MacroResearchBoard

asset-allocation

Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bump On The “Road Toward 2%” – September 15, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Continue to favor stocks over bonds, although the upside for global equities should be modest if bond yields undergo another meaningful upleg as we expect.

Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Lethal, But Some Tiny Cracks – September 1, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Bond yields may stay capped for a while as a consequence of ongoing disinflation and cautious central banks.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.

Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Bonds Threaten Goldilocks – August 4, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The market has embraced the Goldilocks scenario of sturdy global growth, declining inflation and central bank interest rate cuts beginning in 2024.

Webcast – EM Debt: Solid Growth And Rate Cuts Sustain Outperformance – (8min:52sec) – August 2, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, Amr Abdel Khalek discusses the outlook for emerging market government bonds.

Weekly Macro Strategy – The U.S. Consumer Recession Has Been Deferred, Yet Again – July 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

In the near run, the combination of economic resilience and disinflation will support risk assets, and we remain positioned accordingly, with tight stops.

Emerging Markets Fixed Income – The Stars Align For EM Local-Currency Debt – July 27, 2023
 · Emerging Markets · Fixed Income · 

Emerging market (EM) growth will accelerate over the next 6-12 months, driven primarily by EM Asia.

Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
 · Themes · 

This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Yet Another (Short-Term) Reprieve – July 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for a tactical risk-on phase, albeit with tight stops.

Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.

Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”

Weekly Macro Strategy – Betwixt And Between – June 30, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The crosscurrents of resilient global economic activity yet easing DM headline inflation imply trading ranges in most asset markets…

Weekly Macro Strategy – Not Following The Script – June 23, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The global economic backdrop, particularly the strength in hiring intentions in the major economies…

Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Skip The Pause – June 9, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in bond markets since late-2022 and expectations of lower DM central bank policy rates down the road are starting to unravel in view of this week’s actions by the RBA and BoC.

Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Mixed Signals = Overweight On Cash – June 2, 2023
Asset Allocation · 

Markets are providing decidedly mixed signals about the economic outlook, highlighting investor uncertainty.

Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · Asset Allocation · 

Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Boom Or Bust, Or Both? – May 26, 2023
Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We continue to bet against a global recession, and do not expect DM policy rate cuts later this year.

Weekly Macro Strategy – It Isn’t Over – May 19, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The choppy tactical risk-on phase should persist over the summer.

Webcast – Focused On Selective Opportunities – (11min:46sec) – May 10, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.

Asset Allocation Strategy – Coping With Crosscurrents – May 5, 2023
 · Asset Allocation · 

The investment outlook is complicated by fundamental crosscurrents. U.S. recession fears linger, but hard data are consistent with a resilient rather than faltering economy.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Recession Angst Persists, But Is Still Premature – April 28, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

We remain positioned for risk-on from a tactical perspective. However, the rate-hiking cycle is not on the verge of reversing, in sharp contrast with forward rate expectations.

Webinar – Investing In EM: China? India? Or Neither? – (59min:17sec) – April 26, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars · 

Today’s MRB Webinar featured Mehran Nakhjavani and Amr Abdel Khalek discussing the outlook for EM investing.

Weekly Macro Strategy – U.S. Economic Prospects Dim, While The Euro Area And China Improve – April 21, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

The calming in government bond markets will allow the choppy risk-on phase to grind ahead.

Absolute Return Strategy – Extending A Late-Cycle Expansion – April 18, 2023
Absolute Return ·  · 

Central banks are pausing from their rate-hiking cycles well before sending their economies into recession, providing a reprieve and helping to extend the expansion.

Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Reprieve – April 14, 2023
 · Weekly Macro Strategy · 

Last month’s mini-panic is unwinding, to the benefit of risk assets.