MacroResearchBoard

MRB on CNBC – September 10, 2024

“Today is a bit of the defensive rotation getting overdone,” said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners. “You end up with a lot of volatility as people get back from the summer, because we had markets positioned in a way that was set up for a lot — in the sense that we had high tech flyers and the Fed trying to justify rate cuts.”

View article: Click Here, CNBC

 

MRB on MarketWatch and Morningstar – August 16, 2024

“Aggressively selling stocks on the notion that Fed rate cuts are bad for risk assets is premature based on the weight of the economic evidence” notes Salvatore Ruscitti, U.S. equity strategist at MRB Partners.

View article: Click Here, Morningstar

 

MRB on Kiplinger – May 15, 2024

Phillip Colmar, MRB Partners Global Strategist, noted that the latest CPI release provided the Fed and bond investors some temporary comfort after the reacceleration in Q1, but inflation remains sticky at elevated levels, which will limit the window for rate cuts.

View article: Click Here, Kiplinger

 

MRB on CNBC – May 15, 2024

MRB Partners U.S. Equity Strategist Salvatore Ruscitti noted that the market’s initial focus on the lack of upside surprises in net interest income for U.S. banks was shortsighted and missed the more important takeaway, which is that the outlook for overall bank earnings is one of ongoing resiliency. 

View article: Click Here, CNBC

 

MRB on Investing.com and msn – May 14, 2024

MRB Partners global strategist Phillip Colmar spoke with Investing.com following the most recent Federal Reserve meeting. He noted that the data is likely to temporarily ebb in support of the Fed’s dovish bias, but that the underlying trend of solid economic growth and sticky inflation will persist, limiting the central bank’s ability to cut.

View article: Click Here, Investing.com, msn

 

MRB on WSJ and msn – April 26, 2024

“The bond market is waking up to the fact that inflation is stickier than we thought,” said Phillip Colmar, managing partner at the research firm MRB Partners. “That is causing a lot of volatility in equities.” Whereas optimism for a so-called soft landing of the economy buoyed a broad array of stocks starting late last year, Colmar expects choppy waters ahead.  “It is not a buy-everything rally now,” he said. 

View article: Click Here, WSJ, msn

 

MRB on MarketWatch – April 25, 2024

“The market is very attuned to inflation because Powell said the Fed doesn’t have enough evidence of inflation easing,” said Phillip Colmar of MRB Partners. “The components that drive inflation, were above trend in the GDP release, so he’s not going to have the confidence he needs to cut rates.”

View article: Click Here, MarketWatch

 

MRB on Investing.com and msn – April 19, 2024

“We would not add gold exposure at current prices, and view it as vulnerable on a 6-12 month horizon as forward markets will further unwind Fed rate cut expectations and bond yields have more upside,” Strategists at MRB Partners said in a Friday note.

View article: Click Here, Investing.com, msn

 

MRB on CNBC – April 18, 2024

“The prevailing consensus is that inflation’s recent pickup is an anomaly, and that inflation will return to its low pre-pandemic run-rate ahead,” says MRB Partners. “The last three CPI reports support MRB’s view that the consensus is mistaken.”

View article: Click Here, CNBC, CNBC LA

 

MRB on Pension & Investment – April 17, 2024

However, Peter Perkins, partner, global strategy and regional equities at research firm MRB Partners, cautioned that Japanese stocks are overbought and therefore vulnerable to a consolidation or correction phase.

View article: Click Here, Pensions & Investment

 

MRB on Kiplinger – April 10, 2024

“U.S. CPI inflation was hotter than expected yet again in March, narrowing the window further for Federal Reserve rate cuts. The past few months are consistent with our view that inflation will bottom out closer to 4% than 2%, and well above what is expected by the central bank and bond market.” – Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

View article: Click Here, Kiplinger

 

MRB on MarketWatch and Morningstar – April 10, 2024

The strength of the U.S. economy has continued to surprise even stock-market bulls, consistent with our view said Phillip Colmar, managing partner at MRB Partners. All the economic data has come in stronger than expected. We are seeing a pickup in manufacturing activity; the services sector is strong; we’ve even seen a pickup in housing, which is interest-rate sensitive.

View article: Click Here, MarketWatch, Morningstar

 

MRB on Reuters – April 2, 2024

“When the ISM data bounced up above the 50 line, it wiped out recession bets for a lot of people and also pulled forward or unwound rate cut expectations,” said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners in New York.

View article: Click Here, Reuters, Yahoo! finance

 

MRB on Business Insider – March 31, 2024

Inflation has also proved to be slightly stickier than the Fed would like, and it could stay that way, prompting the central bank to leave rates higher for longer. Higher inflation could cause long-term bond yields to rise further, according to Phillip Colmar, managing partner at MRB Partners.

View article: Click Here, Business Insider

 

MRB on Investing.com – March 19, 2024

“Our view is that as long as bond yields can consolidate around current levels, the equity market does have the green light to go higher, and we expect a broader participation in that rally, which we’ve already started to see,” Phillip Colmar global macro strategist at MRB Partners told Investing.com’s Yasin Ebrahim on Wednesday.  

View article: Click Here, Investing.com

 

MRB on Reuters, Yahoo! Finance and Nasdaq – March 12, 2024

PHILLIP COLMAR, GLOBAL STRATEGIST, MRB PARTNERS, NEW YORK

“Sticky inflation seems to be very much intact at this point.

“This is problematic for the bond market and the Fed’s view that inflation’s ultimately coming down to that 2% target.

View article: Click Here, Reuters, Yahoo! Finance, Nasdaq

 

MRB on Pensions & Investment – March 8, 2024

Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, noted “U.S. employment continues to expand at a very healthy pace on a trend basis, driven by strong corporate profitability and signals an economic expansion that is still very robust and a labor market that is very tight. The Federal Reserve may have a desire to ease, but there is no indication that the economy requires rate cuts.”

View article: Click Here, Pension & Investment

 

MRB on CNBC – March 4, 2024

Recent research by Peter Perkins, MRB Partners Global Strategist, was featured in Ying Shan Lee’s CNBC article. Peter notes that the Nikkei is not a great gauge for the broader economy and the rise does not signal a dramatic improvement in Japan’s economic outlook. Nonetheless, it reflects a reduced risk of chronic deflation.

View article: Click Here, CNBC

 

MRB on MarketWatch And Morningstar – February 29, 2024

Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at Macro Research Board, said that a “constructive” sector rotation is occurring in response to the potential for a “no-landing” outcome in the U.S. economy, or solid above-trend economic growth. The key will be that bond yields stay calm.

View article: Click Here, MarketWatch, Morningstar

 

MRB on CNN Underscored – February 26, 2024

“It becomes an underlying instrument to set interest rate structures across the entire economy,” said Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at research firm MRB Partners.

View article: Click Here, CNN

 

MRB on CNBC – February 23, 2024

Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, weighed in on the market’s rally highlighted by Nvidia’s significant gains and its impact on the broader tech sector. He noted the current rally’s potential risks, given sky-high earnings expectations and valuations within the tech sector, which doesn’t leave room for disappointment or an ongoing rise in bond yields.

View article: Click Here, CNBC

 

MRB on Reuters, Yahoo! Finance and Investing.com – February 20, 2024

MRB Partners’ Global Strategist Phillip Colmar noted that the risk to the Goldilocks scenario was that we weren’t going to have a soft landing with enough slack in the economy building up to bring down inflation.

View article: Click Here, Reuters, Yahoo! Finance, Investing.com

 

MRB on CNBC – February 19, 2024

Phillip Colmar spoke with CNBC reporter Hakyung Kim about the impact Megacap U.S. stocks are having on the global equity market, the increased concentration of risks, and alternative parts of the market investors should consider for diversification.

View article: Click Here, CNBC

 

MRB on Wealth Solutions Report – February 16, 2024

Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners was featured in this edition of the Wealth Management Solutions Report as the newest Investment Solutions Leader. Phillip shares market views for 2024 and outlines the impact for wealth managers.

View article: Click Here, Wealth Solutions Report

 

MRB on Investing.com – February 3, 2024

“I don’t think rate cuts are warranted and it could be a policy mistake to cut rates that will have intermediate-term inflationary consequences,” Phillip Colmar, global macro strategist at MRB Partners told Investing.com’s Yasin Ebrahim in a recent interview, following the Fed’s Jan. 31 decision to keep rates steady and downplay a March cut. 

View article: Click Here, Investing.com

 

MRB on P&I – February 2, 2024

Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, noted that “Fed Chair Powell went out of his way this week to suggest that disinflation and Fed rate cuts are independent of softer or below-trend economic growth,” he added. “However, today’s payroll release is problematic for the Fed.” Colmar added that the latest jobs numbers suggest that inflation will bottom out this year well above the Fed’s 2% target, limiting the amount of possible interest cuts.

View article: Click Here, Pensions & Investment

 

MRB on Kiplinger – February 2, 2024

“Fed Chair Powell went out of his way this week to suggest that disinflation and Fed rate cuts are independent of softer or below trend economic growth. However, today’s payroll release is problematic for the Fed, which has doubled down on ‘transitory.’ The underlying trend in core services inflation ex-shelter or supercore inflation (a major component of the core PCE basket) is driven by wage trends. The latest numbers suggest that inflation will bottom this year well above the Fed’s target, limiting the amount of rate cuts.” – Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners

View article: Click Here, Kiplinger

 

MRB on The Globe And Mail – January 12, 2024

Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners contributes to the “2024 In Charts” publication.

Canada has a widespread housing affordability crisis owing to sky-high home prices and the surge in mortgage rates. The Bank of Canada’s housing affordability index is now at its worst reading since the early 1980s.

View article: Click Here, The Globe And Mail

 

MRB on CNBC – January 10, 2024

“Right now, the market’s pretty quiet, but I don’t think it’ll be quiet all year,” said Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners. “We’ve fully priced this Goldilocks soft landing scenario. What’s next? It’s probably ‘no landing,’ which means the bond yields are probably not going to stay as anchored as they are, some of those rate cuts have come back out and then volatility comes back into the equity market … and then it’s not a buy-everything rally that we saw at the year end.”

View article: Click Here, CNBC

 

MRB on Reuters, Yahoo! Finance And Nasdaq – January 3, 2024

The recent dramatic easing in monetary policy is likely to result in a “no landing,” or continued above-trend growth that will limit how much the Fed can cut rates, said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners in New York. “All major asset classes, including equities, suggest that monetary conditions are plentiful.”

View article: Click Here, Reuters, Yahoo! Finance, Nasdaq

 

MRB on Business Insider – Oracles of Wall Street – December 17, 2023

Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner, was featured in Business Insider’s Oracles of Wall Street list for 2023! 

Colmar said Treasury yields would stay relatively calm for the first several months of the year — they did — and then managed to time the spike in yields impressively. The call for higher bond yields was tied in with his view the economy would avoid a recession this year, which he expressed in December 2022 and reiterated in May.

View article: Click Here, Business Insider

 

MRB on BARRON’S – December 8, 2023

Some investors believe that inflation will stay stickier than many market participants expect. They make a case for TIPS, or Treasury inflation-protected securities. Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners, doesn’t see inflation returning to the Fed’s target rate of 2% anytime soon. Instead, he sees it settling higher, with serious consequences for retirees on a fixed income. 

View article: Click Here, BARRON’S

 

MRB on ALM – December 6, 2023

Commercial real estate is tricky with different areas of uncertainty depending on geographic area and type, like residential versus office. “Both sides look terrible now in Canada” says Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. “Unfortunately, the pensions went into that and real estate’s in trouble.”

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Business Insider – November 28, 2023

Phillip Colmar, a global strategist at MRB Partners, also believes returns for the S&P 500 over the long-term will be lackluster given higher valuations. Over the next 10 years, his firm sees US stocks having a compound annual growth rate of around 1%, while non-US stocks will grow at around 4% per year.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on CNBC – November 27, 2023

Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global macro strategist at MRB Partners, similarly said that equities continue to be driven by the bond market. Stocks remain slightly overbought, he said, adding that the economy remains “reasonably resilient,” making it harder for future rate cuts to be justified.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB ON REUTERS & YAHOO FINANCE! – November 27, 2023

The market has been too eager to call the end of the bond bear market and the recent sell-off became overdone, said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners in New York. “The durability of the U.S. and global economy warns against betting that bond yields will continue to fall,” he said.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on MarketWatch, MorningStar and msn – October 25, 2023

MRB Partners Global Strategist Phillip Colmar spoke with MarketWatch reporter Frances Yue about why a bond yield consolidation is needed for equities, especially tech stocks.

View article: MarketWatch, MorningStar, msn

MRB on BNN Bloomberg – October 22, 2023

Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global macro strategist at MRB Partners, similarly said that equities continue to be driven by the bond market. Stocks remain slightly overbought, he said, adding that the economy remains “reasonably resilient,” making it harder for future rate cuts to be justified.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Yahoo! Finance, msn and Markets Insider – October 21, 2023

Other strategists have warned that there’s still a chance yields run higher. Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, predicted they could indeed breach 5.5% in 2024, and Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors, said a potential government shutdown in November could be an additional factor that pushes yields higher. 

View article: Yahoo! Finance, msn, Markets Insider

 

MRB on CNBC – October 12, 2023

“Every [CPI] print that comes in where it shows more stickiness chips away at the inherent belief we will eventually get to 2% inflation. We’re not going to 2% inflation, but the bond market still wants to believe we will or come close to it,” said Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. Equities continue to head south “as the market realizes that yields will move higher,” he said.

View article: CNBC, VettaFi ETF Trends

 

MRB on Markets Insider, Yahoo! Finance and msn – October 7, 2023

Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, predicted the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield could even breach 5.5% in 2024, saying the Fed previously suppressed longer-term yields with overly optimistic inflation views and low estimates for a neutral policy rate.

View article: Markets Insider, Yahoo! Finance, msn

 

MRB on Investing.com and Kalkine Media – October 6, 2023

Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner at MRB Partners, warned that the Canadian housing bubble will  inevitably burst. He cited the fact that the country has one of the biggest bubbles of all time. The surge in Canadian home prices happened as the Bank of Canada (BoC) left interest rates at near zero after the Global Finance Crisis (GFC).

View article: Investing.com, Kalkine Media

 

MRB on Gillett News – September 18, 2023

An analyst has expressed concerns that Canada’s housing market, which he describes as one of the largest housing bubbles ever, poses a significant risk to the country’s economy. Phillip Colmar, a partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, believes that if the housing bubble bursts, Canada could face a deeper recession than what has been forecasted.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB in Reuters – September 15, 2023

A resilient U.S. economy is the broader trend despite the rise in interest rates, said Phillip Colmar, global macro strategist at MRB Partners in New York.

“We think the underlying trend of U.S. inflation is with a 3% handle, not 2%, and without a recession you have no chance to get to 2%. The market is still coming to grips with that idea.” “If we don’t get interest rates high enough to cause a recession or to sustainably dampen growth, you don’t need rate cuts. So that pushes up yields”.

Reuters Article

MRB in The Globe and Mail (Op-ed) – September 13, 2023

Phillip Colmar is managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

Canada is facing a massive housing bubble after more than two decades of cheap money and lax lending standards. And with a widespread affordability crisis, the country is now atan escalating risk of a housing bust. Many Canadians maintain hope for a soft landing, but higher mortgage rates and softening employment conditions are a lethal combination.

Globe and Mail Op-ed (Paywall), Archived Version, Archive

MRB on National Post – September 6, 2023

“Canada is probably sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time,” says Phillip Colmar, partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. “House prices and income ratios are off the charts.”

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Toronto Star – August 29, 2023

Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners has analyzed housing bubbles across the globe and flagged Canada as potentially having the most concerning one.

View article: Toronto Star, Waterloo Record, Niagara Falls Review, InsideHalton.com, Welland Tribune, ParrySound.com, Archive

 

MRB on Storeys – August 29, 2023

An international strategist is warning that Canada could be sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time.

“I’ve analyzed housing bubbles in the developed world and Canada’s really got a unique one to its own,” says Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on msn – August 29, 2023

Phillip Colmar, global strategist of MRB Partners, is concerned about the unprecedented levels of debt that could put several Canadian households at risk. The worst part for a housing bubble is when you have a credit bubble underneath it.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on DailyHive – August 29, 2023

“The worst part for the housing bubble is when you have a credit bubble underneath it, and the amount of Canadian leverage into the system versus income is pretty astronomical,” said Phillip Colmar, the Managing Partner of The Macro Research Board.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Malaysia Sun – August 25, 2023

“I think it’s a very narrowly focused market,” says Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, adding that just a few names are driving the entire market. “I do think if you’ve got a better growth backdrop and higher bond yields, it lends itself naturally to a broadening of the market. We saw some of that in recent weeks,” he said.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Yahoo! Finance – August 24, 2023

The U.S. economy is less interest rate-sensitive than it was in the past, said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners in New York. “This has been a year in transition where people had expected recession. They’ve been wrong-footed on that call,” he said. “We expected bond yields would break higher and hit new highs, which they have.”

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Forex Factory – August 24, 2023

The Canadian housing market is at high risk of unravelling, according to one expert. The level of debt that Canadians have taken on in comparison to their incomes has put many in a precarious position should mortgage rates continue to rise — which is likely says Phillip Colmar, managing partner at MRB Partners.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Canadian Mortgage Professional – August 24, 2023

The unprecedented high levels of debt that Canadians currently hold will place a significant number of households at risk, especially if mortgage rates continue to rise, according to Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on msn – August 24, 2023

In an interview with BNN Bloomberg,  Phillip Colmar, partner at Global Strategist at MRB Partners, notes that  “Canada is probably sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time”.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Investing.com – August 22, 2024

In an interview with BNN Bloomberg,  Phillip Colmar, partner at Global Strategist at MRB Partners, notes that  “Canada is probably sitting on the largest housing bubble of all time”. 

Colmar asserts that highly inflated home prices are a fallout of the easy money, low-interest rate policy instituted by the Bank of Canada since 2008. 

View article: Click Here, Investing.com

 

MRB on Barron’s – August 16, 2023

“I don’t think this level of yield will break the economy, so you’ll get a better entry point,” with a higher yield, says Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners, an investment strategy firm.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Kiplinger – August 10, 2023

“There is almost no chance that core inflation will fall back near the central bank’s 2% target absent a recession, and the latest economic data indicates the Fed did not provide that knock-out blow.” Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on CNBC – August 9, 2023

“The markets had run up a lot,” said Phillip Colmar, managing partner at MRB Partners. “It’s a bit of a wait-and-see, digestion phase.”

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Reuters – August 7, 2023

A U.S. economy growing more than expected has pushed aside fears of a recession, but rising bond yields pose a risk to equity investors, said Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners in New York.

“The bond market is coming back into the driver’s seat again,” he said, much as it was in 2022. “If the cost of capital isn’t the thing causing economic damage here, as everybody predicted and our framework suggests it isn’t, then it’s pretty hard to argue for rate cuts.”

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on CNN – July 26, 2023

“Where the market is mispriced is in expecting significant rate cuts next year. If anything, additional rate hikes will be required,” said Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners.

 

MRB on Investing.com – July 26, 2023

“This Fed meeting was about going for maximum flexibility, giving them the ability to do one more quarter-point hike, but not more than that,” Phillip Colmar, Global Strategist at MRB Partners told Investing.com’s Yasin Ebrahim in an interview Wednesday.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Bites – July 11, 2023

The banking crisis has affected the economy less than people appreciate, MRB – The Macro Research Board’s managing partner, global strategy, Phillip Colmar, tells Aerial View.

View episode: Click Here

 

MRB on MarketWatch And MorningStar – July 11, 2023

Still, “I think there’s some optimism about CPI coming in lower [than expected] this week,” said Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

View articles: MarketWatch and Morningstar

 

MRB on Bloomberg And Financial Advisor – June 30, 2023

However, the more important catalyst for growth stocks will be the direction of Treasury yields, according to Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

“The key to a broader participation in the stock rally will be where monetary policy is headed and its impact on bond yields,” Colmar said. If yields break out of their October highs, investors will start getting nervous about tech and growth stocks, he added.

View articles: Bloomberg and Financial Advisor

 

MRB on Bloomberg And Yahoo! Finance – June 22, 2023

“We’ve seen central banks say: ‘Oh, we haven’t done enough.’ They thought at the beginning of the year they had, and everybody thought we were going into recession, and now what we’re seeing is the data sequentially move away from that,” said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners. “If you’re not in a recession, it’s also really hard to get core inflation down because you need to weaken the employment sector in order to do so.”

View articles: Bloomberg and Yahoo! Finance

 

MRB on Kiplinger – June 14, 2023

As for the data the Federal Reserve is watching, “the latest inflation prints showed a further easing in price pressures, most notably at the headline level,” says Phillip Colmar, partner and global strategist of MRB Partners. This, he adds, “provided some flexibility for the Fed to take a breather at today’s meeting.”

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Bites – June 13, 2023

Many economists are overestimating the likelihood of a recession over the next year, Phillip Colmar, managing partner, global strategy at the MRB – The Macro Research Board, tells Aerial View. That’s because their base case assumes the 2010s represent equilibrium, he explains. Colmar says that was an outlier period in history, with the household and banking sectors deleveraging and some other drags after the housing bust. He says economists worry due to that base case that as the cost of capital rises it will hinder the world economy and therefore they’ve been underestimating where interest rate levels need to be.

View episode: Click Here

 

MRB on Dow Jones -MarketWatch – Morningstar And msn – June 7, 2023

“I think there’s a realization among central banks but also investors that the cost of capital wasn’t yet at the tipping point. We’re not sending the world economy into recession,” said Phillip Colmar, partner and global strategist at MRB Partners.

View articles: Dow Jones – MarketWatch – Morningstar – msn

 

MRB on The Wall Street Journal – June 6, 2023

“You’ve got a situation where people are pricing out a recession and the growth side of the equation is looking a little better, but we’ve had a big unwind of Fed rate-cut expectations for this year,” said Phillip Colmar, global strategist and partner at MRB Partners.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on CityWire – May 30, 2023

Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global macro strategist at MRB Partners, similarly said that equities continue to be driven by the bond market. Stocks remain slightly overbought, he said, adding that the economy remains “reasonably resilient,” making it harder for future rate cuts to be justified.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on MarketWatch – May 30, 2023

The balance between stocks and bonds also depends on where investors think the equilibrium Fed funds rate stands, according to Phillip Colmar, partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. The equilibrium Fed funds rate is the short-term interest rate consistent with full employment and stable inflation in the long run.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on The Tape Podcast – May 26, 2023

Ira Jersey, Chief US Interest Rate Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, and Anna Wong, Chief US Economist with Bloomberg Economics, join the show to discuss the debt ceiling. Michael McKee also joins the discussion. Phillip Colmar, Managing Partner and Global Strategist at MRB Partners, joins the program to talk about investments he likes and outlook for the markets.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on CNBC – May 23, 2023

“Certainly, the debt ceiling’s been weighing on investors,” said Phillip Colmar, partner and global strategist at MRB Partners. “It’s probably an 11th-hour deal, but if it is earlier than that, I think that would be encouraging.”

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Nasdaq – May 5, 2023

Investors will be monitoring U.S. banking sector developments very closely over the next several days, since the recent events caused a renewed selloff in bank stocks and more volatility across the markets, says Phillip Colmar, managing partner and global strategist at MRB Partners, an independent investment research firm.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Yahoo! Finance – May 5, 2023

“The wild card or caveat is always that banking systems are built or based on the trust of depositors. If that trust or confidence is questioned (potentially due to negative news headlines or sharp declines in share prices), a panic or frenzy can unfold where people start pulling their deposits at otherwise solid banks,” said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Money – May 5, 2023

What’s next for the stock market after the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hike? According to MRB Partners’ global strategist Phillip Colmar, investors will be closely monitoring the banking sector and inflation data. Read the full article by Money’s Mallika Mitra to learn more about the outlook for the market.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Bloomberg – May 5, 2023

“The wild card or caveat is always that banking systems are built or based on the trust of depositors. If that trust or confidence is questioned (potentially due to negative news headlines or sharp declines in share prices), a panic or frenzy can unfold where people start pulling their deposits at otherwise solid banks.”

After a volatile week for bank stocks, MRB Partners’ global strategist Phillip Colmar discussed several factors that impact deposits in reporter Emily Graffeo’s Bloomberg article.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on BizNews – December 7, 2022

The strategy is especially relevant in today’s market environment of global supply shocks in food and energy, excessive inflation, surging interest rates and bond yields and the increasing risk of recession. In an MRB Partners report titled “Dividends pay dividends in tough times” (July 26, 2022), Peter Perkins writes that “Dividends are more stable than earnings and provide a buffer for equities during periods of weakening global economic growth…

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on BizNews – November 24, 2022

MRB Partners states that “Euro area households, businesses and banks are in solid shape which provides a much greater foundation than a decade ago.” As a result, it forecasts the Eurozone will grow at a faster pace in the next decade than the last, with annual growth picking up from 0.9% from 2011-2021 to around 1.5%.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on CNBC – August 2, 2022

“After de-rating dramatically in the first-half of this year, many investors fear that a significant decline in corporate profits looms, signaling much more pain ahead for stock prices,” MRB said in a note Tuesday.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on China.org.cn – December 1, 2021

World oil demand growth in 2022 will remain strong, but supply will likely rise to meet it, said Mehran Nakhjavani, a partner of emerging markets with the MRB Partners on Tuesday.

Oil prices are more likely to return to a range of 60 dollars to 70 dollars per barrel next year, rather than to rise further from current elevated levels, said Nakhjavani in a research note.

View article: Click Here

 

MRB on Coindesk – November 16, 2021

“The crypto space has now become mildly overbought,” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, an investment research firm, said during an interview with CoinDesk. The chart below shows MRB’s cyclical momentum indicator, which has risen from oversold levels over the past month.

Espinosa said that risk-taking in cryptocurrencies has been heavily incentivized by extreme monetary and fiscal stimulus. This could mean cryptocurrencies have further room to rise and eventually reach extreme overbought levels.

For now, “I believe that until real interest rates become restrictive, the recent rally in this speculative space has legs,” Espinosa said.

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MRB on Coindesk – October 1, 2021

“The challenge for this speculative space is there remain too many macro headwinds to be resolved,” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, said in an interview with CoinDesk.

Espinosa said the global regulatory crackdown is still evolving. Outside of China, U.S. and European authorities may enact stricter measures that could handicap crypto prices by making it harder for users to exchange crypto for fiat currencies, according to Espinosa.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – September 25, 2021

The MRB Partners on Thursday confirmed an overweight rating on Chinese stocks within an emerging market and global equity portfolio within the next six to 12 months, said Mehran Nakhjavani, a partner of emerging markets with the MRB Partners.

The confirmation is based on domestic investor positioning support, oversold conditions and likely policy announcements that will provide monetary and fiscal policy cushions, Nakhjavani said.

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MRB on Yahoo! Finance – August 20, 2021

Several analysts noted that extreme overbought conditions have unwound since April, which is providing support for the crypto rally.

“Right now, bitcoin and other cryptos have enjoyed technical support (as they were becoming mildly oversold),” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, wrote in an email to CoinDesk.

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MRB on Coindesk – July 21, 2021

Another source of selling pressure across risk assets could be the reduction of government stimulus. “Too much stimulus breeds complacency,” MRB Partners wrote in a research note published on Friday.

MRB also noted widespread asset price inflation, which can lead to market imbalances similar to an episode in Japan in the 1980s that preceded a decade of low investment returns.

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MRB on Shine – July 15, 2021

China will continue to be a major contributor to global trade growth in the year ahead thanks to continued strength in the country’s domestic demand and import demand driven by robust export orders, Mehran Nakhjavani, partner of emerging markets with research firm MRB Partners, said in a recent note.

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MRB on Coindesk – June 23, 2021

“Any evidence that easy money is ending with a more hawkish stance by central banks will likely be a drag for speculative assets,” Santiago Espinosa, a strategist at MRB Partners, wrote in an email.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – June 18, 2021

“Based on the past two bitcoin cycles it suggests that the pandemic-induced crypto bull market may have come to an end, as this digital space is undergoing an unwinding of overbought price conditions,” said Santiago Espinosa, strategist of absolute return and foreign exchange with MRB Partners.

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MRB on Asian Private Banker – June 10, 2021

“Inflation will not be as ‘transitory’ as many investors believe, or the Fed hopes will be the case,” cautioned Phillip Colmar, global macro strategist at The Macro Research Board, a US-based independent global top-down research
firm.

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MRB on Coindesk – June 7, 2021

“Crypto is seen as a way of hedging against political turmoil, but it will need to reach critical mass. El Salvador’s move is unlikely to counter China’s given its relative size,” Santiago Espinosa, strategist at the independent investment research firm MRB, said in an interview.

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MRB on Kryptomoney – June 4, 2021

Thus, the question remains if this is the end of the Bitcoin-driven rally since the past year? New York-based MRB Partners, a boutique investment research firm believe that the rally in Bitcoin (BTC) since the previous year may be coming to an end.

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MRB on Coindesk – June 3, 2021

The rally in bitcoin (BTC) over the past year may be nearing an end, according to New York-based MRB Partners, a boutique investment research firm.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – March 21, 2021

U.S. cyclical sectors like energy, financials, industrials and materials have led the market higher since early November 2020 when positive vaccine news began to trickle out, said research firm MRB Partners on Friday.

MRB Partners said it expects cyclical sectors to continue to exert market leadership in the year ahead given the prospects of strong economic rebound once a large share of the population is inoculated.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – March 12, 2021

U.S. real GDP will grow at over 7.5 percent in 2021 by using a fairly conservative assumption regarding the size of the fiscal multiplier, said Prajakta Bhide, U.S. economy and policy strategist with MRB Partners, a New York-based private research firm, on Thursday.

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MRB on Xinhuanet – January 27, 2021

Such policies should be designed to reduce perceived downside risk to euro and the process will likely be gradual, said Peter Perkins, global strategist at MRB Partners on Tuesday.

“The main barriers are simply the absence of a unified banking or financial system across countries and the lack of political cohesion among the euro area member countries,” said Perkins.

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MRB on Money Morning – November 17, 2020

Here’s the funny thing: Economists can’t really agree on why it’s happening. It’s been the “upside surprise” of this pandemic year. MRB Partners’ Prajakta Bhide said it best: “It’s very unusual in a recession and needs to be further examined.”

The data Bhide shared seem to point to a boom that’s being driven by affluent buyers who’ve held onto their jobs during the pandemic wave of unemployment. The numbers point to big growth in the mid- to high-end housing tier, not so much in the “entry level” market, which hasn’t done as well.

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MRB on MPA – November 16, 2020

Prajakta Bhide said this is “very, very unusual in a recession and needs to be further examined.” The US Economy strategist at MacroResearchBoard (MRB) Partners said that the centrality of housing to the wider US economy usually means that when housing does well, the whole US economy is doing well.

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MRB on CNBC – November 12, 2020

Phillip Colmar, partner at MRB Partners, wrote in a note that the global economic recovery “will be sustained, but the V-shaped portion is over, and we have already transitioned to a slower pace of two-steps forward and one back.”

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