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Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For The New Fat Tail U.S. Economy – November 20, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
U.S. equities, the dollar and Treasury yields have all risen sharply in response to better-than-expected U.S. economic data, and have received an additional boost from the election outcome.
Theme – Positioning For The New Fat Tail U.S. Economy – November 20, 2024
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
U.S. equities, the dollar and Treasury yields have all risen sharply in response to better-than-expected U.S. economic data, and have received an additional boost from the election outcome.
Webcast – Reflation: A Gift That Can’t Keep Giving Forever – (13min:11sec) – November 19, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns and appropriate investment strategy.
MRB TradeBook – Stop-Shorts Reminder And Two New Positions – November 15, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsU.S. assets have massively outperformed in the aftermath of the U.S. election and have… Continue
Long-Term Returns – Perpetual Reflation Is Unsustainable – November 14, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
The capital markets landscape is set to change markedly over the next decade, with the huge gap in recent performance between stocks and bonds set to narrow or even reverse.
MRB TradeBook – Protecting Profits – November 8, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThe outcome of the U.S. presidential election benefited several positions in the MRB TradeBook… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – The Return Of The Term Premium – October 31, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The term premium for U.S. Treasurys could be one of the most important investment issues over the next year…
Fixed Income – The Return Of The Term Premium – October 31, 2024
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The term premium for U.S. Treasurys could be one of the most important… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Update – October 25, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are several changes to positioning this week Closed Position: Long VIX Index Generic… Continue
Fixed Income – U.S. Corporate Bonds: Solid Fundamentals Will Keep Spreads Tight – October 21, 2024
· Fixed Income ·
U.S. corporate bonds have generated solid returns over the past year, boosted by narrower spreads and lower U.S. Treasury yields since their October 2023 peak.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Update – October 18, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are three changes to positioning this week: Closed Position: Long JPY/USD: The Japanese… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – October 11, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
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Fixed Income – U.S. Treasurys: Reality Bites Again – October 9, 2024
· Fixed Income ·
MRB has challenged the consensus on the Fed’s easing cycle, characterizing it as a dovish misstep, and that expectations for deep rate cuts through to the end of 2025 will not pan out.
MRB TradeBook – Changes To Positioning This Week – October 4, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Extending Goldilocks – September 26, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Global monetary conditions have not been restrictive as is generally believed, nor were they a credible recessionary threat for the U.S. and global economy.
MRB TradeBook – Booking A Profit – September 13, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsLong U.S. Aerospace and Defense Stocks Vs Consumer Discretionary: The exit point on this… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Sell The News – August 29, 2024
Absolute Return · · Fixed Income ·
FOMC members have essentially confirmed that September will be the start of the central bank’s rate-cutting cycle, which is something bond bulls have been long awaiting.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Asset Inflation Will Persist – August 23, 2024
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Risk-on should continue with DM central banks lowering rates while the global economy is already in decent shape and likely to improve.
MRB TradeBook – Closed Two Winning Positions – August 16, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are two changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: Closed Positions:… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Material Swings In Volatility – August 9, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
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MRB TradeBook – Risk-Off Triggers Higher Vol – August 5, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsSPECIAL NOTE: We warned in recent weeks that equity investors had become a bit… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Three New Positions And Tightening Some Stops – August 2, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are several changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: New Positions… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Housekeeping After This Week’s Equity Selloff – July 26, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are several changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week (charts 1… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Three Investment Themes – July 2, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
This report reviews three key long-term investment themes, including A.I. plays, beneficiaries of the global trade cycle, and areas where economic growth is likely to surprise either to the upside or downside.
MRB TradeBook – Adding Another Long Energy Position – June 28, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe added another long energy play to the MRB TradeBook this week: Long U.S…. Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – The End Is Not Nigh – June 7, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
While the catalyst for an end of the economic expansion is not yet in place, the investment landscape is likely to be choppy over the next 6-12 months…
MRB TradeBook – Bet On Japanese Financials – June 7, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThe stop-buy on long Japanese financials relative to global financial was triggered this week…. Continue
MRB TradeBook – One Big Winner, One Loser And One New Position – May 31, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN STOPS… Continue
Long-Term Returns – A Reckoning Is Inevitable – May 30, 2024
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns. This old saw is especially relevant as the macro drivers of strong capital market returns over most of the past 40 years no longer pertain.
Absolute Return Strategy – Fed’s Dovish Bias Keeps Fueling Risk-On – May 16, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Global financial markets remain dominated by swings in Fed rate expectations.
MRB TradeBook – Turbulence Continues – May 3, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: CLOSED –… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Volatility Shifts And Growth Stocks – April 26, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere were some changes to positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: NEW –… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Is Goldilocks Over (For Now)? – April 18, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
MRB’s non-consensus outlook coming into 2024 was for “no landing” in the U.S. (or global) economy, stickier than expected consumer price inflation…
Video – Secular Stagnation: A Disastrous Assumption – (16min:15sec) – April 16, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
One of the most damaging assumptions ever made by policymakers, especially the Federal Reserve, as well as the broader investment community, was that the world fell into Secular Stagnation in the 2010s.
Webinar – Global Asset Allocation: How Long Can Easy Money Last? – (69min:44sec) – March 27, 2024
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the investment outlook for the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation recommendations.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening A Stop And Closing One Position – March 15, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some positioning changes in the MRB TradeBook this week: TIGHTEN STOPS –… Continue
Equities – U.S. Tech Stocks: Size Matters – March 14, 2024
· Equities ·
Today’s U.S. tech stocks may or may not be in a bubble, but it will be increasingly difficult to outperform given their huge size…
Absolute Return Strategy – Time To Diversify – March 5, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The economic and policy environment remains supportive of pro-growth investments, but the rally is not without risks.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Money May Not Be Cheap, But It Is Easy – March 1, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital markets have moved to the rhythm of the Federal Reserve over the past two years…
U.S. Equities – Exceptionalism Is Fully Discounted – February 22, 2024
· Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. equities have rallied strongly over the past four months, climbing to a… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Closed One Trade, And Added Two New Positions – February 16, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere are some changes in positioning in the MRB TradeBook this week: NEW –… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Pro-Growth Is Winning, Equity Rotation Is Not (Yet) – February 9, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsOne of our core themes has been that the Fed pivot and drop in… Continue
Theme – U.S. Economy: “No Landing” Is Underway – February 7, 2024
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis month we are highlighting our research on the U.S. economy and one of… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Sugar High – February 2, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
Capital market pricing is consistent with an ideal future, comprising a sustained period of healthy economic growth, falling and sustained low inflation…
Absolute Return Strategy – From “Soft Landing” To “No Landing” – January 18, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The equity and bond market are both priced for a Goldilocks U.S. economic outcome that is unlikely to persist as the year progresses.
Fixed Income – U.S. High-Yield Corporate Debt: Still Some Juice Left – January 16, 2024
· Fixed Income ·
As is the case in most cycles, the economy, rather than a maturity wall or refinancing risk, will be the crucial driver of U.S. high-yield (HY) corporate bond performance in 2024.
Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2023 Review – January 9, 2024
Absolute Return · ·
The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Investors Are Out Over Their Skis – January 5, 2024
· Asset Allocation ·
After their big year-end run-up, capital markets are priced for a near-perfect economic and inflation outcome.
MRB TradeBook – Booking A Profit, And Opening A New Position And New Shadow Trade – December 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe booked profits on one equity pair trade related to our Japanese exposure, and… Continue
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2024 – (49min:45sec) – December 20, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provided a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2024.
2024 Absolute Return Outlook – Focus On The Tails – December 14, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
2023 has turned out to be a rollercoaster for financial asset markets, with investors flipflopping on the recession call and outlook for policy rates.
2024 Asset Allocation Outlook – A Maturing Cycle, But The End Is Not Yet Nigh – December 1, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
A global or U.S. recession is not yet in the cards for 2024, although the lifespan of the economic expansion is inevitably shortening.
MRB TradeBook – Tweaking Some Positions – November 17, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsU.S. health care stocks have underperformed the broad market in recent days causing us… Continue
Webcast – A Higher Real Rate-Bar To Hurdle – (13min:27sec) – November 15, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital markets, portfolio returns and appropriate asset allocations implications.
Long-Term Returns – Higher-For-Longer Rates = Lower Long-Term Returns – November 14, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The outlook for a global balanced portfolio over the next 10 years is unimpressive by the standards of recent decades, reflecting the permanent end of the era of low and/or falling interest rates.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Wolf Always Eventually Arrives, But Not Yet – November 10, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We are buyers of bonds on weakness and sellers of equities on strength, as the investment cycle is into the late stages.
MRB TradeBook – Some Tactical Changes – November 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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MRB TradeBook – Navigating The Volatility Shift – November 3, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsShifts in both equity and bond volatility have triggered several changes in the MRB… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
Theme – Will Higher Bond Yields Break The Global Economy? – October 20, 2023
· Themes ·
The trend in G7 government bond yields remains the dominant driver of global capital markets.
MRB TradeBook – Mini Replay Of 2022 – October 6, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite ReportsWe are making some changes to the MRB TradeBook in response to the recent… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Volatility Shift – September 29, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsAngst associated with higher interest rates has continued to weigh on stock markets and… Continue
Regional Equities – Options For De-Risking From The Heavyweight U.S. – September 28, 2023
· Equities ·
Regional equity positioning is complicated by the outsized weight of the U.S. in the global equity benchmark…
Absolute Return Strategy – Good News (Firmer Growth), But Bad News (Higher Bond Yields) – September 22, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The Fed and investors have progressively upgraded their outlook on the U.S. economy this year.
Webcast – The Bond Bear Market Is Intact – (10min:53sec) – September 12, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Don’t Yield To Bond Temptation – September 8, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Many investors are tempted to buy bonds on the prospect of the Fed et al nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle and cutting interest rates down the road.
MRB TradeBook – Long U.S. Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure Stocks Vs Broad Market – September 8, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports This position has corrected as of late, forcing us to book a 10%… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Approaching Some Important Inflection Points – August 18, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk-on phase since October will end if DM government bond yields decisively break out to new cyclical highs.
MRB TradeBook – Long Euro Area Financials Versus Its Benchmark – August 18, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – From Re-Rating Back To De-Rating? – August 11, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The rebound in U.S. layoffs has completely reversed, underscoring that the economic expansion will roll on, and sustain the historically very tight labor market.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops On Long Oil And Go Long Natural Gas – August 11, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
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Theme – Mania Profiling: Framework & Outlook – July 26, 2023
· Themes ·
This MRB Theme Report outlines MRB’s framework for asset manias or bubbles and compares the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Global Equities: Identifying Opportunities Among Major Non-U.S. Markets – July 25, 2023
· Equities ·
With all eyes recently on U.S. stocks, it is easy to miss important trends among the major non-U.S. markets.
Theme – Artificial Intelligence: Less Than Meets The Eye For Equities – July 18, 2023
· Themes ·
We are optimistic that A.I. can boost U.S. economic growth and productivity, although we caution that any estimate of the magnitude embodies considerable guesswork…
Webcast – On Bond Watch – (11min:36sec) – July 11, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets and MRB’s recommended asset allocation for the next 6-12 months.
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Implausible Trinity – July 7, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
Until this week, investors had been in an upbeat mood about the capital markets outlook, betting on an “implausible trinity”
Absolute Return Strategy – Risk-On Until Bond Yields Breakout – July 6, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks and investors have begun capitulating closer to our view that the cost of capital has not yet reached destabilizing levels.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Punch Bowl Is Still In Place – June 16, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital market conditions are likely to remain benign in the near term, thereby supporting positive momentum in global equities and credit.
MRB TradeBook – Closing Two Aussie Positions – June 9, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis week’s RBA hike has worked against two positions in the MRB TradeBook: long… Continue
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: An Uphill Battle – (12min:36sec) – June 6, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital market returns over the next decade and implication for structural allocations.
Asset Allocation Strategy – Mixed Signals = Overweight On Cash – June 2, 2023
Asset Allocation ·
Markets are providing decidedly mixed signals about the economic outlook, highlighting investor uncertainty.
Long-Term Returns – Prospective Returns: Prior Tailwinds Are Now Headwinds – May 30, 2023
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
Real returns on balanced portfolios of global equities and G7 government bonds will be lower over the next 10 years than in recent decades.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Late Cycle: Leaning Against The Consensus Yet Again – May 18, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The economic expansion has matured, and the investment cycle is now late.
MRB TradeBook – Positioning Changes – May 5, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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MRB TradeBook – Taking Profits On Short Oil – April 14, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThere is one change to the MRB TradeBook this week: CLOSED – Short Brent… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Two New Equity Positions And One Closed Pair Trade – April 6, 2023
Absolute Return ·
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MRB TradeBook – Rapid Volatility Shift – March 24, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports Angst associated with the potential for a global banking crisis has diminished a… Continue
MRB TradeBook – Protecting Profits During A Mini-Panic – March 17, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports The euro area financial sector came under intense selling pressure this week which… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Interest Rate Normalization & Global Financial Stocks – March 15, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
There are still widespread recession concerns, entrenched optimism on much lower inflation, and investors are generally confused about where we are in the economic and investment cycle.
Webcast – Fed Whipsaw – (11min:07sec) – March 8, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the outlook for capital markets over the next 6-12 months and MRB’s recommended asset allocation.
Webcast – Equity Dilemma: Stronger Economy Vs Higher Bond Yields – (10min:05sec) – February 22, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the major macro forces driving equities and bonds and narrows in on the current outlook for investment strategy.
Equities – Global Trade Is Key To The Earnings Outlook – February 16, 2023
· Equities ·
There remains considerable uncertainty about the economic outlook, but we have been and remain more constructive than the consensus…
Webcast – Profiting From Understanding The Cycle – (7min:42sec) – February 14, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the economic and investment cycles.
Absolute Return Strategy – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has provided a boost for risk assets.
Theme – Investors Misinterpret The Cycle Yet Again – February 10, 2023
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are now progressively capitulating to our more upbeat macro view, which has… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Risk-On, But It’s Late, Not Early Cycle – February 3, 2023
· Asset Allocation ·
From 30,000 feet the investment landscape appears appealing.
MRB TradeBook – Temporarily Step Aside From Shorting Growth Stocks – February 3, 2023
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports The slowing of monetary tightening by the Fed has provided a near-term boost… Continue
Track Record – MRB TradeBook Performance: 2022 Review – January 24, 2023
Absolute Return · ·
The objective of the MRB Absolute Return Strategy is to provide a steady stream of investment ideas, rather than be based purely on the track record.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Enjoy It While It Lasts – January 13, 2023
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent tactical risk-on phase should persist in the first part of 2023.
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2023 – (9min:20sec) – January 3, 2023
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2023.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2023 – December 22, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
For much of 2022, global portfolios were confronted with the lethal combination of decisively weaker global economic growth
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2023 – (77min:03sec) – December 14, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provide a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2023.
MRB TradeBook – Tightening Stops – December 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Charts – Monitoring The Weak Links – November 22, 2022
· Economics & Policy ·
A core area of our research over the past several years has been on what we term global “weak links”.
Webcast – Investment Implications Of Interest Rate Normalization – (11min:00sec) – November 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this Webcast Phillip Colmar outlines frameworks for understanding the process of interest rate normalization…
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade – November 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pause #3 in the cyclical bond yield advance is underway, providing relief for all asset markets.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing The Interest Rate Dominoes – November 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s MRB Absolute Return Strategy revisits our theme of toppling dominoes in response to interest rate normalization and provides a series of investment strategy recommendations.
MRB TradeBook Update – Tactically Adding More Beta – October 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
This has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central banks scrambled to adjust from being deeply wrongfooted by the global surge in inflation.
Theme – What Could Go Right? – October 19, 2022
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis has been a tough year for multi-asset portfolios as all developed market central… Continue
MRB TradeBook Update – New Equity Pair Trade – October 14, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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MRB TradeBook Update – Financial Markets Approach A Critical Juncture – September 30, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Higher Interest Rates Curb Risk Taking – September 23, 2022
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets are facing renewed selling pressure and will continue to do so… Continue
MRB TradeBook Update – Update Given Market Volatility – September 9, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Recession Vs Growth Scare: How To Position – (11min:05sec) – August 30, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Recession has become an ugly word among investors since these events are typically associated with a deep fallout in global equity prices
Absolute Return Strategy – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
Theme – When To Use The Recession Playbook – August 24, 2022
· Themes ·
There is currently no shortage of issues for investors to worry about, as the monetary authorities feel pressure to normalize policy
MRB TradeBook Update – Adding Beta – August 12, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Why The Consensus Is Repeatedly Wrongfooted – (13min:54sec) – August 10, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar addresses a core difference in what is a fundamental building block between MRB’s view and the consensus.
Theme – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
· Themes ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Absolute Return Strategy – Differing From The Consensus – July 28, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The global economy is currently facing many simultaneous headwinds from higher inflation, monetary “tightening”
Weekly Macro Strategy – Pessimism Is Overdone – July 8, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The second pause in the cyclical bond bear market is underway, driven by fears that an open-ended rate-hiking cycle will trigger a recession
MRB TradeBook Update – Adding Beta & Tightening Stops – July 8, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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MRB TradeBook Update – More Volatility – June 24, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Disorderly Adjustment – June 17, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Capital markets remain under duress with investors uncertain about whether central banks will be able to contain inflation without upending the economic expansion.
MRB TradeBook Update – Elevated Volatility – June 17, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Theme – Realigning The Cycle – June 9, 2022
· Themes ·
One of MRB’s core themes since the pandemic erupted has been that the global authorities forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Webinar – Just A Shakeout Or Sustained Rout? – (66min:01sec) – May 25, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In today’s Webinar MRB’s Global Strategist, Phillip Colmar, discussed the recent violent selloff in equities and other risk assets
Long-Term Returns – The Difficult Path Back To Monetary Normalization – May 24, 2022
· Asset Allocation · Equities ·
The coming decade will be dominated by the further unwinding of several tailwinds that have boosted capital market returns since the early-1980s.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Will A Window Of Opportunity Open? – May 20, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
It is premature to worry about an approaching recession until the bond market and central banks push monetary conditions into restrictive territory, which we do not expect in 2022.
Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle In Unprecedented Times – May 19, 2022
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since it was introduced to clients over a decade ago.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful What You Wish For – April 29, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A pause in the second cyclical upwave in bond yields may be developing, as growth concerns have increased and less alarming inflation data looms.
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For A Growth Scare – April 29, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report provides tactical recommendations for positioning to capitalize on the developing growth… Continue
Webcast – The Great Bond Market Capitulation – (7min:48sec) – April 27, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses this year’s dramatic selloff in government bonds and provides a roadmap of what to expect heading forward.
Theme – Government Bonds: This Is What Capitulation Looks Like (Phase 1) – April 21, 2022
· Fixed Income · Themes ·
The violent selloff in U.S. and G7 government bonds reflects the beginning of a major capitulation by both central banks and bond bulls
MRB TradeBook Update – March 25, 2022
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThis week’s equity rebound triggered the stop-buy on our long Japanese equity position and… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – From Russia To Reopening – March 21, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is dominating the headlines, causing increased volatility across financial asset markets.
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Long-Awaited Return Of Rising Wages – March 18, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth, in expectation that the economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war will prove temporary and modest, including in the most vulnerable euro area economy.
MRB TradeBook Update – March 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Wobbly Leg: Will The Global Economic Stool Remain Upright? – March 11, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run uncertainty will stay elevated until a lasting Ukraine ceasefire is in sight.
MRB TradeBook Update – March 11, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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MRB TradeBook Update – February 25, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – COVID Fades: The Impact Of Reopening – (9min:03sec) – February 16, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar discusses what the unwinding of the pandemic means for the global economy, policy, and investment strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – End Of COVID And Free Money – February 10, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
The two themes that will be crucial in shaping the global macro environment this year are the fading of COVID as a meaningful restraint on global mobilit
Weekly Macro Strategy – Equities Correct: Rotate, But Don’t Upgrade – January 28, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economy has slowed slightly due to Omicron, but we expect another year of above-trend growth in 2022.
MRB TradeBook Update – January 28, 2022
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Short-Term Reprieve, Or A Smash-Up Ahead? – January 21, 2022
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Pressure on equity markets will persist until DM bond markets stabilize. The latter are becoming oversold, so a short-term pause is possible, which would allow equity markets to regain their footing.
Absolute Return Strategy – A Choppy Transition – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return · ·
Last year was largely characterized by risk-on, fueled by extremely accommodative global monetary and fiscal policies, and a massive liquidity wave.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2021 Review – January 18, 2022
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports Our macro-outlook for 2021 panned out well. Specifically, we correctly called for a… Continue
Webcast – Investment Strategy For 2022 – (11min:55sec) – January 4, 2022
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast Phillip Colmar focuses on the key portfolio tilts that we recommend in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Another Wave, But Better Foundations – December 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is for slightly weaker economic growth as a result of another COVID-19 wave and related mobility restrictions.
Webinar – Best Ideas For 2022 – (74min:29sec) – December 22, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
MRB’s senior research team provides a series of high-conviction and non-consensus ideas for setting investment strategy in 2022.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Across The 2% Rubicon – December 17, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain modestly pro-growth in our positioning, mostly reflecting our very bearish bond stance.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part II) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
This is Part II of our 2022 Outlook for the MRB Absolute Return Strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – 2022 Outlook & Strategy (Part I) – December 16, 2021
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
One of our core themes in 2021 has been that the global authorities have forcefully divorced the policy cycle from the cycle in economic growth and inflation.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Prolonging The Cycle – December 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run COVID-19 related headwinds will act to prolong the economic cycle, but seem unlikely to derail the recovery, based on current information.
MRB TradeBook Update – December 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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MRB TradeBook Update – December 3, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Economic Resilience Means Higher Bond Yields (Eventually) – November 26, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic outlook remains upbeat, based on forward-looking indicators and extremely supportive monetary and fiscal policies.
Webcast – Sub-Par Returns For The Long Run – (13min:26sec) – November 24, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for capital market returns
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Slippery Slope – November 12, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain moderately pro-growth in our investment positioning.
Absolute Return Strategy – When The Unprecedented Liquidity Boom Fades – November 11, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
Central banks have suppressed interest rates (and bond yields) and created an environment where there is no alternative but to buy risk assets
Weekly Macro Strategy – Monetary Tightening: “Short & Abort”? – October 29, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The shift from hyper-accommodative monetary conditions to a restrictive stance will play out over a long period
MRB TradeBook Update – October 29, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Bet With, Or Against, The Consensus? – October 22, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain positioned for a moderately higher global stock/bond ratio in the next 6-12 months, with losses in the denominator and positive, but more muted, gains in equities (with greater volatility).
Absolute Return Strategy – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The current consensus view among investors and central banks is that the spike in growth and inflation will peter out with the world returning to something better characterized by the secular stagnation narrative.
Webinar – Asset Allocation Strategy: Navigating The Crosscurrents – (104min:43sec) – October 20, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
This Webinar featured MRB’s senior research team who outlined the macro-economic and inflation outlook for the coming 6-12 months.
Theme – The End Of “Transitory” – October 21, 2021
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite ReportsInvestors have focused on peak global growth and the potential downside risks ahead. However,… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bumpier Second Wave – October 15, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
This week’s change in energy policy in China was positive for the economy, and reinforces the upbeat global economic outlook. Moreover, signs that inflation will prove sticky continue to mount.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Bout Of Vertigo – October 8, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity prices have moved ahead of improving underlying corporate earnings, leaving stocks overbought at a point when some short-term threats have developed.
MRB TradeBook Update – October 8, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – The Decoupling Of The Policy, Economic & Investment Cycles – (17min:21sec) – October 6, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses how the unprecedented events over the past couple of years have led to an abnormal decoupling of the policy
MRB TradeBook Update – October 1, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors struggling to sort out the economic and policy crosscurrents and determine if we are now early, midway, or late in the cycle.
Theme – Early, Mid or Late Cycle? – September 28, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The extraordinary events over the past couple of years have left many investors… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – The Canaries Are Still Chirping – September 24, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The risk of global contagion from Chinese real estate woes and policy uncertainty should remain low.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Wanna Job? – September 17, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Q4 employment surveys showed a further huge surge in hiring plans, underscoring that the global economic recovery will be solid and durable.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Government Bond Yields: Is The Pause Ending? – September 10, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Soggy economic data in China in the near run and a moderation in growth rates in the developed world could cause equity markets to churn further.
MRB TradeBook Update – September 10, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Fiscal Cliff, Or Fiscal Liftoff? – August 27, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Near-run headwinds for equities and credit will persist given heightened virus anxiety and peak growth concerns.
MRB TradeBook Update – August 27, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Dragging Out The Cycle – August 20, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Virus angst may hold back equities in the near run, while keeping bond yields pinned down and delaying monetary policy from becoming less hyper-accommodative
MRB TradeBook Update – August 20, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – A Different Decade Ahead – August 13, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Sentiment remains upbeat in the major economies despite ongoing angst about the COVID-19 Delta variant.
MRB TradeBook Update – August 13, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
It is common for investors and central bankers to get stuck in a preceding longstanding macro trend well after fundamentals have shifted.
Theme – Stuck In A Moment (The 2010s) – August 5, 2021
· Themes ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Early Cycle, Or Late Cycle? – July 30, 2021
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global risk asset markets remain well supported by the economic and policy backdrop.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A Transitory Recovery? – July 23, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Our investment stance remains mildly pro-growth on a 6-12 month horizon.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Too Much Stimulus Breeds Complacency – July 16, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent easing in bond yields will keep risk asset markets well supported. Investors (and central banks) are looking through the current period of strong growth and higher inflation, but are likely to be surprised at the underlying resilience of both.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Be Careful Extrapolating Last Decade’s Trends – July 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain mildly pro-growth in terms of investment positioning. However, using the 2010s’ playbook for investing this decade will not pan out well.
MRB TradeBook Update – July 9, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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MRB TradeBook Update – July 2, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Webinar – Long-Term Returns: A Challenging Road Ahead – (78min:38sec) – June 30, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Today’s Webinar features MRB’s Global Asset Allocation Strategist, Peter Perkins, discussing MRB’s long term returns framework.
Weekly Macro Strategy – A (Brief) Taste Of Risk-Off – June 25, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent pause in the cyclical uptrend in bond yields may persist for a while longer, but time is not on the side of bond bulls.
MRB TradeBook Update – June 25, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Long-Term Returns – A Challenging Road Ahead – June 22, 2021
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The poor starting point for equity, bond, credit, and commodity valuations points to subpar returns on balanced portfolios over the next decade, even as the global economy expands at a reasonable pace.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Strong Global Growth, But No Inflation? – June 18, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The global economic recovery is accelerating. Although China’s growth rate has now moderated, the U.S. is likely to continue to boom and Europe is set to catch up.
Absolute Return Strategy – Six Best Inflation Bets – June 15, 2021
Absolute Return ·
The outlook for U.S. and global consumer price inflation has become a hotly debated topic in recent months and now central to investment strategy.
MRB TradeBook Update – June 4, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Its Only A Pause – May 28, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The bear market in government bonds is on temporary hiatus.
MRB TradeBook Update – May 28, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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MRB TradeBook Update – May 21, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – From Virtuous To Vicious – May 14, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The brightening economic outlook means that inflation pressures will steadily build and bond yields will move higher in waves.
MRB TradeBook Update – May 14, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs of frothy conditions, at a point when consumer price inflation is rising, bonds have entered a durable bear market and the U.S. dollar is vulnerable.
Theme – Risk Of Another 1987 Crash – May 10, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The investment cycle is decisively ahead of the economic cycle, with many signs… Continue
MRB TradeBook Update – April 30, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – Key Portfolio Tilts For Outsized Returns – (8min:45sec) – April 28, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines four longer-term global investment trends that will be key to generating outsized portfolio returns over the next several years.
Absolute Return Strategy – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in recent months.
Theme – Playing Major Global Trends – April 22, 2021
Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global reflation trade has cooled of late, after becoming technically stretched in… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Risk Assets Benefit As The Rise In Treasury Yields Pauses – April 9, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Global growth is strengthening and broadening, helping to sustain rising earnings expectations.
MRB TradeBook Update – April 9, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Webcast – The Rebirth Of The Bond Vigilante – (10min:49sec) – March 17, 2021
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar discusses the recent sharp selloff in government bonds and the ramifications for investment strategy.
Absolute Return Strategy – Is Good News Now Bad? – March 4, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
One of the leading threats we identified for financial markets in 2021 is now occurring, namely that bond yields rise too fast.
MRB TradeBook Update – February 26, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Theme – MRB’s Overview Of Key Macro Themes (Part II) – February 18, 2021
· Themes ·
This is Part II of an update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
MRB TradeBook Update – February 5, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy – Free Money Forever – January 29, 2021
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Equity market risks have recently eased on the fundamental side, as Treasury yields have calmed, but worsened on the technical side, as speculative froth has erupted. A pause in augmenting favored positions is still warranted.
MRB TradeBook Update – January 29, 2021
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Selectivity After The Runup – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return · ·
This report focuses on positioning around the potential for some near-term turbulence in global equity markets following the recent sharp upleg.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2020 Review – January 12, 2021
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports2020 provided a rollercoaster ride in many financial asset markets, as investors were forced… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2021 – December 16, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 pandemic took global policy and the economy hostage in 2020.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Ebb And Flow Of Uncertainty – November 12, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
There has been a clash all year between the countervailing forces of the sudden-stop recession and unprecedented policy reflation.
Absolute Return Strategy – Looking Past The U.S. Election – October 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities and other risk assets were hit hard this week as COVID-19 infections continue to spike throughout Europe and parts of North America, forcing several countries into renewed shutdowns.
TradeBook Update – September 25, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite ReportsThe recent market selloff has acted as a headwind on pro-growth trades, triggering our… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy – Rotation Update – September 18, 2020
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain short-term cautious on equities (and industrial commodities) because the economic recovery is proving underwhelming in many countries and there are a number of potential risks ahead.
TradeBook Update – Euro Area Vs U.S. Equities – September 18, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – The Opportunities Are In The Laggards – September 10, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
It has been a bumpy ride for investors over the past week as equities abruptly pulled back from overbought levels, before catching a bid yesterday.
Absolute Return Strategy – Equity Leaders Vs Everything Else – September 3, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Market leaders typically have a material influence on overall equity performance, but it has been dramatic this year.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle: Did Policymakers Avoid A Final Flush? – August 20, 2020
· Themes ·
MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks as it provides a starting point when building a multi-year roadmap, and helps investors look for major inflection points.
Webcast – Is The U.S. Set To Lose Equity & Currency Leadership? – (11min:55sec) – July 30, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. leadership, and provides several investment strategy recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Theme – Do U.S. Assets Justify Their Premium? – July 28, 2020
· Themes ·
Today’s report explores the potential for a broad-based rotation in relative performance away from U.S. equity and currency leadership.
Absolute Return Strategy – Setting Up For Another Shakeout? – June 23, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The powerful bounce back in global risk assets since late-March has benefited our pro-growth positioning.
TradeBook Update – June 12, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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Long-Term Returns – Long-Term Fallout From The COVID-19 Crisis – May 28, 2020
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation ·
The post-COVID-19 world poses fresh challenges for investors. While we expect the global economy to rebound in the year ahead, growth in the longer-term will be somewhat slower than was probable prior to the crisis.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month – (10min:37sec) – May 13, 2020
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Warren Smith and Santiago Espinosa discuss the top five queries from clients in the past month.
Theme – Mania Profiling (Part VI): What Assets Will Be Next? – May 12, 2020
· Themes ·
This report concludes our series on profiling asset manias. We began this series in late-2019 by outlining MRB’s framework for asset bubbles and compared the current macro backdrop with factors that have traditionally led to manic episodes.
Absolute Return Strategy – Catch The Waves: The Next Is Approaching – April 30, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Investor sentiment has shifted rapidly from being overly optimistic on expectations of an acceleration in global growth conditions in late-January, to pricing in another deep recession by late-March, to now seemingly overly complacent about the likely recovery path ahead.
Absolute Return – TradeBook Update – April 17, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return – Profiting From A Defensive Stance – March 13, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports We shifted the aggregate MRB TradeBook from a modest pro-growth to a defensive… Continue
Theme Report – Fallout From COVID-19: Most Asked Questions – March 12, 2020
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
The rapid spread of COVID-19 across the globe has dramatically heightened investor uncertainty and rocked global financial markets.
TradeBook Updates – March 6, 2020
Absolute Return · Emerging Markets ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Will COVID-19 End The Cycle? – February 27, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
The COVID-19 threat arrived at a point when equity markets had an air pocket after materially rerating over the past year and were overly optimistic about the global growth outlook.
TradeBook Update – Booking Profits – February 14, 2020
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Manias & Crashes – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities stumbled in the last week after surging over the past year.
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2019 Review – January 29, 2020
Absolute Return ·
Add to Favorite Reports In 2019, we leaned against repeated calls for an imminent recession, which benefited… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Positioning For 2020 – December 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report outlines the main macro forces that will influence the investment landscape for 2020 and provides our related investment strategy.
Absolute Return – MRB TradeBook Update – November 8, 2019
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Trading Ranges Don’t Last – October 24, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets have been rangebound over the past several months, caught between powerful macro and political crosscurrents.
Long-Term Returns – Stocks, Not Bonds, For The Long Run – October 24, 2019
· Asset Allocation ·
Returns from balanced portfolios over the next decade will be middling by historical standards.
Theme – A Tradeless Cycle: Unrecognized Causality & Implications – September 13, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Global trade growth has cooled dramatically over the past decade fueling speculation that global import demand may be structurally impaired.
Webcast – Top 5 Client Requests Of The Month (15min:45sec) – September 11, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Political risks have been erupting all over the world, creating tremendous market volatility and a steady increase in angst about the financial and economic market outlook
Absolute Return Strategy – Fattening The Tails – August 23, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Our overarching view has been that the bull run in the global stock/bond ratio has matured and is undergoing an extended topping out process that began in early-2018.
Weekly Macro Strategy – Nearing A Tipping Point – August 9, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Protectionism and isolationism have recently risen, implying that the weakness in trade will persist, with increased risks of contagion on the broader economy.
Absolute Return – MRB TradeBook Update – August 9, 2019
Absolute Return ·
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Absolute Return Strategy – Seeking An Extension To The Cycle – July 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Risk assets have responded favorably to the recent trade truce between the U.S. and China, rising materially on the news.
Absolute Return Strategy – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation. In this report we provide a framework to help investors map the competing forces at work in the global economy.
Theme – Trade War Vs The Fed: Mapping The Impact – June 10, 2019
· Themes ·
Financial markets have swung wildly this year, caught in the crosscurrents between potentially destabilizing trade policies and a fresh round of monetary reflation.
Theme – MRB’s Annual Overview Of Key Investment Themes (Part II) – May 29, 2019
· Themes ·
This is Part II of a two-part annual update of the big-picture themes that form the foundation for MRB’s longer-term investment strategy.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Reality Check (9min:52sec) – May 29, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the 10-year outlook for global capital markets following the release of the latest MRB Long-Term Returns report.
Long-Term Returns – A Limited Opportunity Set – May 23, 2019
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy ·
The current economic expansion is now the longest on record and has delivered solid returns for global multi-asset investor.
Absolute Return Strategy – Passing The Baton: From Policy To Growth – May 9, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
The shot of reflation provided by the Fed and other central banks has propelled equity prices higher this year.
Absolute Return Strategy – Another Round Of Reflation – March 14, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Growth scares and equity and/or credit market meltdowns have a way of forcing a policy response.
Webcast – MRB’s Long-Term Portfolio Recommendations (7min:09sec) – March 6, 2019
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa step back from our tactical investment strategy and focus on several higher-conviction multi-year recommendations that are extracted from our big-picture thematic work.
Absolute Return Strategy – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with a longer-term roadmap.
Theme Report – The High-Conviction Multi-Year Portfolio – March 6, 2019
· Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports This report leverages our recent big picture thematic work to provide investors with… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Flickers Of Life – February 22, 2019
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A calm bond market, sidelined central banks and good odds that corporate earnings will grind higher this year, all bode well for equities and credit.
Theme – The Next Recession: 12 Non-Consensus Views (Part I) – January 16, 2019
· Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the first of a two-part Theme Report that steps back and evaluates what the next global economic recession will look like
Absolute Return Strategy – MRB TradeBook Track Record: 2018 Review – January 10, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
This is an update of the MRB TradeBook track record for 2018.
Absolute Return Strategy – Crisis Of Confidence – January 7, 2019
Absolute Return · ·
Investors have been suffering a “crisis of confidence” in monetary and political leadership in several major economies around the globe.
Absolute Return Strategy – An Absence Of Buyers – December 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equity markets, corporate bonds and crude oil prices have faced intense selling pressure since U.S. stock prices peaked in late-September.
Webcast – Stylized Investment Cycle: Navigating The Endgame (11min:42sec) – December 6, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Global equity markets are in turmoil, as investors are rapidly downgrading the growth expectations and starting to panic about the potential for a global recession.
Theme – MRB Stylized Investment Cycle: Extended Topping Out Process – December 4, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks since we introduced it to clients earlier this decade.
Absolute Return Strategy – Global Economic Stool: Are The Legs Wobbly? – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been hit hard over the past few weeks, with global… Continue
Theme – The Great Convergence: U.S. Vs Global Equities – November 21, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Equities · Themes ·
U.S. equity prices have surged this cycle relative to their non-U.S. counterparts by a magnitude that that has been on par with the 1990s economic expansion and equity bull run.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Sentiment Versus Fundamentals – October 26, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakdown in equity prices will cap bond yields in the short term.
Theme – The Casualties Of Interest Rate Normalization – October 22, 2018
Absolute Return · · Economics & Policy · Fixed Income · Themes ·
There has been a massive shift in global imbalances over the past decade. The U.S. and euro area household sectors have delevered, making them less sensitive to rising interest rates and bond yields.
Absolute Return Strategy – Bond Bear Bites Again – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
The abrupt breakout in U.S. Treasury yields over the past week caught many investors by surprise and sent shockwaves through financial asset markets.
Absolute Return – Endgame: The Next Stage – October 10, 2018
Absolute Return · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors have struggled to sort out the numerous crosscurrents in recent months. Most… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – The Bond Bear Growls – October 5, 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
The breakout in U.S Treasury yields represents a fresh challenge to a global economy that has been resilient this year, thanks to ongoing policy support and still-positive cyclical dynamics.
Absolute Return Strategy – Brief R&R – August 27, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Political turmoil in several countries (including Italy and the U.S.), escalating trade tensions, and a crisis in Turkey have prevented many investors from getting much rest and relaxation this summer.
Webcast – MRB Q&A: Top Questions From Clients (9min:35sec) – July 25, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
Peter Perkins answers some of the key client questions we have recently received, ranging from the impact of trade protectionism on investment strategy to the outlook for gold.
Absolute Return Strategy – The Churn Continues – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Today’s report revisits three topics that continue to be heavily debated and which we believe investors are focused inappropriately.
Fixed Income – Yield Curve: Misread & Risks Skewed To Steepening – July 6, 2018
Absolute Return · Fixed Income · Themes ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Will Economic Resilience Last? – June 29, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
There have been conflicting messages from global financial markets, underscoring the uncertain investment landscape.
WMS – TradeBook Update – June 29, 2018
Absolute Return ·
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Charts – Euro Area Equities: Earnings Tailwinds Still Intact – June 15, 2018
· Equities ·
The recent weakness in euro area equities will give way to another upleg to a fresh cyclical peak over the next 6-12 months.
Absolute Return Strategy – Into The Endgame – May 30, 2018
Absolute Return · · Themes ·
Global equities have swung wildly this year. Our base-case view is that recent selling pressure will prove to be a setback, rather than the start of a bear market.
Webcast – Long-Term Returns: Fundamental Headwinds (10min:38sec) – May 30, 2018
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for global capital markets and returns for major asset classes.
Long-Term Returns Report – The Loss Of The Bond Anchor – May 25, 2018
· Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Themes ·
Multi-asset portfolios are fated to deliver historically modest returns in the coming decade, primarily because the tailwind from bonds has ended and will gradually reverse.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Floors And Ceilings – May 18, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The breakout in U.S. bond yields and rebound in the dollar underscore that the U.S. policy/economic cycle still has momentum.
Theme Report – The Next Global Recession: Watching The Canaries – May 2, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
The world economy has transitioned from subdued and desynchronized growth with disinflation and emergency policy settings, to a faster paced expansion with gradually building price pressures, and a slow but steady unwinding of hyper-accommodative monetary settings.
Absolute Return Strategy – Finding A Footing – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been forced to digest several credible threats this year
Absolute Return – Growth Vs Value Stocks: When To Rotate? – April 20, 2018
Absolute Return · Equities ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Weathering The Storm – April 13, 2018
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The near-run outlook is still mixed, but a higher global stock/bond ratio looms over the next 6-12 months.
Absolute Return Strategy – Juggling Risks – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Global equities have been confronted with several headwinds this year…
Theme Report – The New Macro Roadmap – March 29, 2018
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Asset Class Reports · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports The “new normal” or “secular stagnation” thesis was the wrong framework, and just… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – A Slippery Slope – March 23, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
The recent risk-off phase was initially driven by rising bond yields, but now fears of protectionism have moved to the forefront. Barring an escalating trade war, we expect the pause in bond yields and correction in equity prices to reverse beyond the near run.
WMS – MRB TradeBook Update – March 2, 2018
Absolute Return ·
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Weekly Macro Strategy Report – Transitioning To A New Era – February 9, 2018
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk asset prices will remain under pressure until bond yields stabilize. The latter… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – Protecting Profits – February 5, 2018
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Two of the risk factors that we have been monitoring to time an… Continue
Asset Allocation Strategy – Too Much Of A Good Thing – February 2018
· Asset Allocation ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have been on fire in response to a nearly ideal macro… Continue
Webcast – MRB’s Best Long-Term Bets (7min:39sec) – December 20, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar outlines several of MRB’s multi-year investment recommendations.
Absolute Return Strategy – Seven High-Conviction Multi-Year Investments – December 14, 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.
Charts – The Bearish Case For Gold – November 28, 2017
· Commodities ·
MRB has been negative on gold since early this decade, regularly warning of the vulnerabilities and advising clients to limit exposure.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – It All Comes Down To Inflation – November 24, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
We remain near-run cautious on risk assets, but are still positive on the global stock/bond ratio on a 6-12 month horizon.
Absolute Return Strategy – November 17, 2017
Absolute Return · ·
The rally in global equities has been powerful this year in line with the Phase 5 higher-conviction rally.
Webcast – What Is The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle Telling Us? (10min:55sec) – November 15, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Phillip Colmar and Santiago Espinosa provide MRB’s key takeaways from our four-part theme report on the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part IV): Timing The End Of The Bull Market – November 10, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
This is the fourth and final MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – November 10, 2017
Weekly Macro Strategy ·
A bond and equity correction looms as the inflation, policy and economic backdrop turns marginally less supportive. Moreover, high-yield corporate bond spreads have edged up lately, a potential warning sign for equities.
Webcast – The Disinflation Tailwind Has Passed (9min:23sec) – November 1, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, global strategist Peter Perkins discusses the long-term outlook for the major asset classes and examines the key economic, policy and valuations drivers.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part III): Regional Equity Positioning – November 1, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Themes ·
This is the third MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle.
Long-Term Returns Report – October 26, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Emerging Markets · Equities · Fixed Income ·
The coming decade will see an end to an era of steadily declining discount rates and the associated boost to asset valuations. Prospective returns for balanced portfolios will be middling by historical standards, accompanied by lower Sharpe ratios.
Webcast – The Submerging World: A New Roadmap (9min:02sec) – October 25, 2017
Webcasts & Webinars ·
In this week’s Webcast, Santiago Espinosa and Phillip Colmar provide MRB’s latest research and thoughts on the evolution of the deleveraging part of the global economy, which we term the submerging world.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part II): Asset Class Positioning – October 25, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
This is the second MRB Theme Report in a multi-part series updating the MRB Stylized Investment Cycle, which is one of our most popular thematic frameworks. Part I outlined our framework and where financial markets currently are within the investment cycle.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part II): The Next Wave – October 19, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
This is the second report of a two-part series, updating our submerging world theme. Part I outlined the ramifications resulting from the mushrooming and subsequent erosion of this segment of the global economy over the past decade.
Theme – Stylized Investment Cycle (Part I): Framework & Current Cycle – October 11, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Equities · Fixed Income · Themes ·
The MRB Stylized Investment Cycle has been one of our most popular thematic frameworks over the years.
Theme – Ebb & Flow Of The Submerging World (Part I): Implications & Strategy – October 3, 2017
Absolute Return · · Asset Allocation · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
One of our most powerful macro themes over the past few years has been something we term the Submerging world.
Equities – FANGs: The New Nifty 50? – August 17, 2017
Absolute Return · · Equities ·
Add to Favorite Reports Today’s report continues our work on the FANG stocks. We compare the runup… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – August 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Market participants normally desire a solid economy, pro-growth policies, stability and predictability. President… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – July 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The global macro backdrop remains favorable for equities and other risk assets, while… Continue
Weekly Macro Strategy Report – June 9, 2017
· Weekly Macro Strategy ·
Add to Favorite Reports Politics dominate the headlines, but improving corporate profits bode well for the global… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – May 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The Chinese economy is starting to downshift, while investors are paring back their… Continue
Absolute Return Strategy – April 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The setback in the global stock/bond ratio is likely to persist over the… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – February 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports U.S. high-yield corporate bonds will still generate positive absolute returns, but much of… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – January 2017
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global financial markets, particularly in the U.S., got a bit ahead of themselves… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – December 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The powerful upleg in the global stock/bond ratio is due for a pause… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – November 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports A Trump presidency creates more political, economic and financial market uncertainty over the… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – October 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports We are maintaining a mild pro-growth tilt but advise against becoming too aggressive,… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – September 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Yields in high-quality bond markets have converged at very subdued levels. While some… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – August 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The balance of global growth appears to be shifting mildly in favor of… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – July 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports The U.K. pound and domestic risk assets have been beaten up, but the… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – June 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investors are rightfully fixated on Brexit, given the potential adverse economic impact for… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – May 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global equities are digesting their recent gains, and should break higher on the… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – April 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Risk assets have benefited from an easing in recession fears, but further gains… Continue
Strategic Trader Report – March 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The major central banks have provided another round of reflation, helping… Continue
Strategic Trader – February 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The selloff in risk assets has intensified and exhibits many characteristics… Continue
Strategic Trader – January 2016
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The global growth scare has intensified in recent days, although the… Continue
Strategic Trader – December 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The U.S. and Europe will provide support for global growth, while… Continue
Strategic Trader – November 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The global stock/bond ratio should push higher, driven by firming global… Continue
Strategic Trader – October 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Equity markets are bouncing from oversold levels, but will need evidence of improving… Continue
Strategic Trader – September 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Themes: The Fed postponed its tightening campaign again, despite that it will not… Continue
Strategic Trader Update – August 27, 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Equities should regain ground as growth fears subside. Stay long. Commodity markets are… Continue
Strategic Trader – August 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global equities have managed to absorb another external shock this week, with the… Continue
Strategic Trader – July 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Anxieties related to Greece, Iran and the Chinese stock market meltdown are subsiding,… Continue
Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – July 16, 2015
Absolute Return · · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports Policy trends will increasingly diverge across the globe over the next year, although… Continue
Strategic Trader – June 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The equity bull market remains intact. Concerns over the backup in… Continue
Strategic Trader – May 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The deflation trade is starting to unwind and should push both… Continue
Strategic Trader – April 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes Investment Cycle: Another sustained upleg in the global stock/bond ratio has… Continue
Strategic Trader – March 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The U.S. dollar is extremely overbought and well ahead of underlying… Continue
Strategic Trader – February 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The deflation trade is now very late. Both crude oil prices… Continue
Strategic Trader – January 2015
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Global growth, policy, liquidity trends, valuations and technical conditions all support a further… Continue
Strategic Trader – December 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports 2015 Macro Outlook Global growth will strengthen as headwinds for the major economies… Continue
Strategic Trader – November 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The global stock/bond ratio is transitioning into another sustained upleg. Stay… Continue
Strategic Trader – October 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The global equity bull run still has plenty of upside potential,… Continue
Strategic Trader – September 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes A Long Cycle: The global economic expansion is far from the… Continue
Strategic Trader – August 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes & Trades Risk assets are overdue for a setback, although current… Continue
Strategic Trader – July 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes & Trades The global equity bull run still has plenty of… Continue
Strategic Trader – June 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes & Trades The bull market in the stock/bond ratio is transitioning… Continue
Strategic Trader – May 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The relief valve from lower bond yields is helping provide support… Continue
Strategic Trader – April 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The consolidation in global equities may persist for a while longer,… Continue
Strategic Trader – March 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The global stock/bond ratio is likely to churn over the next… Continue
Strategic Trader – February 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The cyclical advance in risk assets has a long way to… Continue
Strategic Trader – January 2014
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes Stay Pro-Growth: The cyclical bull-run in risk assets still has legs…. Continue
Strategic Trader – December 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports 2014 Macro Outlook The global economy will strengthen further next year, yet CPI… Continue
Strategic Trader – November 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports New Trades The near-term technical bounce in the Australian dollar is over. Short… Continue
Strategic Trader – October 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes Unwinding The Fear Premium Grinding Government Bond Bear Market Search For… Continue
Strategic Trader – September 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The Great Migration: Capital will continue to shift from safety/yield plays… Continue
Strategic Trader – August 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes Gradual Government Bond Bear Market: The valuation distortion in the Treasury… Continue
Theme – Trading Monetary Policy Trends – July 11, 2013
Absolute Return · · Economics & Policy · Themes ·
Add to Favorite Reports No central bank faces immediate pressure to tighten. Regardless, most will be hesitant… Continue
Strategic Trader – July 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes Risk On/Off: Equity market volatility could persist over the summer but… Continue
Strategic Trader – June 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes End Of Risk On/Off: A correction is underway, not the end… Continue
Strategic Trader – May 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes End Of Risk On/Off: Capital market pricing is skewed in favor… Continue
Strategic Trader – April 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The Great Migration: The shift into economically-sensitive assets continues at a… Continue
Strategic Trader – March 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes The Great Migration: Risk assets are benefiting as investors shift from… Continue
Strategic Trader – February 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports New Trades Buy Japanese autos and industrials versus domestically-focused retailers as a play… Continue
Strategic Trader – January 2013
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports Investment Themes Fear Is Overpriced Search For Yield Is Late Search For Growth… Continue
Strategic Trader – December 2012
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports View MRB TradeBook (web/PDF format) Positioning For 2013 Investors are likely to gradually… Continue
Strategic Trader – November 2012
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports View MRB TradeBook (web/PDF format) Themes The search for yield is getting priced… Continue
Strategic Trader – October 2012
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports View MRB TradeBook (web/PDF format) New Trades Look for short opportunities in the… Continue
Strategic Trader – September 2012
Absolute Return · ·
Add to Favorite Reports View MRB TradeBook (web/PDF format) Equities: Stay long Germany versus the periphery euro… Continue