop turns marginally less supportive. Moreover, high-yield corporate bond spreads have edged up lately, a potential warning sign for equities.



 

Webcast – It Will Be More Difficult Next Year (8min:07sec) – November 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). November 8 after… Continue



 

Charts – Japanese Equities In Charts: The Bull Case – November 7, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Today’s report outlines a number of themes that underpin our positive stance on… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – November 6, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global equities have powered ahead in recent weeks, benefiting our pro-growth investment stance…. Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – November 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports It’s been a banner year for investors. Global equity returns are 21% year-to-date… Continue



 

Charts – Equity Sectors: Our Favorite Charts – November 2, 2017
 · Equities · 

Today’s report provides our 12 favorite U.S. sector/industry sub-group charts. We also discuss their implications.



 

Webcast – The Disinflation Tailwind Has Passed (9min:23sec) – November 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for the major asset classes and examines the key economic, policy and valuations drivers.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – November 1, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes · 

This is the third MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

South Africa Report – October 31, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

South African financial markets were buffeted by yet another government misstep, this time in last week’s mid-term budget speech during which the Finance Minister downplayed fiscal consolidation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 27, 2017
Asset Class Reports · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Both the ECB and the BoC confirmed that they remain keen to stay behind the economic curve, which is pro-growth and bullish for the global stock/bond ratio.



 

Long-Term Returns Report – October 26, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · 

The coming decade will see an end to an era of steadily declining discount rates and the associated boost to asset valuations. Prospective returns for balanced portfolios will be middling by historical standards, accompanied by lower Sharpe ratios.



 

Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part II): Asset Class Positioning – October 25, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the second MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle, which is one of our most popular thematic frameworks. Part I outlined our framework and where financial markets currently are within the investment cycle.



 

China – Private Sector: Crisis Or Opportunity? – October 24, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

China’s industrial-led rebound has greatly benefitted its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), while private industrial firms appear to have languished in terms of output and profits.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 20, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prospects for the three legs in the global economic stool – the U.S., euro area and China – remain upbeat.



 

WMS – Equities – Euro Area Small Caps Still Have Room to Run – October 20, 2017
Equities · 

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Equities – Trump’s Executive Order On Health Care: Should Investors Worry? – October 19, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · 

Last week, President Trump decided to halt cost-sharing subsidies to health insurers on top of signing an executive order…



 

WMS – Equities – Spanish Equities: Separation Anxiety – October 13, 2017
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 13, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We examine the main cyclical risk factors and conclude that they are still not flashing warning signs.



 

Latam Report – Opportunities Loom For Latam – October 12, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

A number of interesting investment opportunities will emerge in Latam financial markets once the final U.S. dollar cyclical upleg reaches its apex, and a China-related air pocket in commodity pits is out of the way.



 

China – Ignore Politics, Focus On Housing – October 12, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Foreign Exchange · 

The Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Party Congress kicks off next week, which will result in a massive turnover of the country’s top political and military leadership.



 

Webcast – Too Good To Last? (9min:48sec) – October 11, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s overarching investment strategy and asset allocation outlook for the next 6-12 months.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – October 11, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks over the years.



 

Equities – U.S. Auto Stocks: Fade The Rally – October 6, 2017
 · Equities · 

U.S. auto stocks have enjoyed a meaningful bounce in the past month driven by optimism that a surge in replacement demand for vehicles damaged in the hurricanes that hit the U.S. will remove key overhangs on the industry.



 

U.S. – Dissecting U.S. Inflation & Wages: Not As Bond Friendly As Perceived – October 5, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

Inflation has been a hot topic among investors and FOMC members during this entire business cycle.



 

Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 29, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shifting trends in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields could create near-term capital market turbulence.



 

Equities – U.S. Air Freight & Logistics Stocks: Poised To Deliver – September 28, 2017
 · Equities · 

Despite a recovery in global trade and a corresponding boom in freight demand, air freight & logistics stocks have struggled to sustain outperformance in the past year.



 

Webcast – Politics Vs Economics And Regional Equity Positioning (7min:58sec) – September 27, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest regional equity outlook and recommendations



 

China – Reserve Currency Status: Can China Fake It ‘til It Makes It? – September 26, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

U.S. dollar weakness, an improving balance of payments and a solid domestic economy have all provided support for the Chinese yuan this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 22, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Cyclical prospects for the global stock/bond ratio will remain upbeat until the massive gap between interest rates and nominal GDP growth closes meaningfully.



 

Regional Equities (Quarterly) – September 21, 2017
 · Equities · 

There has been a significant divergence in relative performance of regional equities recently because of U.S. dollar weakness.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 15, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk appetite measures confirm that investors have become optimistic, but financial stress gauges are still upbeat.



 

Theme – Market Impact If The U.S. Dollar Melts – September 14, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon. In the current environment of solid growth and easy monetary policy, it will take some combination of economically-damaging political turmoil, decisively higher bond yields and/or a material breakdown in the U.S. dollar to threaten equities.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – September 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon.



 

Equities – U.S. Biotechnology Stocks: Upleg Has Room To Run Further – September 14, 2017
 · Equities · 

After lagging for the better part of the past two years, U.S. biotechnology stocks have enjoyed a sharp reversal in relative performance in recent months.



 

Equities – Hong Kong Equities: Property Market Risks Loom Large – September 12, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · 

Hong Kong property prices have been inflated by extremely low interest rates well beyond any reasonable valuation.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – September 8, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-term turbulence in risk assets may persist given the tense political and geopolitical backdrop.



 

Emerging Market Equities Report – September, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

EM equities have outperformed recently: should global multi-asset investors join the party?



 

Webcast – Geopolitical Jitters: De-Risking Not Yet Warranted (6min:36sec) – September 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses asset allocation and investment strategy amidst the challenging political/policy backdrop.



 

Asset Allocation Report – September 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

An essentially quiet summer season (Northern Hemisphere) in capital markets has given way to renewed



 

Equities – U.S. Aerospace & Defense Stocks: In Rarified Air – August 31, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. aerospace & defense stocks have enjoyed a significant relative upleg since the… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 25, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global stock/bond ratio faces some near-run challenges, but investors should stay positioned… Continue



 

Webcast – Positioning In An Expensive U.S. Market (11min:52sec) – August 23, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). August 23 after 2:00… Continue



 

U.S. Equity Sectors Report – August 22, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports In recent weeks, stocks have been buffeted by geopolitical tensions, political uncertainties in… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 18, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Political tensions remain elevated and could hold back risk assets further in the… Continue



 

Equities – FANGs: The New Nifty 50? – August 17, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Today’s report continues our work on the FANG stocks. We compare the runup… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – August 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Market participants normally desire a solid economy, pro-growth policies, stability and predictability. President… Continue



 

Webcast – Asia Ex-Japan: Can Export Growth Trump Geopolitical Tensions? (5min:11sec) – August 16, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). August 16 after 2:00… Continue



 

Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – August 15, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Tensions with North Korea have weighed on global risk assets and Asian Ex-Japan… Continue



 

Equities – German Equities: Don’t Sweat The Euro – August 10, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The German equity market has disappointed over the past two months after a… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – August 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Many investors fear that the bull market in risk assets is in increasing… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – July 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global macro backdrop remains favorable for equities and other risk assets, while… Continue



 

Webcast – Ten Reasons To Own U.S. Bank Stocks (11min:16sec) – August 2, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). August 2 after 2:00… Continue



 

Equities – Ten Reasons To Own U.S. Bank Stocks – August 1, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports To say that the aftermath of the financial crisis has not been kind… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 28, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The cyclical backdrop remains positive for equities and mildly negative for bonds. The… Continue



 

Webcast – Gauging U.S. Corporate Sector Financial Health (7min:22sec) – July 26, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). July 26 after… Continue



 

Equities – Ten Facts And Misunderstandings About U.S. Corporate Sector Financial Health – July 25, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The rise in U.S. corporate debt this cycle has been a consistent topic… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 21, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Recent currency strength may delay/mute the move by non-U.S. central banks to become… Continue



 

Theme – Yield Curve: Don’t Fear The Flattener, Fear The Steepener – July 20, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors have grown accustomed to viewing a flattening yield curve as a bad… Continue



 

China – China’s Political Transition: “Core” Strength Or Institutional Resilience? – July 18, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Sometime later this year, most of China’s top political leaders will be replaced… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 14, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Reduce bonds to maximum underweight within a multi-asset portfolio, while boosting cash to… Continue



 

Equities – Sifting Through The Rubble Of The Retail Apocalypse – July 13, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The stocks of some brick-and-mortar retailers have reached the point of maximum pessimism…. Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 7, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Central bank rhetoric has hardened, sowing the seeds for higher bond yields since… Continue



 

China – China’s Technology Sector Has Gone BAT-ty – July 6, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Chinese technology stocks have massively outperformed the country benchmark this year. The FANG… Continue



 

Webcast – The Monetary Message (8min:59sec) – July 5, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). July 5 after… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – July 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A bumpy path is likely in the near term, but continue to overweight… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – June 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Maintain a mild pro-growth cyclical bias favoring equities over bonds, but expect near-term… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – When China And Commodities Falter, Which EM Assets Benefit? – June 29, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A likely 20% decline in the broad commodity price indexes and/or a meaningful… Continue



 

Webcast – FANGs, BATs, And The Outlook For The Tech Sector (12min:37sec) – June 28, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). June 28 after 2:00… Continue



 

Equities – Japanese Equities: Not As Cheap As They Appear – June 27, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Valuations alone do not justify an overweight stance on Japanese equities on a… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 23, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. economic surprise index is at a trough, whereas the euro area… Continue



 

Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – June 22, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports An increased number of central banks are feeling pressure to capitulate from an… Continue



 

Webcast – The Equity Market Rotation Lure (8min:06sec) – June 21, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 21 after… Continue



 

Equities – Will U.S. Tech Stocks Get De-FANGed? – June 20, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Technology stocks were due for a digestion phase following their strong outperformance this… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 16, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors continue to bet that the Fed will not raise rates much higher… Continue



 

South Africa Report – June 15, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The widely-followed Composite Business Cycle Indicator’s improvement only reflects better external conditions, and… Continue



 

Regional Equities (Quarterly) – June 15, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We remain constructive about the outlook for global equities, expecting prices to rise… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 9, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Politics dominate the headlines, but improving corporate profits bode well for the global… Continue



 

Webcast – It’s The Economy… (8min:44sec) – June 7, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 7 after… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – June 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Some bumps are likely in the near run, but the fundamentals point to… Continue



 

Equities – U.S. Semiconductor Stocks: Will The Good Times Last? – June 1, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. semiconductor stocks are relatively overbought and vulnerable to near-term profit-taking. However, the… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 26, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Prospects remain positive for the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon,… Continue



 

Long-Term Returns Report – May 25, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Real returns on balanced portfolios will be low in the coming decade, on… Continue



 

Latam Report – Four Questions – May 23, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s impending housing market slowdown will weigh on commodity prices and Latam growth… Continue



 

Equities – U.S. Auto Stocks: Are Profits About To Get Wiped Out? – May 23, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A growing supply of used vehicles and tightening lending standards on auto loans… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 19, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. political risks have increased and could trigger a risk-off phase. Equity leadership… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – May 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Chinese economy is starting to downshift, while investors are paring back their… Continue



 

Webcast – The Outlook For EM Equity And Debt (6min:30sec) – May 17, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsClick here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 17 after 2:00 pm… Continue



 

Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – May 16, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 12, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Near-run concerns aside, the 6-12 month outlook for the global stock/bond ratio is… Continue



 

Webcast – A Political Bullet Dodged (10min:29sec) – May 10, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 10 after 2:00… Continue



 

Emerging Market Equities Report – May 9, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – May 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Expect further choppiness in the near term, but economic and policy conditions favor… Continue



 

Equities – U.S. Household Durable Stocks: From De-Rating To Re-Rating – April 27, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The U.S. housing recovery has further to run. Remain overweight household durable stocks… Continue



 

Webcast – Politics, Politics And Markets: Near-Term Outlook (8min:24sec) – April 26, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). April 26 after… Continue



 

Equities – A Strategist’s Guide To Using Earnings Estimates – April 25, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Analysts’ earnings estimates are almost always too optimistic, but they are still useful… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 21, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The current correction phase in risk assets will persist but we do not… Continue



 

Geopolitics – The Likely Market Impact Of The French Elections – April 20, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The most market-friendly outcome in Sunday’s French election would be if Macron and… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – India: Structural Reforms And Roadblocks – April 18, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports India’s structural reform agenda remains on track, and should benefit from Prime Minister… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – April 13, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The recent risk-off phase for equities should persist given still-stretched technical conditions and… Continue



 

U.S. Equity Sectors Report – April 11, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual sector (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – April 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A correction/consolidation phase for risk assets may prevail in the near term, but… Continue



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part III): Regional Equities & Real Estate – April 6, 2017
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Several regional real estate markets did not suffer inthe Great Recession and have… Continue



 

China – Three Trackers For A Multispeed Economy – April 6, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We introduce a scaled-back version of the MRB China Economic Activity Indicator that… Continue



 

Webcast – Candidates For A Mania (12min:57sec) – April 5, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). April 5 after 2:00… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 31, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Some caution is still warranted in the near run, given heightened political tensions… Continue



 

Equities – Implications Of Not Repealing Obamacare – March 30, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The failure of the Obamacare repeal bill creates uncertainty for the rest of… Continue



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – March 30, 2017
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Many aspects of financial bubbles are unpredictable, especially the degree of speculation. However,… Continue



 

Webcast – To Rotate Or Not To Rotate (9min:10sec) – March 29, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 29 after… Continue



 

Equities – 10 Questions For Asia Ex-Japan Investors – March 28, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports 1. Will the global economic rebound continue? 2. Will the yuan be devalued… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 24, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The difficulty of legislating large policy changes in Washington is becoming apparent, setting… Continue



 

Regional Equities Report – March 23, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports It is too soon to rotate on a broad basis out of the… Continue



 

Webcast – EM Dollar Debt And Mexico: Overweight Now, Diverge Later (9min:26sec) – March 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 22 after… Continue



 

Equities – U.S. Machinery Stocks: Will Fundamentals Matter? – March 21, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors are betting on a large recovery in the relative earnings of machinery… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Tequila Sunrise: Upgrade Mexico – March 21, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Firming U.S. non-oil imports will boost Mexican growth momentum, narrow the current account… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 17, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are vulnerable to a correction in the near term, following recent… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – March 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global economic expansion is likely to again become less synchronized as the… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – March 10, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global economic backdrop is brighter than has been the case for several… Continue



 

Webcast – Brightening EM Equity Outlook, But With A Caveat (5min:55sec) – March 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). March 8 after… Continue



 

Equities – What’s Bothering U.S. Energy Stocks? – March 7, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Downside risks to oil prices are increasing. Remain underweight the energy sector within… Continue



 

Emerging Market Equities Report – March 7, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – March 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Continue to overweight equities versus bonds on a 6-12 month horizon, although risks… Continue



 

Emerging Markets – Eastern Europe: A High Beta Play On The Euro Area Recovery? – March 2, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Idiosyncratic factors have lowered the region’s beta to the euro area economy, and… Continue



 

Canada – Canada Finally Faces Its Challenges – February 28, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Canadian economy has weathered the commodity fallout reasonably well, and growth conditions… Continue



 

Equities – Euro Area Bank Stocks (Part II): Sifting Through The Opportunities – February 28, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There are significant disparities in equity earnings and valuation fundamentals across the major… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – February 24, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The MRB U.S. Recession Checklist Indicator remains at a low level. We are… Continue



 

Equities – Is Trump Good Or Bad For U.S. Tech Stocks? – February 23, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports It is too early to judge whether the Trump administration’s policies regarding immigration,… Continue



 

Webcast – Euro Area Banks: Still Room To Run, But… (6min:26sec) – February 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 22 after… Continue



 

Equities – Euro Area Banks (Part I): Still Room To Run, But… – February 21, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Euro area banks offer significant upside potential, but current conditions warrant only a… Continue



 

Strategic Trader Report – February 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports U.S. high-yield corporate bonds will still generate positive absolute returns, but much of… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – February 17, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global trade is gradually recovering, which will help sustain the cyclical uptrend in… Continue



 

Asia Ex-Japan Equities Report – February 16, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Webcast – Global Metal & Mining Stocks: The Risks Of A Correction Are Rising (8min:37sec) – February 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 15 after… Continue



 

Equities – Global Metal & Mining Stocks: The Risks Of A Correction Are Rising – February 14, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The rally in commodity prices will soon hit a wall as China’s demand… Continue



 

Webcast – Policy Uncertainty Amidst Improving Growth (9min:27sec) – February 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 8 after… Continue



 

South Africa Report – February 7, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A downturn in China’s housing cycle will dent Chinese demand for primary goods… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – February 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Favorable economic tailwinds warrant staying cyclically overweight equities versus bonds in a global… Continue



 

Webcast – More Earnings Torque Needed To Warrant A Full-On Cyclical Tilt (11min:41sec) – February 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). Frebruary 1 after 2:00… Continue



 

Global Equity Sectors Report – January 31, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual sector (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 27, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The recent consolidation phase may be ending. Maintain a moderately pro-growth investment stance…. Continue



 

Equities – Japanese Banks: Reflation And Re-Rating Play – January 24, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Japanese banks are poised to re-rate if the global economic backdrop continues to… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 20, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The pause in the dollar, bond yields, and equity & corporate bond prices… Continue



 

Strategic Trader Report – January 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global financial markets, particularly in the U.S., got a bit ahead of themselves… Continue



 

Emerging Market Equities Report – January 19, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

China – Can China Tolerate Higher Interest Rates? – January 17, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Chinese interest rates are likely to drift higher over the next 12 months,… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 13, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Maintain a mildly pro-growth investment stance, but be prepared for a further near-run… Continue



 

U.S. – Risks And Opportunities If The U.S. Equity Market Corrects – January 12, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The post-election rally in the stock/bond ratio is extended and overdue for a… Continue



 

Webcast – MRB’s Key Themes: A Roadmap For Investors (8min:05sec) – January 11, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 11 after 2:00… Continue



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) –