commodities


 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Correction, But Not (Yet) A Bear Market – April 19, 2024
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Risk asset markets will remain under pressure until the Treasury market calms.



 

Commodities – Gold Prices: A Perfect Storm – April 19, 2024
 · Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

China – Earnings Are Lagging The Economy – April 11, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

In the face of near-universal bearishness among the chattering classes overseas about its economic prospects…



 

Webcast – Lots Of Good News, Much Is Discounted – (13min:30sec) – April 9, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and the implications for global asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Spike For The Punchbowl? – April 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed appears committed to cutting interest rates in the months ahead, despite a U.S. economy that is operating and growing above potential…



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops On Long Oil And Go Long Energy Trades – April 5, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe initiated a long crude oil position early this year (currently up 12%) in… Continue



 

Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening A Stop And Closing One Position – March 15, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some positioning changes in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN STOPS –… Continue



 

China – CSI 300 Stocks Are Stirring – March 7, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Although the U.S. stock market continues to outperform all its foreign competitors, including China, this performance has been driven by the extraordinary gains of a handful of mega-cap stocks that carry significant valuation risk.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Time To Diversify – March 5, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The economic and policy environment remains supportive of pro-growth investments, but the rally is not without risks.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…



 

China – Defibrillator Applied To Equities, Again – February 8, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese policymakers have once again applied the defibrillator to stock market sentiment.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…



 

Absolute Return Strategy – From “Soft Landing” To “No Landing” – January 18, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

The equity and bond market are both priced for a Goldilocks U.S. economic outcome that is unlikely to persist as the year progresses.



 

Webinar – Canada’s Housing Crisis & Impact For Investors – (49min:00sec) – January 17, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist, has made headlines in Canada by expressing MRB’s view on Canadian housing, the BoC and implications for domestic investors.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tighten Stops On A Winner, And Adding A New Position – January 12, 2024
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe are tightening the stop on our winning long natural gas position and initiating… Continue



 

China – Reform Chatter Fails To Inspire Investors (So Far) – January 11, 2024
 · Emerging Markets · 

Two recent events have raised the prospect that Chinese policymakers might be inclined to bite the bullet on significant structural reform.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
 · Asset Allocation · 

After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.



 

MRB TradeBook – Adding Some New Positions – January 5, 2024
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsFinancial markets have started the year with a continued shift favoring laggard assets, which… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – 2024: More Pivots Ahead – December 22, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase is stretched and due for a pause. However, a return to risk-off is unlikely until bond yields resume rising, which is still some ways off.



 

MRB TradeBook – Booking A Profit, And Opening A New Position And New Shadow Trade – December 22, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe booked profits on one equity pair trade related to our Japanese exposure, and… Continue



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.



 

2024 Absolute Return Outlook – Focus On The Tails – December 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

2023 has turned out to be a rollercoaster for financial asset markets, with investors flipflopping on the recession call and outlook for policy rates.



 

2024 China Outlook – Steady Growth Ahead – December 7, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Although few headlines in the financial media reflect this, 2023 was a year of solid, if patchy, economic growth momentum in China, which is closing out well ahead of mid-year consensus expectations.



 

2024 Asset Allocation Outlook – A Maturing Cycle, But The End Is Not Yet Nigh – December 1, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

A global or U.S. recession is not yet in the cards for 2024, although the lifespan of the economic expansion is inevitably shortening.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Wishful Thinking – November 24, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, supported by the easing in DM government bond yields, hopes for lower policy rates in 2024 and ongoing uptrend in corporate earnings.



 

Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.



 

Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.



 

China – Growth: Half-Full, Or Half-Empty? – November 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese household consumption is the new version of the analogy of the glass being half full or empty.



 

Webcast – A Late-Stage Market Calming – (12min:51sec) – November 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation over the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Reprieve Before The Endgame – November 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The near-run backdrop has improved as developed market bonds have calmed after a vicious sell off on hopes that easier monetary policy looms in 2024.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bullish And Bearish Wild Cards – October 27, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Developments in the Middle East may yet provide support to the bond market if it were to backlash onto the global economy…



 

Commodities – Modestly Higher Crude Oil Prices Ahead – October 27, 2023
 · Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

Webinar – The Timeline Is Shortening – (67min:04sec) – October 25, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Greater Uncertainty, But The World Economy Remains Resilient – October 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near run is fraught with uncertainty given geopolitical events, although our judgement at this time is that the global economic expansion should roll on.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – October 13, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe added some long energy positions in July based on our expectation that the… Continue



 

China – Recovery Steps Up A Notch – October 12, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

What will it take for foreign investors to shake off their bearishness on Chinese assets?



 

Webcast – Geopolitics Adds Another Risk To Markets – (10min:17sec) – October 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Timeline Is Shortening – October 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment and economic cycles are at risk of expiring unless global bond markets soon calm.



 

MRB TradeBook – Mini Replay Of 2022 – October 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe are making some changes to the MRB TradeBook in response to the recent… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rising Bond Yields Versus Wider Cracks In The Weak Links – September 29, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain bond-bearish with risk asset markets on downgrade alert.



 

Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
 · Equities · 

Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…



 

Foreign Exchange – An Oil-Neutral Bet Levered To Europe: Long NOK/Short CAD – September 26, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone have decoupled from the rebound in oil prices in recent months.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.



 

Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Canada – Housing: Sliding Down The Slippery Slope Of Hope – September 8, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · 

A massive Canadian housing bubble has been inflated in response to more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.



 

China – Higher Equity Prices, Not Home Prices – September 7, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Policymakers have followed through on the guidance provided by July’s Politburo meeting with a raft of measures designed to improve investor sentiment and control the risks arising from the recession in the housing market.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.



 

Webcast – Hopes Dashed By Lack Of A China Property Bailout – (5min:45sec) – August 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani ran through some recent developments in China which have triggered a material market reaction.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.



 

China – Capital Inflows Resume, Despite Bearish Narratives – August 10, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

While some investors have started hyperventilating about the disappearance of “housing is for living in, not for speculating” mantra from the Politburo’s policy discourse…



 

Webcast – Gold Bulls: Beware Higher Real Bond Yields – (6min:41sec) – August 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, foreign exchange strategist Santiago Espinosa discusses MRB’s outlook for gold prices in the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.



 

Commodities – Just Another Short-Lived Rally For Gold – July 26, 2023
 · Commodities · 

Gold prices have rebounded modestly this month, and briefly neared the top end of their post-pandemic trading range…



 

Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.



 

MRB TradeBook – Long Energy And Japanese Financials – July 14, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports



 

China – Undervalued And Unloved, But Undeniably Growing – July 13, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

Second-quarter earnings results are about to start rolling in, with the large banks dominating the early phase of the reporting period.



 

Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Risk-On Until Bond Yields Breakout – July 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks and investors have begun capitulating closer to our view that the cost of capital has not yet reached destabilizing levels.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…



 

Webcast – China: Asset Prices Stall, The Economy Advances – (7min:40sec) – June 21, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Despite a fog of heavily negative sentiment surrounding Chinese assets, economic momentum is advancing steadily.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.



 

Commodities – Oil Prices: What A Difference A Year Makes – June 9, 2023
 · Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsEarly in 2022, the world faced a bleak outlook for energy, as the war… Continue



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Mixed Signals = Overweight On Cash – June 2, 2023
Asset Allocation · 

Markets are providing decidedly mixed signals about the economic outlook, highlighting investor uncertainty.



 

Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.



 

Webinar – Investing In EM: China? India? Or Neither? – (59min:17sec) – April 26, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Webinar featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing the outlook for EM investing.



 

MRB TradeBook – Taking Profits On Short Oil – April 14, 2023
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThere is one change to the MRB TradeBook this week: CLOSED – Short Brent… Continue



 

Webcast – Rate-Cut Optimism Is Excessive – (10min:58sec) – April 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of capital markets in the year ahead and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Count On A Friendly Fed – April 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global equities, G7 government bonds, global corporate bonds and even cryptocurrencies have posted healthy gains over the past month, despite the banking sector panic that erupted beginning with the closing of Silicon Valley Bank on March 9.



 

China – A “New” China: Growth Without Stimulus, Exports Or Housing – April 6, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

China’s reopening and economic recovery is finally observable in the hard economic data, rather than only from surveys.



 

Regional Equities – Late-Cycle Positioning – March 30, 2023
 · Equities · 

Equity prices have been under pressure in recent weeks, but we expect the banking sector stresses to soon die down and for the global economic expansion to continue at a moderate pace.



 

Theme – Making Money During China’s Demographic Decline – March 21, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Themes · 

China’s official population count for 2022 was published in January and showed 9.6m births, outweighed by 10.4m deaths.



 

China – Surveys Show Recovery, Hard Data Will Follow – March 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

“Soft” data from surveys are showing China’s robust recovery is underway, but the usual seasonal distortions in hard data make it difficult to calibrate the implications for overall economic momentum for the time being.



 

Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Hold The Whip Hand – March 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy may be firming, but good economic news is now bad news for bonds, and in turn, risk assets.



 

Foreign Exchange – Gold Or Cryptos: Which One Is More Appealing? – February 21, 2023
 · Foreign Exchange · 

The pause in bond yields late last year encouraged global equity investors to embrace risk-on across the board…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Markets Are Still Betting On 2% Inflation – February 17, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The tactical risk-on phase should persist until DM government bond yields break out on the upside.



 

Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Does The Fed Really, Really Mean It? – February 10, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth will improve, particularly in the euro area and Asia.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.



 

Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue



 

China – Services Rebound, Broader Consumption Should Follow – February 9, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

The traditional travel boom during the Lunar New Year holiday period took place in January…



 

Webcast – Heed Cyclical Realities – (11min:53sec) – February 7, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.



 

Commodities – Upgrade As Headwinds Fade – February 3, 2023
Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsWe are upgrading commodities to neutral as China and the euro area regain economic… Continue



 

Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2022 Review – January 24, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Corporations Are Profitable And Still Want To Hire – January 20, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a further period of risk-on.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.



 

Webcast – Don’t Worry, Be Happy? At Least For Now – (11min:23sec) – January 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s asset allocation recommendations and the outlook for investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating An Unusual Cycle – January 6, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic, policy and capital markets landscape remains unusual by any historical standard, thereby complicating investment strategy.



 

China – Re-Opening Is Palpable, If Not Yet Measurable – January 5, 2023
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

High frequency data and anecdotal evidence suggest that Chinese workers and consumers are shaking off the tsunami of infections arising from the sudden abandonment of the COVID-zero policy.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing The Last Global Bond Yield Anchor – December 23, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Keep tight stops on risk-on positions, as DM government bond markets have become less supportive of late.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bond Bulls Are Doubling Down Again – December 9, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase will persist in the near run, aided by a decline in headline inflation and the pause in the cyclical uptrend in DM government bond yields.



 

MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – December 9, 2022
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  



 

2023 China Outlook – How Much Growth Will Reopening Deliver? – December 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

China’s COVID-zero response to the pandemic combined risky political assumptions, faulty epidemiology, and catastrophic economic consequences…



 

2023 Asset Allocation Outlook: Better Valuations, But Another Tough Year – December 2, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The key drivers of global capital markets in the first-half of the year ahead will be slow/slowing economic growth…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Soggy U.S. Dollar Helps – November 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase should persist in the near run, with the caveat being that government bond markets stay calm;



 

MRB TradeBook – Update On Risk-On Positioning – November 18, 2022
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  



 

Commodities – Buckle Your Seatbelts: The Oil Market Is Re-entering Another Period of Instability – November 18, 2022
Commodities · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports  



 

Long-Term Returns – Setting Realistic Expectations – November 17, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The long-term outlook for a balanced portfolio has improved following this year’s price declines…



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.



 

Webcast – Possible Year-End Rally, But No Turn In The Investment Cycle – (11min:31sec) – November 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Late Cycle Dynamics – November 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The Fed wrong-footed investors this week, with Chair Powell’s hawkish press conference comments overwhelming the more moderate policy statement.



 

China – No Imminent Reprieve – November 3, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Betting on an imminent relaxation of the COVID-zero policy may seem rational, given the latter’s economic costs and dubious public health benefit.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.



 

Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue



 

Webcast – Markets On Edge – (10min:10sec) – October 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation positioning.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Temporary Reprieve – October 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets are in payback mode after the huge prices gains in 2020-2021 as the earlier liquidity boom unwinds.



 

China – Baby Steps To Evolving COVID-Zero – October 6, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

It may still only be a baby step, and by global standards it is a barely perceptible one.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Beware Submerging Economies – September 30, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The heavily-indebted U.K. economy is one of the global weak links, and is now extremely vulnerable to higher borrowing costs.



 

Commodities – Oil Prices: From Shocks To Cyclical Analysis – September 30, 2022
Commodities · 

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Regional Equities – Bond Risks And Regional Positioning – September 29, 2022
 · Equities · 

Equities will continue to face headwinds in the near term, with economic growth slowing even as central banks are determined to push interest rates into restrictive territory.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Higher Interest Rates Curb Risk Taking – September 23, 2022
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are facing renewed selling pressure and will continue to do so… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Lots Of Risks, Limited Rewards – September 9, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is likely to remain highly challenging over the balance of this year.



 

China – Pragmatic Policy In Hibernation – September 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Deng Xiaoping, China’s paramount leader from 1978 until 1992, famously said “no matter if it is a white cat or a black cat, so long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat”



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Between A Rock And A Hard Place – September 2, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed will have room to pause its rate-hiking cycle by yearend, as U.S. headline inflation will steadily decelerate and the central bank will eventually want to see how its policy has impacted the economy.



 

Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices



 

Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy



 

Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
 · Themes · 

There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk-On For Now, But Only If Bonds Stay Calm – August 19, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A cooling in inflation after the spike in the past year will prolong the pause phase in government bond markets. This, in turn, will support equities and credit in the coming months.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Payback Versus Catching Up – August 12, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

As expected, U.S. inflation has rolled over and will decelerate in the coming months, which will boost the prospects for extending the global economic expansion.



 

Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.



 

Webcast – How Much Help Will Economic Stabilizers Provide? – (11min:53sec) – August 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the key drives of the capital market outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Self-Correcting Supports Kicking In – August 5, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

The global economy faces several challenges, but we reiterate that an economic recession is neither imminent nor inevitable, although growth will likely slow further in the near term.



 

China – COVID-Zero Implies Continuing Economic Pain – August 4, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Prospects for a strong reopening recovery in China are evaporating in the face of the authorities’ obstinate attachment to a COVID-zero policy



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Mixed Messages – July 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

“Pause #2” in the cyclical bond yield uptrend is well advanced, and further downside in yields from current levels should be limited.



 

Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
 · Themes · 

The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Tactical Versus Cyclical – July 22, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The ingredients needed to pause the risk-off environment are gelling, namely: a consolidation in government bond yields, weaker energy/commodity prices, and an easing in measured inflation expectations.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Stop-Start Economic World – July 15, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Recession fears are overstated, as employment conditions and corporate profitability remain in good shape in most developed market (DM) economies.



 

China – When Will Reopening Lift Earnings? – July 7, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

With signs of economic reopening, foreign investors have been piling back into Chinese stocks in recent weeks, having rushed for the exits in prior months during the peak of lockdowns.



 

Webcast – Will Self-Correcting Forces Persist? – (13min:06sec) – July 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate asset allocation positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Recession Or Resilience? – July 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Anxiety about the global growth outlook will persist in the near term, resulting in choppy capital market conditions and room for bond yields to retreat at least mildly further.



 

Commodities – Gold Over Crypto As Liquidity Boom Ends – June 28, 2022
 · Commodities · Foreign Exchange · 

Although gold and bitcoin have been promoted as hedges against inflation and fiat currency debasement, there is still no clear correlation in the performance of the two.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Watch – June 24, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The outlook for the next few years is not supportive for financial assets given the likelihood that inflation will prove sticky and hold well above central banks’ targets



 

MRB TradeBook Update – More Volatility – June 24, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.



 

Webcast – Chinese Lockdowns Creating Pent-up Demand – (8min:58sec) – June 15, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani examines the outlook for China’s economy and markets in the context of renewed lockdowns imposed on Beijing and Shanghai in recent days



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
 · Themes · 

One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.



 

China – The Stock Bounce Has Begun – June 8, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

A much-anticipated positive shift in sentiment towards Chinese stocks appears to have begun, supported by easier liquidity conditions



 

Webcast – The Growth-Inflation Tussle – (11min:45sec) – June 7, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Summer Churn – June 3, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect capital markets to remain choppy during the northern summer months against a backdrop of resilient economic growth



 

Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets



 

Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · Equities · 

The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.



 

Webcast – China: How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – (7min:47sec) – May 18, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for China’s economy and markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Coughing, Time For A Bond Pause – May 13, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical outlook remains bearish for bonds, but a temporary pause in the yield uptrend is probable.



 

Webcast – Fear And Loathing – (12min:10sec) – May 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Very Difficult Needle For The Fed To Thread – May 6, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Both stocks and bonds face hurdles as central banks step-up efforts to combat the biggest outbreak of inflation in four decades.



 

China – How Will Contradictory Policies Net Out? – May 5, 2022
 · Emerging Markets · 

Chinese stocks and its currency have been buffeted by the fallout from draconian lockdowns that have spread out from the major trade hubs of the country during the course of March and April.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue



 

Roundtable – Emerging Market Winners And Losers From The Russia/Ukraine War – (67min:04sec) – April 20, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Roundtable featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing some of the geopolitical considerations arising from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For A Pause – April 14, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positive on economic prospects for most of the world, which implies that the inflation uptrend will persist.



 

Webcast – The Lingering Threat From Bonds – (12min:33sec) – April 6, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and key asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Growling Bond Bear Is Dangerous – April 1, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investor attention has pivoted over the past few weeks from the war in Ukraine and back to the accelerated unwinding of global monetary accommodation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.



 

MRB TradeBook Update – March 11, 2022
Absolute Return · 

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Webcast – Looking Beyond The 0-1 Geopolitical Bet – (10min:42sec) – March 9, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and investment strategy for the next 6-12 months in the context of the Ukraine war.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Guarded Optimism – March 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Market performance in the short run will wax and wane with events in Ukraine, but the investment climate will remain challenging for some time.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Step Back: Temporary Or Lasting? – February 25, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We are standing pat in terms of our investment stance, while expecting the risk-off backdrop to continue for a while longer.



 

Commodities – Geopolitics Benefit Gold Prices, But Watch Real Yields – February 25, 2022
Commodities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – From Distorting To Reflective To Restrictive – February 18, 2022
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cyclically bearish on bonds, although yields could soon pause; conditions are becoming technically stretched and U.S. rate expectations have already ratcheted higher.



 

Commodities – Oil Prices Frustrate Fundamental Investors – February 18, 2022
Commodities · 

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Webcast – COVID Fades: The Impact Of Reopening – (9min:03sec) – February 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses what the unwinding of the pandemic means for the global economy, policy, and investment strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – End Of COVID And Free Money – February 10, 2022
Absolute Return ·  · 

The two themes that will be crucial in shaping the global macro environment this year are the fading of COVID as a meaningful restraint on global mobilit



 

Webcast – The Ebbing Liquidity Wave – (9min:33sec) – February 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations for the next 6-12 months highlight.



 

China – Limping Into The Tiger – February 8, 2022
Emerging Markets · 

Appropriately enough, as the world celebrates the lunar new year, both bravery and unpredictability are the Tiger’s hallmarks in the Chinese zodiac.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Turning Tide – February 4, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global investors have ridden a wave of liquidity over the past two years that is slowly beginning to turn.



 

Webcast – As Go Bonds, So Will Go Risk Assets – (8min:35sec) – January 12, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended global multi-asset positioning.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It’s All About Bonds – January 7, 2022
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets remain resilient and still have growth tailwinds, but face a clear threat in the year ahead as global interest rates will finally shift meaningfully higher.



 

Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.



 

Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.



 

Webcast – Oil Supply Shortage Will Disappear In 2022 – (8min:27sec) – December 9, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses some issues relating to oil demand, supply and price expectations.



 

China – The Coming Consumption/Policy-Led Recovery – December 7, 2021
 · Emerging Markets · 

After an eventful year of widespread policy interventions that dragged growth from above-trend to its current below-trend pace, a modest policy stimulus is set to recalibrate China’s growth prospects in the months ahead.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Positioning For A Turbulent 2022 – December 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Next year is shaping up to be more challenging for investors, as central banks progressively unwind monetary accommodation in response to the ongoing economic recovery/expansion and elevated inflation readings.



 

Commodities – Oil Prices To Normalize In 2022 – November 30, 2021
 · Commodities · 

It may appear counter-intuitive, given how much unused capacity persists among the world’s oil producers, but the world is currently experiencing an oil shortage.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.



 

Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns



 

Long-Term Returns – Payback Looms – November 18, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate promises to be much more challenging over the next 10 years than in recent decades.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Threat Of A Gradual Monetary Accommodation Unwind – November 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

A gradual unwinding of monetary accommodation poses little threat to the global economic recovery but could prove more disruptive for capital markets



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.



 

Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.



 

Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Moderating From Boom To Still Solid – October 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Global growth and inflation will both downshift over the next few months before stabilizing at faster rates than most investors expect.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.



 

Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue



 

Webcast – Transitioning From Maximum Growth And Policy Thrust – (9min:37sec) – September 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the shifting macro and policy backdrop and the implications for investment strategy and asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It Will Get Tougher From Here – September 3, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Two important shifts in the macro climate over the next 6-12 months point to lower investment returns and more painful corrections, which will challenge current trends in capital markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade Ahead – August 13, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Sentiment remains upbeat in the major economies despite ongoing angst about the COVID-19 Delta variant.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Transitioning From The Acceleration Phase – August 6, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The inherent contradictions in the price of risk assets and the level of real interest rates against a backdrop of an early-stage economic recovery argue against a full-bore pro-growth investment posture.



 

Momentum – MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator: Gauging Technical Conditions – July 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The MRB Cyclical Momentum Indicator (MRB CMI) helps investors understand which markets have the biggest technical downside risk as well as upside potential ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Sustaining The Unsustainable – July 2, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The basic narrative for capital markets remains generally positive for risk assets.



 

Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.



 

Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return · 

The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Beware Too Much Good News – June 4, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have already priced in a lot of good news, but there is good news still to come.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Breakouts And Breakdowns – May 21, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The mild risk-off phase should persist in the near run.



 

Webcast – Cyclical, Rather Than Secular Support For Commodities – (10min:17sec) – May 19, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for commodity prices based on current valuations and prospective demand conditions.



 

Commodities – Supercycle Narrative Is Off Base – May 18, 2021
 · Commodities · 

A new commodity supercycle is not underway, and investors should expect middling or worse commodity price performance in real terms on a multi-year horizon.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Bumps, But No Derailing – April 23, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic prospects are steadily improving, although investors should expect periodic minor setbacks until the pandemic truly recedes.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Key Is To Stay Open – April16, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk of a near-term correction in equities, due to overstretched technical conditions and already elevated earnings expectations, has diminished because the uptrend in Treasury yields has paused.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.



 

Webcast – A Consolidation Or Correction Phase Is Overdue – (12min:45sec) – April 7, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets on a 6-12 month horizon and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Capital Markets Begin Re-Aligning To Fundamentals – April 1, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The overbought global S/B ratio signals increasing risk of a near-term correction or consolidation phase, but underlying economic fundamentals remain quite positive.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Hitting A Fog Patch – March 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This week’s PMI flashes confirmed that the global expansion is both broadening and strengthening.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part III) – March 24, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part III of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.



 

Webcast – From Reflation To Growth – (11min:05sec) – March 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discuss the 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Into A More Challenging Phase For Risk Assets – March 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Having been bearish on government bonds, their current selloff does not alter our… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Some Bumps – February 26, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The bond market outlook is bearish, with few places left to hide to avoid total return losses in the coming year.



 

Roundtable – Key Issues For Asset Allocation In 2021 – February 25, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

The conventional playbook of an economic recovery and hyper-accommodative monetary/fiscal policy continues to underpin the bullish narrative on risk assets.



 

Asset Allocation – Which Inflation Hedges Are Appealing? – February 25, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

We have regularly noted that there is scope for medium term upside in the years ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Losing An Anchor – February 19, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in Treasury yields has spread abroad and has increased the odds of a correction in overbought risk asset markets.



 

Commodities – The Global Demand Recovery Alone Does Not Justify Recent Oil Price Gains – February 19, 2021
Commodities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – It’s Different This Time – February 12, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A synchronized global economic recovery will gradually develop this year and coincide with a weaker U.S. dollar, and warrant a broader rotation away from the U.S. market within a global equity portfolio.



 

Webcast – Running Hot- (11min:06sec) – February 10, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the capital markets outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended positioning within a global multi-asset portfolio.



 

Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part I) – February 9, 2021
 · Themes · 

This is Part I of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Best Of All Possible Worlds Is Priced – February 5, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

The tension between a pro-growth macro and policy outlook and overheated risk assets continues to intensify.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Waiting For Corporate Earnings To Catch Up – January 22, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A correction or consolidation phase for risk assets is probable, but the extremely supportive policy backdrop suggests it will more likely be a period of churning until near-run economic softness peters out.



 

Webcast – Why The Premium For Spot Delivery In An Oversupplied Oil Market?- (4min:52sec) – January 19, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani tackles the curious recent emergence of backwardation in the forward curves for crude oil.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Extrapolating Can Be Dangerous – January 15, 2021
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent stall in U.S. employment trends underscores the need for rapid vaccinations to clear the path to a self-reinforcing global economic expansion.



 

Webcast – Froth And Fundamentals – (10min:36sec) – January 13, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and highlights MRB’s current recommended positioning for multi-asset portfolios.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return ·  · 

This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Inevitable Test Of Investor Nerves – January 8, 2021
 · Asset Allocation · 

Risk assets are already discounting a very favorable multi-year macro outlook and are expensive based on historical metrics.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.



 

Webcast – 2021 Commodities Outlook: Demand Improves, What About Supply? – (8min:41sec) – December 16, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the growth of the global economy in 2021 will be far better than it was in 2020.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A High-Wire Act – December 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of our investment strategy, favoring a gradual rotation in holdings out of the U.S. (currency and equities).



 

Commodities – Industrial Metals: More Upside, But Barely Worth Chasing – December 11, 2020
Commodities · 

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Webcast – Outlook 2021: Guarding Against Exuberance – (12min:27sec) – December 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the 2021 outlook for multi-asset investing and appropriate positioning.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Outlook 2021: Rotation Or Bust – December 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Speculative fever has taken hold, with equities, credit, industrial metals prices and cryptocurrencies surging in the past month on optimism about the economic outlook following positive news on COVID-19 vaccines.



 

Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (12min:59sec) – December 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

MRB assists clients with on-demand questions which cover a wide range of issues and asset markets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Getting Overheated – November 27, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economy is not yet in a synchronized and durable expansion.



 

Commodities – Oil Demand Is Recovering, But The Massive Supply Overhang Will Persist – November 27, 2020
Commodities · 

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Webinar – The Great Equity & Currency Rotation – (89min:16sec) – November 18, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s special MRB Webinar, Phillip Colmar and Mehran Nakhjavani address the question of asset rotation and answer questions from clients.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Choppy Path To A Synchronized Economic Recovery – November 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have celebrated the mixed outcome of the U.S. election, but global growth momentum is set to wane in the near term as COVID-19 cases escalate in Europe and the U.S.



 

Long-Term Returns – Lower-For-Longer Real Portfolio Returns – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The cyclical economic outlook has brightened since the Spring as the depressing effects of COVID-19 diminish, but the long-run return prospects for multi-asset portfolios remain challenging.



 

Gold – Does The Gold Rally Still Have Legs? – October 28, 2020
 · Asset Class Reports · Commodities · 

Gold prices have recently been digesting their gains after this year’s substantial runup. While the macro backdrop remains generally constructive, the precious metal is still overbought and overvalued.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will Equity Markets Stay Resilient? – October 16, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The recent acceleration in COVID-19 infection rates is slowing the global economic rebound.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Coming Test Of Corporate Earnings – October 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The developing economic recovery favors equities over bonds on a multi-year basis, but the global S/B ratio has run ahead of fundamentals and is vulnerable to negative surprises.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Still A Stop-Start World – September 25, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The setback to the global economic recovery, primarily in the service sector, was to be expected, and somewhat frothy equity market sentiment is now deflating.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Small Crack, So Far – September 11, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautious on the near-run outlook, as the recovery in the global economy will have difficulty matching the elevated expectations discounted by equities and industrial commodities.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.



 

Webcast – Markets Now Testing Optimistic Expectations – (10min:59sec) – September 9, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended asset allocation strategy and positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Now Formally Asymmetric, Pro-Growth Fed – September 4, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic recoveries are inherently beneficial for pro-growth assets, especially given open-ended monetary accommodation.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Volatile Period Ahead – August 28, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

This month’s softening in U.S. consumer confidence is worrisome, and underscores that a self-reinforcing economic recovery is not yet assured. The same is generally true around the globe.



 

Commodidites – The Return Of Oil’s Unhappy Equilibrium – August 28, 2020
Commodities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Downplaying The Risks – August 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Equity investors are now implicitly betting on a rapid and smooth rebound in corporate earnings.



 

Commodities – Industrial Commodities: Don’t Hang The (Modest) Bull Case On China – August 14, 2020
Commodities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Tread Carefully, And Tactically – August 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Momentum, sentiment and policy can be crucial drivers of capital markets over a 3-6 month horizon, but ultimately fundamentals determine asset performance.



 

Commodities – The Complicated Task Of Valuing Gold – August 7, 2020
Commodities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – More On The Rotation Theme – July 31, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global equities are at risk of a consolidation or modest correction, as economic activity is unlikely to match the rebound in expectations due to renewed COVID-19 restrictions.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Reflationary Bridge Last Long Enough? – July 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The cyclical economic backdrop is gradually improving, although the U.S. will continue to stumble in the near term.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Anticipatory Or Reactive? – July 10, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A bumpy patch looms as economic disappointments are probable, especially in the U.S. where expectations have rebounded sharply and renewed lockdowns are now underway.



 

Webcast – COVID-19 Lingers As A Recovery Headwind – (8min:32sec) – July 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook and MRB’s recommended multi-asset positioning for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Step Function Recovery Process – July 2, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The resurgence of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. is a reminder that the global economic recovery process is likely to be choppy, uneven and more drawn out than many expect.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Stocks Lead, Will The Economy Follow? – June 26, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The post-March excitement in risk asset markets is set to run into the reality of a tough slog back to more normal economic conditions.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Reality Test – June 12, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity will remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for a long time. Thus, recent equity market optimism is at odds with the corporate profit outlook; stocks face a bumpy period in the coming months before renewed gains develop.



 

Webcast – Taking Selective Bets – (9min:52sec) – June 10, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Keep A Hold Of The Reins – June 5, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The recent strong rebound in risk assets and the global stock /bond ratio is likely to taper in the months ahead against a backdrop of a hesitant economic recovery and lingering health and political uncertainty.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Broadening Equity Rally, For Now – May 29, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The equity rally has spread beyond U.S. large-caps into lagging bourses and sectors.



 

Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Ignore Reopening Risks – May 1, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Trends in COVID-19 growth rates and key economic indicators, combined with aggressive policy support, augur positively for risk assets and the global S/B ratio, but much of the good news is already discounted.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Race To Re-Start – April 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Re-starting economic activity is going to be challenging in the near run, and there is a significant risk of disappointments if politicians/businesses move too quickly.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Baby Steps – April 17, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The next stage of the pandemic has started, with some of the early-responding countries restarting parts of their economies.



 

Commodities – Trump’s Oil Deal Is A Victory For China And Oil Consumers – April 17, 2020
Commodities · 

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Gold – Further Upside Ahead – April 9, 2020
Commodities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Follow The Policy Lead – April 3, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Policymakers are “all in” in attempting to overcome the health crisis and its economic consequences.



 

Webcast – Outlook For Oil And Petro-Bonds – (10min:01sec) – April 1, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Oil prices have crumbled in the face of both a demand shock and a supply shock. Widespread lock-downs in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have decimated oil demand, especially for transportation (and in particular, air transport).



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Triple Whammy – March 13, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis has finally hit Europe and the U.S., and global financial markets are now discounting a recession and significant deflation scare.



 

Commodities – Saudi Oil Price War: Starts With A Bang, But Will End With A Whimper – March 13, 2020
Commodities · 

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Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.



 

Webcast – Saudi Oil Price War: Starts With A Bang, But Will End With A Whimper – (8min:45sec) – March 11, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Webcast Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for the oil market in the wake of the Saudi/Russian oil price war and demand declines associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – It Is Still A Recession Call – March 6, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors should expect a bumpy path in the near term as COVID-19 spreads more deeply into the U.S. and Europe.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – No Catalyst Yet For A Bear Market – February 14, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The COVID-19 crisis is expected to peak within the next month or so, and to trigger only a minor and temporary dip in the global economy.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Looking Across The Valley, Again – February 7, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global manufacturing and trade have been showing clear signs of starting to recover, at least until the coronavirus hit.



 

Webcast – Another Test Of The Investment Cycle (9min:04sec) – February 5, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets in the coming 6-12 months and appropriate positioning in light of underlying fundamentals and the uncertain impact of the coronavirus.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – An Early-2020 Reality Check – January 31, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

The escalation of the coronavirus has put paid to complacency, at least for now.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · 

 Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Goldilocks For Now – January 24, 2020
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global economic activity is slowly firming, but is not likely to be sufficiently strong as to unnerve government bond markets over the next few months.



 

Commodities – Oil’s Painful, But Stimulative, Equilibrium – January 24, 2020
Commodities · 

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Webcast – Geopolitically-Driven Digestion Phase (8min:20sec) – January 8, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for capital markets in 2020, including the implications of the latest geopolitical crisis on investment strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Extrapolation Risk – January 7, 2020
 · Asset Allocation · 

Prior to the past week’s geopolitical stress, markets were increasingly vulnerable to extrapolation risk and excessive optimism about the economic outlook for the coming year.



 

Webcast – Exuberance Is Premature (10min:45sec) – December 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses three key issues for investment strategy and asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part III): Commodities & Global Luxury – December 10, 2019
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This report continues our thematic series on profiling asset manias and focuses on… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – A Slow And Modest Upturn Lies Ahead – December 6, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

While global growth should gradually firm next year, it will be insufficient to warrant a decisive risk-on investment posture.



 

Theme – Mania Profiling (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – November 20, 2019
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report is the first of a mini-series of reports that update our work on asset manias.



 

Webcast – Middling Growth Outlook Should Temper Optimism (10min:18sec) – November 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for global capital markets and appropriate investment strategy, following the release of the latest MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – No Recession, But Not Much Growth Ahead – November 1, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

We expect the economic expansion to continue, but there is little basis for concluding a robust rebound in activity and profits looms over the next year that would justify a decidedly pro-growth investment posture.



 

Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.



 

Webcast – Political Noise Testing Market Resilience (9min:16sec) – October 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast,Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment strategy outlook and asset allocation recommendations amidst the increasingly noisy political backdrop.



 

Canada – On Borrowed Time – October 8, 2019
 · Economics & Policy · 

The increasing imbalances and building vulnerabilities of the Canadian economy have been a regular theme in our research since the commodity Supercycle crested in 2013.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Navigating A Unique Cycle – October 4, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Investors need to navigate carefully given the late stage of the capital markets cycle, the slowing global economy and a precarious political landscape.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Absorbing Another Body Blow – September 20, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Better-than-expected U.S. growth and an upward creep in core inflation herald a pause in Fed easing.



 

Webcast – Oil Moves Back To Center Stage (11min:48sec) – September 18, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Makhjavani and Peter Perkins discuss key drivers of global capital markets including the recent disruption to Saudi production, as well as the recent sharp rise in bond yields.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Is Trump Blinking? – August 23, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

President Trump appears to have heard the warning that his trade policy risks undermining his re-election prospects.



 

Commodities – Mildly Softer Demand Still Hurts Oil Assets – August 23, 2019
Commodities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Fearing Fear – August 16, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Rising protectionism remains the main global economic threat.



 

Commodities – Gold Prices: Supported By Dovish Policy – August 16, 2019
Commodities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.



 

Webcast – Another Threat To Growth (9min:32sec) – August 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China and the implications for capital markets, within the context of broader asset allocation strategy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds And Stocks Are Set To Diverge – August 2, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment climate is poised to become more challenging, as hard as that may seem (especially following yesterday’s announcement that the U.S. will apply new tariffs on Chinese imports next month).



 

Theme – Where To Hide When The Bear Market Erupts – July 25, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

This has been an abnormal bull market in the global stock/bond ratio that will ultimately transition into an abnormal bear market.



 

Webcast – The Fed Alone Is Not Enough (9min:53sec) – July 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and appropriate asset allocation strategy.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.



 

Commodities – What To Make Of The Breakout In Gold Prices? – July 9, 2019
Commodities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Sorting The Signals From A Lot Of Noise – July 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Economic growth rather than monetary policy will determine the duration and vitality of the current investment cycle.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Policy Mistake, Or A Stitch In Time? – June 28, 2019
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A short-term fork in the road looms with the Trump/Xi meeting this weekend.



 

Webcast – Asset Allocation And The Trade Risk Premium (12min:08sec) – June 12, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the latest MRB Asset allocation recommendations and the lingering trade threat to global growth.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Trade Threat Testing Economic Resilience – June 7, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

It is still premature to forecast an economic recession, but trade risks have risen markedly.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – Will The Global Economy Prove Resilient? – May 30, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A firming in some U.S. and euro area business and consumer surveys this week were offset by signs of an escalation in the U.S./China trade war.



 

Commodities – Fear Drives Oil Price Gyrations: Supply Shortages Versus Faltering Demand – May, 30, 2019
Commodities · 

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Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
 · Themes · 

This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Bigger Trade Danger Comes Into View – May 24, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A less robust global economic backdrop and more significant trade tensions have increased the threat to risk assets compared with a year ago.



 

Commodities – Gold Prices: Still Sidelined – May 24, 2019
Commodities · 

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Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · 

The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.



 

Webcast – A Friendly Fed, If Not Trumped By Trade (8min:41sec) – May 8, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s recommended investment positioning for the next 6-12 months following the latest Asset Allocation Strategy report, as well as the potential renewed escalation of the U.S.-China trade battle.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Fed Is Still Friendly – May 3, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets have come almost full circle in the past seven months, with global equities having fully reversed the fourth-quarter collapse, U.S. investment-grade corporate spreads back at late-Q3 levels and oil prices up 50% from their lows.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry: Part V – April 12, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. and global ex-U.S. equity prices should hit new highs given our expectation that the tentative turnaround in global trade and manufacturing activity will gain momentum.



 

Commodities – U.S./Iran Spat Implies A Permanent Risk Premium For Oil Prices – April 12, 2019
Commodities · 

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Webcast – Signs Of An Economic Inflection Point (9min:18sec) – April 10, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s investment outlook and the implications for asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Tentative Economic Green Shoots – April 5, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

There are tentative economic green shoots starting to emerge which should lend further support to risk assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflation Top Up – March 22, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Fed added additional economic insurance this week, which will cap bond yields, but provide further fuel for risk asset prices.



 

Commodities – Oops, He Did It Again: Saudi Output Cuts Reinforce U.S. Oil Supremacy – March 22, 2019
Commodities · 

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Webcast – Policy Support For Risk Assets (7min:40sec) – March 13, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the key drivers of MRB’s 6-12 month outlook for capital markets and recommended asset allocation.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – More Punch For The Punchbowl – March 8, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

This week’s setback aside, risk assets have recovered strongly from their fourth-quarter selloff, reflecting both an unwinding of earlier excessive growth fears and policy support.



 

Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Pain Trade Persist? – February 8, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Global growth has softened, but key demand engines are in good shape.



 

Webcast – The Fed Leaves The Punchbowl (8min:16sec) – February 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and appropriate investment position, drawing upon the most recent MRB Asset Allocation Strategy report.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – And The Band Played On – February 1, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Any investor fears of an impending U.S. recession should recede further following this week’s signal by the Fed that monetary policy is effectively on hold for the foreseeable future.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Buy Or Sell? – January 18, 2019
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A significant equity market low likely occurred in late-December, but it is still premature to bet on a sustained rebound.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return ·  · 

This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.



 

Webcast – Excessive Pessimism Priced In (10min:32sec) – January 9, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses MRB’s latest asset allocation strategy, arguing that markets are discounting an overly bearish economic outlook in 2019.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Precarious Footing – January 4, 2019
 · Asset Allocation · 

Markets are discounting a pronounced further slowdown in global economic growth in 2019, with a significant probability of recession.



 

Webcast – Perspectives From MRB Strategists (22min:43sec) – January 3, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Warren C. Smith chats with various MRB strategists in our three offices, and examines the key investment issues that we expect will dominate the landscape in 2019.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It Is Either/Or – December 21, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The FOMC (and chair Powell) stumbled in its communication strategy this week.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Looking Into 2019 – December 14, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investor sentiment has soured by much more than the fundamentals warrant, i.e. recession fears are overblown.



 

Commodities – A Blah Outlook – December 14, 2018
Commodities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bell Has Not Yet Tolled – December 7, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The sharp sell-off in risk assets that began in early-September and escalated in early-October reflects a significant downgrading by investors of the economic outlook for 2019.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding Landmines – November 23, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Near-run cautiousness is warranted until some positive political developments lift sentiment.



 

WMS – Commodities – Oil Prices: Fear Still Rules The Roost – November 23, 2018
Commodities · Emerging Markets · 

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Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Realistic Expectations (9min:17sec) – November 21, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the coming decade, following the release of the MRB Long-Term Returns Report.



 

Long-Term Returns Report – Be Sober, But Not Pessimistic – November 15, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Setting long-run return expectations is a function of realistic economic forecasts and the current starting point.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Excessive Growth Anxiety – November 2, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Last month’s market reaction was largely overdone. That U.S. economic and earnings growth are in the process of peaking which goes without saying given that this year’s fiscal stimulus will fade in 2019.



 

Commodities – Oil: Has The Bullish Tide Turned? – October 30, 2018
 · Commodities · 

Bullish sentiment in speculative assets rarely vanishes into thin air. Rather, market narratives slowly buckle as a trickle of facts eventually turns into a tide of negative sentiment.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Reflective, Not Restrictive – October 19, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The equity market is at risk in the near run as investors grapple with the threat of rising interest rates and concerns about the economic outlook.



 

Webcast – Don’t Mention The War (10min:01sec) – October 17, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). October 17 after… Continue



 

Webcast – A Fresh Test For Investors (8min:45sec) – October 10, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s asset allocation recommendations.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Bond Bear Bites Again – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

The abrupt breakout in U.S. Treasury yields over the past week caught many investors by surprise and sent shockwaves through financial asset markets.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bond Bear Growls – October 5, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The breakout in U.S Treasury yields represents a fresh challenge to a global economy that has been resilient this year, thanks to ongoing policy support and still-positive cyclical dynamics.



 

Theme – A Secular Upshift In Inflation (Part II) – October 2, 2018
 · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the concluding part of a two-part MRB Theme Report analyzing the underlying shift in the trend of global consumer price inflation.



 

Emerging Markets – Are Commodity Prices Signalling An EM Equity Buy? – September 18, 2018
 · Commodities · Emerging Markets · 

Commodity prices and EM equities have generally been positively correlated, as cyclically-sensitive assets which are generally quoted in U.S. dollar terms.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Opposing Forces – September 14, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Once again, there are glimmers of hope on the trade front. A meaningful easing in tensions would signal that the risk-on backdrop in the U.S. will spread abroad.



 

WMS – Commodities – Oil Fundamentals No Drama Ahead – September 14, 2018
Commodities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Liquidity Fears Are Overdone – September 7, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Fears of a squeeze on global liquidity are increasing, as the Fed shrinks its balance sheet and continues its grad



 

Webcast – Gold Prices: Where To Next? (5min:11sec) – August 22, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar provides highlights from MRB’s latest research on gold.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Risk-On Or Risk-Off? – August 17, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The Turkish meltdown should not have an escalating domino effect on the EM world, nor on overall global economic activity.



 

Gold – More Heavy Than Precious – August 17, 2018
 · Commodities · 

Gold has weakened substantially over the past few months and broke below US$1200/oz this week.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Markets In Limbo – August 3, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets remain in limbo, with key equity, bond and currency benchmarks still largely range-bound.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Back From The Brink? – July 27, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There was a glimmer of hope this week that the U.S. will not push the world into a spiral of protectionism.



 

WMS – Commodities – Copper Had A Healthy Correction And Can Now Outperform – July 27, 2018
Commodities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Resilient Or Complacent? – July 20, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain cautiously optimistic that the global stock/bond ratio will move higher in the next 6-12 months



 

WMS – Commodities – Gold: More Weakness Ahead – July 20, 2018
Commodities · 

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WMS – Equities – Global Equities: Sturdier Beneath The Surface – July 20, 2018
Equities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – No Blinking So Far – July 13, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The trade war has not de-escalated. Thus, equity prices will remain at risk in the near run, and bond prices will stay supported.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Economic Resilience Last? – June 29, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There have been conflicting messages from global financial markets, underscoring the uncertain investment landscape.



 

WMS – Commodities – Oil Bulls Begging For Supply Constraints – June 29, 2018
 · Commodities · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Avoiding The Cliff – June 22, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

There have been few signs – so far – that the global business sector is retrenching in the face of increased protectionist tensions.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Into The Endgame – May 30, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · Themes · 

Global equities have swung wildly this year. Our base-case view is that recent selling pressure will prove to be a setback, rather than the start of a bear market.



 

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.



 

Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes · 

Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.



 

Webcast – The 2018 “EM Crisis” (6min:48sec) – May 23, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

While there is much chatter of an “EM Crisis”, we view the chances of a broad-based selloff being rather small at a time when the global growth backdrop for the EM world is still supportive.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More Churning, But The Cycle Remains Intact – May 11, 2018
 · Commodities · Equities · Fixed Income · Foreign Exchange · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

U.S. inflationary pressures continue to slowly build, and emergency-level interest rates outside of the U.S. are no longer warranted.



 

WMS – Equities – Global Equities: Winners And Losers From Higher Oil Prices – May 11, 2018
Commodities · Equities · 

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Webcast – Iran Risk Does Not Justify $75/bbl Oil (6min:40sec) – May 9, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In today’s Wednesday Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses some of the investment implications of President Trump’s decision yesterday to withdraw the United Stated from the multilateral JCPAO agreement.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Cash Is King – May 4, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The crosscurrents of a moderation in global growth momentum, combined with ongoing Fed rate hikes, rising U.S. inflation, and looming U.S. protectionist measures, portends continued churning in global capital markets in the near term.



 

Webcast – The Russia/Saudi Oil Alliance And Inflation Expectations (6min:53sec) – April 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Since 2014’s oil price crash, investors seem to have become fixated on oil prices as the driver of inflation expectations



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Many Moving (i.e. Conflicting) Parts – April 6, 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

A moderation in growth momentum, combined with additional Fed rate hikes and, more recently, the escalating trade battle between the U.S. and China, implies continuing market volatility and warrants near-term caution toward risk assets.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – More To Go – March 29, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Heightened geopolitical tensions and stock-specific woes in the tech sector will keep equity markets weak in the near run.



 

WMS – Commodities – Copper Is Vulnerable, Blame China – March 29, 2018
Commodities · Emerging Markets · 

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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Tug-Of-War – March 16, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rise in bond yields and equity prices is on temporary hold: growth momentum will slow a notch and protectionist concerns may keep some investors cautious, yet the cyclical buildup of inflation pressures will persist



 

WMS – Commodities – U.S. Oil Output SurgeThreatens Q2 Market Balance – March 16, 2018
Commodities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy – Choppiness Will Persist In The Near Term – March 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

Capital markets will continue to be in flux in the near term given uncertainty about the inflation and interest rate outlook as well as fresh policy risks, including the recent U.S. protectionist measures.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will The Fed Become Hemmed-In? – February 16, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Further near-run turbulence in risk asset markets is probable until bond yields plateau.



 

WMS – Commodities – The Boxed-In Oil Market Thesis Confirmed – February 16, 2018
Commodities · 

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U.S. Equities – Higher Volatility: It’s The Fundamentals – February 13, 2018
 · Equities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Volatility has reared its ugly head in the past two weeks, suddenly bolting… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Protecting Profits – February 5, 2018
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Two of the risk factors that we have been monitoring to time an… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 30, 2018
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes… Continue



 

Webcast – Commodities: Caution Warranted Despite Growth Spurt (5min:17sec) – January 24, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Commodity prices have been responding to the same signals of a synchronized global economic expansion that underpin our moderately constructive outlook for risk assets.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Into The Extrapolation Phase – January 19, 2018
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Investors are discounting positive earnings trends well into the future, but have not yet made a parallel adjustment to their interest rate expectations.



 

WMS – Commodities – Dead DUCs Won’t Stop The U.S. Oil Output Surge – January 19, 2018
Commodities · 

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Asset Allocation Strategy –Risk Assessment: It’s Still Too Soon To Bail – January 2018
 · Asset Allocation · 

The economic and policy outlook remains positive for risk assets and we remain moderately overweight equities versus government bonds in a multi-asset portfolio.



 

Charts – Industrial Metals: Fasten Your Seatbelts – January 2, 2018
 · Commodities · 

Industrial commodity prices ended 2017 strongly, buoyed by evidence of a synchronized global economic recovery.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.



 

Webcast – What’s In Store For 2018 (8min:45sec) – December 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins assesses the outlook for the macro backdrop and the implications for capital markets in 2018.



 

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Outlook For 2018 – December 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

Strong returns for most risk assets combined with the advanced age of the U.S. economic expansion have many investors wondering to what extent dangers are building going into 2018.



 

Asset Allocation – The Yield Curve, Recessions And Asset Allocation – December 1, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · Fixed Income · 

An inverted yield curve has a reasonable track-record as an economic signal and hence the curve should be closely monitored in setting investment strategy and risk exposure. However, as an asset allocation and timing tool, there are several considerations in interpreting it.



 

Charts – The Bearish Case For Gold – November 28, 2017
 · Commodities · 

MRB has been negative on gold since early this decade, regularly warning of the vulnerabilities and advising clients to limit exposure.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It All Comes Down To Inflation – November 24, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain near-run cautious on risk assets, but are still positive on the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon.



 

Webcast – OPEC Wins The War, Loses The Peace (8min:22sec) – November 22, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, “OPEC Wins The War, Loses The Peace”, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the outlook for the oil market and the likely outcome for OPEC’s November 30th meeting.



 

Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 10, 2017
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

A bond and equity correction looms as the inflation, policy and economic backdrop turns marginally less supportive. Moreover, high-yield corporate bond spreads have edged up lately, a potential warning sign for equities.



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part II): Asset Class Positioning – October 25, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes · 

This is the second MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle, which is one of our most popular thematic frameworks. Part I outlined our framework and where financial markets currently are within the investment cycle.



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – October 20, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Prospects for the three legs in the global economic stool – the U.S., euro area and China – remain upbeat.



 

WMS – Commodities – Copper And Iron Ore Diverge: Third Time, Unlucky? – October 20, 2017
Commodities · 

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Webcast – A Saudi Devaluation: No Longer Unthinkable (5min:35sec) – October 18, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani discusses the mounting risk of a Saudi currency devaluation.



 

Emerging Markets – Saudi Arabia Doubles Down – October 17, 2017
 · Commodities · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

The Saudi regime faces spiralling threats from a demographic time bomb that implies internal political instability along with hazardous cross-currents of economic policy risks.



 

Webcast – Boxed In – Oil Prices Will Be Range-Bound (7min:26sec) – September 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Mehran Nakhjavani digs into the economics of U.S. shale and finds an oil market hemmed in on all sides.



 

Commodities – A Boxed-In Oil Market – September 19, 2017
 · Commodities · 

Today’s report digs into the economics of U.S. shale and finds an oil market hemmed in on all sides



 

Theme – Market Impact If The U.S. Dollar Melts – September 14, 2017
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Foreign Exchange · Themes · 

The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon. In the current environment of solid growth and easy monetary policy, it will take some combination of economically-damaging political turmoil, decisively higher bond yields and/or a material breakdown in the U.S. dollar to threaten equities.



 

Absolute Return Strategy – September 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

The global equity bull market is maturing, but a macro catalyst to end the cycle is not yet on the horizon.



 

Webcast – Geopolitical Jitters: De-Risking Not Yet Warranted (6min:36sec) – September 6, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, MRB strategist Peter Perkins discusses asset allocation and investment strategy amidst the challenging political/policy backdrop.



 

Asset Allocation Report – September 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

An essentially quiet summer season (Northern Hemisphere) in capital markets has given way to renewed



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – August 25, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global stock/bond ratio faces some near-run challenges, but investors should stay positioned… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – August 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Market participants normally desire a solid economy, pro-growth policies, stability and predictability. President… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – August 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Many investors fear that the bull market in risk assets is in increasing… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – July 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The global macro backdrop remains favorable for equities and other risk assets, while… Continue



 

China – A Softer, Gentler Chinese Housing Bust – July 27, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s housing market has held up somewhat better than expected, but the national… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – July 7, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Central bank rhetoric has hardened, sowing the seeds for higher bond yields since… Continue



 

Webcast – The Monetary Message (8min:59sec) – July 5, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). July 5 after… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – July 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports A bumpy path is likely in the near term, but continue to overweight… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – June 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Maintain a mild pro-growth cyclical bias favoring equities over bonds, but expect near-term… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 16, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Investors continue to bet that the Fed will not raise rates much higher… Continue



 

Webcast – It’s The Economy… (8min:44sec) – June 7, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). June 7 after… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – June 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Some bumps are likely in the near run, but the fundamentals point to… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 26, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Prospects remain positive for the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon,… Continue



 

Long-Term Returns Report – May 25, 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Real returns on balanced portfolios will be low in the coming decade, on… Continue



 

Webcast – Who Matters Most For Oil Prices: The U.S. Or OPEC? (7min:18sec) – May 24, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 24 after 2:00… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – May 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Chinese economy is starting to downshift, while investors are paring back their… Continue



 

Webcast – The Outlook For EM Equity And Debt (6min:30sec) – May 17, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite ReportsClick here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 17 after 2:00 pm… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – May 12, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Near-run concerns aside, the 6-12 month outlook for the global stock/bond ratio is… Continue



 

Policy – Staggered Exit To The Great Monetary Experiment: Gauging Central Bank Pressures – May 30, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The Fed is well behind the growth curve and will continue its gradual… Continue



 

Webcast – A Political Bullet Dodged (10min:29sec) – May 10, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 10 after 2:00… Continue



 

Emerging Market Equities Report – May 9, 2017
 · Emerging Markets · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click on the links below to view each individual country (pdf format) MRB… Continue



 

Webcast – OPEC Can Have Its Cake, But Can’t Eat It (6min:17sec) – May 3, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). May 3 after 2:00… Continue



 

Commodities – OPEC Oracles And Oil Prices – May 2, 2017
 · Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The combined effect of lower reserve life, global warming and the rise of… Continue



 

Absolute Return Strategy – April 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The setback in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist over the… Continue



 

China – Three Trackers For A Multispeed Economy – April 6, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports We introduce a scaled-back version of the MRB China Economic Activity Indicator that… Continue



 

China – China Economy: The Revenge Of Rebalancing – March 9, 2017
 · Economics & Policy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Chinese investment growth is likely to slow in 2017, led by real estate… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – March 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Continue to overweight equities versus bonds on a 6-12 month horizon, although risks… Continue



 

Webcast – Global Metal & Mining Stocks: The Risks Of A Correction Are Rising (8min:37sec) – February 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 15 after… Continue



 

Equities – Global Metal & Mining Stocks: The Risks Of A Correction Are Rising – February 14, 2017
 · Equities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The rally in commodity prices will soon hit a wall as China’s demand… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – February 10, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The consolidation in risk asset prices may persist, given overextended technical conditions and… Continue



 

Webcast – Policy Uncertainty Amidst Improving Growth (9min:27sec) – February 8, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format, 5mb). February 8 after… Continue



 

Asset Allocation Report – February 2017
 · Asset Allocation · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Favorable economic tailwinds warrant staying cyclically overweight equities versus bonds in a global… Continue



 

Weekly Macro Strategy Report – January 27, 2017
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The recent consolidation phase may be ending. Maintain a moderately pro-growth investment stance…. Continue



 

Strategic Trader Report – January 2017
Absolute Return ·  · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Global financial markets, particularly in the U.S., got a bit ahead of themselves… Continue



 

Webcast – MRB’s Key Themes: A Roadmap For Investors (8min:05sec) – January 11, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Click here to download the full Webcast (zip format). January 11 after 2:00… Continue



 

Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – January 10, 2017
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Another sustained upleg in the global stock/bond ratio is underway. While the investment… Continue



 

Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle Update: A Fairly Unique Cycle – October 5, 2016
 · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The evolution of investor risk-taking has been extremely slow in recent years. This… Continue



 

China – China Economy: Prepare For A Rough Landing – August 3, 2016
 · Economics & Policy · Emerging Markets · 

 Add to Favorite Reports China’s property market looks set for a cyclical decline sometime in the next… Continue



 

Commodities – Oil Prices: Will The Sideways Churn End? – July 26, 2016
 · Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Significant oversupply will remain a feature of the oil market for the rest… Continue



 

Commodities – Has Shale Oil’s Comeback Started? – May 10, 2016
 · Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Last week’s pickup in drilling rigs employed in the U.S. Permian formation is… Continue



 

Commodities – Commodity Prices And Global Growth – March 15, 2016
 · Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Significant commodity exporters currently account for 18% of global GDP, while significant importers… Continue



 

Theme – Commodity Dominos: Update On The Fallout – November 3, 2015
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Although the decline in crude oil prices lagged other commodities, this was the… Continue



 

Commodities – Oil Prices: More Trendless Volatility – September 8, 2015
 · Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Oil prices are at the bottom end of what we expect will be… Continue



 

Theme – Commodity Fallout: Mapping The Indirect Dominos (Part III) – February 17, 2015
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Commodity prices have fallen below the point of “maximum reflation” for the global… Continue



 

Theme – Commodity Fallout: Mapping The Related Dominos (Part II) – February 3, 2015
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Many commodity-based economies are littered with imbalances, which are likely to come home… Continue



 

Theme – Commodity Fallout: Mapping The Direct Dominos (Part I) – January 27, 2015
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports MRB’s longstanding expectation for a supply-induced commodity bear market is well underway, making… Continue



 

Theme – Commodity Exporters: Finding The Weakest Links And The Survivors – December 2, 2014
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Some EM commodity producers have secular growth potential that outweighs the many headwinds… Continue



 

Commodities – Surplus Oil De-Risks The Global Recovery – September 9, 2014
 · Commodities · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Plentiful supply and anemic OECD demand growth imply a continued soft patch for… Continue



 

Theme – Peak Price, Not Peak Oil – November 26, 2013
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Oil is expensive by a variety of measures, which is a constraint on… Continue



 

Theme – Gold: Sub-$1000/oz Ahead – November 5, 2013
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Gold prices are likely to plunge below US$1000/oz over the next couple years… Continue



 

Theme – “Saudi America”: The New Sultans Of Swing? – May 14, 2013
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Oil prices have a natural ceiling and floor over the medium term. Technological… Continue



 

Theme – End Of The Commodity Boom (Part II) – October 2, 2012
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports The commodity boom has acted as a disinflationary drag for the aggregate global… Continue



 

Theme – End Of The Commodity Boom (Part I) – September 25, 2012
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports There have been several powerful and extended bull markets over the past two… Continue



 

Theme – Oil: Uncertain Demand Now, Uncertain Supply Later – September 11, 2012
 · Commodities · Themes · 

 Add to Favorite Reports Emerging market oil demand will likely grow at a steady 3% per annum… Continue